Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
- A couple of quick notes before we begin, for metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
- Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
- All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Steven Kwan.
Generally speaking, for a batter like Kwan who routinely makes little hard contact but makes a ton of contact in general with low strikeout rates, his production can often depend on whether the BABIP is playing nice and isn’t on the unlucky side of things.
Right now is one of those times where the BABIP is certainly playing nice. Sitting at .390 as of the beginning of play on Monday, it won’t remain quite this high forever, but as long as it’s reasonably high (something that’s very feasible given the high contact rates), Kwan should remain one of the better bets for batting average production in the league. He hit .298 in 2022 with a .323 BABIP. The contact rates obviously varied a bit, but Kwan’s average dropped to .268 last year with a slightly more unlucky .294 BABIP.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Amed Rosario.
Rosario isn’t walking all that much. In fact, he had just one walk in 75 plate appearances through Sunday. However, he isn’t striking out all that much either, with just a 13.3% strikeout rate.
Throw in wOBA (.378) and xwOBA (.326) numbers that would be the highest of his career if the season ended today, and it’s probably not a surprise that Rosario is off to such a strong start.
Something to watch with the versatile Rays hitter, who is eligible at second base, shortstop, and in the outfield, is that he’s already at six barrels after collecting 14 in 2023 and a career-high 24 in 2022.
If Rosario can top 30 barrels, something that’s not out of the question given his start, he could be worth a look as a starting option in most fantasy formats with more than 12 teams given his versatility.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Jesse Winker.
Winker, as you’ll see in the next table, is rostered in only 23% of fantasy leagues.
Let’s get this out of the way – he hits in the Nationals lineup. A lineup that isn’t entirely productive at the moment.
Quality lineup around him or not, the veteran needs to be rostered at a much higher rate across the board. It’s a bit hard to ignore a player with a .372 xwOBA and a 9.1% barrel rate, along with chase rate (22.3%) and walk rate (12.6%) metrics approaching the 80th percentile.
If you happen to be one of the fortunate fantasy members in one of the 77% of leagues where Winker is not rostered, make one of your FAAB decisions right this minute. He’s a must-add.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: LaMonte Wade Jr.
A must-add in deeper leagues, Wade Jr. Needs to be rostered on most leagues with more than 12 teams, as well as the majority of 12-team leagues for that matter.
Yes, the Giants aren’t going to hit (or start) him against left-handed pitching all that often, but the production – like with Winker – is simply too great to be ignored.
As a quick aside, here’s a brief trivia question. What do all of the following batters have in common?
Said batters include: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Marcus Semien, William Contreras, Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rafael Devers, and Jose Altuve.
The answer? All have a lower xwOBA than Wade Jr. so far.
Admittedly, so does most of the league. The Giants first baseman and outfielder ranks in the top 20 among qualified batters in xwOBA. With a career 12.0% walk rate and an xwOBA of .340 or higher in two of the last three years, he’s all but a lock to provide a significant boost in on-base percentage, as well as contribute in other categories as well.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: CJ Abrams.
CJ Abrams is proving to be a fantasy difference-maker in more ways than one this season.
After a quality fantasy season in 2023 in which he stole 47 bases to go along with 18 home runs, he was a popular selection relatively early in drafts this spring. However, he also contributed just a .245 average, a .300 on-base percentage, and a 6.9% barrel rate in 2023.
Fast forward to this season and he’s hitting .297 with a .358 on-base percentage, six home runs, and four stolen bases in 82 plate appearances through Sunday. With 90th percentile rankings in xwOBA and xBA, not to mention a 20.7% strikeout rate, the contact looks reasonably sustainable. However, the big key here is the power production.
Abrams is sporting seven barrels and a 12.1% barrel rate, reaching a seventh of his barrel total from last season in nearly half the batted balls.
Even if the batting average production looked fluky, Abrams would have top-15 overall upside if he continues to provide this much power and speed production. If the batting average remains, that fantasy ceiling jumps even higher.
However, one note to watch is the infielder’s 43.2% chase rate. It’s in the second percentile league-wide. It hasn’t been a detractor statistically so far, but it’s something to keep in mind as we move forward in the season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Ryan O’Hearn.
For as much as Jesse Winker and Bryan De La Cruz (more on him in a bit) have rostered rates that are much too low, Ryan O’Hearn might take the cake as the most underutilized hitter in fantasy baseball.
Simply put, he’s been one of baseball’s best hitters this season. And while there is a caveat here that Baltimore rarely starts him against left-handed pitching, this is essentially a non-issue considering what O’Hearn does at the plate.
Fun fact, here’s a list of metrics O’Hearn ranks in the 90th percentile or better in: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, chase rate, and strikeout rate.
And, oh yeah, the xwOBA is in the 100th percentile. So is the xSLG. Plus, the slugger was walking (8.2% walk rate) nearly as much as he was striking out (9.5% strikeout rate) as of the start of play Monday. And all that with a .239 BABIP.
Hitting in an elite Baltimore lineup, once the positive regression kicks in, O’Hearn should comfortably be a top-75 overall hitter, or better, in most formats.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Riley Greene.
If the season to date is anything to go by, Riley Greene should stay fairly close to the top of this leaderboard moving forward. Tied with Mookie Betts for the league lead in walks as of Monday with 20, Greene has also moved into the leadoff spot in A.J. Hinch’s lineup, batting first in all of his starts since April 12. And it’s not just the walks either. Greene is sporting a .400 xwOBA and is in the 99th percentile in barrel rate. He’s probably going to be on more leaderboards in this column as the summer progresses. In other words, don’t expect the batting average to hover below .250 for long.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Starling Marte.
Is the Starling Marte resurgence upon us? It looks that way. After struggling mightily at the plate in 2023, the veteran outfielder is producing at a reasonably similar rate to his first season in Queens, this time with more frequency in terms of barrels.
Marte’s career high in barrel rate (8.1%) came in 2021, and he’s never hit more than 23 home runs in a season. Still, the sudden uptick in barrels is very much worth watching and could be the tide that rises (most) all boats where the veteran’s counting stats are concerned. If they continue, Marte, like Abrams, could see his fantasy ceiling rise exponentially. Perhaps not quite as high as Abrams, mind you, but very much in the top-100 overall discussion.
Even in the event that the barrels don’t continue and this is just a torrid start, the outfielder is very much worth picking up as a priority waiver wire addition this week, regardless of league size.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Alec Bohm.
By and large, Alec Bohm has been reasonably productive over the last few seasons. In his first two full seasons in the Majors, at least in terms of plate appearances, the infielder hit .280 and .270 respectively, while collecting 33 total home runs. He’s topped at least 70 RBI and 70 runs scored in each of the last two campaigns as well.
This season, he’s off to a torrid start at the plate, hitting .284 with a .391 on-base percentage and three home runs through 87 plate appearances as of the beginning of play on Monday.
With a .203 ISO, a .327 BABIP, and just an 18.4% strikeout rate, the batting average, RBI, and run-scored production (the latter due to a quality Phillies lineup around him) look to be safe for now.
But the home run production might not be all that it seems, at least so far. Bohm has never topped a 7.0% barrel rate in a season in which he’s logged more than 400 plate appearances. Furthermore, he’s sporting just a 5.2% barrel rate this year, and two of his three home runs came in one game against the Phillies, both off of Garrett Crochet in a poor start from the right-hander.
This is all not to say that Bohm should be dropped or that there’s any reason to doubt his fantasy upside, just don’t expect too much in the way of home runs moving forward.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Bryan De La Cruz.
De La Cruz needed to be added off waivers yesterday. Okay, maybe last week. Okay, maybe earlier than that.
You get the picture here. He’s very much worth having on a fantasy roster. Fun fact, through last Friday he was essentially producing like Adolis García at the plate, albeit with a slightly higher xSLG, a slightly lower hard-hit rate, and a handful of fewer walks. Otherwise, markedly similar production.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Brice Turang.
A cut down on strikeouts and a significant spike in BABIP has Turnag getting on base at a much higher clip than he did last year. After hitting .218 with an 8.5% walk rate, a .268 BABIP, and a 27% hard-hit rate in 2023, he’s up to a .333 average in 79 plate appearances through Sunday. With an 8.8% walk rate and a similarly low 26.3% hard-hit rate, a sky-high .364 BABIP is certainly playing a role here. And while that high of a BABIP is unlikely to sustain itself all season, the infielder is taking full advantage of being on base more often.
Turang is nearly up to half the number of stolen bases he logged as a rookie in only a seventh of the games. Beware the regression looming in the future, but if he’s occupying a starting spot in your lineup in Roto leagues, continue to start him with confidence for the time being.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Javier Báez.
Baez has struggled at the plate so far this season, hitting just .185 with a .214 on-base percentage and a 38 wRC+ in his first 70 plate appearances. He’s collected just 12 hits and two walks.
None of that is particularly great.
But, when he is reaching base, the veteran is making the most of things. Of the 14 times he’s reached base this season, he’s stolen a base in five of those instances and has yet to be caught.
He might not hit for a high average over the course of the season, but if he can maintain the positive momentum he had at the plate last week, there’s the potential for 10 to 15 home runs and 20 to 30 stolen bases here.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Luis Castillo.
Any lingering long-term concern with Luis Castillo’s uneven start can probably be thrown out the window.
The veteran allowed 12 earned runs in his first 15.2 innings, but thanks in part to some strong strikeout metrics, logged a 3.28 FIP during that span.
In reality, it was a window to potentially acquire a pitcher who could turn things around quickly as a staff ace for fantasy managers.
Unfortunately, that window seems to have slammed shut. He’s turned things around, and the positive regression has started to kick in.
The right-hander has surrendered just two earned runs in his last 13 innings, striking out 18 batters in the process. For good measure, he allowed just one walk during that stretch.
The surface-level production is back. Start Luis Castillo as a fantasy ace with confidence moving forward.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Clarke Schmidt.
Despite a 4.64 ERA and a 4.36 FIP in 159 innings last season, Clarke Schmidt was markedly consistent, allowing three or fewer runs while throwing five or more innings in 19 of his 32 starts. Really, his season-long run-prevention metrics were marred by a pair of unideal outings in which he gave up eight earned runs in 2.1 innings (August 18 at Atlanta) and seven earned runs in 4.2 innings in a May 14 home start versus Tampa Bay.
He’s brought similar, if not more effective, as it were, consistency in the season’s first few weeks.
An 18% rostered rate seems entirely too low here. At worst, Schmidt is a quality streaming option in 10 or 12-team leagues, with the potential to stick on rosters in those same leagues if he keeps pitching like this.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Kutter Crawford.
A 0.96 ERA isn’t anywhere near sustainable, nor is a .218 wOBA against, but the 28-year-old has been excellent so far this season.
That’s in large part due to his ability to limit hard contact with a diverse cutter and four-seamer fronted arsenal that also features a sweeper, a splitter, and a knuckle curve as regular offerings.
Opposing hitters have managed just a 29.4% hard-hit rate, as well as a .261 xwOBA against Crawford, who is also sporting a 2.28 FIP. That ability to limit quality contact certainly helps when half his starts come in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. In fact, this season, Crawford has been excellent at home, throwing a combined 10.2 scoreless innings across a pair of mid-April starts.
Overall, his ERA and wOBA might not be too sustainable, but his xwOBA and FIP metrics look like the real deal. Anyone who took a chance on the hurler later in drafts – who as an added bonus, is also relief pitcher eligible in fantasy leagues – might just have a borderline top-30 fantasy starter moving forward.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Tyler Anderson.
Anderson is once again limiting hard contact at a decidedly above-average rate, something he’s done with aplomb in each of the last three seasons. Really, for the entirety of his career.
However, the same issues that plagued him in his first season with the Angels (elevated walk and barrel rates) are back this season. Through his first four starts, Anderson’s walk rate is up to 9.2% and he’s given up eight barrels on 75 batted ball events, good for a 10.7% hard-hit rate. There’s also the matter of the chasm between his actual ERA (1.42) and FIP (4.65) not to mention a more fortunate .167 BABIP.
In short, now might be the time to trade Anderson away if he’s on your roster.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Craig Kimbrel.
Despite a four-seamer that is averaging a career-low average of 93.8 mph, Kimbrel’s metrics so far look as good as they have in recent years, with 14 strikeouts compared to no walks and just three hits allowed in his first nine innings.
His three early-season pitcher wins have his fantasy value in a better place than it’s been in years as well. In fact, in his first nine outings, an April 6 inning against Pittsburgh at the Pirates’ home park was the only time Kimbrel hasn’t registered either a win or a save this season.
Even if he doesn’t come close to topping his career high of eight pitcher wins this year, Kimbrel’s floor looks locked in as that of a top 10 fantasy closer on a surging Orioles club.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Reed Garrett.
It’s still early, but Reed Garrett looks to have quickly (and quietly) established himself as one of the best stash candidates for saves. Or rather, as one of the best backup closers in the league. Edwin Diaz is obviously still entrenched in the ninth-inning in Queens, but Garrett has been excellent so far.
The 31-year-old has struck out more than half (21) of the first 41 batters he’s faced, scattering just five hits, three walks, and a pair of unearned runs in the process.
Crucially, he’s also one of three Mets relievers not named Diaz to earn a save this year. And while it remains to be seen if Garrett will still be the favorite for ancillary saves, it’s hard to argue with his bat-missing ability so far.
The significant uptick in strikeouts, thanks in part to increased usage for his slider, sweeper, and splitter, has also put Garrett into a position where fantasy managers can deploy him to keep weekly ratio stats down while chipping in with strikeouts. If he can continue like this with somewhere in the neighborhood of eight to 10 saves, he’ll easily be a top-25 fantasy reliever by season’s end.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Cole Ragans.
Cole Ragans was uncharacteristically poor on Sunday for the Royals, allowing nine hits and seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings against a strong Baltimore Orioles lineup. There weren’t many silver linings on the day, though the hurler did register four strikeouts to go with 10 whiffs on the 62 pitches he threw.
But ultimately, though, this seems more like an outlier than anything else. This is just the third time in 17 starts since donning a Kansas City Royals uniform that Ragan has surrendered more than three earned runs.
And in those other 14 starts, he struck out at least seven batters on 11 different occasions. He’ll be fine.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Cal Quantrill.
Pitching at Coors Field on a regular basis isn’t the best thing for pitchers where fantasy production is concerned. And while Quantrill has found some early success with the Rockies, there are a few things to keep in mind early on.
One is that Quantrill, generally a pitcher with lower strikeout totals who relies on a sinker to get plenty of outs, is sporting just a 12.7% strikeout rate this year. Pair that with Coors Field, a 44% ground ball rate and a 10.2% walk rate, and you have a recipe for some elevated run-prevention metrics.
The second thing of note here is that Quantril has actually struggled on the road so far. Again, this is the land of tiny sample sizes, but if the trend continues, it could all but crater his fantasy value moving forward.