Lucas Erceg, Carlos Estévez, Mason Miller, Shelby Miller, Emilio Pagán and Ryan Thompson all finished with three SV+HLDs this week. Estevez now has 9 saves and sparkling ratios (2.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), so why is he at 85 on the list? Well his SwStr rate of 5.8% ranks 194th of 198 qualified relievers (CSW of 22.3% ranks 193rd) while his xFIP (5.42) ranks 184 and K-BB% (6.3%) ranks 167th. His Stuff+ is just 95 at the moment, while PLV is even worse at 4.73 (well below average). Even pitching half of his games in a pitcher friendly ballpark won’t be able to save him from impending disaster. This reminds me a little bit of Héctor Neris from last season, with Neris also holding a 22.3% CSW rate and 5.84 xFIP despite an ERA of 3.00 over his first 15 innings pitched. Now would be a great time to sell high if you can.
