Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
(OFS) = Out For Season. They usually went under TJS or a similar procedure.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
- Pitchers in the Top 40 (or so) move less drastically than those from 40-100. Yes, I’m reiterating the last bullet point because I get comments about it each week. The back-half of the List has a ton of movement constantly due to the nature of 12-team leagues. It’s in your best interest to get value now vs. holding onto a fringe arm as a stash for 10 days while you sit them against a tough offense. Yes, this means you’ll see dramatic +15/-20 moves a lot. It’s how it works.
- As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: Kyle Bradish (21), Framber Valdez (22),
- Removed: Jesús Luzardo (25), Blake Snell (34), Brayan Bello (40)
- Net Change Inside Top 60: (+1)
- Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
Tier 1 – The Remaining Aces
You know they are aces.
1. Corbin Burnes – AGA. The strikeouts aren’t quite there and that’s totally fine.
2. Zack Wheeler – AGA. His four-seamer is so dang good.
3. Tyler Glasnow – AGA. His slider was oddly not used much last time out…?
4. Freddy Peralta – AGA. That was a weird outing where his four-seamer was simply gone. I wouldn’t worry about it.
5. Luis Castillo – AGA. His last three starts have been bliss. The warm weather is here y’all.
6. Cole Ragans – AGA. His last two games were the .900 BABIP Orioles game + the muddy rain ridiculousness in Kansas City. Ignore them.
7. Tarik Skubal – AGA. Skubal’s four-seamer and sinker performance have been kinda weird lately…?
8. Pablo López – AGA. Yes, I know he’s been off. There isn’t a clear indication why and I wouldn’t do anything rash about it. He’ll figure it out.
9. George Kirby – AGA. He’s vaulted into the top tier after this weekend’s unreal strikeout performance, finally flexing absurd four-seamer whiffs. IT’S ABOUT TIME.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by June.
10. Logan Webb – AGA. He’s your sturdy ratios arm and that’s not going to change with his changeup at his holster.
11. Zac Gallen – AGA. Gallen left his game early with a cramp, we’re all good here.
12. Kevin Gausman – AGA. He survived the Dodgers, but he only had four splitter whiffs…? We’re not out of the woods yet.
13. Max Fried – AGA. I want to see Fried settle into his dominance before pushing him into the first tier.
14. Aaron Nola – AGA. His four-seamer is getting elevated more, though Nola’s success is more about landing his curve just under the zone more frequently.
15. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – AGA. Imagine how good he would be if he ELEVATED. HIS. FOUR-SEAMER.
16. Joe Ryan – AGA. Ryan has another gear to hit when the slider or sweeper or splitter become something legit.
17. Shota Imanaga – AGA. His four-seamer is sitting at the top of the zone beautifully. I wish I liked his slider more (or we saw it more in the first place), though his splitter is a gamechanger when he has it cooking…which is about half the time.
18. Grayson Rodriguez – AGA. Yes, even with his last outing. It’s not a death sentence, y’all, and he was killing it prior.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They don’t have the AGA tag and could earn it before June.
19. Logan Gilbert – Gilbert is close to his AGA tag and it’s thanks to a new cutter that is allowing him to keep batters off his four-seamer. I still wish he had better overall command, though, especially with his heater.
20. Jared Jones – Jones has been flirting with an AGA tag, but his last outing came not just with few punchouts, but a massive decline in velocity during the game. He has a habit of decelerating by his final frame, but never as low as 93.3 mph as it was Sunday.
21. Kyle Bradish – He’s back! And sadly a Still ILL after flexing just two slider whiffs in sub 80 pitches during his final rehab start.
22. Framber Valdez – Despite a clear Still ILL scenario as he pitched in super elevated Mexico City (significantly higher than Colorado!), Framber dominated, flexing a new slider that returned ten whiffs. Let’s hope that pitch sticks around, especially against RHB, taking the burden off his sinker.
23. Sonny Gray – Gray has done nothing but dominate since returning from the IL. It’s lovely watching his breakers dominate batters.
24. Zach Eflin – Eflin lost his AGA tag and I’m not sure he’ll get it back. He needs to harness his cutter and curve once again to demand a jump to Tier 2.
25. Chris Sale – Sale is a sturdy arm for a winning team with the potential to go bananas if his changeup can become what it once was.
26. Dylan Cease – We saw Cease struggle for the first time as a Padre and I wonder if we’ll see some adjustments to his pitch mix to help adapt better in future moments of duress. He has it in him.
27. Tanner Bibee – Bibee is doing a great job executing the BSB and while I’ll sit in my armchair and shout that his super steep four-seamer should be located low in the zone for called strikes instead of elevated (and getting clobbered), it’s clearly working for him thus far.
Tier 4 – Hard Rock Café
I don’t think they’ll get the AGA tag this year, but hot dang are they stable 6+ inning arms for all-around production. Paul Skenes would be near the bottom of this tier if called up today.
28. Bailey Ober – I don’t think Ober has another level to turn into an AGA, but his stability is massive for any fantasy team. Remember for next year – first starts are the least indicative of any during the season.
29. Ronel Blanco – Blanco had a rough game against the Nationals, then was brilliant in Mexico City. His changeup and slider are doing magical things as he’s become a staple of fantasy staffs everywhere.
30. Ryan Pepiot – Pepiot’s high four-seamer approach is clearly working. I’m a believer in his changeup + slider mix to support it and the Rays offense is sure to give him more Wins, right?
31. Justin Verlander – Verlander is back! I don’t think 25%+ strikeout ability is still there, but his four-seamer does a phenomenal job of earning outs and his slider, curve, and change are well spotted to be a solid Holly throughout the season.
32. Nathan Eovaldi – As long as he’s sitting ~95 mph, Eovaldi is going to help your fantasy squads.
33. Michael King – It’s been a rough go of it and you can point to two factors: A 31%+ HR/FB rate that is obviously not going to stick, and failure against LHB. He still does a great job against RHB and I’m banking on King making the right adjustments to take advantage of an arsenal that does more than those below him.
34. Joe Musgrove – Musgrove’s pitch metrics are oddly similar to his 2023 marks – he’s just allowing more hits than he should. Yes, I’m certainly scared and hope he’s able to rebound, but it didn’t feel right to lower him yet. His skills look to create better results moving forward than what we’ve seen thus far.
35. José Berríos – The only “stumble” for Berríos was the muddy rain game in Kansas City that lasted just five total frames.
36. Yusei Kikuchi – I absolutely dig how Kikuchi has been recently able to elevate his four-seamer. I am a touch worried that his slider is degrading, but I think that returns while the four-seamer dominates up-stairs.
37. Chris Bassitt – Yes, I know. It’s not been fun rostering Bassitt thus far. He’s also doing all the normal Bassitt things. I think from this moment forward, we’re going to see the guy we expected in February.
38. Nestor Cortes – Cortes has been consistently going deep into games with the best command he’s had since 2022. Throw in a winning ball club and some whiffs, and you have yourself some great stability on your roster.
39. Aaron Civale – Civale’s sweeper has been great and despite some hiccups, you should expect Civale to continue going six strong while flirting with a 25% strikeout rate. That’s a Holly.
Tier 5 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3. Bryan Woo would be in this tier.
40. Bryce Miller – It’s going to be a tough week for Miller, but this week is more about long-term success, and it’s hard to expect it at this point. He just doesn’t have the secondaries you want him to have.
41. Tanner Houck – He’s been hot and cold, finding the edges with his sinker and splitter one day, then sitting in the middle with everything on the next. His slider is always present, though, and that at least keeps his floor relatively high.
42. Reynaldo López – ReyLó has done nothing but succeed for Atlanta thus far, though a highly efficient curveball may not return the same elite OUT% as it has thus far. I hope he can keep it up when the schedule gets tougher.
43. Kutter Crawford – I’m still waiting for a start from Kutter that absolutely blows us away. His arsenal is fantastic on paper, but it’s still missing that “leader” pitch to seize the day and get batters on their heels.
44. MacKenzie Gore – He’s had a rough schedule and it’ll stay that tough with @TEX + TOR moving forward. That said, he just took down the Dodgers and Gore’s 97+ mph heater mixed with a legit curve, change, and slider outline a budding ace. The command is the biggest question mark, but it isn’t as far away as his contemporaries.
45. Garrett Crochet – Should I have him ranked lower? Is he just a Cherry Bomb? His latest start was shakier than the previous two (bad luck inning + tough lineup), where he failed to trust his slider. The stud we saw early in the year is still in there.
Tier 6 – Celebrating The Holly Days
This has stability among arms who are all kinds of fun. Gavin Williams would be here if activated today.
46. Cristopher Sánchez – His changeup is legit and I think there’s room to grow with his slider/cutter.
47. Jordan Montgomery – The Bear is safe and that’s fine. He’ll flirt with a strikeout-per-inning and likely end with a WHIP that doesn’t destroy you.
48. Marcus Stroman – Stroman finds his success not through the foundational sinker, but with one of his secondaries each game. His last start came with just a 10/25 slider strike rate – a clear anomaly that I’m hand-waving here.
49. Jordan Hicks – Hicks has created a lovely floor with sinkers rampaging across the zone with low ICR rates, and we finally saw his ceiling when his splitter showed up for a boatload of whiffs. He may have many starts with a low IPS given the questionable secondaries and his low strike rates, but the mix of good floor and lovely ceiling make him a solid Holly overall.
50. Ranger Suárez – This is the best Suárez has looked in a long time, featuring elite pitch separation and his best changeup. I’m skeptical it lasts for the full season (if even the next month in full), but who knows. The man is in rhythm and you have to believe in that more than those below.
51. Casey Mize – I see a pitcher coming back from TJS with a great four-seamer and improving slider + splitter. Grab him while you still can – the whiffs will come.
52. Reese Olson – Olson doesn’t have Mize’s four-seamer, but does have a great slider and changeup, while his sinker can be a catalyst for quick outs. As long as both secondaries are cruising, Olson will produce.
53. Jack Flaherty – Like Olson, Flaherty’s fastball is his weakness, as games can be decided by hitters taking advantage (or not) of his four-seamers over the plate. However, his low slider and curve are working wonders, making me believe the clunkers will end up becoming more rare than commonplace.
54. Carlos Rodón – I don’t think we’re going to suddenly see vintage Rodón appear this year. That said, even at 95 mph, Rodón can still be a strong arm, especially if he can replicate the slider whiffs he boasted over the weekend.
Tier 7 – The Wobbly Guardrails
We’re at the edge of the Cliff where it’s heavily in your interest to grab guys who have the potential to lock themselves firmly inside the Top 40/50 SP for the season.
55. Hunter Greene – He’s still a Cherry Bomb, though last game was brilliant with a ton of heaters landing upstairs. Do. That. ALWAYS.
56. Edward Cabrera – I’m still a believer in Cabrera, even after his failure last start. Oddly enough, it was due to more pitches in the zone than ideal, which is a great place to be. If Cabrera keeps the walks down all year, he’ll calibrate effectively to be a legit arm.
57. Nick Lodolo – The curve is great, the four-seamer & changeup are suspect. Cin City is a tough place to pitch and I go back-and-forth wondering if Lodolo helps or hurts your teams. Guess I’m drinking PBR with this HIPSTER.
Tier 8 – Thin Blankets
It’s a mini-tier of guys who don’t warm you like the soaring upside of Tier 7, but get the job done to go six full frames without devastation moreso than Tier 9.
58. Seth Lugo – You may want him in the sixth tier after his last effort with a ton of strikeouts, but I simply don’t like his arsenal as much as others. His sinker is overperforming against LHB, while I don’t think he dominates RHB enough with his slider & curve each recording sub 15% SwStr marks.
59. Spencer Turnbull – He’s still in the rotation. For now. I’d keep holding until it’s legit official that he’s out. They can’t keep Taijuan in here, can they?
60. Brandon Pfaadt – Pfaadt just fanned eleven on the back of sweepers and changeups, and despite my concerns against LHB, Pfaadt is still stable enough for six frames consistently on a winning team. Those strikeouts are the last piece that push him from Tier 10 to Tier 8.
61. John Means – He’s back! And has a lovely Win chance for the Orioles. Go after it and see what happens.
62. Clarke Schmidt – I trust Schmidt to get better with his cutter against LHB over time, while he absolutely DOMINATES right-handers with his entire repertoire.
Tier 9 – Plaid Shirts and a PBR
They could easily be anchors of your staff – both bad and good, with heavy HIPSTER risk. I personally don’t like having guys like these on my teams, but I recognize I was too harsh previously as I didn’t weigh the potential impact of it clicking high enough. Just be disciplined to move on if this doesn’t work early.
63. Trevor Rogers – I love the BSB Rogers has flexed lately and I’d jump at this one if he’s on your wire. See how this goes for a week and it could carry for a long time into the season.
64. Luis Gil – Yeah, this hasn’t panned out quite as well. That said, he threw too many strikes last time and I have to wonder if Gil is starting to make the adjustments…? It’s possible + the strikeout upside mixed with his Win potential pitching for the Yankees carries a higher ceiling than any below him. Up to you if you want to risk it.
65. Reid Detmers – The biggest worry I had during Detmers’ early success was his overall command. Sadly, we’ve seen it wobble recently and without slider precision or a consistent curve to land for a strike, his four-seamer can’t be the pitch we want it to be, even with extra iVB.
Tier 10 – Is This An Ace?
This is the butterfly meme where we’re staring out our teams long enough, hoping one of them can save us from our IL-riddled squads. Ride them as long as these Vargas Rule arms last.
66. Erick Fedde – Look, the dude just fanned 20 batters across two games. Just ride with him until he slows down, okay?
67. Keaton Winn – I don’t quite believe in Winn’s splitter focus and his lack of reliable slider, but sure, ride this one out.
68. Martín Pérez – He’s a Vargas Rule in every sense and as long as he has decent matchups, he stays on our teams.
69. Javier Assad – Assad doesn’t have a repertoire that speaks to long term production. That said, he’s locating well enough to get through 5+ with solid ratios as of late, and we’ll hold onto this for now.
70. Ben Lively – Lively has elite extension and has been able to locate his fastballs beautifully over his last three starts. He’s on a roll and we drop the moment it’s gone.
Tier 11 – I Don’t Want To Go Outside
These are Toby types but not as rock-solid as those in the upper tiers and you find yourself holding them in fear of what else is on the wire.
71. Braxton Garrett – He’s also back! Don’t expect the world from Garrett, but he has carried a decent strikeout rate in the past. Check to see if he’s in a groove with his slider and cutter, and pray the Miami offense can find a run or two.
72. Jameson Taillon – I was a believer in Taillon before his back injury and I’m hoping we see a far better performance this week against the Mets to flexes the full extent of his arsenal…not down the heart of the zone.
73. Michael Wacha – Wacha’s command has taken a step back lately, though we’ve seen him have it far more often than not. Feel free to move on in the short term, though.
74. Zack Littell – I’m not that impressed with the approach from Littell, which appears to be “lots of sliders over the plate and hope for the best”.
75. Dane Dunning – He just earned himself a Golden Goal and who knows, maybe that’s somewhat real. But we’ve seen this before from Dunning and it quickly dissipated. We sure have. Let’s hope it doesn’t right away this time.
76. Luis Severino – Severino’s four-seamer and cutter are decent, but it doesn’t spell high strikeouts, nor consistent dominance.
Tier 12 – The Mediocre Cheese AKA The Queso-so
Hey, strikeouts are hard to find and these guys can brings Ks, but are very so-so.
77. Hunter Brown – We know he has talent, but hot dang has it been tough to trust Brown. At least we’re two starts removed from his nightmare outing, right?
78. Mitchell Parker – We saw two absurd outings against the Dodgers + Astros, then he flounders against the Marlins, looking incredibly similar across his arsenal. It makes it seem like his first two starts were a product of surprise rather than raw skills.
79. Tobias Myers – I absolutely adore his four-seamer, which features elite iVB and sits at the top of the zone with ease. We’ve only seen two starts, with the later coming with worse precision, but you may have yourself a stable arm pitching for a decent Milwaukee crew.
80. José Soriano – Soriano’s biggest knock has been his command, and it got the better of him over the weekend. He should be able to rebound, but this may up being a Cherry Bomb you can’t depend on.
81. Gavin Stone – He still has a good Win chance, but without a great fastball or slider, Stone relies too heavily on his changeup’s peak to carry him 5+ frames. I don’t think a breakout is around the corner and you’re here mostly for the Wins.
82. Mitch Keller – He’s our Cherry Bomb poster boy. THROW MORE SWEEPERS AND CUTTERS.
83. Brady Singer – Singer has also made a name for himself as a Cherry Bomb, but without the arsenal depth of Keller.
84. Kyle Harrison – I dig that Harrison has expanded his arsenal to include changeups, but now that I don’t believe his four-seamer is all that special, I don’t see a path toward shedding his dreaded Cherry Bomb tag.
85. Triston McKenzie – The dude is pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow. Yes, he’s still kinda performing, but how can you possibly expect this to last?
86. Charlie Morton – You’re here for the Wins. You do you.
Tier 13 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos
Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.
87. Jose Quintana – He’s not in the best groove I’ve seen, though it’s two starts ahead against middling offenses.
88. José Buttó – I don’t think he carries an exceptional arsenal, but sure, it’s good enough and he’s boasted 16+ whiffs this year.
89. Jon Gray – His slider is great, the rest is not. He gets two starts including a date with the Nationals, and you can do worse than that.
90. Sean Manaea – Manaea is at least experimenting with his repertoire and I hope something clicks in a major way. He gets the Cubs this week and with their injured lineup, Manaea is a decent option.
91. Lance Lynn – Y’all know I don’t like Lynn, but he gets the CrySox this week.
92. Andrew Heaney – He’s done a great job with the BSB and nearly had a lovely stream against the Mariners before the longball struck. With WSN + @OAK up next, Heaney could go two-for-two with a pair of Wins.
93. Bailey Falter – It’s a two-step for a southpaw with elite extension on his four-seamer. I wish I could bank on his precision upstairs or his secondaries coming through, but it’s @OAK and Rockie Road. Gotta consider this.
94. Spencer Arrighetti – The Pasta Pirate has a chance to stick in this Astros rotation and I’m awfully curious if he can be his best self against the Guardians this week.
95. Paul Blackburn – He’s a streamer against weak teams only. He gets the Marlins. That’s fine.
96. Cooper Criswell – It’s two starts for Criswell against middling squads, though we’re a little skeptical of the Red Sox offense doing enough to support him + is Criswell allowed to go over 90 pitches?
97. Steven Matz – Matz has two starts and while I have little faith in his stuff, he always has a chance to locate well enough to produce. Not a high one, but enough to justify a two-step.
98. Ryan Weathers – Weathers gets the Athletics and despite floundering an opportunity against the Nationals, he still throws hard and features a decent changeup and slider.
99. Simeon Woods Richardson – SWR showed up and performed…okay against the CrySox. I’d expect him to have better command this time around and give you a solid stream this week.
100. Roddery Muñoz – It’s a two-step against Rockie Road and @OAK for a pitcher with a solid sinker. Don’t expect a ton of strikeouts, but this could very well work in your favor.
Honorable Mentions
You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else with a rotation spot this week. This is in team order, not rank. If a pitcher has a rotation spot and is not listed here, it’s an error on my part after crafting The List and forgetting to add them here. Feel free to let me know if someone isn’t listed here and I’ll add them – it’s usually a fringe guy I removed and lapsed when ensuring they had a blurb!
Albert Suárez (BAL) – Not the best start against Oakland + we expect him to be removed from the rotation once Bradish/Means return this week.
Cole Irvin (BAL) – He had a great start and is likely displaced by Means/Bradish. Womp womp.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – He earned 17 whiffs on four-seamers and cutters. I don’t buy that to happen often.
Josh Winckowski (BOS) – He tossed under 50 pitches in his last outing, and even if he were stretched out, production is highly suspect.
Chase Anderson (BOS) – Naaaaah. You don’t ned me.
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) – I’d rather chase a one-start streamer in a better matchup, even if we’re still in the dark about when/if Alek Manoah replaces Yariel.
Alek Manoah (TOR) – Does he get activated this week? Do we care? I wouldn’t go after it. Even if he does well, would you trust it?
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – If the Rays could actually score runs, maybe T-Lex can vulture some Wins for you.
Michael Soroka (CHW) – He could very well turn into a Toby as the year progresses. Right now, he doesn’t have the command to justify the low Win gamble.
Chris Flexen (CHW) – This ain’t the Toby you want as the White Sox are not going to Win many games this year. Meanwhile, Flexen will be climbing the mountain as he does everything possible to flirt with a 20% strikeout rate.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – His velocity is down and even against a mediocre team, I wouldn’t to chance it.
Logan Allen (CLE) – Logan may return to the List soon, but a tough matchup this week makes him not worthwhile at the moment.
Kenta Maeda (DET) – He’s a Cherry Bomb who simply hasn’t been sweet enough to justify the low floor.
Jonathan Bowlan (KCR) – He’s getting two starts and making his first start of the year for the Royals.
Chris Paddack (MIN) – The CrySox gave him a moment of bliss and now we move on.
Griffin Canning (LAA) – Velocity is down two ticks and he’s not missing enough bats.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Ditto, but slider and changeup instead.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a desperate streamer.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – His stuff is so good. His command is so bad. Don’t fall for guys who can’t locate (this is different than Snell, who misses with a purpose. Big difference than Boyle who literally aims for the middle of the plate with every pitch).
JP Sears (OAK) – He’s too volatile.
Ross Stripling (OAK) – Stripling doesn’t have enough upside.
Alex Wood (OAK) – This isn’t the life you want for your teams.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – He’s subbing in for the hurt Bryan Woo, sporting a sinker/slider/change approach. It can work, though Hancock doesn’t look fully warm for the season yet. I’d take this slow and consider him as a potential Toby.
Michael Lorenzen (TEX) – He’s a Toby, nothing more.
Bryce Elder (ATL) – It’s a Win chance. Take that as you want.
Adrian Houser (NYM) – It’s fastballs all day and sometimes it works.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor.
Jake Irvin (WSN) – He’s throwing a little harder and it’s still not a good fastball. His secondaries don’t do a whole lot either.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – Walker returned and it was terrible. He really shouldn’t be in this rotation.
Nick Martinez (CIN) – I hope he’s actually starting and throwing at least 40% changeups while axing the dang four-seamer now that he has a rotation spot back with Montas’ injury.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – I don’t trust his command enough.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) – He’s not earning whiffs and Cin City doesn’t help things.
Ben Brown (CHC) – Brown isn’t stretched out a ton + his four-seamer/curve are not elite.
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) – It’s just an effective sweeper and he isn’t going deep into games.
Colin Rea (MIL) – He looks to be starting for the Brewers and maybe that’s enough to warrant a stream here and there.
Joe Ross (MIL) – There is some desperate streamer value in here with his sinker/slider approach.
Bryse Wilson (MIL) – The Brewers are still rolling with Wilson. That doesn’t mean you have to, too.
Quinn Priester (PIT) – This can’t actually last, right? I’d give him one more start, which shouldn’t be as successful, before Skenes swoops in.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.
Kyle Gibson (STL) – Maybe he has the slider working on a given night as a desperate streaming option. At least he has the leash to go six.
Slade Cecconi (ARI) – He just had himself a solid outing that I don’t quite buy + it’s the Padres up next. If it were someone like the Marlins, I may have considered it.
Tommy Henry (ARI) – Henry has oddly been productive in about half of his starts, rooted in moments of rhythm with his arsenal. That’s not enough for me.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.
Ty Blach (COL) – COL story, bro.
Peter Lambert (COL) – COL story, bro.
Ryan Feltner (COL) – I heavily debated adding Feltner to the end with two great road matchups ahead, but the Win chance is low + his slider/change/heater just isn’t that great. Too much volatility without enough ceiling.
Landon Knack (LAD) – Some consideration here, but I don’t think the Dodgers let him go long + he’s mostly two-pitch. More of a reliever than SP in my book.
James Paxton (LAD) – We’re at the end of the rope for Paxton, with 93 mph velocity and worse command than at the start of the year.
Jhony Brito (SDP) – He’s getting a shot in the rotation. He’s not stretched out + is he even that great?
Matt Waldron (SDP) – There was some consideration here as the SP #5 for the Padres, but it’s possible he pairs with Jhony Brito + his stuff speaks to a potential Toby and not much else.
Daulton Jefferies (SFG) – Hey, there’s something kinda here…? Let’s hope a Toby appears in due time.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
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| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin BurnesT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 4 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 5 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 7 | Tarik Skubal | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 8 | Pablo López | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 9 | George Kirby | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 10 | Logan WebbT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -1 |
| 11 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 12 | Kevin Gausman | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 13 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk | - |
| 14 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 15 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 16 | Joe Ryan | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 17 | Shota Imanaga | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 18 | Grayson Rodriguez | Aces Gonna Ace Team Context Effect | -1 |
| 19 | Logan GilbertT3 | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +1 |
| 20 | Jared Jones | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 21 | Kyle Bradish | Ace Potential Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +UR |
| 22 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +UR |
| 23 | Sonny Gray | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | -1 |
| 24 | Zach Eflin | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -6 |
| 25 | Chris Sale | Ace Potential Wins Bonus Injury Risk | -2 |
| 26 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 27 | Tanner Bibee | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 28 | Bailey OberT4 | Holly Quality Starts | -2 |
| 29 | Ronel Blanco | Holly Team Context Effect | +15 |
| 30 | Ryan Pepiot | Holly Team Context Effect | +1 |
| 31 | Justin Verlander | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 32 | Nathan Eovaldi | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | -3 |
| 33 | Michael King | Holly Quality Starts | -6 |
| 34 | Joe Musgrove | Holly Quality Starts | -6 |
| 35 | José Berríos | Holly Quality Starts | +2 |
| 36 | Yusei Kikuchi | Holly Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 37 | Chris Bassitt | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 38 | Nestor Cortes | Holly Wins Bonus | - |
| 39 | Aaron Civale | Holly Team Context Effect | - |
| 40 | Bryce MillerT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 41 | Tanner Houck | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 42 | Reynaldo López | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +5 |
| 43 | Kutter Crawford | Holly Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 44 | MacKenzie Gore | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 45 | Garrett Crochet | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 46 | Cristopher SánchezT6 | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 47 | Jordan Montgomery | Holly Quality Starts | -4 |
| 48 | Marcus Stroman | Holly Quality Starts | +4 |
| 49 | Jordan Hicks | Holly Strikeout Upside | +12 |
| 50 | Ranger Suárez | Holly Wins Bonus | +23 |
| 51 | Casey Mize | Holly Quality Starts | -5 |
| 52 | Reese Olson | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 53 | Jack Flaherty | Holly Quality Starts | +1 |
| 54 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk | +4 |
| 55 | Hunter GreeneT7 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 56 | Edward Cabrera | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -8 |
| 57 | Nick Lodolo | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 58 | Seth LugoT8 | Holly Quality Starts | +12 |
| 59 | Spencer Turnbull | Holly Wins Bonus | +13 |
| 60 | Brandon Pfaadt | Holly Team Context Effect | +14 |
| 61 | John Means | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +UR |
| 62 | Clarke Schmidt | Holly Wins Bonus | +7 |
| 63 | Trevor RogersT9 | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 64 | Luis Gil | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -8 |
| 65 | Reid Detmers | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -16 |
| 66 | Erick FeddeT10 | Vargas Rule Quality Starts | +33 |
| 67 | Keaton Winn | Vargas Rule Ratio Focused | +23 |
| 68 | Martín Pérez | Vargas Rule Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +10 |
| 69 | Javier Assad | Vargas Rule Ratio Focused | +10 |
| 70 | Ben Lively | Vargas Rule Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 71 | Braxton GarrettT11 | Toby Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +UR |
| 72 | Jameson Taillon | Toby Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 73 | Michael Wacha | Toby Quality Starts | -6 |
| 74 | Zack Littell | Toby Quality Starts | -6 |
| 75 | Dane Dunning | Toby Team Context Effect | +13 |
| 76 | Luis Severino | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 77 | Hunter BrownT12 | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect | +3 |
| 78 | Mitchell Parker | Spice Girl Ratio Focused | -19 |
| 79 | Tobias Myers | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 80 | José Soriano | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -20 |
| 81 | Gavin Stone | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | -18 |
| 82 | Mitch Keller | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 83 | Brady Singer | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | -17 |
| 84 | Kyle Harrison | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 85 | Triston McKenzie | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -2 |
| 86 | Charlie Morton | Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus | -2 |
| 87 | Jose QuintanaT13 | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -2 |
| 88 | José Buttó | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | -11 |
| 89 | Jon Gray | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 90 | Sean Manaea | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +2 |
| 91 | Lance Lynn | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 92 | Andrew Heaney | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 93 | Bailey Falter | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 94 | Spencer Arrighetti | Streaming Option Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 95 | Paul Blackburn | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 96 | Cooper Criswell | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 97 | Steven Matz | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 98 | Ryan Weathers | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -33 |
| 99 | Simeon Woods Richardson | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 100 | Roddery Muñoz | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
Labels Legend
I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one three groups.
Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:
Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
Cashed Jared Jones in with Xander for Lindor. Fair deal?
Well, which is it with Lance Lynn?
Is he #91 in the top 100 or just an Honorable Mention guy?
I guess you forgot to take him out of HM when you made him #91.
Nobody’s perfect.
ECab over Lodolo? I like him but that’s pretty high – hope you are right.
Big fan of the site and it has helped my team’s pitching A LOT in a crazy unpredictable time.
A bit surprised to see Civale at number 39, though.
His numbers since he joined the Rays last season:
77.1 IP, 5.24 ERA, 1.345 WHIP
I get that there’s talent and potential there – his 10.7 K/9 rate with the Rays is certainly a positive.
But the K/9 rate isn’t good enough to offset the damage that the ERA and WHIP will do to your team ratios.