Top 200 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025

Opening Weekend SP Streamers

Why draft a 4/5th rotation-spot SP who will likely be on the waiver wire when you can draft someone who has a start opening weekend? You can gain an early advantage drafting an opening weekend SP, see if it’s worth a hold, then moving to your other options who will make their first start in the second series of the season.

• White Sox vs. LAA – Could mean Sean Burke or Noah Shultz turn
• Rockies @ TBR – Just kidding
• Angels @ CHW – Pay attention to this rotation in the spring. A quick stream of Tyler Anderson if he’s their Opening Day arm could turn into two starts (@STL) or more. Maybe test the waters with José Soriano, too.
• Marlins vs. PIT – If Edward Cabrera steals the show in the spring, he could make for a fun “Let’s just see if he actually has control” start.
• Pirates @ MIA – This is likely Skenes, Keller, Jones. I wouldn’t go after Keller, while the latter two will be drafted.
• Rays vs. COL – Likely three of McShane, Springs, Baz, Bradley, and Pepiot, though a Free Agent could displace this. After Shane McClanahan, I’m not sure the order.
• Dodgers vs. DET – Oh how I wonder what the Dodgers rotation will be. If there’s a Toby type here (somehow), consider it for a cheap Win.
• Athletics @ SEA – The Mariners hosted a questionable offense for most of the year + T-Mobile Park increased strikeouts by roughly 25%. Maybe Joey Estes adds a tick or two of velocity?

Poor 4th/5th SP Schedules

If you’re drafting an arm to “Take a flier”, make sure you actually want to start him in his first outing. You do not want to have deadweight on your bench for the first ten days of the season!

• Diamondbacks @ NYY – I sure hope Ryne Nelson is the #3, while Eduardo Rodriguez may be a fool’s errand.
• Atlanta @ LAD – If Max Fried walks, I wonder how this pans out. Steer clear of Grant Holmes or AJ Smith-Shawver if they have one of those final spots.
• Red Sox @ BAL – I’m not sure how this rotation will shape up. This could be Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, etc. and I’m curious if they will demand our attention in the spring.
• Guardians @ SDP – This does make me a little more tepid on Joey Cantillo.
• Rockies @ PHI – As if.
• Dodgers vs. ATL – Either Bobby Miller has it or not. If we’re feeling great out of camp, we’re likely not thinking about this.
• Yankees vs. ARI – I don’t think this is enough to stop Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil.
• Giants @ HOU – For those hoping Landen Roupp finds his footing, you can wait until he proves it first.
• Rangers @ CIN – This could be Kumar Rocker and/or Jack Leiter. Unless they are getting all the hype during the spring without volatility, they may be an avoid early on.

At first glance, it doesn’t seem like this strategy is all too helpful for 2025. That said, offenses will change, rotations will shift, and spring will bring new excitement. Refer to this table in March.

Alright, let’s get to it now. Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

Read The Notes

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about my thought process and why I’m ranking guys in a certain way.
• These blurbs are (supposed to be) quick hits and you can expect longer, detailed breakdowns with skills tables & 2025 projections during my team-by-team articles (starting in December) where I cover every starting pitcher for 2025. These are Early Access articles exclusive for PL Pro subscribers, as they are the same blurbs that will be featured for free in my Top 400 SP Rankings when they published in February.
• Remember, these are my early thoughts and I’m looking forward to solidifying my 2025 outlook across the next five months. I often shift my weights and opinions during the winter and I want to preface once again how these rankings will not match what you get in February.
• Seriously. Read the notes.

Tier 1 – AGA

These are the rare few who are expected to go 6+ each start with all-around production each night. Some have more Win value than Strikeout value but are the clear studs among the landscape.

1. Tarik Skubal (DET) – His changeup was far better than I expected and even without an overwhelming SwStr on his four-seamer, I undervalued how effective a proper sinker + four-seamer mix can be. It’s a changeup-league if you’re a LHP and after a workhorse season, Skubal is the clear target at the top.

2. Paul Skenes (PIT) – You want fun? This is fun. It’s too bad he’s on the Pirates, but at least they’ll let him go 6+ frames consistently. He’s the real deal.

3. Garrett Crochet (CHW?) – Crochet is absurd. His four-seamer is one of the hardest to hit in the majors, especially with a cutter that looks identical out of the hand. His ability to find the zone is fantastic, the extension is elite, and now he’s adding a sinker to the mix that forces batters to guess one of three fastballs over the plate. The biggest concern is team, though I’m expecting him to get dealt after the fiasco at the deadline. He’s a stud. Sidenote: The White Sox have already come out to say that they intend to trade Crochet this off-season. START BELIEVING.

4. Zack Wheeler (PHI) – You likely won’t get as many strikeouts as Skubal or Skenes, but the track record is too dang consistent. Wheeler is fresh off his best season, too.

5. Corbin Burnes (FA) – I was initially down on Burnes, but he had a cutter renaissance in the second half, reducing velocity slightly for plenty more drop, which allowed him to get the pitch low once again. I expect that tweak to stick and the strikeout rate to comfortably sit above 25% once again.

Tier 2 – Ripped Aces

All of these arms have injury dings against them (some more than others), but on a per-inning basis, they are as good as those in the top tier, if not better in some cases.

6. Jacob deGrom (TEX) – I wonder how many people are actually planning on drafting deGrom this high in drafts. He’s going to get injured! Yes, he likely is. And he also has a fully repaired elbow + showed its health by sitting 97/98 mph in three games in September. His stuff is just as filthy as pre-injury (PLVs are off the charts, once again) and I have to ask y’all – if deGrom is healthy and dominating in mid-April, are you really going to value him below than those in Tier 3? Value now is 3x better than value later. That’s my golden rule of fantasy. Stop thinking about what might happen later and go get the thing that helps you now with the most assurance. And who knows? Maybe he’ll actually be healthy more than those in the first tier. Wouldn’t that be something.

7. Shane McClanahan (TBR) – I don’t know where I stand on this thought: Are pitchers coming back from TJS healthier than those who are not? After all, their elbow is fresh and repaired, while the rest of the league is suffering from a stark increase of TJS appointments. I don’t think there’s a decisive argument to the contrary, which leads me to believe we should be aggressively drafting McShane for 2025. Yes, the Rays will surely play it safer than other organizations with three more years of team control (well, two before the inevitable trade, right?), though we see it every year – the training wheels eventually come off and 150 IP is the new 200 IP. The skills are phenomenal – his changeup took over (LHP with changeups are WHAT’S UP), his heater is upper 90s, and he has two great breaking balls. McShane is the pitcher y’all wish you had on your teams.

8…? Shohei Ohtani (LAD) – Ever heard of him? You know he still pitches, right? His biggest weakness is the heater – its low iVB and decent HAVAA mixed with wonky location have depressed the effect of its 96+ mph velocity and near seven feet of extension – and with his sweeper as his main offering, the cutter will have to step up once again against LHP to replicate his elite 2023 campaign. I wouldn’t be shocked if he worked to push the cutter above 90 mph and featured it more aggressively to LHP than the four-seamer, raising the pitch to 35%+ usage in the year ahead. Also, 4th percentile hiLoc% on fastballs despite seven feet of extension?! GET THAT DANG THING TO THE LETTERS. After Ohtani, there few arms capable of a 30%+ strikeout rate, and the ceiling of ratios + Wins thrust him to the second tier. SIDENOTE: I was talking to some smart people and it’s possible the Dodgers will prevent Ohtani from entering the rotation until May/June in order to ensure he has enough left in the tank for a potential (repeat) World Series run. Without any official source for this, I’m leaving Ohtani here, but you may want to lower him based on that risk. The chance of that are not as high as Strider/Glasnow in my view.

Tier 3 – AGA with Questions

These arms do not have sub 3.00 ERA, sub 1.00 WHIP, 30%+ strikeout upside aking to those in the first two tiers (or not the absurd floors of Wheeler and Burnes). You’re going to get a large variety of opinions on what these rankings should be across the winter and don’t get too hung up on one vs. another. They are all more similar than you think.

9. Michael King (SDP) – I really wanted to put King at #6 in the top tier, but he’s simply not Wheeler yet. I believe he should be that rock for years to come with an excellent feel for his arsenal, becoming one of the rare pitchers who can throw front-hip sinkers to LHB at will. You’re going to hear me say “We should treat King like we treated Kirby last off-season” for the next six months as King is the representation of the 180-200 IP arm who has a great ratio floor and a ceiling of 28%+ strikeout rate on a winning ballclub. That’s the mold that can be underrated entering drafts and I see King sharing his crown with you next season.

10. Logan Gilbert (SEA) – I have so many frustrations with Gilbert and despite all of them – locating fastballs low (giving batters more time to catch up) despite having the best extension in the majors and failing to find a consistent #3 pitch as the biggest pair – I can’t help but acknowledge his improvements that make for a great floor and potential ceiling above. The slider is an elite pitch he throws as much as half a time during a game, boasting 90th+ percentiles in strike rate, SwStr rate, and Str-ICR rate, with a 98th percentile PLV. Okay, it’s a stupid good slider. Just imagine if his fastball was used properly, too! With such a dominant slider, it should amplify the heater if he can go BSB at 96/97 mph and absurd extension. But nay, it returned a sub 10% SwStr rate. Meanwhile, he’s been experimenting with curves, splitters, and cutters, and I wonder if the real answer is a sinker, believe it or not. ANYWAY, Gilbert’s slider is here to stay with room to grow as a 200+ IP potential arm and that’s pretty dang cool. I just wish he had slightly better overall command and a most trustworthy arsenal.

11. George Kirby (SEA) – I’m conflicted with Kirby. Throughout the season, I didn’t see enough development in his arsenal to get excited. His slider focus certainly increased in the second half, but the pitch itself wasn’t the offering we wanted, failing to earn a 15% SwStr rate against RHB (yikes). The splitter was introduced as a LHB weapon and was horrible at converting strikeouts with a poor putaway rate. But his fastballs…they are pretty dang good. His four-seamer returned the highest SwStr in the majors, matching his 2023 clip over 17%. And I know that sounds absurd, but it’s because batters also swing at it 61% of the time – 99th percentile (You smart readers will now ask Well, what’s its whiff rate? That was an elite 29% at 96th percentile, so that’s cool.). And I dig the sinker he mixes in-between to generate outs and confuse batters in the zone, but it’s clearly not enough. Huh? You see, batters hunt for that four-seamer and it led to fourteen home runs off the pitch in 2024. That’s the issue Kirby needs to solve and he didn’t quite get there in 2024. The solution was more sliders and a new splitter for LHB, but they weren’t enough and now we’re wondering if he’ll get there. I want to say yes – Eno certainly believes Kirby will find a way – and despite my feelings throughout the year of “he just doesn’t do quite enough”, I should recognize Kirby as the ideal mold of volume and floor with believable strikeout upside if he can tweak the slider. FINE. That 8.5 hit per nine can come down plenty if he gets that slider properly cooking so hitters aren’t just sitting heaters and the strikeouts can eclipse 200 with his absurd volume. Let’s do it.

12. Cole Ragans (KCR) – PEW PEW PEW. Boy am I lucky this one worked out, eh? Y’all would have shipped pitchforks to the PL headquarters and my neighbors would wonder when I got into farming. You may be surprised to see Ragans this low after coming through with 223 strikeouts in 186.1 IP. The answer is simple – his “unicorn” arsenal fell apart. His changeup is studly, but the fastball took a step back as the season continued, from 96/97 mph to 94/95, while the slider and cutter were awfully inconsistent. I was expecting growth in the latter two and instead saw incessant mistakes that allowed for 42%+ ICR rates on both for the year. I’m not saying he can’t get them back, I simply recognize that Ragans may be inconsistent once again, without a 14/15%+ SwStr heater to push him over the edge. What about the curve? Ehhhh, that’s never going to be a reliable #3. A fun pitch that appears at times, but not a 20%+ usage offering that disappears entirely for starts here and there. He needs the cutter and slider.

13. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) – I’m still trying to figure out Yamamoto. On the plus side, he should be able to go regularly in 2025 (possibly on a six-man as the Dodgers try so desperately to keep their rotation healthy for October. Again.) and the second season is often better for all getting acclimated to the environment of MLB play. I still wonder how much I believe in the arsenal, though. I expected a better heater (sub 15″ of iVB and middling extension at 95 mph) that didn’t take advantage of its best asset (1.5 HAVAA is great) as he held a 3rd percentile hiLoc%, catalyzing a horrible 6% SwStr rate. Yeah. However, it was a bit of the Gallen method, getting called strikes galore with the pitch, setting up the deadly 20%+ splitter. The big difference between Yamamoto and Gausman or Imanaga is his third pitch, a curveball he features to both LHB and RHB that earns plenty of strikes, but does get hit harder than most breakers at a 43%+ ICR. I’m a major believer in a cutter becoming a fantastic bring pitch for Yamamoto, turning him into an elite version of Kodai Senga, and I wonder if that gets added. Expect 25-30% strikeouts, solid ratios, and Wins, but not the Top 5 SP ceiling a pitcher like King carries with a lower workload and fewer 7+ IP outings, if any.

14. Tyler Glasnow (LAD) – We legit have no idea what the condition of Glasnow is at this moment. When healthy, his slider is one of the best around, fueled by his elite extension and 96+ mph fastball. You can say he’s akin to deGrom, except we know deGrom is healthy at the moment…and deGrom is still better. Like Strider, we just have to wait for now. UPDATE 11/9: Welp, right after I submitted this article, we got clarity that Glasnow’s elbow is fully healed and he’ll be good to go for the season ahead. I find it harder to rank Glasnow than deGrom and McShane, if you can believe it. Glasnow had a career high 134 IP last year. CAREER HIGH. He also just had elbow problems and doesn’t have a newly repaired elbow and I envision McShane having more innings in the year ahead. deGrom? Call me crazy, but that’s a toss up given deGrom has a healthy elbow for the first time in a long time – remember, his missed time was mostly due to this nagging injury. That’s also ignoring how deGrom is still a better producer than Glasnow on a per start basis IMO. Ultimately, I decided to place Glasnow here in the middle of the third tier behind the 30% strikeout upside arms with value and ahead of those we expect to have a low quality-per-inning ceiling.

15. Roki Sasaki (FA) – Roki is stupid legit. He’s 23-years-old and throws 100 mph with a filthy splitter with solid control and pairs that deadly tandem with a slider that aims to keep strikes flowing. The major question is if he’ll be posted for 2025 or force us to wait another season. If he’s confirmed, I’d have him all the way up to #15-20. I’m not kidding, he is an absurdly special talent. However, I’m placing him here as I believe it weighs the clear AGA talent with the binary of “is he actually pitching this year” + he’d be starting out of the gate unlike Strider and friends. Not to mention, the Dodgers are the initial favorites to land him (COME ON) and that makes for a fantastic situation – a six-man rotation is totally fine to reduce the risk of injury. UPDATE 11/9: Roki has been confirmed to be posted and after watching more on Sasaki in Lance Brozdowski’s fantastic YouTube video, I’m slotting him here in the middle of Tier 3. His new 7′ of extension merged with 97 mph velocity reminds me of Garrett Crochet’s heater, though there is seemingly a touch worse control for the pitch in the zone. Additionally, Sasaki doesn’t have a consistent strike pitch outside of his four-seamer that Crochet has (the filthy cutter and sinker), which I hope he adds from whatever team he signs with, though the splitter is sure to obliterate batters consistently. Sasaki’s health isn’t pristine, either, after enduring an “arm injury” during the 2024 season, but I’m wagering that if as long as he passes the physical, he’s just as injury prone as any other arm. Sign. Me. UP.

16. Gerrit Cole (NYY) – Rankings in October are weird and I don’t know where I’ll land on Cole come March. On one hand, a “Down Year” that included returning from a dreaded elbow injury still returned a 3.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate. On the other, his four-seamer’s HAVAA has dropped from elite to pedestrian in two years, bringing its SwStr rate to middling levels, and his slider command was far from what it used to be. Cole without an overpowering fastball nor debilitating slider is not the Cole of old. Concern of his injury re-appearing aside (it’s baked in, too), should we expect Cole to regain both pitches’ form? Or is his curve and cutter emphasis worthwhile enough to return another 180+ IP season with production across the board?  It’s all too…weird. It’s generally best to chase upward trends, not redemption years in the front-half of your drafts.

17. Max Fried (FA) – As much as I keep trying to convince myself not to go after Fried, I remember that he hasn’t had an ERA or WHIP worse than 3.04/1.13 in four seasons since the start of 2020, save from 2024’s “fall” to 3.25/1.16. Hot dang that’s solid for a down year. He routinely struggles for the first few starts, then collects himself and cruises the rest of the way, armed with an array of pitches and excellent command. The downside? His forearm issues this year that held him back as he heads to Free Agency and could be starting for a club that limits him more often with a worse offense. In addition, the changeup that created a 26% strikeout rate in 2023 disappeared in 2024, falling to a 13% SwStr rate from a near 20% rate the previous two years. It failed to land armside as often, reducing its O-Swing massively, and making it become less of a two-strike option and more of a count-starter. Ah, fewer strikeouts. I get it. Yep. I’m going to believe it returns in the year ahead, helping Fried reclaim another stellar ratio season (he won’t go 8% walk rate again, y’all) as long as he’s healthy. There are fewer safer ratio arms out there than Fried and with Fried getting all the attention in Free Agency, I’m betting his health isn’t enough of a concern to overlook his talent.

18. Joe Ryan (MIN) – His season ended sooner than expected with a Grade-2 Teres strain, which should have him all set for the spring without a hitch and ready for another step forward as a proper ace. Ryan’s skills improved this season with nearly two ticks more velocity and a larger focus on his sweeper, helping his heater return fewer hits (Hello 0.99 WHIP!), while the sweeper granted more support for the volatile splitter. Give Ryan one more season to figure out his supporting cast (slider? cutter? changeup? Improved splitter?) and he has legit Top 10 upside. I had an urge to rank him as high as #12, but I can’t ignore his struggles to find that stellar #2 pitch, while the four-seamer’s SwStr fell sharply against RHB – blame the splitter’s lower strike rate that forced more heaters into the zone. Without that truly dominant alternative, I feel uncomfortable leaning into him more than others.

19. Bailey Ober (MIN) – You really should like Ober more. I won’t waste your time citing the first start of the season that inflated his ERA massively, but I will mention that those who believe Ober is destined to ruin your season with 3-4 nightmarish starts are overflowing the small sample. Those games are not only rare and few, but their extremity of 7+ ER are uncommon and a product of luck, not skills that are destined to repeat. Yes, it happened. No, it shouldn’t happen again. What you should care about is Ober’s growth in 2024. The foundation was still there – a fastball routinely painted upstairs (Bailey Oberizzi, after all) at elite extension that sets up a 98th percentile PLV changeup – but he added a cutter and improved his slider for 32% combined usage that landed gloveside consistently for strikes to help deal with RHB. The cutter also helped as a backdoor pitch to LHB and let the changeup feast. I just wish he threw a little harder but whatever. He just had a season with a 1.00 WHIP and 27% strikeout rate. The skills back it up and the only question are homers/the blowup games that created the 3.98 ERA. He’s stupid close to 180+ IP with a 3.00 ERA at the same marks on a winning team. You want Ober.

20. Aaron Nola (PHI) – Okay, I think I’ve figured it out. Nola’s absurd 2022 season with a 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 29% K rate had a few major differences. Fewer home runs. Sure, but why? His changeup was better and he attacked the zone far more often with his four-seamer. The former is solvable, but the latter? I don’t think that can return. My guess is batters shifted to chase heaters in 2023, propelling his aforementioned longball affinity, forcing a staggering shift of early four-seamer usage against RHB, merged with near 15 point drop in zone rate from 60% to 45% since 2022. There’s your CSW drop, your walk rate increase, and overall worse performance. But fewer HRs than 2023! Very true and we saw a 90 point improvement on his ERA from 2023 as a result. But peak Nola? Likely behind us. I see Nola being a rock for your squad with another 200 K season, many Wins, and a bit better fortune with his hit per nine as his changeup climbs out of a terrible 50% strike rate. Yikes. Oh I haven’t even told you its Putaway Rate. Roughly 20% is average, but the change? You know, the nullifier against LHB? 5.6% against LHB. It was bad, y’all. Expect better, while the cutter continues to improve, the curve is still elite, and his fastball approach clearly works (now with high heaters to squeeze more out of his elite HAVAA and extension! Yay!). It’s the floor with room for more. That’s an ace.

21. Pablo López (MIN) – What a dumb April and May that was. I remember Eno asking me “What’s wrong with PabLó?” on a mid-April episode of The Craft and I said “Naaaaah, he’s fine.” He wasn’t…until he was. Wow, such insight. In short, the sweeper was gone for a while, then he finally had the “grip it and rip it” mindset and it clicked in early June with a 14 K game against the Athletics (I gotta eradicate “Oakland” from my vernacular. Sigh.) – PabLó boasted a 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 26% K rate in 17 starts beginning with that June 23rd outing. But that’s still not elite and you cherry-picked that run! Absolutely fair. The issue beforehand was sweepers, i.e. dealing with RHB. However, there’s still a gap in performance against LHB, with his four-seamer returning 18% SwStr vs. RHB, but just 8% vs. LHB. The changeup isn’t the slowball of old and needs another offering with the sweeper + curve acting as surprises, not consistent weapons. I wonder if he gets a cutter…In the end, it’s still a great foundation with 180 IP in each of his last three seasons, Wins in his favor, and 234/198 strikeouts in his last two years. His ability to go deeper into games than his contemporaries – 25% of his starts were 7 IP or more – shouldn’t be overlooked as he could push 200+ IP if he’s able to solve his LHB problem.

22. Chris Sale (ATL) – Sale is a perfect example of the discussion in deGrom’s blurb: We all anticipated Sale to get hurt during the year and it simply…didn’t happen. And surprise! There’s a Top 5 SP for the year getting drafted outside the Top 30 SP because of assumed health questions. Meanwhile, so many others who were “SAFE” got hurt or had worse floors than expected. Take chances! Make mistakes! And stop putting so much weight on expected injury! That’s not the line. Close enough. As for Sale, he was both lucky and unlucky this year. Huh? His slider allowed just one longball in 1,100+ thrown (lol), while his four-seamer held a horrific .415 BABIP. Maybe batters went fastball hunting and ignored the heater? Maybe, but that didn’t work now, did it? I struggled ranking Sale given how this season felt very much like a peak for his health and squeezing the most out of his slider and fastball, especially without the changeup at its best. I originally had him in the second tier and even writing this I thought it was too high – you cannot expect “more of the same” after he had his peak season at age 35. I can’t bank on that.

Tier 4 – AGA In The Globe

These guys should be aces, but their warts make us concerned they will miss the mark over a full year. I hope all of them make me look really dumb in a good way.

Tier 5 – At A Premium

Now we have the elites of the sub-aces. The guys who look ready to be SP #2 and highly productive even if they aren’t true AGA arms. And that’s totally fine with us. A mix of floor arms and risky potential.

27. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) – He’s really good y’all. Mr. Crescendo has nearly all the makings of the ideal starter. He throws 96 mph, features six pitches with at least three comfortably featured against LHB/RHB alike, throws strikes (60%+ on ALL pitches, even when split LHB/RHB!), and earned whiffs at a near 15% SwStr rate while pitching for a winning ballclub. What’s the problem? Outside of the concern that he just threw 165+ frames after barely pitching prior (I personally am not concerned about that workload for 2025.) His four-seamer gets hit, mostly by LHB. Its terrible vertical break returned a 44% ICR and 12.1% mistake rate (oh dear, that’s horrific) against lefties and I’m concerned the pitch doesn’t improve in his sophomore year. It’s possible he turns away from the pitch more in 2025 to favor the cutter more than 14% of the time (does it always have to be a strike, though? 79% strikes is a bit too high, Spencer), though I can’t shake the concept that Schwellenbach’s small sample was an overperformance with more hits and walks coming his way in the future. However, he shot through the Atlanta system in a heartbeat and it’s very likely we haven’t seen the final form yet, either. His array of pitches with a baseline 96 mph velocity and knack for spin on a team that will let him go 6+ IP every game is too dang good to pass up.

37. Sonny Gray (STL?) – You forgot Gray had a 30% strikeout rate this season, didn’t you. The Cardinals have expressed their openness to deal Sonny this off-season, which is all but confirming he pitches elsewhere in 2025 (do you recall a time that was announced in October and the pitcher wasn’t dealt?), and regardless of landing spot, Sonny is your prototypical Holly. He’s unlikely to ruin your ratios completely with stretches of excellence (2.81 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 32% strikeout rate in his first 83.1 IP this year) balanced by stretches of pain when he falls out of rhythm (5.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP across the following ten starts). In the end, his breakers are great while his overall efficiency prevents him for tallying a true workhorse season with a walk rate that’s likely to climb back up and typical hit prevention. That’s a Holly, y’all.

Tier 6 – Cherry Bomb

40. Freddy Peralta (MIL) – The former king of extension and attack angle is not what he used to be. His glorious 7.3 feet of extension of old has fallen to just 6.7 – above average but generally pedestrian – while he’s raised his arm angle to go from an absurdly elite 1.8 to excellent at 1.5 HAVAA. The product? A three point drop in CSW to a poor 27% clip on the heater along with plenty more hard contact. The slider took a step back as well, returning just 55% strikes against RHB (no secondary hit 60% against LHB). It culminated in a massive 40%+ ICR for an arm reliant on weak contact (sub 46% for three straight seasons!) and the glory of 2023’s second half seemed distant if not for Peralta’s 200 total strikeouts, marking his third season in four of fanning at least 195. Wait, then why are you ranking him so low? Because this will be difficult. Tough. Painful. Peralta and Professor Chaos are sure to reunite during the year and I’m not expecting the 1.20+ WHIP to be a distant memory, nor the elevated HR or walk rates. That 2023 second half saved him – 2024 wasn’t a single blip. And without the extension of old, it’ll be more challenging to make it all work.

41. Hunter Brown (HOU) – I’ve had a mixed opinion of Hunter throughout the year, featuring a wide range of approaches that I interpreted as searching for answers and “allowing the paint to flow down the canvas” as he would lean into whatever was working that day. By the end of the year, I started to grasp what was going on – his sinker was absurdly good at limiting hard contact against right-handers and he adjusted to feature the pitch more once he began throwing 96 mph at the start of June. It allowed his four-seamer to be more of a whiff pitch and mask his lack of dominating secondary (I wish that cutter or slider did more), while the curveball was effective against left-handers. In addition, after a tough month or two, Brown shifted to remove the slider for the hard cutter against RHB, going from a 50% ICR offering with few whiffs to 27% ICR with similar whiffs. Absurd. I love that cutter and hope it opens the door for a new slider to get whiffs next season, and I’d expect him to perform closer to his performance from May 22nd onward – a 31.5% overall ICR with a 2.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate. That’s the good stuff.

42. Carlos Rodón (NYY) – Rodón’s second half was far better once he settled in with his changeup and displayed the ability to alter his pitch mix, though I still lack the full confidence that he can utilize at least three pitches consistently throughout a full season. If he can continue to mix the slowball well with his heater to RHB, we may see an uptick toward 30% usage with its 25%+ SwStr rate (incredible), which would also help keep RHB off a four-seamer that allowed 45% ICR last year. I like his situation in NYC, with a potential workhorse season on the horizon merged with 25%+ strikeouts, creating room to grow once again with the volume and Wins you’re chasing. If only we could bank on his floor…

43. Spencer Strider (ATL) – I don’t know how healthy the fella is. I’ve seen people assume he’s going to be starting before the start of May given he underwent the internal brace procedure (not typical TJS), but I traditionally give a minimum of 14 months for an expectation to return, which would put Strider around June 1st. We’ll know far more in March when you’re actually drafting him and for now, I’ll take him right after all the high upside guys who are expected to start the season healthy.

44. Kodai Senga (NYM) – I initially had Senga higher in the ranks, before the triceps setback at the end of the season + overall “I’m not ready” in the playoffs has me concerned we won’t see a healthy spring training and delays before the season starts. If we do get Senga out of the gate, I’m excited for another season of cutters (so underrated!) and fastballs filling the zone, allowing his Ghost Fork to tempt batters incessantly. What?! Nick likes a splitter?! When splitters are the clear #3 pitch and can afford to live at 50-55% strikes, I love them. It’s a phenomenal strikeout pitch and should bolster a high quality of inning once again.

45. Ryan Pepiot (TBR) – The skills are there for Pepiot to be a stud. His four-seamer carries the vert we idolize (even with the uptick of iVB granted by Tropicana, which he won’t have next year…?), his changeup was an 80 grade offering by his MLB debut, and his slider has displayed the whiffability we need. The problem? His consistency. There are games where it doesn’t come together properly, before displaying the top-of-the-line talent in the next. The Rays limited him a touch in 2024 and I expect the training wheels to come off this season. This is 30% strikeout potential with legit ratios at his peak, with the floor being a frustrating arm you’re stuck enduring the bad for the great.

46. Gavin Williams (CLE) – I’ve called Williams the right-handed Garrett Crochet and I so badly want to stick by that. The comp comes from his elite extension over seven feet that amplifies his 96/97 mph four-seamer, and now that he’s begun leaning into a cutter, I can see him having the same effect as Crochet if he can pound both consistently over the plate. That’s the biggest question, though – can he do it with confidence next year with both offerings? Williams has the benefit of pitching for a winning team that will allow him to go six constantly + there is a curveball that wakes up for starts to become a legit breaker for both whiffs and strikes (but carries a 50% strike rate for the full year…yikes.). After the large delay at the beginning of the year, I get the sense that we’ve given up on Gavin, but the best is yet to come. He can get there.

47. Yusei Kikuchi (FA) – It was a journey of a season for Kikuchi and despite the narrative that the Astros “fixed” Kikuchi, I’m more inclined to lean that Kikuchi was already figuring out his feel by the trade deadline. In short, he understood the necessity for a LHP changeup, forced it a bit too much, and went back to four-seamer/slider with fewer curves than before. We need to give Kikuchi credit for his newfound ability to spot his four-seamer in the zone and generally upstairs more often as the season progressed, taking full advantage of his rare mix of both exceptional iVB and HAVAA. As long as he heads to a decent team (the Dodgers seem like a perfect fit), expect Kikuchi to look more like his second half self than the first.

48. Robbie Ray (SFG) – He’ll get you strikeouts, but the control! I dunno y’all. We didn’t get a clear picture of consistency this year + more injury and it’s a risky proposition. We see high strikeout + volatile arms each year that put us through the wringer, it’s possible he makes us feel warm and cozy early in the year, especially if the breakers are finding strikes. I don’t believe we’ll ever drop Robbie throughout the year and I lean in favor of value over detriment, but there’s more haze than with others.

49. Luis Gil (NYY) – His four-seamer is legit, the slider added more horizontal movement and became a stronger strike pitch, and his changeup…disappeared in the second half. If he can find that slowball again while getting another season under his belt that (hopefully) adds more precision inside the zone, Gil can be a 25%+ strikeout arm for a winning team. That’s kinda dope. I simply worry we’ll get an inconsistent arm we can’t trust and have a tough time deciding to hold or drop. So tempting though…

50. Hunter Greene (CIN) – I find it challenging to lean heavily into Greene’s breakout campaign. At the shallow level, his HOTEL was absurdly better than previous years – a nine point drop in HR/FB rate to 7% as the HR/9 went from 1.53 to 0.72 (What?!), his BABIP fell nearly 100 points from .342 to .239 (a 5.7 hits-per-nine is nigh impossible to replicate), and his LOB rate increased eight points to 80.5%. It was a product of a few changes with Greene, though I wouldn’t latch onto them as proper shifts that should invite a 97th percentile ICR rate after sitting below average previously. Greene’s splitter may have helped a touch to keep batters off the heater (a sub 14% putaway rate on the splitter is atrocious, though), but I’d warrant the higher arm angle that improved his iVB and limited horizontal ride as the catalyst for its drop in hard contact, while the slider’s emphasis on horizontal bend allowed Greene to induce more outs with the pitch, albeit likely not at a .198 BABIP and 27% ICR for another year. I could go on about Greene’s home park, his elbow injury, and still elevated walk rate to hammer the point home, but I have so many more pitchers to cover. Greene is still a two-pitch pitcher who had a peak season, bolstered by an eight-start stretch in the heart of the season of 6 ER in 50.2 IP. He was your standard 3.79 ERA and 1.17 WHIP prior. There you go.

51. Reynaldo López (ATL) – Have we ever underappreciated a 1.99 ERA season more than López’s 2024? 135.2 IP is not an insignificant amount and doing it with a 27% strikeout rate and 1.11 WHIP saved many fantasy seasons. And yet, here I am, ranking him far away from a rank embracing those numbers. López’s approach of four-seamer/slider against RHB isn’t inherently bad, nor is the addition of the curve against LHB. It’s his lack of an overwhelming heater mixed with a slider that failed to eclipse a 60% strike rate against either handedness – just 54% against LHB! – that has his sub 8% walk rate and…87% LOB rate getting the side eye from this fella. If I believed more in his heater as a whiff pitch or its ability to boast an above-average ICR rate with a 78% strike rate (the dude just pounded strikes in the zone and made batters guess if it were slider or heater), then I’d be more excited. Sadly, I think we see turmoil this year as López’s walks rise, fewer jams are escaped, and his lack of arsenal depth takes center stage.

52. Jack Flaherty (FA) – This ranking is absurdly low, isn’t it? However, let’s not look at the full season marks and instead focus on the 2024 journey. He wasn’t drafted in many fantasy leagues for a reason, showed promise early without ratio results, then burst for a few months as he found consistency locating both secondaries perfectly at the bottom of the zone while limiting mistake pitches with his four-seamer. It was a groove and it didn’t last the whole season – his time with the Dodgers mostly featured a far worse slider and I find it hard to lean into a pitcher with a questionable heater who needs his slider to be at its peak to give him a chance to be the same guy. I don’t expect Flaherty to be a drop in your leagues next year, but with so many arms with legit potential, it’s difficult to favor Flaherty’s small margin for error above them.

Tier 8 – The Frizzle Method

Now we get to the fun stuff. I rank upside far more than volume in 12-teamers once you get toward the mid-way point of your drafts since you should be planning to drop pitchers who are ineffective early in the season and utilize the waiver wire. These are some of my favorite upside plays who you can make relatively quick decisions about early in the season. As Ms. Frizzle would say it’s time to “Take Chances! Make mistakes! Get Messy!”

61. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) – Woodruff is returning from shoulder surgery and apparently he’s ready to go for next year. I may ultimately have him closer to Strider and Glasnow by March, though I have major concerns about his ability – shoulder surgery is far tougher of a hill to climb than TJS. We all know the ceiling if he returns in full (well, he has to be limited in some fashion, no?) and the best part about this is how easy of a decision it’ll be. If he’s not ready, you’ll be able to drop him quickly.

62. Ryne Nelson (ARI) – His fastball was stupid good inside the zone and it propelled Nelson in the second half. He hasn’t even hit his final form yet, either, as the cutter and slider are still a work in progress. Part of me wants to buy into Nelson finding those pitches from the onset of the season, while the other questions if his fastball can survive inside the zone so consistently once again.

63. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) – Does he have good enough command to keep it going throughout 2025? It was a ridiculously fun time at the end of the season for Arrighetti, but I wonder if the curve, sweeper, and cutter can be there consistently for him in 2025. Meanwhile, the four-seamer’s elite HAVAA doesn’t get all the support it needs from a sub 20th percentile HiLoc% which led to batters teeing off it whenever possible. Don’t forget, The Pasta Pirate was not a fun play for a long time before his late surge.

64. Drew Rasmussen (TBR) – Is he actually starting for the Rays? I sure hope so. They slowed down his recovery last year as a reliever, but if Rasmussen is back in the rotation, his mix of cutters and sliders are incredibly legit at limiting damage. And if he’s not starting? You drop him right away. It’s easy y’all – he’ll help your squads if he’s getting the volume and allow you to grab someone else if he’s not.

65. Dustin May (LAD) – Oh right! May was supposed to be back in the rotation over the summer but had to get surgery on his esophagus, if you can believe it. Now back from TJS and expected to be ready for the spring, why wouldn’t you want to chase May and his array of fastballs, curves, and cutters for a team desperate to find volume?

66. Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – Schmidt is good. Not elite, not terrible, but just really good. His feel for the cutter improved as the season went on, helping him deal with his LHB problems, while the curve, sweeper, and sinker all played their parts accordingly. He’ll go consistently for a strong Win team and provide a good baseline for your squads, likely bringing him up to the arms in the tier above before long. It may be a bit on the edge of worthwhile at times, though, especially if he isn’t nailing down his cutter feel.

67. Jeffrey Springs (TBR) – Springs was decent in his return from TJS, until he was placed on the IL for elbow fatigue in early September, where we haven’t heard a word since. I’d imagine surgery would have already taken place if his 2025 were in question, making me optimistic he’ll be starting for the Rays out of the gate, even if with some limitations along the way. His changeup is still absurd and my fingers are crossed his drop in velocity will return to normal after a proper off-season and ramp-up in the spring.

68. Reese Olson (DET) – I like Reese for the year ahead, but I wish I liked his four-seamer and sinker more. His slider has led the way with a changeup that mostly acts as a strong sidekick, but Olson’s four-seamer is not to be trusted, while the sinker can be hit when he doesn’t nail its spot armside. His relatively “low” rank is due to my concern that his ceiling is limited and he may not have more than the slider early on.

69. Jackson Jobe (DET) – I wasn’t as impressed with Jobe as I expected to be when we finally got his Triple-A and MLB statcast data. Low extension all around pulls down his 97 mph fastball, and the cutter was the only major weapon to speak of. That said, we may see a more complete Jobe as a starter in the spring and if he’s thrust into the Detroit rotation, I can’t resist a four-pitch arm with a whiff-friendly 97 mph fastball at the top.

70. Noah Schultz (CHW) – Schultz is a super legit southpaw (yes, the White Sox have another) and I’d be even more into him if he had any time at the Triple-A level (16 starts in Double-A last year). That said, his slider is filthy and he features mid-90s velocity while refusing to walk batters. He could be the talk of the town in March and April.

Tier 9 – Icing On The Plate

These are all similar to Tier 89 but are a step below the arms I’d actually chase in my drafts. Think of them as the post-dessert plate. You had your fill but you just can’t resist dipping your finger into the spilled icing for one last dive.

78. Bowden Francis (TOR) – What a weird run he had last year. There’s a thought that the addition of his splitter later in the season aided Francis and while it’s possible simply adding the option amplified the benefits of the four-seamer, the splitter on its own was bad. Low strike rates in concert with constant failure to putaway batters made the four-seamer the sole kid in town, and it was one of the more ridiculous in-zone pitches I’ve seen. No, we should not anticipate the pitch returning sub .200 BABIP marks next year, even if the 92 mph fastball has solid extension and great iVB. He’s not a complete pitcher, missing a truly dominant heater, and lacking a consistent secondary to tie the room together. For those wanting to consider Bowden, consider Bates Gavin Williams instead.

79. Grant Holmes (ATL) – Let’s say Fried heads to another team and Morton retires. That leaves Sale, Mr. Crescendo, ReyLó, and two vacant spots for a FA, and few great choices. Holmes could factor in as the SP #5 (they have to sign someone if not two for the sake of depth) and I don’t hate it. It’s a three-pitch mix of the ole Guardians’ playbook – two great breakers + one mediocre fastball for strikes. He wasn’t trusted to go 5+ innings constantly by the end of the year, but he generally came through and I can see more volume on the way if he’s given the chance early. Just a matter of ensuring both the slider and curve get strikes, while avoiding mistakes with the fastball.

80. Edward Cabrera (MIA) – I just can’t quit the guy. I watch him pitch and so often, it’s all there. Changeups are filthy. Curves for whiffs and strikes. Sliders down-and-gloveside (MOAR). Fastballs 96+ and finding the edges. Then there are other games when none of his pitches can eclipse a 60% strike rate. This likely a foolish ranking, but I wanted to at least showcase that the ceiling is there. Edward could show up in camp and flat-out dominate after finding the tweak to make him a consistent control arm. I’ve never felt his mechanics spoke to an “effectively wild” pitcher in the first place.

Tier 10 – The Player Rater Darlings

Tier 12 – Youthful Spirit

98. Nick Lodolo (CIN) – It makes all the sense that Lodolo has a healthy spring and finds himself in the rhythm of a proper Cherry Bomb to sit on your teams all year. He’s also displayed inconsistencies that make you wonder if he’s destined to be a headache and not worth the pain in draft season, even if he is worthwhile at the end of the year. There is 200 strikeout potential for a healthy year of starts every five days, while his 100th percentile horizontal break fastball mixed with a good breaking ball and changeup scream early Chris Sale…but does he have the command? The Win potential? The ability to avoid homeruns? And finally, a fastball that can sit 96 mph instead of 94 mph? The comps are easy to spot, but chasing the potential may not be a worthwhile gamble with many more options out there who are easier to determine as a success or failure early into the season.

99. Sean Burke (CWS) – I’ve certainly been vocal about Burke’s potential in September and he came through in his brief stint in the rotation for those needing late streams. As a draft pick in a 2025 12-teamer? Not great. His Win chance itself makes it hard to jump on board, let alone the ultra small sample size of command that was a bit of a struggle in his final outing. I do like his 95+ mph velocity with 7 ft of extension and 17+ iVB, paired with a vicious slider, but we’re not at Jared Jones levels of electricity and his curve is still not quite deadly enough to focus on Burke as something vastly different. We don’t know if he’ll even begin the year in the rotation (I wonder which discount vets they sign…) and Burke could be a different arm in the spring.

100. David Festa (MIN) – I wanted to lean into Festa more, though the skills are still a work in progress. All three of his pitches are above average, though his usage and approach have tweaks to be made. I watched him struggle to locate and piece it together during at-bats often in his starts, making it easy for the Twins to adhere to their short leash for young arms. That leash may stay and mixed with the haze of Festa’s development acceleration, I’m cautious drafting the young Minnesota arm. I believe it’ll take some time for him to come into his own and I’d prefer to skip the early tribulations that will make for tough decisions early.

101. Caleb Kilian (CHC) – I was enamored by Killian in the spring of last year until he was shut down with a shoulder injury. He returned for a brief moment as a “starter” by the end of the season, displaying the same fastball velocity (at times, just his four-seamer, really), with a cutter that landed a 6.06 PLV across 30 thrown in his final game of 5.0 IP. When he’s hurling 96+ mph with seven feet of extension and good locations and mixes it with an elite cutter, you can grasp my excitement. Kilian will compete with Brown for the final rotation spot (maybe Horton, too?) and I think he can claim it. Brown is made to be a reliever IMO.

102. Jack Leiter (TEX) – We saw him briefly and despite the poor results, Leiter’s four-seamer still carried an elite PLV with great shape across the board. The problem? He didn’t have a consistent secondary to back it up. It’s not that the slider lacks break, it was Leiter’s inability to conjure the pitch when needed, leading to a 13% Putaway rate for the pitch against RHB. That’s terrible. He is your traditional FB/SL power pitcher with a curve, change, and cutter that could become something more next season. Until I see Leiter with a rotation spot and nailing down his execution better, I’m bucketing him as a high-risk arm without enough sustainability to make an early investment worthwhile.

103. Zebby Matthews (MIN) – I was disappointed by Matthews after his first few outings. I expected his four-seamer to be more of a whiff pitch, while the cutter can be used against both LHB/RHB + an elite PLV slider. Sadly, his curve and change didn’t make this as deep of an arsenal, nor was his command as stellar throughout the rookie campaign. The slider is still a winner and I’d bet on the command being there more than others next season. It’s more about the development of his other offerings. Can he do more with his average four-seamer? Or can he find a true #4 to help as well?

104. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) – We haven’t seen McCullers regularly start for years since a handful of games in 2022 and it’s unclear what’s ahead in 2025.  Without an indication of health and gameplan for the Astros, this is a late flier for an arm who has displayed 25%+ strikeouts and elite ICR marks for years at the cost of inefficiency and lack of volume per start, leading to high WHIP totals that may leave a stain in reflection come October. Expect him to be ranked higher if he’s confirmed for the rotation entering the season.

105. Adrian Morejon (SD) – Morejon has been an intriguing arm who could transition to a starting job.

106. DL Hall (MIL) – Yes, I was excited about Hall entering this year, and sadly, he changed his arm angle and reduced velocity, diminishing his fastballs effectiveness, while the feel for changeups and sliders weren’t there. He got hurt, spent some time in the bullpen, and now gets another shot to become a regular starter. It’s best to be cautiously optimistic, and I’ll be watching closely, hoping we get what we originally dreamt.

107. Hayden Birdsong (SFG) – He throws hard and doesn’t know where it’s going. The curve and slider have appeared at times to help, but hot dang do I not trust his volatility. Maybe this rank is too low as he could suddenly have the ability out of the gate and voila! There’s a hard throwing whiff machine. It’s more likely than not that Birdsong can’t find better command without sacrificing his stuff, creating a frustrating pitcher we’ll all struggle to rank in April.

108. Jeff Hoffman (FA) – Like Reynaldo last year, Hoffman is a free agent looking to make the transition from RP back to a starter and we should keep an eye on him. His four-seamer’s 5.40 PLV should raise eyebrows at 97 mph with large horizontal break (likely 94/95 mph when not max effort as a starter), while his slider was all kinds of filthy at a 22% SwStr rate. If the splitter can continue to hold a 60%+ strike rate and his sinker can be mixed in effectively, Hoffman can be a hold in 12-teamers. I’d rather see how this pans out than settling for the arms in the tier below in shallow formats.

Tier 13 – For Those In The Deep

110. Luis Severino (FA) – Like Pfaadt, this was mostly four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, and it worked better than I expected. You really should be shooting for more in your drafts, though. Severino didn’t flash a consistent approach that hinted at a proper SP 3/4 plateau.

Tier 14 – Just Pick A Spot Already

Sooooo I can see how all of these can be good for the year ahead, but now we’re really starting to get to the Uggghh, I guess I have to put them somewhere rankings. If you see them here and below, consider me out on them.

117. Rhett Lowder (CIN) – Maybe I’m too low on Lowder. I saw a sinker for strikes and a solid slider, but not enough mmmph to showcase a proper star in the making. I worry about his home park + inconsistent command (that still went in his favor…?) and I think we’re going to have to wait a bit until Lowder either adds more velocity, another pitch, or nails down his command before we can trust rostering him in 12-teamers.

118. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) – The addition of the cutter and greater focus on strikes opened the door for a redemption year for Ortiz, though it was a focus on control, not command. That is, he hasn’t unlocked the ability to find whiffs consistently and I worry he can only do one or the other – aim for efficiency in play or gamble on a five-inning outing littered with punchouts. I don’t think I’ll get an answer early in the year, which has me favoring him as a potential waiver pickup at best.

119. Tylor Megill (NYM) – His extension is fantastic and when he gets the four-seamer upstairs and has his slider or cutter or splitter sitting low, things are great. He’s still struggling with consistency, though, and he doesn’t seem made for spin. There’s also the question of velocity – Megill is far better at 96 mph than 94/95, and we don’t know what we’ll get on a given night. If he’s a starter, that is.

120. José Soriano (LAA) – That sinker is heavy at 96+ mph with a high CSW curveball. That’s the life of Soriano and it creates volatility on a middling Angels squad. The end result may be worthwhile (the Angels do like to let their arms go 90+ pitches often), though I expect Soriano to be more of a streaming type throughout the year. I sure hope we get something new in the spring, though.

121. Brady Singer (KCR) – He’s the same arm he’s been since 2021. Four years of an elite CS% sinker and a strong slider. The four-seamer didn’t fix things, the changeup never really happened, and even adding more arm-side sinkers worked at first, but eventually stabilized into the same ‘ole Singer over time. He’s a volatile Toby.

122. Tyler Anderson (LAA) – The changeup was back! And he had great vert on the heater that mixed well, especially when the cutter was cookin’ in the corner. He went through crests and troughs, though, and it’s hard to bank on Anderson having that feel out of the gate. Keep your eye on him, especially against RHB heavy teams who get destroyed by LHB changeups.

123. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) – Eduardo doesn’t have a killer pitch. It has been the changeup and his four-seamer can carry a game at times, but the overall arsenal doesn’t demand success and I only expect it to get worst next season. His value comes in volume and Win potential, but the WHIP is likely to hurt.

Tier 15 – This Is The Year! I Swear!

You’re going to see some very low rankings here that are unfair to some of these pitchers and let’s not go wild about it. Blame the prospects and injury tiers for about 20 extra spots, then blame their general mediocrity that plays better in 15-teamers and not in 12-teamers. That’s on them, not me. Obviously there are names in tiers above who belong below many listed here, but the chance of them getting rotation spots make drafting them worthwhile over these pitchers stealing a roster spot.

124. Tyler Mahle (TEX) – His four-seamer used to be great, TJS happened, and he was unimpressive when returning with the Rangers in 2024. Mahle wasn’t an arm who felt destined to be a Top 20 SP, but he had promise if his secondaries could catch up to the heater, and it’s possible he’s flexing a new look come spring, firmly inside the Rangers rotation.

125. Triston McKenzie (CLE) – Who knows. He had a sprained UCL, returned, sent to the minors, and should be ready to reclaim a rotation spot and seize it. To do so, he’ll have to get his velocity back up to 93+ mph comfortably, with his curveball consistently earning a 20% SwStr rate + a slider that he can actually earn effective strikes with. This is a wait-and-see arm.

126. Albert Suarez (BAL) – He shocked me in the spring, even if it felt like a “yeah yeah yeah, no one knows this guy, he can’t actually be good.” His four-seamer is a solid offering upstairs, but the secondaries aren’t always there and even with the full package, it’s not a blueprint for elite success. I also question if he’s built for 6+ innings often and if the Orioles see him more as a peripheral depth SP than a true member of the rotation moving forward.

127. Tony Gonsolin (LAD) – The Dodgers likely won’t have room for him in the rotation, but if they do, there’s a chance Gonsolin tosses pearls every five days and makes it work. I wasn’t impressed with his arsenal before TJS and I’d be surprised if he flexed a new skill in 2025, but it may be enough to secure Wins with decent ratios.

128. Jordan Montgomery (ARI) – Hey, maybe The Bear was displaced by his late Free Agency signing and he’ll actually return to form as a proper Toby in 2025? I think it’s more likely than you’d think, but that doesn’t mean he can flex the ability he displayed in the Sneks’ 2024 World Series run.

129. Luis Garcia (HOU) – I wonder what we’ll get from Garcia, who currently is slotted as the expected #5 for the Astros next year after recovering all of 2024 from TJS. I’d expect a FA signing getting in the way, but if we get a fun battle in the spring that has us wondering “wait, how did we forget about Garcia?” If his slider and cutter are earning consistent strikes and he can set up the high iVB heater effectively, he can be a surprising arm with a 20-25% strikeout rate on a winning club. Sneaky sneaky.

130. Jake Irvin (WSH) – That stretch was bonkers. His curveball was better than I’ve ever seen it and his sinker + four-seamer over the plate were confusing enough to make the whole approach work. That breaker disappeared by the second half and while there were days of effective heaters doing the job, it was the Irvin you know from 2023. Maybe he finds it again early next year and soars.

131. DJ Herz (WSH) – I recognize that Herz will have strikeout heavy games. I also recognize myself enduring his inability to locate consistently game-to-game (sometimes inning-to-inning) and I see the uneasiness ahead as we debate dropping him or chancing it one more time. But hot dang, if that changeup is always there…

132. Cade Povich (BAL) – He’s a decent play for Wins, but I’d be shocked if he turned into a ratio darling we can trust throughout the year. I’m amazed the four-seamer held a sub 30% ICR, though I’ll leave that up to low sample size over its actual ability to mitigate damage. His array of secondaries lack an elite offering to latch onto, from a big hook that got pummeled to a change that exists for the sake of it. We need more.

133. Ben Brown (CHC) – Succinctly put, I think the Cubs will put him into the pen due to his minimal arsenal and questionable command. He’s four-seamer/curve and desperately needs a slider or cutter as the fastball doesn’t have good enough shape to miss bats + the breaker should be used more as a whiff pitch (26% SwStr!) than depended upon for a strike in the zone. I also found him featuring mediocre command of both pitches, especially the heater that was a shotgun blast of a strikezone plot in many games.

134. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Is he actually pitching next year? I still think he’s good enough to start when he does as a command focused Win arm, but hot dang will this be a tough time figuring out when he’ll actually be stretched out enough + worthwhile to hold. I don’t think the upside is worth your time at all if he’s taking up an IL spot or simply chilling on your bench with a marg.

135. Jameson Taillon (CHC) – He wants to add velocity this off-season (don’t we all) and if his back is healthy, Taillon can be productive over six frames or so. Think streamer, not hold in 12-teamers. And most 15-teamers.

136. Nick Martinez (FA) – His changeup usage went up (h*ck yeah!) and he turned down his $12M option with the Reds, hoping to actually be a regular starter for a team. I can see it working at times, but his fastballs get crushed and his precision has to be there for consistent results.

Tier 16 – Post-Was-There-Hype?

139. Chayce McDermott (BAL) – The Orioles rotation may have a spot for McDermott to seize and if he’s earning enough strikes with his heater and slider, he’s a decent upside play to chase in early April.

140. Landon Knack (LAD) – The four-seamer has decent vert, the slider is great, and the Dodgers gave Knack a fair number of starts this year where he came through for a sneaky Win. I’m not sold he can transform into a reliable starter if given a routine role, though there is a solid foundation he could build upon in 2025.

141. Chase Silseth (LAA) – The slider and splitter were excellent for a moment back in 2023, though I’m not confident he can replicate their former glory in the year ahead. And, you know, The Angels. Not the best team for pitching development.

142. Joe Boyle (ATH) – We know his stuff is nasty. We know he could be phenomenal if he was able to consistently throw strikes. He absolutely wasn’t able to this year and yet, it’s a non-zero chance Boyle makes a tweak this winter and forces his way into the Athletics’ rotation – or at least well enough to make him considerable for your fantasy teams. Super unlikely, of course.

143. Frankie Montas (FA) – We saw Frankie add a bit of velocity and find a groove for a moment when dealt to the Brewers and I wonder if he’ll land in a good situation somewhere that allows him to go over 90 pitches every five days. The risk/reward isn’t in your best interest from the onset of the season, but those in 15-teamers and deeper may found some surprise value with Montas in 2025 if he’s able to start regularly.

144. Huascar Ynoa (ATL) – Who knows. He will get a chance to fight for a rotation spot in Atlanta and maybe he’s pumping 96+ mph with a deadly slider once again…hopefully with a third option to ease the pain of that oh-so-hittable heater.

145. Jordan Hicks (SFG) – Hicks was given a shot in the rotation and eventually moved back to the bullpen. Maybe he gets another shot and can polish his sweeper and splitter to become strike pitches…?

146. Landen Roupp (SFG) – The curve is solid, the fastball earns called strikes, and…wait is this Brady Singer with a mustache and glasses? You sneaky rascal.

147. Davis Martin (CHW) – His “kick change” isn’t there every game and his slider went through transitions of its own. He’s a command guy with potential to produce if he’s firing on all cylinders…for the White Sox. The margin of error is razor thin.

148. Louie Varland (MIN) – If Varland actually develops accuracy with his arsenal, there’s legit potential. His four-seamer can work upstairs while the cutter and slider have potential for whiffs and strikes. But hot dang, does he fail to locate far too often. I don’t expect Minnesota to lean heavily on Varland to enter the year.

Tier 17 – Names You’ll Forget You Read

149. Jarlin Susana (WSH) – He throws super hard and is also super young. The Nats are likely going to wait to call him up, but keep your eye on him when he inevitably gets the call. He’ll likely be an auto pick-up when the time comes.

150. Cade Cavalli (WSH) – I wasn’t impressed when we first saw Cade, but he’s undergone a bit of a transformation and is now fighting to join the rotation in 2025. Let’s see where he’s at.

151. George Klassen (LAA) – He’s a low slingin’ RHP with a massive cross-body delivery who throws hard around 97 mph and gets horizontal movement (duh), leading to a disgusting curveball at 87 mph (is it a slider?) with a bridge slider at 90 mph (is it a cutter?). The problem? Strikes. Not a huge surprise given the mechanics, but if he can figure it out, Klassen will dominate the bigs. That’s a HUGE if + he’s turning 23-years-old in January and has only seven starts in Double-A (under 100 IP in his professional career), leading me to believe we won’t see Klassen for a bit. He’s a cool one, though.

152. Daniel Espino (CLE) – He’s been plagued with injuries and it’s all kind of disappointing. But now he’s healthy! Is he though? And how long will the Guardians force him to recover in the minors before heading to the show? Is his stuff even good anymore?

153. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – His stuff is absurd. His command is not. It’s a three pitch mix that would dominate if he can throw strikes at will, making Msiorowski a high reliever risk, though that may make him a solid play as Misiorowski the closer is still sure to help your 12-teamer squads. Devin Williams is still there. Ah. Right.

154. Quinn Mathews (STL) – He’s a LHP with a decently spotted 94 mph four-seamer with a great slider that falls underneath. The changeup leaves a lot to be desired, while his curve is used sparingly, and I don’t think I’ll be interested until the slow ball takes shape. If you don’t have an elite fastball, you need a changeup as a LHP these days.

155. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) – We saw AJSS briefly last year and we thought he was too young. I hope he’s healthy from his oblique injury and prepared to give it another shot, though I think there’s still another level of polish needed for him to stick in the majors in his next opportunity. His 95-97 mph velocity is lovely with a changeup and curve (or is it a slider now?) that all flashed promise, but I question if the heater can overwhelm with middling shape and a lack of dominating breaker.

156. Chase Dollander (COL) – Coors is undefeated. But apparently Dollander is just that good and we have to give him a chance.

157. Hagen Smith (CHW) – Drafted by the White Sox in 2024, he’s an upper 90s LHP with a legit slider. We likely don’t see him for a bit, but crazier things have happened, and the White Sox have…no one?

Tier 18 – Stick To The Streams You’re Used To

158. Brant Hurter (DET) – His sinker was far better than you know. It was able to return a 27% ICR despite an 80% strike rate. That’s absurd. Unheard of! Sadly, his sweeper and changeup are inconsistent and we cannot expect the sinker to perform this well across a season, let alone out of the gate. Maybe there is something to it, though, and let’s see how the Tigers use him early in the year. Maybe an early stream that turns into a longer hold…?

159. Griffin Canning (ATL) – Atlanta traded for him and I’d still avoid it…? Maybe the defense and Win chance improves, though the Angels certainly let Canning go far into games and I’m not sure what Atlanta will fix – he lowered his fastball usage to feature more changeups and sliders, but they were still awfully hittable. The Soler deal feels more like saving $10M on the books to add some more depth instead of having massive faith in Canning’s ability.

160. Chris Bassitt (TOR) – Bassitt is the perfect showcase of a “safe” arm who ends up being the largest weight on your team throughout the season. Bassitt could very well be better next year, as long as he can reclaim his secondaries once again – the sinker will still continue to be a called strike machine.

161. JP Sears (ATH) – Yes, Sears had his moments but hot dang do I not know what we’re going to see in April. I don’t think he knows. There will be random days of strikeout production, but it wouldn’t be wise to expect a productive season ahead.

162. Mitchell Parker (WSH) – There’s a streamer in here if Parker has at least three of his four pitches working on a given day. There isn’t enough here to expect a proper breakout, unless that command becomes legit.

163. Mason Black (SFG) – His extension + a focus on high heaters is a plus, though he doesn’t nail down his sweeper as much as I’d like, nor does he pair it with an effective changeup. There’s still work to be done.

164. Dean Kremer (BAL) – This certainly looks low and maybe it is, but I don’t buy into Kremer as a productive 12-teamer to hold on rosters, though he’ll have some stretches of success when his four-seamer can excel upstairs, the cutter works for strikes, and the rest of the arsenal comes together. Think of him as a Win streaming option.

165. Zack Littell (TBR) – Littell was able to go “Dancing with the Disco” at times and it’s not a skill I want to depend on.

166. Alex Cobb (FA) – His splitter is sometimes there, just like his health. Ayyyy. The upside isn’t there anymore.

167. Jose Quintana (FA) – Every year we’ve seen Quintana have weeks where he locates changeups and curves down, four-seamer up, and sinkers armside. When that’s gone, it’s bad. Try to pick your spots during the year.

168. Aaron Civale (MIL) – Civale lost the feel for his arsenal, though there were some signs by the end. I sincerely hope he can go 65%+ cutters and curves once again.

169. Jordan Wicks (CHC) – Wicks had a high iVB fastball with a strong change early in the year, though he still needs to polish his cutter. When the heater/change mix isn’t well spotted, it all falls apart, too. I’d keep my eye on him in the spring to see if he’s taken any steps further and if the Cubs are confident enough in him to put him in the rotation early in the year.

170. Reid Detmers (LAA) – Oh Reid. Three straight seasons of featuring promise in March (mostly with his slider) only for him to fizzle by May. The Angels aren’t helping him at all and it’s awfully difficult to expect 2025 to be the year it all works for the full season. I sure hope the iVB returns on his heater.

171. Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – If you’ve witnessed Cannon this season, you’ll remember the games where it’s all working. He looks like a stud even inside games with sinkers spotted, cutters, changeups, sliders, etc., but when he’s off? RUN. And the White Sox n all.

172. Marcus Stroman (NYY) – Are the Yankees going to trust Stroman out of the gate? I imagine at the very least he’ll get chances as a depth option but let’s target him as a streamer only. His sinker-focused approach isn’t nearly as effective as it used to be.

173. Casey Mize (DET) – Can he get his slider back? Just a cutter will suffice. PLEASE. The fastball could be strong upstairs, but the splitter ain’t a dependable asset. He needs that proper secondary for a strike.

174. Matt Manning (DET) – He was at 95 mph last year with legit extension and a flat attack angle, but then it faded. The Tigers also had a lack of confidence with him after spring training, pushing him to the minors, and likely messing with his head a fair amount. If he comes into camp and dominates, he might be worth an add.

175. Richard Fitts (BOS) – I don’t think his fastball/slider is all that great, but maybe he takes a step forward and seizes a rotation spot out of camp. I wouldn’t expect a ton of upside here.

176. Kyle Harrison (SFG) – He has potential if he could ever locate consistently. I just don’t see that ever happening, making Harrison too much of a roll of the dice each time he starts.

177. Trevor Rogers (BAL) – The Orioles pursued Rogers at the deadline and have had plenty of time to mold him into the southpaw they envisioned. It’s possible we have a new version in camp this March.

Tier 19 – Why Are There More Than 19 Tiers?

179. Mitch Spence (ATH) – If Spence is able to add some velocity, he could be what we’ve always dream Ashcraft could be. And if he doesn’t? He’s a gamble for five innings of decent ratios on a meh team.

180. Ben Lively (CLE) – No, I don’t truly understand how Lively had as good of a season as he just did. Yes, it’s very unlikely he’ll do it again.

181. Trevor Williams (FA) – He did a great job of locating his secondaries down with sporadic four-seamers upstairs. He has to squeeze the most out of his arsenal to make it work and I have no interest involving myself with him.

182. J.T. Ginn (ATH) – He’s a sinker/slider arm without a good weapon against LHB. He’s a streaming option at best.

183. Jon Gray (TEX) – Are the Rangers going to leave him in the rotation or turn him into a reliever? The latter makes more sense given a great slider and questionable fastball that can be dialed in for higher velocity if he’s in shorter stints. As a starter, Gray is far too volatile to touch.

184. Joey Estes (ATH) – I like his four-seamer command, but hot dang does he need more velocity. I sure hope he finds it over the winter…

185. Javier Assad (CHC) – Akin to Lively, I’m shocked he was able to survive as much as he did and I have no interest testing the waters again. Even when it was working, something was always disappointing with every start, be it strikeouts, WHIP, or the dreaded clunker of an ERA.

186. Andre Pallante (STL) – His cut-fastball can be hard to hit at times when he pumps them over the plate, but that’s about all to like about Pallante. It’s far too low of a strikeout ceiling to chase.

187. Erick Fedde (STL) – After an interesting first half with the White Sox, he was awfully disappointing with the Cardinals as once again, we have learned to not trust the Feddes.

188. Andrew Heaney (FA) – We saw some starts where Heaney was locked into the BSB, but even when he executed, it wasn’t always in his favor. I’m not looking forward to discerning whether Heaney has made a sustainable tweak or not across his routine undulation through the season.

189. Spencer Turnbull (FA) – He found his groove before the Phillies elected to start Taijuan Walker instead. Then he tried to ramp up again to start and got hurt.

190. Bailey Falter (PIT) – Wait, why hasn’t he been traded to the Rays yet? The Winter meetings are in December. Ahhh right! I’ll be there! Hopefully to give y’all the scoop as the Rays lean into his elite four-seamer extension and hope to teach him a proper changeup to take advantage of it. LET ME DREAM.

191. Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) – He’s surprisingly effective by throwing a ton of sinkers at 96 mph. Don’t overlook him in the deepest of leagues, but strikeouts will not be there.

192. Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – I initially didn’t expect Hendricks to sign with a team that would have him starting every five days but here we are. He’ll have some random moments but hot dang you don’t want this.

192. Max Meyer (MIA) – His slider is good. Everything else isn’t. Not for me.

193. Adam Oller (FA) – His cross-body mechanics made him harder to hit when he was able to throw strikes, but will a team sign him and take a shot like the Marlins did?

194. Martín Pérez (FA) – He gets into a Vargas Rule if you’re lucky. He’ll likely land a spot as a #5 on a low-Win crew and find some volume. Hopefully the command gets going on his changeup, cutter, and sinker.

Tier 20 – Hurt But Not Completely Out

195. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) – Maybe we’ll see a season with a healthy Whitlock getting into rhythm again. Sigh.

196. Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET) – Wasn’t his moment at the end of 2023 cool? Imagine him coming back halfway through the year.

197. J.P. France (HOU) – France had a torn shoulder capsule and it’s hard to expect him back to normal at any moment this year.

198. José Urquidy (FA) – Urquidy was released by the Astros as he continued to recover from TJS and we shouldn’t expect him to sign and perform for a team this year, save for the end of the year if he’s ready to go. I can see him being a surprise streamer if he does get a chance.

199. Josiah Gray (WSH) – Yep, more TJS recovery. Hope he comes back and finds a way to limit the long ball. Wouldn’t that be lovely.

200. Johan Oviedo (PIT) – TJS y’all. Slider was great at times with a solid heater. Wonder when we’ll see him again.

201. Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – The last we saw of Ashcraft was an elbow strain and it’s unclear what we’ll see from him in 2025. The Reds have many options and maybe Ashcraft is a reliever. Or maybe he actually fixes his command. HA. I know, I know.

202. John Means (BAL) – Poor fella got TJS a second time and I’d wager he doesn’t appear for the full year. Sigh.

Tier 21 – Rocky Mountain Way

203. The Entire Rockies’ Rotation – COL story, bro.