Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year. Tuesday this week because my flight was canceled and pushed to Monday this week. Yay!
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
(OFS) = Out For Season. They usually went under TJS or a similar procedure.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now, which can include non-prospects demoted mid-season. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash right now in 12-teamers.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
- Pitchers in the Top 40 (or so) move less drastically than those from 40-100. Yes, I’m reiterating the last bullet point because I get comments about it each week. The back-half of the List has a ton of movement constantly due to the nature of 12-team leagues. It’s in your best interest to get value now vs. holding onto a fringe arm as a stash for 10 days while you sit them against a tough offense. Yes, this means you’ll see dramatic +15/-20 moves a lot. It’s how it works.
- As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: Nathan Eovaldi (36), Reynaldo López (48), Justin Verlander (55)
- Removed: Tyler Glasnow (2), Hunter Greene (16), Grant Holmes (60)
- Net Change Inside Top 60: (–)
- Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
Tier 1 – The High-Fivers
These aces make you want to high-five every person you see.
1. Zack Wheeler – I know the others are more exciting, but Wheeler is the safest SP in baseball for the final six weeks.
2. Chris Sale – Sale is having a peak year, mostly with just being able to be healthy every dang week.
3. Blake Snell – Snell’s curveball has turned him into an absolute stud. Will it be there for six more weeks?
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by August.
4. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty is still phenomenal and there’s not much else to add. He’s lovely.
5. Michael King – King has turned into the QS darling we wanted him to be, looking like a mini-Wheeler with his consistency.
6. Bailey Ober – Ober’s first start of the season has masked his breakout campaign. The cutter/slider have improved while the velocity bump has solidified him as an ace.
7. Logan Gilbert – Gilbert’s slider has been absurd, while his four-seamer could be a touch better + his secondaries aren’t quite as consistent as I’d like. And he’s still great.
8. Cole Ragans – PEW PEW PEW. The velocity hasn’t returned and the cutter + slider can be better. Changeup and fastball command are doing wonderful things.
9. Aaron Nola – He’s had some ups and downs but he’s still even-year Nola. That curve is something else.
10. Dylan Cease – Oh look, the volatile mechanics hath returned. Yay. Expect more bliss than pain, of course.
11. Gerrit Cole – Cole hasn’t been given the AGA tag yet (he needs one more start per rules) but hot dang he deserves this rank above the four below.
12. Luis Castillo – He isn’t the stud of ole, but he’s a safe ace. Great strikeouts and win chance with good enough ratios.
13. Tarik Skubal – The Tigers just said they’ll be skipping a start and/or limiting workload for the rest of the year. It’s not fun at all and forces me to lower him outside the Top 10.
14. Paul Skenes – The Pirates could be limiting Skenes with his velocity falling a touch since his earlier outings. It pains me to lower him and Skubal, but fewer starts at this time of the year matters.
15. George Kirby – Kirby’s fastball approach is better and the slider has improved, even if it wasn’t at its best last time out.
16. Corbin Burnes – The cutter went 0/40 whiffs in his last start as he’s had to adapt his secondaries more than ever. Still awesome, but struggling to eclipse a 25% strikeout rate as a result.
17. Shota Imanaga – He isn’t as overwhelming as earlier in the season, but the sweeper and changeup additions have raised his floor.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
This is a weird one. They aren’t quite at AGA level yet, but they all have been that guy for you this year (for the most part). Maybe they force their way into Tier 2 at some point.
18. Max Fried – Fried hasn’t had a proper start of dominance since his return from the IL, though the skills suggest it’s around the corner.
19. Framber Valdez – Valdez is on an incredible run, fueled by an improved feel for his curveball. Here’s to hoping it lasts for the rest of the year, saving his season.
20. Logan Webb – Webb’s sweeper is far better as of late, turning him into the rock he was supposed to be.
21. Pablo López – López is still struggling a touch with his change and breakers, but the four-seamer and sinker are locked in. 96/97 mph on Sunday is awesome.
Tier 4 – The TV Protagonists
You can see them becoming stars…and also being canceled after just one season. So close to greatness and so close to dismay.
22. Sonny Gray – Gray had to endure the Dodgers and fine. His cutter and sweeper are working and it outlines success moving forward.
23. Ronel Blanco – Blanco’s arsenal has looked mortal over the last month, but the slider still gets results, while the fastball deftly avoids getting put into play.
24. Justin Steele – I wish I had more faith in Steele’s four-seamer command moving forward, as the pitch’s precision has undulated between starts.
25. Robbie Ray – I know how frustrating his execution was in his last two starts. Ray has had many moments of said frustration over the years and it has still worked out in his favor. Don’t forget – he had a two-strike count on seven of his eight baserunners in last week’s disaster. It was a game far closer to success than the line would suggest.
26. Bryan Woo – Woo has finally had a stretch of ~90 pitch outings and it’s given him space to breathe life into his secondaries. I’m a believer…as long as he avoids the IL.
27. Luis Gil – Should Gil be in Tier 4 or 6? I could be underestimating Gil’s potential fatigue after pitching so little in prior seasons, though his slider and four-seamer still confound batters. He has all the tools and I’m banking he’ll improve over time + earn Wins with the Yankee offense behind him.
28. Freddy Peralta – We just saw his velocity drop in his last start and I’m a bit scared. Like Gil, I could see Peralta near #40 instead of inside the Top 30 (These are the ace potential Tiers, he doesn’t fit in Tier 5) and I’m going to lean on track record to believe he’ll be his better self.
Tier 5 – Hard Rock Café
I don’t think they’ll get the AGA tag this year, but hot dang are they stable 6+ inning arms for all-around production.
29. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi’s changeup is still a problem to fix, but the Astros have pushed Kikuchi to lean more on four-seamers and sliders, which I am absolutely for.
30. Jeffrey Springs – Springs’ command has been fantastic since returning and I don’t think it will deteriorate moving forward. The bigger question is about his organization – will the Rays limit him?
31. Joe Musgrove – Musgrove looked great in his second outing. Fastballs sat near 94 mph (not 92.5!) and were delicately placed with his cutter and curve around the corners of the zone. I’m more encouraged than ever for the final six weeks of Musgrove. Where is that slider…
32. Carlos Rodón – I’m a little discouraged by Rodón’s drop in velocity + inability to find a dominant pitch in his last outing. Still, the stuff is there to be a solid Holly the rest of the way.
33. Zach Eflin – He’s been at his peak as of late, though it likely won’t stick moving forward. I’m awfully curious how he’ll endure his tough schedule ahead.
34. Tanner Bibee – Bibee revealed that he’s been pitching through shoulder pain, and yet, has still produced for fantasy squads. Welp, we keep starting him.
35. Seth Lugo – The spring shine has faded, leaving a solid Holly who is going through a rough stretch. Think the best version of Chris Bassitt.
36. Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi was able to make his start over the weekend and did so at 94/95 mph velocity. I hope he’s actually okay and we’ll get a clearer picture next time out.
Tier 6 – The Firecrackers
We can all see how these pitchers become aces, though they still have questions to answer before then.
37. Garrett Crochet – He went just four frames and 55 pitches…with nine strikeouts and 17 whiffs. I’m still in purgatory as that start helped despite the limited volume, with room for a whole lot more if the White Sox feel they’ve limited him enough. There’s still a chance he’s not destined for only four frames per start moving forward. I HAVE TO BELIEVE.
38. Spencer Schwellenbach – The man they call Mr. Crescendo (read: Just me) has been a CSW darling, catalyzed by an array of secondaries he locates effectively. I still believe his four-seamer can drop from 30-35% usage closer to 20%, helping limit potential damage in play. In other words, there’s more room to grow to bring his 4.04 ERA down to near 3.00 levels.
39. Ryan Pepiot – Pepiot returned from the IL and flashed all the things we wanted to see across 80 pitches. He should be good to go, though I need to see more than one start to be convinced he’s locked in for the stretch run.
40. Shane Baz – Baz’s curveball has been a fantastic addition to his slider, granting him two options to complement his four-seamer on a given night. The Rays could keep him on a relatively short leash, but with a strong four-seamer and at least one solid breaker, Baz is a consistent strong play.
41. Hunter Brown – Fine, Brown wasn’t able to hold onto the 97/98 mph velocity he flexed last week, though his vast selection of weapons has helped him survive start-to-start. I’m starting to embrace the chaos of each night, wondering what approach will work best each time he takes the mound. Will it be armside sinkers? Cutters and curves? High four-seamers? Who knows.
42. Taj Bradley – Bradley has had it rough and I blame his four-seamer’s rebellious nature. If he can get a bit more pitch separation between the elite heater and his splitter, the good times could return in a heartbeat.
Tier 7 – The Local Diner
This is the late-night food that’s always there for you. Their names never change and you should get something you enjoy.
43. Zebby Matthews – Oh snap! You love him that much, Nick? Yes and no. The #43 rank may startle you, but look around at the landscape – are any of these guys Locks for production? With that in mind, I see Zebby as a relatively safe arm despite containing the upside you’re looking for. His excellent grasp of three pitches during his debut has me encouraged for a strong floor in heaters/cutters/sliders, while there’s more whiffability to extract in his breakers. We didn’t see much of his curve or change in his debut, nor a major ability in high-heaters for whiffs, and I think they come out over time. Just be a little cautious with the Padres.
44. Bryce Miller – It was awfully fun to see Bryce with a legit splitter in his last outing and it’s awfully frustrating to decide if it’ll return or not moving forward. Splitters are finicky beasts…
45. Tobias Myers – Myers’ absurd two months should not be ignored as I’m starting to believe in his fastball/cutter approach that has helped him keep runs across the plate. His secondaries do well to add haze to his sequencing, making his elite iVB four-seamer surprise enough to keep the ratios down. Treat him like a Vargas Rule if you like
46. Brayan Bello – Are you starting to believe? Bello’s trifecta of sinker, slider, and change are all working in tandem and I just wish he didn’t have such a gauntlet of matchups. It’ll clear up eventually.
47. Zac Gallen – Gallen isn’t the man you want him to be and I’m not sure when we’ll get him back. In short, the four-seamer isn’t the called strike darling downstairs that opens the door for his curve and changeup. It’s a problem and I can’t shake the season-long thought that his 2023 mileage is starting to catch up to him.
48. Reynaldo López – He’s returning from the IL this week and while that is a Still ILL, we could be seeing the same dependable ReyLó once again. Or maybe Koufax is tired and wants to focus on someone else.
49. Nick Pivetta – I find it so hard to rank the Red Sox starters and Pivetta’s lack of cutter over the last two months is tough to overlook + his diminished velocity that forced him to miss a start is all kinds of concerning. And yet, his sweeper, curve, and heater should still perform well + that cutter could return. The strikeout potential is too dang high.
50. Kutter Crawford – Watching more of Crawford, what I see is an arm consistently fatigued around 60 pitches, creating worse mechanics in the fifth and sixth frames that lead to sudden declines in performance. Ahhhh, that explains the Careful, Icarus outings in the sixth! Does this mean Kutter is getting worn out from the starter’s workload? Fatigue is a standard feature of August.
Tier 8 – It’s Dangerous To Go Alone
Your last bastion of safety if you don’t want to endure the world of streaming. You see them rostered and dropped across all your leagues constantly.
51. Kevin Gausman – Gausman is still struggling to earn whiffs on his splitter and it makes me so anxious each time he pitches.
52. Clayton Kershaw – He’s not TATIAGA with just two strikeouts in his last outing, but the slider is still doing its best to prevent punishment and that’s a cool thing.
53. Cristopher Sánchez – I think we like Sánchez? He has CGSHO potential, but his changeup and sinker can be floated over the plate at times and cause a boatload of punishment in a flash. Like a mini-Valdez, really.
54. Tyler Anderson – Anderson’s changeup is fantastic and he just got smacked by the Blue Jays as they sold out for the high four-seamers. He’ll have to adjust and I’m sure he will.
55. Justin Verlander – Hey, he’s actually back this week! I think! Pretty sure! Treat it like a Still ILL and we’ll take it from there.
56. Gavin Williams – I think Williams’ last start was mostly a product of an atrocious number of foul balls off his heater, preventing him from putting batters away and allowing them to see easier-to-hit pitches in longer at-bats. Foul balls are noisy and I’d continue to rely on Williams’ strong fastball foundation + decent secondaries.
57. Brandon Pfaadt – Pfaadt is looking like his October self with some of the best command he’s had all year. Ride this rhythm as far as it’ll take us.
Tier 9 – The Wobbly Guardrails
We’re at the edge of The Cliff where it’s heavily in your interest to grab guys who have the potential to lock themselves firmly inside the Top 40/50 SP for the season.
58. Nick Lodolo – Lodolo looked rough in his last outing, but is that a true death sentence? The four-seamer still messes up RHB with absurd horizontal movement, while the curve and change are still great secondaries. I’d hold on, especially with the high strikeout ability.
59. Ryne Nelson – But Nick! They’re gonna remove him from the rotation! Are they actually going to do it? All I’ve seen is a quote from the manager suggesting they don’t want to do a six-man, but how can the Diamondbacks afford to hold back Nelson during a peak run with over 20″ of iVB in his last start?! That was because it was in the Trop that adds and extra 1.5 inches of vertical movement. THAT’S STILL 18.5 INCHES OF VERT. Anyway, I see The Bear and his inconsistent nature and I just can’t believe Nelson is getting moved to the pen. I’d take the chance he continues starting.
60. Tanner Houck – Houck is awfully frustrating. The breaker found strikes far more in his last start, but his overall feel for his slider/sinker/splitter approach has been off for a good while. The schedule has done him no favors and while he’s survived, he’s not done so in a convincing manner. I hope to regret this one in future weeks.
61. Brady Singer – I’m not the biggest Singer fan (he’s the same guy he’s always been as a Cherry Bomb), but it’s been working more this year than usual. Let’s be happy he broke that three-start trend of 13 ER with a solid performance over the weekend.
Tier 10 – It’s Dangerous To Go Alone
Your last bastion of safety if you don’t want to endure the world of streaming. You see them rostered and dropped across all your leagues constantly.
62. Eduardo Rodriguez – Rodriguez looks like he’s in a good place with his arsenal and has a solid team behind him.
63. Cody Bradford – Bradford has a luscious schedule + his fastball/change command is on point. Love guys with elite extension and precision like him.
64. Chris Bassitt – It’s Bassitt. You know what you’re chasing here.
65. Nestor Cortes – Cortes is a solid Win chance arm with the upside of a legit strikeout game, too.
66. Gavin Stone – I want to believe that Stone’s velocity can stay 95/96 mph with a legit slider to pair with his change. Please leave the barren wasteland of the sub 20% strikeout arms…
67. Merrill Kelly – Kelly’s Sunday performance wasn’t terrible, but came with a drop in velocity and little dominance with his changeup and four-seamer. I’m a little worried he’s not healthy yet.
68. Martín Pérez – Pérez has had a great run, but the tougher matchups are coming and I’m not sure if he’ll keep the success flowing.
Tier 11 – The Glitter In The Grass
Here are the shiny toys you may want to gravitate toward instead of settling for an SP who doesn’t carry a whole lot of upside.
69. JP Sears – Sears has returned a 17%+ SwStr rate on his four-seamer in each of his last four starts, including 14/50 whiffs on Sunday. Oh snap.
70. Bobby Miller – NICK. GIVE. IT. UP. Hey, it’s the 70s. The guys who are often on your waiver wire and rarely have any sort of legit upside for the Top 30. Miller and Buehler have that…even if we all know it’s not likely for it to appear in his next start. It’s a tough challenge to weigh that massive ceiling (that some don’t believe exists at all and that’s fair!) with safer production on the lower end. Do whatever you want, it’s why I put these guys into tiers. Personally, I think his stuff is too dang good to play in the mud for much longer and the Dodgers need the innings now.
71. Walker Buehler – Same goes for you, Buehler. I liked the cutter we saw last time, can you figure out the rest, too?
72. David Festa – Festa’s four-seamer and change are a solid foundation and I think there’s more to squeeze out of his slider.
73. Bowden Francis – Three starts of at least seven strikeouts, with his last outing looking strongest with four-seamers upstairs (at 93 mph and questionable shape…) + splitters effectively placed underneath. I’m not incredibly confident it’ll last, but it’s the Angels next. Worth a shot.
74. Spencer Arrighetti – With Verlander expected back on Wednesday, it lines up Arrighetti for the Orioles + Phillies in his next two starts, which I’m not interested in at all. It’s not hard to grasp how ‘The Pasta Pirate” could rack up the strikeouts, but he’s not a command pitcher. We saw a peak and we’re still waiting for the plateau.
75. Edward Cabrera – He’s a Cherry Bomb who could suddenly find that tweak to be consistent. I think. I hope.
76. Jake Irvin – Irvin didn’t pitch terribly against the Phillies and I wonder if he gets better results on the curve and four-seamer when facing a Riley-less Atlanta offense.
77. Andrew Abbott – Abbott is leaning into the BSB and for once, I can understand the path to legitimacy. Just don’t be so dang wild with the high heater next time, k thx.
78. Charlie Morton – He’s a Cherry Bomb. At least his curve has been better as of late, but it can go away just like that.
79. Matthew Boyd – The ideal of Boyd has always been “94 mph up, changeup armside, slider goveside” and we never saw it come to fruition before getting hurt. Now that he’s back, his changeup is looking real, but the fastball is sub 93 mph and now he gets the Yankees. Maybe he pulls it off there and makes us all pay attention real fast.
Tier 12 – Tennis Partners
You’re down to play Tennis. You’ve always wanted to! And now you’re linked at the hip…but you don’t know if you’re actually going to enjoy playing doubles with them.
80. Ben Lively – Are you a believer in Lively? He just had another routineBailey Special and could be falling into the realm of Vargas Rule once again. Kinda bonkers, I know.
81. Mitch Keller – He gets a long leash, but I just don’t trust the guy to maintain a productive ERA moving forward. There’s too much variance.
82. Luis Severino – Severino has his flashes of dominance, though it’s more reliant on matchup than I’d like it to be. At least he’s 96+ with a cutter and sweeper he trusts. It’s the best version of Severino I’ve seen all year.
83. Sean Manaea – Manaea is a strange one with his high sinker working well most of the time, but his secondaries showing up whenever they dang well feel like it.
84. Marcus Stroman – He’s a play for Wins. Good luck.
85. José Berríos – The breaker has improved plenty as of late as he’s taken advantage of weak clubs. He’s The Great Undulator, which means it’ll like fade at least one more time this year.
86. Michael Wacha – His changeup is legit and helps him float above the pool of waiver wire arms each week. Barely.
87. Michael Lorenzen – Lorenzen is all kinds of Toby with a long enough leash to steal Wins on the Royals.
88. Kyle Gibson – Ditto for Gibson as the Cardinals will continue to push and his sweeper/sinker/change as much as possible.
Tier 13 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos
More streaming options here, but a slight drop from the previous tier.
89. Osvaldo Bido – He’s been on a hot streak that I definitely don’t buy, but at least it’s the Rays up next.
90. Nick Martinez – I dig Martinez’s changeup and he gets the Jays next as he tries to take full advantage of his time in the rotation.
91. Jameson Taillon – Taillon will throw a whole lot of strikes and hope the Tigers aren’t a strong enough offense to deal with it.
92. Erick Fedde – He’ll get the Brewers and Twins this week and I’m pretty meh on Fedde’s all-around ability. Go for it if you’re chasing Wins or QS.
93. Jordan Montgomery – It’s Miami up next and I can’t help but wonder if JorMont is kicked out of the rotation if it goes poorly. It shouldn’t, but that’s a possible outcome.
94. DJ Herz – We have a mini-tier of young strikeout Cherry Bomb types and Herz gets Rockie Road + a weakened Atlanta offense. Let’s hope the four-seamer and secondaries are doing their part.
95. Kyle Harrison – It’s the White Sox and a date in Seattle for Harrison. Surely that equates to at least ten strikeouts for the week, right?
96. Hayden Birdsong – Birdsong’s overall command is not what we want it to be, though I want to believe there’s a tweak to get his release timing fixed to keep his breakers and four-seamer consistently in the zone.
97. Colin Rea – Rea just rebounded and could be returning to Vargas Rule stature with a date against Oakland up next.
98. Frankie Montas – I don’t love Montas, but he has thrown harder with decent cutter feel + it’s the Cardinals & Athletics up next. That could work…?
99. Andrew Heaney – Heaney hasn’t been a guy to chase lately, but the Pirates could be the first step toward recovery.
100. Joey Estes – Estes generally has precise heaters and gets the Rays up next. Not the worst stream out there.
Honorable Mentions
I want to make sure we’re on the same page about every pitcher slated to start for the week ahead. This is in alphabetical team order, not rank. If a pitcher has a rotation spot and is not listed here, it’s an error on my part after crafting The List and forgetting to add them here. Feel free to let me know if someone isn’t listed here and I’ll add them – it’s usually a fringe guy I removed and lapsed when ensuring they had a blurb!
Grant Holmes (ATL) – He’s out of the rotation with the return of ReyLó and I’m kinda annoyed by it. He was so good. However, it would have been the Phillies next anyway, which isn’t a start I’d go after. Maybe he finds a way to return for the Nationals over the weekend…
Albert Suárez (BAL) – It’s been a great three-start run, but it’s the Astros next + possibly the Dodgers after. Noooope
Cade Povich (BAL) – Is this a six-man rotation? If it is, Povich doesn’t have a good schedule ahead to make the chance it’s not worthwhile.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – You never know what he’ll have on a given night.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) – He doesn’t get the matchups you’re looking for, nor has he flexed a proper ceiling.
Cooper Criswell (BOS) – He’s stepping in for Boston and is absolutely not worth your time.
Javier Assad (CHC) – I can see how Assad could become a reliable arm once again. He’s not there yet. Almost.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – He just had a solid outing and yet I’m not interested.
Chris Flexen (CHW) – There are days that he’s FLEXEN AT THE BEACH and I need to see him getting a sunburn before I believe it.
Davis Martin (CHW) – He tossed some great changeups against the Yankees and it’s possible there’s some magic left, but the upside isn’t high enough.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW) – He’s an interesting dart throw if you’re chasing a QS with a two-step this week. It’s just so….meh.
Ky Bush (CHW) – He came through against the Astros, but the skills aren’t good enough to suggest it was anything more than a Birthday Party.
Carson Spiers (CIN) – Spiers isn’t bad, just not doing enough to roster right now.
MYSTERY REDS PITCHER (CIN) – I legit don’t know who’s starting for the Reds in a few hours after I publish this article, but don’t start him…? If it’s Julian Aguiar, I guess I can say spec add with the potential of starting against the Pirates…He’s 94 mph sinkers + sliders, curves, and changeups that don’t carry the most whiffability.
Alex Cobb (CLE) – He returned and didn’t have his splitter cooking. We need that splitty or we’re out.
Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.
Bradley Blalock (COL) – COL story, bro.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.
Kyle Freeland (COL) – COL story, bro.
Tanner Gordon (COL) – COL story, bro.
Brant Hurter (DET) – A southpaw who could turn into a Toby someday. Decent changes with sinker/sweeper.
Bryan Sammons (DET) – Also a southpaw who could turn into a Toby someday. Four-seamer has earned more whiffs than we should expect, with a cutter and sweeper, too. Both these guys are awfully meeeeh but are generally opened for, making them a possible add if you’re in a max-start league.
Keider Montero (DET) – Just a little too questionable to put on The List this week, even if he survived last week. It’s just not enough.
Kenta Maeda (DET) – He’s been a bit better in the pen and with an opener, but I question if the slider can continue to get the same results.
Carson Fulmer (LAA) – Has the secondaries to be a decent streamer.
Griffin Canning (LAA) – Canning is too dang hittable y’all.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) – He’s a sinkerballer who can shock you with six frames out of nowhere if he those grounders find gloves.
Reid Detmers (LAA) – Wait, is Detmers coming back up to replace Soriano? He did just fan eleven, but I’d be awfully hesitant to believe he’s in a stable rhythm again. Wait at least one outing here.
Adam Oller (MIA) – Ha! Didn’t expect to see you here. Good luck fella.
Max Meyer (MIA) – The slider is all Meyer has and it’s not elite enough to carry the full arsenal + the low Marlins win chance.
Roddery Muñoz (MIA) – They could be calling him back up for the Diamondbacks and I have no interest in that.
Valente Bellozo (MIA) – He’s had some moments…? It’s a BABIP-heavy game that needs precision. Blegh.
Aaron Civale (MIL) – I really miss the days of Civale getting good pitch separation. It’s not a terrible matchup against the Cardinals this week, but I don’t trust the breakers to show up.
DL Hall (MIL) – He showed up for a moment then faded into the minors…
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – Feels weird removing him after having a great start, I know. Thing is, he gets @SDP this week and it’s not a start I’d recommend. I don’t consider SWR a guy to stash through a bench in a 12-teamer. Stream that spot instead.
David Peterson (NYM) – The matchups are too rough this week and he’s not worth the stash.
Jose Quintana (NYM) – Ditto for Quintana, even if his command suggested better results against the Athletics.
Paul Blackburn (NYM) – He did well against Miami as he should. Now it’s San Diego and that ain’t it.
Will Warren (NYY) – Back to the minors. Maybe of interest in the future?
Joe Boyle (OAK) – He’s back! And I don’t believe his command is fixed! Yay!
Mitch Spence (OAK) – He’s not the worst stream there, but not a needle-pushing arm. Only consider for desperate times or against the worst offenses….like the Rays this week. Nearly missed the cut.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – Ranger could be returning this week to face the Royals in a Still ILL scenario. Let’s hope the changeup comes back with him to give us confidence for next week.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – He’s not worth your time. Seriously.
Tyler Phillips (PHI) – Out of the rotation with Walker back. I don’t think we’d be interested even if he were still around.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – I really considered adding Falter against the Reds away from Cincinnati. It’s a decent stream but not as good as the other options. A near miss this week for the second straight outing.
Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) – Despite enduring Samulski’s inevitable wrath during the OTC Podcast, Ortiz doesn’t demand rostership with the Rangers up ahead. But he’s been great! I need to hold a guy like him! Nah y’all. There are so many low-rostered arms with good matchups every week. Ortiz doesn’t push the needle enough.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Yu Darvish (SDP) – He’s been absent with a personal matter for weeks and I hope everything is alright. We’re in the dark as to when he returns – at this point, I’m sure he needs a rehab start or two before then. If you’re stashing him, I’d consider other options. There’s only so much time left.
Andre Pallante (STL) – He survived against the Dodgers (how?!) and is likely out with Lynn returning.
Lance Lynn (STL) – Is he returning this week and pushing Pallante out of the rotation? Definitely ignore him if he does.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – I was considering Mikolas as a decent volume arm for points or QS leagues, but he just demolished any confidence we had in him. Can’t chance it. But he just did well against Atlanta! Ehhhh, still don’t want to chance it.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) – It doesn’t look like the Rays are going to use him as a proper starter. Get excited for 2025 instead.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – He’s the follower for Rasmussen’s starts and I can understand taking a shot here if you’re in need of volume in a max-start league. I still likely wouldn’t, but I understand it.
José Ureña (TEX) – Remember kids, If you roster José, Ureña boatload of trouble.
Tyler Mahle (TEX) – His velocity fell all the way down to 89.7 mph and that’s horrifying. Let’s wait.
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) – I think some of y’all would have wanted me to put Yariel on The List but I don’t think there’s enough there. He’s still limited to about 80 pitches and his fastballs/slider is pretty basic (that four-seamer has cut-action that is unbelievably good at limiting ICR…but will that stick?). It’s just not that great.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) – He’s REALLY too volatile and gets the Phillies. Seriously, down to 94/95 mph?! You were sitting 97 mph in April and May. Poor fella.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) – He’s not worth the hold through a start against the Phillies.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) – This isn’t working out. Shocking, I know. At least he’s experimenting…? But the cutter is gone. WHY IS THE CUTTER ALWAYS GONE?!
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
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| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack WheelerT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Chris Sale | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 3 | Blake Snell | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 4 | Jack FlahertyT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 5 | Michael King | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 6 | Bailey Ober | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +7 |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +2 |
| 8 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 10 | Dylan Cease | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 11 | Gerrit Cole | Ace Potential Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +8 |
| 12 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 13 | Tarik Skubal | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -10 |
| 14 | Paul Skenes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -9 |
| 15 | George Kirby | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -1 |
| 16 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 17 | Shota Imanaga | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 18 | Max FriedT3 | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 19 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +12 |
| 20 | Logan Webb | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +10 |
| 21 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 22 | Sonny GrayT4 | Holly Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 23 | Ronel Blanco | Holly Wins Bonus | +4 |
| 24 | Justin Steele | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 25 | Robbie Ray | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 26 | Bryan Woo | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +10 |
| 27 | Luis Gil | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 28 | Freddy Peralta | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 29 | Yusei KikuchiT5 | Holly Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 30 | Jeffrey Springs | Holly Ratio Focused | +15 |
| 31 | Joe Musgrove | Holly Ratio Focused | +17 |
| 32 | Carlos Rodón | Holly Wins Bonus | -6 |
| 33 | Zach Eflin | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 34 | Tanner Bibee | Holly Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +5 |
| 35 | Seth Lugo | Holly Quality Starts | -7 |
| 36 | Nathan Eovaldi | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +UR |
| 37 | Garrett CrochetT6 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 38 | Spencer Schwellenbach | Ace Potential Team Context Effect | - |
| 39 | Ryan Pepiot | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 40 | Shane Baz | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 41 | Hunter Brown | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 42 | Taj Bradley | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -19 |
| 43 | Zebby MatthewsT7 | Holly Strikeout Upside | +14 |
| 44 | Bryce Miller | Holly Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 45 | Tobias Myers | Holly Ratio Focused | +5 |
| 46 | Brayan Bello | Holly Quality Starts | +7 |
| 47 | Zac Gallen | Holly Quality Starts | -10 |
| 48 | Reynaldo López | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +UR |
| 49 | Nick Pivetta | Holly Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 50 | Kutter Crawford | Holly Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 51 | Kevin GausmanT8 | Holly Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 52 | Clayton Kershaw | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | - |
| 53 | Cristopher Sánchez | Holly Quality Starts | -6 |
| 54 | Tyler Anderson | Holly Quality Starts | -5 |
| 55 | Justin Verlander | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +UR |
| 56 | Gavin Williams | Holly Strikeout Upside | -12 |
| 57 | Brandon PfaadtT9 | Spice Girl Quality Starts | +11 |
| 58 | Nick Lodolo | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 59 | Ryne Nelson | Spice Girl Ratio Focused | +12 |
| 60 | Tanner Houck | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 61 | Brady Singer | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 62 | Eduardo RodriguezT10 | Toby Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +7 |
| 63 | Cody Bradford | Toby Quality Starts | +31 |
| 64 | Chris Bassitt | Toby Quality Starts | +1 |
| 65 | Nestor Cortes | Toby Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 66 | Gavin Stone | Toby Team Context Effect | +29 |
| 67 | Merrill Kelly | Toby Wins Bonus Injury Risk | -16 |
| 68 | Martín Pérez | Toby Quality Starts | +8 |
| 69 | JP SearsT11 | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 70 | Bobby Miller | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 71 | Walker Buehler | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | -16 |
| 72 | David Festa | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 73 | Bowden Francis | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +24 |
| 74 | Spencer Arrighetti | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -20 |
| 75 | Edward Cabrera | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -14 |
| 76 | Jake Irvin | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 77 | Andrew Abbott | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 78 | Charlie Morton | Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus | +20 |
| 79 | Matthew Boyd | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -5 |
| 80 | Ben LivelyT12 | Toby Ratio Focused | -3 |
| 81 | Mitch Keller | Toby Quality Starts | -14 |
| 82 | Luis Severino | Toby Strikeout Upside | - |
| 83 | Sean Manaea | Toby Wins Bonus | -13 |
| 84 | Marcus Stroman | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 85 | José Berríos | Toby Quality Starts | +3 |
| 86 | Michael Wacha | Toby Quality Starts | +1 |
| 87 | Michael Lorenzen | Toby Quality Starts | +UR |
| 88 | Kyle Gibson | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 89 | Osvaldo BidoT13 | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +10 |
| 90 | Nick Martinez | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 91 | Jameson Taillon | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 92 | Erick Fedde | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -13 |
| 93 | Jordan Montgomery | Streaming Option Quality Starts Wins Bonus | -4 |
| 94 | DJ Herz | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 95 | Kyle Harrison | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 96 | Hayden Birdsong | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 97 | Colin Rea | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 98 | Frankie Montas Jr. | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 99 | Andrew Heaney | Streaming Option Wins Bonus Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 100 | Joey Estes | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
Labels Legend
I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one of three groups.
Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:
AGA = Aces gonna ace. My way of saying “This guy is dope in fantasy baseball and you trust him regardless of opponent moving forward.”
Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)
Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
Nick’s take on Houck is way overblown. There are a dozen or more starters hitting career highs in IP and struggling with fatigue but they’re fine? PL is a joke.
Case in point Gavin Stone. Nick was out all season on Stone, as recently as last week barely making the top 100. Now all of a sudden, after one start vs Seattle, he climbs 30 spots. Give. Me. A. Break.
Tier 8 and Tier 10 have the same name?
The drop of Skubal and Skenes in your rankings is the biggest overreaction I’ve seen from any baseball analyst all year.