Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Readers should weigh pitchers’ next two predicted starts more heavily than the third and fourth, as those are more likely to change. This week’s title is a shoutout to the Giants, the only team in the league with a win streak over three games. Their rotation has been rock solid lately, led by Logan Webb (5-5, 87.1 IP, 2.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 101 Ks) and Robbie Ray (8-1, 77.1 IP, 2.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 87 Ks).
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on June 2, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. Trending up in this update are the Cubs (“Solid” to “Top”), Atlanta (“Average” to “Top”), Cardinals at home and the Angels (“Average” to “Solid”), Rays (“Weak” to “Solid”), Astros (“Weak” to “Average”), and the Cardinals on the road, Nationals and Brewers (“Poor” to “Weak”). It makes sense to me to see the Cubs back in the top tier, but I am a bit surprised that Atlanta has joined them. The Rays are one of the other biggest movers, which makes sense to me given how many runs they’ve put up lately. Junior Caminero has caught fire, but given the rest of the names in the lineup, I would still consider more of a middle of the pack offense than an above-average one.
Trending down are the home Red Sox (“Top” to “Solid”), Orioles, home Rockies, and Tigers (“Solid” to “Average”), Athletics and road Red Sox (“Average” to “Weak”), and the Guardians and home Mariners (“Weak” to “Poor”). The Athletics still seem like a bit of a dangerous home matchup with how the ball flies at Sutter Health Park, but I am generally on board with the rest of these downgrades.
AL East
- This rotation is relatively stable and has been performing better, but they will be challenged the next few weeks. Trevor Rogers would be the next arm to get the call if the O’s wanted to demote Cade Povich (5.11 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 15% K-BB%) to AAA or send Charlie Morton (6.59 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9.8% K-BB%) to the bullpen.
- Things feel pretty unstable in Beantown. Richard Fitts was briefly in the rotation after his activation from the IL, but he was shelled in his second start back (1 IP, 5 ER) and swiftly demoted. Hunter Dobbins has taken his spot and has some streamer intrigue, but not against the Yankees. Lucas Giolito (6.42 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10.7% K-BB%) and Walker Buehler (5.18 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 12.5% K-BB%) have also struggled mightily as of late, but at least they both avoid the Yankees this weekend.
- Carlos Rodón and Max Fried have been absolute rocks for this rotation, and the rest have had their moments of success and struggle. Will Warren (5.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 18.4% K-BB) looks like a nice wins streamer the next few weeks despite the unsightly ERA. I would be careful with Ryan Yarbrough (4.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 16.1% K-BB%), who has generally been pretty good but showed in his last outing (8 ER in 4 IP) that it can get ugly quick.
- This rotation is made up of three arms that have been rock solid (Rasmussen, Pepiot, and Littell) and two young arms that feel like they could be on the cusp of getting sent down (Baz and Bradley). A demotion seems slightly more likely for Baz, who has been a bit worse (4.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 13.3% K-BB%) and also only covered 79.1 IP last year. Two capable replacements loom in AAA in Ian Seymour and Joe Boyle. They were 8th and 9th, respectively, in our most recent edition of the Stash List.
- Another edition of this article comes and goes, and Toronto still doesn’t have a fifth starter. Heck, they hardly even have a fourth starter, as Bowden Francis has been a landmine. The fifth day typically looks like some combo of Eric Lauer and Paxton Schultz, but neither is fantasy relevant. Chris Bassitt (3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 18.3% K-BB%) has a couple of streamable starts coming up if he was dropped in your leagues after a poor May (18 ER in 32 IP over 6 starts).
AL Central
- Shane Smith (2.45 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 13.4% K-BB%) continues to roll and gets a two-start week that we would have been scared of in the preseason, but doesn’t seem so bad now. Unfortunately, he still isn’t a great source of wins (2) or quality starts (3). Mike Vasil has replaced the injured Jonathan Cannon in the rotation, but he isn’t fully stretched out yet. Aside from the road series in San Francisco, things will get pretty tough for the White Sox after this week.
- Cleveland was just dealt a huge blow, as Shane Bieber has been shut down from throwing for a week. He experienced some soreness in his elbow after his first rehab start, and the Guardians are exercising caution. These five will be the unit they roll with for now, and there are some good matchups in the next two weeks. I am recommending the Luis L. Ortiz (4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 13.6% K-BB%) two-step in 12-team and deeper formats. He comes with some ratio risk but has good strikeout upside. Slade Cecconi (4.87 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 14.6% K-BB%) could be a decent wins play in deeper leagues for these next two. I still refuse to recommend Logan Allen (4.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.2% K-BB%), as it feels likely he is only going to continue to regress due to his inability to miss bats.
- Happy Eury Pérez day! The talented young righty makes his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery with a nice two-start week, and I think you have to run him out there. Even though he hasn’t dominated his rehab assignment, he did build up to 82 pitches. Ryan Weathers (24.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 14.7% K-BB%) is day-to-day with a head injury after getting beaned on a thrown down by Nick Fortes, his own catcher. Max Meyer was placed on the IL with hip impingement, so Pérez will be taking his spot. Meyer can be comfortably dropped in 15-teamers and shallower if you lack the IL space.
NL West
