The prospect list is my favorite article to write. Early in the season, there is plenty of fluctuation in these rankings. Things change quickly and if you are too slow to react, the rankings become outdated. At the same time, there are some prospects that dynasty managers need to be patient with. A slow two months does not define the type of player a prospect will become in the years to come. If you like a prospect stay patient, but also don’t be too slow to react. Keep reading to find the latest update on my top 100 prospects for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues.
Prospect List Rules:
- All players must have prospect eligibility.
- This list is only for prospects in the minor leagues; no major league players are included.
- Maximum of two positions listed per player.
- Primarily weighted for standard 5×5 leagues, but all league types are considered.
Prospect List Graduates:
This section of the prospect list is reserved for players who have recently been promoted to the Major Leagues. This month, the following prospects were promoted to Majors and would have landed inside of this list: Connor Norby, Brooks Lee, James Wood, Christian Scott, Jonatan Clase, Justin Wrobleski, Jacob Wilson, Nacho Alvarez Jr., David Festa, and Max Meyer. I realized this month that Jasson Domínguez was previously forgotten from this list due to his time in the Major Leagues. He has been re-added to the list below.
Top 50 Prospect Notes
Brayden Taylor, #33 Tampa Bay Rays
One of the biggest risers in this month’s update is Brayden Taylor. The Rays selected Taylor in the first round of last year’s draft out of TCU. Drafted for his power, Taylor crushed 23 home runs in his final collegiate season and is showing plus power potential now at the professional level. Taylor hit five home runs in a small 25-game sample last season and is already up to 13 this season. Not the biggest player (6’0″), Taylor taps into his power differently. He has an excellent feel for his pull-side pop. He is pulling the ball over 46% of the time this year which is helping to fuel his home run totals.
In Taylor’s first full professional season, he is quickly proving to be more than just a power threat. For new professionals, one of the most impressive traits is plate discipline. After being one of the best athletes throughout their entire lives, understanding the strike zone and developing patience often requires a maturing process. Through 80 games in High-A, Taylor owns a 16% walk rate. Taylor’s patience at the plate also allows him to get more pitches that he can damage. His ability to lay off the junk outside of the zone forces pitchers to come over the plate more often leading to plenty of fireworks from Taylor.
There is even more to like in Taylor’s profile. Taylor has already stolen 25 bases this season. While his speed profiles as closer to average, his baseball instincts are excellent. Base stealing is about more than just pure speed. Taylor’s understanding of the game allows him to steal more bases than his pure speed suggests. His hit tool is also fantastic. Taylor has posted strong contact rates so far in his first full season. One of my favorite parts of his game is his ability to deposit line drives. So many of the flashy prospects in today’s game struggle to consistently get the ball in the air. This season, Taylor’s line drive rate sits over 25% and is almost equal to his ground ball rate. Line drives are great for his BABIP projections and should provide a stable batting average floor.
This season, Taylor has split time almost evenly between third base and shortstop. With suspect range at short, Taylor’s long-term home is likely to come at third base. Regardless of where Taylor ends up playing the field, he is going to be a big-time fantasy asset. Taylor is showing off plus power, plus plate discipline, a strong hit tool, and the ability to steal 20+ bases in a season. The best part is that he is likely only going to get better as he continues to develop. He is one of only three Minor League players to have at least 20 steals, 10 homers, and a walk rate north of 15%. The other two batters are Blake Mitchell and Alex Freeland. Taylor gets a big bump up in this month’s edition of the stash list and could continue rising as the season moves along.
Jackson Ferris, #45 Los Angeles Dodgers
The second biggest mover from the top 50 is Jackson Ferris. Ferris joined the Dodgers’ organization in an off-season trade that sent Michael Busch to Chicago. The other piece of that deal, Zyhir Hope, made headlines early in the season, but it has been all about Ferris lately who continues to climb up this list. After being drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft, Ferris made his professional debut last season. At 19, he pitched exclusively at Low-A firing 56 innings with a 3.38 ERA.
Ferris is a tall, lanky, left-handed pitcher. He features a big leg kick in his delivery but repeats his motion well. A straight-over slot and good extension provide him with additional deception.
His best pitch is a mid-90s fastball, which he can blow past hitters at the top of the zone. He gets a high rate of whiffs on the pitch and it is clearly his most comfortable pitch. Ferris also works a sinker variation down in the zone to help induce ground balls. His curveball and slider are both still works in progress, but the low 80s curve can be especially filthy. The pitch has a bit more bend than his slider and is his best strikeout pitch. His slider lacks consistency but could turn into a plus offering for him as he continues developing. Pitching at 20 years old for the entirety of the 2024 season, there is plenty to like in Ferris’ profile.
The Dodgers aggressively sent Ferris to High-A Great Lakes to start the season. Things got off to a bit of a rocky start for Ferris who surrendered five runs in two of his first three starts. Since then, Ferris has settled in nicely proving to be an anchor for the Great Lakes pitching staff. In the 16 starts since those first three, Ferris owns a 3.18 ERA and has been especially dominant as of late. Ferris has thrown at least six innings in each of his previous four starts owning a 1.04 ERA across that time frame. Ferris has seen his strikeout rate jump to 32% across those four starts including striking out top pick Travis Bazzanza in his first professional at-bat:
Top #Dodgers LHP prospect Jackson Ferris struck out the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft Travis Bazzana in his first professional at-bat pic.twitter.com/6Gt3LMym4C
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) July 26, 2024
Adding to the hype has been the improvements Ferris has made to his walk rate. After walking 13.9% of batters last season, Ferris has lowered his walk rate down to 10.3% this year. Across his last six starts, Ferris is only walking 6.3% of batters. His 1.93 ERA in those starts comes with a 1.84 FIP proving that this run of success is no fluke. As they so often do, the Dodgers have unlocked a new level of potential in Ferris, turning him into one of the game’s top pitching prospects. Ferris is also 3.2 years younger than the average High-A player. While Ferris is not a finished product, the sky is the limit here, making now the last chance for dynasty managers to get in at a reasonable price.
Prospect List Part 1
Back-Half Top 100 Prospect Notes
Cooper Pratt, #85 Milwaukee Brewers
One of the new faces on this month’s list is Cooper Pratt. The Brewers selected Pratt in the sixth round of last year’s draft. For those who do not know, rounds do not mean nearly as much in the MLB Draft as in other professional sports. Pratt was not a sixth-round talent, but his commitment to Ole Miss seemed so strong, that many MLB organizations felt he would be unsignable if drafted. The Brewers had to pay up for Pratt signing him for $1.35 million and he is already seeming to be worth the investment.
Pratt had a strong showing in his 12-game professional debut last season. Pratt collected 16 hits in 45 at-bats at the Complex Level providing a glimpse of things to come. While the average was great, a swinging strike rate of over 25% created some concern over his hit tool moving forward.
When you see a swinging strike rate like that from a 6’4″ player, the first impression is that Pratt is a power-over-hit profile. The truth is actually the complete opposite. Pratt has excellent bat speed and barrel control, which he uses to spray the ball all over the park. He is willing to take what the pitcher gives him and send the ball to the opposite field. He also hits line drives at a rate unlike many others. Pratt’s line drive rate this season sits over 30%, which is helping to fuel a .361 BABIP and a .295 batting average. The contact concerns that seemed present at the end of last season have completely disappeared. Pratt’s swinging strike rate sits at just 9.1%. His hit tool looks like a clear positive and strong plate discipline provides even more value.
All this talk about Pratt’s hit tool and he has the physical projection to turn into a top-tier power hitter. His 6’4″ frame needs some filling out but if it does… watch out. Pratt has just three home runs this season, but he is still learning how to use his body to hit home runs. On the bright side, Pratt’s pull rate sits up over 44% this season which will lead to more power. Still just 19, the power is going to come. Another bonus for dynasty managers is that Pratt also has 25 stolen bases. He has the rate potential to be a five-category fantasy asset if he reaches his ceiling. He lands at 85 in his Prospect List debut.
Cooper Kinney, #98 Tampa Bay Rays
For those of you who follow along with this article, Kinney is not a new name. Kinney popped up in last month’s article highlighting some players who just missed cracking the top 100. Well, after watching him a couple of more times, I am convinced Kinney deserves a spot inside of the top 100. After an injured shoulder cost him the entirety of the 2022 season, Kinney returned to the diamond last season without much fanfare. He posted respectable numbers in Low-A batting .274 with 10 homers and a 110 wRC+. Still, the dynasty community was slow to catch on to the Rays’ versatile infielder.
A slow start to the 2024 season did not do much to change the opinions of prospect evaluators, but that is all changing now. Kinney has been on fire at the plate while playing all over Bowling Green’s infield. Kinney has started games at first, second, and third base this season. While his season-long numbers look strong, the past six weeks have been especially impressive. Since June 16, Kinney is slashing a robust .363/.385/.645 with a 181 wRC+. His OPS over that period is 1.030. Seven of his nine home runs this season have come during this stretch and he seems to finally be unlocking his game power. His home run rate is up over 4% compared to last season and could continue to climb.
Power is the last part of Kinney’s game left to be unlocked. Kinney is already the master of hitting line drives. His smooth left-handed swing deposits balls all over the diamond leading to sustainably high BABIPs. His already impressive 26.5% line drive rate from last season has increased by over eight percent this season. While his .373 BABIP seems high, any hitter who can hit line drives like Kinney provides an extremely safe batting average floor for dynasty managers. While pulling the ball would likely lead to more power, his ability to use all fields will turn him into a doubles monster.
Kinney is not an elite fantasy prospect, but that causes him to be overlooked. His hit tool is a definite plus and the rest of his profile is already relatively safe. He provides a handful of stolen bases and his power continues to develop. All in all, Kinney has the potential to hit .290 with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases at the Major League level. He deserves more attention from the dynasty community and is a fringe-top 100 prospect in all of baseball.
Prospect List Part 2
Prospects That Just Missed
The 14th overall pick from this year’s draft is the top-ranked recent draftee off of the prospect list. The former Florida State Seminole found a new home in Chicago and is a prospect dynasty managers should certainly target. While at Florida State, Smith primarily played third base and left field although he profiles to have a future home on the dirt. Standing at 6’3″, Smith moves well for his size and he certainly has the power to become fantasy-relevant at the position. Smith crushed a total of 28 home runs across his two collegiate seasons. His slugging percentage jumped from .517 in his first season up to .654 in his second year. A large part of this jump can be accredited to Smith’s increased patience at the plate. His walk rate increased significantly in his second year and as pitchers started attacking more, Smith punished them.
Everything with Smith is smooth and simple. He has excellent barrel control and relies on his physical abilities to tap into impressive raw power. His hit tool improved significantly in his second season in college helping vault him up draft boards. After striking out over 28% of the time in his first season, Smith struck out just 14.9% in his second year. He just misses cracking the top 100 this month due to a relatively small sample size. His first collegiate season showed impressive power, but how his hit tool translates to professional baseball will say a lot about his future value. If the strides he made during his second collegiate season stick, he could become one of the game’s top third base prospects. Smith turns 22 before the start of the 2025 season and should move quickly through the Cubs’ system.
The advice here is to not give up on prospects you are high on too quickly. Allan Castro was one of my three breakout picks prior to the 2024 season. On the foundation of an excellent swing, Castro showed significant improvements to his hit tool as the 2023 season moved along. Increased power to close out the year led to his ranking inside of the top 85 in the 2024 debut of the Prospect List. However, much like in 2023, Castro got off to a slow start this season. By the time June 5 rolled around, Castro was batting just .201/.357/.305. The only bright spot seemed to be his walk rate. Just two months into the season, I seemingly chalked up this breakout pick as a bust and lowered Castro significantly in my rankings.
From June 6 forward, Castro has looked like a completely different player. He is showing increased aggression at the dish which is paying off in a big way. He is still walking over nine percent of the time but is finally making strides in his game power. From June 20 – July 12, Castro crushed nine home runs in just 81 plate appearances. While obviously unsustainable, that is a 67/600 home run pace speaking to Castro’s upside. He has maintained his strong hit tool as well batting .287 since June 6. This hot stretch is simply a reminder that progression does not always show up on the surface stats. Watching film of Castro, he still looks like the real deal and is moving back up my rankings. A promotion to Double-A is on the horizon and success there will vault him back into the top 100.
Deep Prospects to Note
Ranking the recent draftees is incredibly difficult. Everybody knows about Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzanza, but one of the biggest steals from the 2024 draft could be Ryan Sloan. The Mariners selected Sloan in the second round but nobody would have been surprised if he went earlier than that. Sloan stands at 6’5″ and throws from the right side. His fastball sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90s and there is belief that he can continue adding velocity at the professional level. His slider takes a sweeper shape and he utilizes a solid changeup to help neutralize lefties. Seattle has a great pitching development staff and getting Sloan in that organization could turn him into one of the game’s top pitching prospects. Sloan is certainly a player you should try and target in your FYPDs when those roll around.
The fact that nobody is talking about Kyle Karros is a bit puzzling. Karros was the Rockies’ fifth-round pick out of UCLA last season and has gotten off to a fast start in his professional career. Assigned to High-A this year, Karros currently owns a 151 wRC+ through his first 85 games. He has nine home runs, ten stolen bases, and is posting strong contact rates through the first half. Karros stands at 6’5″, but has a natural feel for hitting. He sprays the ball all over the field hitting tons of line drives. Although his current swing is designed to hit doubles (21 already this year), there is plenty of room for him to continue developing more game power. His batted ball distribution and swing tendencies remind me a lot of Alec Bohm, who we just saw put together a strong showing in the Home Run Derby.
Kyle Karros called game. #GoSpo pic.twitter.com/Qvn8oBMP2y
— Spokane Indians (@spokaneindians) May 20, 2024
Karros is 21 in High-A, so the real challenge will be once the Rockies start moving him up through their system. Regardless, a 6’5″ prospect putting up the numbers he is with the potential to play his future home games in Coors Field deserves more recognition from the dynasty community.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)