Top Pitching Prospects For Fantasy Baseball 2024

Every pitching prospect on every team who could debut in 2024, broken down and analyzed by the Pitcher List dynasty staff, MLB team by team.

 

AL Central

By: Matt Heckman (@heckman_matt115)

Detroit Tigers

Wilmer Flores RHP (Double-A, 6′ 4″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	103.1	2.79	1.01	30.8%	5.5%	14.6%
2023	A+/AA	89.0	4.65	1.31	24.0%	8.8%	12.6%

Wilmer Flores is back to posting goose eggs ?

The @tigers' No. 3 prospect spins four two-hit frames for the @erie_seawolves. pic.twitter.com/BfGU9fpxwv

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 23, 2023

Overview: The Tigers signed Flores as an undrafted free agent following the shortened 2020 draft. Flores has made a name for himself by carrying high strikeout rates throughout his Minor League career. Injuries and early struggles skewed his 2023 stat line but he showed steady improvement as the season moved along.

Four-Seamer: The four-seam is Flores’ favorite pitch to throw. Inconsistent velocity points to relief risk, but the pitch can touch 98 mph on the gun at its best.

Cutter: Perhaps the most important pitch in Flores’ arsenal. He relies on the pitch heavily especially against lefties to try and generate groundballs.

Curveball: Flores’ go to out pitch once he gets to two strikes on righties. The pitch features big break and high spin that generates plenty of whiffs. His reliance on the pitch against lefties has exploited its spotty control.

Changeup: This is the pitch that could take Flores to the next level. Flores worked with Tread Athletics this past off-season to help develop it. Right now, he is clearly still not comfortable throwing it consistently.

Biggest Concern: There is plenty of relief risk in Flores’ profile. If his changeup never fully develops, Flores could shift to the pen instead of sticking in the rotation.

Conclusion: Although it is unlikely Flores will ever be a Top-30 fantasy starter, there is plenty of intrigue to his profile. A solid fastball/cutter combination paired with a plus-breaking pitch is a solid base if Flores can ever develop his changeup. Considering Detroit will need to add Flores to the 40-man, he is likely to debut next season. Expect him up around the All-Star Break as opposed to targeting him in drafts.

ETA: June 2024

 

Ty Madden RHP (Double-A, 6′ 3″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	122.2	3.01	1.10	26.5%	7.6%	13.0%
2023	AA	118.0	3.43	1.28	29.7%	10.2%	14.6%

 

Ty Madden brought the ? for the @erie_seawolves.

The @tigers' sixth-ranked prospect retired all 12 batters he faced, notching 6 K's and dialing his FB up to 98 mph: pic.twitter.com/Oguz19f4pM

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 15, 2023

 

Overview: Madden has done nothing but impress since being drafted 32nd overall back in 2021. His stuff really seemed to come to life after a midseason promotion in 2022 to Double-A. There he posted a 34.5% strikeout rate and a 2.78 ERA. He uses his starter’s frame and four-pitch mix to effectively throw strikes. His wind-up and three-quarter release point can create some deception for opposing batters making him difficult to hit.

Four-Seamer: When everything is going right for Madden, he is getting whiffs with his fastball. Particularly, he is locating the pitch up in the zone with run inside to righties. The fastball sits consistently in the mid-90s and is clearly the pitch Madden feels most comfortable with

Slider: This is Madden’s favorite pitch to throw when he is looking for a strikeout. Madden’s version of the slider takes the shape of a gyro as opposed to a sweeper. The pitch has effective break although the shape on it can be inconsistent at times. He has a tendency to hang one or two to lefties which can get him in trouble.

Curveball: Although Madden does throw both a curveball and slider, it can be difficult to differentiate the two. He is more comfortable throwing the slider and only throws a handful of curveballs per game.

Changeup: This is the biggest question mark in Madden’s profile. When Madden decided to throw it, the pitch has excellent movement sitting 84-86. If thrown right, the pitch has late downward action that can generate plenty of swings right over it. The issue is that he is not comfortable throwing it very often which limits his success against lefties.

Biggest Concern: Getting lefties out is the biggest issue in Madden’s profile. This past season, Madden held righties to a .197 batting average while lefties hit .267 with 12 home runs. His reliance on the high fastball will likely get him in trouble with the longball although playing home games in Comerica Park should help.

Conclusion: Madden’s profile looks more like a starter’s than the previously mentioned Flores, but we still are not talking about a future ace. Madden will need to learn how to locate his fastball down in order to ever reach his full potential. Considering Madden turns 24 in February, we should see him in Detroit next season. However, I would not count on him to be a significant contributor worth stashing on draft day.

ETA: July 2024

 

Jackson Jobe RHP (Double-A, 6′ 2″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	77.1	3.84	1.28	24.3%	9.0%	13.5%
2023	A/A+/AA	64	2.81	0.98	32.6%	2.3%	14.4%

Jackson Jobe's slider is literally too nasty for his catchers to handle pic.twitter.com/yG06dVmqBY

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) April 29, 2022

Overview: Anytime a high school pitcher gets drafted at third overall, you know the potential is high. Although it took some time for Jobe to live up to the expectations, everything seemed to click this year. Injuries delayed the start of his season, but he wound up finishing with a 2.81 ERA in 16 starts. His 33.5% strikeout rate was impressive, but his 2.6% walk rate was even more exciting. He is currently pitching in the AFL which will help get his inning totals up looking ahead to 2024.

Four-Seamer: Although the velocity on his fastball tapers off a bit as his starts move along, he still manages to sit 95/96 consistently. What sets Jobe apart from other starters is his ability to throw this pitch in any location. He effectively changes the eye level of the batter and routinely executes his fastball over the bottom-outside corner.

Slider: The slider is the pitch that first put Jobe on the map. Sitting in the low 80s, the pitch averages an RPM of over 3,000 diving down and away to righties. After struggling to consistently locate the pitch in his first professional season, the pitch looked virtually unhittable this year.

Cutter: Jobe does not rely on this pitch much, but it is effective in keeping batters off his four-seamer. The pitch sits 92/93 on the gun and is primarily used against left-handed batters.

Changeup: The effectiveness of Jobe’s changeup is the most underrated part of his game. He has confidence throwing the pitch to both lefties and righties and generates plenty of whiffs. Sitting in the mid to upper 80s, another plus-breaking pitch raises his ceiling even higher.

Biggest Concern: From a 2024 outlook, the biggest concern is how many innings the team will allow him to throw. Long-term, there are not many concerns except the lack of elite movement on his four-seam fastball. The continued development of his cutter could make the difference between an SP 2/3 and an ace.

Conclusion: There are not many pitching prospects with more upside than Jackson Jobe. He has by far the most in Detroit’s system and could be an elite contributor as soon as he comes up. The issue is that there are other options ahead of Jobe in the pecking order and Detroit will want to be extremely careful with their talented young arm.

ETA: July 2024

 

Sawyer-Gipson Long RHP (MLB, 6′ 4″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	123	4.32	1.17	23.9%	5.5%	13.9%
2023	MLB Stats	20	2.70	1.10	31.7%	9.8%	15.8%

 

 

Overview: Well, we already know that we will see Sawyer-Gipson Long in 2024 because he made his debut in 2023. Gipson-Long was one of the best stories of the final month, pitching excellent for Detroit after his promotion. His Major League strikeout rate—north of 30%—speaks to his upside, although his Minor League ERAs leave plenty to be cautious about.

Four-Seamer: The four-seam fastball is nothing that jumps off the page. Routinely sitting in the mid to low 90s, the pitch is not even SGL’s go-to fastball. The usage of this pitch jumps significantly when facing left-handed batters although his control of it is spotty at best. His 99th percentile allows the pitch to play up beyond the mediocre velocity.

Sinker: If Gipson-Long is going to rely on one fastball over the other, he should prioritize his sinker. The sinker comes with nearly 29″ of vertical drop on it helping to keep the ball in the park. He effectively locates the pitch down in the zone which is key to producing ground balls.

Slider: You often hear the phrase “crafty lefty” tossed around, but nobody ever talks about crafty righties. Gipson-Long has an excellent feel for his slider and will throw it in any count to any batter. Sitting around 82 mph, the pitch generated impressive whiff rates in his small Major League sample.

Changeup: Just as impressive as SGL’s slider is his changeup. Gipson-Long relies heavily on the pitch, throwing it more than either of his fastballs. He is not afraid to throw the pitch to righties which helps him keep even the best hitters off balance.

Biggest Concern: Pitchers without true feel for a fastball always carry some risk. One of the biggest issues for Gipson-Long in the Minor Leagues was preventing the long ball primarily off of his four-seam fastball.

Conclusion: Gipson-Long is difficult to evaluate. You do not often think of sinker-ball pitchers generating a lot of strikeouts, but that is exactly what he has done. Looking forward, his best chance of success is likely ditching his four-seam which should cause some regression in the K department. He profiles as a 3/4 starter in a rotation and could be worth taking a shot on during your drafts. I would avoid him in formats such as Ottoneu where home runs are more costly.

ETA: June 2024

 

Bryan Sammons LHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 28)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA	850	5.76	1.30	26.9%	8.2%	12.6%
2023	AA/AAA	82	4.83	1.46	26.2%	10.5%	11.6%

 

Overview: Bryan Sammons was originally drafted by Minnesota in the eighth round way back in 2018. He progressed slowly through the Minor Leagues with strong strikeout rates but poor walk rates and a high ERA. A rough couple of seasons in 2021 and 2022 led to Sammons’ release. He signed briefly with Houston before officially landing with Detroit for the entire 2023 season.

Four-Seamer: Sammons’ stuff is more quantity over quality. His four-seam sits just above 90 mph. Last year in Triple-A, the pitch got pummeled with an average exit velocity of over 92 mph.

Sinker: The sinker did not fair much better than his four-seam. With an inability to consistently locate the pitch down in the zone, the sinker struggles to perform consistently. The pitch features 15.8 inches of vertical break but is not a go-to pitch for Sammons.

Slider: His slider is where you see the most potential. He is most comfortable working with his breaking stuff and the slider is his most used pitch. He can use it effectively against lefties, but struggles to get swings and misses with the pitch against righties.

Curveball: Sammons’ curveball sits in the high-70s and can sometimes be difficult to differentiate from his slider. From limited looks, he tends to rely on this more heavily against righties but only generated a whiff rate of 16.7%.

Biggest Concern: Sammons has an obvious inability to throw strikes consistently. The highest zone percentage he posted while with Triple-A was 58% on the sinker. With underwhelming stuff, Sammons is clearly afraid to miss out over the zone and when he does, Minor League hitters have had no trouble making him pay.

Conclusion: Despite high strikeout rates throughout his Minor League career, there is not much, if any, upside to Sammons’ profile. Sammons will turn 29 in April of next season and is likely only going to come up if Detroit needs somebody to eat innings. He is not worth paying attention to for fantasy.

ETA: June 2024

 

Kansas City Royals

William Fleming RHP (Double-A, 6′ 6″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	122.1	5.00	1.38	18.4%	7.9%	10.9%
2023	A+/AA	107.1	4.11	1.42	19.5%	7.3%	9.1%

 

Overview: Fleming was an eleventh-round draft pick by the Mariners before also joining the Royals at the 2022 trade deadline. His violent wind-up ends with a full arm extension with a surprisingly low release point. He turns 25 before the start of the 2024 season and has yet to prove there is any significant upside in his profile.

Four-Seamer: Fleming gets decent velocity on his fastball, but according to FanGraphs, the pitch lacks any real shape. Without impressive velocity or any spin, the pitch generates hardly any swings and misses.

Slider: His slider sits around 78 mph with good movement down and away to righties. This is Fleming’s best swing-and-miss pitch and is the only true plus pitch in his arsenal.

Changeup: While researching Fleming, I was unable to come across any real scouting report on his changeup. The limited video I was able to find did not provide any clips of it either. The pitch is only given a FV of 40 on FanGraphs and is unlikely to be an impactful pitch at any point.

Biggest Concern: The lack of strikeouts and a true third pitch limits the overall ceiling in Fleming’s profile. Either the changeup will need to improve, or his fastball will need to gain velocity if he is ever going to hold any fantasy relevance.

Conclusion: The best-case scenario at this point seems like a bulk man out of the bullpen. Due to the lack of depth in Kansas City’s rotation, we could see Fleming get a chance in the Major Leagues next season. There is not currently a path for him to fantasy-relevant.

ETA: September 2024

 

Will Klein RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 5″, 23)

 

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA	43.2	10.51	2.43	23.7%	22.0%	8.0%
2023	AA/AAA	64.1	4.62	1.66	30.5%	12.5%	14.9%

 

Overview: Klein is already a true reliever pitching for Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate. Klein, a former fifth-round pick, has a big-time fastball paired with secondaries that have been able to induce plenty of whiffs. Control will be the key to seeing what situations he pitches in for the Royals.

Four-Seamer: Not only does Will Klein stand at 6’5″ on the mound, but the extension he gets through his delivery makes his already high-velocity fastball seem even faster. The pitch already sits at 97 with over five inches of arm-side run on it. He gets a ton of whiffs for a four-seam and loves to work up in the zone.

Cutter: His high spin cutter sits between 87-90 and produced a 48.6% whiff rate in Triple-A this season. According to FanGraphs, the pitch is still relatively new, but early indications point to this being a plus offering.

Curveball: After being drafted, Klein relied heavily on his curveball before the introduction to his cutter. The pitch features over 13 inches of induced vertical break although his whiff rate on this was disappointing.

Biggest Concern: The biggest issue for Klein throughout his professional career has been walks. He walked over 14% of batters in Triple-A this season and is unlikely to get high-leverage innings if he cannot throw strikes consistently.

Conclusion: The pure stuff is here for Klein to turn himself into a back-end arm out of the Royals’ bullpen. With the job seemingly wide open into 2024, he is a dark horse candidate for saves. With two plus offerings already, the key to reaching his ceiling is how well his control develops.

ETA: May 2024

 

Noah Cameron LHP (Double-A, 6′ 3″, 24)

 

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	65.2	3.56	1.13	36.7%	5.9%	17.9%
2023	A+/AA	107.1	5.28	1.40	28.3%	7.5%	15.2%

 

Overview: A low-velocity lefty with solid secondaries, Cameron fits the mold of a back-end starter. Despite posting high strikeout rates throughout the lower levels of the Minor Leagues, there is little in his profile that suggests there is significant long-term upside from a fantasy perspective.

Four-Seamer: Cameron’s fastball is the most underwhelming pitch in his arsenal. The pitch sits right around 90 mph consistently. He has shown the ability to touch as high as 94 and can cut in on right-handers.

Changeup: According to many scouts, the best part of Cameron’s changeup is his ability to hide it. The pitch sits in the low 80s and his excellent deception helps the pitch play better than it should. This is one of two go-to pitches for Cameron once he gets to two strikes.

Curveball: Once Cameron gets to two strikes, you better believe he is breaking out his curveball. The big-bender sits around 81 mph and is a pitch he has become especially comfortable throwing over the past year. This profiles as a plus pitch to attack left-handed batters with.

Biggest Concern: Although his windup allows his fastball and stuff to play up beyond their metrics, the low velocity is a potential issue moving forward. We saw his strikeout rate drop this season from 40.8% in High-A to 22.8% in Double-A. Cameron could continue to struggle against tougher competition.

Conclusion: With no need to add Cameron to the 40-man roster this off-season, he is likely behind several other arms in the pecking order for starts. That being said, he has a strong track record of success at the lower levels of the Minor Leagues and profiles to be a back-end starter long-term. If he happens to draw any starts against teams that struggle to hit lefties, he could be worth a stream in your fantasy leagues.

ETA: September 2024

 

Chicago White Sox

Cristian Mena RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 2″, 20)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+/AA	104.1	3.80	1.32	28.7%	8.7%	15.7%
2023	AA/AAA	133.2	4.85	1.41	26.9%	11.0%	14.8%

Cristian Mena did not get any help from the ABS system on Tuesday night in Charlotte. The high strike was not being called, and he paid with a quickly escalated pitch count. He goes 4.2 IP allowing 1R on 3H and 5BB. He struck out 6 on 51/94. #Knights #WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/8QxG5s0ORJ

— White Sox Daily (@dailywhitesox) September 13, 2023

Overview: The pandemic delayed Mena’s professional debut until 2021 when he looked solid despite a 7.82 ERA. A lanky right-hander who comes over the top, he does not fit the mold of your prototypical power pitcher. He instead relies heavily on his secondaries which have produced high strikeout rates up to this point.

Four-Seamer: The four-seam fastball is Mena’s most used pitch although it is likely one of his worst. The combination of mediocre velocity and a desire to work up in the zone casts doubts over how well it will perform against advanced hitters.

Slider: Mena has developed a new slider grip over the past year, providing yet another breaking pitch for him to use. He is still working on the consistency (he tends to overthrow the pitch at times), but it generated a whiff over 35% of the time in Triple-A this season.

Curveball: The curveball is short of a big breaker, which is why it can be difficult to differentiate from the slider at times, but is clearly Mena’s best pitch. He will go the low-80s curve in any count to any batter and gets plenty of strikeouts with it.

Fastball Variations: According to Triple-A data, Mena incorporated both a cutter and sinker into his arsenal at times. The sinker shows up in film with solid control down in the zone sitting about 3 mph slower than his four-seam. I have not gotten looks at the cutter, but another pitch to keep hitters off of his low-90s four-seam will certainly do no harm.

Biggest Concern: There are some concerns over whether or not he will be able to maintain his high strikeout rates in Triple-A and the Major Leagues. FanGraphs wrote a piece on why this is and is something worth checking out if you have the time.

Conclusion: With a starter’s arsenal at his disposal, Mena has as much upside as any pitcher in Chicago’s system. The curveball is already a plus offering, but he will need to work on developing his fastball variations if he wants to have long-term success. He is worth keeping an eye on for 2024 and with a strong likelihood of making his debut around mid-season.

ETA: July 2024

 

Nick Nastrini RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 3″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	116.2	3.93	1.11	35.1%	11.4%	15.7%
2023	AA/AAA	114.2	4.08	1.31	27.9%	10.8%	16.4%

Perfection from Nick Nastrini.

The No. 6 @whitesox prospect fans three as he retires all 15 batters he faces in his final @KnightsBaseball start of the year. pic.twitter.com/ThCddzROgS

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 24, 2023

Overview: Injuries caused Nastrini to fall to the fourth round of the 2021 draft where the Dodgers finally scooped him up. Instantly upon joining the organization, he looked like the steal of the draft with multiple plus pitches. He came to Chicago via trade this past July for Lance Lynn.

Four-Seamer: The velocity on Nastrini’s four-seam fastball is nothing to write home about (around 94 mph). Thanks to his release point and 18″ of IVB, Nastrini’s fastball generates swings and misses consistently at the top of the zone despite the pedestrian velocity.

Slider: Nastrini throws his slider in the mid-80s. The pitch has late drop on it and provides extremely high whiff rates against right-handed batters.

Curveball: The curveball comes with significantly more bend than his slider and sits closer to 79 mph. He only threw the pitch 25 times in Triple-A, but it generated a whiff rate of 66.7%.

Changeup: The best part of Nastrini’s changeup is the shape similarity between the pitch and his slider. The two pitches mimic each other in velocity and spin direction although his changeup has significantly more IVB.

Biggest Concern: Like so many Minor League pitchers with big-time stuff, Nastrini has struggled to limit his walk rates throughout the Minor Leagues. This creates some level of relief risk for Nastrini moving forward.

Conclusion: Nastrini’s high IVB fastball combined with two plus secondary offerings creates an upside not many pitchers in fantasy baseball have. If Chicago can help Nastrini produce more consistent results on the mound, he will be fantasy-relevant. For now, he profiles as a high-variance starter prone to blow-up games as well as dominant performances.

ETA: May 2024

 

Ky Bush LHP (Double-A, 6′ 6″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA	103	3.67	1.18	23.7%	6.8%	14.1%
2023	AA	71.2	6.91	1.65	24.1%	11.4%	11.5%

 

Overview: Another acquisition made by Chicago this past Trade Deadline. Busch, a former second-round pick by the Angels, has struggled with consistency throughout his professional career. A solid repertoire of secondary pitches creates an intriguing profile, but a lack of control significantly increases the relief risk in his profile.

Four-Seamer: Bush’s fastball velocity is nothing to write home about. The pitch sits in the low-90s consistently but is aided by his delivery. Bush seems to lull batters to sleep before explosive arm action helps the fastball sneak up on hitters.

Slider: The slider is the first of Bush’s breaking balls. The pitch sits 82-84 in most games and features significant horizontal sweep to it. The shape and control on this pitch allow him to get swings and misses against both lefties and righties.

Curveball: Bush’s curveball comes with significant bend to it. The shape on the pitch varies widely from the others in his arsenal which has made it easier for right-handers to pick up on it. He is still working to improve his command, but this pitch still has plus potential.

Changeup: A clear and distant fourth pitch in Bush’s arsenal. To be an effective starter, he will need this pitch to help attack right-handed batters although the command on it is still spotty. The velocity is a tick or two faster than his slider which could allow the two pitches to form a nice one-two punch if everything clicks.

Biggest Concern: Could not decide between spotty command and mediocre fastball velocity, so I will include both. The fastball is extremely hittable since losing velocity in college and the 16 home runs he surrendered in just 71.2 innings this year is a major red flag.

Conclusion: When the Angels drafted Bush in the second round, the hope was that he could maintain his 94-96 mph velocity on the fastball. So far in a starter’s role, this is clearly not possible. That combined with his inability to throw strikes consistently could lead him to the bullpen. there are plenty of question marks in the White Sox rotation which means he will likely get a chance at some point in 2024.

ETA: July 2024

 

Jake Eder LHP (Double-A, 6′ 4″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	DNP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	AA	56.2	6.35	1.68	26.2%	13.5%	14.5%

 

Overview: A fourth-round pick by Miami back in 2020, Jake Eder came over in the Jake Burger trade from this years deadline. Injuries forced Eder to miss the entire 2022 season and delayed the start to his 2023 season. On the mound, he has shown flashes of brilliance, but his inconsistent results date back to his collegiate days casting doubt over his future production.

Four-Seamer: Typically, left-handed starters carry lower velocities than righties. Eder’s fastball is one of the exceptions as the pitch sits constantly 94-96 with the ability to touch 97. He has both late rise and arm-side run to the pitch allowing it to work at the top of the zone.

Slider: When on, his slider is one of the best in all of Minor League Baseball. Eder has worked to improve the pitch’s spin rate and gets a ton of swings and misses. This slider would be classified as more of a sweeper at this point.

Changeup: This could be the key to allowing Eder to get to the next level. His changeup currently sits in the low-80s although his command on it has been inconsistent this season. Right-handed batters have had far more success against Eder so far which puts more pressure on his changeup to improve.

Biggest Concern: Inconsistencies. Eder walked over 13% of batters he faced this season with a 6.35 ERA. For as good as his stuff can be, if Eder cannot improve his command, he will continue struggling to find success on the mound.

Conclusion: The ceiling here is a left-handed version of Spencer Strider. That is high praise, but the fastball/slider combination is good enough to make that a possibility. The floor and perhaps more likely outcome is Gregory Soto. 2024 will be a big year of development for Eder and if he looks as he did back in 2021, we could see him make his Major League debut.

ETA: August 2024

 

Kohl Simas RHP (High-A, 6′ 1″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/AA	68	4.24	1.32	28.8%	10.2%	11.3%
2023	A+	82.2	6.42	1.63	26.6%	10.9%	11.3%

 

Overview: An undrafted free agent back in 2021, Simas has shown flashes of increased velocity with an exciting arm. A strong 2022 campaign was followed up by a disappointing 2023 season but there is still plenty of potential here if it ever fully clicks.

Four-Seamer: At the time Simas was drafted, his velocity sat in the 91-93 range. However, since joining the organization he has shown flashes of touching 96 on the heater. With the increased velocity and significant arm-side run, his fastball could be a plus pitch against right-handed batters.

Curveball: Simas throws a big bending curveball that sits in the upper-70s. The movement on it can sometimes be difficult to differentiate from a gyro slider, but when it is on the big bend can devastate right-handed hitters.

Changeup: A second off-speed pitch gets mixed in on occasion, but this is clearly not a pitch Simas is super comfortable throwing. He primarily uses it against left-handed batters, but at this point, it is more of a “show me” pitch than anything.

Biggest Concern: So far, he has been unable to hold his increased velocity deep into games and without a true third pitch he has a questionable ceiling. He also posted an ERA of over six this year casting doubt over whether he will ever reach his potential.

Conclusion: There is not a whole lot of fantasy relevance here, especially for 2024. Simas spent the entire year in High-A and his loose arm action is likely going to serve best as a reliever as opposed to a starter. That being said, his fastball/curveball combination is at least intriguing if he could ever add a third pitch.

ETA: September 2024

 

Cleveland Guardians

Joey Cantillo LHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA	60.2	1.93	1.09	35.5%	11.4%	17.1%
2023	AA/AAA	119.1	4.07	1.44	28.0%	12.2%	14.2%

Joey Cantillo was pumping gas! Up to 98 ⛽️throwing a curve with up to 66 inches of drop and a nasty change that just dies at the plate.
pic.twitter.com/VQ2EvCCpGq

— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) July 9, 2023

Overview: A 16th-round draft pick way back in 2017, the path throughout the Minor Leagues has been slow and steady for Cantillo. He joined Cleveland’s organization in the Mike Clevenger trade but was far from the headline of that deal. A 1.85 ERA in 24.1 Double-A-innings to start the year put his name on the dynasty map this season. He is one of the most likely pitchers on this list to make his debut in 2024.

Four-Seamer: Fastball velocity has been the key to Cantillo’s rise through prospect ranks. He now touches as high as 98 mph and loves to work up in the zone. He limits hard contact and if he can maintain these velocity gains his ceiling could continue to rise harder.

Curveball: Cantillo’s curveball comes with significant vertical drop and is even more deceptive thanks to his low arm slot. The pitch falls down and away from lefties and generated a whiff rate of over 41% in Triple-A this past season.

Changeup: Those who have watched Cantillo pitch consistently rave about his changeup. With late drop on it, the pitch can be used as a strikeout pitch to both lefties and righties. The deception on it works in his favor and profiles to be a plus pitch.

Slider: Although his slider is not given a lot of praise on FanGraphs (35 FV), he relies on this pitch a lot. He sits around 85 mph with it and generates strong whiff rates so far in Triple-A. He is still working on commanding the pitch, but the 35 FV grade seems low.

Biggest Concern: Walks have been an issue for Cantillo throughout his Minor League career. He walked over 13% of batters this past season with far too many pitches out of the strike zone. The pitch with his highest in-zone percentage was his four-seamer and that was just 48.7%.

Conclusion: There is a starter’s arsenal here and he has shown the ability to increase velocity which could continue. We have grown to trust Cleveland’s organization and hopefully, they can get him to throw more pitches in the strike zone. If he can do this, he will be fantasy-relevant. if not, he is likely to shuttle between the MLB and Triple-A next season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Will Dion LHP (Double-A, 5’10”, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	128	2.11	1.01	31.0%	6.7%	15.5%
2023	A+/AA	116.2	2.39	1.08	27.9%	7.6%	13.1%

The @CleGuardians' pitching factory never seems to have a bad year.

Every season there seems to be another arm, or two, or three, waiting in the wings.

A candidate for that role next year could be lefthander Will Dion.https://t.co/IdpFmaYFFF pic.twitter.com/MTsL1en2KC

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) October 10, 2023

Overview: With a wind-up almost identical to Clayton Kershaw’s, there is no doubt who this young lefty grew up idolizing. Dion was a ninth-round draft pick out of McNeese State in 2021 and has dominated since joining the league. Relying heavily on his secondary pitches, Dion has had tremendous success so far. His professional ERA sits at just 2.14 with a strikeout rate of over 30%.

Four-Seamer: The velocity is this pitch is discouraging. Dion averages about 88 on the fastball although FanGraphs notes that he does get decent ride on it. Similar to Kershaw, the pitch plays up although he has yet to pitch above Double-A.

Curveball: Can I just keep comping him to Kershaw? The curveball is filthy and is borderline unhittable for lefties. This is just one of the three plus secondary offerings that Dion possesses. He has excellent feel for his upper-70s curveball and will throw it in any count. This is one of the main reasons he has been able to strike so many batters out.

Changeup: Plus breaking pitch number two is the changeup. He has increased his usage on this pitch over the years. He effectively locates the pitch in the lower part of the zone to keep hitters off balance.

Slider: Dion’s slide sits about 6 mph faster than his curveball. The pitch obviously comes with less drop than his curveball, but is still extremely effective at generating whiffs. The only concern with this pitch is that it can get flat at times leading to hanging breaking balls batters can punish.

Biggest Concern: We rarely see pitchers who sit below 90 mph with their fastball find success at the Major League level. Even with the deception he gets on the pitch, it is fair to wonder how much success he will have against Major League hitters.

Conclusion: There is no denying that Dion has some filthy secondary pitches. His control is excellent and the visual reminder of Kershaw casts excitement on his profile. Despite his superb Minor League numbers, he is likely to settle into the back end of the rotation without more velocity. The 2023 run that Cristopher Sanchez went on is likely a fair comp for his ceiling. He is likely to be matchup-dependent for fantasy managers in 2024.

ETA: June 2024

 

Tanner Burns RHP (Double-A, 6′ 0″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA	88.2	3.55	1.35	23.7%	11.6%	12.4%
2023	AA	86.2	3.01	1.26	23.9%	11.4%	11.6%

 

Overview: Since being selected 36th overall in the 2020 draft, Burns has struggled to stay healthy. After dealing with injuries his first two seasons, he split time this year between the rotation and bullpen. The ERA has always looked good, but the peripherals point to a pitcher who could struggle as he continues progressing through the Minor Leagues

Four-Seamer: The scouting report on Burns coming out of Auburn was that he sat between 92-95. Whether it is the rigor of professional baseball or the injuries adding up, Burns velocity now sits 2-3 mph slower than it did in college. The fastball comes with good run in on right-handed batters, but Burns needs to learn how to locate the pitch down in the zone since it lacks the velocity to play at the top.

Curveball: Burns’ curveball takes a 12-6 shape. He relies on the pitch specifically to combat left-handed batters and has good command over it. Sitting in the mid-70s, the pitch profiles to be close to average.

Changeup: His changeup is a distant fourth pitch for Burns although it comes with good vertical drop. The threat of it helps keep lefties off balance, but FanGraphs only gives the pitch a future value of 35.

Slider: This is his favorite pitch and the go-to pitch when Burns is looking for a strikeout against right-handed batters. He throws it harder than his curveball and gives it a gyro-shape. There are times when it flattens out and causes issues for him, but overall it is an above-average pitch.

Biggest Concern: The lack of fastball velocity has already resulted in Burns’ strikeout rate falling since being promoted to Double-A. Without impeccable control, it is fair to wonder if Burns has what it takes to be a full-time starter.

Conclusion: When Burns was drafted, the thought was if he can add just a tick or two more to his fastball velocity, he could really take off. Instead, the velocity has dropped and he has had issues throwing strikes as consistently as he did in college. His future role is likely as a swing-man as opposed to an impactful starter.

ETA: June 2024

 

Jack Leftwich RHP (Double-A, 6′ 4″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	109.1	2.72	0.91	33.0%	5.7%	16.0%
2023	AA	78	5.19	1.23	21.5%	7.7%	12.8%

 

Overview: Since joining Cleveland’s organization, Leftwich has shown impressive control. His first full season in 2022 saw Leftwich strike out 33% of batters with a walk rate under six percent. His three-pitch mix did not work as well this season against the tougher competition of Double-A. Control is still his best attribute although it is fair to question his upside.

Four-Seamer: After sitting in the mid-90s at the end of his collegiate career, Leftwich’s velocity has tapered off a bit. He sits 92-94 comfortably with decent arm-side run. The pitch profiles closer to average although could move up on the scale if his velocity increases.

Changeup: From the limited video I have watched, his changeup is a distant third pitch primarily used to get lefties. Other reports cite the changeup as the pitch Leftwich will need to continue developing in order to reach the Major Leagues as a starter.

Slider: This is Leftwich’s best pitch. Taking more of a gyro shape, the pitch has excellent late break on it down and away to righties. His violent wind-up creates deception on the pitch helping it to pair nicely with his fastball.

Biggest Concern: With only one pitch that profiles to have above-average potential, it is difficult to imagine Leftwich generating enough strikeouts to be fantasy-relevant.

Conclusion: As we have already started to see, Leftwich is likely to struggle in a starters role as he continues to face tougher competition. With fiery arm action, he could find success in a reliever role which is how I expect we will see him in 2024.

ETA: June 2024

 

Daniel Espino RHP (Double-A, 6′ 2″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA	18.1	2.45	0.71	51.5%	5.9%	23%
2023	DNP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

CLE RHP Daniel Espino is absolutely filthy. He struck out 9 over 4 innings today.

(There are only 8 here because they didn’t show the other one, but it was on a fastball) pic.twitter.com/iF8Jd8TYnB

— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) July 16, 2021

Overview: Based purely on upside and arm talent, there might not be a better pitcher in the Minor Leagues. Espino’s fastball/slider combination is filthy and is why his career strikeout rate sits above 40%. Espino did not pitch at all in 2023, but the upside could propel him quickly through the Minor Leagues.

Four-Seamer: Espino’s four-seam fastball has the potential to be an elite offering. Sitting consistently in the upper 90s, this pitch has topped out as high as 103. His short arm delivery allows the pitch to sneak up on batters and the excellent late rise and run in on righties allows the pitch to play especially well at the top of the zone.

Changeup: Espino utilizes a changeup to help attack lefties, but he does not go to it very often. According to FanGraphs, the last time we saw him on a mound he threw the pitch under five percent of the time. He has good command of the pitch, but it will be interesting to see if he can get more comfortable throwing it.

Curveball: The curveball is almost as rarely used as his changeup. The pitch sits a few ticks slower than his slider and has decent movement. The pitch really just adds another swing-and-miss pitch to Espino’s already impressive arsenal.

Slider: This is Espino’s money pitch. He is comfortable throwing this pitch to both righties and lefties in any count. He has excellent command with the ability to throw it front door, back door, or any door for that matter. His spin and velocity (near 90 mph) make the pitch virtually unhittable and is a borderline elite offering.

Biggest Concern: Durability is the issue. Espino pitched just 18.1 innings in 2022 and failed to throw a single pitch in 2023. We are not talking about ACL injuries either. Shoulder concerns could force Espino into a high-leverage relief role in the future.

Conclusion: Cleveland is likely to be extremely careful with a talent like Espino. The likelihood of him making his Major League debut in 2024 is low, but he is the kind of talent to make it happen. Fantasy managers should keep their eye on his health early next year because he could be a difference-maker if healthy.

ETA: September 2024

 

Minnesota Twins

David Festa RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 6″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	103.2	2.43	1.09	26.2%	8.2%	16.4%
2023	AA/AAA	92.1	4.19	1.39	30.1%	10.6%	15.8%

 

Overview: Standing at 6’6″, the biggest question for Festa has always been how well can he repeat his delivery. So far, this has not been an issue for Festa as he has cruised through the Minor Leagues. Now in Triple-A with an enticing three-pitch mix, we should see Festa make his Major League debut in 2024. He struck out over 30% of batters he faced this past season speaking to his fantasy upside.

Four-Seamer: You would think that Festa’s size would create pretty impressive velocity appearances which his not quite the case. His fastball sits in the mid 90s, most frequently around 94, but he does not get the kind of extension to allow the pitch to play higher than that. He gets good IVB on the ball which helps the pitch generate whiffs at the top of the zone. This is a slightly above average pitch which Festa controls well.

Changeup: Festa’s changeup and slider both sit around the same velocity and profile to be strong secondary offerings. The pitch has excellent late life diving both down and away from left-handed batters. He generated a 40.4% whiff rate on it in Triple-A last year.

Slider: The slider is what comes with the most concern for me. Although Festa relies on it heavily, the pitch does not have as much movement as we are used to seeing. This makes his “bad” sliders especially flat and can result in batters doing big damage off of them. Hopefully, the Twins can refine this pitch to get more sweep on it like they have with so many other sliders in the organization.

Biggest Concern: Seeing how his body holds up across a starter’s workload is the biggest question mark. Festa has never eclipsed 103.2 innings in a professional season and pitchers of his size tend to come with durability concerns.

Conclusion: There is a lot to like in Festa’s profile and the fact he is bound to make his debut in 2023 makes things even better. High spin-sliders combined with high IVB fastballs have seen a lot of success in recent years. Consider that neither of those is Festa’s best pitch and there is plenty to dream about. He is a name to watch for on draft day next season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Simeon Woods-Richardson RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 3″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	MLB Stats	5.0	3.60	1.00	15.0%	10.0%	9.9%
2023	MLB Stats	4.2	9.64	2.14	20.8%	12.5%	7.1%

 

Overview: Woods-Richardson has been a big time prospect in three different systems. First with the Mets, then the Blue Jays, and finally landing with the Twins. The results have gotten progressively worse as he has progressed through the Minor Leagues and his numbers in two brief Big-League stints have been far from impressive.

Four-Seamer: Although Woods-Richardson’s fastball plays above its velocity, the pitch still profiles as below average. Sitting around 90 mph, he struggles to get whiffs on it even with over 18 inches of IVB.

Changeup: The changeup sits in the low 80s and is how SWR likes to attack left-handed batters. He has not shown an ability to command it consistently and was only able to throw it in the zone 48.5% of the time in Triple-A this season.

Slider: Coming through the Minor Leagues, he was known for relying more heavily on a curveball than his slider. He has since all but ditched the curve in favor of his slider. He has added velocity to the pitch although it lacks the late drop or big sweeping action that helps generate whiffs. The pitch profiles close to average and only really effective against right-handed hitters.

Biggest Concern: The lack of a true plus pitch is the biggest concern. Fastball/changeup guys do not usually have much success at the Major League level and that is especially true when the fastball averages below 91 mph.

Conclusion: Sometimes prospects never live up to the hype that they receive while in the Minor Leagues. This is true in this case and at best SWR profiles to be a swingman for Minnesota. There is not much fantasy relevance here or any need for him to be rostered in 2024.

ETA: April 2024

 

Blayne Enlow RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 3″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/AA	59.0	4.73	1.63	24.0%	11.4%	12.1%
2023	AA/AAA	99.1	5.35	1.34	25.2%	7.4%	11.3%

Blayne Enlow continues his impressive start to the season in Wichita?

Enlow goes 5.1 innings, strikes out 10 and walks 0, allowing just 1 run. He's now striking out 31.8% and walking just 6.8% so far this season? pic.twitter.com/enFsNBQXYw

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) May 19, 2023

Overview: Formerly a third-round pick from 2017, Enlow has slowly worked his way up through Minnesota’s system. Injuries have limited his ability to stay on the field, but he comes with one of the deepest arsenals in the Minor Leagues. The results have been inconsistent, but there is reason to believe that with health will come consistency and hopefully, a fantasy-relevant profile.

Four-Seamer: Early on in his Minor League career, Enlow was sitting 94-96 with his four-seam. However, since his Tommy John surgery, Enlow has been sitting much closer to 92 mph.  Without a ton of movement, this is one of Enlow’s weaker pitches. However, if the velocity comes back he could find more success.

Changeup: Enlow’s changeup is filthy. With a ton of arm-side run and a ton of drop, the pitch is an excellent swing-and-miss pitch. The best part is his comfort in throwing it to both righties and lefties. Visually, this is a plus pitch.

Slider: Like many pitchers in the Twins’ organization, Enlow’s slider is a sweeper. The pitch is thrown in the low-80s with a ton of break. He is still working on developing a consistent feel for it although there is belief this could turn into another plus offering from Enlow.

Curveball: This is his bread-and-butter. Enlow’s curveball is just short of a 12-6 breaker thrown 79-81 mph. Featuring big drop, it is a bit puzzling as to why he did not generate more whiffs on the pitch upon his promotion to Triple-A.

Cutter: For a while it was difficult to differentiate the slider from Enlow’s cutter. Now that the slider has taken more sweeper characteristics, it is easier to decipher. Enlow’s cutter sits about 6 mph faster than the sweeper and provides a nice variant to his four-seamer. He does not get a ton of movement on it, but he leans on it even more than his four-seam.

Biggest Concern: Which Enlow is the real Enlow? Prior to Tommy John surgery, Enlow was a low-variance pitcher who generated few strikeouts. He struggled upon returning to the mound before seeing his numbers take off in Double-A during 2023. Figuring out if he can maintain these numbers consistently is the biggest question mark moving forward.

Conclusion: Enlow’s pitch mix and 2023 results create an intriguing sleeper profile. His Triple-A whiff rates do not jump off the page, but the pure stuff screams that he might be a tweak or two away from having everything click. He is not going to overpower anybody, but in the right matchup, he could be a useful fantasy streamer.

ETA: July 2024

 

Marco Raya RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A	65.0	3.05	1.08	28.9%	8.7%	14.5%
2023	A+/AA	62.2	4.02	1.07	25.3%	8.6%	12.6%

Marco Raya shoved last night in the @WindSurgeICT win?

4 IP
1 H
0 R
1 BB
4 K

Over the last 30 days, Raya has a 0.56 ERA and a .393 opponent OPS in 16 IP?#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/5qmzzWFpTi

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) September 16, 2023

Overview: Despite being a fourth-round pick in 2020, we had to wait to see Raya pitch on a mound until 2022.  He impressed in his debut posting a 3.05 across 65 innings. A bit undersized, Raya showed off a four-pitch mix that led to a strikeout rate of just under 30%. The Twins are still working on building up his innings, but there is a lot of talent in his profile.

Four-Seamer: There is plenty to like from this offering. Whether it is the upper-90s fastball that can touch triple-digits, or it is the 18.3″ of IVB he gets, this pitch profiles to be a plus offering in the future. Raya attacks hitters at the top of the zone and should continue having success with this pitch.

Changeup: This is such an underrated pitch. Raya’s changeup is filthy sitting in the upper-80s. The pitch consistently hits 89 mph and dives down and away from left-handed batters. Although the pitch is only graded as a 40 FV on FanGraphs, the improvements Raya showed with this last season are enough to convince me this could be at least an average offering.

Slider: This is Raya’s best out-pitch. He will throw his big slider to both righties and lefties. According to MLB.com, the pitch comes with elite spin rates that helps generate a ton of whiffs. He sits 83-85 with it and has excellent control over it.

Curveball: Although he relies on the curveball less than the slider, this is still a strong pitch for Raya. He uses this more against lefties and it sits a bit softer than his slider (79-81 mph). Both have a chance to be plus offerings although the curveball needs a bit more refinement.

Biggest Concern: The ability to handle a starter’s workload. Raya did not throw more than four innings in any start this season and lasted less than three in seven starts. 65 innings pitched is not enough innings to be a Major League starter.

Conclusion: From a pure stuff standpoint, there is a lot to like in Raya’s profile. However, performing well across 65 innings is a lot easier to do than performing well across 165 innings. I do not expect Raya to make his debut next season, but he has enough upside to warrant keeping on your fantasy radars. 2024 marks a big year for his development.

ETA: September 2024

 

Zebby Matthews RHP (High-A, 6′ 5″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	CPX/A	3.0	0.00	0.33	60.0%	0.0%	32.5%
2023	A/A+	105.1	3.84	1.05	26.4%	3.5%	13.8%

 

Overview: A late-round selection from 2022, Matthews was excellent in his first full season of professional ball. A true control specialist who is developing increased velocity as well as continually refining his pitch arsenal. He will be 24 in May of next year and could be a fast mover if the strides he made in 2023 stick.

Four-Seamer: Matthews was not known for velocity on his fastball coming out of college, but reports are that his fastball is now sitting around 94 since joining the Twins organization. He has always had excellent feel and increased velocity would certainly raise his ceiling.

Changeup: Matthews does not throw the changeup a lot, but when he does it is primarily to left-handed batters. The pitch sits 84-85 and he is still working to develop a feel for it. He throws it for plenty of strikes, but the overall command on the pitch still requires some improvement.

Slider: As the Twins do, they have worked with Matthews to develop a slider that looks like a sweeper. He is still working on the feel on this, but if there is one organization to trust when it comes to sweepers, it is Minnesota.

Cutter: While his slider has turned into a sweeper, Matthews’ old slider has transformed into more of a cutter. This pitch sits in the upper 80s and is another pitch that is a work in progress. If he continues to improve, this could be an effective pitch to keep batters off of his four-seam.

Biggest Concern: Strikeouts are often easy to come by in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues. The real challenge is maintaining these rates after being promoted. We have already seen his strikeout rate drop from 35.3% in Low-A to 21.5% in High-A.

Conclusion: Any pitcher with a deep arsenal automatically has the potential to make it to the Major Leagues as a starter. The key to Matthews developing into a useful one will be watching to see if he maintains/further improves the velocity on his fastball. There is deep sleeper upside here making Matthews somebody to keep an eye on throughout 2024.

ETA: September 2024

 

AL East

By: Martin Sekulski (@M_Ski22)

Baltimore Orioles

Chayce McDermott RHP (Triple-A, 6’3″, 25)

Chayce McDermott has been pitching very well lately and that continued today.

7 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 7 K

In 9 GS for Norfolk, McDermott has a 2.56 ERA and more importantly, only has more than two walks in one of his last seven starts.#Birdland pic.twitter.com/siTfBk8OVu

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) September 3, 2023

Overview: Drafted by Astros in 2021 as inexperienced collegiate arm (139 IP), post Tommy John. Traded to O’s in 2022. Since the trade, has maintained 30+% K-rate, although walks have remained high.

Four-Seam Fastball: Sits low-90s, but can reach 95 mph with plus movement in the zone. Double digit SwStr%. Command issues linger despite bat-missing ability

Curve: Best off-speed offering; mid-to-upper 70s with high spin rates (2800+) with sweeping action

Slider: Nice third pitch with less sweep than curveball; 32.1% Whiff rate

Concerns: Inexperienced arm with command issues, needs to cut down on walks

Conclusion: Orioles have had recent success with late bloomers that feature above-average off-speed pitches (Bradish & Kremer) and McDermott fits the bill. Mid-to-back end rotation piece with high win potential and open rotation spots.

Super Loose ETA:  Darkhorse Opening Day roster candidate; more likely early-summer 2024

 

Cade Povich LHP (Triple-A, 6’3″, 23)

No. 11 @Orioles prospect Cade Povich struck out the first 6 batters he faced as he carried a perfecto into the 7th for the @BowieBaysox:
7 IP
1 H
0 R
0 BB
13 K (career high) pic.twitter.com/FqJ4XjQkCm

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 16, 2023

Overview: JuCo transfer turned Big 10 Pitcher of the Year; 2021 3rd Round Pick (MIN), traded to O’s in 2022; Smooth left-handed delivery with no wasted effort; Five-pitch mix that keeps hitters guessing; Third in strikeouts in MiLB this season

Four-Seam Fastball: Gradually improving velo, currently sits low-90s with the ability to crank up as high as 96mph; throws pitches in all four quadrants

Changeup: Unquestionably best off-speed offering; good depth with fade action yielding highest Whiff% (36%)

Curve: Slow curve with average movement; Generates plenty of whiffs, but susceptible to being hit hard

Slider: Plenty of sweeping movement, but inconsistent depth; tendency to stray away from pitch at times

Cutter: Second most used pitch; still developing but provides nice balance from four-seam; sits in upper-80s

Concerns: Walks have spiked this year but still missing tons of bats; needs to increase slider utilization

Conclusion: Povich offers a consistent look from the left side with three plus offerings; Has mid-rotation upside if he can command all pitches consistently

Super Loose ETA:  June 2024

 

DL Hall LHP (MLB, 6’2″, 25)

Career save 1⃣ for DL Hall

The @Orioles rookie freezes Oswaldo Cabrera to lock down the victory for Baltimore. pic.twitter.com/l2A7Yn8AGD

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) October 1, 2022

Overview: Former top-5 organizational prospect; 2017 1st round pick; Elite stuff but often injured; Questions long term about starter or reliever, currently in bullpen to maximize innings

Four-Seam Fastball: Throws over 50% of the time; upper-90s, can reach triple-digits with good carry in zone

Changeup: Filthy change with 10-12 mph variance from FB; 12+ inches of horizontal break

Curve: Slow curve with average movement; Generates plenty of whiffs, but susceptible to being hit hard

Slider: Plenty of sweeping movement, but inconsistent depth; tendency to stray away from pitch at times

Concerns: Injuries are a huge concern, in addition to reliever risk

Conclusion: The Orioles love Hall as he’s currently part of their MLB roster working exclusively from the pen; Hall has the best prospect stuff in the organization but the Orioles have not committed his role moving forward.

Super Loose ETA:  Debuted; Opening Day roster 2024

 

Carter Baumler RHP (Low-A, 6’2″, 21)

Overview: 2020 5th round selection, underwent TJ the same season; Shoulder injury cut short 2022; when healthy, big strikeout potential with polished delivery and three solid offerings

Four-Seam Fastball: 90-94 mph, scouts see added velocity when healthy

Changeup: Developing

Curve: Potential plus-pitch, but limited sample

Concerns: Health, health, and more health

Conclusion: The Orioles will need to see a healthy run from Baumler before getting aggressive with him. Just 28 professional innings with positive results.

Super Loose ETA:  Late 2024 at earliest

 

Luis De Leon LHP (Low-A, 6’3″, 20)

Overview: 2020 International signee; power arm with plus movement; Absolutely dominated the FCL and low-A this season

Four-Seam Fastball: Mid-to-upper 90s, scouts see added velocity when healthy

Changeup: Nice speed variance with good fade

Slider: Sharp breaker; able to throw in any count

Concerns: Projectable frame needs to get stronger/bigger

Conclusion: De Leon has what it takes to rise quickly; Continued bat missing and improved walk rates will accelerate his timetable

Super Loose ETA:  Late 2024 at earliest

 

Boston Red Sox

Wikelman Gonzalez RHP (AA, 6’0″, 20)

Bryan Mata RHP (AAA, 6’3″, 24)

Shane Drohan LHP (AAA, 6’3″, 24)

Luis Perales RHP (High-A, 6’1″, 20)

Isaac Coffey RHP (Double-A, 6’1″, 23)

 

New York Yankees

Clayton Beeter RHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 23)

Will Warren RHP (AAA, 6’2″, 24)

Chase Hampton RHP  (AAA, 6’2″, 22)

Yankees top pitching prospect Chase Hampton doing what Chase Hampton does.

5.0 IP | 4 H | 0 R | 1 BB | 6 K pic.twitter.com/JVfjpatrjy

— Somerset Patriots (@SOMPatriots) August 23, 2023

Drew Thorpe RHP (AA, 6’4″, 23)

 

Richard Fitts RHP (AA, 6’3″, 23)

 

Tampa Bay Rays

Mason Montgomery LHP (AAA, 6’2″, 23)

Cole Wilcox RHP (AA, 6’5″, 24)

Jacob Lopez LHP (MLB, 6’2″, 25)

Santiago Suarez RHP (A, 6’2″, 18)

Ian Seymour LHP (AA, 6′, 24)

 

Toronto Blue Jays

Ricky Tiedemann LHP (AAA, 6’4″, 21)

 

Adam Macko LHP (A+, 6′, 22)

Hayden Juenger RHP (AAA, 6′, 23)

Brandon Barriera LHP (A, 6’2″, 19)

Chad Dallas RHP (AA, 5’11”, 23)

 

AL West

By: Steve Dwyer (@SteveDwyer23)

Houston Astros

Spencer Arrighetti, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2/205)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	13.2	2.63	0.88	40%	3.6%
2022	AA	106.2	4.73	1.46	32.1%	11.6%
2023	AAA	124.2	4.40	1.25	27.1%	11.3%

Overview: One of the best pitching prospects in the Astros system, Arrighetti is a strikeout pitcher. 315 strikeouts in his 245 career minor league innings, Arrighetti has carried this all the way to Triple-A. Knocking on the door of an MLB debut, Arrighetti is an organization that gets the most out of its pitching prospects.

Fastball: His second best pitch is his mid to high 90s fastball. This pitch jumps on hitters and often blows by them.

Curveball: More of a 12-6 breaking pitch compared to his slider, Arrighetti mixes in this curve to freeze hitters. At times he can hang it or miss hit location, so he’ll need to work on commanding this pitch more.

Slider: The best pitch in his arsenal, Arrighetti throws a low to mid-80s slider with great break. Mixed in with his fastball, this is his strikeout pitch as it breaks somewhat like a slurve.

Changeup: His weakest pitch, Arrighetti throws a low to mid-80s changeup that needs to improve with some sort of break.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Arrighetti has had a walk rate of over 11% in his two full minor league seasons. Arrighetti has the stuff to stick as a starter but if the command doesn’t improve, he may move to long relief or a back-end spot in the bullpen.

Conclusion: With Framber Valdez entering arbitration and Justin Verlander only having one more year on his contract, Arrighetti figures to be a part of the Astros rotation in the coming years. He could take the same path as Hunter Brown, pitching in long relief or out of the bullpen in 2024 with a full rotation spot potentially opening in 2025.   

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Rhett Kouba, RHP (Triple-A, 6’0/180)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	18.1	2.45	1.04	27.4%	2.7%
2022	AA	70.2	4.08	1.32	27.9%	8.9%
2023	AAA	128	3.45	1.20	25.3%	6.9%

Overview: Like Arrighetti, Kouba is knocking on the doorstep of making his MLB debut. Kouba pitched great in Double-A in 2023, with a 3.27 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 110 innings. Triple-A was not as successful as he gave up 21 hits in 18 innings. Kouba also saw his walks total 14 in just 18 innings at Triple-A despite only walking 23 in his 110 Double-A innings.

Fastball: Kouba has a 92-94 mph fastball that doesn’t have a ton of movement. It works well with his change and slider but might need some improvement to break in as a starter in the big leagues.

Curveball: The weakest pitch in his bag, Kouba doesn’t throw his curve that often. It sits in the mid to high 70s with decent break.

Slider: A good low to mid-80s slider that breaks across the zone for right-handed hitters, Kouba sometimes doesn’t get the hardest shape on this pitch. If he can consistently throw this pitch with solid movement, he can become a solid starter.

Changeup: The best pitch Kouba throws is his low 80s changeup because of the above-average drop. This has the potential to be a consistently above-average pitch.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Kouba has mostly average stuff for a starter. He was hit around at a much higher rate in his short 18-inning stint at Triple-A to end the year. Kouba could be destined for a long relief role but should continue to start while at Triple-A in 2024.

Conclusion: Kouba pitches well and until Triple-A, has had plus command. If advanced hitters lay off the average offerings or square the pitches up, a bullpen role is more likely.

ETA: July 2024

 

Colton Gordon, LHP (Triple-A, 6’4/225)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A+	53.2	2.35	0.80	38.6%	4%
2023	AAA	128.1	4.14	1.34	27.1%	10.4%

Overview: Drafted in the 8^th round in 2021, Gordon made his full season debut across 3 levels in 2022 and excelled. With an elite 4 percent walk rate, Gordon issued just 8 free passes in 53.2 innings. Gordon has racked up the strikeouts in his minor league career with 229 in 182 innings. At 6’4 and 225 pounds, Gordon has a good chance at staying durable throughout the season if he were to eat innings for the Astros in 2024.

Fastball: A low 90s fastball that is more of a location pitch, Gordon mixes in his fastball well with his off-speed to keep hitters guessing.

Curveball: A mid-70s curveball, Gordon gets good break on this pitch and mixes it well with his slider. This pitch likely grades out as average.

Slider: Potentially his best pitch, his slider has good horizontal and vertical breaks and gets it down and in on right-handed hitters.

Changeup: A low 80s changeup, Gordon has another average offering here that sometimes flashes above average. It plays well off his fastball and goes low and away to right-handed hitters.

Biggest Concerns: Command and stuff. As mentioned at the start, Gordon put up an elite walk rate in his first full season but saw it come back down to earth in 2023. Higher level competition seemed to catch up to Gordon and his stuff may play better in a long relief role.

Conclusion: Gordon has spot starter potential for the Astros in 2024 and that could be the way he breaks in with the club. The Astros are in the prime of competing for championships so Gordon may need to mold his role if he struggles at all to start 2024.

ETA: July 2024

 

Jaime Melendez, RHP (Double-A, 5’8/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	28.1	2.86	1.27	33.1%	13.6%
2021	AA	58.0	3.57	1.41	34.4%	12.6%
2022	AA	73.2	5.01	1.49	32.5%	15.6%
2023	AA	9.2	5.59	1.55	18.2%	15.9%

Overview: Melendez reached Double-A in his second professional season at just age 20 but has been stuck there the last two seasons. Now only 22 years old, Melendez has struggled to throw his pitches for strikes as his walk rate climbed to 15.9% this season. A smaller pitching prospect at just 5’8, he could be destined for a 2-inning role out of the bullpen.

Fastball: His best pitch is his mid-90s fastball which has hit higher. Melendez can throw his fastball with some sink inside to right-handed hitters. This pitch gets plenty of swing and miss or weak contact to be an above-average pitch.

Curveball: An 80-mph curve, Melendez throws this pitch well mixed with his slider to provide a different look.

Slider: His second-best offering is his mid-80s slider which could potentially end up being an above-average pitch.

Changeup: If Melendez can locate his changeup more, it could provide another strikeout pitch with his slider and curve. Command is the main issue with this pitch which could force him to the bullpen.

Biggest Concerns: Command and durability. Melendez has flashed the ability to miss bats and limit hits against, but the number of walks surrendered keeps him in trouble. Melendez missed most of the 2023 season due to an unspecified injury, so durability is an issue with the small righty.

Conclusion: Melendez looked to be a promising young pitcher for the Astros after his first two seasons, but the control never improved. In a system that seems to figure out most pitching prospects, the Astros have yet to have things click with Melendez.

ETA: August 2024

 

Andrew Taylor, RHP (Single-A, 6’5/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A	84.0	4.61	1.55	33.8%	11.5%

Overview: Taken 80^th overall in 2022, Taylor is a big-time strikeout pitcher. Only reaching Low-A in his first full season, Taylor struggled to limit baserunners. On the positive side, Taylor was able to do what he does best, strikeout hitters. 126 strikeouts in 84 innings, Taylor could easily switch to a high-leverage bullpen role. Taylor should still start in 2024 as he profiles as an inning-eating starter with the ability to rack up the strikeouts.

Fastball: The best pitch Taylor throws, his mid-90s fastball plays up because of the plus spin. It works as a two-seam type of fastball often coming back door against right-handed hitters leaving them frozen.

Curveball: The weakest pitch Taylor throws is his mid to high 70s curve. He doesn’t throw it often but if it develops Taylor could stick as a starter.

Slider: His third offering is a low 80s slider that he mixes in with his curve as a change of pace.

Changeup: His second-best offering is a low 80s changeup with good sink that gets a good amount of swing and misses.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Taylor saw his hits and walks allowed jump in his first season with the Astros. If he wants to continue as a starter, he’ll need to throw his secondaries for strikes.

Conclusion: Taylor threw 84 innings in his final collegiate season as well as his first professional season in Low-A. Oddly enough also struck out 126 batters at both levels, but the walks jumped from 27 to 43. Taylor has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter and the Astros will give him that chance in 2024.

ETA: September 2024

 

Los Angeles Angels

Chase Silseth, RHP (MLB, 6’0/217)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	AA	5.1	10.13	1.50	25.9%	3.7%
2022	MLB	83	2.28	0.95	34.4%/18.6%	8.4%/9.3%
2023	MLB	45.2	2.96	1.18	26.3%/25.3%	10.8%/11.8%

Overview: Silseth has thrown 81 MLB innings over the last two seasons for LA and should get a full season of work in 2024. Drafted in the 11^th round in the 2021 MLB Draft, Silseth moved quickly and debuted after just 88.1 minor league innings.

Fastball: Silseth throws a good fastball that averages 95 mph but has hit higher. He mixes in a sinker that lives around 94 mph to change the look of his fastball.

Curveball: Only thrown 2% of the time at the MLB level, Silseth doesn’t have a great feel for his curve.

Slider: His 2700+ spin slider was his second-best offering in 2023 and improved from his slider in 2022. Silseth saw this pitch hit for a .302 average in 2022 and drop way down to .163 in 2023 while throwing it 23.1% of the time.

Changeup: His most effective pitch in 2023, Silseth had a .137 batting average against when he threw his split change.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Silseth hasn’t replicated his minor league success in the majors as his walk and hit rates both jumped. Grading out with mostly average stuff, he may be a back-end inning guy with good strikeout potential.

Conclusion: After showing improvement from 2022 to 2023 in the Majors, Silseth should have a good chance in 2024 to solidify himself as an MLB starter. If the Angels roster looks extremely different next year as most expect, Silseth could see an uptick in innings.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Victor Mederos, RHP (MLB, 6’2/227)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A+	16	5.63	1.50	20.3%	12.2%
2023	MLB	92	5.67	1.48	23.9%/17.6%	10.4%/17.6%

Overview: One of the many Angels pitchers drafted in the last two years to make his MLB debut, Mederos made his debut as a reliever. Starting all 26 of his appearances in the minor leagues, Mederos should have the opportunity to pitch as a start in 2024.

Fastball: His best pitch lives in the upper 90s and has touch 99. Despite having a high walk rate, Mederos has thrown this pitch for a strike.

Curveball: His third offering is his curveball which lacks command and lives in the low 80s. The lack of consistency with this pitch and his changeup may be why Mederos is in the Angels bullpen.

Slider: His best secondary is an upper 80s slider that has the chance to be an above-average pitch. This pitch has good movement and in his short 3 MLB innings, Mederos didn’t give up a hit on this pitch.

Biggest Concerns: Command and relief risk. Mederos gave up 21 home runs in 92 innings at the Double-A level in 2023 while also walking 43 batters. The relief risk may have already taken form as the Angels used Mederos 3 times in 2023 as a one-inning reliever.

Conclusion: If Mederos returns to a starting pitcher role, he has good enough stuff to get guys out. The command is what we’ll be watching as he has deeper outings if the Angels give him that shot, starting in 2024 spring training.

 

Ben Joyce, RHP (MLB, 6’5/225)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	AA	13	2.08	1.15	35.1%	7%
2023	MLB	17.2	4.08	1.25	33.8%/20.8%	18.2%/18.8%

Overview: The flamethrower from Tennessee made headlines all year in college baseball when he hit 105 mph. Knowing he was a reliever, the Angels still drafted Joyce in the third round because of that plus fastball.

Fastball: A plus pitch that averages 100.9 mph, Joyce throws this pitch 79.7% of the time. There is no doubt this is the pitch for Joyce as he has a .207 MLB batting average against.

Slider: His only secondary offering, Joyce throws a high 80s slider to keep hitters guessing. This pitch is an average pitch but combined with a 100-mph fastball plays it up.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff and command. Joyce is a two-pitch pitcher and he throws his fastball most of the time. Joyce has had decent success so far to start his career. If he keeps pumping 100 mph and can develop his slider enough to keep hitters off balance, he’ll be used in important situations. Command has been an issue for Joyce which might keep him away from closer opportunities but is often used in late-inning situations.

Conclusion: Joyce has the heater that makes him a late-inning reliever right off the bat, but he needs to clean up his control. If the command can improve, Joyce may find himself as a closer for a long time at the MLB level.

 

Sam Bachman, RHP (MLB, 6’1/235)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A+	14.1	3.77	1.19	25.9%	6.9%
2022	AA	43.2	3.92	1.51	15.5%	13.0%
2023	MLB	26.1	5.81	1.33	24.6%/18.2%	16.9%/14.3%

Overview: Drafted 9^th overall in 2021, Bachman has yet to live up to that selection. A two-pitch plus offering between his sinker and his slider, Bachman throws those two pitches 98.4 percent of the time. The lack of third-pitch development shut the door on Bachman becoming an MLB starter.

Fastball: Bachman has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and has touched over 100. Bachman’s fastball didn’t fool MLB hitters as he gave up 7 hits on 23 plate appearances with just two strikeouts when throwing it.

Slider: The best pitch for Bachman is his slider and it has been plus at the MLB level. 11 strikeouts and a .213 batting average against are excellent numbers for a two-pitch pitcher.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Even as a reliever in short outings, Bachman continues to walk batters at a high rate. He can pitch in the back of the bullpen with Ben Joyce, but both need to issue a lot fewer walks to be trusted in those roles.

Conclusion: Bachman, like Joyce, is a true two-pitch reliever. While he doesn’t hit 105 as Joyce has, Bachman has hit 102 and his slider is a better secondary offering. Bachman may end up in the closer role with Joyce as a set-up man.

 

Jack Kochanowicz, RHP (AA, 6’7/228)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	83.1	6.91	1.64	19%	9.1%
2022	AA	57.2	4.99	1.30	21.4%	7.3%
2023	AAA	94	5.27	1.36	17%	6.1%

Overview: A huge presence on the mound standing 6 foot 7, Kochanowicz has a repeatable delivery with impressive command. Kochanowicz looked to be having his breakout with Low-A Tri-City to start 2023 where he put up a 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with only 3 walks allowed. After a promotion to Double-A the breakout season was put on hold as he allowed more than one hit per inning and only struck out 55 hitters in 70.1 innings.

Fastball: A heater that sits in the mid-90s and can touch higher with good two-seam action. An average to above average pitch, this is the best offering Kochanowicz has.

Slider: An average secondary offering is his low 80s slider which is more of a curveball at times.

Changeup: His best secondary offering is his mid-80s changeup that has good break to it. The command is there for most of his pitches and if he can throw this off the plate a bit more he may get more strikeouts.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Kochanowicz lacks true strikeout pitches as he’s only tallied 195 in his 235 minor league innings.

Conclusion: Kochanowicz is a back-end starter who can eat innings with his current stuff. With the low walk rate and average stuff, he may need to work off the plate a little more to find consistent success.

 

Oakland Athletics

Mason Miller, RHP (MLB, 6’5/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	6	1.50	1.17	37.5%	12.5%
2022	AAA	14	3.86	0.79	50%	6%
2023	MLB	19.1	1.86	0.67	50%/27.3%	7.1%/11.5%

Overview: Miller is the top pitching prospect for the A’s and has elite stuff that could give them a frontline starter of the future. Miller has a plus fastball that reaches triple digits and a slider that often gets swings and misses.

Fastball: His best offering, Miller showcased his plus fastball in his brief MLB stint in 2023. His fastball misses bats and blows by Major League hitters for a great strikeout pitch.

Slider: His second-best pitch is a slider that flashes plus. He kept the Mariners off balance with it, throwing 7 no-hit innings with 6 strikeouts which mostly mixed his plus fastball with his slider.

Changeup: His third offering that will need to improve to avoid a relief role is his high 80s changeup. He only threw it 4.9% of the time in the Majors because of the lack of command.

Biggest Concerns: Durability and command. Miller was off to a great start in 2023 after throwing just 39.1 minor league innings. 16 walks in his 33.1 innings at the Major League level isn’t going to cut it if Miller wants to stick as a starter.

Conclusion: Miller has a clear path in the majors for the future, the role is to be determined but the A’s will let him start considering the lack of competition. If Miller can develop his changeup to throw with consistency, he could reach his front-of-the-rotation potential.

ETA: Opening Day

 

Joe Boyle, RHP (Double-A, 6’7/240)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	19.2	2.29	1.17	50.6%	17.3%
2022	AA	100.2	2.86	1.29	36.5%	20%
2023	MLB	117.1	3.84	1.50	32.2%/25%	17.8%/8.3%

Overview: Joe Boyle has been one of the most interesting pitching prospects who never had a ton of buzz. A high 90s fastball that touches triple digits consistently, Boyle limits baserunners and strikes them out while doing it. In 2022, Boyle started the year in High-A where he only allowed 25 hits in 74.2 innings. Almost a walk per inning in the minor leagues, Boyle looked to be headed for a bullpen role but a trade to the A’s allowed him to debut as a starter.

Fastball: His best pitch is a high 90s fastball that sits 98-99 mph. Command is the issue with all his pitches and Boyle throws 100 percent every fastball which sometimes causes him to miss his spots.

Curveball: Only thrown 9.6% of the time at the MLB level, Boyle needs to be more consistent with the shape and command of his curve for it to be an above-average pitch.

Slider: Boyle drops in a nasty slider at 85-87 mph that plays well with his 98-99 mph fastball. This pitch lacks consistency as we saw in his short MLB debut.

Biggest Concerns: Command. It’s no secret that Boyle has command issues with 191 walks in 237.2 minor league innings. Boyle only walked 5 batters in his 16 MLB innings to start his career, which is cut in more than half of what his minor league walk percentage has been.

Conclusion: Boyle should get the opportunity to throw a full season at the MLB level as a starter.  In his two final starts, Boyle went 6 and 7 innings only walking 3 total batters. The Athletics should be excited about Boyle in 2024.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Joey Estes, RHP (MLB, 6’2/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	10	8.10	1.70	17.4%	15.2%
2021	A	99	2.91	0.96	32.1%	7.3%
2022	A+	91	4.55	1.27	23.8%	7.8%
2023	MLB	137	3.74	1.16	22.8%/14.9%	7.5%/4.3%

Overview: Another trade piece the A’s acquired, Estes broke out in 2021 for the Braves striking out 127 in 99 innings. Coming over as a piece in the Matt Olson trade, Estes moved quickly in 2023 after not pitching above High-A previously.

Fastball: His best pitch is a mid-90s fastball that has gained some velocity as he has matured. A strike thrower, Estes locates his fastball well and uses it to get ahead.

Slider: His best secondary offering is his mid-80s slider which has nasty movement. This pitch plays well with his fastball to accumulate his swing and misses.

Changeup: His third below-average offering is a change of pace changeup that he throws in the mid-80s. He’ll need to develop some more movement on this pitch for it to be an average offering against MLB hitters.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Estes has average stuff for a starter and while it may not equate to high strikeouts, he can provide quality innings at the back of a rotation. The changeup will need to improve for Estes to stick around as a consistent starter.

Conclusion: Estes can pitch in the back end of the A’s rotation and should see a full season of MLB innings with Mason Miller and Joe Boyle.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP (Double-A, 6’4/220)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	8.0	0.00	1.00	24.2%	3%
2023	AA	61.0	6.05	1.30	17.8%	4.7%

Overview: Acquired for Matt Chapman, Hoglund was drafted by the Blue Jays 19^th overall in 2021 despite recovering from Tommy John. Hoglund looked to be the first-round pitching prospect the Jays thought as he threw 8 scoreless innings for Oakland between rookie ball and Low-A Stockton. Hoglund has elite control with a sub-5 % walk rate in his minor league career despite struggling in 2023 otherwise.

Fastball: A mid-90s fastball in college was the best offering Hoglund had but after Tommy John, it was in the low 90s. Hoglund gave up a lot of hard contact on this pitch in 2023 and will hopefully regain his velocity in 2024.

Curveball: A pitch that I haven’t seen Hoglund throw that often for a strikeout pitch, it has a different look that keeps hitters thinking.

Slider: Now his best pitch, his slider has good break that dives in against lefties, and he gets a good amount of swing and misses on this pitch.

Changeup: His second best offering which could end up being his best, is his changeup which has good sink to it at 83 mph. Sometimes Hoglund doesn’t get as much movement as he’d like but when he mixes this pitch with his fastball, he often sees success.

Biggest Concerns: Recovery, durability, and stuff. Hoglund saw a very inflated ERA in 2023 after struggling in Low-A for most of the year. Hoglund was hit hard in Low-A giving up 9 home runs in 43.1 innings and 56 hits total. He could still be ramping back up from Tommy John as he’s shown the ability to get advanced hitters out.

Conclusion: Hoglund ended the year at Double-A, and he figures to start 2024 there. With 3 promising pitching prospects already breaking in at the MLB level, the A’s could want to see how Hoglund fares sooner rather than later.

ETA: July 2024

 

Brady Basso, LHP (Double-A, 6’2/213)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	25.2	1.75	1.09	35.8%	7.5%
2021	A+	21	4.71	1.33	28.3%	7.6%
2023	AA	63.1	2.42	0.98	26.3%	6.2%

Overview: One of the older pitching prospects for the A’s, Basso is 26 but reached Double-A in 2023. Given his age, Basso should get a shot in spring training to compete for a starting spot in the 2024 Oakland rotation.

Fastball: A low to mid-90s fastball, Basso throws it for a strike often as he does with most of his pitches. An average offering, he locates it well to get a strike when needed. He throws this fastball mixed in with a cut fastball that has the potential to be an above-average pitch at times.

Curveball: His best offering, Basso has a big mis 70s curve that misses a lot of bats. This pitch will be crucial to getting advanced hitters out as he’s gotten a ton of success so far with that pitch.

Changeup: His weakest offering, Basso doesn’t throw it often but he uses it as a different look every now and then.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Basso might not have major strikeout stuff, but he can certainly get outs with his average to above-average 4-pitch mix. 128 strikeouts in his 110 minor league innings is a great sign but we’ll need to see the stuff get more advanced hitters in 2023.

Conclusion: Still only 110 innings into his professional career, the A’s could choose to start Basso at Triple-A in 2024. Basso was coming off Tommy John so we may see the A’s let him loose a little bit in 2023. The A’s most likely won’t be competing again in 2024 so these young pitchers should all get a shot to see what they can do at the MLB level.

ETA: May 2024

 

Seattle Mariners

Emerson Hancock, RHP (MLB, 6’4/213)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	AA	44.2	2.62	1.03	24%	9.5%
2022	AA	98.1	3.75	1.20	22.3%	9.2%
2023	MLB	98.0	4.32	1.23	26%/12.2%	9.2%/6.1%

Overview: Drafted 6^th overall in 2020, Hancock was looking like a front-of-the-rotation pitcher. A shoulder injury has slowed him down and his stuff took a minor step back. Still a solid 4-pitch mix, Hancock needs his fastball velocity to creep back up to the upper 90s consistently.

Fastball: Hancock has a fastball that grades out as average now and sits in the mid-90s. More of a command over stuff fastball, Hancock locates it well. Good sinking action, Hancock keeps it down in the zone most of the time.

Slider: A solid upper 80s slider, Hancock gets weak contact on his slider. This has the chance to be an above-average pitch.

Changeup: His best pitch, Hancock throws a good changeup that fades away against left-handed hitters. He only threw it 12.9% of the time in his short MLB debut but the movement was there.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Hancock had good stuff before his shoulder injury but even then, he never racked up a ton of strikeouts. Hancock may lack value if he can’t put up high strikeout numbers with regression in stuff.

Conclusion: Drafted as a potential #2/#3 starter with plus command, Hancock lost some of his stuff and is trending towards more of a back-end starter. He should get a good look in 2024 spring training and throughout the year to see if he can succeed at the MLB level.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Taylor Dollard, RHP (Triple-A, 6’3/195)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A+	105	5.14	1.35	29%	5.2%
2022	AA	144	2.25	0.95	22.9%	5.4%
2023	AAA	8.1	7.56	1.44	22.2%	8.3%

Overview: Dollard broke out in 2022 where he threw to a 2.25 ERA at the Double-A level, only allowing 106 hits in 144 innings. Dollard displayed good command and decent strikeout numbers looking like a potential #3 starter. 2023 was not as kind to Dollard as he threw only 8.1 innings and ended up needing labrum surgery.

Fastball: An average low 90s fastball, Dollard commands it well to give him a successful pitch to get ahead of hitters.

Curveball: His curve is an offering in the low 70s that throws the hitters’ timing and eye level off. This pitch is good mixed in as Dollard doesn’t have a dominant pitch.

Slider: His best offering is his upper 70s/low 80s slider that he throws again is commanded well, giving him a pitch that he can do for strikes.

Changeup: A low 80s changeup has a chance to be an average pitch. This pitch gives him the ability to show a different speed while commanding it just as well as his other pitches.

Biggest Concerns: Injury. We’ll see how Dollard can bounce back in 2024 while recovering from his torn labrum. Hopefully, we see more of his 2022 season when he returns to the mound where he displayed excellent command.

Conclusion: Dollard displays the ability to command his pitches well and if the stuff doesn’t play in the majors he could end up as a long reliever. The trust in Dollard could be advantageous for risky situations when you need a strike thrower so Dollard should hold value for the Mariners in the future.

ETA: July 2024

 

Jimmy Joyce, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/210)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A+	22.1	3.22	1.25	31.6%	7.1%
2022	A+	121.0	5.58	1.37	25.9%	10%
2023	AA	70.0	2.57	1.10	28.9%	7%

Overview: A 16th-round pick in 2021, Joyce has exceeded expectations breaking out in 2023. Joyce started 16 games and pitched to a 2.57 ERA on the season between High-A and Double-A. His stuff won’t blow hitters away, but he had enough movement to strikeout 83 in 70 innings.

Fastball: A low 90s fastball, Joyce has a big leg kick and shields the ball until late in his delivery which adds to his success.

Curveball: His third pitch is a low 80s curve that has a lot of break to it. This adds a change of pace to the other offerings Joyce throws.

Changeup: His best pitch, Joyce has a low to mid-80s changeup that has the typical fade to it. This pitch pairs well with his fastball and gets him swings and misses.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff and command. Joyce has average stuff across the board, and it may play up in a shorter role. He could stick as a starter if he improves his command, but it seems he’s destined for a bullpen role at the big-league level.

Conclusion: Joyce may wind up in the bullpen due to a lack of plus offerings, but he could be a long reliever providing much-needed innings support over a long season.

ETA: August 2024

 

Prelander Berroa RHP (MLB, 5’11/170)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2017	ROK	17.2	5.60	2.09	17.8%	12.2%
2018	ROK	41.2	2.81	1.22	23.7%	10.4%
2019	ROK	50.2	5.86	1.44	24.6%	11.6%
2021	A	98.2	3.56	1.34	32.2%	12.6%
2022	AA	100.2	2.86	1.16	36.5%	15.3%
2023	MLB	65.1	2.89	1.29	36.6%	14.1%

 

Prelander Berroa strikes out the side in the 9th. pic.twitter.com/b6co7LVd51

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) August 23, 2023

 

Overview: Berroa has been an intriguing pitcher for a while now, but lack of command has always held him back. Forcing him to the bullpen Berroa has excelled with 2 plus pitches and a third average pitch.

Fastball: His best offering is his mid to high 90s fastball that has touched triple digits.

Slider: His slider is his strikeout pitch if he’s not blowing his fastball by guys. A low to mid-80s slider stuck out a lot of batters when he was starting in the minors.

Changeup: In his two innings in the Majors Berroa didn’t throw his changeup once and in a bullpen role I don’t expect to see it at all.

Biggest Concerns: Command. The lack of command forced him to the bullpen to make his MLB debut. If it holds up in shorter stints the Mariners will most likely keep him in the bullpen. If Berroa was on a bad team, we could see him get a shot as a starter but that is unlikely for the Mariners.

Conclusion: Berroa may be a high-leverage guy out of the bullpen for the Mariners with Andres Munoz. Berroa may have had something to do with the Mariners feeling okay trading Paul Sewald at the deadline last season. If he sticks in the bullpen, he can still provide some value.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Marcelo Perez, RHP (High-A, 5’10/180)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A+	74.2	3.38	1.15	25.1%	7.9%

 

Dominant start by Marcelo Perez. 6IP, 1H, 1R, 0BB, 6K, 79 pitches, 60 strikes. pic.twitter.com/bIvRN377Ac

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 30, 2023

 

Overview: Drafted in the 11^th round in 2022, Perez made his debut in 2023 at the High-A level. A smaller pitching prospect at 5’10, Perez may have some durability concerns. No dominant pitch that stands out, Perez may move to the bullpen.

Fastball: A low 90s fastball with good movement, Perez uses this pitch to break in toward right-handed hitters. This pitch goes well with his slider that breaks the opposite way with slightly less velocity.

Slider: His best pitch, Perez throws a mid-80s slider that misses a lot of bats for his go-to strikeout pitch.

Changeup: His third offering that is well behind his other two, Perez doesn’t use it often.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff and durability. Perez may not have the stuff to hold up as a starter, but he held up fine at High-A in 2023. Perez should start the 2024 season in Double-A and advanced competition should show us what role Perez is destined to fill.

Conclusion: Perez might be a reliever in the future but after a successful first full season, the Mariners may want to work on his third pitch and keep him starting. The fastball and slider are good enough to throw for 5-6 innings but he’ll need to develop that changeup as he climbs through the farm.

ETA: September 2024

 

Texas Rangers

Owen White, RHP (MLB, 6’3/199)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	35.1	3.06	1.08	39.7%	8.5%
2022	AA	80.0	3.59	1.16	31.7%	7%
2023	MLB	108.2	4.22	1.35	17.2%	11.9%

Overview: White has been a top pitching prospect in the Rangers organization since being drafted in the second round. 2022 had White looking like he could be at the top of the Texas Rangers rotation for a while, but a lot of regression came in 2023.

Fastball: A solid offering with the chance to be above average, White has a low to mid-90s fastball with good two-seam action. White got a lot of swing-and-miss on this pitch in the minors.

Curveball: A solid pitch for White, he needs to keep his curve down in the zone more. When he did this, he was able to get some swing and miss.

Slider: The best pitch for White is his mid to high 80s slider with plus movement. This plays well with his curve showing more of a vertical break.

Changeup: His mid-80s changeup is the pitch that needs the most improvement. If he can command it more consistently, he’ll have a shot at 4 average to above-average pitches.

Biggest Concerns: Command and stuff. White struggled with his command in 2023, walking 55 in 108.2 innings. White has an above-average slider that is his strikeout pitch, but the lack of other plus offerings limits White to a #3 starter. A jump in his walk rate, combined with a strikeout rate that was cut in half from his previous two seasons led to a disappointing 2023 overall.

Conclusion: Likely a mid-rotation pitcher, White lacks the elite stuff to be a front-of-the-rotation pitcher right now. White will have a chance to win a starting rotation spot during spring training in 2024.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Jack Leiter, RHP (Triple-A, 6’1/205)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	AA	92.2	5.54	1.55	25.6%	13.2%
2023	MLB	85.0	5.19	1.46	30.7%	13.2%

Overview: One of the most hyped pitchers in recent years, Leiter has not lived up to the hype. The Rangers were aggressive by assigning Leiter to Double-A after being drafted. Leiter was hurt by lack of command and hurt by the long ball. Leiter has a plus pitch with his slider and a fastball and curve that flash plus as well.

Fastball: His best pitch in college, Leiter hasn’t found the same success with it in the pros. The movement and velocity were down from what we saw at Vanderbilt, but he still gets plenty of swings and misses on this above-average pitch.

Curveball: Another pitch we saw Leiter dominate with in college was his power curve. This pitch has yet to translate to a plus pitch in the pros but still flashes dominance.

Slider: His second-best offering to his fastball, Leiter throws a good breaking slider with plus velocity. This pitch and his fastball still have the potential to live as plus pitches and rack up the strikeouts.

Changeup: His weakest pith is his mid-80s changeup which he doesn’t throw often. He’ll need to improve the command and shape of this pitch more consistently.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Leiter has struggled mightily with the command of his pitches. The fastball hasn’t played at times as well as it did it college for Leiter. No in-depth analysis is needed to know that Leiter needs to cut down on the walks or he won’t replicate his college dominance.

Conclusion: The stuff is there for Leiter to succeed and at times Leiter has looked like the pitcher we saw in college. Both seasons ended with ugly ERA numbers for Leiter, but the walks put him in a tough position to succeed.

ETA: June 2024

 

Josh Stephan, RHP (Double-A, 6’3/185)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	40.0	5.18	1.28	29.1%	9.3%
2022	A+	103.1	3.14	1.11	27.3%	7.3%
2023	AA	66.2	2.30	0.84	30.8%	5.1%

Overview: Stephan has steadily improved each of his professional seasons with 3 solid offerings and command. More of a finesse pitcher, Stephan misses bats and leaves hitters frozen with his above-average slider.

Fastball: A low 90s fastball, Stephan throws it with some sink

Slider: Stephan uses this above-average low to mid-80s slider as his strikeout pitch. It has good break and gets a lot of right-handed hitters to swing and miss.

Changeup: An average to above average offering, Stephan mixes in a changeup with his slider to keep hitters guessing. This pitch is used a lot to set up hitters for a strikeout on his slider.

Biggest Concerns: Secondary stuff. Stephan has a good feel for all 3 of his pitches. Right now, his pitches all show average to above average with his slider showing a chance to be a true strikeout pitch.

Conclusion: Above-average command and the ability to miss bats have given Stephan a low whip in each of his 3 professional seasons. Stephan has an athletic build and smooth delivery that is very low effort. Stephan has the potential to be a #3 starter and will face a real test in 2024 starting at the Double-A level.

ETA: August 2024

 

Kumar Rocker, RHP (High-A, 6’5/245)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A+	28.0	3.86	1.00	37.8%	6.3%

Overview: Like Leiter, Rocker was one of the most hyped pitching prospects in recent years. After failing to sign with the Mets due to potential arm issues, Rocker signed with the Rangers the next year and had Tommy John after just 28 innings with High-A Hickory. Unlike Leiter, Rocker looked to be living up to his potential with 42 strikeouts in 28 innings. Every start Rocker had for Hickory looked to be too much for that level of competition. In the first start of 2023, Rocker struck out 8 in 5 innings with most swing and misses coming on his slider.

Fastball: One of his three plus pitches, Rocker showed a great feel in High-A for his fastball and blew it by the younger competition. This pitch has great two-seam action that generates plenty of swing and miss.

Curveball: An above-average curve that flashes as a plus pitch, Rocker throws his curveball for a strike and gets a lot of swings and misses on this pitch in High-A as well.

Slider: His best offering, Rocker racked up the swing and miss with this pitch as well. More consistent than his curveball, his slider sits in the mid-80s with great horizontal break.

Changeup: His weakest pitch, Rocker doesn’t throw his changeup often as he has yet to need it. Rocker may never need this pitch to be successful as his other three offerings are all phenomenal.

Biggest Concerns: Durability. The Mets felt Rocker had enough of an arm issue not to sign him and in the short term they may have been correct. If Rocker can recover from Tommy John like a lot of pitchers have, we’ll see if he can be the same pitcher he once was.

Conclusion: Tough to predict how Rocker will bounce back, but he had Tommy John early enough in the 2023 season. Assuming it takes a year to recover, Rocker should be fully healthy by June 1^st. The Rangers will look to ease him back into pitching, but once he is a full go, Rocker could be pitching in Texas by August.

ETA: August 2024

 

Mitch Bratt, LHP (High-A, 6’1/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	6	0.00	0.67	54.2%	0%
2022	A	80.2	2.45	1.17	29.5%	8.3%
2023	A+	61.0	3.54	1.26	27.7%	6.4%

Overview: Most fans got their first Mitch Bratt experience in the 2023 World Baseball Classic against the stacked United States lineup. Bratt struggled in a start that was tough to watch, allowing 6 runs on 3 walks and 3 hits. Tough to expect much from a 19-year-old kid who hadn’t pitched above Low-A. Bratt went on to pitch for Texas at the High-A level in 2023 and continued his success against competition closer to his age. With a 3.54 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 61 innings, Bratt showed why he has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter as a crafty lefty.

Fastball: A low to mid-90s fastball, Bratt locates it well. An average pitch, Bratt uses it to get ahead of hitters.  It didn’t fool the star-studded USA lineup in the WBC.

Curveball: A good secondary, Bratt throws a mid-70s curve with big breaking action. This pitch has generated some swing-and-miss from lower-level hitters.

Slider: A low 80s slider, Bratt throws this average pitch for a strike while also accumulating some swing and miss. If this pitch can gain some velocity, he’s looking at an above-average secondary.

Changeup: Mixed reviews from his changeup, Bratt throws it for a strike, but it seems to grade out as an average pitch at best.

Biggest Concerns: Plus stuff. Bratt lacks a pitch that can blow away hitters, but he keeps them off balance with a good 4 pitch mix. Bratt has a good changeup that will need to at least flash plus at times for him to continue his success.

Conclusion: Bratt doesn’t turn 21 until July 2024 so time is on his side. In an at-bat in March 2023, Bratt faced young superstars Ethan Salas and Samuel Zavala in a complex game where he got Salas to ground weakly to the second baseman and Zavala to strikeout on an ugly swing. Double-A could show us what type of pitcher Bratt will be in the future.

ETA: September 2024

 

NL Central

By: Matt Heckman (@Heckman_matt115)

 

Gordon Graceffo RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	139.1	2.97	0.94	25.6%	5.1%	14.5%
2023	AAA	86.0	4.92	1.53	20.9%	11.6%	10.4%

Nasty changeup for the K.

Gordon Graceffo, the @Cardinals' No. 4 prospect, struck out 6 over 6 strong innings today.

The righty has 17 punchouts over 17 frames for @memphisredbirds this year. pic.twitter.com/mo5vG9MIXR

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 22, 2023

Overview: Last season, Graceffo was the talk of the dynasty community. He posted a 0.99 ERA across his first eight starts of 2022 and continued his strong season after a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate has come down since advancing to the upper levels of the Minor Leagues, but there is still enough in his profile to project a solid starting pitcher.

Four-Seamer: Graceffo does not overpower batters at the plate, but his strong control and ability to work all parts of the plate help his fastball perform well. He should probably stop throwing this pitch nearly 60% of the time though since it only projects to be an average offering.

Changeup: This is the one pitch that I want Graceffo to throw more. His changeup comes with incredible movement diving in on right-handed batters and disappearing against lefties. He does not have the best control over it yet, but when he locates it well it is a difficult pitch to hit.

Slider: Graceffo’s slider is a gyro slider that is his go-to pitch with two strikes. He generated a whiff rate of 38.9% on the pitch last year in Triple-A and is likely a plus offering thanks to his strong command of it.

Curveball: A big-breaker that does not generate a ton of whiffs. The issue is that as Graceffo comes straight over the top, hitters can easily pick up the different movements on his curveball. This prevents the pitch from playing as well as the movement suggests and likely lands this pitch close to average long-term.

Biggest Concern: Will Graceffo be able to generate whiffs with anything other than his slider? His curveball seems like the most likely avenue for this to happen but if not, Graceffo could see disappointing strikeout rates continue as he advances to the Major Leagues.

Conclusion: The on-paper results from 2023 were disappointing. Even if you look past his ERA, you would hope for a higher strikeout rate from a pitcher you are targeting in dynasty leagues. That being said, his excellent slider and deep arsenal create a floor that should translate into a solid Major League pitcher. He appears to be next in line for a spot in St. Louis’ suspect rotation.

ETA: May 2024

 

Michael McGreevy RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	144.1	3.99	1.25	199.8%	5.1%	9.4%
2023	AA/AAA	153.0	4.12	1.41	18.5%	5.7%	9.6%

 

Overview: There are few pitchers in the Minor Leagues that throw as many strikes as McGreevy. If you are looking to find somebody who pitches rather than throws, then McGreevy is your guy. The strikeout rates have never been high (and likely never will), but that does not mean he does not project to be a Major League starter. That being said he might be a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher.

Four-Seamer: His four-seam sits a tick or two faster than his sinker. He is throwing this pitch less and less which is for the best. He is a control artist and somebody who needs to pitch to contact. The sinker gives him the best chance to do this successfully unlike his below-average four-seam.

Changeup: McGreevy’s changeup comes with a lot of late life. The pitch dives away from left-handed batters (although lefties still hit .308 off of him last season). The movement is nice, but he needs to generate more whiffs for the pitch to be above-average.

Slider: This is his best pitch. The gyro slider is his best strikeout pitch and one he is comfortable throwing in any count. He averages around 85 mph on the pitch and profiles to be a slightly above-average offering.

Curveball: I have not been able to get a ton of looks at McGreevy’s curveball. He does not throw it much and he did not generate many whiffs on it. FanGraphs gave it a 50 FV, although from what I see this is based more on command than overall movement and potential.

Sinker: The inability to consistently keep the sinker down in the zone is what got McGreevy in trouble in 2023. Sinkers are supposed to keep the ball in the park, but McGreevy surrendered 1.14 HR/9 last season. He throws plenty of strikes with it, but sometimes the pitches are a little bit too hittable.

Biggest Concern: The lack of strikeouts projects to significantly impact McGreevy’s fantasy value. To maintain fantasy relevance, McGreevy will need to be elite at limiting hard contact. Keeping Major League batters off balance is not quite as easy as doing that to hitters in the Minor Leagues.

Conclusion: There are only a handful of true sinker ball pitchers who find long-term success at the Major League level. With no track record of strikeouts, he projects to be nothing more than a streaming option for fantasy players. Already in Triple-A, he will make his debut next season for St. Louis.

ETA: June 2024

 

Sem Robberse RHP (Double-A, 6′ 4″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	111.1	3.23	1.16	21.0%	7.4%	12.4%
2023	AA/AAA	124.0	4.28	1.35	24.1%	10.6%	14.4%

 

Overview: Rarely do we see pitchers signed out of the Netherlands, but that is exactly the story with Robberse. Signed by the Blue Jays at just 17 years old, Robberse looked great in 10 innings prior to the pandemic. He progressed slowly through the Minor Leagues before being traded from Toronto to St. Louis at this year’s deadline. His strikeout rate spiked this season and has the looks of somebody who is starting to put everything together.

Four-Seamer: Despite mediocre velocity, Robberse leans heavily on his fastball to attack opposing batters. The pitch sits in the lower 90s. His long arm action does not create as much extension as you would think although there remains enough physical projection from his 6’1″ frame to believe he could add velocity. Where things stand this is a below-average pitch.

Changeup: Although his changeup is not used a whole lot, he gets plenty of swings-and-misses off of it. The pitch dives down and away from lefties and sits in the upper 80s. This is a slightly above-average pitch that could take him to the next level if he develops more control over it.

Slider: Reports on the slider cite this as his best pitch. The pitch takes a gyro shape and sits around 87 mph. He generated a whiff rate of over 30% in Triple-A although there are reports that he can be inconsistent with the pitch’s location. This would help explain why the average exit velocity off of the pitch is over 92 mph.

Curveball: Although the curveball is not talked about as much as his slider, he had a good amount of success with the pitch in 2023. The pitch has more horizontal depth to it than some other curves, but this helps the pitch appear like some of his sliders. He got excellent whiff rates on it in Triple-A and this appears to be another plus secondary for Robberse.

Biggest Concern: Since being promoted to Double-A, Robberse has struggled to limit the long ball. You have to wonder if his lack of fastball velocity is the primary reason for this happening. If he cannot prevent home runs, he is going to continue posting high ERAs.

Conclusion: Robberse has three breaking balls that he can get whiffs with. The numbers have not always been pretty, but he has already made it to Triple-A and is only 22 years old. In an ideal world, the Cardinals will get Robberse to reduce his fastball usage and lean on those breaking balls. He is an underrated pitcher to keep on your radars for 2024.

ETA: May 2024

 

Tink Hence RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A	52.1	1.38	0.88	41.5%	7.3%	16.3%
2023	A+/AA	96.0	4.31	1.33	24.5%	8.4%	12.3%

Tink Hence, Wicked 85mph Slider. ? pic.twitter.com/AoaXcJbv3J

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 27, 2023

Overview: An electric first full season in 2022 officially put Hence toward the top of dynasty manager’s radars. A superb fastball/slider combination that was put on full display in the AFL last season only heightened the hype surrounding him. There have always been relief concerns surrounding his profile, but a career-high 96 innings in 2023 has dynasty managers excited despite disappointing on-field results.

Four-Seamer: Lanky, athletic, and a bit chaotic through his wind-up, Hence provides deception from the start. Add in a fastball that sits 96-98 on the gun with a ton of arm-side run and you get one of the best fastballs in the Minor Leagues. Hence can be effectively wild with it at times, but there are few fastballs that have as much potential as his.

Changeup: Developing a changeup is going to be the biggest test for Hence. He throws one now but does not have a lot of command on it. His changeup is only given a 30 grade by FanGraphs and there is clearly a lot to work with.

Curveball: Some people say that Hence throws both a slider and a curveball. Others have him throwing just one pitch. From watching him, this pitch takes on a slurve action. Sometimes it is more sliderish, other times more curveish. Regardless, the pitch comes with excellent movement and Hence controls it well. This is a plus-plus offering and one that will play well starting or out of the pen.

Biggest Concern: Hence is still only 21 years old but in his first two professional seasons he has thrown 52.1 and 96 innings pitched respectfully. Durability concerns along with his reliance on a two-pitch mix have always cast some concern of relief risk and those concerns remain prevalent today.

Conclusion: With how impressive his fastball and slider are, it is easy to dream about Hence’s potential. You would think a pitcher with his kind of stuff would generate more strikeouts than he has, making this an interesting point to watch in 2024. If everything clicks we could see Hence in St. Louis before the end of next season.

ETA: August 2024

 

Tekoah Roby RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	104.2	4.64	1.24	28.4%	7.9%	14.2%
2023	AA	58.1	4.63	1.20	28.9%	6.3%	15.7%

 

Overview: The former third-round pick has been one of the fastest risers since the 2023 Trade Deadline. Drafted by Texas, Roby put up solid strikeout-to-walk ratios his first two seasons leaning heavily on his curveball. Excellent control with a deep starter’s arsenal is the dream for every pitching prospect and Roby has a chance to be special.

Four-Seamer: Coming nearly right over the top, Roby gets the visual appearance of a late rise on batters causing many to be late. He sits in the mid-90s consistently touching as high as 98. Scouts rave about the spin on this pitch and it easily profiles to be a plus offering.

Changeup: His changeup dives in on right-handed batters and is an underrated pitch in his arsenal. He effectively keeps lefties off balance with it and appears to have a good feel for it. Roby considers this his fourth pitch, but it is effective nonetheless.

Slider: The slider is still a work in progress. The pitch has solid movement, but considering he just added it in the summer of 2022, he still has a ways to go. He throws it harder than his curveball but does not have the same kind of feel for it yet.

Curveball: With true 12-6 action, Roby has an excellent feel for the pitch. He will throw it in any count and batters consistently chase it. He sits around 78 most nights and is his most effective breaking ball.

Biggest Concern: Roby has only cleared 100 innings one time in his professional career. Although he has all of the looks of a starter on the mound, it is fair to wonder if his arm can hold up over the course of an entire season.

Conclusion: The upside is there for Roby to be a strong number two starter at the Major League level. A four-pitch mix with excellent control and command provides a floor that few other starting pitchers have. If he can remain healthy next season there is a strong chance we get to see Roby make his Major League debut.

ETA: August 2024

 

Lyon Richardson RHP (MLB, 6′ 2″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	A/AA/AAA	6.91	3.50	1.28	34.5%	13.1%	15.2%
2023	MLB Stats	18.2	8.64	1.92	14.8%	18.5%	6.3%

 

Overview: Richardson made his Major League debut this past season making four starts for Cincinnati. He struggled with an 8.64 ERA in 16.1 innings. Major League batters demolished his fastball making it clear that he will need to work on refining his breaking stuff if he ever wants to have sustained success at the Big-League level.

Four-Seamer: The velocity on Richardson’s fastball is nice to see. He consistently sits in the upper 90s and loves to work it up in the zone. The issue for him has been an inability to consistently locate the pitch. He leaves far too many out over the middle of the zone and Major League hitters did serious damage off of it last season.

Changeup: This is the pitch Richardson feels most comfortable throwing. Unlike most pitchers, he will throw this to both righties and lefties in just about any count. He gets nearly 15 inches of horizontal movement on the pitch helping fool hitters. This is his best pitch and an above-average one for sure.

Sinker: Richardson mixes in a sinker against right-handed batters to help keep the ball in the park. He throws it hard and relying on this more could help improve his numbers.

Curveball: In a small sample size, Richardson’s control of the curveball looked terrible. He left way too many out over the zone which was a similar issue to the Minor Leagues. The pitch is a decent strikeout pitch, but the mistakes outweigh the successes.

Biggest Concern: Will Richardson be able to reduce his reliance on the fastball? That could be the key to getting him back to his Minor League numbers. He also needs to improve his command if he wants to throw enough strikes to stick.

Conclusion: Fastball/changeup guys do not have a strong track record of working out at the Major League level. This combined with his suspect ability to throw strikes could land Richardson in the bullpen long-term. His high strikeout rates throughout the Minor Leagues put him in streamer territory entering 2024.

ETA: April 2024

 

Connor Phillips RHP (MLB, 6′ 2″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AA/AAA	105.0	3.86	1.41	33.3%	12.3%	12.6%
2023	MLB Stats	20.2	6.97	1.50	27.1%	13.5%	9.2%

MLB's No. 70 prospect Connor Phillips notches his first @Reds K on a 97.6 mph heater ? pic.twitter.com/lOqyPaiRIv

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 5, 2023

Overview: Another Reds prospect who debuted in 2023, Phillips had slightly better results than Richardson. The former Mariners’ prospect posted a 6.97 ERA in 20.2 innings although he was able to strikeout 27.1% of the batters he faced. Big velocity and a plus-breaking pitch offer an intriguing long-term outlook if Phillips can keep his control in check.

Four-Seamer: If you are facing Phillips, you know you are going to get a ton of fastballs. The pitch sits in the upper 90s with good IVB, so you cannot blame him too much for loving it. That being said, the usage is too high, and right-handed batters at the Major League level absolutely crushed it. The metrics of the pitch are good, but he needs to adjust his approach for his four-seam to have success against this tougher competition.

Slider: Phillips’ slider is a sweeper and it is a good one. He throws it between 83 and 85 mph with over 12 inches of sweep. He gets whiffs against both lefties and righties and can paint it over the corners with ease. This is a plus offering and one that could become even better as he matures.

Curveball: He uses the curveball almost exclusively on left-handed batters. He struggled at both the Major League level and in Triple-A to generate swings-and-misses with it and this looks like it will be a disappointing pitch compared to its 60 FV grade on FanGraphs.

Biggest Concern: Phillips is primarily a tw0-pitch pitcher. He mixes in an occasional curveball and has a changeup (which was not even mentioned here due to lack of use), but he is really just a fastball/slider guy. We have seen this work for Spencer Strider, but I am not sure putting Phillips in that category is fair to Strider.

Conclusion: Two plus offering is always an encouraging start. The velocity on the fastball is great, but he needs more than just his sweeper to generate whiffs. Phillips could find himself in a high-leverage bullpen role as early as 2024 if the Reds do not want to continue pushing him as a starter.

ETA: April 2024

 

Chase Petty RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 20)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	98.1	3.48	1.17	23.7%	7.7%	14.2%
2023	A+/AA	68.0	1.72	1.15	24.1%	5.5%	13.4%

 

Overview: The 26th overall pick from 2021 came on strong in his first full season with the Reds and 2023 was more of the same. Petty was seemingly on cruise control all season allowing more than two runs just twice across 18 starts. His three-pitch mix comes with excellent location and there is reason to believe he could see his strikeout rate jump up based on the pedigree of his stuff. There is a lot of talent here that could push Petty quickly through the Minor Leagues.

Four-Seamer: He has not maintained the same velocity he did in high school, but the results have been better. MLB.com refers to this as Petty becoming a more complete pitcher, but his fastball now sits 92-95. He has excellent control over this pitch and can locate it to all parts of the zone. Now, imagine if his velocity jumps back up to where it was when he was in high school.

Slider: The feel on this pitch can be inconsistent, but when he is on there are few sliders that are better. Some looks make this pitch look more like a gyro and others are more sweeper-esque. This could be intentional as Petty might be working two different sliders. This is a plus pitch with the potential for more if he can be more consistent with it.

Splitter: Although most sites have Petty’s third pitch listed as a changeup, the looks I have seen make it look more like a splitter. Sitting in the upper-80s, the pitch has a ton of vertical movement and appears to have replaced Petty’s changeup. He throws it primarily to lefties and this pitch has much more potential than his changeup.

Biggest Concern: So far, Petty has failed to post a strikeout rate that excites dynasty managers. The control is excellent and he has been able to limit hard contact, but to be a reliable fantasy asset, strikeouts are important. If they never come, this will limit Petty’s ceiling.

Conclusion: Petty has all of the tools necessary to be a reliable Major League starter. The control is excellent, he has developed a third pitch to expand his arsenal, and he has been extremely successful at keeping the ball in the yard. Right now, he projects as a back-end starter with the upside for much more. If everything clicks next season, there is no reason to believe we will not see him make his Major League debut.

ETA: September 2024

 

Julian Aguiar RHP (Double-A, 6′ 3″, 22)

[Table of career numbers year by year] Example:

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	96.1	3.46	1.21	27.6%	6.6%	12.8%
2023	A+/AA	125.0		1.10	26.8%	7.2%	13.6%

Julian Aguiar completes a dominant three pitch strikeout of Junior Caminero, one of the best hitting prospects in the minor leagues. #Reds pic.twitter.com/0bWuito0zk

— OnBaseMachine (@RedsFan_Brandon) July 27, 2023

Overview: Nobody blinked when the Reds took Aguiar in the 12th round of the 2021 draft. Since being drafted, he has looked like a dominant force on the mound. A strong reliance on two fastballs along with a solid arsenal of secondary offerings provide Aguiar with a deep pocket of offerings to choose from. A breakout 2023 campaign could be just the start of big things to come.

Four-Seamer: His four-seam can touch as high as 97 according to reports although his real money pitch is the sinker (more on that to come). His lower arm slot creates good rising action on the pitch which profiles as a plus offering long-term.

Curveball: The shape of Aguiar’s curveball is short of a 12-6, but it comes with a significant drop. He sits 76-82 with the pitch and effectively uses it to get whiffs against lefties. This profiles as an average pitch.

Slider: MLB.com stated that the development of his breaking pitches was the key to him taking the next step. Aguiar’s slider looked excellent this season. The pitch features sweep action but is not a true sweeper. He loses the feel of it occasionally, but this is his primary out-pitch for righties.

Changeup: Aguiar gets an impressive amount of drop on his changeup. This is more than just a fourth-pitch for Aguiar who controls the pitch well and can throw it to both lefties and righties.

Sinker: Aguiar’s sinker is the reason he is able to keep the ball on the ground so often. His ability to control the pitch toward the bottom of the zone is exactly what you want. He sits 92-94 with it getting good run in on right-handed batters as well.

Biggest Concern: Holding velocity on his fastball is the biggest question mark. Considering that Aguiar did not start pitching full-time until JuCo, there is reason to believe this will come with time.

Conclusion: There are more green flags than red when it comes to Aguiar. Deep arsenals with the ability to throw strikes are a rare combination Aguiar has already shown the ability to work deep into games and stay healthy for an entire season. He is a strong pick to continue breaking out in 2024 and make his Major League debut.

ETA: July 2024

 

Levi Stout RHP (MLB, 6′ 3″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AAA	82.1	6.23	1.66	15.1%	13.0%	10.7%
2023	MLB Stats	10.1	9.58	2.32	16.4%	14.5%	8.0%

 

Overview: The third prospect on this list who has already made his Major League debut. Stoudt’s went about as poorly as the other two did as he posted a 9.58 ERA in 10.1 innings of work. The control that caused issues for Stoudt in the Minor Leagues showed up in the Major Leagues as he walked 14.5% of batters he faced. The stuff looked underwhelming and it is fair to wonder if there is much potential in his profile.

Four-Seamer: Stoudt’s fastball gets over 16″ of IVB sitting around 94 mph. Despite this, he has struggled to generate much of any whiffs on the pitch against tougher competition. The pitch profiles to come out as below-average and get roughed up in his first taste against Major League hitters.

Curveball: A distant third pitch, Stoudt gets a lot of vertical drop through his curveball although he has not had much of any success with it. He threw 21 of them at the Major League level and did not generate a single whiff.

Slider: This is Stoudt’s best pitch and his most used secondary. He sits in the mid-80s throwing it in any count against right-handed batters. The slider tunnels nicely with his four-seam which allows the pitch to perform even better.

Changeup: He uses the changeup almost exclusively against lefties. He throws it between 81-84 with significant break down and away. The pitch could be a plus offering if he can command it enough to throw it to righties along with lefties.

Biggest Concern: The biggest concern is the inability to effectively locate pitches on the corners. Not only did Stoudt struggle with walks, but he also struggled to keep pitches out of the heart of the strike zone. This is not a recipe for success at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Despite having the pedigree of a third-round draft pick, there is not much upside from a fantasy perspective here. His fastball lacks the velocity or spin to be an impact pitch and he lacks the control of his secondaries for them to work effectively. He will likely make appearances throughout 2024, but should not be on fantasy radars.

ETA: May 2024

 

Ben Brown RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 6″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	104.0	3.37	1.17	34.3%	8.3%	15.6%
2023	AA/AAA	92.2	4.27	1.40	32.6%	14.3%	15.9%

#Cubs Ben Brown looked good again in AA.

5 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Season: 4 GS, 20 IP, 0.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 7.8% BB, 39% K

6'6 RHP w/ three 55+ offerings (FF, CU, SL) and solid CMD/CTL.

I just moved him inside my Top-150 and he could be Top-100 soon.pic.twitter.com/QHkD5hb4Nt

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) April 28, 2023

Overview: Ben Brown is a former 33rd-round draft pick by the Phillies that really did not jump onto dynasty manager’s radars until 2022. Injuries derailed much of his early career, but he finally seemed to get back on track. The Phillies traded him to the Cubs where he has done nothing but impress. He dominated Double-A for parts of two seasons with high strikeout numbers before making it to Triple-A. Seeing Brown in the Major Leagues next season feels inevitable.

Four-Seamer: Brown loves to throw his four-seam fastball and the velocity on it is great. He touches as high as 98 with it and sits around 97 for the first few innings before the velocity tapers off a bit. He overthrows the pitch at times leaving it over the middle which can get him in trouble. The metrics on the pitch are excellent, the only thing left is to refine the control on it.

Slider: Brown throws two different variations on his slider. The sweeper variation is newer and one that Brown struggles to throw for strikes. His gyro is more effective and works better against lefties. The gyro part is a plus pitch while the sweeper has plus potential but needs some work.

Changeup: The changeup is not a pitch Brown throws often and in fact, it is a pitch he did not throw the entire final month of the season. While in Triple-A, he only threw the pitch in the zone 23.5% of the time which is not what you are looking for.

Cutter: Every now and then, Brown mixes in a cutter. He had success with this pitch in Triple-A last season although it is another one where the control could use improvements. He averages 88 mph on the pitch which helps keep batters off both his four-seam and slider.

Biggest Concern: Brown’s walk rate skyrocketed once he got to Triple-A. His tall 6’6″ stature and lanky delivery create some concern over his ability to consistently repeat his motion and throw enough strikes.

Conclusion: Brown fits the mold of everything to look for in a pitching prospect. High strikeout rates, good velocity, impressive movement, and a variation of secondary offerings to keep hitters off balance. The control issues are a major concern as Brown approaches the Major Leagues but he has the talent to be a strong fantasy asset. He is already on the 40-man roster so we will see him early on next season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Caleb Kilian RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 26)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AAA	120.1	4.56	1.32	18.6%	7.0%	9.2%
2023	MLB Stats	5.1	16.88	2.81	15.2%	6.1%	7.6%

 

Overview: A high-profile prospect who came to the Cubs in the Kris Bryant trade, Kilian has never been able to put things together in Chicago. His control, which was once elite in the lower levels, has taken a massive step backward against tougher competition and he has struggled to look like a Major League pitcher in two separate stints. None of Kilian’s three different fastball variations have worked against Major League batters and a shift to the bullpen might be necessary.

Four-Seamer: Kilian’s extension helps his four-seam fastball play up beyond its 94 mph average velocity. He likes to use this pitch down in the zone although Major League hitters did significant damage off it in 2023.

Curveball: His curve is primarily used against left-handed hitters sitting in the upper-70s. He gets significant vertical drop on the pitch although he does not get a ton of whiffs on it. This pitch is not a plus pitch, but rather somewhere around average.

Slider: Kilian’s slider/sweeper is more of a work in progress. He does not get as much sweep on it as some others do, but he did show a willingness to rely on it more as the Minor League season went along. This pitch profiles to be close to average.

Fastball Variations: He also throws both a sinker and a cutter. The sinker is thrown as hard as his four-seam fastball and shows a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground. This could be a strong offering for him. The cutter is used primarily against lefties sitting around 88 mph.

Biggest Concern: The lack of a put-away pitch is what scares me the most. Kilian is working to develop his sweeper, but without it, he relies heavily on fastballs that Major League hitters have already proven they can do damage on.

Conclusion: The deep arsenal here is enough to warrant intrigue. However, without the secondaries to generate whiffs, Kilian’s fantasy ceiling and real-life ceiling are capped. The Cubs will undoubtedly give him another chance in 2024 and the biggest thing fantasy managers should watch for is the development of his sweeper.

ETA: April 2024

 

Cade Horton RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	DNP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	A/A+/AA	88.1	2.65	1.00	33.5%	7.7%	17.5%

Cubs RHP prospect Cade Horton has solidied himself as one of the best arms in the Minors. Fantastic Double-A debut.

4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K–56 P/41 strikes

26 FB: 95-97 mph: 10 CSW
18 SL: 83-86 mph: 9 CSW
8 CH: 85-88 mph: 1 CSW
4 CB: 84-86 mph: 2 CSW
?: @smokiesbaseball pic.twitter.com/wpzWaQxu7f

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) August 3, 2023

Overview: To say that Horton dominated his first professional season would be an understatement. There is no second guessing why the Cubs selected Horton seventh overall as he looked untouchable at three different levels of the Minor Leagues. When you factor in that Horton did not even really start focusing solely on baseball until he was drafted, there is reason to believe he has the chance to keep getting better and better.

Four-Seamer: With excellent control and velocity, this is a plus pitch. He can locate it to all areas of the zone and blows it right past hitters. He has shown an ability to maintain his velocity through starts and should continue to find success with this pitch as he advances through the Minor Leagues.

Curveball: The curveball is not something Horton throws very often. According to FanGraphs, opposing batters have struggled to hit the pitch, but I was not able to find very many looks at it. The pitch sits in the mid-80s and is graded at a FV of 55.

Slider: This is Horton’s money pitch. He will throw it in any count, to any batter, in any location. He has excellent feel for the gyro slider which consistently sits around 86 mph. This is a plus offering and a primary reason why he posted such a high strikeout rate in his first season.

Changeup: The changeup looked solid from the looks I got. he sat between 86-88 with it and got good downward sink and cut on the pitch. MLB.com writes that Horton has struggled to throw the pitch for strikes although I believe the pitch looked to have plus potential.

Biggest Concern: Horton has already had Tommy John surgery once and his 88.1 innings pitched was a career high both professionally and collegiately. We still have to see how his arm and stuff holds up over a full starter’s workload.

Conclusion: The stuff in Horton’s arsenal puts him in consideration for the best pitching prospect in baseball. He has exceptional control of four pitches with excellent metrics to back them up. Considering how aggressive Chicago was with promoting him throughout the Minor Leagues last season, we could see him up next year. If this is the case, he needs to be added by fantasy managers based on upside alone. Durability is the only question mark left after just one season of professional ball.

ETA: August 2024

 

Joradn Wicks LHP (MLB, 6′ 3″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AA/AAA	91.1	3.55	1.17	26.5%	8.6%	13.2%
2023	MLB Stats	34.2	4.41	1.27	16.3%	7.5%	9.9%

 

Overview: We got a chance to see Wicks find success at the Major League level in 2023. The young lefty made seven starts for the Cubs with a solid 4.41 ERA. As with most soft-tossing lefties, his strikeout rate has dipped since reaching Triple-A, but his strong command and control provide a stable floor for a starting pitcher. He profiles as a back-end starter with streaming potential.

Four-Seamer: The four-seam was not Wicks’ friend in his Major League debut. He showed poor command of the pitch leaving 92 mph over the heart of the zone far too frequently. This profiles as a below-average pitch and one I would want Wicks to drop completely if I had him on my dynasty team.

Curveball: He does not throw the curveball much, but found good success with it last season. He gets good movement on it to attack right-handed batters. This looks like it could be a plus offering if he can gain more of a consistent feel for it.

Slider: His slider sits a few mph faster than his curveball. Although FanGraphs grades this as an above-average pitch, the control on it in his first Major League stint looked shaky. The pitch gets flat at times and hangs over the middle of the zone. I think this is closer to average at its best.

Changeup: The whippy arm action that Wicks gets on his changeup helps create deception. He only throws it about 81 mph, but it feels like it is coming in harder. This is the pitch he has most control over and that he is most comfortable throwing in any count. This is a plus pitch even if it is his only one.

Fastball Variations: The cutter and sinker are the two pitches I would want Wicks to throw more. His sinker showed an effectiveness in keeping the ball on the ground and he looked to control it well. The cutter could use some work, but it has a better chance to keep batters off balance than his low-velocity four-seamer.

Biggest Concern: The hardest pitch that Wicks throws averages 92.1 mph. We have already seen his strikeout rate dip to 16.3% at the Major League level which speaks to his lack of upside as a fantasy starter.

Conclusion: Wicks is the perfect streaming option for fantasy managers in 2024. If he is facing a team that struggles against lefties or to hit lower velocity, he could be a valuable add. He has shown the ability to work deep into games and an increased reliance on his curveball could help him add more value. He is not somebody worth drafting, but certainly a name fantasy players should know.

ETA: April 2024

 

Kohl Franklin RHP (Double-A, 6′ 4″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	69.1	6.88	1.63	23.1%	12.7%	13.8%
2023	A+/AA	105.0	5.40	1.46	24.9%	10.8%	15.2%

 

Overview: After missing the entire 2021 season due to injury and struggling throughout 2022, Franklin finally seems to be back on track. He has tweaked his slider while increasing his fastball velocity to create an intriguing profile. The numbers after his Double-A promotion do not scream potential, but there is a lot to like once you dig deeper.

Four-Seamer: The fastball projection is perhaps the most exciting part of Franklin’s profile. His four-seam sits 95/96 for the most part, but he has shown flashes of getting up to triple-digits at times. The pitch has plenty of arm-side run and profiles as a plus offering.

Curveball: This is a big bender with 12:6 action. His arm motion is consistent with that of his fastball, but then the slow breaker drops out of the zone getting plenty of whiffs. This is my favorite breaking pitch of Franklin’s.

Slider: Franklin’s slider is an average pitch on its best days. The pitch gets flat at times and is not one that he has constant control over.

Changeup: This is what many believe to be his best secondary offering. This pitch is extremely effective at keeping lefties off balance and is graded a 60 FV by FanGraphs.

Biggest Concern: Franklin got off to a fast start this past season, but struggled down the stretch. He has never thrown more than 105 innings in a season and you have to wonder if his stuff is better in short spurts rather than in a starter’s role.

Conclusion: Franklin is still a work in progress. However, changes to his wind-up, his slider, and increased velocity on his fastball create a lot to look forward to in 2024. There is already a solid base here and if Franklin can develop consistency, we could see him breakout next season. There is more here than meets the eye and we could see him move fast next season.

ETA: August 2024

 

Jared Jones RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 1″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	122.2	4.62	1.35	26.7%	9.6%	13.4%
2023	AA/AAA	126.1	3.85	1.23	27.6%	9.5%	14.7%

Jared Jones (@Pirates' No. 3 prospect) tossed a ? for the @indyindians:

6 IP
1 H
0 R
1 BB
8 K pic.twitter.com/RG9fWJUoyv

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 16, 2023

Overview: The ball explodes out of Jones’s hand as his short arm action whips through the zone and attacks batters. Meanwhile, his glove hand extends out toward the hitter which is undoubtedly a distraction. The former second-round pick has put up strong numbers throughout the Minor Leagues and is on pace to debut in 2024. His strikeout numbers appear sustainable and there is reason to be excited about this Pirates’ pitching prospect.

Four-Seamer: Although his four-seam does not have as much IVB as other prospects, the pitch comes with excellent velocity and arm-side run. As mentioned before, the ball appears to explode out of his hands and eats right-handed batters alive. This is a plus offering and a solid foundation for the rest of his arsenal.

Curveball: The curveball is not Jones’ most consistent pitch, but it is one that he relies on to attack left-handed batters. The pitch tunnels nicely with his slider and adds extra vertical drop at the end. This is an average pitch although it could improve with more consistency.

Slider: This is the out pitch for Jones. Sitting around 89 mph, the pitch takes on a gyro shape over a sweeper shape. He has excellent control of the pitch keeping it on the corners and generates plenty of swings-and-misses with it. This is a plus offering for Jones.

Changeup: An underrated pitch in Jones’ arsenal that could become a plus offering. Jones gets a ton of sink and movement on the pitch making it extremely difficult for lefties to hit. However, unlike his slider, he does not have the best command over it which can lead to some mistakes.

Biggest Concern: Consistent control. The stuff is there for Jones to be a 2/3 starter for the Pirates. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout the Minor Leagues and he walked at least four batters in four games last season. This will need to improve at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Jones is the most Major League-ready arm in Pittsburgh’s system and has the potential to be an impact pitcher from a fantasy perspective. His fastball/slider combination is strong and his other secondaries have potential for improvement. This is somebody to keep on your radars during draft season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Mike Burrows RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 1″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA/AAA	94.1	4.01	1.21	28.1%	7.9%	12.8%
2023	AAA	6.2	2.70	0.90	12.0%	8.0%	8.7%

 

Overview: Entering 2023, there was a decent amount of hype surrounding Burrows. He had moved slowly and steadily through Pittsburgh’s system since being drafted back in 2018 and was coming off back-to-back solid seasons. His Stuff+ graded strongly amongst Triple-A pitchers early this season before Tommy John’s surgery ended his season after just two starts.

Four-Seamer: The IVB is what instantly sticks out on this pitch. With over 20″ of it and strong over-the-top extension, Burrows’ fastball has all the looks of a plus pitch. He uses it a lot(sometimes too much), but it is an excellent starting point for his repertoire.

Curveball: The big breaker is the go-to out pitch against lefties. Sitting at 80 mph, the speed and spin on the pitch help it to play up and pair nicely with his slider which he has started to rely on more. This profiles as an above-average pitch.

Slider: In contrast to the curve, this is how Burrows likes to attack righties. The pitch does not have as much movement as the curve, but it still profiles as a fringe-plus offering. He needs to work on commanding it a little bit better and keeping it down in the zone.

Changeup: One thing that the scouts over at FanGraphs were really excited about was his changeup. The usage was going up, and his whiff rate was strong. Sitting around 87 with a ton of both vertical and horizontal break, this is another plus offering and a strong tool to keep lefties off balance.

Biggest Concern: Consistent control. The stuff is there for Jones to be a 2/3 starter for the Pirates. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout the Minor Leagues and he walked at least four batters in four games last season. This will need to improve at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Jones is the most Major League-ready arm in Pittsburgh’s system and has the potential to be an impact pitcher from a fantasy perspective. His fastball/slider combination is strong and his other secondaries have potential for improvement. This is somebody to keep on your radars during draft season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Sean Sullivan RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	75.0	4.68	1.36	25.8%	8.3%	11.6%
2023	AA	113.2	3.88	1.27	20.4%	8.0%	9.6%

 

Overview: The eighth-round selection from 2021 is proving that he is capable of handling a starter’s workload. Across his final eight appearances in 2023, Sullivan averaged over 5.5 innings. He is not the flashiest pitching prospect, but improving control with a solid four-pitch mix could help him take on responsibilities as a back-end starter.

Four-Seamer: From what I have read, Sullivan’s four-seamer sits in the low-90s. FanGraphs has the pitch graded as a 50 FV most of which I believe to stem from his control. His lower arm slot should help give the pitch a rising feel although I am not sure how effective it will be at this velocity.

Slider: FanGraphs likes Sullivan’s slider giving it a 55 FV. They claim the pitch sits in the low 80s with sweeping action. This appears to be his go-to pitch once he gets to two strikes.

Changeup: This appears to be Sullivan’s best pitch visually. His fast arm motion helps create deception on a pitch that routinely sits in the lower-80s. He gets good cut in on right-handed batters and appears to have strong control over this.

Biggest Concern: His unique arm slot and rushed windup could create some issues for Sullivan’s control. He managed to lower his walk rate from 2022 to 2023, but I am skeptical he will be able to sustain these improvements.

Conclusion: A unique delivery and four-pitch mix creates some level of intrigue when it comes to his profile. However, without a true out pitch or any overwhelming pitches, his likely role will be as a swingman.

ETA: September 2024

 

Paul Skenes RHP (Double-A, 6′ 6″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	DNP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	CPX/A/AA	6.2	5.40	1.05	35.7%	7.1%	16.5%

Paul Skenes' Stuff from Tonight. pic.twitter.com/HzBaOD0tIn

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 16, 2023

Overview: Everybody knows who Skenes is. If you somehow, he was the number one overall pick from this past year’s draft. Those around baseball have crowned him the best draft pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. Skenes was dominant en route to winning a National Championship at LSU and made it all of the way to Double-A already. Coming out of college, it is likely Skenes will continue to move quickly and could become an ace in Pittsburgh.

Four-Seamer: Nobody scoffs at the velocity of his four-seam fastball. This pitch routinely sits around 97 mph and can break triple-digits at times. The issue that people have is the IVB. In the one start we were able to get data from, he averaged just 11″ on this pitch which is not typically ideal for most pitchers. That said, his command on the pitch is excellent and the concern should not be blown out of proportion, this is still a plus pitch.

Curveball: Skenes originally had two different types of sliders, but he has turned the gyro into a curveball. You can see how this pitch used to be a slider as it relies more on horizontal break than vertical break. Sitting around 84 mph, you can classify the pitch however you want. This is an average pitch that could continue to get better with refinement.

Slider: The bread-and-butter out-pitch for Skenes. As mentioned before, he previously threw two variations before transitioning fully to the sweeper. The movement that Skenes gets on the pitch is nasty. He has complete control of it and will throw it to both righties and lefties. This is a plus-plus pitch.

Changeup: Skenes has spoken about his comfort relying on his changeup although it is not as effective as his slider. The pitch sits right around 90 mph and is a strong pitch to attack lefties with. This pitch profiles slightly above average.

Biggest Concern: The low IVB on his four-seam fastball is the only thing that scouts could criticize during the draft process. This could impact the pitch’s ability to play at the top of the strike zone and lead to high home run totals.

Conclusion: Skenes could become an ace as soon as next season. He has already an elite 1/2 combination of his fastball and slider and his curve and changeup are continuing to get better. Few pitchers get drafted at the 1.01 and the Pirates’ willingness to take Skenes speaks to his upside and potential. He should be on radars in 2024 based on upside alone.

ETA: August 2024

 

Anthony Solometo LHP (Double-A, 6′ 5″, 20)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A	47.2	2.64	1.05	27.1%	10.1%	13.1%
2023	A+/AA	110.1	3.26	1.19	26.2%	8.6%	14.1%

 

Overview: Funky is the best way to describe Solometo. The Pirates took him 37th overall in the 2021 draft despite the fact he barely touched 90 mph on his fastball. He starts by shifting almost entirely from one side of the rubber to the other with a big leg kick and a roundabout arm motion. He has put up solid numbers so far in his Minor League career and the hope is that with continued development he could turn into an effective Major League starter.

Four-Seamer: We are used to seeing right-handed starters throw their fastball with significant run in on right-handed batters. Well, Solometo’s does the same thing in reverse. The fastball only averages around 91-92(which is an improvement from when he was drafted) and cuts in against lefties. Despite the velocity, FanGraph’s 35 FV rating feels too low.

Slider: Both FanGraphs and MLB.com refer to Solometo’s slider as cutter-esque. The pitch sits around 84 mph and has more horizontal action compared to dive like a typical slider. One concern is how righties can attack and see the pitch even though righties struggled against him last season.

Changeup: The changeup has been a work in progress since being drafted. Despite mediocre velocity on his fastball, his changeup still sits around 86 mph. FanGraphs believes that generating more movement on this could help unlock more potential in his game. From the limited looks I have seen, the pitch appears to have plus potential as he continues to use it more.

Biggest Concern: How will his stuff play against tougher competition? Opposing batters in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues are easier to fool. We already saw his strikeout rate dip after a promotion to Double-A which could be a sign of things to come.

Conclusion: With a delivery like Solometo’s the path to success is easy to figure out. He has shown flashes of increased velocity and if he can even just manage to throw 94-95 consistently, he has middle-of-the-rotation upside. The likelihood of Solometo debuting next season is low, but if everything clicks he has the upside that could make him worth watching.

ETA: September 2024

 

Robert Gasser LHP (Double-A, 6′ 0″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA/AAA	137.0	3.94	1.30	29.7%	9.0%	14.2%
2023	AAA	135.1	3.79	1.28	28.0%	8.4%	11.8%

Last night Robert Gasser threw 6 scoreless innings, allowed just two hits, and struck out ?!

pic.twitter.com/CJn14jQ4J3

— Tyler Koerth (@TylerKoerth) August 5, 2023

Overview: Since coming to Milwaukee at the 2022 Trade Deadline, Gasser has looked impressive at the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. The former 71st overall pick has posted strong strikeout rates throughout his professional career thanks in part to a deep arsenal of pitches that he uses to keep batters off balance.

Four-Seamer: A low arm slot provides some deception on this pitch, although the velocity is nothing to write home about. He sits in the low 90s with strong command on the offering.

Slider: His slider is a big sweeper. With over 15 inches of horizontal break on it, the pitch is lethal to left-handed batters. This is his go-to secondary offering.

Changeup: Gasser uses this pitch to help attack right-handed batters. This and his sinker tunnel well and he gets more horizontal break than most on his changeup.

Fastball Variation: Gasser also mixes in a cutter and sinker to help keep batters off balance. He is definitely more comfortable commanding his cutter and likes to run it in on right-handed batters. This pitch sits 87-89 on the gun and is another pitch Gasser commands well.

Biggest Concern: Righties had significantly more success against Gasser than lefties. he did not surrender a single home run against lefties while allowing 12 to righties. This will need to be fixed if Gasser is to become a reliable asset.

Conclusion: Gasser is likely to make his Major League debut after pitching the entire season in Triple-A. Based on his struggles against righties and lack of fastball velocity, he likely fits in as more of a fantasy streamer than a draftable asset.

ETA: May 2024

 

Ethan Small LHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 26)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AAA	51.0	3.18	1.25	28.5%	11.2%	11.3%
2023	MLB Stats	4.0	11.25	2.75	26.1%	8.7%	13.2%

 

Overview: A once-promising arm in Milwaukee’s system, Small is now 26 years old. The experiment to keep him as a starter has already failed and the best-case scenario is Small developing into a high-leverage bullpen arm.

Four-Seamer: Good extension helps this pitch play up beyond its metrics although he has still struggled to post consistent results. He sits around 92 with good IVB. The reliance on it 60+% of the time though is concerning.

Changeup: Small has excellent command of his changeup and generates plenty of whiffs. This is a plus-pitch moving forward.

Biggest Concern: Small is a two-pitch guy who relies heavily on a below-average fastball. Without a slider, Small profiles to struggle to post consistent results at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Small has already made the transition to the bullpen and does not have the stuff to fulfill a high-leverage role. He is not somebody that needs to be on fantasy radars for 2024.

ETA: May 2024

 

Jacob Misiorowski RHP (Double-A, 6′ 7″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A	1.2	5.40	4.80	21.4%	50.0%	8.1%
2023	A/A+/AA	71.1	3.41	1.18	35.0%	13.4%	15.8%

Brewers 21 year old RHP Prospect Jacob Misiorowski (A) is dealing tonight. Hopefully he’s back out for more work in the 5th. ?

4 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K (48 Pitches) pic.twitter.com/4ULVbkYUDe

— Prospect Larceny (@ProspectLarceny) May 25, 2023

Overview: The hype train has officially left the station for Misiorowski. After his Futuer’s Game performance, the book is out on the lanky right-hander with incredible stuff. Control will be key to unlocking his ace potential.

Four-Seamer: His four-seamer consistently sits in the upper 90s and can easily top 100. He gets big-time arm-side run-in on right-handed batters and loves to work the top of the zone.

Cutter: I have not seen much of his cutter, but MLB.com cites that the pitch sits in the low 90s with sharp break on it. This could help give him another offering to run in on left-handed batters.

Slider: His slider is filthy. The issue is throwing this pitch consistently for strikes. The pitch sits around 87 mph and is definitely a plus offering already.

Curveball: His curveball is still a work in progress, but could be almost as good as his slider. The pitch gets excellent depth and is another pitch that profiles to get plenty of swings-and-misses.

Changeup: MLB.com gives this pitch a FV of 45. After not throwing it in much, Misiorowski is trying to develop this to help him get left-handed batters out.

Biggest Concern: The inability to consistently throw strikes has already hurt him. He has posted high walk rates at every level of the Minor Leagues. As good as his stuff is, it means nothing if batters are unwilling to swing.

Conclusion: Misiorowski is a high-variance prospect. He has the ceiling to be an ace with the floor to struggle in a bullpen role. The arsenal is deep providing a bit of safety, but he will need to work on his control if he is ever going to be a reliable fantasy asset.

ETA: July 2024

 

Carlos F. Rodriguez RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 0″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	107.2	3.01	1.06	30.1%	9.3%	15.9%
2023	AA/AAA	128.1	2.88	1.12	29.3%	10.6%	14.7%

 

Overview: Rodriguez has moved quickly through Milwaukee’s system. He has found success at every level he has played while showing off an impressive arsenal of pitches. His size may scare some scouts away, but it is difficult to argue with his on-field results.

Four-Seamer: The velocity on this pitch is underwhelming. He has shown the ability to touch 95 but consistently sits closer to 91. He commands this pitch well which will be essential to his continued success.

Cutter: His cutter works to keep batters off of his slider. The pitch sits a few ticks slower than his four-seamer and profiles as an average offering.

Slider: Short of a true sweeper, his slider sits in the low-80s. Soft for a slider, he is able to keep batters off balance although I worry about what hitters can do if they see this pitch multiple times.

Curveball: His slider and curveball sometimes are difficult to differentiate. The curve gets more vertical break although it runs flat at times. This is a fringe-average pitch.

Changeup: Everybody who watches Rodriguez agrees that the changeup is his best offering. The pitch disappears with an excellent late fade that makes hitters swing right over the top of it. This is a plus offering that he will throw to righties and lefties.

Biggest Concern: Although his arsenal is deep, he lacks multiple plus pitches. His changeup is excellent, but outside of that, there is not a lot to be excited about. I worry he could struggle against Major League hitting.

Conclusion: Rodriguez is not the flashiest pitcher. His velocity is mediocre and his movement is nothing to write home about. That being said, he has shown an ability to find success at every level he has touched and is worth keeping on your radar for 2024.

ETA: June 2024

 

Tobias Myers RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 1″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AAA	76.0	7.82	2.01	14.2%	13.5%	9.0%
2023	AA/AAA	140.2	4.93	1.25	29.3%	7.7%	14.3%

 

Overview: Despite being just 25, Milwaukee is already Myers’ sixth organization in his professional career. He had success in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues before hitting a wall in Triple-A. He has never been able to take the next step although he posted strong peripherals with Milwaukee this season.

Four-Seamer: A high-IVB four-seamer is always an encouraging start. Myers has solid velocity on the pitch and loves to use it. The issue is spotty command which leaves the pitch out over the zone and leads to plenty of home runs.

Cutter: His cutter works with his slider to create two different velocities on a similar movement profile. The cutter sits in the upper 80s and is his second most used offering. He gets plenty of whiffs although the command is also spotty.

Slider: The slider is really the only breaking ball Myers has any comfort in throwing. He uses it to attack righties, but the movement on it is inconsistent.

Biggest Concern: There is really nothing in Myers’ profile to attack left-handed batters with.

Conclusion: There is a reason that Myers has bounced around several organizations. The fastball profile is enticing, but the rest of his arsenal is below average. If Milwaukee needs somebody to make a start at some point next season it could be Myers although there is limited fantasy upside here.

ETA: September 2024

 

NL East
By: Jake Marsh (@jakemaish)

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP (MLB, 6’3″, 20 years old)

Overview: AJ Smith-Shawver generated a lot of buzz leading up to his MLB debut, as any 20-year-old pitcher would. The results were as pedestrian as you could expect from someone so young, but his arsenal also proved to be more pedestrian than expected. The fastball wasn’t nearly as lively as expected and the developing breakers need more development.

Four-Seamer: Velo ranges from 93-99, and sits at 95. His average velo increased from 94.5 in his final MLB start before his demotion to AAA in July, to 96.5 in his final MLB start of the season, a standalone effort at the end of September. The pitch “rises” 1.4 inches more on average than other four-seamers with similar release points and velo. This is the 83rd percentile among pitchers who threw at least 100 four-seamers in 2023.

Slider: Velo ranges 82-88, sits 85. Very tight-breaking gyro slider with not much movement in either direction. Hasn’t been very effective, and he dropped usage as the year went on.

Changeup: Velo ranges from 84-89, sits at 86. Average vertical movement with above-average horizontal movement. It’s his best whiff, groundball, and put-away pitch. In his final start, he doubled the usage.

Curveball: Velo ranges 75-80, sits 76. It gets about an inch and a half more vertical drop than average, which is solid but nothing incredible. His second-best whiff and chase pitch.

Biggest Concerns: None of the pitches in his arsenal really stand out as difference-makers. In a 25.1 MLB IP sample, his ERA estimators were all extremely poor.

Conclusion: Smith-Shawver is still extremely young for an MLB pitcher. In 2024 it’s unlikely he’s more than a 4 or 5 in the Braves rotation, and he should be a bench/streaming arm in most fantasy leagues. There is some long-term untapped value if he can continue to develop a dependable, whiff-generating breaking ball.

Super Loose ETA: Debuted June 2023. Will be a candidate to make the MLB rotation out of camp in spring 2024.

 

Hurston Waldrep, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 21 years old)

Overview: Hurston Waldrep was drafted 24th overall in the 2023 draft out of the University of Florida. His difference-maker is his splitter, which consistently gets less than 800 RPMs and he can make it cut or fade. The downward break is incredible. His other three pitches flashed plus potential in college and he can be an impact MLB arm as soon as next summer. Don’t bother looking at his savant gamefeed from his AAA debut in September. His splitter wasn’t properly classified and the numbers are all over the place.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 94-99, and sits at 95. It has natural cutting action to it and performs best when elevated and thrown gloveside. He leaves it over the middle of the plate too often.

Splitter: Think Roki Sasaki in the WBC. He can manipulate it as he sees fit and it’s consistently nasty. Splitters can be very finicky, so there’s always a bit of a chance for a blowup with the command.

Slider: Velo in the high 80s with plus command.

Curveball: Velo ranges in the low-to-mid 80s. His over-the-top arm slot creates violent downward movement. He has supreme confidence in the pitch and threw it a ton in college.

Biggest Concerns: Any pitcher prospect who relies heavily on a splitter is inherently a risk, and his command in the minors was a bit suspect in 2023. In college, his pitch usage was suboptimal.

Conclusion: What can give you some peace of mind is that his other three pitches beyond the splitter can make up a solid MLB arsenal by themselves. And the Braves should be able to work with him on game theory and improve his approach. Invest in FYPDs with confidence. Check out this fantastic scouting report from SIS for more info.

Super Loose ETA: August 2024

 

Allan Winans, RHP (MLB, 6’2″, 28 years old)

Overview: Allan Winans is a pitch-to-contact guy without outstanding velocity or break on his pitches. His changeup is his best whiff pitch, and he profiles more like an innings-eater than an upside prospect. He showed much better command in the Majors than he did in the Minors.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 88 to 91, and sits at 90. It features significantly more drop than average, but it has solid arm-side movement.

Sinker: Velo ranges from 88 to 92, and sits at 90. It got hit extremely hard in the Majors.

Slider: Velo ranges from 76 to 81, and sits at 79. It has a really good movement profile, but it doesn’t get nearly as many whiffs as you’d expect.

Changeup: Velo ranges 81 to 84, sits at 83. It’s by far his best pitch, and he started to throw it more towards the end of the season.

Biggest Concerns: He doesn’t feature great velocity and even though his pitches have solid movement profiles, they all get damaged pretty consistently.

Conclusion: He could find himself throwing 100-120 innings if the Braves struggle with SP depth again in 2024, but they won’t be highly sought-after innings. He might be a viable streamer when he has a good chance to get a win against a much weaker team than the Braves.

Super Loose ETA: Debuted in July 2023 and will be a candidate to make the MLB rotation out of camp.

 

Drue Hackenburg, RHP (Double-A, 6’2″, 21 years old)

Overview: Drue Hackenburg was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft after posting poor numbers in his Sophomore year at Virginia Tech. He had a 5.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 85.1 IP across 15 starts. The intrigue lies in his strikeout potential. He struck out 99 batters in those 85.1 college innings, and in his first taste of professional baseball he struck out 13 in 6.1 innings.

Sinker: Velo ranges from 91-95, sits 93. According to scouts, it has good armside and vertical movement.

Slider: Velo ranges 82-85.

Changeup: Unknown, not thrown very often.

Biggest Concerns: He is very raw and unproven. Even though the strikeout numbers have been consistently great, his arsenal doesn’t point to a high whiff potential.

Conclusion: Hackenburg was one of the most talked about freshmen in college baseball in 2022, then took a big step backward in 2023. The Braves got him at a discount to reflect that, and they should be able to work with him to find his sweet spot. The strikeout numbers in a very small sample of two starts are intriguing enough to keep an eye on him heading into 2024.

Super Loose ETA: June 2025

 

Jhancarlos Lara, RHP (High-A, 6’3″, 20 years old)

Overview: Jhancarlos Lara features some of the nastiest stuff in the Minors, and his calling card is burying the slider for tons of whiffs.

Fastball: Velo ranges 94-98, sits 95. He’s continually improving his command on the pitch, and it plays best up in the zone off the depth of the slider.

Slider: Maybe one of the best sliders in the lower minors. The pitch stays in the zone for an impressively long time as it approaches the plate, and then it dives off the plate with tight horizontal break and good depth.

Biggest Concerns: The command overall is a work-in-progress, and he needs to develop at least a third pitch.

Conclusion: Lara plays for a great pitching development organization, and he should be able to develop a dependable third pitch to pair with his already impressive arsenal. There is some relief risk here with the two pitches and spotty command. However, he has improved his walk rate after each promotion he’s earned so far.

Super Loose ETA: May 2026

 

Washington Nationals

DJ Herz, LHP (Double-A, 6’2″, 22 years old)

Overview: DJ Herz is a former 8th-round draft pick who has always carried ridiculous strikeout numbers in the Minors. His left-handed delivery doesn’t produce a high-velo fastball, but he does weaponize a filthy fading changeup that headlines his arsenal.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 90-93. Loves to throw it inside to righties and tunnel it off his slider to lefties.

Changeup: Velo ranges 77-81. Heavily utilized against both righties and lefties.

Slider: Velo ranges 81-85. Mainly featured against lefties and sees great whiff and chase results against them. Looks more like a developing sweeper.

Curveball: Velo ranges 80-82. Sparsely used, and almost always against righties.

Biggest Concerns: The command has been erratic, and he hasn’t thrown 100 IP in any of his four seasons in the Minors.

Conclusion: Herz has the ability to rise quickly to the Majors in 2024. His stuff generates plenty of chases and whiffs and he should be able to feature strong enough command that he’s fantasy viable in all formats for much of next season.

Super Loose ETA: June 2024

 

Cade Cavalli, RHP (MLB, 6’4″, 25 years old)

Overview: Cade Cavalli will be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024. He was a highly anticipated prospect last season and only made one MLB start before the injury. As expectations have waned for him recently, he could provide some cheap value if he can return for the second half of 2024.

Fastball: Velo ranged 92-98, sat 95 pre-surgery. Got great whiffs in his MLB debut.

Curveball: Velo ranged 78-88, sat 85. His best pitch overall and gets most of his whiffs and chases.

Changeup: Velo ranged 85-89, sat 87. Effective off-speed offerings that he commands well.

Slider: Velo ranged 86-92, sat 90. Hasn’t seen great results with it but it profiles as a solid whiff pitch.

Biggest Concerns: Coming back from TJS, it’s unclear how his command will fare. But he had improved his command after every promotion beyond A+ before the surgery.

Conclusion: He won’t be a great player to draft this offseason, but absolutely keep him in mind for mid-season FAAB runs as he makes his way back to the Majors. He could provide a nice boost to your staff.

Super Loose ETA: July 2024

 

Jackson Rutledge, RHP (MLB, 6’8″, 24 years old)

Overview: Jackson Rutledge has all the makings of a great MLB pitcher. He has at least four pitches he’s developed and can command them all well. His fastball averages more than 95 mph and can touch 98. His arsenal features pitches that can move in all four directions. He just needs to optimize his approach and pitch mix a bit before he can find that success.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 93-98, sits 96. Throws it more than 50% of the time and locates it well up in the zone.

Slider: Velo ranges from 81-88, sits 86. It’s his best whiff pitch and he throws it most often of his secondaries.

Changeup: Velo ranges 88-91, sits 89. An effective third offering that he gets good chase numbers on.

Sinker: Velo ranges from 93-97, sits 95. Doesn’t throw it very often but it gets a lot of chases and induces soft contact well.

Curveball: Velo ranges from 79-82, sits 80. It’s seldom used and it’s not particularly effective at getting whiffs or chases.

Biggest Concerns: He hasn’t been able to rack up strikeouts despite good velo on the fastball and decent results on the slider. He might need to throw his worst pitch or two even less and his best secondaries more often.

Conclusion: Rutledge flashed a deep arsenal in MLB that wasn’t as effective as it could be. He could quietly post solid innings for an under-the-radar young team.

Super Loose ETA: Debuted September 2023. Will be a candidate for the 2024 rotation.

 

Jarlin Susana, RHP (Low-A, 6’6″, 19 years old)

Overview: Jarlin Susana was sent to the Nationals as a minor feature of the Juan Soto trade in 2022. His biggest weapon is his high-velo fastball that sits at 98 and can touch 103, and he’s been developing his secondaries as he moves through the system.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more info on his arsenal.

Biggest concerns: He posted a 14.1% walk rate in 63.1 innings at Low-A Fredericksburg.

Conclusion: Susana shouldn’t cost you too much to invest in because he’s pretty far from the majors and he has the command issues still. But the upside is just as great as just about any pitching prospect in baseball.

Super Loose ETA: August 2025

 

Cole Henry, RHP (Double-A, 6’4″, 24 years old)

Overview: Cole Henry was a second-round pick in the 2020 draft and he’s posted really great strikeout rates in the Minors.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report from Prospects Live for more info on Henry’s arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: He has some significant relief risk, and the team has used him in that role already in the Minors. But he started more games as the season came to a close and his stuff could play in a starting role. Injuries also prevented him from pitching more than 35 innings this year.

Conclusion: He likely won’t see substantial innings in the Majors because of his low innings total in 2023, but we could see him for a spot start or two or for a few relief appearances. He could be a solid rotation option come spring 2025.

Super Loose ETA: September 2024

 

New York Mets

Mike Vasil, RHP (Triple-A, 6’5″, 23 years old)

Overview: Mike Vasil dominated AA to start 2023. After being promoted to AAA, his stellar command completely left him and he struggled mightily down the stretch.

Four-seamer: Velo 89-94, sits 92. Throws it more than half the time and locates it well.

Cutter: Velo 80-86, sits 84. It gets a lot of weak contact but isn’t very effective at getting whiffs or chases.

Changeup: Velo 78-85, sits 83. It has very similar strengths and weaknesses to the cutter.

Curveball: Velo 74-82, sits 78. It’s his best whiff-and-chase pitch, and he should probably throw it more often.

Biggest Concerns: The arsenal as-is doesn’t feature very much strikeout potential.

Conclusion: When he was posting minuscule walk rates in AA, the lack of strikeout stuff didn’t seem like too big of an issue. But now with a AAA walk rate north of 11%, it’s much more concerning. A pitch mix change could help his cause tremendously. But he should get a chance to pitch up to 120 IP in the Majors next year if he can capitalize on the opportunity.

Super Loose ETA: April 2024

 

Dominic Hamel, RHP (Double-A, 6’2″, 24 years old)

Overview: Dominic Hamel threw 124 innings at AA this year with a 30.4% K rate and a 9.3% BB rate.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more details on Hamel’s arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: He has yet to reach AAA and there are a handful of guys ahead of him in line to get an MLB opportunity. His stuff isn’t super nasty, but it’s effective.

Conclusion: Hamel feels like a high-floor guy, and I can’t wait to see pitch at a level that has statcast data. We’ll know more about his arsenal then and if something anywhere close to a 30% K rate is sustainable.

Super Loose ETA: June 2024

 

Christian Scott, RHP (Double-A, 6’4″, 24 years old)

Overview: Christian Scott is a four-seamer/slider guy who needs to develop at least a third pitch to continue his upward trajectory. He posted a 2.47 ERA with a 29.4% K-BB% in 62 AA innings pitched across 12 starts.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more info on his arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: He could benefit from a deeper arsenal as he moves up through the farm system.

Conclusion: He doesn’t have much else to show us at AA. In his final 32.2 IP this season, he only allowed 1 walk while striking out 45 batters. Insane.

Super Loose ETA: September 2024

 

Blade Tidwell, RHP (Double-A, 6’4″, 22 years old)

Overview: Blade Tidwell struck out 156 batters in 116 innings across High-A and Double-A in 2023. He has a polished fastball but needs to improve the command on the slider and further develop the curveball.

Four-seamer: Sits 94-96 with good carry.

Slider: Sits in the mid-80s with an impressive mix of horizontal and vertical breaks.

Biggest Concerns: His fastball locations are pretty polished, but his command of his slider and curve is often erratic.

Conclusion: He’ll need to really home in his breaking pitches to take a step forward, but if he can do so he has an outside shot to debut in 2024. He’s a good candidate to be solidly in the starting rotation by mid-2025.

Super Loose ETA: September 2024

 

Robert Colina, RHP (Double-A, 5’11”, 22 years old)

Overview: Robert Colina took some big strides forward in his development in 2023, where he earned a promotion to AA to end the season after 61 stellar innings at High-A. His strikeout stuff has gotten better as he’s progressed, and he should get a chance to pitch at AAA in 2024.

Arsenal: Colina features a fastball, curveball, and changeup. The fastball sits in the mid-90s and the off-speed pitches have plus strikeout potential. Adding a slider or cutter could elevate him even further.

Biggest Concerns: Colina is a bit of an unknown commodity, and he’s been with the Mets since 2019. It’s unclear how his three-pitch arsenal will fare against hitters in the upper minors. He isn’t as tall as the average pitcher, but that hasn’t seemed to impede him so far.

Conclusion: Wait and see him get some extended work in AA and AAA before jumping in or leaving him behind. There are lots of talented arms ahead of him, so he’s someone to have in very deep dynasty leagues or to keep in the way back of your mind for 2025.

Super Loose ETA: August 2025

 

Miami Marlins

Max Meyer, RHP (MLB, 6’0″, 24 years old)

Overview: Max Meyer was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball for a while before he had to undergo Tommy John surgery after two MLB starts in 2022. He should be ready to go for the start of the year in 2024.

Slider: Velo was 86-92 and sat at 89 prior to the surgery. He threw this pitch by far the most in his brief stint in the Majors. It’s his best pitch and it’s very effective at getting whiffs and chases.

Four-seamer: Velo was 93-97 and sat at 95 prior to the surgery. It’s not a fantastic whiff pitch but he can command it well and tunnel it off the slider effectively. We’ll see how the fastball command returns after surgery, but there will likely be an adjustment period.

Changeup: Velo was 85-90 and sat at 88 prior to the surgery. It’s decent at getting chases and soft contact.

Biggest Concerns: He will be coming off TJS, but he will have had much more time than usual to fully recover before entering game action again. His MLB debut was good, but not quite as electrifying as we had expected at that time.

Conclusion: I’m willing to buy back in on a former top prospect who should be healthy entering next season. I’d just be ready to move on quickly if you roster him early on, or you can avoid him in drafts and try to scoop him up of the wire once he shows us something.

Super Loose ETA: April 2024

 

Patrick Monteverde, LHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 26 years old)

Overview: Patrick Monteverde had a stellar first half of the season at AA and was eventually promoted to AAA at the end of July. He only lasted two starts at the level because he gave up 13 earned runs in 3 IP in his second start at the level. He had started to falter down the stretch in AA, and there are concerns about his effectiveness against good hitters with his very low velocity.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 87-91 and sits at 89. His low arm slot and release point help its effectiveness, but there’s only so much you can do with a fastball that sits lower than 90 mph.

Secondaries: The slider and changeup are solid whiff pitches, but there’s very little velocity separation off of his four-seamer.

Biggest Concerns: His lack of velocity limits his upside, even if he’s a crafty lefty.

Conclusion: He could be a guy like Nestor Cortes who lives off his craftiness, deception, and pitch movement, but he needs to still add a couple of ticks of velocity and develop his secondaries more to have anywhere near that kind of upside. Depending on the Marlins pitching health in 2024, he could get opportunities in the second half.

Super Loose ETA: August 2024

 

Enmanuel De Jesus, LHP (MLB, 6’3″, 26 years old)

Overview: Enmanuel De Jesus spent nine seasons in the Minors before making his MLB debut at age 26 in a long relief appearance in September of this season. He was sent back to AAA afterward and later came up for another long relief appearance in the last week of the season. His ratios and K-BB% don’t really jump off the page, but I’m intrigued by his arsenal and the flash of whiff potential he showed in his two MLB appearances.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges 91-95, sits 93. The results aren’t great and it rates like an average lefty fastball. His locations are poor, even though he has a high Zone%. He leaves it in hittable situations too often.

Changeup: Velo ranges 85-89, sits 87. It has really great movement down and away from righties. It’s also his best whiff-and-chase pitch by far. In his second MLB appearance, he threw it as his primary pitch.

Slider: Velo ranges 77-83, sits 79. It features a 5.4 inches more vertical drop than the average lefty slider with similar velocity. Its results have been pretty good- it’s his second-best whiff pitch right behind the changeup and shows a great CSW%. He could benefit from throwing it more often.

Sinker: Average movement and velo profile with mediocre results.

Biggest Concerns: The fastball isn’t a great pitch, but it could take a step forward with better locations. He might have to lean on his secondaries more often which could leave him open to command issues, even though he commands those pitches pretty well right now in limited use. Upper-level strikeout rates are poor.

Conclusion: The overall 12.5% SwStr% in his brief MLB appearances and the profiles of his secondaries make me believe that the 14-15% strikeout rates last year could make a significant jump with more time with the MLB coaching staff next year.

Super Loose ETA: May 2024

 

Dax Fulton, LHP (Double-A, 6’7″, 22 years old)

Overview: Dax Fulton’s 2023 season ended when he had to undergo elbow surgery in June. It’s not a full reconstruction and TJS, but it is repairing his UCL. The timeline is a little shorter than a full TJS, so there’s a chance that he misses less than half of 2024. Before the surgery, Fulton flashed a big curve and solid fastball from the left side and carried a 30.3% K rate across 53 IPs in 2022 and 2023.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more information on Fulton’s pitch mix.

Biggest Concerns: Even though he didn’t have to undergo a full reconstruction of the UCL, there’s still going to be an adjustment period and some future injury risk. His walk rate spiked this year before the injury.

Conclusion: It’s unlikely that we see Fulton in the Majors in 2024, but he’s absolutely someone to keep in mind for 2025. He could even be a solid buy-low in most dynasty leagues if you have some room for risk. The breaking pitches could carry him through a great hype cycle in the next year or two.

Super Loose ETA: May 2025

 

Karson Milbrandt, RHP (High-A, 6’2″, 19 years old)

Overview: Karson Milbrandt was drafted out of high school in the third round of the 2022 draft, and he earned a promotion to High-A in his first professional season this year. At 19, he was the youngest pitcher on his team and one of the youngest in the league.

Four-seamer: Velo touches 94-95. His delivery could be fine-tuned a bit to be repeated better, and there’s definitely room for velocity growth as he matures and figures out his mechanics.

Curveball: Very big breaker that’s advanced for his age.

Changeup: Already a dependable third pitch with room for optimization in the approach.

Biggest Concerns: He is young for the level, but he’s also likely still at least two seasons out from seeing MLB action. A lot could change in that time.

Conclusion: Someone to keep tabs on as he faces better hitters and develops. The overall velocity and movement profile make him an intriguing prospect.

Super Loose ETA: April 2026

 

Philadelphia Phillies

Mick Abel, RHP (Triple-A, 6’5″, 22 years old)

Overview: Mick Abel has produced remarkably consistent results across four levels of the Minors in his first three seasons of professional baseball.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges 91-96, sits 94. It fills up the zone but also draws a ton of contact.

Slider: Velo ranges 76-80, sits 78. He threw the slider most often during his AAA debut in late September. Batters hardly swung at it because it was extremely wild and unpredictable. But when they did swing, they missed frequently. This pitch has the makings of an elite offering if it can be commanded just a touch better.

Changeup: Velo ranges 85-87, sits 86. Seldom used but it can be a solid whiff pitch.

Sinker and cutter: These two pitches could round out a deep and well-developed arsenal if Abel can find and execute practical usage.

Biggest Concerns: Abel has never carried a walk rate of less than 10% at any level or in any season. Even though the slider is his best pitch, it looks like he can’t control it very well.

Conclusion: In his AAA debut, he threw his pitches in the strike zone at a league-average rate. He just couldn’t get any chases. If he can find a way to cut down the walks and make his wild slider more effective, then he could rise as high as the Phillies’ number-two starter by late 2024.

Super Loose ETA: May 2024

 

Griff McGarry, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 24 years old)

Overview: Griff McGarry is the extreme version of Mick Abel– his stuff is almost as good, but his command is even worse than Abel’s. He also had maybe the worst first three AAA starts of all time. After being promoted in early August, he threw 4.1 IP across three starts where he gave up 20 earned runs, struck out 5, and walked 14.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges 91-95, sits 94. It’s not a great whiff pitch but he throws it in the zone with the most consistency of his pitches, and it gets a good amount of called strikes.

Slider: Velo ranges 80-85, sits 83. It’s the secondary pitch that he throws the most, but not necessarily the one with the best results. Although, it’s still a pretty good whiff pitch.

Curveball: Velo ranges 77-80, sits 79. This is his best secondary pitch. He throws it in the zone most often, it gets the most chases, and it gets the most whiffs. He only threw it about 10% of the time in his three AAA starts.

Changeup: Velo ranges 85-89, sits 87. He very, very rarely throws his changeup so there isn’t a lot of data on it.

Biggest Concerns: He doesn’t command any one of his pitches well.

Conclusion: He’s the epitome of a high-risk, high-reward guy. It’s best to wait and see how he works in the offseason to fix the clear issues he had in his AAA debut.

Super Loose ETA: August 2024

 

Michael Plassmeyer, LHP (MLB, 6’2″, 26 years old)

Overview: Michael Plassmeyer has thrown the most AAA innings of any of the Phillies’ top pitching prospects. He lacks the high velocity, big stuff arsenal that Abel and McGarry both have, but he makes up for it with solid command of his breaking pitches.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 86-90, sits 88. I don’t really know how, but this pitch carried a 13% SwStr rate in his 67.2 AAA IP in 2023.

Slider: Velo ranges from 75-79, sits 77. It’s his best pitch by far and has performed with elite metrics at times in AAA. Batters chase it out of the zone frequently and seldom make solid contact with it.

Changeup: Velo ranges 80-85, sits 83. He doesn’t throw it in the zone consistently, and batters chase often but don’t swing and miss often. Decent third pitch for ground balls and weak contact.

Biggest Concerns: I’m not convinced he’ll be able to hold his own against MLB hitters with a fastball that rarely touches 90 mph. But somehow, it’s worked well enough up until this point.

Conclusion: Proceed with caution. But if it works, it works. He could be a good streamer in 2024 if you find yourself desperately in need of a win against a poor offense.

Super Loose ETA: April 2024

 

Alex McFarlane, RHP (Low-A, 6’3″, 22 years old)

Overview: Alex McFarlane has a big, high-velo fastball and has shown great strikeout numbers in his short minor league career so far.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report from MLB Pipeline to read more about McFarlane’s arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: There’s still a lot of projecting to do here – he needs to clean up his delivery and find the right pitch mix.

Conclusion: There’s an outside shot that McFarlane makes his way to AA this season, and if that happens he could be a very fast riser on prospect lists. Be ahead of the curve and watch for him to take a step forward with his approach and secondary pitches early on in 2024.

Super Loose ETA: May 2026

 

Jean Cabrera, RHP (Low-A, 6’0″, 21 years old)

Overview: Jean Cabrera cut his walk rate in half from 2022 to 2023 and maintained his average strikeout skills. In 2021, he won the award for the top pitching season in the Phillies minor league system.

Arsenal: If you scroll down on this Fangraphs org ranking to where Cabrera is listed as prospect no. 35, you can read more about his upside and arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: Cabrera got started a little bit late after he signed as a 17-year-old in July of 2019 but didn’t pitch professionally until the 2021 season. The lost COVID year set him back, and he still has to catch up on the development of his secondary pitches.

Conclusion: This is a pitching prospect who had the makings of a quick riser before he had some growing pains in 2022. He just put together a quietly productive 2023 and could take another step forward in development in 2024.

Super Loose ETA: September 2025

 

NL West

By: Steve Dwyer (@SteveDwyer23)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Yu-Min Lin, LHP (Double-A, 5’11/160/20 Years Old)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	56.1	2.72	1.10	40.3%	9.7%
2023	AA	121.1	3.86	1.19	28.2%	9.7%

Overview: Lin has established himself as the Diamondbacks’ top pitching prospect and held his own against advanced competition in his age 20 season. Reaching the Double-A level in 2023, Lin successfully pitched deep into games often. A plus changeup to go along with 3 or 4 other good secondaries makes Lin have to square up.

Fastball: The weakest pitch in the large arsenal for Lin, his low 90s fastball could use some improvement. If velocity improves at all in 2024, Lin is looking at the front of the rotation potential.

Curveball: One of the promising off-speed pitches for Lin, his curveball is arguably his best strikeout pitch. A big breaking curve could be less effective against more disciplined hitters but either way, it has plus potential.

Slider: An undervalued secondary from Lin, the slider often makes hitters look foolish for a lot of swings and misses. Currently viewed as his second-best offering, the slider has a chance to be plus consistently.

Changeup: No doubt for me, the changeup is the most successful offering for Lin. Great late movement and deception have hitters swing through it expecting a fastball. This pitch gives Lin the ability to accumulate strikeouts at a high rate while also maintaining potential #2 starter potential.

Biggest Concerns: Lin is on the smaller side at just 5’11/160, so durability and lack of velocity on his fastball are two knocks on the crafty lefty. A third potential concern could be command as he faces advanced hitters that can lay off the big moving off-speed pitches.

Conclusion: Without a plus fastball, Lin is likely to be a 3 starter in the big leagues. His secondary pitches should keep hitters off balance and allow him to pitch 5-6 innings per start. If the command sticks, Lin has the potential to pitch deeper when he has it all working.  With three to four good secondary offerings, Lin should put up good strikeout numbers tied to the number of innings he throws per season.

ETA: July 2024

 

Blake Walston, LHP (Triple-A, 6’5/175/22 Years Old)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	11	2.45	0.91	40.5%	4.8%
2021	A+	95.2	3.76	1.24	28.8%	8.1%
2022	AA	124	4.79	1.40	25.8%	8.6%
2023	AAA	149.1	4.52	1.57	15.6%	14%

Overview: Walston was looking like a frontline starter and one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. A down 2022 season and an arguably worse 2023 season have him looking to rebound for 2024. Walston doesn’t have a great fastball but can throw a slider, changeup, and curveball to help hide the lack of velocity on his fastball.

Fastball: Despite being 6’5, the uptick in velo has yet to happen for Walston as he sits in the mid to low 90s. For Walston to regain his top pitching prospect status, he’ll need to be sitting at 94-95 mph consistently.

Curveball: Walston has a big curve that he can drop in for a strike or get a swing and miss on. At times this pitch looks like it could be above average, but Walston needs to command this pitch well enough for that to happen. The curveball could end up playing well off his slider if he’s able to keep it down in the zone.

Slider: Currently the most reliable secondary pitch in his repertoire, Walston flashes a good slider that works great against left-handed hitters. The slider and changeup battle back and forth for his best pitch but both are good offerings.

Changeup: The changeup development for Walston could determine how successful of a pitcher he becomes. Like his curve, the changeup can be thrown for a strike and get swing and misses.

Biggest Concerns: After 2023, command and a lack of plus offerings seem to have halted Walston as a top pitching prospect. 93 walks in 149.1 innings at Triple-A Reno, equating to a 1.57 whip, made it hard for Walston to succeed. Without a true strikeout pitch, Walston only added 104 strikeouts in those 149.1 innings at Triple-A in 2023.

Conclusion: Walston is better than he pitched in 2023 but the walks and strikeouts need to both move drastically for him to make an impact at the MLB level. Once thought to be a potential ace, Walston is now shaping up to be a mid-to-back end of the rotation starter.

ETA: June 2024

 

Dylan Ray, RHP (Double-A, 6’3/230)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	13.2	6.59	1.46	27.4%	6.5%
2023	AA	113.1	4.37	1.24	29.3%	8.5%

Overview: A 2022 4th-round pick, Ray put together a solid season at High-A before a rough end at Double-A in 2023. Ray has three pitches that he throws well and mixes in a changeup as a fourth offering. His fastball and slider bring the most success with swing and misses, while the curve and changeup keep hitters off balance.

Fastball: Ray throws his fastball at 95-96 mph consistently with late movement which should allow him to get away with some mistakes. At times this pitch has some true two-seam action as it reaches the plate.

Curveball: A work in progress, Ray has flashed an above-average curveball that he throws in the upper 70s. The development of this pitch could be crucial to keeping him as a starter.

Slider: The best pitch Ray throws is his mid-80s slider. A true strikeout pitch, Ray is willing to throw this pitch ahead or behind in the count. If a bullpen role is in his future, this pitch will be his go-to, mixed in with a fastball.

Changeup: His 4^th offering, Ray is working on improving his change for another change of pace pitch in his arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Ray could be a lot more successful as a reliever right now, but he has the chance to stick as a starter. Ray could follow the steps of Drey Jameson as a multi-inning type of guy if the Diamondbacks choose to go that route.

Conclusion: Ray has a big frame at 6’3, 230 pounds so durability over a long season shouldn’t be an issue. Ray does a good job of missing bats while also limiting contact and the Diamondbacks could use him as a potential spot starter through 2024.

ETA: September 2024

 

Yilber Diaz, RHP (Double-A, 6’0/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	26.1	5.13	1.59	14.0%	14.9%
2022	A+	77.2	4.06	1.21	30.1%	11.6%
2023	AA	102.2	4.84	1.34	31.8%	13.2%

Overview: Diaz has powerful stuff that often translates to good strikeout numbers. His fastball and curveball both have good movement, and he adds in a slider and changeup for two more different looks. Diaz tended to use his fastball and curveball in 2023 for most of his strikeouts. The big 12-6 movement from the curve leaves hitters swinging hard as it drops through the zone. Diaz will then blow his fastball by hitters leaving them looking at strike three as it registers in the upper 90’s.

Fastball: A plus fastball, Diaz has hit 99 with his heater but sits at 95-96. His best offering at the moment, Diaz throws his fastball with 110 percent effort which allows him to reach such high velocity.

Curveball: This curveball is nasty and often a strikeout pitch for Diaz. A big 12-6 dropping curveball that is clocked in the upper 70s, it moves almost the entire strike zone causing huge swings and misses. Diaz will need to be careful to keep this down against advanced hitters but paired with his fastball he can fool plenty of hitters.

Slider: A third potential above-average offering for Diaz, his slider offers a different look from his curve with good right-to-left break. As he gains more consistency with this pitch, the strikeout numbers should continue to rise.

Changeup: His fourth offering and his weakest, it is still a good offering. He doesn’t throw his change as much as his other pitches and with good reason. Still, this extra offering gives his starter potential at the big league level.

Biggest Concerns: Command is the biggest hurdle for Diaz as he walked 58 batters in 102.2 innings in 2023. This puts reliever risk on the potential MLB role for Diaz. In 2021, Diaz pitched only as a reliever in the DSL where walks were still an issue, making a reliever profile much more realistic.

Conclusion: Diaz has good velocity and a curveball that seems to leave hitters guessing at the lower levels. His delivery makes it look like he’s throwing 110 percent, which paired with his size may cause some durability concerns. Diaz has the potential to be a back-end starter that comes along with high strikeouts and walk totals.

ETA: September 2024

 

Landon Sims, RHP (Single-A, 6’2/227)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A	24.2	5.47	1.42	25.7%	11%

Overview: Sims burst onto the scene as a reliever in his sophomore season and dominated out of the bullpen for Mississippi State. After moving to the starting rotation his junior year, Sims needed Tommy John surgery after just 15.2 innings. A plus mix of a fastball and slider, Sims struck out 150 batters in his 85 collegiate innings. The professional career hasn’t been as successful for Sims, but the good news is the Diamondbacks are letting him start.

Fastball: Arguably his best pitch, Sims consistently throws 95-96 mph and has hit even higher. At times it can almost be called a rising fastball as the late movement continues when thrown up in the zone.

Slider: His other plus offering, Sims has a slider that will most likely be his strikeout pitch in the pros. A mid-80s slider, Sims throws this pitch well and often.

Changeup: A pitch that needs development, Sims has some good movement to his changeup. If the Diamondbacks want to give Sims a go as a starter, this pitch will be crucial to his success.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Sims was most successful as a reliever in college and could pitch in high-leverage situations as a pro. The lack of secondary pitches may limit Sims from pitching deep into games.

Conclusion: The Diamondbacks could move Sims quickly now that he’s recovered from Tommy John. A hot start to 2024 could catapult Sims through the minor leagues quickly, but we might see him take on a long relief role for Arizona.

ETA: August 2024

 

Colorado Rockies

Carson Palmquist, LHP (Double-A, 6’3/185)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	ROK	1	0.00	2.00	20%	40%
2023	AA	92.1	3.90	1.27	34.3%	9.5%

Carson Palmquist threw 108 pitches today with a complete game(7 IP DH) striking out 9 and walking one.
27 whiffs/39% CSW/69% strikes
Has at least 6 IP and 8 K in 4 of his last 5 starts. pic.twitter.com/fn3nGEIBhy

— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) September 8, 2023

Overview: A 3^rd round pick in 2022 out of Miami, Palmquist if a crafty lefty that racks up the strikeouts. A solid three-pitch repertoire, plus good command has given Palmquist the ability to start for the Rockies. Standing tall and lanky, Palmquist has a funky delivery where he shortens his body as he delivers his pitch to hitters.

Fastball: A low 90s fastball, Palmquist relies on his delivery for success with this pitch. An average offering currently, Palmquist has room for a jump in velocity.

Slider: Probably his best offering again because of his delivery, Palmquist throws a good 77-79 mph slider. This pitch is particularly hard to pick up out of his hand because Palmquist hides the ball late into his release.

Changeup: There is a case to be made, the changeup is the best pitch Palmquist currently has. Sitting in the low 80s, it has good break and can compete with his slider as a strikeout pitch.

Biggest Concerns: A dominant reliever in college, Palmquist could be converted back to such if he struggles in his next promotion to Triple-A. The velocity on his fastball also ticks up a bit in shorter outings so the stuff may play better in a relief role as well.

Conclusion: Palmquist had a successful enough 2023 where the Rockies will almost certainly let him try his hand as a starter for now. It’s hard to watch Palmquist and not see shades of Chris Sale from a delivery and strikeout standpoint. Palmquist is an under-the-radar watch for 2024.

ETA: July 2024

 

Joe Rock, LHP (Triple-A, 6’6/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	8	1.13	0.75	37.9%	3.4%
2022	AA	115.2	4.82	1.26	24.4%	10.2%
2023	AAA	92.2	4.66	1.41	27.5%	8.3%

Overview: A big lefty, Rock stands 6’6 and adds a funky but smooth delivery. The windup is long which sometimes leads to overextending and overthrowing but his walk rate is still relatively low. Both his slider and changeup work well off his fastball to give him mid to back-end rotation potential.

Fastball: Rock throws his heater in the low to mid-90s with some movement. Currently his best pitch, it has more room for improvement as Rock is a big starter.

Slider: Sometimes classified more as a slurve, Rock throws this pitch with great movement. This pitch tends to have left-handed hitters fooled more than right-handed hitters.

Changeup: The third pitch is his arsenal; Rock still has a good feel for his changeup. Not at the same level as his other two pitches, Rock will need to improve this pitch to stick around as a starter.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Rock doesn’t have the best stuff, but his delivery and size are enough to be a deceptive pitcher. Right now, Rock is limited to a back-end starter but put together some longer starts at the Double-A level in 2023.

Conclusion: The Rockies need pitching help at the MLB level and Rock is one of the closest in the farm to starting that. A 2024 spot starter or inning eater could both be in the cards for Rock, but he has enough potential to stick in a MLB rotation for a few years as well.

ETA: July 2024

 

Chase Dollander, RHP (N/A, 6’2/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	N/A

Overview: The most watched pitcher coming into the 2023 college season, Dollander was not as dominant as his 2022 season. With 2 pitches that are already plus pitches, Dollander holsters 2 more pitches that can be above-average pitches.

Fastball: The best pitch for Dollander is his fastball. It sits at 95/96 mph and has touched 98. A dominant fastball showcased in 2022 at Tennessee, it overmatched hitters.

Curveball: Dollander has a chance to turn his curveball into an above-average pitch. The spin rate is high, like his slider which allows him to use this pitch to get hitters to swing and miss.

Slider: Dollander and his slider were key to his breakout 2022 season. In 2023, the slider wasn’t as sharp which led to a somewhat disappointing season. This pitch is still his best offering paired with his fastball and is a go-to strikeout pitch.

Changeup: Another pitch that flashes above average, Dollander throws his changeup in the mid to high 80s. His third-best offering, Dollander can rack up strikeouts with this pitch as well. Consistency is key for all his pitches after a sub-par 2023.

Biggest Concerns: Command. After putting himself on the map as the best pitching prospect in the 2023 draft, Dollander lost his command in his final season at Tennessee. We’ll have to see which version of command Dollander gives us to start his professional career.

Conclusion: Dollander has plus stuff and the potential of a frontline starter. Much like Jack Leiter a jump straight to Double-A could be possible as the stuff is that good. Dollander should still be thought of as a top pitching prospect in baseball that could find his way to Coors quickly.

ETA: August 2024

 

Sean Sullivan, LHP (Single-A, 6’4/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A	4.0	0.00	0.25	76.9%	7.7%

Overview: A 2^nd round pick in 2023, Sullivan has more similarities to a Chris Sale delivery than Carson Palmquist does. Sullivan delivers his pitch from the first end side of the rubber, which gives plenty of deception. Like Palmquist, the stuff isn’t’ much like Chris Sale either, as Sullivan has a fastball that sits in the upper 80’s/lower 90’s. Despite powerful stuff, Sullivan racked up 111 strikeouts in his final season at Wake in just 69.2 innings.

Fastball: The best pitch Sullivan throws is his fastball, but not because of the velocity like most pitchers. Sullivan uses his funky delivery and movement on his fastball to get hitters to swing through it.

Slider: The pitch that needs some improvement is his slider/slurve. It comes in at 80 mph and often in the high 70s which could be an issue against advanced hitters.

Changeup: A low 80’s changeup is another reason Sullivan put up a 14.3 K/9 at Wake Forest in his final season. The changeup drops away from right-handed hitters and in on left-handed hitters right as it gets to the hitter. This will pair well with his fastball for swing and misses in the pros much like it did at Wake.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Sullivan profiles as a plus reliever or multi-inning guy but the Rockies should let him start for now. This possibility most likely won’t be evident until Sullivan faces some tougher completion, which hopefully will come at the Double-A level early in 2024.

Conclusion: Sullivan could move fast in 2024 as a starter or reliever if Colorado wants to go that route. He looked dominant in his short stint at Low-A Fresno and could skip High-A entirely to start 2024 due to it being hitter-friendly.   

ETA: August 2024

 

Mason Albright, LHP (High-A, 6’0/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	8.0	0.00	0.63	26.7%	6.7%
2022	A+	55.0	8.67	1.96	21.6%	10.3%
2023	A+	109.2	3.28	1.26	25.9%	7.4%

Overview: Acquired from the Angels, Albright is a younger lefty in an organization that seems to have mostly left-handed pitching. Albright matches the profiles of Palmquist, Rock, and Sullivan in that they’re all mid-level talents right now. A low 90’s fastball to go with 3 off-speed decent pitches succeeded in High-A Spokane which is a park that favors hitters.

Fastball/Cutter: Albright has a low 90s fastball that most likely won’t fare well against higher competition without a jump in velocity or movement. At times his fastball has good late 2 seam action to it, and he has developed a cutter that works opposite to that pitch.

Curveball: Potentially the only above-average pitch for Albright, his big curve can leave hitters frozen. It’ll be interesting to see how this slow curve holds up against older hitters.

Changeup: His fourth offering is a changeup that has the potential to be average to above average.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Albright has mostly average stuff across the board which equates to a back-end rotation guy. With no plus pitch, Albright looks more like a starter who can eat innings with good strikeout potential.

Conclusion: Albright should start the season in Double-A Hartford but is a good candidate to be a spot starter around the middle to late part of the season.

ETA: September 2024

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Gavin Stone, RHP (MLB, 6’1/175)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A+	91	3.76	1.23	36.5%	6.6%
2022	AAA	121.2	1.48	1.12	33.9%	8.9%
2023	MLB	100.2	4.74	1.31	27.8%/14.5%	10.7%/8.6%

Overview: Entering the 2023 season, Stone had eyes all over him after posting a 1.48 ERA from High-A to Triple-A in 2022. Add in a devastating changeup that misses bats at an elite level, Stone has totaled 426 strikeouts in 313.1 minor league innings. The Major League Debut was not the same for Stone as he struggled to keep hitters off base. His chase and whiff percentages were good in his 31-inning cup of coffee but that was about it. When Stone has his slider working, he has the chance to be a #3 starter.

Fastball: Baseball Savant classifies Stone as having a fastball, sinker, and cutter. His Sinker had a .227 batting average against while being thrown 14.4% of the time. Stone is going to have to improve his 4-seam and cut fastballs as they were both hit for over a .400 batting average by opponents.

Slider: The slider was the pitch that needed to improve for Stone to reach starter potential and at times in the minors, it looked to be there. But like his fastball, it was hit for a .385 batting average against and was only thrown 6.2% of the time.

Changeup: The changeup put Stone on the map as a potential mid-rotation starter. It was his second most successful pitch in his unsuccessful MLB debut only allowing a .240 batting average against.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever and stuff risk. Stone has an elite changeup but his fastball and slide both were hit hard last year. The command wasn’t there at the MLB level in his debut, but teammate Ryan Pepiot had a similar debut and we saw a huge turnaround from him in 2023.

Conclusion: Stone should get an opportunity to pitch quality innings for the Dodgers in 2024. A modified long reliever or spot starter could help Stone succeed with the lack of secondary offerings.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Nick Frasso, RHP (Triple-A, 6’5/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	5	0.00	1.00	38.1%	9.5%
2022	AA	54	1.83	0.93	35.8%	8%
2023	AAA	93	3.77	1.27	26.8%	7.8%

 

Strong outing from Dodgers RHP prospect Nick Frasso yesterday at Double-A.

5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Fastball touched 96 mph several times, mostly sat 93-95 mph. Changeup was really working, picked up 7 whiffs.

?: @WindSurgeICT pic.twitter.com/L8KySBX4EH

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) August 4, 2023

Overview: Frasso is 6’5, 200 pounds, and uses all of that to throw his plus fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90’s.  A changeup and slider which are both average secondary offerings, could force Frasso to move to the bullpen or a long relief role.

Fastball: No doubt the best pitch for Frasso is his big fastball that has touched Triple digits. The velocity allows Frasso to throw this pitch around the plate and get away with it. There is good late action to his fastball that makes it get on hitters quickly.

Slider: His third offering, the slider is a good change of pace for Frasso who also accumulates strikeouts. At times he loses the shape of his slider and needs to locate it more in the zone.

Changeup: His second-best pitch is a mid-80s changeup that has a lot of vertical drop. This pitch drops in to right-handed hitters and plays very well mixed in with his plus fastball.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. The Dodgers have given Frasso the opportunity to start since acquiring him, but he has yet to throw deep into games. In 2023, Frasso threw into the 6^th inning just once. The Dodgers could be taking the cautious approach as Frasso only threw 54 innings in 2022.

Conclusion: One of the many promising Dodgers pitching prospects, Frasso has more reliever risk than most. There isn’t much left for Frasso to prove in the Minor Leagues besides pitching deep into games and showing his durability. If the Dodgers loosen the reigns, Frasso could make an impact quickly at the MLB level.

ETA: June 2024

 

River Ryan, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2/195)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A+	47.2	2.45	1.24	34.8%	10.4%
2023	AAA	104.1	3.80	1.30	24.6%	10.3%

Overview: Ryan might have the best stuff of any Dodgers pitching prospect with four offerings that all flash above-average potential. Much like Nick Frasso, Ryan hasn’t pitched deep in games. Given his advanced age, Ryan could be the first in line for spot starts in 2024.

Fastball/Cutter: The best offering for Ryan is his mid to high 90s fastball that can touch 98-99. He has some good rising action on his four-seam fastball and mixes in a low 90s cutter. Both pitches are above-average pitches with flashes of plus.

Curveball: Ryan has another above-average pitch in his low 80s curveball that he can throw for a strike. The curveball may lean more to above average as opposed to plus potential.

Changeup: Ryan has two solid offerings, but his changeup is slightly above his curveball currently. The changeup flashes plus and Ryan has solid velocity on this pitch in the mid-80s.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Walks have been an issue for Ryan so far in the minors which look likely from him overthrowing at times. An athletic and repeatable delivery, Ryan doesn’t accumulate walks from his mechanics. His fastball has some rise and carry on it that often misses high but still gets swing and misses from minor league hitters.

Conclusion: Before reaching Triple-A for a brief stint to end 2023, Ryan overmatched hitters often with his plus stuff despite it being over the middle of the plate at times. He has the look of an everyday starter who could pitch in the middle of MLB rotations.

ETA: July 2024

 

Landon Knack, RHP (Triple-A, 6’4/220)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	AA	62.1	3.18	0.93	33.3%	3.3%
2022	AA	64.2	5.01	1.41	28.4%	9.6%
2023	AAA	100.1	2.51	1.16	24.1%	7.3%

Overview: Knack is more of a finesse pitcher with average stuff as he pitched to a 2.51 ERA in 2023 with only 99 strikeouts. Knack had plus command when he first debuted in 2021, pitching 62.1 innings and only walking 8 batters. As Knack has advanced through the minor leagues, the command went from elite to above average.

Fastball: A mid-90s fastball, Knack combines this above-average pitch with his good control to limit hits against him.

Curveball: The weakest pitch in his arsenal, Knack throws a high 70s curve that lacks the movement of an average pitch.

Slider: Arguably the best pitch for Knack, his slider sits in the mid-80s and has good break to it often getting weak contact or swings and misses.

Changeup: A potential above-average pitch, Knack has a breakaway changeup that sometimes moves toward right-handed hitters. Knack has a chance to develop this pitch to a consistent strikeout pitch.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Knack might not have good enough stuff to stick as a starter. The command allows Knock to continue his career as a starter for now, but Major League hitters might take advantage of the average offerings.

Conclusion: At 6’2, 220 pounds, Knack should be able to handle a full season workload. The Dodgers aren’t the team to deploy an inning-eating type of starter unless needed for a spot start so that may be the extent of his 2024 season.

ETA: August 2024

 

Justin Wrobleski, LHP (High-A, 6’1/195)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	21.2	2.91	1.15	29.9%	5.7%
2023	A+	102.1	2.90	1.25	26%	8.3%

Overview: Wrobleski has four solid offerings that have allowed him to pitch to a sub-3 ERA in his 124-inning minor league career. A mid-90s fastball with his somewhat funky delivery allows him to get ahead of hitters often. Watching Wrobleski pitch, he profiles as a long reliever, but the above-average stuff should give him the opportunity to start.

Fastball: A mis 90s fastball, Wrobleski features good late action that leads to swing and misses. The uptick in velocity gives him a mid-rotation upside.

Curveball: Wrobleski didn’t throw this pitch often but when he did it looked like a good secondary offering that could be above average. A big breaking curve, it breaks away from left-handed hitters giving him another pitch to keep hitters guessing.

Slider: His best pitch along with his fastball, Wrobleski throws a good mid-80s slider with a lot of break. This pitch would play well out of the bullpen if he needs to go that route.

Changeup: Wrobleski has a feel for his changeup, but it isn’t quite at the same level as his slider or fastball. It has the potential to be his third-best pitch if he can develop consistency.

Biggest Concerns: Command. A bit of a high-effort delivery, Wrobleski can lose control at times. So far, the command is only lost on a pitch or two during an at-bat and Wrobleski has been able to rebound to get the out.

Conclusion: Wrobleski limits hard contact and has solid movement on his pitches, freezing a good number of hitters. The Dodgers won’t need to rush Wrobleski, but a multi-inning reliever role would fit Wrobleski well to start his career.   

ETA: August 2024

 

San Diego Padres

Jairo Iriarte, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/160)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	35.1	3.31	1.39	13.4%	8.9%
2021	A	30	11.40	1.87	23.4%	9%
2022	A	91.1	5.12	1.37	26.7%	10.3%
2023	AA	90.1	3.49	1.28	33.2%	11.7%

Jairo Iriarte (SD): 6 IP, ER, 3 H, 10 K. Forced 24 whiffs and a 42% CSW on 86 pitches. 10 strikeouts were a season high and he now owns a 2.95 ERA and a 69:26 K:BB through 55 IP pic.twitter.com/xoH2LyZY7n

— Tyler Bowen (@bowentyler96) June 26, 2023

Overview: After a bit of an up-and-down start to his professional career, Iriarte looked to turn a corner in 2023. A smaller starter, weighing just 160 pounds, Iriarte regularly hits 96 with his fastball. There are a lot of similarities in delivery to former Royals starter Yordano Ventura. A quick whippy and strong delivery that racks up strikeouts is always fun to watch.

Fastball: A mid-90s fastball that often touches 96 mph, this is the best offering for Iriarte. His fastball has good late movement and jumps on hitters.

Slider: His third best pitch is slider but that is mostly because of lack of consistency. Watching Iriarte, all his pitches have good break including his slider, but he needs to locate them for strikes.

Changeup: The second-best pitch for Iriarte, his changeup has great late fade. His changeup runs away from left-handed hitters and when it’s working it just keeps fading with plus movement.

Biggest Concerns: Durability and command. The lack of size could be tough on Iriarte for a full season of starting, combined with the average command there is still some improvement needed.

Conclusion: Iriarte is a fun pitcher to watch who oozes confidence when on the mound. He ended the season with Double-A San Antonio last season where he struck out 51 batters in 29.1 innings. The Padres will most likely send him to Double-A to start 2024 but we could see him in San Diego by the All-Star break.

ETA: July 2024

 

Adam Mazur, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/180)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	AA	96	2.81	1.19	22.8%	4.3%

Overview: A 2022 2nd-round pick, Mazur reached Double-A in his first full season. Mazur throws the kitchen sink at hitters with 4 different offerings. A fastball that lives in the mid-90s with good sink, curveball, changeup, and the best weapon he has, his slider. Plus command allows Mazur to limit the damage against him.

Fastball: Mazur threw a fastball that sat in the low to mid-90s but had an uptick in velocity and now sits in the upper 90s. Good break on this pitch, paired with his velocity gives it the potential to be a plus offering.

Curveball: His weakest pitch, Mazur throws an upper 70s/low 80s curve that is more of a change of eye-level pitch.

Slider: The best pitch in his arsenal, Mazur features a plus mid to high 80s slider with plus movement. This is the strikeout pitch for Mazur that allows him to have close to a strikeout per inning.

Changeup: Mazur throws a mid-80s changeup that is used like his curveball as a change of pace pitch. Just like his curve, this has a chance to be an average secondary.

Biggest Concerns: Secondary stuff. Mazur has a good slider and fastball, but his changeup and curveball are a little raw. If those two pitches add consistency, Mazur can reach #3 starter potential.

Conclusion: Mazur has the path to being a #3-4 starter with the potential to achieve more with his good command and improved stuff. The Padres pushed Mazur to Double-A in his first full season and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get a good look in 2024 spring training.

ETA: July 2024

 

Ryan Bergert, RHP (Double-A, 6’1/210)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	11	0.00	0.27	37.8%	0%
2022	A+	103.1	5.84	129	27.3%	8.9%
2023	AA	105.2	2.73	126	29.2%	10.7%

Overview: A breakout in 2023, Bergert pitched to a 2.73 ERA with 126 strikeouts in 105.2 innings between High-A and Double-A. The 23-year-old throws a fastball in the mid-90s with a mid-80s slider as his best offering. The curve and changeup both need a little improvement but profile as solid pitches.

Fastball: His second best pitch, Bergert throws a fastball that sits at 94 mph but can touch 96. Movement makes this pitch another strikeout pitch so far at lower levels.

Curveball: Berget has a curve right now that is an average offering that at times shows potential to be above average.

Slider: His best strikeout pitch and best pitch in general, Bergert has a slider that can be an above-average pitch. The movement is there, consistency and command are all that is needed to make this pitch above average.

Changeup: Like his curve, his changeup is more average for now and is most likely slightly behind his curve in terms of stuff.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Bergert walked 42 batters in 103.1 innings in 2022 and 46 batters in 105.2 innings in 2023. Bergert threw 5-6 innings regularly, but the walk numbers are still the biggest concern.

Conclusion: Bergert has mid to back-end starter potential. After the dominant display in 2023, only allowing 77 hits in 105.2 innings, a case can be made for #3 starter potential. Look for the Padres to challenge Bergert in 2024.

ETA: July 2024

 

Robby Snelling, LHP (Double-A, 6’3/210)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	AA	103.2	1.82	1.12	28.4%	8.2%

Overview: Snelling had the best full-season debut for a prospect in 2023, bursting onto the scene with a sub-2 ERA and reaching Double-A at just 19 years old. A large presence on the mound at 6’3 210 pounds, Snelling aggressively throws downhill when he’s on the mound.

Fastball: Snelling is a big kid at 6’3, 210 which allows him to consistently work at 94/95 mph with the potential to hit the upper 90s. Great velocity for a young lefty, Snelling has an above-average fastball.

Slider: The best pitch for the young lefty, Snelling has a plus slider that works in the low to mid-80s. At times it can lose its shape, but Snelling is still developing as a pitcher and it’s his best pure pitch.

Changeup: His weakest pitch, Snelling is still working on his changeup and rarely uses it as a strikeout pitch. When he did throw it, hitters often didn’t expect and swung through it with an aggressive swing.

Biggest Concerns: Third pitch and command/location. Watching Snelling pitch, a lot of the pitches were over the plate but because his slider is so good, they were swing and misses. The development of his changeup as well as learning how to become a pitcher are crucial to making Snelling a frontline starter.

Conclusion: An impressive professional debut for Snelling has made him one of the biggest rising prospects in baseball. He has a chance to become a #2 starter if he can improve the changeup and command. Regression is most likely coming in 2024 as Snelling will be tested in 2024 at just 20 years old.

ETA: September 2024

 

Austin Krob, LHP (High-A, 6’3/205)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	4.1	10.38	1.85	17.4%	8.7%
2023	A+	109.1	2.72	1.34	26.4%	9.1%

Overview: Another Padre with a breakout year in 2023, Krob established himself as a starter between Low-A and High-A. A bit on the older side for a prospect, now 24 years old, Krob should report to Double-A to begin his 2024 campaign.

Fastball: More of a command pitch in the low 90s, Krob throws his fastball to get weak contact or get ahead in the count.

Curveball: A high 70s breaking ball, Krob doesn’t throw this pitch as much because it is his weakest pitch.

Slider: His second-best pitch, Krob has a mid-80s slider that has good break. This pitch plays well against left-handed hitters.

Changeup: The best and most consistent pitch Krob throws, his change is mid-80s like his slider but plays well with that pitch as it has good opposite fade.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Krob lacks the overpowering stuff to make himself a strikeout pitcher despite totaling 124 in 109.1 innings in 2023. Krob profiles as an inning-eating back-end starter for now.

Conclusion: Good sink on his fastball and good size at 6’3, 205 pounds gives Krob a great opportunity to pitch in the back end of a rotation. Spot starts are a big possibility in 2024 before Krob gets a full look as a starter in the Majors.

ETA: July 2024

 

San Francisco Giants

Kyle Harrison, LHP (MLB, 6’2/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	98.2	3.19	1.40	35.7%	11.8%
2022	AA	113	2.71	1.13	39.8%	10.5%
2023	MLB	67.2	4.52	1.48	36.2%/23.8%	15.9%/7.5%

IT’S 10 FOR KYLE HARRISON!!!

What a home debut for the Giants stud lefty! pic.twitter.com/JQtKckfycc

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 29, 2023

Overview: Elite strikeout numbers at every stop, the question with Harrison was always his command. 2021 and 2022 were slightly high and in 2023 Harrison fell victim to the worst walk percentage in his professional career at 15.9%.  Three plus pitches allow Harrison to rack up the strikeouts as he’s accrued 452 in 279.1 minor league innings.

Fastball: The best pitch that Harrison throws is a mid to high 90s fastball that draws plus swing and miss numbers. A plus pitch, the fastball will allow Harrison to rack up the strikeouts, but he’ll need to keep his command in check. His fastball was sitting 94/95 in his MLB home debut and was his main strikeout pitch against the Cincinnati Reds.

Slider: His second-best offering is the low 80s slider that has nasty break. Harrison made Elly De La Cruz look silly on this pitch during his 11-strikeout game on August 28^th.

Changeup: Harrison mixes in a good changeup that does its job and keeps hitters off balance. He can use this pitch as a strikeout pitch as well but it’s not currently on the same level as his other two offerings.

Biggest Concerns: Command. There is no question that Harrison has ace potential but the regression in already poor command will limit him. Harrison has been prone to the long ball as well, giving up 8 home runs in his first 29.2 MLB innings.

Conclusion: Walks and command are the toughest pitching prospects to get behind, but Harrison is still 22 years old and already debuted in the Majors. Expect Harrison to get a full workload at the Major League level in 2024. Harrison has the potential to be Blake Snell if it all comes together.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Carson Whisenhunt, LHP (Double-A, 6’3/209)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	7.2	0.00	0.91	46.7%	3.3%
2023	AA	58.2	2.45	1.02	35.3%	9.8%

Overview: A solid three-pitch mix, Whisenhunt gets most of his outs from his nasty changeup. His mid-90s fastball has enough movement to keep hitters from squaring it up. At 6’3, 209 pounds there’s a chance for a velocity jump in his fastball.

Fastball: A low to mid-90s fastball, Whisenhunt is 6’3 and 209 so he may be able to see a velocity jump. If the consistent jump in velocity doesn’t happen, Whisenhunt has still hit 95 mph with his heater.

Curveball: His third offering is a high 70s curve that he hasn’t needed so far. If Whisenhunt develops his curveball to be an above-average pitch, he’s looking at #2 starter potential behind Kyle Harrison in San Francisco for years to come.

Changeup: The best pitch Whisenhunt throws is his plus changeup with excellent movement. There’s a chance this is a plus-plus pitch already with the amount of swing and misses he gets.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Not too much about Whisenhunt concerns me, maybe his ceiling and command but they are minor concerns currently. 23 walks in 58.2 innings isn’t ideal but his first full season was a huge success.

Conclusion: Whisenhunt is very advanced, and hitters weren’t much of an issue even at the Double-A level in 2023. The Giants could give Whisenhunt a chance to win a rotation spot when spring training starts in 2024.

ETA: June 2024

 

Mason Black, RHP (Triple-A, 6’3/230)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A+	112	3.21	1.17	29.4%	7.8%
2023	AAA	123.2	3.71	1.21	30.3%	10.2%

Overview: Another starter with a big frame, Black is 6’3 and 230 pounds, giving him plus velocity on his fastball. The lack of a third pitch could lead him to a reliever role, but he should get the chance to start in the Majors first.

Fastball: Mason Black has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s with good movement. If he needs to move to the bullpen this pitch will play very well and most likely sit in the upper 90s in shorter stints.

Slider: His best pitch, Black has a devastating slider that makes right-handed hitters look foolish. He can mix this in with his fastball and get most hitters to swing and miss those two alone. Black gets a lot of ugly swings on this pitch and when hitters sit on it, he’s able to throw his fastball by them.

Changeup: His third pitch is his rarely used changeup, mostly because he doesn’t need it. If he develops this pitch, Black will most certainly stick as a starter.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Like Harrison and Whisenhunt, Black has great stuff, but the biggest issue is his ability to throw strikes. Black saw his walk percent jump when he was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A in 2023, which raises concerns for a jump to the MLB level.

Conclusion: Mason Black is most likely to get a shot to crack the 2024 rotation before teammate Carson Whisenhunt, but both are likely to get a good look. If he doesn’t crack the rotation, Black should be the first to be called upon if an MLB starter gets injured.

ETA: June 2024

 

Hayden Birdsong, RHP (Double-A, 6’4/215)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	11.2	3.09	1.11	47.9%	6.3%
2023	AA	100.2	3.31	1.22	34.9%	10.3%

Overview: A 6th-round pick in 2022, Birdsong has been solid to start his professional career. A 3.28 ERA across 112.1 minor league innings with a stunning 172 strikeouts has made Birdsong one of the Giants’ best pitching prospects. Birdsong has a good fastball combined with 3 average pitches with a slider that flashes above average.

Fastball: A mid to high 90s fastball is the best offering Birdsong has and was able to throw it past younger competition to start 2023. His fastball is either his best or second-best pitch depending on how his curve looks that day.

Curveball: Arguably his best pitch, Birdsong throws a nasty curve with a lot of late break. This works well in tandem with his fastball to get most hitters to swing and miss for strike three.

Slider: His slider is a mid-80s horizontal breaking pitch that is developing like his changeup for an average pitch.

Changeup: A low 80s changeup, Birdsong has shown this could be an average pitch if he locates it consistently.

Biggest Concerns: Command. In his first full season starting, Birdsong saw his walk rate jump to 10.3%. Birdsong only allowed 79 hits in his 100.2 innings during the 2023 season, so the 44 walks didn’t hurt him. As Birdsong was promoted, the hits against started to get closer to 1 per inning, which is why his Double-A success wasn’t as great as the lower levels.

Conclusion: The Giants seem to be developing Birdsong as a starter and it was a good first full season. Birdsong will most likely start the 2024 season at Double-A, with a fresh arm we could see the walks and hits against regress to look more like his Low-A and High-A numbers.

ETA: August 2024

 

Landon Roupp, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/205)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	8	2.25	0.88	45.2%	3.2%
2022	AA	107.1	2.60	1.01	35.2%	8.6%
2023	AA	31	1.74	1.00	35%	7.5%

Roupp there it is ?

Landen Roupp ends the day with seven strikeouts over four innings of work pic.twitter.com/nHCSyheDoF

— Richmond Flying Squirrels (@GoSquirrels) June 11, 2023

Overview: Roupp broke out in 2022 as he totaled 152 strikeouts in 107.1 innings with a 2.60 ERA. Roupp has done a great job in his minor league career limiting hits against him with just 99 in 146.1 innings. Roupp is 25 years old and should be pushed in spring training or early on in 2024 to see if he can throw meaningful innings for the Giants at the MLB level.

Fastball: A low to mid-90s fastball, Roupp throws his fastball more as a sinker providing weak contact. His third-best pitch, Roupp has some two-seam sink action to it which he throws backdoor to right-handed hitters often.

Curveball: Playing off his slider, Roupp throws a plus curveball that moves horizontally like his slider but has plenty of vertical break as well. This causes hitters to guess which off-speed is coming giving Roupp another clear advantage.

Slider: A nasty pitch, Roupp gets a ton of horizontal movement on his slider. He isn’t afraid to throw this pitch as a backdoor slider to lefties and he commands it well.

Changeup: His weakest pitch, Roupp rarely throws his changeup but it could end up being an average offering due to his good movement.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Roupp has a plus curveball with a slider that flashes above average which could play up even more in short stints. If starting doesn’t pan out, he could switch to a long relief role of 2-4 innings.

Conclusion: Most likely a back-end rotation pitcher, Roupp has the upside with his strikeouts to be a solid #4 starter. If his other pitches don’t develop that’s most likely where he’s headed but the potential is there.

ETA: July 2024

 

Graphic adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)