Expected SP Schedules Week 5-6: Sleepless in Seattle

Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!

Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations.

Inclement weather forced some postponements and doubleheaders this weekend, leaving some teams’ probable starters for this week a bit unclear. This primarily affected the Orioles, as the Guardians and Tigers called up spot starters for their 27th man on Saturday, and the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox all have off days this week. Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. Also, I made the decision to start the chart with the pitchers scheduled to pitch on Monday, April 28, to make it clearer which pitchers have two starts this week.

Remember the handy glossary for this article:

• (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
• (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
• ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.

And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings. There are a couple of notable changes here from the last edition of this article two weeks ago, including the Cubs moving into the top tier and the Phillies dropping down into the second tier. Houston has also dropped from the second tier to the fourth, a clear indication that they are not the fearsome Astros offense of old. Facing the Rockies in Coors may also be less meaningful than it has ever been due to the Rockies’ offensive woes, as even that is now considered an easier-than-average pitching matchup. As the season goes on, we will also be able to get a better sense of which lineups are much better against pitchers of one-handedness than the other. Sample sizes are small so far, but the Orioles rank among the league’s best offenses against righties, but the league’s worst against lefties. Despite this, they maintain their status as a top-tier offense overall, at least for now.

 

 

 

• Kyle Gibson has been building up his pitch count in the minors after reuniting with the pitching-needy Orioles shortly before Opening Day. Gibson did experience some minor back tightness in his High-A start on April 20, which is a bit concerning, but apparently he is good to go. Brandon Young has had two starts in place of the injured Zach Eflin, but he hasn’t done well enough to grab control of the spot (8.2 IP, 6 ER). Eflin could be back in a couple of weeks, but it’s unclear who he will replace. Only Tomoyuki Sugano’s rotation spot feels secure at the moment. These upcoming matchups are pretty soft aside from the Yankees, but it’s hard to be confident that Baltimore’s arms will take advantage.

• The Red Sox rotation continues to get stronger. Brayan Bello is back from the IL, and Lucas Giolito will return to a major league mound for the first time since 2023 in Toronto on Wednesday. Richard Fitts is on the mend from a pectoral strain, but he may have to be optioned when he returns if this entire unit remains healthy. The only arm I could see him replacing is Tanner Houck, as he continues to really struggle (7.58 ERA, 1.69 WHIP). Managers will enjoy two starts from Garrett Crochet this week and get to watch Giolito’s debut before considering him for next week’s two-step.

 

• The Yankees’ rotation will stay this way for some time, health permitting, as Marcus Stroman does not seem to be close to returning from his knee injury. Max Fried has stepped up and pitched like an ace in the absence of Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón has caught fire, with 13 scoreless innings and 17 strikeouts across his last two outings.

Rays’ Expected Starters

 

• Two weeks ago, I wrote about how tough the upcoming matchups were for Rays’ starters. Fortunately, they are almost through that stretch, but the formidable Yankees and Phillies lineups are still looming. Tampa’s schedule was front-loaded with home games because of summer rains, and it may be contributing to the struggles of Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot. On the other hand, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen haven’t had any issues.

 

• After a promising first two starts, regression hit Easton Lucas like a freight train. He began the year with 10.1 scoreless IP before allowing 14 ER in his next two outings and getting optioned. This has left a vacancy in Toronto’s rotation that may temporarily be filled by Paxton Schultz, who debuted in long relief on April 20 and struck out eight across 4.1 IP. Max Scherzer is slowly building up and could return as early as mid-May. Whoever does take that spot should have some pretty easy matchups coming up; the same can be said for pretty much every member of this rotation after the Boston series.

 

• Martin Pérez was unfortunately lost for the season and has been replaced in the rotation by Bryse Wilson. Though the outlook for this rotation is pretty bleak aside from Shane Smith, they will enjoy some easier matchups the next two weeks before being challenged in Great American Ball Park and Wrigley Field.

 

• Cleveland’s rotation remains the same as it was a couple of weeks ago. They brought up Doug Nikhazy for a spot start on Saturday, but he was the 27th man and won’t stick around. Gavin Williams (4.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and Tanner Bibee (5.19 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) both get two starts this week and will hopefully build on their strong outings against the Yankees and continue improving their mediocre season-long numbers.

• Keider Montero has been deployed three times as a spot starter for Detroit, including on Saturday as their 27th man for a doubleheader with Baltimore. Using Montero this week allowed them to skip Jackson Jobe’s start. Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson will enjoy an enticing two-step this week if the Tigers stick with their top five.

• The biggest concern in Kansas City is Cole Ragans, who was pulled from his most recent start after three innings with a groin strain. He was not immediately placed on the injured list, but I’m not 100% confident in him taking the mound for his next start. The Royals have swapped his rotation spot with Michael Lorenzen, presumably to give him some additional time to recover. Pitching prospect Noah Cameron could be recalled if Ragans needs an IL stint. He ranked 4th in our most recent edition of The Stash List.

• Pablo López returned from the IL on Friday with a solid outing against the Angels (5 IP, 2 ER). His activation prompted the demotion of David Festa, who only allowed two runs in his three starts but struggled to complete five innings, only doing so once. I remain hopeful that Festa or Zebby Matthews will replace Chris Paddack (6.45 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) in the rotation before the All-Star break.

• Hayden Wesneski (3.86 ERA) and Ryan Gusto (2.78 ERA) have excelled as injury replacements, but their rotation spots are not safe. Lance McCullers Jr. may return this weekend for the first time since 2022, and it would be in a very appealing matchup against the White Sox. McCullers Jr. could replace either Wesneski or Gusto even though Ronel Blanco (5.01 ERA) has been the team’s worst starter. The Astros have also gone with a 6-man rotation in recent seasons, so I would not rule that out.

• If you are rostering any Angels pitchers right now, you might want to be careful starting them after this week. An upcoming 16-game stretch against the Blue Jays, Orioles, Padres, Dodgers, and at the Athletics is brutal. For deeper QS formats, you could take a shot on Jack Kochanowicz this week, as he has two good matchups. Just don’t expect any strikeouts; he has a strikeout rate of 11.4% this year.

• Hogan Harris and Mitch Spence are the two most likely candidates to replace J.T. Ginn, who went on the 15-day IL on Saturday with elbow inflammation. Aside from the upcoming three-game series in Miami, some real challenges are on deck for this rotation, which has been anchored by Luis Severino (3.49 ERA). He is among the league leaders in innings pitched (38.2).

• The Mariners were dealt a devastating blow this past weekend, as Logan Gilbert was placed on the IL with an elbow flexor strain. Emerson Hancock may have secured a spot in the rotation after a strong outing in Fenway Park (6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K). It’s not clear who Seattle will slot into Gilbert’s spot until George Kirby’s return, which is probably at least a month away, but pitching prospect Logan Evans was recalled on Sunday to start against the Marlins, so he likely has the inside track. Luis F. Castillo is another option, but he struggled in two major league starts this year (7 IP, 7.71 ERA, 2.71 WHIP).

• Texas has a busy upcoming schedule, with only one off day. Kumar Rocker was placed on the 15-day IL on Thursday with shoulder impingement, but Jack Leiter returned from a blister issue on Sunday to replace him. Softer matchups loom on the horizon, but the next 10 games could be challenging. Patrick Corbin is somehow still hanging around and gets two starts this week, but I would steer clear.

• So much for the return of Spencer Strider! He pulled his hamstring and is back on the IL after one start. AJ Smith-Shawver last started in Triple-A on April 23, so his schedule lines up well to replace Strider. This rotation will have a relatively tough week against the Rockies and Dodgers before three straight series of softer matchups. It should provide Chris Sale (5.40 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) with a good opportunity to get back on track.

• Thoughts and prayers to Sandy Alcantara and Cal Quantrill, who have to face the Dodgers twice in their next two starts. To add insult to injury, Quantrill also gets the Cubs after that! This is a tough time to roster Marlins pitchers, but at least Max Meyer will face the White Sox before two starts against the Cubs, another top-tier offense. Ryan Weathers just started a rehab assignment and will likely replace Connor Gillispie (8.65 ERA) in about three weeks, assuming Gillispie is able to stick in the rotation until then. Eury Pérez pitched a scoreless inning in High-A on Saturday and could return in late May or early June.

• The league-leading Mets are staying busy and just keep winning. The returns of Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas Jr. are not imminent, so they will continue to roll with this unit, which has performed well. Through Saturday’s games, Mets’ starters lead the league by a wide margin in both ERA (2.28) and FIP (2.69). Griffin Canning and David Peterson will get two starts this week, and there are multiple really challenging matchups on the horizon for pretty much everyone besides Canning.

 

• This one is a bit confusing, as Ranger Suárez should be returning to the rotation this week, but his schedule doesn’t align with Taijuan Walker, who he is replacing. Suárez started on Sunday in Triple-A, so Walker should get one more start this week before moving to the bullpen. We are also keeping an eye out for news on Cristopher Sánchez, who left his last start after two innings with forearm soreness. Surprisingly, the Phillies don’t seem overly concerned about it, and it seems like Sánchez has a good chance to start on Wednesday.

• The Nationals continue to get surprisingly good production from this unit, especially MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker. Michael Soroka should replace Brad Lord soon, as he has already made multiple rehab starts.

• Things are finally starting to ease up for the Cubs, who have played more games against teams above .500 than any other team yet comfortably have a winning record themselves. Chicago’s starters will get a bunch of choice matchups these next four turns through the rotation. I’m especially happy for Matthew Boyd, whose first five matchups have been as follows: @ ARI, SDP, @ LAD, @ SDP, LAD. He impressed with a 2.54 ERA during that stretch, and hopefully, he can continue to stack strong starts against these softer opponents. Ben Brown and Colin Rea should avoid the Mets, so they have the best matchups of the bunch.

• Although seven games in Great American Ball Park isn’t an ideal week, this Reds rotation doesn’t have any great offenses on the horizon. Brady Singer gets the easiest matchups, with two bright greens against the Nationals and White Sox.

• Tobias Myers returned from the IL on Thursday. The unfortunate corresponding move was Logan Henderson, who flashed some really impressive stuff in his MLB debut (6 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks). Hopefully, Brandon Woodruff isn’t far behind Myers, but he experienced a lot of fatigue after throwing five scoreless innings in Triple-A on Thursday, so he may not return this week. Woodruff would likely take the place of Chad Patrick, who has been solid from a run prevention perspective (2.45 ERA) but has averaged less than five innings per start. Quinn Priester (3.79 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) also has options.

• Carmen Mlodzinski and Bailey Falter continue to hang on in Pittsburgh even though Bubba Chandler looks MLB-ready. Chandler is our top SP stash here at PL (and probably everywhere else). There are very few easy matchups coming up for the Buccos, and this week’s two-start should give us a good idea of whether Andrew Heaney (1.72 ERA, 0.77 WHIP) is actually experiencing a late-career resurgence or just a hot stretch.

• The Cardinals are rolling with a modified six-man rotation, which doesn’t fit neatly into this chart. Basically, they are using Steven Matz as a sixth starter occasionally to give their starters extra. Because there is a chance Matz may move into the rotation permanently and the Cardinals only have one off day in the next 17 days, I kept him listed here.

• Avert your eyes, owners of Arizona starters! These next two weeks are pretty much as tough as it gets, but at least you get the Giants on the road and Rockies at home afterwards. Two matchups against the Mets should help us figure out how concerned we should be about Corbin Burnes (4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and Zac Gallen (5.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).

• Bradley Blalock was recalled for a spot start on Sunday, but I don’t expect him to stick around in the rotation. Pitching prospect Chase Dollander is up and has taken a couple of turns through the rotation with uneven results (7.91 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 15.5% K-BB%).  I would only consider using him in deeper leagues or soft road matchups. He should be a nice source of strikeouts but with some real risk to your ratios.

• As always, the Dodgers are not fully healthy and are doing weird things with their rotation. Tyler Glasnow was removed from his start after one inning on Sunday with shoulder discomfort, and we nervously await an update on his status. Tony Gonsolin should be returning this week and will enter the rotation, but LA is still likely to continue using a 6-man. The Dodgers haven’t had a single SP pitch on four days of rest this year. Ben Casparius has been used as an opener/bulk reliever at times, including in relief of Glasnow on Sunday. We could see some more starts from Landon Knack and Bobby Miller, and Clayton Kershaw continues to target a late May return.

• The Padres’ light upcoming schedule gave them the flexibility to option fifth start Kyle Hart to Triple-A. The corresponding move was Ryan Bergert, who has been starting in the minors, but he could work out of the bullpen until a fifth starter is needed next week. Stephen Kolek has been starting in Triple-A and is another candidate, or they could just call Hart back up if the corresponding move is to place a player on the IL.

• No changes to this Giants rotation, which alternates between tough and easy matchups these next four turns. Jordan Hicks has the best projected schedule, and his velocity remains well up from last year, but he needs to get some outs to stay in the rotation. Hayden Birdsong and Spencer Bivens have continued to pitch capably in long relief and are poised to take over should someone get injured or removed from the rotation. Kyle Harrison has also been doing well in Triple-A (21 IP, 9 ER, 33.7 K%).