Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00 pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback.tv 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
It’s that time of the year where we shift from the traditional Top 100 ranking of The List to a stupid long article outlining every single expected Starting Pitcher start and ranking them all together in one smattering that kinda makes sense and should help your team.
Yeah, it’s a lot to take in, but it’s what I think is the most helpful way of talking about the final four weeks of the season and it’s what you see before you.
First thing’s first, I want to thank Josh Mockensturm for creating the individual team tables and color-coding their matchup tiers. I’ve compiled them all to make the mega tables at the end of the article, and that’s only possible because of Josh’s work.
These schedules are going to change. Seriously, even the daily streaming pitchers article I write often changes and that’s published just hours before game time. Use this article as a guide to understand the flow of rotations and move the respective pitchers around as needed when changes happen.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Again, these tables are going to change. I’m trying to give a general idea of it, but injured pitchers returning, rainouts, bumped starters, callups, etc. mean the orders are all messed up. It happens, nothing I can do about it.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Pretty straightforward stuff. Let’s take a look at how I’m loosely ranking these matchups for the next month (which, also, will change. These are humans, after all):
This year, I’ve added labels to each pitcher in their team tables, designated by their color. Here is the legend:
Now let’s jump to the expected schedules for each team starting August 25th.
Final note: I apologize I wasn’t able to get this out before games started on Monday August 25th. It’s a behemoth of an article with a lot of moving parts and I wanted to do it right instead of rushing it out. Check out the morning roundup and daily streaming articles for updates to these assessments. Good luck!
Eduardo Rodriguez – He’s a Toby to consider for the easy matchups.
Brandon Pfaadt – I’d be careful. I don’t trust the changeup/sinker approach to LHB.
Ryne Nelson – He’s been solid and the developing slider could take him another step forward in September.
Anthony DeSclafani – If he does return, I’m not interested.
Nabil Crismatt – We may get one more of Nabil and there’s a dark-horse chance he pulls it off against the Brewers and possibly gets more outings later in September.
Zac Gallen – Gallen had a great showcase of command in his last start and I wouldn’t trust that unless it appears against the Dodgers.
J.T. Ginn – Maybe the command is there to take advantage of the good schedule? Give him a start or two first.
Luis Severino – Here’s to hoping Severino is able to take advantage of the Reds Carpet.
Jack Perkins – Let’s not bank on Perkins being back on the fourteenth, let alone stretched out to be worthwhile. Maybe against the Pirates…?
Osvaldo Bido – His command is too unruly for me to chase.
Luis Morales – He throws hard and I wish he located the four-seamer a little better upstairs. He’s a sneaky AL-Only streamer in the short term with a chance to last if reinforcements don’t arrive.
Jeffrey Springs – It’s hard to tell when Springs will be Sunshine and Rainbows.
Jacob Lopez – He’s hitting the IL with forearm tightness after the atrocity we saw on Sunday. When he does come back, you should be careful.
Joey Estes – Estes is a command arm you don’t want to touch.
Atlanta
Spencer Strider – We’re not in a position to trust Strider, event against Miami. It’s rough.
Hurston Waldrep – The move away from the four-seamer has worked out, but don’t hold through the Cubs.
Joey Wentz – Wentz is like Waldrep – start for Miami, drop for the Cubs, return after.
Cal Quantrill – Absolutely not.
Bryce Elder – I don’t care if he just did well. You can’t.
Chris Sale – Feel free to Still ILL against the Phillies, but I’m all for it after that.
Tomoyuki Sugano – He has two considerable starts left, unless he finds himself hosting TBR later.
Kyle Bradish – I’m down to start him for his Still ILL given 87 pitches in his final rehab start.
Tyler Wells – I have zero expectations for Wells when he returns.
Roansy Contreras – Oh, this again?
Cade Povich – Povich is a surprisingly good streamer down the stretch. Just skip out for the Padres and you may get a trio of productive Toby performances after.
Dean Kremer – He’s Dean Werewolf. Good luck.
Trevor Rogers – You’re going to start him until it breaks. How unfair it is to see the gauntlet that lies in waiting.
Richard Fitts – Entering tonight, I had low expectations for Fitts after boasting two ticks less velocity in the minors.
Lucas Giolito – Start him outside of the Yankees and Jays and you’ll be fine. Maybe even the Jays.
Brayan Bello – Bello has been reliable for two months now, if not more.
Garrett Crochet – Aces gonna ace.
Dustin May – This isn’t working out. I’ll let you know if something changes.
Matthew Boyd – He’s been too good to bench now.
Colin Rea – Look at that schedule for one of the more reliable Toby arms around.
Shota Imanaga – IM AN AGA.
Cade Horton – Is his blister healed? Actually? I don’t like the first three starts, but if he’s still around (innings may be getting too high, too), the final three matchups look dandy.
Jameson Taillon – He’s a Toby and fresh to go six constantly in the final month.
Shane Smith – He’s someone to circle in mid-September.
Martín Pérez – Don’t overlook Pérez in your deep leagues if he’s going 75+ pitches through the end of August.
Aaron Civale – I hate trusting Civale and this is a truly desperate play for six frames.
Davis Martin – Martin is a Toby with one or two starts to circle.
Yoendrys Gómez – Gómez intrigues me and could be a final-weekend savior against the Nationals. 95 mph heaters with great shape (122 Fan4+ yesterday!) and two whiffable breakers.
Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene – Aces gonna ace.
Nick Martinez – Is this it for Martinez? If he gets more starts, you can chase in a dire moment.
Nick Lodolo – Oh wow. This is, uh, rough. Poor Lodolo, he could honestly pull through and still produce, but I get if you’re rather not test it as he returns from the IL.
Zack Littell – Y’all know how I feel about Littell. Sure, try it against the Cardinals, but nothing else.
Andrew Abbott – I don’t believe his last start is the end of the line for Abbott’s breakout campaign.
Brady Singer – Those three final matchups may return a pair of Wins/QS you need.
Tanner Bibee – I’m done trying to predict what Bibee is going to do.
John Means – He’s likely not returning so soon (maybe the eleventh instead), but you should be away of Means for the final weeks of September. They’ll want to give him frames before the season ends.
Parker Messick – It may be more than just TBR and as a southpaw with a changeup, he could overperform his stuff. I wish I had more confidence in the rookie.
Slade Cecconi – I’m not a part of the Slade Brigade, but those aren’t the worst matchups.
Logan Allen – Maybe against the CrySox and Tigers…?
Gavin Williams – He’s a HIPSTER. You do you. Me? I’m frustrated and would rather stream at this point.
Tanner Gordon – Don’t
Chase Dollander – You
Antonio Senzatela – Dare
Kyle Freeland – Start
Germán Márquez – Them.
Tarik Skubal – Aces gonna ace.
Charlie Morton – The strikeouts are flowing and don’t overlook the end of the season matchups.
Casey Mize – Mize isn’t in a good spot at the moment, but the second half of September looks solid, especially against Miami.
Chris Paddack – I’d only consider the Guardians for the most part. In retrospect, I may have wanted to put him as a “Single Start Streamer”.
Jack Flaherty – He’s a HIPSTER who I still believe is better than the valley of late, but is too risky to be a blind hold.
Hunter Brown – Aces gonna ace.
Luis García Jr. – Is he actually coming back that soon? Maybe he’s worth it against the Rangers, but dang, that’s not pretty.
Framber Valdez – He’s been rough but the curve should return and you’re rolling with him.
Jason Alexander – Circle the start against Rockie Road.
Lance McCullers Jr. – He’s a HIPSTER for those in desperate need of strikeouts.
Cristian Javier – I believe in him plenty and it’s a gamble if he’ll find his groove in time.
Spencer Arrighetti – Same with The Pasta Pirate. I believe in Arrighetti a touch more than Javier at this point given the wider arsenal, but it’s close.
Noah Cameron – He’s been a steady arm and why stop now?
Michael Lorenzen – Maybe there’s a QS in there.
Ryan Bergert – I dig him and hope he’s doing enough after the Guardians game that he want to keep rolling with him. I doubt it, though.
Michael Wacha – He’s a Toby and worthwhile for the good matchups.
Seth Lugo – It’s a terrible moment and I totally get moving on. I’m wagering he finds it in his next start or two. The non-curveballs should be better.
José Soriano – He’s a HIPSTER.
Yusei Kikuchi – So is he.
Tyler Anderson – The changeup gives him a chance on a given day.
Caden Dana – Who knows what we’ll get? Maybe you stream him @TEA.
Kyle Hendricks – You can’t be serious.
Emmet Sheehan – Here’s to starting him the rest of the way and giving us the confidence for PHI.
Clayton Kershaw – Love the first three, even if I’m skeptical of the skills.
Shohei Ohtani – He’s stretched out now…right?
Blake Snell – Hot. Snell. Summer.
Tyler Glasnow – Aces gonna ace. Fix those fastballs please.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Aces gonna ace.
Edward Cabrera – It’s a bumpy schedule, but ECab has done enough to weather it.
Sandy Alcantara – If he cruises against Atlanta, you may be holding past it.
Ryan Weathers – I sure hope he’s back to 97 mph when he returns. Still ILL then consideration against DET. Hopefully he gets a start against @TEX, too.
Ryan Gusto – His skills aren’t terrible, but I’d wait until he proves it first.
Janson Junk – Is he hurt or not? Maybe he proves he’s okay and can take advantage of the schedule.
Eury Pérez – He’s not an ace without the best weapons for LHB, but you’re not benching him.
Brandon Woodruff – He’s looked like an ace, but stumbled last start. You’re not dropping him.
Jacob Misiorowski – Even with limited innings, he’s still been productive. Expect the walks to come down and strikeouts to soar.
Quinn Priester – I’m not the biggest Priester believer, but save for a starting against the Phillies, Priester has a solid chance of producing.
Jose Quintana – He’s in rhythm and has just one terrible lineup to face.
Freddy Peralta – There’s no reason to bench Peralta.
Chad Patrick – He’s getting replaced by Tobias Myers and I wouldn’t start either of them against Toronto.
Joe Ryan – Aces gonna ace.
Simeon Woods Richardson – I have little faith in SWR and I wonder if he’s even going to return to the rotation.
Pablo López – After the Still ILL, you’re letting him fly.
Bailey Ober – I worry about the four-seamer velocity. It’s too risky.
Zebby Matthews – His in-zone command isn’t where it needs to be yet. Hopefully he takes a step forward to make us confident @TEX.
Mick Abel – Abel is far better than what he showed in his debut for Minnesota. I sure hope he sticks the rest of the way as there could be sneaky value here.
Taj Bradley – Bradley is the same chaotic arm of old. No thanks.
Kodai Senga – Senga isn’t as pristine as you want him to be, but he’s better as of late. Play it safe against the Phils, then ride the rest of the way.
Sean Manaea – I’m worried about the third-time through the lineup penalty, but the fastball and sweeper are still effective.
Nolan McLean – McLean is legit, but the Shag Rug is present.
Clay Holmes – I’m not convinced The Adobe has fixed himself to last the full rest of the way, but those first two starts are solid.
Tylor Megill – Is he going to be ready to take advantage of the Marlins?
David Peterson – He’s getting the strikeouts and that schedule is glorious.
Cam Schlittler – Cam figured it out last start and I’m excited for what’s next.
Luis Gil – The command is still in question.
Max Fried – He took a step forward last start and could return to AGA-land.
Will Warren – Warren has battled his command a lot this season and I’m not sure he’ll click into place before the end.
Carlos Rodón – Rodón isn’t at his peak, but he’s in a good enough place to trust through September.
Cristopher Sánchez – Aces gonna ace.
Jesús Luzardo – He’s a Cherry Bomb. Good luck.
Taijuan Walker – Vargas Rule him if you must, I can’t do it.
Aaron Nola – Nola was far better in his second start at 92-93 mph. Trust this.
Ranger Suárez – Suárez has gone 10+ strikeouts in back-to-back starts. Gotta roll with that.
Johan Oviedo – I’m intrigued by Oviedo’s 99th percentile extension and legit slider. If only we could believe in his command.
Mitch Keller – Sure, he’s a desperate shot for a QS, but it’s just so meh.
Braxton Ashcraft & Bubba Chandler – Expect Bubba to take over eventually, making way for some enticing games against the Nationals, hosting the Athletics, and @CIN. As for Ashcraft, I worry he won’t go long enough to be worthwhile.
Mike Burrows – He could be some sneaky value with a few matchups, but I wouldn’t chase it.
Paul Skenes – Aces gonna ace.
JP Sears – I didn’t see a different version of Sears in his return from the Minors and we may not see more of him.
Dylan Cease – The schedule is great and the skills are better than the results. You know this.
Yu Darvish – Darvish has the ability to cruise the rest of the way and has a luscious schedule for him to take advantage of.
Nestor Cortes – Cortes just dominated the Dodgers and look at those matchups…
Michael King – King was shaky when he first returned and if he’s properly healthy, you’re not taking your foot off the gas pedal.
Nick Pivetta – Aces gonna ace.
Justin Verlander – The slider is off and avoid most unless it’s back.
Carson Whisenhunt – Maybe the changeup is enough against the Cards…?
Logan Webb – He’s not at his peak and gets a horrible schedule. You can’t drop him though, right?
Robbie Ray – He’s gone from 94 mph to 92 mph to 91 mph in his last three starts, including Sunday’s four walks and zero strikeouts. I’m scared he’s injured. That said, if he’s starting, FINE, we’re going with it.
Tristan Beck – Oh hey, you’re coming back? There’s a shot he shows enough to be worthwhile after a start or two, but I’m not counting on it.
Bryce Miller – He’s back! The Still ILL looked great and the Padres at home is a test of our confidence the rest of the way.
Luis Castillo – Start him at home, but not on the road.
Bryan Woo – Aces gonna ace.
George Kirby – Not an ace, but you can’t deny this…save for the Dodgers. Possibly.
Logan Gilbert – Aces gonna ace.
Michael McGreevy – Hot dang, look at that schedule! Don’t expect strikeouts, but the Wins and QS could be there with decent ratios based on the elite defense behind him.
Andre Pallante – This is not the sneaky arm you’re looking for.
Sonny Gray – It’ll be Sonny a whole lot more than Gray.
Miles Mikolas – You know better than this.
Matthew Liberatore – Liberatore has been fatigued in the second half. I’d avoid this.
Ian Seymour – Another southpaw with a changeup, but I really don’t love this skill set. If you want to give it a shot early, fine, but don’t expect much.
Shane Baz – Give it a shot on the road…? He’s not this bad, I promise.
Drew Rasmussen – He’s going 5-6 innings constantly now. His skills are elite.
Adrian Houser – Houser is still capable of six innings for QS leagues. Play the matchups.
Ryan Pepiot – Go with it early, but maybe hold off against TOR and BOS at home.
Jacob deGrom – Aces gonna ace.
Patrick Corbin – The magic has worn off. But maybe against the Marlins…
Nathan Eovaldi – Aces gonna ace.
Jack Leiter – He just killed it, but I hate the date in Sacré Verde and would test this only against Miami, unless he shows more.
Merrill Kelly – Kelly has been shockingly consistent.
Max Scherzer – He hasn’t hurt in a long time.
Chris Bassitt – The ten strikeout game isn’t sustainable.
Eric Lauer – He’s getting runway and the four-seamer still works against RHB, for whatever reason.
Shane Bieber – Bieber looked absurd. I’m trusting this.
José Berríos – He’s The Great Undulator. You’re call.
Kevin Gausman – Gausman is a HIPSTER.
Brad Lord – It’s a decent sinker but not enough to chase.
MacKenzie Gore – He’s a coin flip and that’s a rough schedule. I’m a believer in him helping more than hurting, but I get it if you’d rather move on.
Cade Cavalli – Circle the Marlins and Pirates.
Mitchell Parker – Oh how I wish he can reach his potential.
Jake Irvin – He hasn’t been good for ages.
Andry Lara – WHO?!.GIF
The List Based On ROS Schedules
Phew. With all the team schedules outlined above, I went forward and made a GIANT table featuring every starter listed above, ranking them in seven different tiers to get a sense of who to target and avoid down the stretch.
Before we get to that, I need to address a few things:
- Due to the annoying nature of predicting schedule vs. things shifting around constantly, I decided to tier them up and sort them by alphabetical order.
- It’s just too nuanced to rank these properly at this point. What is the value of 4 starts remaining vs. 5? It depends on so much.
- Seriously, this is near impossible at this point. For daily questions, I’ll have my daily streaming articles.
- Let me outline the definitions of each tier:
- Auto: You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of the opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
- Solid: You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation. These are the arms that are most likely already rostered in leagues and not available off the wire. There are also a few arms who are trending down and may fall into the “Gamble” tier next week.
- Tobys and Bombs: These are possible waiver adds with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, with a mix of your standard Toby types who you trust a little more than a streamer, your high upside/high risk Cherry Bomb types, or guys who we may like to take a spec add on and see if they can become more trusted in future weeks.
- Early Streamer: These are streaming options for the next few starts ahead, who we’re dropping after. It’s not always perfect (like one bad matchup then becoming a streamer), but they should help you plan your weeks ahead.
- Late Streamer: These are streaming options in future weeks to circle and be aware of if you’re looking to get ahead of other managers in your league.
- Desperate Streamer: They have a skill that gives them a chance to come through – Long leash, strikeout upside, etc. – but shouldn’t be circled as an option in your leagues.
- Single game Streamer: These are the guys who have maybe one start that look decent on paper, but we don’t expect to start much or has a rare game to circle.
- Do Not Start: It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it. Don’t do this.
- These matchups are likely to change plenty between now and the end of the season and take the time to look into who maybe shift around and who may not (e.g. The Yankees rotation)
- Again, please don’t hate me, this took forever.
- I went with a screenshot instead of a table as it’s far easier to create the colored cells for opponents + I think it works better for scrolling. Sorry you can’t Ctrl+F inside it. It’s a concession I think is worth it.
- If you’d like a searchable version, I have shared a copy of this Google Sheet inside our PL+ Discord.
Players are not ranked inside tiers. They are sorted in alphabetical order.
Auto-Start Tier
You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of the opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
Solid Start Tier
You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation. These are the arms that are most likely already rostered in leagues and not available off the wire. There are also a few arms who are trending down and may fall into the “Gamble” tier next week.
Tobys and Bombs Start Tier
These are possible waiver adds with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, with a mix of your standard Toby types who you trust a little more than a streamer, your high upside/high risk Cherry Bomb types, or guys who we may like to take a spec add on and see if they can become more trusted in future weeks.
Early Streamer Tier
These are streaming options for the next few starts ahead, who we’re dropping after. It’s not always perfect (like one bad matchup then becoming a streamer), but they should help you plan your weeks ahead.
Late Streamer Tier
These are streaming options in future weeks to circle and be aware of if you’re looking to get ahead of other managers in your league.
Desperate Streamer Tier
They have a skill that gives them a chance to come through – Long leash, strikeout upside, etc. – but shouldn’t be circled as an option in your leagues.
Single Start Streamer Tier
For the starters who have a single (or two) you may be targeting through the end of the season.
Do Not Start Tier
It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it. Don’t do this.
Good luck everyone!
