Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. This week’s title is in honor of the Fratty Pirate Ryan Yarbrough’s recent run of success since joining the Yankee rotation.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on June 2, are beginning to settle as we continue to get more data from teams’ offensive surges and slumps. Trending up in this update are Atlanta and Tampa Bay, each of whom have jumped two spots since last week. Atlanta’s lineup is looking healthier with Ronald Acuña Jr. back in the mix, and it’s no surprise to see the Rays living up to their reputation as analytic sleepers.
Trending downward are the A’s, who fell all the way from “Solid” to “Weak” in the most recent update, owing perhaps to their winless road trip last week; we’ll see if the week ahead facing the Twins and Orioles back in Sacramento bumps them back up in the eyes of the algorithm. We also saw both versions of the slumping Red Sox fall a tier, with the Fenway ‘Sox dropping from “Top” to “Solid” and the road ‘Sox falling from “Average” to “Weak.”
AL East
- The Orioles got a refreshing shot of CWS over the weekend, as they earned their first sweep of the season against the White Sox. Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Charlie Morton combined to post a laughable 19.2 IP, 20 Ks, and 1 ER over the three-game set. It’s easy enough to write that one off (and you should), but @SEA this week is a solid follow-up—especially for Tomoyuki Sugano, who should finish the week with a second start in Sacramento.
- Richard Fitts‘ return briefly pushed Hunter Dobbins to the bullpen, but Fitts’ 5 ER first-inning disaster on Monday prompted the Red Sox to promptly reverse that decision, as they optioned Fitts to Triple-A on Tuesday. This should solidify the Boston rotation in the short term, at least until Kutter Crawford is healthy (or some other catastrophe occurs). The best streaming bet moving forward is Lucas Giolito, who has posted quality results in his past two starts and is currently lined up to dodge the Yankees twice in June.
- It’s hard to overstate the rise of Ryan Yarbrough, who is now sporting a 2.08 ERA and 24/5 K/BB over 26 innings in five starts since joining the Yankee rotation. His rostership on Yahoo is up to 32%, and that may not even be high enough, with two matchups against the depleted Red Sox coming up. If he gets through that start in Fenway with numbers like these, we will have no choice but to climb aboard the pirate ship and sail into the open sea.
- It should be a delightful two-start week for Drew Rasmussen, as he earned his fourth straight win on Tuesday against the tier-three Rangers before welcoming the Marlins to town on Sunday. After that, the Rays embark on a tricky road trip to Boston and New York, which should be a good test for Shane Baz and his high-quality heater. In other news, Shane McClanahan is throwing his first bullpen session this week, which bodes well for his chances of returning to the fold later this summer—but they won’t hurry him, so don’t promise that IL slot to anyone else just yet.
- Bowden Francis looked great in his last start in Texas, but he got a major wake-up call against the Phillies on Tuesday, allowing six runs in less than two innings. The Jays have two matchups against the Phillies in the next two weeks, bookending a brutal stretch of 12 games in 12 days (9 on the road). The good news is that Spencer Turnbull completed his first rehab start at Triple-A over the weekend. Turnbull posted an impressive 1.78 ERA in seven starts for the Phillies last season before a lat strain ended his season. If he performs well enough to join the rotation in a few weeks, Eric Lauer is the most likely candidate to be replaced.
AL Central
- Jonathan Cannon and Shane Smith are both lined up for two-steps this week against Detroit and Kansas City, if you’re a thrill-seeker. Of the two, Smith is clearly preferable, especially against the Royals’ depth-challenged lineup. Adrian Houser has been a respectable fill-in arm for the Sawx, completing six innings in all three starts so far, but I wouldn’t recommend picking him up unless you’re in dire need of some strikeouts—that upcoming schedule is none too fun.
- The Guardians have a tough week ahead, as they head to Yankee Stadium before returning home to face the Astros. But things get much sunnier after that, as you should remind yourself, if you’re out there holding on to Gavin Williams and Luis L. Ortiz. Williams had one of his best starts of the season against the Angels on Sunday, striking out six in 6.2 innings with just three total baserunners allowed (two of them walks). He’s worth the roll against Houston, and that start in Seattle is looking awfully appealing.
- Eury Pérez made his final rehab start on Tuesday, which is great news for a Marlins staff that ranks bottom-five in MLB in just about every pitching stat that matters. He could be back as soon as next week in Pittsburgh, though Miami is likely to limit his pitch count at first. There isn’t an obvious corresponding move here, so they may just opt for a six-man rotation for the time being. Needless to say, if Pérez is still available on your waiver wire, stash him NOW.
NL West
