Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + I stream the creation of this article LIVE at 1:00pm ET Monday afternoons.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The HIPSTER players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just two labels per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from John Villavicencio, though we will be conferring each week. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash right now in 12-teamers.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses, granted by our PLV powered Projections (in alphabetical order by tier):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend reading my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top ~60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: None
- Removed: Logan Gilbert (7), Spencer Strider (13)
- Net Change Inside Top 60: (+2)
Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
Tier 1 – The True Aces
These pitchers are dope and make us feel dope.
1. Tarik Skubal – He’s been so good since those first two. Sample size is a real thing. Please understand that when reading through the rest of this. But I never read the first pitchers. You never read any of the notes. STOP MAKING ME FEEL SEEN. I’m not, you didn’t even read this. AHHHHH.
2. Paul Skenes – He takes the number two spot with such a dominating performance against the Dodgers and Crochet’s slight concerns about his extension.
3. Garrett Crochet – Crochet isn’t sitting comfortably above seven feet of extension and it’s a little worrisome. Not enough to change him a ton, but not #2 SP.
4. Zack Wheeler – He’s now leaning into his splitter and cutter and it’s working. So much fun.
5. Jacob deGrom – Yes, I am a touch concerned that deGrom doesn’t have the same four-seamer this year. It’s not the velocity’s fault, it’s the location’s fault. His slider has been one of the best in baseball, though.
6. Cole Ragans – He’s aparently fine and good to go for Wednesday. I debated moving him around based on speculation and if you want to do that, go ahead. As for now, he’s getting one extra day of rest to recover from a minor groin injury.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
7. Max Fried – He’s pitching like a stud earlier than usual and taking full advantage of his team’s offense to go 5-for-6 Wins. Gotta love it.
8. Michael King – King’s four-seamer is becoming a whiff machine, as if he needed another weapon. He’s looking like the mini-Wheeler type I’ve always wanted him to be.
9. Hunter Greene – Even in Coors, he cannot be stopped. But it was 3 ER. HE CONTINUES HIS REIGN. The sliders should be better outside of the thin air.
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – I’m hoping the arsenal expansion continues and he sees the high heater whiff for a strikeout and thinks “huh, maybe I should do that more.”
11. Joe Ryan – The sweeper is here and it is GLORIOUS. He finally has a #2 pitch, now he just needs something slightly better against LHB. Maybe the splitter is enough to pair with the elite four-seamer?
12. Tyler Glasnow – BUT HE’S HURT! As of the time I’m writing this, we don’t have an update and he’s apparently starting over the weekend. Y’all can rank him how you like, I moved him down a bit to recognize his current situation and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s off The List next week.
13. Dylan Cease – Yes, Cease had a terrible game. He’s also had just one other “terrible” game. He’s also failed to fan more than seven batters in a game this year. Also fair. The slider is still absurdly good and the small sample of the year is showing the same Cease we’ve seen for a long time. I truly don’t think this is anything different, which means 200+ strikeouts and solid enough ratios are coming.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.
14. Logan Webb – Webb is pitching his best baseball at the moment with a proper embrace of the full arsenal to pair with the changeup and sinker. I love it and he could earn AGA status by next week.
15. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty’s slider and curve are doing exactly what we want them to. As long as they are both cooking, he’ll continue to rise with AGA prosperity possibly in his future.
16. Bryan Woo – Woo’s four-seamer is stellar, though there is this constant battle of figuring out his secondaries to complement it. So it goes, we love him.
17. Shane Baz – The Yankee start was rough, and it was the sole blemish on a stupid good season for Baz this season. His heaters at 97 mph with the phenomenal curve he exhibited at the end of 2024, while often featuring a solid changeup over the plate to confound batters who sit on the heater. Remember, he hasn’t pitched a full season in his career and he’s the kind of arm who can take advantage of the routine outings to make the tweaks he needs. I’m all in.
18. Drew Rasmussen – He’s just so hard to hit. Yes, four runs, but everything else was just the same. He’s a stud and with every start, he gets closer to a 90+ pitch leash that allows him to reach a full six frames consistently.
19. Spencer Schwellenbach – We were on the verge of AGA until Mr. Crescendo took a step back in his last three. I’m expecting the breakers to wake up and support the improved fastball moving forward, let alone the cutter becoming the dominating pitch it has in the past.
20. Pablo López – He’s back from injury and ready to jam. Or whatever, he’s back.
21. Shota Imanaga – It’s the same Imanaga, who I want to give the AGA tag to again, though I see him as a small step down. There’s a lower floor without quite the same plateau at the top.
22. Hunter Brown – Yes, I acknowledge Brown’s dominance this year…even if Sunday came with more hits than ideal. I’m still questioning if the breakers are elite or if the four-seamer will stick at 97 mph (slightly under yesterday), but hot dang, he’s killing it with that heater thus far. Just stop allowing all the hard contact, okay?
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also have heightened nightmare potential on a given night.
23. Chris Sale – Did you know that Sale has yet to go more than exactly five frames in a single start this season? The slider and changeup feel is still a bit off.
24. Corbin Burnes – Burnes had a much better start over the weekend, though I highlighted in the roundup the concerns that still linger: Cutter drop is still poor, new slider lacks whiffs, and curve/change are not reliable. I’m still scared and want to remain optimistic given his track record.
25. Framber Valdez – It’s Framber. It’ll be in the end, but who knows week to week.
26. Carlos Rodón – Rodón’s changeup has been a huge help this year and you may be shocked to see a 31% strikeout rate with strong ratios thus far. You should dig this.
27. Freddy Peralta – Hey Peralta, mind not letting Professor Chaos take over so much? It’s kinda frustrating when your stuff should be doing more.
28. Robbie Ray – Ayyyy he did the thing! The walks came down with the slider actually returning strikes as it should be. That’s why he’s not the same guy of old. In the past, his four-seamer control was horrific, putting too much emphasis on the slider to get through games. In recent years, the four-seamer has been a constant prescence in the zone and the oddity has been the lack of support. His slider stepped up and he had a great game, while he got a few more chases than he should have on his changeup. That slowball is still a work in progress.
29. Ryan Pepiot – Once again, I wrestle with my ranking for Pepiot. He’s right at that point where this feels like it’s too high, but then glancing at the next tier, you see names who don’t carry the same stuff and strikeout ability, but feature a better ratio floor and a higher chance for six frames. It’s 100% up to you – if you want Pepiot down to #39, that makes sense! At the very least, he doesn’t quite belong in the same tier as someone like Senga or Lugo. I’m leaning toward Pepiot smoothing out the command over time.
Tier 4.5 – LAST DAY FOR PL LIFETIME SUBSCRIPTION
Thanks for reading the notes! Here’s 20% off PL Pro Yearly: INROUPPWETRUST. You can also get a one-time purchase for a lifetime subscription and become a PL Hall Of Famer, with free merch included. Become a lifetime subscriber, save in the long run and help us make the site we all want to exist.
Tier 5 – Same But Different
These are also Holly types, but they aren’t as exciting as the ones above. You should be fine with them, there’s just a little more risk.
30. Nathan Eovaldi – The curve is a game changer this year. The pitch turns Eovaldi into a four-pitch arm who can throw any of the hook, splitty, cutter, and heater in any count, helping him travel deeper into games than others.
31. Sonny Gray – Sometimes it’s Sonny, sometimes it’s Gray. Most of the time, he adapts to figure out a path toward production with a ceiling for domination.
32. Kodai Senga – I’m not in adoration of Senga’s current package of weapons. The cutter usage has fallen, to my surprise, and the four-seamer is bearing more of the load than usual. I don’t love that heater a ton, but he’s certainly produced in this time and I’m going to stop talking and keep starting him.
33. Seth Lugo – Lugo’s curve/slurve/dope breaker is an excellent putaway pitch while he has enough tools to help him get there consistently. The perfect Holly.
34. Nick Lodolo – Lodolo has been fantastic, including a nine strikeout effort in Coors. It’s the first season he’s had a long runway of health and I can see his changeup feel improving constantly.
35. Jesús Luzardo – The new sweeper is making a larger difference than I expected and Luzardo’s sole stumble gave us a mere scratch against the Giants. Axing the back-foot slider to RHB has reduced the mistakes over the plate and I’d be raising him higher if I didn’t know the track record of Luzardo having glorious stretches followed by monsoons of disarray.
36. Aaron Nola – Nola was trending down despite great command with a fastball under 90 mph…until his last start where the velocity sat 91/92 mph and he leaned into his cutter for 36% usage against RHB. Cutter! IT’S THE YEAR OF THE CUTTER! Nola hasn’t flexed that pitch a whole lot and it makes sense to keep batters off the heaters. I hope that sticks around.
37. Bailey Ober – Ober’s season post-season-debut when he was still awfully sick has been pretty solid. I just wish the slider/cutter was better against RHB. And his heater was back to 92 mph. And he located it upstairs like Oberizzi did.
38. Cristopher Sánchez – I have no idea what the status of Sánchez is. I lowered him a bit given the scare but apparently he’s okay and will pitch this week? I DON’T KNOW.
Tier 6 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?
This is the toughest tier to rank and will likely be filled with landmines. Which will turn into the stud you dreamed of and which will be the bust?
39. Bryce Miller – Miller hasn’t given us that start yet with his four-seamer and I’m twiddling my thumbs waiting for it to happen. It should happen, right? Is it as simple as “He needs to pitch more at home”?
40. Sandy Alcantara – Sandy has been off for a bit now and I’m not excited about a date with the Dodgers this week. That said, the velocity is still up at 97 mph and these rankings are forward thinking, not a ranking of the past.
41. Tanner Bibee – Come on Bibee. We know the cutter should be better than it has been. Unlock what’s in there. As Chris Towers often says, History did not begin five starts ago. Bibee is better than what he has been and I’m willing to chase that than the others below.
42. Luis Castillo – Castillo took advantage of his last outing and generally gets better across the season, but let’s be honest. The warning signs are there with his heater and the slider + changeup are not the goons he needs to do the dirty work. He may end up in Tier 8 by the summer and we call it a day.
43. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta has done incredibly well lately and I dig the embrace of going more than four-seamer/sweeper to RHB, but this is Pivetta. The guy who has never had an ERA under 4.00 in his career. I can’t sit here and tell you this is the guy you’ll get all year.
44. MacKenzie Gore – I can’t express how badly I want Gore to have his breakout season. The tools are all there with a four-seamer that should overwhelm upstairs, a new slider to deal with LHB, a vicious cutter to RHB, and a change + curve that are poised for high CSW marks. He just needs to spot the dang pitches frequently and I don’t know if that’ll happen more often than not.
Tier 7 – At The Edge Of The Cliff
Now that we’re past the “hey, this is legit value I’m unlikely to drop this season”, it’s time to shift to pure upside. It’s why these rankings are more aggressive than projections or likely other rankings you’ve seen elsewhere. It’s a 12-teamer and you should be embracing the burn-and-churn of your starting pitchers.
45. Landen Roupp – I went into ranking The List thinking I was going to lower Roupp, but where to? Are the guys below him in this tier that much better? The next? There’s this idea that the exciting, recent waiver pick up arms are not allowed to have a bad day. If they do, their previous success is classified as a fluke, whereas the studs are just “going through things.” Roupp’s curveball is absurd. The sinker movement is fantastic. The four-seamer, change, and cutter all have legit potential. Trust the kid and don’t you dare suggest he get usurped by Birdsong again. You want chaos? THAT’S CHAOS.
46. Tylor Megill – He keeps rolling and I’m sad that I doubted him after his arsenal failed him a week ago. The four-seamer stuff is legit and has needed both a complement and to be spotted upstairs frequently and Megill has given his heater exactly that. The slower slider is working, the changeup is fine, and the sinker helps keep batters hesitant a touch longer to let the 95/96 mph fastball thrive. Please find a way to keep this feel.
47. Max Meyer – Just like I mentioned with Roupp, Meyer had a horrible day and I’m not changing my ranking. His previous game came against the lowly Reds, sure, but the feel for his arsenal was incredible. The history of Meyer displays a command arm, not a chaotic one, and I’m confident we’ll look back at his time in Seattle as a strange moment across a great season. You’ll regret that. I sure hope not. That slider, sweeper, and change are all stellar, while the sinker and four-seamer coming in harder has been a gamechanger.
48. Gavin Williams – HE FINALLY THREW THE CUTTER. And didn’t need it as it was the first time all year that the curve and slider held fantastic strike rates. BUT IT’S THERE.
49. Jackson Jobe – Jobe was skipped for the Tigers to take advantage of their extra player for the doubleheader, so he stays right where he was.
50. Kris Bubic – Oh Bubic, I really wanted you to soar with your changeup against the RHB-heavy Astros. I still love the skills and I’m not moving on Bubic quite yet. There simply weren’t more exciting arms to grab instead.
Tier 8 – The Borderline Hollys
These are Holly arms and I can see how all of them can take the leap across the next month…or fall down the ranks quickly.
51. Zac Gallen – Yeaaaaaah. It seems like it’s the time to grasp that Gallen may not be a productive 12-teamer arm when all is said and done. I’m looking forward to feeling like a fool and rising him up the ranks as he goes on a great run with his curve and changeup after this, but for now, it’s a very hittable four-seamer and a curve that needs to do too much.
52. Brandon Pfaadt – Pfaadt has proven to me that he’s a new arm with his expanded arsenal. Now the question is: How good is it? I’m not sure yet. He could be inside the Top 40 soon enough when he gets more reps with the curve and change to make them true weapons.
53. Dustin May – He was an atrocity in his last game and while I didn’t lower Meyer, Roupp, and Bubic, I lowered May given his lower strikeout ceiling. Dustin should be the arm not doing that. We’re definitely holding and this is likely a hiccup, though I expected a few more gains by now.
54. Justin Verlander – Verlander’s slider and four-seamer are still a great pairing and I’d feel great holding for the forseeable future.
55. Reese Olson – Olson’s slider and changeup were both on for the first time all year and it was GLORIOUS. I imagine some want him higher, but I need to see him replicate it for at least one start first, if not two.
56. Clay Holmes – The Adobe isn’t a consistent arm. He wrestles with his repertoire each outing, with the sinker hoping to return enough strikes to get away with just one secondary finding consistent strikes. It’s maddening and limits his ceiling. But the strikeouts! Holmes’ season high whiff total is just 13 whiffs for a single start. That’s not dominance that suggests repeatability of anything more than a strikeout per inning.
Tier 9 – You Want To Ride The Magic Bus
It’s a little section of arms who everyone is buzzing about. So why not, take a chance and figure out if these stick.
57. Jake Irvin – When Irvin has his curveball on point, you roll with it for as long as he has it. He’s had it for three games now and just close your eyes and go for it. I debated if he should go higher or lower based on both of these points (he’s pitching better than May at the moment, but could end up off your teams in like a week or two) and it’s your call completely.
58. Matthew Liberatore – I like Liberatore. I don’t love the guy as I wish there was more than his slider and his fastball velocity has a tendency to fluctuate, but he could turn into a stable Holly in Tier 8 as the season plods along.
59. Jack Leiter – His first inning was horrendous with a trio of walks, and then he settled in. Expect Leiter to get his groove back across the next start or two and become a hold throughout the season. And if not? Then we send him back to the wire. This ranking isn’t a “He’s going to be a star!” It’s recognizing that the guys below are awfully boring.
60. Grant Holmes – Sigh. You likely want nothing to do with The Real Estate Broker. The thing is, he deserves a lot of the damage served his way thus far. The curveball we saw last year hasn’t been around, while the slider is less effective without its friend. Throw in a horrible early schedule and there’s your destruction. The good news? The season still has five months with a better set of lineups ahead (well, after the Dodgers up next. COME ON.), the four-seamer is a better pitch than what we saw last year, and Atlanta has been letting him toss over 90 pitches constantly. He has runway and this usually gets better after a rough month from what we’ve seen in the past in these same situations.
61. Shane Smith – Despite getting fatigued and failing to go deep into games, Smith has still been productive…? I question if he can continue to do so without gaining stamina, while the White Sox give him little hope for Wins. But that three-pitch mix can be so filthy…
62. Lucas Giolito – Oh snap! He’s back this week! And I wouldn’t start him! You’re likely completely out on Giolito and if you are, great! Personally, in 12-teamers, I believe Giolito has more upside than he’s been given credit. He was up in velocity and brimming with hype spring 2024 before getting surgery. The Red Sox have been careful with him and stretched out his rehab in April (to preserve his innings to under 140 IP, but that’s another story), making him ready to produce soon, and his ceiling comes with high Win/QS potential + strikeouts with his three pitch mix. If it’s 90/91 mph, we don’t care! We never even activate him from the IL, and instead drop him straight from it. If he’s 93-95 mph with his old changeup and a legit breaker? Then you’ve got yourself a reliable Holly. The guys ranked below are not must-holds in 12-teamers, y’all. Take the chance, make mistakes, and get messy.
63. Andrew Abbott – Abbott didn’t have the same feel we saw in his previous start and things got dicey. Sigh. He has a better changeup these days and while I’m sitting here wondering if this is DJ Herz 2.0, I think we keep testing the waters.
64. Taj Bradley – His erratic command is back for another season. I sure hope he finds a rhythm that makes me not regret this ranking.
Tier 10 – Fine, You Need Innings
I expect them to be rostered in your 12-teamers and will be solid stabilizers throughout the year.
65. David Peterson – The extension is great and I was tempted to raise him into Tier 8, but he hasn’t quite turned into the arm that I feel fantastic starting each time out. I can see it, but for now, he’s in the Toby tier.
66. Michael Wacha – His changeup is still great and while it won’t be absurd dominance, that pitch will be there constantly.
67. Casey Mize – Mize’s splitter + four-seamer are good, though I don’t love his other options, limiting his ceiling. It has been a decent run thus far and I’m fine holding on (especially in hopes for something else with spin!), but for now, I don’t feel a need to hold on tightly.
68. Chris Bassitt – He’s become a three-pitch arm with a variety of other options, with the sinker-cutter leading the way, and his curve showing up at times. I was gung-ho after the initial display, but it seems like he’s just a Toby that’s fine.
69. Matthew Boyd – The tough schedule is behind him (Sneks + 2x Padres + 2x Dodgers!) and I’m looking forward to watching Boyd take advantage of weaker lineups.
70. Clarke Schmidt – He’s up to 90 pitches now and that should excite you. He’s a bit inefficient and nibbles frequently, but the end product should be a fair number of Wins without the same volume as his peers in this tier.
71. Merrill Kelly – Kelly has a great team behind him and is doing the same ole shtick as always.
72. Brayan Bello – He’s back! And is still failing to attack the zone with his full arsenal. Generally, Bello has two of his main three pitches working on a given night and until he clicks to get in rhythm with all three (sinker, slider, change), then he’ll be in this purgatory.
Tier 11 – They Will Drive You Up The Wall
I’m willing to bet this tier will upset people the most. I see them as HIPSTER arms who could potentially smooth out into stable arms or make you wish in August that you never drafted them. Who knows when they’ll perform at their potential?
73. Roki Sasaki – He doesn’t have a bridge pitch. The slider is meh and he needs something else. I have to think a sinker or cutter will appear in time, but for now, this is painful.
74. Kevin Gausman – Gausman, you need your old splitter back or you’ll be granted the HIPSTER tag all year.
75. Bowden Francis – So, uh, is the four-seamer not actually good enough to do all the work? I wish I were more excited about anything else inside his arsenal.
76. Jordan Hicks – The velocity fell to 94 mph and yes, that scares me. Throw in worse command than we saw earlier on and I’m anxious about what we see up next. If the velocity returns, then we’re back in.
77. Ryan Gusto – Gusto has an opportunity for as long as The Pasta Pirate is healing and with his 94+ mph four-seamer upstairs with stellar vert, there’s a foundation he can build upon. Thing is, I don’t love the rest of the mix and it may take time to find something consistent before he becomes a reliable arm in 12-teamers. If he does get the time, I’m willing to bet on the Astros figuring something out.
78. Tyler Mahle – He relied on his cutter out of nowhere and it kinda helped? Still not stellar and I’m wondering if we really want to keep going after this. He’s not overwhelming anyone.
79. Tony Gonsolin – Gonsolin is making his return and I have low expectations. He was a splitter/slider arm with a hittable fastball before his injury and it’s possible he turns into a volume arm with a good Win chance with the Dodgers at his back. Don’t expect another breakout on its way.
80. Jeffrey Springs – If you can’t take down the White Sox, can you expect sunshine and rainbows in the future?
81. Yusei Kikuchi – The fastball is slower and not getting whiffs. The slider is worse. The change and curve aren’t helping. He needs to make a tweak and I’m not confident in the Angels helping him figure it out.
82. Luis L. Ortiz – He showed up with a legit changeup out of nowhere, but did so with a sub-50% strike four-seamer. We all see the upside, but he’s just a PEAS in the end. Or not. FINE. Or not. I really hope not.
Tier 12 – Fine, You Need More Innings
These guys are a step down from the Tobys in Tier 11 but sure, I get why they’re rostered.
83. Nick Martinez – I dig Martinez for the occasional stream. There’s always a chance he turns into a Holly, but he’s really not an arm to consistently hold in a 12-teamer.
84. Walker Buehler – The sweeper is better to RHB and that’s about it. I’m not seeing enough to latch onto a legit season of consistent production.
85. Brady Singer – Singer isn’t embracing the wide arsenal as he did earlier in the season, making him more of the guy we’ve seen for the past four seasons.
86. Jameson Taillon – Taillon is on an incredible Vargas Rule and we go with it until it slows down. Less long-term upside here, unfortunately.
87. Eduardo Rodriguez – As long we all recognize that the strikeout games are in the past, then we’re cool.
88. Luis Severino – It’s Sevy. You’re getting a decent shot at a Quality Start and the rare strikeout per inning.
89. José Soriano – The slider has disappeared to RHB and the overall command has been hit-or-miss. He could be wearing a TIARA, but even then, would you be confident he’d not lose it again?
90. Will Warren – There’s hope in the four-seamer’s flatter attack angle to mitigate his major hole against LHB, but he’s still too unrefined to lock a roster spot in standard leagues.
Tier 13 – Streamers and WannabeTobys
I like their matchups and they could be productive for a week before we let them go back to the wire.
91. Tyler Anderson – His changeup is still solid and he’s a great 12-teamer play to exploit poor squads, like a date in @TEA this week.
92. Andrew Heaney – Heaney, Quintana, and Taillon are the biggest Vargas Rule arms out here, while Heaney’s floor seems a bit lower than Taillon’s given his track record. I still can’t believe Neto swung through an 89 mph fastball down the pipe at 3-0. It makes no sense! I’m not sure this is worth it against the Cubs.
93. Colin Rea – Rea has a great defense behind him and can command the zone enough to make it work on a given night against the Pirates.
94. Jose Quintana – We haven’t seen disaster from Quintana yet, though his former club in Chicago (no, the other one) is leaving Wrigley to meet him in Milwaukee. It’s up to you if you want to follow the laws of the Vargas Rule.
95. José Berríos – Y’all know I hate leaning on Berríos, but I get it. There’s a Win/QS chance hosting Boston this week.
96. Ronel Blanco – The changeup and slider are still around and he can steal a Win against the Tigers.
97. Jack Kochanowicz – He heads to @TEA and faces the Tigers this week. Surely that’s enough for a decent outing or two, right?
98. Hayden Wesneski – I want to like Hayden more, but there isn’t a whole lot outside of a good sweeper and solid extension. I hope he proves me wrong.
99. Tobias Myers – He wasn’t fresh in his first outing, but with the season debut out of the way, Myers could produce for at least five frames against the CrySox.
100. Erick Fedde – Fedde just had a horrible day at the park, but he’s still capable of returning value against the Mets.
Honorable Mentions
Here is every pitcher who is not on The List and currently has a rotation spot. If I’m missing someone, it’s likely because I removed them from The List last week and forgot to add them here, or I meant to add them to The List and I got crossed up somewhere. Let me know if I’m missing someone, please!
J.T. Ginn (ATH) – He hit the IL and isn’t worth the stash. Pretty interesting with increased velo at first and more sink. Keep an eye on him for deeper leagues, but definitely not in 12-teamers.
JP Sears (ATH) – Sears is a week-to-week arm if there’s a great matchup and nothing better.
Osvaldo Bido (ATH) – Same goes for Bido.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) – With Strider hurt (again), AJSS is returning to the squad. I’m not going to get excited for this until he displays an approach he can consistently wield against batters. I have yet to see a reliable one.
Bryce Elder (ATL) – I guess he’s getting starts, but hot dang is it not fun.
Brandon Young (BAL) – He entered the rotation and did little to impress. We wait.
Cade Povich (BAL) – I don’t see a high enough ceiling to chase him in drafts, even for the first week. He can turn into a 12-teamer Toby, but for now, I’d rather take a better first matchup and go from there.
Charlie Morton (BAL) – He’s not a streamer I want to rely on.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – He’s flexed strikeouts at times and then they disappear randomly. Far too risky.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) – I’m not seeing enough from Sugano thus far to trust he can be the Toby we want him to be.
Kyle Gibson (BAL) – He’s expected to return this week against the Yankees. Oh no.
Sean Newcomb (BOS) – Wow, he actually did it. No, not even in a good matchup do I want to chase this.
Tanner Houck (BOS) – His feel is just not there. We can’t trust this.
Davis Martin (CWS) – The kick change! It’s a thing! And not as elite as the name makes it sound!
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – This has moments of being cool and then failing to locate the very next inning.
Martín Pérez (CWS) – He was moved to the 60-day IL with forearm soreness and it seems like this is a bigger deal than they initial made of it. Bummer.
Sean Burke (CWS) – His fastball velocity is still down and he’s working on putting it all together again.
Ben Lively (CLE) – He’s barely a 15-teamer Toby who can pull off a stream with the right matchup.
Logan Allen (CLE) – You’re seeing some decent results from Allen but the arsenal doesn’t speak to viability.
Ben Brown (CHC) – Without a third pitch, I don’t see this working out, even if he has moments when it does.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Carson Spiers (CIN) – Maybe Spiers can dot the edges against the Rangers next week? It’s super boring and at home. No thanks.
Germán Márquez (COL) – COL
Ryan Feltner (COL) – Story
Kyle Freeland (COL) – Broooo
Antonio Senzatela (COL) – oooooo
Bradley Blalock (COL) – ahhhhh. COL Story, broaaah? You get the point.
Chase Dollander (COL) – No, I didn’t want to add Dollander. It’s Coors + the Shag Rug and he’s not as filthy as you think. The velocity is there for a rare peak moment, but the fastball isn’t as electric as other young arms and the secondaries are still in development. Maybe he’s worth a play on the road, but even that’s risky.
Keider Montero (DET) – He’s not doing enough to get us excited to add him unless the perfect matchup comes along.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) – It looks like he’s starting on Sunday against the White Sox, but I’m not totally sure yet. Is it in a full capacity? Can he be efficient enough? Feel free to spec add, but I’ll wait until next week to add him to The List.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) – Oh right, Lorenzen. You’re making a Grave Mistake without the ratios you want on most nights.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – He’s not the worst AL-Only streamer. At least he’s able to go six.
Ben Casparius (LAD) – There’s a chance the Dodgers will stretch out Casparius to start in Glasnow’s spot if Tyler hits the IL. He’s just over 50 pitches at the moment, though, and it’ll take a few starts before we can get a good idea of what to expect, let alone carrying fantasy relevance. There’s a decent shot.
Bobby Miller (LAD) – He didn’t have a good slider or cutter in his return, going fastball and curve mostly and it hurt him in the end. We wait until he returns again and hopefully with a better slider.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – I don’t have Kershaw in the IL table because I personally don’t see a case where you’re dropping someone to activate Kershaw in his first (or second) start back from the IL in 12-teamers. He’s not that guy anymore, y’all.
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) – He’s back down to the minors. For now. Not worth stashing and only a matchup play.
Landon Knack (LAD) – He nearly got us the cheap Win, but Roberts pulled him early. Sigh.
Matt Sauer (LAD) – Noooope.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) – He’s getting the second game of the year for the Marlins. Yup. It’s possible the splitter is cooking…?
Connor Gillispie (MIA) – You know, he’s not the worst but far too unrefined.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) – He could be back on The List soon. The Dodgers are next and his ceiling needs to show itself as a plateau across multiple games before we buy in. Just get the slider working…
Eury Pérez (MIA) – He tossed a single frame in his first rehab start with two strikeouts and 98 mph velocity. Y’all should consider stashing in your IL spots soon if you still can.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) – The rehab starts have begun and I hope we see him return to the squad soon. He’s an arm to consider as a spec add when he does, though we’ve seen his promise fade rapidly in previous seasons. Don’t over-invest in this.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Aaron Civale (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Chad Patrick (MIL) – You don’t even know who he is.
DL Hall (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Logan Henderson (MIL) – Demoted to the minors after Tobias Myers returned. It’s a bummer, he deserves it more than Chad and Quinn BUT WHATEVER. He’s not on the stash list because I generally don’t think he’s that great. Fastball/changeup that need great command on a given night or it’ll be failure. He really needs a third offering to help mask the 92/93 mph heater (for when it isn’t located upstairs effectively).
Quinn Priester (MIL) – Priester is getting his shot and I’m seeing enough to hold onto him for the moment.
Tyler Alexander (MIL) – T-Lex was throwing no-hit ball! That’s awesome and it’s in the past.
Chris Paddack (MIN) – He’s been a touch better but I’m not seeing enough change to chase it.
David Festa (MIN) – He’s back in the minors with the return of PabLó. The command is still an issue and I don’t think he’s worth a stash.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – He’s doing just enough to prevent Zebby from getting the call. Nick, he had 93+ mph with nearly 20″ of vert on his four-seamer! Fine, it was good and likely not sustainable. WE WANT ZEBBY.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) – I get the most questions about stashing Zebby and while I’m not against it, I don’t feel the need to do so in my 12-teamers. There are plenty of strong arms for streams across the week and value now >> value later. He’ll be around the 60s/70s or so when he gets the call, hoping he can come through on his potential.
Griffin Canning (NYM) – I know, it’s a two-step this week! I simply don’t believe we’ll see what we just saw for another start. His slider and change are pretty much the same as last year and he’s always struggled locating the breaker down effectively.
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) – Cookie showed he can go five frames of 3 ER or less. That could be a Win!
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – As far as I know at the time of publication, there is no confirmation that Suárez will make a start before next Monday. If he were to return, he’d slot inside the standard Toby tier.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – Suárez is out for a few starts with a barking back. The Phillies have nothing but Walker to find some innings. Good luck.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – The ceiling isn’t worth the jump. Until he’s on the Rays. ONE DAY.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) – Is now the time to start stashing Bubba? I’d say so. It feels about two weeks away and given everything we’ve seen and read, he’ll be a Top 60ish starter with potential for much more.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) – There was a moment he could make it work. Sadly, he’s not a guy to believe it’ll work for 5+ frames.
Mitch Keller (PIT) – You really don’t need to hold Keller.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – I’m glad he’s had a moment of decency on the bump. Definitely not a believer, sadly.
Logan Evans (SEA) – He could be taking Gilbert’s spot in the rotation and there isn’t enough for us to chase at the moment. Maybe the command is better post-debut, though the stuff doesn’t seem overwhelming. Surely there are better options.
Andre Pallante (STL) – The stuff is…eh. I’d rather not.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – His four-seamer was one of the worst pitches in baseball last year and is now two ticks slower.
Steven Matz (STL) – We’re going to see Matz get a start as the Cardinals don’t have an off day this week. Think nothing of it.
Kyle Hart (SDP) – He’s not stretched out in full and I want to see him dominate with both sweepers and changeups before I can trust him to be a reliable Win-focused “TOBY”
Randy Vásquez (SDP) – I don’t dig his overall approach. There’s nothing to speaks to production in 12-teamers.
Zack Littell (TBR) – Is he going to be long for the rotation? Does it matter?
Patrick Corbin (TEX) – Corbin hath returned and no, he’s not a new man you can trust.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) – After throwing sinkers and curves, Rocker reverted to four-seamers and sliders and was much better, though he faced mostly RHB. He’s still struggling to get LHB out, but tossing 50%+ sliders is a good idea. I hope that sticks.
Easton Lucas (TOR) – We saw one good outing with his four-seamer upstairs and the other two showcasesd how little else he has, in addition to the pitch’s inconsistency.
Brad Lord (WSN) – WHO?!.GIF. He’s in for Soroka and expect nothing.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) – I kinda dig his potential, but y’all see the downside clear as day.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik SkubalT1 | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | KC | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 7 | Max FriedT2 | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 8 | Michael King | SD | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +2 |
| 9 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 11 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 12 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -3 |
| 13 | Dylan Cease | TOR | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 14 | Logan WebbT3 | SF | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +4 |
| 15 | Jack Flaherty | DET | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 16 | Bryan Woo | SEA | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +5 |
| 17 | Shane Baz | BAL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 18 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | +4 |
| 19 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 20 | Pablo López | MIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 21 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 22 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 23 | Chris SaleT4 | ATL | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 24 | Corbin Burnes | ARI | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +1 |
| 25 | Framber Valdez | DET | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +1 |
| 26 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Holly Wins Bonus | +4 |
| 27 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 28 | Robbie Ray | SF | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 29 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Nathan EovaldiT5 | TEX | Holly Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 31 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 32 | Kodai Senga | NYM | Holly Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 33 | Seth Lugo | KC | Holly Quality Starts | +3 |
| 34 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 35 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Holly Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 36 | Aaron Nola | PHI | Holly Quality Starts | +7 |
| 37 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Holly Quality Starts | +5 |
| 38 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | -4 |
| 39 | Bryce MillerT6 | SEA | Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 40 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | -1 |
| 41 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | -3 |
| 42 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +2 |
| 43 | Nick Pivetta | SD | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 44 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 45 | Landen RouppT7 | SF | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 46 | Tylor Megill | NYM | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +11 |
| 47 | Max Meyer | MIA | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 48 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Frizzle Quality Starts | +7 |
| 49 | Jackson Jobe | DET | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 50 | Kris Bubic | KC | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | - |
| 51 | Zac GallenT8 | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | -6 |
| 52 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +8 |
| 53 | Dustin May | STL | Holly Ratio Focused | -6 |
| 54 | Justin Verlander | DET | Holly Quality Starts | +4 |
| 55 | Reese Olson | DET | Holly Strikeout Upside | +19 |
| 56 | Clay Holmes | NYM | Holly Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 57 | Jake IrvinT9 | WSH | Frizzle Quality Starts | +4 |
| 58 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 59 | Jack Leiter | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 60 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Frizzle Wins Bonus | -11 |
| 61 | Shane Smith | CWS | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 62 | Lucas Giolito | SD | Frizzle Quality Starts Injury Risk | +UR |
| 63 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 64 | Taj Bradley | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 65 | David PetersonT10 | NYM | Toby Wins Bonus | +7 |
| 66 | Michael Wacha | KC | Toby Quality Starts | +10 |
| 67 | Casey Mize | DET | Toby Quality Starts | +22 |
| 68 | Chris Bassitt | BAL | Holly Ratio Focused | -20 |
| 69 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | +8 |
| 70 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | +10 |
| 71 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | +7 |
| 72 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Toby Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +12 |
| 73 | Roki SasakiT11 | LAD | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 74 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | Hipster Quality Starts | -15 |
| 75 | Bowden Francis | TOR | Hipster Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | -13 |
| 76 | Jordan Hicks | CWS | Frizzle Ratio Focused | -22 |
| 77 | Ryan Gusto | MIA | Frizzle Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 78 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Frizzle Quality Starts | -11 |
| 79 | Tony Gonsolin | SD | Frizzle Wins Bonus Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 80 | Jeffrey Springs | Hipster Quality Starts | -10 | |
| 81 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -10 |
| 82 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 83 | Nick MartinezT12 | TB | Toby Ratio Focused | -8 |
| 84 | Walker Buehler | SD | Toby Wins Bonus | -5 |
| 85 | Brady Singer | CIN | Toby Quality Starts | +3 |
| 86 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | Toby Quality Starts | +4 |
| 87 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 88 | Luis Severino | Toby Quality Starts | +3 | |
| 89 | José Soriano | LAA | Toby Quality Starts | -16 |
| 90 | Will Warren | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | -8 |
| 91 | Tyler AndersonT13 | SD | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +4 |
| 92 | Andrew Heaney | Vargas Rule Quality Starts | +5 | |
| 93 | Colin Rea | CHC | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 94 | Jose Quintana | COL | Vargas Rule Quality Starts | +6 |
| 95 | José Berríos | TOR | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 96 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 97 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +2 |
| 98 | Hayden Wesneski | HOU | Streaming Option Team Context Effect | -13 |
| 99 | Tobias Myers | NYM | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -6 |
| 100 | Erick Fedde | CWS | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -8 |
Labels Legend
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
