UPDATED MARCH 25: The final preseason update! I’ve reduced the number of blurbs to 150 as we gear up for the season, but a chart of players 151-300 will be available at the end of the article.
This year comes with a new feature: Nate’s Notes! Our own Nate Schwartz will be providing additional analysis – sometimes supporting, sometimes providing a counterpoint – throughout the ranks.
We hope that these rankings and the notes throughout give you something to think about as draft day approaches and help you feel as prepared as possible when it comes to hitters in your 2026 drafts.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, which is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: runs, RBI, home runs, batting average, and stolen bases.
- These are not best ball or draft and hold rankings. The 12-team redraft format with daily moves is the fundamental opposite of that. Pure volume plays are not valued as much here as in those no-move formats.
- I take rankings like this more as art than science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their biases, strategic philosophies, risk assessments, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked well for me, but it might not be an excellent fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your leaguemates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could, it’d be weird in a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but I’ll add them once those eligibilities are earned. This is just a maintenance thing, and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- No stat is an island, and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.). Still, the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- Similarly, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Regardless of true talent, anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats. It could even last over a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which will be valid until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends can give us hints.
- One of the most difficult things to account for in these rankings is the dynamic between low-ceiling players who have clear roles and players who could have higher ceilings but are without a clear path to playing time. I try to note this in the blurbs as much as I can. NOTE: PROJECTIONS AND AUCTION CALCULATORS WILL ALWAYS FAVOR THE FORMER OVER THE LATTER.
Ranking Insights
A few things I noticed while cobbling this together:
- The first six tiers are EXTREMELY deep, and I will be using at least four of my first five picks on hitters (with the caveat that one of the Big Three of Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Garrett Crochet at the right spot could make me pause). I want as many of these guys as I can get.
- Catcher has grown deeper and deeper, and there will be viable (or at the very least, interesting) starting catchers left undrafted in your single-catcher leagues. While I am still a HUGE fan of Cal Raleigh, you’ll find the other catchers ranked a bit lower than you might have expected based on the values you might see in various auction calculators and site ADPs.
- After the top 150, I’d much rather take a shot on a high upside guy than bank on one of the many slap-hitting volume guys you can find later on.
- Second base and third base should be a priority in your draft prep. Have targets in a few different phases of the draft. You do NOT want to be without a plan halfway through your draft, as there are some steep drop-offs.
- You can find speed outside of the top 100, but power and runs scored are considerably rarer.
- At this point in the offseason, ADP is heavily skewed towards deep formats, like NFBC’s Draft Champions. These formats tend to push catchers’ and steals’ numbers way up. This will be corrected as we go, but if you’re in a standard head-to-head categories league, you should be aware of this bias in the early ADP and plan accordingly.
Read The Notes
If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to contact me on Bluesky (@scottchu.pitcherlist.com), X (@ifthechufits), or Reddit (u/ChusephEsquire)
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) with Nate, starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
For additional insight, also check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast! This is a hitter-focused pod with myself, Brett Ford, and occasional special guests. We will soon be releasing episodes breaking down these rankings.
Lastly, but certainly not least, these rankings have insights from the great Nate Schwartz! I view rankings as more of a conversation than a monologue, so you’ll see Nate’s Notes throughout the ranks to get an alternative viewpoint. Want more from Nate? Check out The Approach Angle podcast, his weekly articles, or jump into our Reddit AMAs during the season! You can also find him on Bluesky (@nschwartz.bsky.social), X (@_nateschwartz), or Reddit (u/NateSchwartzPL).
Tier 1
1. Shohei Ohtani (DH, LAD) — I’m sure someone will complain that he’s an injury risk, but that’s only an issue for the pitching side, not the hitting side. Ohtani has back-to-back seasons with 50 home runs, and while he didn’t come close to the 59 steals from 2024, 20 steals is nothing to scoff at. He’s the perennial NL MVP favorite and is in the prime of his career.
2. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) — Judge appeared in 148+ games for the fourth time in five seasons, shedding the “injury-prone” label, which was the only real knock we had against him. If you prefer to list him first, go for it. I did two months ago.
Nate’s Note: Hard to go wrong with either of these two. I would also go with Ohtani if I had the first pick in my drafts, but that’s just a preference to get a few more steals. Judge more than makes up for that with everything else, though.
Tier 2
3. Juan Soto (OF, NYM) —It doesn’t matter what stadium he is in, what team is around him, or whatever. The batting average should bump back up 10-20 points in 2026 to get his OBP back over .400, and he should blast another 40 home runs.
4. José Ramírez (3B, CLE) — Thirty home runs, 40 steals, and a strong batting average are just par for the course at this point. He’s the top third baseman in the game. Imagine how great he’d be if this team had someone else, or God forbid, TWO someones at the same time to thicken this lineup a bit.
5. Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, KCR) — Thirty home runs is a tough ask when you play half your games in Kauffman and have a spray-hitting approach. He should hit around 25, though, and Witt will provide elite ratios with 35-40 steals. The counting stats could improve as well if the Royals find one or two more pieces (not that I necessarily expect this to happen).
6. Julio Rodríguez (OF, SEA) — I’m going to resist the “slow starter” narrative, though his career numbers have shown it has been the case in three of his first four seasons. The biggest thing we learned about Rodríguez is that the guy we saw in 2022 and 2023 was the real J-Rod, and the 2024 version was not. We know 30 home runs, 30 steals, and 200 combined runs and RBI are on the way; it’s just a matter of when and how. The return of Naylor helps to keep this lineup a little heavier at the top of a lineup that does get thin in a hurry with the loss of Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez.
7. Kyle Tucker (OF/DH, LAD) — I’ve always been a huge Kyle Tucker fan, and seeing his greatness on full display to start 2025 was a lot of fun. The drop-off for the rest of the season was much less fun. Injury narratives are challenging to grasp, as they often oversimplify complex, multifaceted issues. In this case, though, I’m willing to give Tucker a mulligan and say the injury sapped his productivity in 2025 and that we will see a rejuvenated Tucker come spring.
Landing in LA certainly gives Tucker a boost to his counting stats, which hopefully offsets the lower stolen base totals that we should expect with the Dodgers, as they were much less aggressive in 2025 than the Cubs, and I don’t expect that to change. Something like 30-35 home runs and 20 steals should be there, though, and over 200 combined runs and RBI with a .280 or better batting average…assuming he stays healthy.
8. Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SDP) — Tatis Jr. endured a three-month power outage over the summer, hitting just five bombs in all of June, July, and August combined, though he rebounded in September to hit seven to close out the year. More importantly, he played in 150 games for the first time in his career and in at least 140 for the second time in three seasons. With a bit more confidence in his health and the hope that we don’t see another extended loss of power, Tatis could break into Tier 1.
Nate’s Note: I really like Bobby Witt Jr. as the fourth-ranked hitter. His average will be a significant boon at the top of the first round while still providing similar home run and steal totals to José Ramírez. I feel more confident about the upper floor of Witt than about the potential age regression from Ramírez, and the new Kauffman Park factors should help, too. Not to say Ramírez is a bad option at all, but, to me, I believe Witt can give more upper-first round production compared to just standard first round floor.
Tier 3
9. Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — When you hit 45 home runs in your first full season, you get noticed. The most common narrative about Caminero this offseason will be the home/road splits, as his OPS at home was over 200 points better than his road OPS, but it’s worth noting that he hit more dingers on the road than he did in his home park (by one, but still!). The real difference came from a huge spike in infield flies when on the road, which feels more like a random distribution than it does a predictable pattern. You can look for 30-35 home runs, if not more, as well as 100 RBI, though the ratios might fluctuate a bit. Being eligible at third base helps, too, as it’s a position where there will be the haves and the have-nots.
10. Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI) — The power can be a bit uneven, but we saw a healthy Corbin Carroll hit 30 home runs and swipe 30 bases. The only genuine concern heading into 2026 I have is the counting stats, as the D-Backs got rid of two of their best hitters at the deadline, and their top prospect hasn’t looked ready to join the heart of a lineup. As of this moment, this lineup is three hitters deep, and unless they are aggressive in free agency, Carroll’s ceiling might be just a tad lower than others in this tier, but his floor is as good as anyone’s.
News that Carroll will have surgery on his hamate bone may scare some into dropping him in their ranks, but the limited data available suggests there isn’t a long-term impact on power or overall performance. He’s fallen just a few spots here, and I’m not going to go any further unless we see complications in his recovery.
11. Kyle Schwarber (OF/DH, PHI) — Schwarber is back in Philly, and hit the ball harder than ever in 2025. He also put up another season hitting .240 or better, and I think that should continue with how hard he hits the ball, how often he pulls it, and how often it’s in the air. In standard roto leagues or in formats where he’s only DH-eligible, I could see an argument for Schwarber to be lower in this tier, but in head-to-head categories or any league that rewards walks, Schwarber is as safe a player as you’ll find.
12. Cal Raleigh (C/DH, SEA) — Considering that there’s a legitimate improvement in his fly-ball rate, pulled-fly-ball rate, and barrel rate, we should assume Cal Raleigh’s power is legit, even if 60 home runs is improbable. We aren’t too sure about what the rest of the offense will look like with Polanco and Suárez all hitting the market in the offseason, but Raleigh is a threat to hit 50 home runs and drive in 100 runs as long as there’s a league-average offense around him. Many of you will have Raleigh lower on your board due to wanting to play the back-end of the catching pool, but per the FanGraphs Player Rater, Raleigh out-earned the second, third, and fourth-best catchers combined in 2025 ($47.7 to $46.0). That’s a huge advantage.
13. Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH) — Despite a slow start and playing in just 117 games in the big leagues, Kurtz finished as a top-30 hitter on the FanGraphs Player Rater and as the fifth-best first baseman. To put that in more perspective, every other first baseman in the top 10 had at least 150 more plate appearances, and while he tied Lindor, Pages, Harris II, and Elly De La Cruz in RBI with 86, each of them played in at least 156 games. Sophomore slumps have bitten players with an even shinier prospect pedigree than Kurtz, though those guys presumably didn’t have the benefit of hitting in a minor league ballpark. It might be a bumpy ride due to the strikeout rate that has a tendency to spike, but few players have hot streaks that burn as brightly as Kurtz’s.
14. Pete Alonso (1B, BAL) — A new home for Alonso might be just what the doctor ordered. For what it’s worth, Statcast indicates that if he had played all of his games in Camden Yards, he’d have hit 45 home runs. Had he played all his games in Citi Field, it would have been just 36. The new dimensions certainly played nicer with right-handed hitters in 2025, and Alonso should be able to take advantage of that (plus whatever he gained by getting a fresh start) to hit .250 or better with 40 home runs.
15. Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM) — Lindor is averaging over 30 home runs and 30 steals over the last three seasons, with well over 100 runs scored. He’s also among the most durable players in the game over the course of his career, missing more than 20 games just once since his first full year in the majors back in 2016. Sure, we’ve seen some extended slumps in each of the last two seasons, but the end results are fantastic, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2026.
News that Lindor may have surgery on his hamate bone may scare some into dropping him in their ranks, but the limited data available suggests there isn’t a long-term impact on power or overall performance. I’ve moved him down just a few spots here, and that’s all I’m doing until we hear more news.
16. Gunnar Henderson (SS/DH, BAL) — One of the most frustrating things about trying to evaluate players in-season is that we just don’t know everything that’s going on. Earlier in January, Henderson admitted that he played with a shoulder issue for most of the season, which may very well explain the 4.2 drop in his average fly ball velocity in 2025. That’s why he jumped from 28th in my “too early” rankings from October to 16th today. It is worth noting, though, that the power outage we saw really started in the second half of 2024 (see charts below), and there’s still risk that he won’t get back to the 30+ home run guy we fell in love with in 2024. Still, with an improved lineup around him and a boatload of talent, Henderson is well worth the gamble.
17. Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN) — The Reds were far less aggressive on the base paths in 2025 than in 2024 (when they were one of the most aggressive teams in the league) under Terry Francona, and it’s hard to imagine that changing too much in 2026. That puts a lower ceiling on the steals, though the rest of the package is as promising as ever. Elly will likely never be an elite decision-maker, but if he can just be below average like he was in the first half instead of abysmal like he was in the second half, there’s a chance he’s at the top of this tier early into 2026. The more likely outcome, though, is more of the rollercoaster ride we’ve seen from him throughout his career so far, albeit with a bit higher floor thanks to the reduced strikeout rate.
18. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B/DH, TOR) — Thanks to his propensity to hit liners and grounders, 30 home runs feels more like a ceiling than a floor for Vlad Jr. these days, despite his elite exit velocities. However, that lower home run ceiling comes with excellent ratios and counting stats (though it’s insane he only drove in 84 runners while hitting second or third on the fourth-highest scoring offense in the land). Vladito presents one of the highest floors in the game, as he’s never missed 10 games in a season since being activated to the major league roster and in the top 15 in both runs and RBI since the start of 2022 (which means I’ve excluded his incredible 48-home run 2021) and is an excellent pick to anchor a team that either already has or soon plans to get risky.
It feels a little crazy to rank Guerrero lower than Kurtz, especially with projections loving Guerrero, but my philosophy in 12-teamers is usually to chase that ceiling early, and that’s something Guerrero just can’t deliver to the same degree as the rest of the players in this tier. If you’re more of a floor person, you can bump him to 14th or 15th.
Nate’s Note: Generally speaking, I think the first basemen in this tier are ranked aggressively. I’m the most hesitant about Pete Alonso: a 30-year-old slugger who just got the big payday and could see a step back in year one of a new deal. Kurtz is a super enticing option here, but he does run the risk of being a second-year player. While I like Vlad Jr. a bunch, the upper limit on power will direct me to other options for topline hitters. Three great bats to me, but I prefer to target five category contributors or hitters in shallower positions in this range.
Tier 4
19. Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) — The plus-plus contact ability we saw from Acuña in 2023 remains a complete anomaly, and without it, the incredible highs of that season feel more like a pipe dream, though we all know the real issue is whether he’s going to play in 140 games. This was the third time in five seasons he’s missed at least 60 games, and the fourth time in those five years he’s missed at least 40 games.
While we did see the power stroke come back with 21 dingers (he had just four in 49 games in 2024), the speed was absent. With a healthy offseason, we should see some of that speed come back, making Acuña a 30-30 threat with strong ratios (think more like a .280-.290 average, though, instead of that insane .337).
I bumped Acuña ahead of Alvarez as a healthy Acuña likely outperforms Alvarez due to the steals, but I’ve still ranked him far later than he’ll likely be available in drafts so the difference likely means nothing.
20. Yordan Alvarez (OF/DH, HOU) — If it wasn’t for the injury risk, he would be a Tier 2 hitter. Alvarez had a slow start to 2025 when healthy, posting just a .646 OPS before hitting the IL, but was his usual self when he returned later in the season, evidenced by the 1.031 OPS. Obviously, injuries have been a major bummer throughout his career, but he did play in at least 135 games in ’21, ’22, and ’24, and hit 31 home runs with 97 RBI in his 114-game ’23. Yordan remains one of the best hitters in all of baseball, and those who feel a little light on power early in the draft should be aggressively circling this name on their board. If you’re risk-averse, you might want to push Alvarez down with the first basemen later on in this tier.
21. Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL) — Chourio’s career has started with back-to-back 20-20 seasons and a cumulative batting average of .272, and yet somehow we are all a little disappointed because we know he has the potential to give us even more. It didn’t help that Chourio missed 32 games in 2025, in large part due to a hamstring injury in the second half, and given a full season, I think we will see Chourio take that step forward to be more of a 25-25 player while keeping that solid batting average and providing plenty of counting stats.
22. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B/3B, NYY) — Jazz’s struggles with contact make him a volatile player. Still, his dynamic skillset and eligibility at two critical positions make that easy enough to gloss over. Sure, he’ll have months where he hits .180, but in between, you’ll get a 30-30 season (or even 35-35). I’m also encouraged by a second straight season with at least 130 games (just barely) and the improved walk rate we saw this season, which helped Chisholm finish with a wRC+ above 100 in every single month in 2025. His streakiness will drive you crazy, but the juice is worth the squeeze to get all that power and speed with solid counting stats.
23. Zach Neto (SS, LAA) — Neto’s season started and ended on the IL, but in the 128 games in between, we saw an excellent fantasy shortstop. His average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate were all up significantly, with no real loss in contact ability and a minimal uptick in strikeouts. Neto is a threat for a 30-30 season if he stays healthy in 2026, especially if the across-the-board improvements to his quality of contact stick around.
24. Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) — Ketel Marte missed about a month with a foot injury and hurt his hand late in the season, but none of that stopped him from hitting for a high average and smacking 28 home runs, though he wasn’t as explosive as his 36 home runs in 2024. There are plenty of questions about the state of the Diamondbacks’ offense heading into 2026 (albeit mainly in the second half of the lineup). Still, Marte should be a consistent contributor at second base who can hit 25 or more home runs and rack up counting stats in the heart of the order with a batting average north of .280.
Marte gets a big boost from my October ranks in large part because many trusted projection systems (including our own) think Marte is in for another excellent season, and while injuries have been an issue these last few seasons, being a second baseman with elite upside makes Marte a rare commodity.
25. Brent Rooker (OF/DH, ATH) — Rooker fell a bit short of my expectations in 2025 as I hoped the high batting average and gawdy home run totals would continue as he played half his games in a minor league park, but alas, it was not to be. That said, we did see a meaningful drop in his strikeout rate (from 28.8% in 2024 to 22.2% in 2025), and with his raw power, there’s a very good chance he improves upon his home power numbers with a second season in Sacramento. The healthy floor is 30 home runs with strong counting stats and a decent batting average, and I still believe there’s another 38-40 home run campaign in his bat.
26. Bryce Harper (1B/DH, PHI) — Harper missed a decent chunk of the summer on the IL with inflammation in his wrist, and it was something he dealt with for at least a large portion of the season. I’m treating 2025 as more of a floor than the new norm, and even if I expect him to miss 15-20 games for whatever reason (he hasn’t played in more than 145 games since 2019), Harper should still be able to hit 30 home runs with excellent ratios. The path to something like a top-20 finish for Harper is all about staying healthy, as thanks to his routine absences from the lineup, he’s failed to reach 90 runs or 90 RBI in any of the last four seasons. Still, it’s hard to ignore the upside of a healthy Harper, and it’s not as though the remainder of this tier is without risk.
Why does Harper get a big bump from my October ranks? Well, because I was simply far too low on him. That description above is the same as the one from October, and makes just as much sense with this ranking.
27. Josh Naylor (1B/DH, SEA) — How do you not love Josh Naylor? This 5’10” ball of effort not only drove in at least 90 runners for the third straight season, but he took a second percentile sprint speed and turned it into 30 stolen bases in 2025 while getting caught just twice. He actually led the Mariners in steals from the day he joined up, beating out Julio Rodríguez. A return to Seattle was an ideal outcome for all, as it makes a return to 20-25 steals (or more) become a lot more likely. Naylor’s skillset is contact-driven and very safe, and while elite home run numbers aren’t likely, I truly believe in his ability to be a plus in all five categories once again.
28. Manny Machado (3B, SDP) — Steady ol’ Manny Machado continues to be the guy you expected when you drafted him. In every non-COVID season since 2015, Machado has at least 27 home runs, 75 runs scored, and 85 RBI with a batting average no lower than .258. Those numbers alone would be a borderline top-60 hitter, but that’s the worst of each category that we’ve seen from him over a decade. The only thing to really keep in mind here is that Machado suffers a four-to-six week slump every year where people finally think his age is catching up to him. It’s a small price to pay for the hot streaks and year-over-year consistency we get from Machado.
The other thing to keep in mind is that Machado’s ceiling may be slightly capped, at least from a counting stat perspective, because this lineup is a Ramón Laureano regression away from being just three hitters deep. It’s possible things break right with Laureano and Xander Bogaerts and maybe even Gavin Sheets, but runs scored might be a struggle with the lack of dangerous hitters behind him.
Machado falls five spots in this update only because I can’t shake my concerns about the state of the offense in San Diego. When it came to actual drafts, I found myself talking myself out of him and into the five guys above him.
29. Trea Turner (SS, PHI) — It was great to see Turner return to the land of 30 stolen bases and a .300 batting average, even if he fell short of 20 home runs for the first time since 2020. Turner will be the veteran leadoff man on a Phillies team that knows the clock is ticking, and if he can play in at least 140 games (which he has done in four of the last 5 seasons), he should be good for at least another 15 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 90-100 runs scored, and a batting average north of .290.
30. Matt Olson (1B, ATL) — Olson looked much the same in 2025 as he did in 2024, albeit with a better batting average. Olson’s true strength, apart from the 30-ish home run power, is his durability. He’s played in all 162 games for four straight seasons and has only missed more than six games one time since his first full season in 2018. His incredible 54 home runs in 2023 are unlikely to be repeated, but 28-30 home runs and decent (or possibly even good) ratios will be there in 2026, and if the Atlanta offense is even just slightly better and/or healthier than it was in 2025, we should see 200 combined runs and RBI as well.
Nate’s Note: Ronald Acuña Jr. poses as a high-risk/high-reward play that, to me, ranks above the rest of the names in this tier. We saw him run in the winter, and his five-category potential puts him closer to other first-round bats rather than this slightly older tier.
Tier 5
31. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) — It was a tale of two halves for Pete Crow-Armstrong, going from one of the best hitters in the game through July to one of the worst from August to the end of the season. Oddly enough, plate discipline didn’t seem to play a massive role in his demise, as his second-half strikeout rate of 25.6% wasn’t that much higher than it was in the first half (22.9%).
There’s obviously a dynamic player in here who can hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases, even if it comes with poor ratios. The question is whether he can tap into that explosion of power and hit ability again, and whether he can pick himself out of the horrible slumps a bit quicker. If either is true, he may come close to matching his 2025 numbers. It’s a gamble, but not a stupid one.
32. James Wood (OF/DH, WSN) — Wood was a top-10 player for me until the great cratering that happened after the All-Star Break. Strikeouts were the obvious issue, and the best explanation I’ve been able to come up with relates to his decision-making against breakers, as you can see below.
On the bright side, Wood has demonstrated his ability to make good decisions against breaking balls and hit any type of pitch with extreme power. He’s even pretty good at laying off breakers that are out of the zone. The problem is his extreme passiveness against breakers in the zone, and if you can’t hit a breaker for a strike, then you’re gonna have a bad time. This isn’t an easy fix, by any means, but the mountain Wood needs to climb to find his early-season form isn’t as high as his raw numbers suggest, and his ceiling is that of a top-10 player.
I may have underestimated how hard it can be for players to fix the issues he is facing (breakers are the bane of young power hitters everywhere), and this scary dip in home run power (a new metric we have for our PL Pros!). While it did start to rebound, there’s no guarantee that he picks back up there, especially with his struggles with making good contact.
All that said, I moved Wood back up several spots because the risk is likely worth it. Spring Training stats will not sway me one way or another on Wood.
33. Mookie Betts (SS, LAD) — Through his first 453 plate appearances of 2025 (103 games), Mookie Betts was objectively a disappointment. He was slashing just .231/.302/.355 with just 11 home runs, and for quite some time, we openly questioned whether Betts was in the twilight of his career. He must have heard us, because for the remaining 47 games, he hit nine home runs with a fantastic .317/.376/.516 line. Our metrics certainly caught this spike as well.
If Betts can avoid the horrifying lows in 2026, he should clear 100 runs scored without an issue, and his elite decision-making and contact ability give him multiple paths back to a batting average above .265 and an OBP above .350.
34. Brice Turang (2B, MIL) — Folks drafted Turang in 2025 to hold down the stolen base category after he swiped 50 bags in 2024, but unfortunately, that number fell all the way to 24 in 2025. On the bright side, Turang had a bit of a power breakout, going from seven homers in ’24 to 18 in ’25 (including 10 in August), and became a fixture in the heart of the order, boosting his counting stats in a big way.
Turang is only 26 and may well have a new level of power in him that sticks around, but projecting more than 15 is a dangerous game, as his power is more likely to translate into more hits than it is more home runs due to his low fly-ball rates and how often he hits the ball up the middle and the opposite way. Still, 15 home runs, 90+ runs scored, 25-30 steals, and a high batting average are more than enough to make him one of the premier second basemen in fantasy.
35. Riley Greene (OF/DH, DET) — If you’re familiar with my work, you know I’m a huge Riley Greene fan. Being a Tigers fan is part of it, and the other part is that a 25-year-old Greene makes very loud contact and has developed an extreme uppercut swing that can get balls out of the yard in a hurry, even in spacious Comerica Park.
That uppercut swing has a downside, though, and it’s the pesky holes it puts in his plate coverage. Greene made adjustments throughout the year, but the high strikeout rates persisted. He’s managed to keep the strikeouts to reasonable levels in years past, and I believe he can make the necessary adjustments in 2026, either as quickly or more quickly than he did in 2025. I expect 30+ home runs and 100 RBI, and should he find a little more patience and cover those holes a little better, Riley will be in the top 20 before you know it.
36. Rafael Devers (1B, SFG) — Devers finished 2025 with 35 home runs and 109 RBI, though the story of his season is less about numbers and more about the absolute circus he endured to start the season. Boston signed a third baseman and relegated him to DH duties, followed by a stretch of struggling with strikeouts in April. He was then traded to the Giants just two years into a 10-year contract. Devers was a slightly worse hitter by the Bay than he was in Boston, though the stats under the hood were quite similar outside of an elevated pull rate that was likely more random than anything else.
The one worry I have for Devers is how well his historically poor contact ability will play out over time. He’s never been excellent at making contact, but his 73.8% zone-contact rate in 2025 was a new low and made him the only player to get 500 or more plate appearances while having a zone-contact rate below 75% (Chisholm’s 76.8% was the next lowest). His old zone contact floors have turned into his rolling average, and his floors (especially from early in the season) are TERRIFYING. This makes me believe the .250 batting average and elevated strikeout rates are here to stay, making him more of a three-to-three-and-a-half category guy than four, almost like a poor man’s Kyle Schwarber. If he can rebound to something closer to his 2023-2024, then he’d move closer to the top of this tier.
37. Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) — For the first time in seemingly forever, Freddie Freeman did not finish as a top-five first baseman. An injury slowed him down over the summer, and it’s also possible that Father Time has started to come for Freeman. That all being said, this was still a top-40 hitter in 2025 thanks to a .295 average, 24 home runs, and 171 combined runs and RBI hitting in the heart of the most dangerous lineup in the National League. Freeman should keep that role for one more season at least. With the Dodgers’ hitting core of Ohtani, Betts, the newly acquired Kyle Tucker, Freeman, and Will Smith remaining intact for 2026, another season with elite ratios, 20+ home runs, and well over 100 RBI seems likely.
38. Jackson Merrill (OF, SDP) — Merrill hit the IL early on in April, and never really found his power stroke prior to hitting the IL again in August. It was quite a disappointment for the second-year outfielder, as his impressive 2024 had given us high hopes for the future. Merrill finished outside the top-120 hitters due to missed time and an underwhelming performance, but he finds himself ranked this high thanks to the return to form we saw following that second IL stint. Merrill smashed seven home runs in September, and also hit well in his tiny postseason sample, giving us a ray of hope that perhaps the downturn in production was more injury-related than anything else. If that’s the case, Merrill will easily outperform this ranking, though there’s still a risk that Merrill won’t consistently find power (it wasn’t really part of his scouting profile, and he didn’t show much of it in the minors).
39. Wyatt Langford (OF/DH, TEX) — On one hand, Langford hit more home runs and stole more bases in his sophomore season while taking more walks. He also improved his average exit velocity by almost two ticks and added about five points to his hard-hit and barrel rates. Sadly, he also added 5.8 points to his strikeout rate and finished outside the top-75 hitters, thanks in large part to inconsistency, as he gave us two months with a wRC+ above 160 and two other months with a wRC+ below 75. He also had three months where he slugged under .400.
Still, we did see signs that the tools we got excited about when he was a top-three prospect are in there, and his steadily improving plate discipline throughout the season suggests that maybe the consistency is coming soon. Langford has plus power, plus speed, and tons of upside heading into his age-24 season, and that’s more than enough to consider scooping him as a second or third outfielder.
40. Bo Bichette (SS/DH, NYM) — After years of declining production, Bichette finally reversed the trend and improved as the season went on. Sure, the stolen bases are likely never to return, and he fell short of 20 home runs, but he did manage to hit .311 and drive in 94 runners thanks to the Blue Jays’ offense finding its groove. Bichette did miss over 20 games for the third straight season, but there’s no reason he couldn’t pitch in a full one in 2026 with another .300 batting average, 17-20 homers, and plenty of runs and RBI.
Bichette actually bumped up a whole tier with the news he’d be a Met. Not because of the landing spot itself, mind you, but because he’ll be the primary third baseman for the Mets. Adding that eligibility is a big deal in my book, as it adds another safe piece in a position dying for more of them. He would have gotten this bump if he had gone somewhere to play second base as well, but third base is just as nice.
41. Hunter Goodman (C/DH, COL) — The only ray of sunshine that pierced through the cold, hostile mountains of Colorado, at least from a baseball perspective. Goodman started 2025 hot and stayed productive the entire season, playing 144 games (104 at catcher) and producing both at home and on the road – a rare feat for a Rockies hitter. Goodman’s power plays in every park, evidenced by the 18 home runs he hit on the road, though the thin air and spacious outfield grass in Colorado allows Goodman to hit over .300 on the road (59 points higher than how he hit on the road).
42. Shea Langeliers (C/DH, ATH) — I definitely believe in the improved batting average for Langeliers due to the much-improved strikeout rate (just 19.7%, a full 7.5 points lower than his previous career-best rate), but the question is how much we believe in the absolutely insane run Langeliers went on following the All-Star Break. In 36 games following the break, Langeliers hit 17 home runs, drove in 34 runners, and slashed .331/.360/.748. He returned to earth a bit after that run, hitting just two home runs and driving in just seven baserunners in his final 21 games, though the batting average remained strong.
Langeliers should hit 25-30 home runs again in 2026, though the batting average may dip just a bit due to normal variance, and the counting stats will be dependent on how much offense can happen around him. Also, while the strikeout rate improvement was consistent over the season, there’s still a risk he reverts to something closer to his old self, which could shave even more off his batting average. If he can keep up the plus decision-making skills he started to show at the end of the season, though, this rank will be far too low.
Nate’s Note: This is a tier of incredibly streaky hitters whose highs are going to make you feel invincible, and lows make you want to rebuild in a redraft league. I’m continually becoming a PCA believer for fantasy, as the floor of home runs and stolen bases should set him up for success. Additionally, I’m still buying in on Wyatt Langford. He had the second-highest barrel rate of anyone to not hit 25+ home runs (behind Oneil Cruz), and his exceptional pull-air rate should pay off soon. Additionally, I’m avoiding the two catchers at the bottom of this tier because of their streakiness and the depth of the catcher position. There are a lot of other great options later in the draft, in my opinion.
Tier 6
43. Cody Bellinger (OF, NYY) — Despite hitting the most home runs he’s had since 2019, Bellinger’s barrel rate and hard-hit rate remained consistently below average. On the plus side, Bellinger will return to the Bronx and play in a park where he doesn’t really need the elite quality of contact to do a lot of damage.
Due to the crazy fluctuations in production for Bellinger over the last several years, Bellinger is a rather difficult player to project. It’s safe to assume he’ll keep hitting a ton of fly balls (the vast majority of which go up the middle or the opposite way), and the BABIP Gods will likely ensure he has two crappy months (like April and September last season). Still, he should hit 25 home runs with excellent counting stats, though I wonder how he can keep hitting close to .270 with the batted ball profile of a .240-.250 hitter.
44. Eugenio Suárez (3B/DH, CIN) — Suárez is coming off a 49 home run season, and back-to-back campaigns with at least 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. Suárez is an extreme pull hitter and puts a lot of balls in the air, so hitting 40+ once again is very much in play with a return to Great American Ballpark. The supporting cast around him is volatile, but this is a solid power source with a very high floor, even if it comes with painful ratios.
45. Maikel Garcia (2B/3B/SS/OF/DH, KCR) — Garcia’s 16 home runs in 2025 were five more than he had in all of 2023-2024 combined, and he did it with a better batting average than ever before. Garcia doesn’t have a gawdy barrel rate thanks to his propensity to hit ground balls, but his average exit velocity of 91.3 mph shows he does have some thunder in his bat if he can get it up in the air to the pull side, which is precisely what he improved on in 2025. These changes can sometimes be fluky, but with a guy who can play several premium positions, enough raw power to make it believable, and the ability to steal over 20 bases in his back pocket, Garcia is a solid choice for managers who need speed and batting average boosts without sacrificing power entirely.
46. Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) — Buxton was a top-20 hitter in 2025, which is precisely what we’d expect if we knew Buxton would play in more than 125 games (he appeared in 126 games last season). Of course, this was the first time since his first full season in 2017 that he played in more than 125 games, and just the second time he played in over 100 games.
Picking Buxton is all about risk management. If you’ve played it safe in the first several rounds, you can even consider moving him up your board a tier or two. If you’ve already taken on some health risks (Acuña, Alvarez, Seager, etc.), you might need to take him off your board.
As a final note, I think Buxton should still get stolen bases, if only because the Twins will want to score runs somehow, and there aren’t many paths to scoring runs for this team if Buxton isn’t getting as close to home plate as possible.
Also, Buxton dropped down about a tier based on how bad the Twins look to me right now and how in drafts I found myself preferring to look elsewhere for high-risk players.
47. Austin Riley (3B, ATL) — It’s been back-to-back disappointing and injury-shortened seasons for Riley, who from 2021 to 2023 hit at least 33 home runs each year with a high batting average and boatloads of counting stats. There are plenty of reasons to be hopeful: Riley will only be 29 next season and showed high barrel rates and strong quality of contact despite the less-than-expected outputs for the last two seasons.
Still, it’s tough to shake two straight seasons finishing outside the top-150 hitters. Mild-to-moderate injury and performance risk have pushed Riley down draft rankings, but there’s still top-25 potential if he finds his old form. I’m a little nervous about investing in such a risky third baseman, especially considering how low the replacement level will be, so it would behoove you to grab someone else either before or after Riley with third base eligibility.
48. Vinnie Pasquantino (1B/DH, KCR) — I never thought Vinnie Pasquantino would be a 30-home run hitter after seeing what he brought to the table in his first three seasons, but here we are. Vinnie P’s power appeared in full force over a relatively short time frame, where he hit nine home runs in a 14-game stretch in mid-August. Outside of that stretch, the Pasquantino we saw was more like the 20-25 home run guy we expected. I’m not bringing that up to say that it was all a fluke and that we should ignore the power uptick, but I do want to recommend caution on projecting another 30 home runs for a player who didn’t really hit the ball harder or in the air or to the pull side much more than he did in past years.
Twenty-five homers feels like a more reasonable projection with 90-100 RBI if he can stay healthy, though notably, he missed significant time in 2023 and 2024 due to injury, which can’t be ignored. For points leaguers, and particularly those dealing with a strikeout penalty, go ahead and boost Pasquantino up a tier, as he is excellent at avoiding strikeouts, especially when compared to his first base peers.
49. Corey Seager (SS, TEX) — As per usual, the question for Seager is health. When healthy, we see elite production and elite quality of contact. Seager hasn’t played in 120 games since 2022, though that didn’t stop him from hitting 30 home runs in three consecutive seasons prior to 2025. If you haven’t taken on too much injury risk by this stage of the draft, Seager represents an opportunity to get a player with the potential to vastly outproduce his cost. If you’ve already taken on a lot of risk (such as Yordan Alvarez or Ronald Acuña Jr.), then you probably need to shove Seager down a tier (which will effectively remove him from your board).
50. Ben Rice (C/1B/DH, NYY) — He’s got to be a fixture in the lineup in 2026. Right? RIGHT?! Ben Rice is a Statcast darling, finishing as a top-five hitter in terms of xwOBA and hard-hit rate with a 99th percentile xSLG. In addition, he’s above average at taking walks and avoiding strikeouts and does a good job making contact. That said, the Yankees have shown an easy willingness to sit Rice against many lefties (he can hit them for power, but not for average, while striking out much more often and walking less), there’s some risk that he’ll get capped at 135-140 games. Still, with Paul Goldschmidt off the roster and no other obvious competition for first base at-bats, Rice ought to get the full-season chance he deserved.
One quick quirk to point out, though: in back-to-back seasons, Rice has seen a prolonged slump despite consistently strong batted-ball quality. I’m not sure if it’s because he enjoys walking under ladders or gets a kick out of spilling salt at meals, but it’s happened twice now, and in both cases, it’s led to reduced playing time for a while.
As a final note, Rice’s ADP on sites like NFBC will be surprisingly high, but I suspect it will be much more reasonable in single-catcher formats where many managers choose to wait on the position due to the depth. This is true of all the catchers in this tier, but Rice has been the most highlighted example in conversations I’ve had.
51. William Contreras (C/DH, MIL) — Contreras dealt with an injury in his left hand all season, though he looked a bit more like his old self as the season wore on (as you can see below in the rolling Power chart). It’s not easy to determine precisely how much this sort of injury impacted a hitter, but even with the injury, Contreras finished as a top-five catcher and as a top-40 hitter, so it feels silly to rank him any lower than that heading into what will presumably be a healthy 2026. Despite his power, Contreras has never hit more than 23 home runs due to his high ground-ball and low fly-ball rates, though he did make some improvements in that regard in 2025 (they turned into liners instead of fly balls, though, so it may have merely been a bit of a fluke).
Nate’s Note: This is a great spot to target third base before the positional cliff. Maikel Garcia showed significant improvement across the board and is the premier stolen base option after José Ramírez at third. Projections love Austin Riley, and, even though there’s injury concern, that 30 home runs with solid average potential is very enticing. I also sold on Vinnie Pasquantino and, unsurprisingly, Ben Rice. Pasquantino can match some of the veteran first basemen who go a few rounds before him, and Ben Rice should comfortably be a top-five catcher without as much wear-and-tear as he’s set to play first base.
Tier 7
52. Christian Yelich (OF/DH, MIL) — Yelich isn’t getting younger (he’ll be 34 when we kick off the 2026 season), but he did just manage to play in over 140 games for the third time in four seasons while putting up the most home runs he’s had since the rabbit-ball era. Banking on Yelich to be fully healthy and fully productive for back-to-back seasons is an aggressive gambit, but it was nice to see Yelich put everything together. He still has a propensity to hit too many grounders, and he lost his outfield eligibility in leagues that require 20 appearances (he fell one short). The Brewers should be a potent offense again in 2026, and Yelich will be a central part of it, giving him ample opportunities to pile up counting stats while hitting at least 20 home runs (if not 25+) and swiping 15-20 bags with good ratios.
53. Trevor Story (SS, BOS) — 2025 was Story’s first full-ish season since 2021, when he was still with the Rockies, and he did not disappoint, hitting 35 homers and swiping 31 bases with a .263 average and 187 combined runs and RBI. Story is under contract for one more season, and if anyone had any faith he’d be healthy for more than 120-130 games, I’d probably have Story ranked higher. Unfortunately, even with a full season to add to the math, Story is averaging just 80 games per season for the Red Sox, and we have to take that into consideration.
Furthermore, Story’s plate discipline screams streaky profile. It’s worth wondering whether he can make this kind of magic (he finished as a top-25 hitter in 2025) again in his age-33 season, considering all of the things working against him. There will be plenty of hemming and hawing in the offseason, trying to figure out exactly when is the right time to call his name at the draft. Still, projections I trust seem to trust Story, so that gives me a little less pause.
54. Geraldo Perdomo (SS, ARI) — Perdomo finished as a top-15 hitter in most formats (even higher in many points leagues), which is a challenge for a player like Perdomo who rarely hits the ball hard. In fact, Perdomo had only 14 home runs in 401 games in the majors coming into 2025, and never more than six in any single season in the minors or majors. His home runs weren’t cheap either, as Statcast credited him with 19.2 expected home runs. Perdomo’s success stems entirely from his elite contact and decision-making, making him a player with a very high floor and a ceiling closely tied to his ability to get the ball out of the yard. The high ratios, excellent plate discipline, and buckets of runs scored will be there in 2026, as will 25-30 stolen bases. That’s a good player, even if it only comes with 10-12 home runs.
I definitely over-ranked Perdomo in October, as I forgot to take into account that the counting stats will likely come down in a big way from 98 runs and 100 RBI. Something more like 90 runs and 60 RBI is a lot more likely.
55. Salvador Perez (C/1B/DH, KCR) — It’s insane how this guy keeps catching over 80 games a season, isn’t it? Sal got off to a slow start in 2025, hitting just four total home runs over the first two months, but for the rest of the season, he hit at least five home runs per month, including a nine-dinger July. Perez still swings at everything and manages to barrel more than his fair share of baseballs, though the ratios tend to suffer because he puts bad pitches in play a lot and wasn’t fast even in his prime. He will hit 25 home runs and drive in 100 again, somehow, though the slumps will likely be just as brutal as they were in 2025.
56. Willy Adames (SS, SFG) — At the end of May, Adames was slashing .210/.297/.339, had sunk to the bottom half of the order, and was looking like a bust by the Bay outside of an outstanding series in Colorado. In shallow leagues, Adames had hit the wire all over the place, but July changed all that as he posted a 1.096 OPS that month with seven home runs and as many RBI as he’d driven in for all of May and June combined (21). While the batting average was ugly for the rest of the season (as it had been before July), the power stuck around as he hit a total of 18 home runs in the second half, as many as Aaron Judge, Eugenio Suárez, teammate Rafael Devers, and Julio Rodríguez (and others).
I gave Adames a big boost since the October ranks, if only because I can’t ignore that he consistently finishes as a top 50-75 hitter even if the start is brutally slow.
57. Seiya Suzuki (OF/DH, CHC) — Crow-Armstrong wasn’t the only Cubs hitter to have a hot start followed by a disappointing second-half, as Seiya Suzuki was the 16th-best hitter for fantasy in the first half per the FanGraphs Player Rater, thanks to a whopping 25 home runs and 77 RBI. Unfortunately, his second half was very pedestrian as he slashed .213/.336/.351 with just seven home runs (and five of those seven came in the last four games of the season, meaning many head-to-head managers did not get to benefit from them). Even with that bummer of a second half, Suzuki set or tied career highs in home runs (32), runs scored (75), and RBI (103). I don’t think there’s another gear in Suzuki’s bat in terms of power, but his .245 batting average was well below his norm, and there’s plenty of potential to see that number go up, which would also lead to better runs scored totals, likely a more consistent season.
Another quick point on that second half: our metrics suggest he was still making contact, still making good decisions, and still putting some thunder on the ball despite the poor results, so the poor results may have been more of a mirage than a real change.
Update: Suzuki will get an extra week or two to rest up before making his 2026 regular-season debut, and his history of minor injuries did slide him down this tier a tiny bit. That said, I have no long-term concerns here.
58. Michael Harris II (OF, ATL) — Harris was dropped in just about every standard 12-team league by the start of June, and even the most patient fans were ready to bail when he was hitting a .205/.229/.310 line after play ended on July 10. Starting on July 11, though, Harris was a new man, as he clubbed 14 home runs and slashed .302/.317/.531 from then on. If you’ll recall, this late-season resurgence was also his story in 2024, though that one came even later. Maybe Harris turned a more permanent corner this time and is something resembling the top-20 hitter we saw in the second half. I just can’t shake the fact that we’ve seen three-month slumps in back-to-back seasons where he’s nearly the worst-hitting regular in the league, though, as there is just no way you can hold that in a 12-teamer.
Still, Harris is one of the younger players in the league (still just the age of most rookies), so there’s always a chance he finds more stability in 2026. Also, the loss of Profar means Harris II should have an easier time fighting his way into a better part of the lineup, even if the results aren’t consistent or fantastic out of the gate.
59. Alex Bregman (3B, CHC) — Bregman was stuck on the IL for a large portion of the summer, but he did manage to hit 18 home runs in 114 games (roughly a 24 home run pace) while getting back to his double-digit walk rate ways. Bregman is an extreme pull hitter, particularly on fly balls, and while a similar profile was not a huge success in the past (Isaac Paredes), Bregman’s historical home run spray chart suggests that Wrigley won’t rob very many home runs from him. In fact, Wrigley should be better for home runs than Fenway was, though Fenway had the potential to boost his batting average in ways Wrigley simply cannot.
60. Jose Altuve (2B/OF, HOU) — Altuve apparently played through a painful injury on his right foot this season, though it didn’t stop him from a top-70 hitter finish with 26 home runs, 157 combined runs and RBI, and solid (if lower than we expected) ratios. Altuve will turn 36 next May and will be entering his 15th full season in the big leagues, so it’s more than fair to wonder how much tread is left on these tires. Since turning 30, Altuve has become a pull-heavy hitter who gets his home runs by targeting the shortest part of the field, so as long as he has his timing and swing, he should be able to hit 23-25 home runs with plenty of counting stats (especially if the Stros can get the offensive wheels turning more effectively than they did in 2025).
Also noteworthy is that this was his second-straight season with over 150 games played, which, for now, makes me think of him as less of an injury risk than we previously believed.
Nate’s Note: Seiya Suzuki is my favorite in this tier. The second-half struggles came with similar Process+ numbers, and he’s primed to be in a great spot in a great lineup. I’m buying an output from him somewhere in the middle of 2024 and 2025: upper-20s home run total, .260 average, and great counting stats. He’s a dependable outfield option with fewer question marks than the rest of the group here.
Tier 8
61. Roman Anthony (OF/DH, BOS) — Roman Anthony got off to a slow start, but when he found his groove, we saw why he was considered one of the top prospects in the game. The growth in power was especially noticeable, and our stats confirm it was no mere fluke. We’ve noticed some fluctuation in his ability to make contact, which is typical for a young player, but the tools are all there, and it’s time to start getting excited. In 2026, as a regular at or near the top of the order for Boston, we could be looking at a player who hits 22-25 home runs, swipes 10-12 bags, and scores 100 runs with elite ratios.
This ranking is a lot lower than the one I gave him in October, largely because most projection systems that I trust are a bit less rosy on the home run totals, so while the numbers I put in above are certainly possible, it is equally likely we see a guy who hits 18-19 home runs with more like 85-90 runs scored and ratios that are more good than they are great.
62. George Springer (OF, TOR) — Springer finished as a top-10 hitter in most formats in 2025, and while few expect him to find that kind of power again (he hadn’t hit more than 25 home runs since 2019 before his 32 last season), it’s not as though his results were based on luck. Springer had the best barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity of his career in his age-35 season, a rare feat in baseball history. I don’t think Springer will go entirely back to his 2021-2024 form, and he should continue to be an excellent source of runs scored at the top of the order, but some regression to his career norms has to be baked in, as does the fact that he’s played in more than 145 games just once since 2016.
The primary value statement here is simple, though: he’s the everyday leadoff man for an excellent offense who has power, a bit of speed, and a long track record of plus ratios.
63. Taylor Ward (OF/DH, BAL) — Taylor Ward stayed healthy for a full season for a second consecutive year, and while the .228 batting average and streakiness were a bit annoying, it was a small price to pay for 36 home runs, 86 runs scored, and 103 RBI. As an extreme fly-ball hitter, Ward’s batting average is never going to be high, but the power is more than real enough to get him back to 30+ home runs in 2026, and if he can make those slumps just a little less painful by managing the strikeout spikes, he could certainly repeat his 2025 totals for his new team.
64. Jarren Duran (OF, BOS) — Duran predictably fell short of his breakout 2024 season, but hitting 16 home runs with 24 steals is nothing to sneeze at, and there were plenty of counting stats to go around. Duran finished as a top-60 hitter in 2025, and that feels about right for what he brings to the table. There’s some upside for more runs scored and batting average, and even more importantly, the floor should be something like a top-75 hitter.
65. Will Smith (C, LAD) — Smith only appeared in 110 games in 2025, leading to suppressed counting stat totals, and he also struggled mightily in the second half before he hit the IL, hitting just .237 over 36 games. That being said, Smith showed the best ratios of his career last season, slashing an impressive .296/.404/.497, and should he remain healthy in 2026 while carrying over his improved hard-hit and barrel rates, Smith should finish as a top-seven catcher with way more than the 64 runs scored and 61 RBI he gathered this season. The only reason he ranks a bit lower than you may expect is that catcher is very deep.
66. Ivan Herrera (C/DH, STL) — Iván Herrera is one of the few hitters who, by our PLV metrics, is consistently above average in Contact Ability, Power, and Decision Value, which makes his breakout 2025 campaign feel legitimate. Injuries have been a bit of an issue, as he hit the IL twice in 2025 with left leg issues (knee and hamstring) and also spent almost a month on the IL in 2024 with back tightness. Sure, he doesn’t have the track record of a guy like Salvador Perez, but everything under the hood suggests Iván Herrera is a 25-home run bat with plus ratios if he stays healthy all season, though he’s struggled to do just that, and of course, he’ll have to keep the ball in the air, which also was an issue at times in 2025 and in the minors.
A reminder that Herrera will only be eligible at catcher in leagues that require 10 starts. If your league needs 15 or more, he’ll miss the cut and be DH-only. That isn’t a huge deal, as I expect a ton of playing time (if healthy) and the bat is very promising in its own right, but he’d still fall about two tiers without the eligibility.
Still, there’s a lot to be excited about. I’ll show you the rolling Power+ below, and you should also keep in mind that he consistently has shown 75th percentile (or better) decision-making skills and contact ability.
67. Jo Adell (OF, LAA) — We’ve held on to hope for a Jo Adell breakout because we knew 37 home runs and 98 RBI were a real possibility, and lo and behold, we finally got it. Yes, it came with a .236 average and some deep slumps, but the light finally shone through the clouds on Adell’s upside. He’ll likely always be a batting average drag due to his contact and discipline issues, and the counting stats might be tough to repeat in a streaky-at-best Angels offense, but you won’t find a lot of guys after the first two or three rounds who could hit 40 home runs, and if you’ve fallen behind in the category, this is the premier place to catch up.
Just for giggles, here’s the least surprising chart in this article.
68. Tyler Soderstrom (1B/OF, ATH) — Soderstrom is the type of hitter who produces in large spikes with long lulls in between (two separate 25+ game stretches with no home runs, for example), but because he burns so hot when he’s on, the final numbers work out in his favor. Soderstrom’s strikeout rate improvement was a significant positive and helped him post a .276 batting average, though the high ground-ball rates force me to hesitate on his power ceiling, as hitting 30 home runs with so few fly balls is difficult even when your home park is a bandbox. Soderstrom is a solid back-end first baseman in 12-teamers, but make sure you’re aware of his particularly volatile on-again, off-again nature and are ready to deal with that emotionally.
69. Andy Pages (OF, LAD) — It was an impressive breakout for Pages, who hit 27 dingers with 14 steals and a .272 batting average in his first full season in the majors. Pages is not the type of hitter who takes walks, and that .272 batting average is not likely to be repeated (.250-.260 is more realistic). Also, the 14 steals were a shock, as he had never stolen more than 10 in a single season in the minors (and that was in rookie ball back in 2018 as a 17-year-old), and he wasn’t particularly efficient in his attempts, getting caught seven times in 21 attempts. Even if we accept that the batting average will take a dip and the stolen bases will be cut in half, Page’s pop and the fact that he plays for a high-powered offense mean he should be a valuable source of home runs and RBI without hurting you in other places.
70. Jakob Marsee (OF, MIA) — Marsee exploded on the scene when the Marlins promoted him late in the summer, and his 189 wRC+ in August was the second best in the majors among qualified hitters. Marsee excels at making contact, and unlike many contact-oriented hitters, he does a great job avoiding offerings out of the zone. I’m skeptical of the power, as he never slugged better than .428 in any full season in the minors, but the hit tool and speed are for real, and Marsee showed that he’s more than capable of handling same-sided pitching.
Marsee will hit at or near the top of the order in Miami this season. Fifteen home runs is probably the ceiling for his power (and under 10 is a very realistic possibility based on the issues he’s had with popping out). The counting stats might be less than desirable, but he could also steal 40 bases with a solid OBP. In those OBP formats or in cases where you need a significant boost in steals, you can move Marsee to the top of this tier or even the bottom of the next one.
Nate’s Note: Will Smith’s best per-plate-appearance season of his career and an iconic postseason moment don’t seem to be giving him the boost in drafts that we normally see. Smith’s 131 Process+ last year was the best among catchers, and, in a 12-team format, I’m less concerned about the playing time with what’s available. Additionally, I like Jakob Marsee in this group of outfielders. A swing change last year propelled him to a new max exit velocity (by almost 3 MPH!), and the true bat-to-ball ability looks more stable than projections are giving him credit for. Finally, it doesn’t look like Ivan Herrera is going to get catcher eligibility quickly (if at all, frankly), so I’m fading him a decent amount.
Tier 9
71. CJ Abrams (SS, WSN) — You’ll get about 20 home runs, 30 steals (they’ll come in bunches, then disappear), a mediocre average, a bad OBP, and 80-90 runs scored. I feel confident that the guy we’ve seen is the guy we will continue to get, and whether he flirts with the top 50 or just misses the top 75 will be mainly based on how lucky he gets spinning the BABIP wheel. I really don’t have much more to say here.
72. Nico Hoerner (2B/SS, CHC) — Hoerner’s ceiling and floor aren’t that far apart, which can be a bit boring. He’s going to hit fewer than 10 home runs, and he’s going to steal more than 25 bases while batting something close to .280. At this stage in the draft, you should have a good idea of whether Hoerner is a good fit for your roster: if you need a second baseman and/or steals and/or batting average, and have plenty of power already plugged in, then he makes a lot of sense. Alternatively, if you’re in a points league that penalizes strikeouts and gives more than one point for a stolen base, Hoerner is also a good fit. If these don’t apply, then he can be pushed down your board.
73. Jeremy Peña (SS, HOU) — Peña missed about 30 games due to injury, costing him all of July, and also lost some time at the end of the season, but when healthy, we saw a new level of production from Peña as he locked himself into the leadoff role in Houston. He was on track to clear 20 home runs and 25 steals had he played a full season, and a career-high hard-hit rate helped him achieve a .304 batting average. Even this improved form of Peña isn’t going to hit .300 for a full season (probably), but there’s a very real chance he hits 20 home runs, scores 85 runs, and swipes over 20 bags if he can stay healthy and if the Astros offense can find its groove with the return of Yordan.
Update: Peña made the Opening Day roster.
74. Drake Baldwin (C/DH, ATL) — Drake Baldwin had an incredibly successful rookie campaign, hitting 19 homers with just a 15.2% strikeout rate and a .274 batting average while driving in 80 runners. Baldwin should have an easier time getting to 500 plate appearances in 2026, assuming Ozuna is out of the picture, and if he can continue to fight off the ground-ball issues he had at times in 2026, he has a chance to be a top-six catcher.
I suspect many folks will be waiting on catcher and do a lot of “Player A vs. Player B” comps on Baldwin based on his second half, and I totally agree that he’s an exciting catcher for fantasy. That said, a great outcome would be repeating his excellent 2025. Wanting more than that is, in this guy’s opinion, a bit aggressive.
75. Randy Arozarena (OF/DH, SEA) — Arozarena set a new career-high in home runs in his age-30 season with 27 while also stealing 31 bases and scoring 95 runs, finishing inside the top-50 hitters in most formats. Arozarena’s career-long struggles with making contact in the zone (career rate of 77.9%) cause him to be particularly streaky, making it tough to trust Arozarena to consistently be more than the baseline we’ve seen over his career, which is a 20 home run, 20 stolen base guy with plenty of runs scored due to his place at the top of the order and a batting average that can fluctuate anywhere between .230 and .250. There’s upside for more, of course, but the floor can be pretty disappointing, especially in head-to-head leagues when you’re trying to endure his brutal slumps.
76. Brandon Nimmo (OF/DH, TEX) — The final season totals give the impression of a steady, consistent player, but on a week-to-week basis, Nimmo is quite the opposite, showing dizzying highs and terrifying lows throughout the season, with multiple weeks providing deeply negative values and about as many with hugely positive values. Still, he’ll play a full season and get to 23-25 home runs and double-digit steals with decent ratios at the end of it all and earn a value inside the top 75 with a ceiling of a top-40 to top-50 guy.
His move to Texas doesn’t really change a ton for Nimmo, other than maybe lowering his runs scored ceiling due to the weaker lineup.
77. Oneil Cruz (OF/DH, PIT) — At the end of play on August 1, Cruz had 18 home runs and 34 steals thanks to a much-improved walk rate and, of course, the fact that he’s one of the hardest hitters in baseball. The end of the season was unfortunately much more sour, as he hit just two more home runs and stole just four more bases over his final 37 games with a soul-crushing .140/.234/.228 line. While Cruz still hit the ball hard and his plate discipline was essentially the same as it was in the first several months, his ground-ball rate spiked to 56.2%. His weakness against lefties was also entirely on display as he hit just .102 against them on the season with a single home run in 125 plate appearances.
The poor finish pulled him out of the top-100 hitters on the season, but I’m still not ready to give up on a guy who can hit the ball 122.9 mph and has 93rd percentile sprint speed. If he can keep that walk rate in the double-digits and find a way to keep the ball off the ground, he can still tap into the 30 home run, 30 stolen base upside, and even if he can’t, he could still crack the top-50 hitters. The floor is depressingly low, though the ceiling is as tantalizing as just about anyone in the league.
If Cruz can make better decisions outside the zone, watch out. That was the fuel of his first half fire.
78. Matt Chapman (3B, SFG) — Chapman hit the IL twice in 2025, spraining a bunch of fingers in June and then again in August for discomfort in the same hand. Perhaps that’s the reason the power output was lower than we hoped, as the chart below suggests his power was sapped and did not improve. If it were merely the hand injury, then this ranking likely has Chapman about a tier too low. Still, Chapman hasn’t driven in 80 runners in a season since 2019, and while his runs scored totals used to be a strength, it’s unlikely the Giants will have him hitting second as he did in prior seasons.
IMPORTANT NOTE: This is the last of the “safe-ish” third basemen. After this, you run into a lot more unknowns, and if possible, you should make sure you have at least one third baseman by this point.
79. Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/OF, BOS) — Rafaela was the second-best second baseman in the first half as he hit 14 home runs, swiped 13 bags, and hit a robust .271 with much-improved metrics under the hood. Unfortunately, following the All-Star Break, things fell apart for Rafaela. He hit just two more home runs the rest of the way with a .218 average. It was encouraging that we didn’t see a spike in strikeout rate, as his contact ability remained strong (as it needs to be due to his aggressive nature), but his power fell off a cliff, particularly against fastballs.
Rafaela is a classic low-floor/high-ceiling sort of play, and to me, it hinges on whether he can punish fastballs. If Rafaela can bring back even average power against heaters, he’ll outperform this ranking and have a shot to be in the top 75. If he doesn’t, his floor is unfortunately very low, and he may not even be roster-worthy in 12-teamers.
80. Ian Happ (OF/DH, CHC) — For a third consecutive season, Ian Happ hit at least 20 home runs while scoring at least 85 runs and driving in at least 79 runners with a batting average between .240 and .250 and an OBP between .340 and .360. His ceiling is something like a top-60 hitter, and his floor is something like a top-100 hitter. Happ is a very bankable contributor, and if you’re in an OBP or points league, feel free to bump him up to somewhere in Tier 8.
81. Steven Kwan (OF/DH, CLE) — Steven Kwan’s hit tool is the story here, as he’s one of the best in the league at making contact. He doesn’t walk a ton, so the OBP isn’t as valuable as his batting average, but even on a subpar offense like Cleveland, Kwan should score 80-90 runs with double-digit home runs and about 20 steals with a batting average that could be as high as .300. In points leagues, he can be bumped a tier, but in OBP, he should be dropped a tier.
82. Yandy Díaz (1B/DH, TBR) — Yandy Díaz took full advantage of his temporary home park, hitting 18 of his 25 home runs at home. A return to the Trop is likely to suppress a lot of those numbers (he’s never hit more than 12 home runs in that park in any single season), but Díaz should remain an incredibly consistent producer of ratios and counting stats as an everyday player for the Rays. He’ll hit around .290 to .300 with 150 or more combined runs and RBI, though those home run totals will be closer to 16-18 than 23-25. Díaz gets a boost in points leagues due to his low strikeout rate and the fact he hits high in the order on a daily basis, but his boost in OBP leagues isn’t what it was earlier in his career (though he walked nearly 20% of the time at the end of the season, so perhaps a return to double-digit walk rates is on the horizon).
83. Brandon Lowe (2B/DH, PIT) — Lowe’s injury issues and struggles against lefties persist, but despite that, he managed to hit 31 home runs with 161 combined runs and RBI with a .256 average. Landing in Pittsburgh wasn’t ideal for his home runs or counting stats, but it does make it much less likely he’ll be platooned. You’ll get one of the top power hitters and run producers at second base, who will likely also spend time on the IL and on the bench during the season due to the injury and platoon risk (he’s missed at least 50 games due to these troubles in three of the last four seasons).
Nate’s (slightly less important) Note: I don’t like a lot of the “upside” hitters in this tier, with guys like Oneil Cruz and Randy Arozarena having concerningly low floors relative to others. The consistency of Ian Happ or Steven Kwan feels like good value in that you know what you’re getting, and likely filling a categorical hole of some sort at this point. I also believe Matt Chapman can come into spring training fully healthy and return to a form higher than Tier 9.
Tier 10
84. Teoscar Hernández (OF, LAD) — Heading into Hernández’s age-33 season, we have a pretty good idea of what he is and what to expect. He’ll have at least one month where he carries your roster, like his March and April, where he was tied for the league lead in RBI with 32 to go with his nine homers, and at least one month where he’s one of the worst guys on it, like his June when he slashed .189/.243/.347.
Still, despite his inconsistency (which stems from his struggles with making contact), Hernández piles up RBI because he gets to bat in the middle of the order for the Dodgers, and the last time the Dodgers were not a top-five offense in RBI was 2018 (they were sixth). You’ll be desperate to cut him at times in 2026, but if you hold firm, you’ll get 25 home runs and 90-100 RBI, though he won’t score that many runs, and the ratios will be a bit painful (especially in OBP). Still, when it comes to high-end RBI production at this point in the draft, you won’t find a better bet.
85. Luis Robert Jr. (OF/DH, NYM) — Will he hit for a low average? Yes. Will he have weeks where you wonder how he’s an everyday player? Yes. Will he miss time with an injury? Yes. But hear me out…he’s also super talented. Those 14 home runs and 33 steals in 110 games (in a full season, that’s nearly 20 home runs and 50 steals) were no fluke, and it’s worth noting that for the final month of the season, he had been posting sub-20% strikeout rates for a month. If you can survive the roller coaster and squeeze 140 games out of him, you’ll have a shot at a top-60 hitter despite his flaws. Of course, the floor is pretty awful between the injuries and poor performance, and if you don’t need stolen bases, it’s not an attractive package.
Joining the Mets will rob Robert of a premium spot in a lineup, but he should still get a chance to steal bases despite batting eighth, and a new home may be exactly what the doctor ordered to help Robert find a bit of consistency with a lot of players to look up to and/or emulate.
86. Michael Busch (1B/DH, CHC) — Michael Busch got a full season of action, including starts against lefties, and the results were overwhelmingly positive as he slashed .261/.343/.523 with 34 home runs and 90 RBI. He also hit at least five home runs in five of six months and consistently drove in runners. Busch also ended the season on quite a heater, hitting eight home runs over his last 15 games, and then carried that heat right into the playoffs to hit four more in his eight playoff starts.
Busch fell over 40 spots since my October ranks, largely because of a projected drop in ratios and home runs from the vast majority of projection systems I trust.
87. Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC) — If you didn’t get a shortstop earlier in the draft, Dansby Swanson is here to be your perfectly cromulent placeholder. He’s durable and hasn’t finished outside the top 20 at the position since 2019, usually finishing somewhere between 12th and 15th. You can pretty much bank 20 home runs, 80 runs, 75 RBI, and 15 steals with a .240-ish batting average with a ceiling that is only slightly better across the board and a floor that’s only marginally worse. He’s a great addition to teams that have taken on a ton of risk and need at least one position they can set-and-forget for a while.
88. Luke Keaschall (2B/DH, MIN) — Keaschall exploded onto the scene, swiping five bases in seven games with three doubles and an almost instant promotion to batting third before hitting the IL for the next three months. On his return, he again exploded, notching 10 hits in five games with two home runs and 10 RBI. While the speed and batting average stayed strong over the rest of the season, the power evaporated as he put up just an 85.1 mph average exit velocity and 3.4% barrel rate over his final 37 games. Power has never really been a big part of Keaschall’s game as he’s more of a hit tool and speed guy, and I think he can make some positive steps forward in 2026.
Keaschall should steal at least 20-25 bags next season and have excellent plate discipline and ratios, but whether he can hit more than 10 home runs remains up in the air. The risk associated with a player who has just 49 games in the majors (and who struggled more and more as he got more reps) has me hesitant to push Keaschall higher in these ranks.
89. Colson Montgomery (SS, CHW) — Montgomery was one of the best power hitters in the second half, whacking 21 home runs in 71 games by yanking a bunch of fly balls down the right field line. Pulling the ball is definitely part of Montgomery’s profile. Still, I’m struggling to understand how Montgomery took such a massive leap forward when making it to the big leagues on a team that, let’s be honest, has shown no real ability to develop players at the major-league level. The most home runs Montgomery had ever hit in a full season were 18, and it took 130 games for him to do it. Then, in 2025, he hits 32 total dingers by completely selling out for power (lowered his walk rate, raised his strikeout rate, and popped out a ton in Triple-A).
Is there a chance this is all real, and that he could hit 30 home runs with crummy ratios? Yes. Is there a chance that teams use the offseason to figure out how to stop Montgomery, and we have to drop him by May? Also yes. If you’re chasing power upside, you should star Montgomery on your board. If you need stability and scooped plenty of power early, you can let someone else take the risk.
Still, I did move Montgomery up 30 spots or so since October, largely because projections confirmed that they also believe in the power. If there’s any kind of gain in decision-making or contact ability, we could see even more excitement behind this guy.
90. Trent Grisham (OF/DH, NYY) — Grisham is coming off a late-career breakout season, hitting 34 home runs in 143 games while scoring 87 runs with a career-best 14.1% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate. Under the hood, everything looks kosher as the home runs came from pulling more fly balls and hitting the ball harder while making excellent swing decisions. It’s a perfect time to hit free agency, though it does add a level of uncertainty to his fantasy profile.
Grisham returning to the Yankees was an excellent outcome for his fantasy outlook, as he should start the season as the everyday leadoff man with very little competition for that job. He’s still not good against lefties, mind you, but he takes a ton of walks against pitchers from both sides, and as long as he gets on base, there’s a pretty darn good chance he’ll end up scoring.
91. Bryan Reynolds (OF/DH, PIT) — Reynolds was pretty awful in the first half, but performed more like the guy we thought he was in the second half, hitting for a solid average with a decent number of home runs. He doesn’t run, and the Pirates don’t have a strong enough offense to provide good runs scored or RBI totals consistently, but if Reynolds can be the guy we saw in the second half more often than he isn’t, this is a top-80 hitter. Unfortunately, the floor is quite awful even if he stays healthy, as we just saw him finish as the 139th-best hitter in fantasy. A trade likely boosts his fantasy value, but we’ve expected that to come for years, and it’s never been more than an “ought to” rumor, and with the Pirates pretending to build a competent roster, it’s even less likely for the time being.
92. Daulton Varsho (OF, TOR) — When healthy, Varsho was hitting better than we’d ever seen him hit, smacking 20 dingers in just 71 games, albeit with his typical poor batting average and even worse OBP. Varsho has always been a streaky hitter, though this spike was even hotter than any of his prior ones, and they did well to prevent the steep slumps that have often come with those spikes. Steals aren’t a big part of Varsho’s game anymore, but if he can keep flashing power and continue to hit fifth for the Blue Jays heading into 2026, we could be looking at a solid fantasy outfielder.
Again, this performance was well outside of the norm for Varsho, and it’s not as though we can reasonably expect a guy who hits this many fly balls to keep a 21.3% home-run-to-fly-ball rate, but even keeping just some of these improvements would be a big win. Otherwise, he goes back to being a low-end streamer.
93. Heliot Ramos (OF/DH, SFG) — Ramos ended the season as the leadoff man for the Giants despite a very pedestrian second half, and if I felt like he would keep that role, he would likely be ranked higher. Most of Ramos’s good times came in May and June, and for the rest of the season, he was mostly average or worse. If he were to find more consistency, this would be a top-75 bat with 25 home runs, 160 combined runs and RBI, and ratios that don’t hurt you, but I get the feeling he’ll be more of a top-50 player for two or three months and outside the top 150 the rest of the time. In roto, that works out just fine, but in head-to-head, it causes a bit of heartburn.
94. Kyle Stowers (OF, MIA) — Stowers was one of the best hitters in baseball back in July, smacking 10 home runs in 24 games and slashing .364/.451/.818 with an impressive blend of discipline, contact, and power. There’s no question that Stowers has the thump to slug over .500 for a season, but issues with contact in the zone and strikeouts have popped up over his short career, and those issues often spell volatility for power hitters. If he maintains the double-digit walk rate we saw in 2025 and keeps that zone contact rate north of 80% more often than he doesn’t, this is a guy who can hit .260-.270 with 30-35 home runs. If he can’t do those things, he’s more like a 30-35 home run guy that hits .220-.230.
Update: Stowers is already on the IL and thaty’
95. Ramón Laureano (OF/DH, SDP) — Laureano was remarkable in 2025, setting new career highs in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate by considerable margins, especially considering it was his age-30 season and already had more than 600 games in the majors when the season began. I’m often skeptical of late-career out-of-nowhere breakouts, though the strong expected stats and consistency he showed in 2025 make this one slightly more believable.
Injuries have always been an issue for Laureano, as he hadn’t played in more than 105 games since 2019 and averaged just 96.5 games played per season from 2021-2024. Asking Laureano to repeat a career year in both performance and health is a tall order, though if he does, this ranking would be 30 spots too low.
96. Lawrence Butler (OF, ATH) — Butler was a second-half breakout in 2024 and can’t be considered a total bust in 2025 as he did finish with 21 homers and 22 steals along with 83 runs scored. Still, Butler was basically unusable for fantasy against lefties (.570 OPS) and on the road (.633 OPS), and those limitations cap Butler’s ceiling in a big way. The road woes were likely just a bit of a random sample, but the plate discipline against lefties was atrocious with nearly ten strikeouts per walk (4.9% BB%, 39.8% K%). Butler should have better ratios and production in 2026 as he gets more experience, but unless he figures out how to tame left-handed pitching, he might wind up in a platoon.
Nate’s Note: I’m still not really sold on Colson Montgomery. The power is exceptional, but below-average contact and decision value could quickly make him prone to a sophomore slump. A questionable average and fringe counting stats put him in a tough spot at a really strong shortstop. On the other hand, I still like Teoscar Hernández. His only downside to his 106 Process+ is below-average contact, but the zone contact was actually up from 2024, and the power peripherals still look good. His BABIP also dropped from .344 to .283, which also seems like an overcorrection to his .326 career figure.
Tier 11
97. Jonathan Aranda (1B/DH, TBR) — Aranda was everything we hoped for and more when he was healthy, posting a robust 93.0 mph average exit velocity and hitting well against both righties and lefties (which is especially critical in Tampa, where they love to platoon their hitters). Injuries have been an issue in back-to-back seasons, though, and strikeouts became an issue as pitchers got more looks at Aranda (31.8% over his last 288 games). Our PLV metrics also found him to be a merely average decision-maker and subpar at making contact. Those risks force me to rank Aranda just a little lower than I’d like based on the quality of his contact skills, but if he can make some minor adjustments, we could see him rise through the ranks quickly. As a final note, moving back to the Trop shouldn’t change his power output, as he hit most of his home runs on the road.
98. Spencer Torkelson (1B/DH, DET) — Tork was much better in the first half than the second half, but he remained a functional back-end first baseman and corner infielder for the whole season, and he should return to a full-time role and hit another 30 home runs for the Tigers in 2026. I’m a bit concerned about the strikeout rate spikes and overall volatility, and I’m not convinced he’ll ever truly buck those trends, but the elevated walk rate helps a little. If you need plus power and not-bad counting stats and don’t care about a low batting average, Torkelson is your guy.
99. Sal Stewart (1B/3B, CIN) — Stewart doesn’t have nearly the same prospect pedigree as the others in this tier, but he does have an exceptional minor league track record, including a 152 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A in 2025 and five home runs in his first 18 major league games with a bunch of balls that he hit really hard.
Projections love what Sal Stewart brings to the table, with most major systems projecting him for 20+ home runs if he wins a full-time role. Even if he doesn’t, he could still threaten that mark with solid ratios. As of now, the Reds don’t have any real threat to Stewart’s chances at being a regular in the lineup, but they are known to do weird things in Cincy, and resigning a guy like Hays could cause Sal to drop hard in the ranks.
100. Willson Contreras (1B/DH, BOS) — Historically, when Willson Contreras plays more than 100 games, he finishes as a top-seven catcher, and 2025 was no exception. Contreras set a career-high mark in plate appearances, runs, and RBI, though the real story here is that he’s no longer a catcher. As purely a first baseman, Contreras fills a role when healthy by hitting near the heart of a lineup and probably driving in 70-80 runners if he gets into 130 games with decent ratios (for a guy in this portion of the player pool). Contreras is a floor guy for deeper leagues and might even spend some time on your roster if you get hit with injuries or are chasing ribbies.
101. Alec Burleson (1B/OF/DH, STL) — Burleson is best deployed in points leagues due to his low strikeout rate and his role in the middle of the order, and his ability to make contact keeps his floor very high when healthy. He should hit at least .280 in 2026, and there’s a chance he boosts his power a bit to something like 23-25 home runs. The lack of depth in the Cardinals’ lineup makes him a liability in runs scored, though, and his RBI totals will be more decent than good, but this is a good hitter who will help your bottom line.
Contreras gets a massive boost from the October ranks because he’s on a better team, plain and simple. And because I was just way too low on him.
102. Munetaka Murakami (3B, CHW) — Murakami is a high-risk, high-reward import from Japan who brings a ton of power and a ton of swing and miss to a team that, frankly, has done a poor job developing this type of player. Still, he’s definitely their first baseman for 2026 and should be eligible at third base in most leagues, as it was his primary position in Japan. I’m expecting a strikeout rate well over 30%, though he should also take some walks and hit 30 home runs in a full season. He could be ranked even higher in OBP formats, but in standard leagues, we’ll be lucky if he hits his weight (currently listed as 213).
In deeper formats, I would move Murakami close to where Kazuma Okamoto ended up, as he is the risky option with Okamoto being the safer option with lower upside, but in shallow formats, gimme the upside over the floor at this stage of the draft.
103. Jorge Polanco (2B/3B/DH, NYM) — The injury risk is the primary concern, as he spent time on the IL in 2025 and hasn’t played at least 140 games in a season since 2021, and he’s only played close to a full season three times in his career (with one of those being the shortened 2020 season). From 2022 to 2024, he missed over 40 games each year, though when he was healthy, he did hit for power. A healthy Polanco can be a top-75ish player with power who can cover at least one tricky position (he had five starts at third base, which qualifies him for the position in Yahoo leagues and almost nowhere else), but there remains significant risk that he misses a large chunk of the season at a spot where the replacement level is far from ideal.
Also, for what it’s worth, he’ll gain first base eligibility in April, but that’s not really where you’re likely to use him.
104. Luis Arraez (1B/2B/DH, SFG) — You should know all about what Luis Arraez is and what he can do by this point: he has a highly compact swing that he uses to pepper line drives all over the field. He’s had the lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters for four straight seasons, and his worst single-season batting average is .292 (which is what he hit in 2025).
Landing in San Francisco is rather ideal because they have a place for him to play in the infield, and they also need a full-time leadoff man. He wasn’t going to hit home runs anyway, so the park factors don’t matter.
105. Jacob Wilson (SS, ATH) — Wilson was on a collision course with the ROY award before a slump and an injury took him out of consideration. Wilson is a slap hitter through and through, as you can tell from his sub-30% hard-hit rate in the majors and minors, so expecting 20 home runs from him is likely to bring disappointment. If you’re asking for a .290-.300 batting average with solid counting stats, though, it should be there.
Wilson dropped over 40 spots from October as I got more and more worried that his hot start was a fluke and that he was really more of a Luis Arraez-type on a bad team. Still, there’s a chance there’s more upside than that, so he ranks slightly higher than Arraez.
106. Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL) — Albies was an enormous dud, based on his draft position, in the first half, finishing as the 34th-best second baseman, and it made even more devastating by the fact he had the second-most volume at the position, being out-earned by players with at least 100 fewer plate appearances, and in some cases 150+ fewer. Like his teammate Harris, though, Albies found a groove at the All-Star Break and then some, going on to be the third-best second baseman in the second half and looking almost like the unstoppable force we saw back in 2021 and 2023 (though not quite).
That said, our PLV metrics still think he has below-average pop even at his best, and his decision-making skills are bad far more often than they are good. It’s hard to get too excited about a guy whose profile suggests he’ll finish with fewer than 18 home runs and 15 steals with a middling batting average and counting stats with a floor a tier lower than that. Still, Albies was once much more than that and looked, if only for a moment, like he might be more than that again.
107. Ezequiel Tovar (SS, COL) — On the bright side, Tovar cleaned up the strikeout rate a bit and improved in most batted ball quality metrics when healthy in 2025. Unfortunately, Tovar wasn’t healthy all that often, appearing in just 95 games, and his actual production lagged behind the improved expected stats. Tovar’s ceiling is a top-80 hitter in standard leagues, who despite a sub-.300 OBP and playing for the worst team in the league can pile up 23-25 home runs with decent counting stats and a .260-.270 batting average (or in other words, what he did in 2024 but with a better strikeout rate to balance out the good luck he had that season), but the floor is much lower due to the at times ugly plate discipline and horrendous team around him.
Nate’s Note: This is a great spot to chase an infielder with upside, likely fitting into a corner or middle infield slot. Munetaka Murakami will be a boom-or-bust player who is worth the risk this late. Spencer Torkelson and Jorge Polanco also represent late power options that are riskier profiles. While not as risky, Willson Contreras also fits into this group of players for a corner-infield spot. He’s been a consistent contributor with 25 home run potential and is expected to be in the heart of the Red Sox lineup, which is great value this late among hitters.
I am all in on Sal Stewart. The hit tool is really strong, and his immediate ability to tap into power at the big league level excited me. The strikeout rate took a hit against MLB pitching (15.6% MiLB ->25.9% MLB), but that’s not a debilitating number if he’s able to reach his power. The Gavin Lux trade should open up full-time playing time for Stewart, and that’s where the excitement lies. His PLV projection for 600 plate appearances: .272 average and 31 home runs, ranking as the 21st overall hitter. Count me in.
Tier 12
108. Agustín Ramírez (C/DH, MIA) — The ratios were uglier than Baldwin’s, but Ramírez had quite the rookie year himself, hitting 21 home runs and swiping 16 bases, albeit with a .231 batting average and .287 OBP. Despite missing the first few weeks of the season, Ramírez finished with 136 games (585 plate appearances) under his belt and is poised to get to 150 games in 2026, assuming he stays healthy. Ramírez’s spotty decision-making will likely keep his batting average somewhat low. Still, if he adds just a touch of patience (he posted double-digit walk rates in the majors), he could find a bit more consistency and provide solid value as an everyday player eligible at catcher.
109. Alejandro Kirk (C/DH, TOR) — Kirk set a new career high in home runs with 15, edging out his original breakout in 2022 when he hit 14, and this version is a bit more believable than the first. In his 2022 campaign, Kirk exploded with power for about a month and a half, then reverted to being a line-drive machine who hit for average and no power. In 2025, showed above-average power at several points in the season. For a catcher, 15 home runs isn’t too bad a ceiling, and the floor, thanks to the contact ability and decision-making, is high. Throw in plenty of RBI (again, for a catcher), and you’ve got a solid back-end piece.
110. Xavier Edwards (2B/SS, MIA) — Edwards only stole bases at about half the rate he did in his electric 2024, but he did all the other things we expected, hitting very few home runs, showing solid plate discipline, and providing a strong batting average. I expect those things again in 2026, as he should steal 30-35 bases and hit fewer than five home runs while hitting .280-.290. Not everyone will require his services, but he’s a locked-in, everyday player with speed and solid ratios that can fill both middle-infield roles.
111. Kerry Carpenter (OF/DH, DET) — Carpenter has missed time throughout his career due to injury and being platooned against lefties, and both of those things are likely to happen again in 2026. Still, when healthy and in the lineup, Carpenter has 30-35 home run pop and will be in a prime lineup position to take advantage of it. He’s a frustrating player at times, but if you need power and can afford to use a bench spot on a hitter, Carpenter, plus a replacement-level outfielder, can be a strong combination. In those scenarios, I’d bump Kerry Bonds up a tier, but recognize that in many 12-teamers, your bench is mostly reserved for streaming pitchers.
112. Yainer Diaz (C/1B/DH, HOU) — Like most of the Astros offense, Diaz got off to a miserably slow start, but did manage to hit 20 home runs in 2025. The batting average took a 43-point step backward, though under the hood, it looks like he was more a victim of bad luck than skill regression. Between the volume and counting stats, Diaz should finish as a top-10 catcher as long as he doesn’t bottom out for a month as he did in 2025.
113. Gleyber Torres (2B/DH, DET) — Torres faded in the second half due to a sports hernia, but put together solid counting stats with excellent plate discipline thanks to his role hitting second for the Tigers. The Torres we saw in 2024 and 2025, who can hit 15-16 home runs and bat .255-.260, is likely the one we see again in 2026.
A return to the Tigers was a good fit for both teams, and it also benefits Torres’s fantasy value, as he should return to a spot at or near the top of the lineup and put in yeoman’s work with counting stats and a little bit of everything. He’s not an exciting player, but he is a valuable one.
114. Adley Rutschman (C/DH, BAL) — In what has been roughly a full season for Rutschman since July 1, 2024, he’s hit .209/.294/.332 with just 13 home runs and 114 combined runs and RBI. In contrast, in the 346 games before July 1, 2024, Rutschman was an elite hitter at his position, with a 130 wRC+ and an average of 22 home runs, 91 runs scored, and 82 RBI over 160 games. I couldn’t tell you why or how he fell off so steeply, but it’s the reality we’ve faced for over a year now. I rank Rutschman because I do think he could bounce back and be a top-five catcher again, though the path to that outcome isn’t very clear to me.
115. Marcus Semien (2B, NYM) — For the first time since 2017, Semien missed more than seven games in a season. Semien has immense mileage on his tires, and now has back-to-back seasons with a batting average below .240 and a slugging percentage below .400. While Semien did show sparks of life at times in the summer, he only managed a single month with a wRC+ above 100. I’m not too excited about jumping back in on a player who, since the middle of 2024, has a single good month of baseball to his name. Still, I won’t deny that the career track record is fantastic, and that he was legitimately excellent in June of 2025.
Joining the Mets is an interesting move for Semien, though it’s not the only reason he jumped over 50 spots since my October ranks. Part of the jump is just a little more time to see how projections handle Semien’s down year, but the other is indeed his new home. Semien will likely hit near the middle of this lineup, and while that means a potentially lower ceiling on runs scored, it should provide better overall totals than he saw in Texas as he’ll hit behind Lindor, Soto, Bichette, and Polanco. The floor is still fairly low, as we saw throughout 2025, but it should be a touch higher on a more potent offense, and if Semien does, in fact, regain his prior form, he’ll be a very solid second baseman.
116. Xander Bogaerts (SS/DH, SDP) — Xander Bogaerts has appeared in 1,666 games in his career, and all of that mileage means his best days are behind him. At this stage of his career, Bogaerts can reliably keep a strikeout rate below 20%, steal 15 bases, and hit double-digit home runs with a .260 average. I don’t think the ceiling is much higher than that, and the floor is much lower, but in deep leagues, there’s comfort in bankable stats, and that’s something Xander does provide.
117. Wilyer Abreu (OF/DH, BOS) — Injuries and platoons cut Abreu’s season short, which is a bummer because when we saw flashes of a solid player, especially in his first 42 games, where he hit .281/.375/.555 with 11 home runs and four steals. Injuries and strikeout issues plagued him over the rest of the season, though, and over his final 73 games, he hit just .225 with a .278 OBP, though he did manage to hit another 11 home runs. Abreu is likely to find himself on the large side of another platoon this season, though the upside if he can find a full-time role is that of a streaky top-75 hitter who provides plus power and counting stats and inconsistent ratios.
118. Alec Bohm (1B/3B, PHI) — After back-to-back seasons of 97 RBI, Bohm disappointed by delivering just 59 in 2026 due to a combination of injury and poor performance throughout the season. He had been carved into the cleanup role for the last few seasons, but due to a slow start and never really finding his groove until late in the year, Bohm spent quite a bit of time hitting in the bottom half of the order, and it showed us that his value is tied to his lineup position. Bohm doesn’t have the power or speed to make an impact unless there is a steady stream of runners on base for him to drive home with singles and doubles (and the occasional home run). If he returns to the four-spot (as he did by the end of the year), he can outperform this rank, but the risk if Bohm doesn’t hold that spot is a hitter who can’t quite crack the top 100 even on his good days.
119. Daylen Lile (OF/DH, WSN) — What a debut for Daylen Lile, who crushed his way through the high minors and earned a spot in the Nationals’ plans by hitting .299/.346/.498 in his rookie season and being a top-40 hitter in the second half. Lile brings a line-drive heavy approach with fantastic contact ability, and while that approach and swing plane limit his home run upside, it provides a path to repeating that .299 batting average, and he should have enough pop and speed to get to double digits in both categories. Lile wasn’t a very efficient base stealer, converting just 8 of 14 attempts, but that could improve a bit with experience. Counting stats will be a question mark, as this offense is not exactly high-octane, but Lile could quickly become one of the premier batting average contributors by the end of 2026. Those in OBP leagues, though, should probably drop him due to his below-average walk rate.
120. Mike Trout (OF/DH, LAA) — Mike Trout played in 130 games for the first time since 2019, and unfortunately, the results weren’t quite what we hoped for as he finished outside the top-120 hitters in standard leagues due to a career-high 32% strikeout rate and a career-low .439 slug. Trout’s strikeout rate really spun out of control at the end of the season, and while an elevated strikeout rate and lower batting average aren’t a huge surprise, I expect Trout to clean this up a bit heading into 2026. Obviously, this is still Mike Trout, a guy with 87.2 fWAR over his career and who still can put up excellent barrel and hard-hit rates, so there’s still a ceiling that a 120+ game season provides a top-80 hitter, and if you’re going to take a shot, why not in the outfield and why not with one of the best hitters of this generation?
Nate’s Note: I think Alec Bohm’s value is flying quite under the radar as a batting average producer with good counting stats in Philly. It’s a relatively unexciting pick, but he could be a great third baseman to pair with a riskier play at a thin position. I don’t have any issues with the rest of the tier, though, as I like the upside plays in Trout, Lewis, and Lile.
Tier 13
121. Caleb Durbin (2B/3B, BOS) — Durbin is a line-drive focused hitter who puts a ton of balls in play while hitting in the bottom third of the Red Sox lineup. Durbin should return to a similar role in 2026, and what we saw in those 136 games is more or less what I’d expect from a player with his tools. There will be times that the BABIP wheel spins in his favor more than usual and gets folks talking about him, but ultimately, this is a guy who will just barely clear 10 home runs per year, steal 16-20 bases, and have poor counting stats and a slightly positive batting average (but a poor OBP). You can bump him up in points leagues, though, as he rarely strikes out.
Virtually nothing changes for Durbin landing in Boston, except maybe a slightly better batting average on fly balls that bounce off the Green Monster.
122. Kazuma Okamoto (3B, TOR) — Okamoto looks like the third baseman for the Blue Jays in 2026, and while he doesn’t bring the explosive power of Murakami, he does bring a very safe floor as a guy who can hit 20 home runs, hopefully hit .260, and play most of the time. He may well end up being a better player in fantasy than Murakami due to Murakami’s potential to crash and burn due to the strikeout issues, but he’s also unlikely to be more than a decent backend option at third.
I wouldn’t love leaving my draft with Okamoto as my starting third baseman due to the risk that he struggles to adapt quickly (as has been the case with many players from Japan for a variety of reasons), but as a bench guy, he makes a ton of sense.
123. Konnor Griffin (SS/OF, PIT) — If your league allows you to stash players with a minor league spot or a deep bench, move Griffin up a tier or two, as he’s the premier stash in the game. There’s incredibly little chance he breaks camp with the big club, which isn’t the worst thing in the world (he only notched 98 plate appearances in AA).
Griffin has exceptional power and lightning speed, along with a maturing (but not yet mature) hit tool, and will be the talk of the time when he makes the big leagues. The only real question is when that will happen. I’d take the slight under on 120 games played for Griffin in 2026, and it may be rough going upon initial callup, but make no mistake: this is baseball’s best prospect.
Update: Missing the Opening Day roster isn’t really a setback for Griffin as we didn’t really expect him to make it unless he signed a contract. Look for Griffin within about a month or so. His power and speed still make him the most enticing of the rookies for the course of the season, even when giving the other guys a head start.
124. Kevin McGonigle (SS, DET) — As of this writing, there’s no opening in the Tigers’ infield, but McGonigle was a revelation in the Arizona Fall League and has impressed at big league camp.
McGonigle will be a stud in points leagues right away, as he has walked more than he’s struck out at every level in the minor leagues, but his contributions in category leagues will be up to how often he can pull fly balls. There’s 20+ home run upside if he gets to that quickly.
Update: Making the Opening Day roster was great for McGonigle, and it may not take long for him to shoot to the top of this lineup. In the meantime, though, he’ll hit somewhere in the bottom half of the order.
125. JJ Wetherholt (SS, STL) — Wetherholt hit the ball well in Triple-A and should hit for a high average with 17-20 home runs and 15-20 steals as a full-season starter for the Red Birds, and should gain eligibility at second base sometime in April, depending on your format.
Wetherholt certainly has plus power, but to date he’s mostly been a line drive and grounder guy in the minors, which boosts ratios but not homers. There’s a bit of risk that he struggles out of the gate with too many balls on the ground as he adapts to major league pitching, but hopefully Wetherholt can weather the storm and find a way to sock a couple dingers before too long.
Update: Wetherholt is stepping into the best lineup spot of this group of rookies, as he looks like the Cardinals’ leadoff man from the jump. While he doesn’t have a ton of speed or raw power, his hit tool will annoy the crud out of opposing pitchers immediately.
126. Jac Caglianone (1B/OF/DH, KCR) — Caglianone has oodles of upside, though he was positively miserable in his 232 plate appearances in 2025. While Cags avoided strikeouts, he hit far too many grounders and wasn’t able to really tap into any of his prodigious power.
He gets a significant jump in these ranks because of what could now be a spot closer to the middle of the order. The strong spring numbers are cool too, but only insofar as they land him a more secure role in a top-heavy offense.
127. Max Muncy (3B, LAD) — Muncy returns to LA for one more round, and when on the field, he should continue to be a power-hitting third baseman with a poor batting average and a strong OBP. The only issue, really, is the “on the field” bit. Muncy has never been known as durable, but he has played in just over half of his team’s games over the last two seasons combined, and it’s hard to imagine that at age 35, he’s going to be less of a risk. He’s a nice add if you’re light on power late, just be careful in deeper leagues as he’s almost certain to miss 40-50 games (if not more).
128. Giancarlo Stanton (OF/DH, NYY) — Stanton missed half the season due to injury, which was even more than usual, but sure enough, he hit his way to 24 home runs and 66 RBI with a .273 batting average. Stanton is going to miss time, that much is certain, but when healthy, he’s an elite power contributor and was even a top-20 hitter overall in the second half. Given more plate appearances, the bad side of Giancarlo would likely have reared its ugly head (tons of strikeouts, too many pop-ups) to level out his numbers a bit, but if you’ve got space to take on some risk in 12-teamers, this is not a bad lotto ticket to pick up. In deeper leagues, though, the certainty of missed time due to injury has a much greater impact, and you might drop him a tier or so.
129. Royce Lewis (3B/DH, MIN) — You know the drill: Lewis is a player with explosive upside and who has never stayed healthy. He missed the first month of 2025 due to injury and struggled for the entire first half before finding a groove mid-way through August, hitting eight home runs and stealing 11 bases in his final 38 games – a 33 home run, 46 steal pace if he somehow played a full season. Odds are this won’t be the case, but third base is a challenging position to fill, and if you want to play the upside game, there are few players this far down the list who have flashed the skills we’ve seen from a healthy Royce Lewis.
130. Brenton Doyle (OF/DH, COL) — Doyle didn’t give us the season we hoped for after his strong 2024, but he picked it up in the second half, slashing .282/.307/.462 with power and speed. The slumps are horrible, and he’s impossible to trust away from Coors, but Doyle should be a bit stronger in 2026 and could provide 20 home runs and 25 steals. The ratios will be poison, and he’s not an automatic start even when he’s hot if he’s away from home, but there is production and upside to be had from Doyle.
131. Gabriel Moreno (C/DH, ARI) — Moreno missed about two months over the summer due to injury, and injuries have been a common occurrence for the young catcher. When healthy, Moreno excels at hitting for average and providing excellent ratios for his position, and in 2025, we saw Moreno get more balls in the air, leading to a career high of nine home runs in 83 games. If he can keep up the fly balls and stay healthy, Moreno will be a steal at a pick anywhere close to these rankings, but to date, we’ve never really seen him sustain either of those things. Even if he doesn’t, though, the ratios and counting stats should make him a useful backend backstop.
132. Christian Walker (1B, HOU) — Walker got off to an incredibly slow start as an Astro, winding up on many waiver wires by the All-Star Break as he hit just .229/.286/.374. He looked much more like himself in the second half, though, especially in the power department, as his .488 slugging was 114 points higher than it was in the first half. While that strong finish helped Walker squeeze into the top-100 hitters on the FanGraphs Player Rater for 2025, I can’t shake the concerns that volatility and extended slumps may be more common for Walker than in the past as he enters his age-35 season, especially with the below-average walk rate he showed throughout the season. Walker could be a 30-home run hitter with 85+ RBI in 2026, though, between the falling walk rate and rising strikeout rate, the floor for Walker is a guy who finishes outside the top-200.
Update: Walker is one of the biggest fallers in my most recent update, mostly because I find so many other first base options more interesting and have a bad feeling that projections are giving him too much credit for a strong second half.
Nate’s Note: For Max Muncy, was it just as simple as wearing glasses? That change made him more viable than ever in average leagues, as he hit .264 from May 1st and on. I think he’s worth the shot because you’ll know within the first few weeks if the batting average is real or not.
Tier 14
133. Otto Lopez (2B/SS, MIA) — Lopez is a jack-of-all-trades as a fantasy contributor, evidenced by his 2025, where he provided mostly neutral values in all five categories. While he doesn’t give you a big boost anywhere, he also doesn’t really hurt you anywhere, and that’s more valuable than you might think. Lopez’s batted ball quality and distribution suggest he should hit better than .246 in 2026 (more like .260-.270), and I expect the rest of his stats to be more or less repeated next season as the Marlins’ starting shortstop (though in fantasy, he’ll more likely be your second baseman).
134. Bryson Stott (2B/SS, PHI) — Stott struggles to break his slumps, and in 2025, that led to a miserable 63-game stretch where he slashed .196/.266/.274 and was not rosterable in mixed leagues. Annoyingly, Stott was quite excellent in the month leading up to that slump and in the two months that followed, and it’s not the first time Stott has performed in this manner. The final results of the 2026 season will likely have him somewhere in the top-80 to top-120 hitters, depending on how long the inevitable slump lasts, and if you need a second baseman and/or speed, Stott is a fine gamble to take in the late rounds.
135. Luis García Jr. (2B/DH, WSN) — The Nats seem to prefer to platoon García, which makes sense given his career 59 wRC+ against same-sided pitching. We know what García brings to the table at this point: 16-18 homers, double-digit steals, and a decent batting average with a low strikeout rate. Points leaguers probably appreciate what García can do more than anyone else, and OBP leaguers likely appreciate him the least, as he has a career .299 OBP. He’s a replacement-level second baseman, though one with a fairly solid floor.
136. Noelvi Marte (3B/OF/DH, CIN) — When Marte is good, he’s excellent. He was raking before being slapped with an 80-game PED suspension (three home runs and four steals in 14 games with 16 RBI) and also showed his upside when he returned, slashing .288/.328/.508 for 48 games in July and August. When Marte is bad, though, he’s horrendous. For the final 23 games of the season, Marte had a .502 OPS with 32 strikeouts to just three walks and five total extra-base hits. We’ve seen this narrative throughout his career, from his exciting 2023 debut to his incredibly disappointing 2024 and what I just described in 2025.
If we were talking about upside alone, this is a guy who could hit 25 home runs, steal 15 bases (it would have been higher, but Francona is much less aggressive than the prior manager), and hit .270 (albeit with a crummy OBP because he doesn’t walk). Unfortunately, the floor is especially low based on what we’ve seen, and he’s not yet shown he can break out of those slumps in-season.
137. Brendan Donovan (2B/SS/OF, SEA) — Brendan Donovan faded hard down the stretch, mostly due to injury, but when healthy, he was a solid, if unspectacular, hitter who could hit .280 or better and score runs while leading off due to an elite ability to make contact. He doesn’t do much else, though, and injuries have been an issue in two of the last three years.
A move to Seattle probably boosts his run-scoring opportunities a bit, though the fact that his power is quite limited, combined with his durability issues, still apply so his overall outlook doesn’t really change.
When healthy, look for 13-15 home runs, decent counting stats, and excellent ratios from a guy who can cover second base in all formats and shortstop in some others, and in points leagues, Donovan should be moved up a tier.
138. Matt McLain (2B/SS, CIN) — Expectations were high for McLain coming into 2025, but unfortunately, he fell quite short of them despite staying healthy. McLain was unable to overcome his high strikeout rate, saw his line-drive rate drop significantly, and saw his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio nearly cut in half. Put those things together, and you get a .220 hitter who failed to reach 20 home runs or 20 steals. The ink isn’t totally dry on McLain quite yet, as an offseason to adjust could help him find the consistency he needs to hit 20 homers, steal 20 bags, and get out of the bottom of the order, and the Reds will give him every chance to make that happen. I wouldn’t be banking on a McLain resurgence to power my team, but in the late rounds of a draft where you need some upside and support in the middle infield, McLain might make sense.
139. Jordan Beck (OF/DH, COL) — If Beck didn’t play half his games in Coors, he might not be on this list (though in fairness, had a better organization developed him, he might be a more well-rounded hitter). Beck has the power to reach 20 home runs if he plays his cards right and the wheels to swipe 20 bases, though, like most Rockies hitters, he’s more or less unusable on the road. He also struggles with strikeouts, and it got worse as the season wore on, as he was called out on strikes 31.9% of the time in the second half, with an average walk rate. Limiting the strikeouts would make Beck more interesting as he’d be less prone to volatility, but either way, he’ll be a very streamable outfielder who provides power and speed with decent ratios as long as you don’t start him on the road.
140. Isaac Paredes (3B/DH, HOU) — Paredes’ season was limited to 102 games due to an injury over the summer, but what we saw from him appeared to be a return to his 31-home run form from 2023 as he smacked 20 home runs with excellent plate discipline. Paredes isn’t going to jump off the page with his batted ball quality, but the master of the pulled fly ball should find a way back to 30 home runs, should he stay healthy in 2026 (though he’s missed 19 or more games in three of the last four seasons) AND find a way into the normal lineup.
Paredes dropped over 50 spots from his October ranks, and that’s entirely because the Astros may be content to let Paredes sit on the bench against righties and let Correa be the starting third baseman. I feel this is a depressing outcome for a guy who absolutely has what it takes to be an everyday bat, but we will have to see how this all plays out. There are several teams that could use his services if he were made available, though with his uncertain health, teams may wait until the spring to see if he’s ready to play before thinking about a trade.
141. Willi Castro (2B/3B/OF, COL) — Willi Castro is interesting because he’s in Coors. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, nor does he force himself into most lineups every day, but in Coors Field, his limited power and willingness to spray the ball should turn into something like 15 home runs and a .260 batting average as an everyday player (which he can be for the talent-starved Rockies). He might even steal 15 bases, too. Those in deeper formats that utilize a middle and corner infield spot (like the NFBC format) should move him to the top of this tier, though, as he can be plugged into many of the most difficult spots to replace on the wire (MI, CI, and OF), which helps keep you flexible when looking for replacement options on the wire.
142. Chase Meidroth (2B/SS, CHW) — Meidroth doesn’t have much power, but he does have strong plate discipline and upside to hit north of .270 with 15 steals and double-digit home runs, plus he should be the everyday leadoff man for the White Sox on Opening Day. There’s more ceiling than his projections suggest, but don’t confuse that for a high ceiling, as Meidroth is still mostly a slap-hitter. He’s a floor player in the middle infield.
143. Samuel Basallo (C, BAL) — Basallo will start the season with the big league club as a second catcher and DH, though a platoon looks pretty likely (at least to start the year). There’s upside for 30 home runs (his average exit velocity in Triple-A was 94.2 mph), though he’ll need to figure out how to chase a lot less in the majors and avoid falling behind in the count so often. If you choose to skip a catcher until the end of the draft, Basallo’s big power makes him an enticing lottery ticket.
144. Carlos Correa (3B/SS, HOU) — It’s all too easy to look at the numbers Correa had when he returned to Houston and feel like he’s going to have a much better season in 2026; however, the truth is rarely so simple. Correa actually hit the ball harder in Minnesota (by about 1.5 mph, on average), and the other batted ball quality metrics were not different enough to explain the big difference in production.
So where did this success come from? His line drive rate. In Minnesota, he had a line drive rate of 20.7%, which is roughly in line with his career norms. In Houston? 27.1%. That gave him the eighth-best line drive rate among qualified hitters from August 1 to the end of the season. That is very unlikely to continue in 2026, though he can still be a very useful contributor at two critical positions while batting fourth for this top-heavy offense. In deeper formats that require a middle infielder and corner infielder, you might consider moving Correa into the previous tier.
145. Andrew Vaughn (1B/DH, MIL) — Vaughn’s stunning demotion and move to Milwaukee are the story of his 2025, but there are reasons to believe his 2026 could be a little less bumpy. Vaughn should get the chance to win an everyday role next spring (despite his fairly poor showing to end the season and in the playoffs) with Rhys Hoskins out of the picture, and an offseason with the Brewers could help him take a step forward in a way the White Sox never could. To really unlock his power, Vaughn would need to get a lot better at pulling balls in the air (or even just pulling the ball at all), and I don’t expect that to happen, but if it did, he’d be a very solid fantasy first baseman.
146. Chase DeLauter (OF, CLE) — Injuries have made it tough for the top Cleveland prospect, though in the 42 games he did manage to play in the minors this season, he showed excellent plate discipline and plenty of pop (51.9% hard-hit rate). In his brief playoff debut, DeLauter did show us the plate discipline, though he struggled to do much else.
DeLauter has the potential to be a 20+ home run hitter as early as 2026, though the batting average might be a challenge based on his minor league stats. Grounders were elevated in 2025, which is something to watch, as it could keep him from reaching his power potential. Still, the opportunity to be an everyday hitter near the middle of the order is there for him, even if it comes with some significant platoon risk if he struggles.
147. Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — Cowser had a miserable second half, which may very well be because he apparently played through two fractured ribs. Cowser could still give us a repeat of his 2024, where he finished as a top-30 outfielder with plus power and counting stats, but the strikeout issues have gotten worse over his career and threaten to keep him stuck in a platoon. If you’re chasing some power late in the draft, Cowser can provide that for you, and I’m willing to believe that the ribs were the real cause of his problems, but if he can’t get that strikeout rate below 30% in short order, he’ll be a streamer.
It’s also worth noting that Cowser is unlikely to win back the leadoff role he had at times in 2024 and 2025, and is more likely to hit near the bottom of the order. I think he’s safe from being platooned at the moment, but if he should struggle again, it could get ugly.
148. Jake Burger (1B, TEX) — Burger still has home run power and what appears to be a starting role at first base for the Rangers. He should hit near the middle of the order, too. The ratios will probably hurt you, and he could bottom out entirely, but 25 home runs should be there.
149. Jackson Holliday (2B/SS/DH, BAL) — Not every top prospect breaks out immediately, and Holliday represents one of those guys who has flopped a bit but who might still find success over a slower burn. While Holliday’s power faded hard at the end of the season, there was a light at the end of the tunnel in that his decision-making and contact numbers dramatically improved, and critically, an improvement across the board against breaking pitches (see below). If he can maintain even half of these improvements in 2026, we should be looking at an excellent leadoff hitter who can hit 20 home runs, swipe 20 bags, and score 85+ runs with good ratios; however, it’s a tall order that is as likely to produce varying results in 2026 as it is to work out.
It’s possible Holliday misses most of April, but even then I’m more than happy to scoop him up a little earlier than he’s gone in recent drafts and stick him on the IL. In fact, this might be too low considering the appalling lack of upside at the position.
150. Chandler Simpson (OF, TBR) — Simpson came to the bigs with a lot of fanfare about stealing 104 bases in 110 games across Low-A and Double-A last season, and his 44 steals in 104 games put him on a pace to fall just short of 70 steals in a full season. Simpson is all speed and batting average, to put it mildly, as he did not have a single barrel across his 376 batted-ball events and ranked dead last in the majors in average exit velocity.
There’s some risk with a platoon, because despite Simpson hitting .299 against lefties, all 32 of his hits were singles, and despite his speed, he’s been quite bad in the field; but even with 120-130 starts, he should get to 70 steals (with the upside for 80+) and continue to hit .290 with some runs scored. Just keep in mind that he will likely sit once or twice a week and that he’ll be a big negative in RBI and power. I’d drop him a tier in points and OBP leagues, too.
Nate’s Note: I’m still hunting for Isaac Paredes, who could easily put up 25 home runs in a full-time role. Projections will never like him for the extreme pulled-fly-ball approach, but it should be working too well to ignore. I’m also a believer in second-half surger Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn’s miracle run with the Brewers might’ve been a mirage, but I believe the plate discipline gains he made in a new organization are real. He’s .250/20 HR bat right in the middle of the Brewers lineup, which is good value down here.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads, @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
