Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. The title this week is a reference to Tarik Skubal’s 13-strikeout Maddux against the Guardians on Sunday.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on May 19, are beginning to settle as we continue to get more data from teams’ offensive surges and slumps. Trending up in this update are the Mets and Blue Jays (“Solid” to “Top”), Orioles (“Average” to “Solid”), Reds and Rockies at home (“Weak” to “Solid”), Padres (“Average” to “Solid”), Royals on the road, Marlins, and Rangers (“Weak” to “Average”), Cardinals on the road (“Poor” to “Average”), and Guardians (“Poor” to “Weak”). I buy most of these, though I’m not convinced that the Orioles offense has meaningfully improved or that the Blue Jays belong in the top tier. I also don’t have much trepidation starting my pitchers in Colorado or Cincinnati, though I recognize it’s not an automatic start like it would be for those teams on the road. Lastly, the Rangers have been one of the worst offenses in the league both recently and all season, so I still only consider them a weak lineup at best.
Trending down are the Cubs and Tigers (“Top” to “Solid”), Pirates (“Solid” to “Weak”), Angels and Red Sox on the road (“Solid” to “Average”), Rays, Twins, Astros, and Mariners at home (“Average” to “Weak”), and the White Sox and Giants (“Weak” to “Poor”). It’s good to see this adjustment on the Pirates, as neither the name value nor the performance of their lineup suggests that we should steer clear. However, I do still consider the Cubs one of the worst matchups in the league and wouldn’t be surprised to see them return to the top tier soon.
AL East
- In a classic case of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, the Orioles DFA’d Kyle Gibson, which allowed Charlie Morton to re-enter the rotation. Morton has been better as of late (9.1 IP, 2 ER, 12 Ks), but he hasn’t actually made a start recently because of multiple postponements and scheduled doubleheaders. Trevor Rogers was excellent in his season debut on Saturday (6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks) and showed increased velocity. Rogers was the 27th man for a doubleheader, so he isn’t actually on the active roster, but it’s hard to imagine him staying in AAA for long after a start like that. Tomoyuki Sugano (3.07 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 K-BB%) has been this rotation’s only good pitcher, and he gets a decent two-step next week.
- The Sox will need six starters this week because they started two of their regular five in the doubleheader with the Orioles on Saturday. Cooper Criswell is likely to get the call for a spot start. Garrett Crochet (1.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 20.6% K-BB%) should get a nice two-start this week, but the other upcoming matchups are pretty tough. Richard Fitts, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck are all on the mend. Fitts has already covered three innings in AA and could replace Hunter Dobbins (4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 16.8% K-BB%), but it’s no guarantee.
- The Bronx Bombers continue their road trip out west this week, with six games against the Angels and Dodgers. Ryan Yarbrough has really stepped up as the new fifth starter so far (10 IP, 3 ER, 10 Ks in two starts), but it will still be hard to trust him in a two-start week that features the Dodgers.
- The Rays are one of only two teams with seven games this week. Their rotation has been pretty much the same all season, though the only real standout has been Drew Rasmussen (52 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 15.3% K-BB%). It will be interesting to see if he can actually reach 30 starts and 150 IP this year; both would be career highs. Until the Rays go to Fenway Park, I would feel comfortable starting all of their arms in 12-team leagues and deeper, but you don’t need to take a chance on a guy like Zack Littell (4.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11.7% K-BB%) if you already have a strong staff. He is a good QS source, but he doesn’t offer much upside because of the 15.9% strikeout rate.
- Toronto is the other team with seven games this week! Their search for a fifth starter continues, and they have turned to Eric Lauer (3.31 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 16.9% K-BB%), who’s had a couple of nice moments but has yet to complete five innings. Max Scherzer and Spencer Turnbull are potential future options, though neither is super close to returning. After the Rangers series, this beleaguered rotation is going to have a tough stretch.
AL Central
- Adrian Houser debuted on Tuesday with 6 IP of scoreless ball against the Mariners, but I need to see more before trusting him. He replaced Bryse Wilson (5.84 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 4% K-BB%) in the rotation, but Jonathan Cannon (3.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 10.5% K-BB%) is currently day-to-day with back tightness, so Wilson got a spot start in his place on Saturday. There could be some streamable moments for these arms, but not in the next 10 days. I am probably sitting Shane Smith (2.36 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13.9% K-BB%) against the Mets but feel good about the two-start next week.
- The Guardians get the reverse schedule of the Yankees this week, but they will play both LA teams at home. Ben Lively is heading for UCL reconstruction surgery, meaning that Slade Cecconi (11 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 26.7% K-BB%) will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future. This unit would really benefit from the expedient return of Shane Bieber, but he has yet to begin a rehab assignment. I think late June is a reasonable estimation, as he has been facing hitters.
- After this Padres series, the Marlins have a fantastic upcoming schedule. But, it’s hard to start anyone besides Ryan Weathers (10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 21.6% K-BB%) or Max Meyer (56.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 19.2% K-BB%) with any degree of confidence regardless of the matchup. At least they are the guys getting two starts the next two weeks. If you are a Sandy owner, I would sit him against the Padres before giving him one last shot to turn it around Rocky Road. Eury Pérez should be back next month, so brighter times are ahead.
NL West
