Even though it’s May, it’s still too early to panic. Overperforming or underperforming in April does not necessarily mean anything has actually changed. I still cannot stress that enough.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
Tier 1
- Ronald Acuña Jr. remains the top dog, but the rest of the Tier 1 pack is closing in. The strikeout rate is what concerns me more than anything.
- Oh look, Aaron Judge is striking out less and hitting home runs. What a surprise.
Tier 2
- Matt Olson is obviously not on the same pace as he was in 2023, but with his hard-hit rate still up at 58.7% I’m not at all worried. This seems more like a slump driven by bad luck than one driven by a decline of skills.
- Elly De La Cruz jumps into the top 15 after hitting his way back near the top of the lineup. In his last 15 games, ELDC has four home runs, 21 combined runs and RBI, and an astounding 12 stolen bases while slashing .298/.450/.596 with a 20% walk rate. The strikeouts will likely stay between 25-30%, but the improved walk rate and overall skill set makes that more than tolerable.
Tier 3
- Austin Riley is also slumping, and like this teammate Olson, the stats under the hood look absolutely fine.
- I’m not at all worried about Corey Seager. Everything looks fine except the results.
- CJ Abrams just keeps on hitting. Sure, his stolen base numbers aren’t quite what we saw in the second half of last year, but he remains well on his way to another 40-steal season while also looking like he could get to 25 home runs. Better yet, over his last 10 games, Abrams has four steals and almost as many walks (five) as strikeouts (six). As I suggested when projection 25 home runs, I think the power numbers will come down as the season wears on, but this so far looks like a full continuation of the second-half breakout we saw last season.
- Michael Harris II fell back to the bottom-third of the lineup, and the power outage remains an issue, so he falls a few spots here.
Tier 4
- Corbin Carroll’s slide stops here. Plenty of outlets have covered Carroll’s issues, which may or may not stem from shoulder issues he experienced last season. The speed will remain and keeps his floor fairly high, and with any luck, Carroll is able to get stronger as the season wears on. Stop asking if you can drop him. The answer will be no for quite a while longer.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette could fall even harder if their slumps continue. I’m more worried about Bo than Vlad, if only because Bo’s ceiling was already lower.
- Kudos to Christian Walker, who is on an absolute tear right now and keeping this Arizona offense respectable.
Tier 5
There is a net change of +3 to all players in this tier.
- I had hoped Adley Rutschman would take over as the clear top catcher, but William Contreras and Will Smith had other plans.
- Randy Arozarena has been streaky with deep slumps before, but this slump is lower than he’s been in years, and the strikeout rate keeps climbing. The 15-day rolling chart shows a strikeout rate that’s about as high as ever with a wOBA that’s about as low as ever, and I don’t love that. If the slump continues, expect Arozarena to fall to sixth or so in the lineup.
- The plate discipline Bryan Reynolds is showing is great, but the team around him is not nearly as strong as I hoped (and I didn’t think it would be all that strong to begin with), so the step up I believed would happen seems much less likely. Still a strong hitter who by all measures should be very similar to what he was last year, but probably not more.
Tier 6
There is a net change of +6 to all players in this tier.
- Salvador Perez will slow down eventually, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy this.
- Oneil Cruz looks lost right now. The talent is still in there and I’m not close to giving up, but it is not pretty right now.
- I’m still a believer in Gleyber Torres. Scoop him up where he’s been dropped.
- Give ’em heck, Tyler O’Neill. He’d rank higher if the injury risk wasn’t so extreme.
- This is going to be the true breakout year of Jarren Duran and that’s fun.
- I dreamed that Riley Greene would show us more power than the projections anticipated, and it’s happening. There might even be 25 home runs in this bat. Be still my beating heart. In addition, he’s taking plenty of walks and really just doing everything we could have asked for (except run, but he was never going to be a huge stolen base contributor anyway).
Tier 7
There is a net change of +5 to all players in this tier.
- Willy Adames is off to a much better start in 2024 than in 2023, so let’s hope that his May and June don’t follow what happened last year.
- Losing Trout hurts Taylor Ward’s upside due to the loss of counting stats, but he should keep hitting as long as he’s healthy.
- Jake Burger should be back soon, and that’s good news. I still think he’ll be a great third baseman for you this year.
- Christopher Morel’s improved plate discipline during his slump is fantastic. If you’ll recall, these slumps usually looked like a 35% strikeout rate and few walks, but a stable walk and strikeout rate during a slump is a significant sign of growth. Perhaps consistency is in reach after all.
Tier 8
There is a net change of +7 to all players in this tier.
- The season-long numbers for Brandon Nimmo will probably be fine, but the inconsistency will drive you nuts in standard leagues.
- Spencer Torkelson’s slow start is frustrating, just like it was last season. I think he’ll rebound strong as some point, just like last season. If possible, I think you should hold him, just like last season.
- Rhys Hoskins has looked exactly like the guy he was before missing a whole season and going to a new team, which is exceedingly rare.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand is going to figure it out and hit a bunch of home runs, I just don’t know when. Hopefully the hand injury is minor and that Statcast is correct in suggesting that much of CES’s issues are due to batted ball luck.
Tier 9
There is a net change of +7 to all players in this tier.
- Alec Bohm is one of the hottest bats in the league, but deep down I think he’s still the same guy we saw in 2023.
- Steven Kwan is halfway to a new career high in home runs, which means he has three. I had all but given up hope that he’d become a 10-12 home run bat, but here we are. The three stolen bases are par for the course, in case you were expecting more. Kwan will likely spike a month where he has six or seven, but he’s not likely to be a 30-steal guy.
- Ha-Seong Kim technically went up two spots, but considering everyone started at a plus-seven, it’s more accurate to see it as a fall of five spots due to his continued role in the bottom part of the lineup. At least he’s still stealing bases.
- Good to see Nathaniel Lowe healthy and looking well. A return to 25 home runs is exceedingly unlikely, but excellent ratios and 16-18 home runs is right in his wheelhouse.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is maddeningly inconsistent and I always underestimate just how inconsistent he is.
- With just two extra-base hits in his last 19 games, Ian Happ is becoming quite frustrating to roster in standard leagues despite the prime spots in the batting order.
Tier 10
There is a net change of +10 to all players in this tier.
- I’ve been unabashedly pro-Eduard Julien since the start of the offseason due to his elite decision-making skills and surprising pop. Sur,e he sits just a little more often than I’d like due to his awful track record against lefties, but for what it’s worth (which is really not much), Julien is slashing .278/.350/.500 in 20 plate appearances against them, albeit with a 40% strikeout rate. The overall strikeout rate for Julien should come down due to his intelligence at the plate, and if he plays against even some lefties, I believe Julien is a 22-25 home run bat with a strong OBP, not-that-harmful batting average, and decent counting stats now that the Twins remembered that they can hit the ball if they’d like.
- Nick Castellanos is finding his groove a little bit, but not enough for me to keep him ranked as he was. Those in three outfielder leagues might be able to find a suitable streaming replacement for Castellanos for now, but if at all possible, I would try to hold on for maybe a little longer.
- Jonathan India is going to lead off or hit second for the Reds by the end of May. I can feel it. He’s just the right choice for them with his consistent plate skills.
- Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford get no additional boost besides the net +10 from players falling that were ahead of them due to performance or injury. When you drafted these guys, you weren’t doing it for immediate results, right? Because that would have been a little reckless for two very young players with little experience in the upper minors.
- It’s Jordan Westburg’s first slump of 2024 (in terms of power) and it’s a very important one, as only Gunnar and Adley can survive an extended slump with all of their playing time intact due to the extreme depth on this team in the majors and minors. How quickly Westburg can break out of the slump and what level he returns to before slumping again will be the true measure of his foreseeable upside. Also notable, Westburg’s 15.2% swinging strike rate and 18.8% strikeout rate are absolutely incompatible. Either he needs to swing and miss less, or the strikeout rate is going to jump by a LOT.
Tier 11
There is a net change of +12 to all players in this tier.
- Wilyer Abreu keeps hitting in the heart of the order and playing against half of the lefties Boston has faced lately. Both are great signs about his chances of staying a regular in the middle of the lineup.
- Jake Cronenworth keeps hitting enough to matter and that, along with attrition, has him ranked higher than I anticipated. This, though, is likely close to the ceiling of where I’d rank him for a while. I just don’t think he will get to 20 home runs and the ratios are more “decent” than they are “good” in standard leagues. He gets a boost in points leagues, though.
- Colton Cowser actually dropped eight spots relative to his peers, and he’ll drop further if he doesn’t pick it up soon. As I’ve said before, the O’s are too deep.
- Lars Nootbaar has a great opportunity and should continue to hit high in the order, but he’s doing far too little with it.
- If I think India will be a leadoff hitter by the end of the month, what does that mean for Will Benson, especially with ELDC hitting second? Well, nothing good. I just think he’s too up-and-down and too strikeout prone to stay in the leadoff spot for any team for very long.
Tier 12
There is a net change of +20 to all players in this tier. Yes, really.
- Mark Canha is a solid little add at corner infield or outfield if you’re in need. He won’t wow us with power and won’t run, but the ratios and counting stats should be more than enough for us to live on for a while as we wait for other players to get healthy.
- Michael Busch is slumping and also hit the pine against each of the last three lefties the Cubs have seen. Both are significant bummers.
- Anthony Rizzo is back with a vengeance. Yes, he’s now hitless in his last three games, but just knowing the power is still reachable is a big deal.
- I am not that interested in Mike Tauchman as a full-season addition to a roster, but I am very interested for as long as he hits second.
- Alright, fine. Maybe Logan O’Hoppe isn’t going to breakout like I hoped in the near future. I still like the upside, but he’s approaching streaming territory in most 10- and 12-teamers
- Am I a Jackson Merrill hater? Am I so out of touch? No, it’s the people who had unreasonable expectations due to some too-early batted ball quality data who are wrong.
Tier 13
- Orlando Arcia is a fill-in middle infielder in standard leagues and I will continue to stand by that. The streaks and slumps are pretty intense which will distort the overall view, but the full season picture remains the same as ever.
- Jorge Polanco continues to struggle and I’m completely fine with moving on if your wire has anything at all available at second or third, which it might due to the number of reports I get about Gleyber being dropped.
- Ceddanne Rafaela is a 20 home run, 20 stolen base type of player who is weirdly eligible at both shortstop and outfield. The huge game was cool, but all it really did was get him back on the track I thought he’d be on anyway.
- Wenceel Pérez is getting an extended look in the middle of the order for Detroit and I’m all for it. He’s likely a 15-17 home run type of player with decent ratios long term, but in the short term he’s a viable plug-in if you’ve got a hole in the outfield.
- Chas McCormick looks awfully expendable these days, even if I think the Astros offense is due for an explosion soon.
- Andy Pages is getting plenty of run as an everyday outfielder, though the ratios will take a tumble eventually as his line drive rate isn’t likely to stay above 25% for long. The power is fairly legitimate though, and as an everyday player I think he’d get to 20 or so.
- Luis Rengifo is viable for his versatility, but he will likely go back to being a very average hitter soon. He’s still rosterable in lots of formats when that happens, though, because he can fill so many holes. Hopefully he finds his way to the top of the lineup consistently.
- Travis d’Arnaud is the catcher of the week, which is a thing I’m doing now apparently. Go ahead and scoop him up if you can if you need a streamer.
Taxi Squad
This year, the Taxi Squad will be a handful of players at each position who either are on the cusp of the list or who have been hot topics of late.
Another update: Hitters who appear to be out for an extended period of time will end up in the Taxi Squad until they are close to returning to the roster. Higher ranked players who are only out a few weeks will fall on the list but will generally move up as they get closer to a return.
Catcher
- Danny Jansen (C, TOR) — Returning to action soon and should get the majority of starts behind the dish.
- Luis Campusano (C, SDP) — 15 home runs and a good average are still useful at catcher.
- Elias Díaz (C, COL) — Always streamable at home.
- Shea Langeliers (C, OAK) — Classic power-hitting catcher with no contact skills who is very streaky.
- Connor Wong (C/2B, BOS) — Makes a ton of contact and getting batted ball luck, but can fill in for you when the matchups are right.
First Base
- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) — Likely a strict platoon, at least for now.
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — It’s a strict platoon. Stream against righties and nothing else.
- LaMonte Wade Jr.(1B/OF) — Stuck in a platoon and striking out way more than normal, but leads off.
- Ty France (1B, SEA) — The situation is decent and the playing time is secure, but he’s just a streamer in most 10- and 12-team leagues.
- Connor Joe (1B/OF, PIT) — Hits lefties well and streamable when the schedule is right.
- Matt Mervis (1B, CHC) — Cubs will only see one lefty over the next three series, so Mervis should play.
- Carlos Santana (1B, MIN) — He’s hot and can be useful in spurts as a fill-in.
- Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — He’ll be back on the list once we have some idea of a return date.
Second Base
- Josh Rojas (2B/3B, SEA) — Gets hot from time to time, but there isn’t a ton of long-term upside.
- Nolan Gorman (2B, STL) — A streaky power hitter who is now at the bottom of the order.
- Thairo Estrada (2B/SS, SFG) — He stole a base and has shown some signs of life, but not enough for me to rank him yet. Still hitting sixth or lower.
- José Fermín (2B, STL) — Amazing plate discipline in triple-A so far, but don’t expect much (if any) power.
- Brandon Drury (1B/2B, LAA) — Not hitting right now but should become serviceable eventually.
- Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL) — Streamable when in Coors.
Third Base
- Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Slightly sluggish in his first few games back, plus the rays infield is quite crowded.
- Tyler Freeman (2B/3B/OF) — Decent prospect with a good hit tool and some speed but very limited pop.
- Anthony Rendon (3B, LAA) — I’d probably keep an eye on him when he returns. If he keeps leading off, I’m interested.
- Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — There’s no room for him but the power and plate discipline (prior to 2024) is exciting.
- Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Will likely be a top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — Will likely be a top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — Has 15 home run pop and decent ratios, which is streamable at times.
Shortstop
- Masyn Winn (SS, STL) — Getting a bit lucky, but very interesting if he can get out of the bottom of the order and/or keep running.
- Blaze Alexander (SS, ARI) — Still hasn’t started against two righties in a row.
- J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) — Don’t stash him on your IL, but let’s see where he’s hitting when he’s back.
- Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL) — Long-term outlook hasn’t changed, but the O’s are in a tough spot.
- Carlos Correa (SS, MIN) — Back from the IL, but he’s just a points and ratios play.
Outfield/DH
- Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — He should be back this season and should definitely be stashed on ILs. Should be in the top 25-35 on his return.
- Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) — He’s ramping up, but not ready for a rehab. Should be around 80-100 or so when he’s back. This isn’t Suzuki’s first core injury, which makes it a little scarier.
- Lane Thomas (OF, WAS) — Without a timetable to return, but will be around 80-100 when he’s back.
- J.D. Martinez (DH, NYM) — I don’t mind stashing him for power upside.
- Tyler Nevin (OF, OAK) — Very little long-term appeal, but streamable.
- Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Strikes out a ton and very streaky, but fine to stream.
- Jesse Winker (OF, WAS) — In a slump right now. Very curious to see how quickly he can bounce back.
- Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) — This recent power outburst is likely a mirage, but he’s streamable in most points formats.
- Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK) — The home runs aren’t going to stick around, but the plate discipline might.
- James Wood (OF, WAS) — Top-10 prospect with plenty of pop but may not be up until mid-summer (or later).
- Blake Perkins (OF, MIL) — Nothing under the hood suggests this recent production is sustainable.
- Richie Palacios (OF, TBR) — The roster will get more crowded soon, but when he plays he’s hit in the heart of the order and has been effective.
- Joey Loperfido (OF, HOU) — He’s up and should hit some home runs, but the strikeout rate will determine how long he can stay up and how often he plays.
- Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — I’m not sure why they even called him up.
- Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — If you want a silver lining, he rebounded nicely after his last trip to the minors.
- Jacob Young (OF, WAS) — He’s super hot, but still hits ninth. The speed is real, but the batting average will likely be mid at best and the counting stats will fade.
- JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) — Mildly intriguing as a streamer in OBP leagues.
- Brent Rooker (OF, OAK) — Power, strikeouts, and streaks. Same as always.
- Jo Adell (OF, LAA) — The power is very real, but being 50% on steal attempts is a concern and there’s a fairly long record of Adell falling apart due to strikeouts. You can be excited, but also be very careful.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)
Any concerns about Arenado’s lack of power?
He had some stretches like this last season too. I’d be worried if I expected 30 HR, but 22-25 still seems right.
Scott, Go Tigers. Are you going to put Tommy Pham back on The List?
Cheers.
Meh. Taxi Squad, maybe. The ChiSox don’t run that much, they are terrible on offense, and LuBob is probably back in a month or so.
A.Giminez & I.Happ are available on WW in 5×5 points league. Would you drop any of the following for one or both of them:
J.Merrill, C.Cowser, A.Pages, & J.Adell.
Thank you.
That’s a pretty good wire. Happ is at his best in points but in a week or two if he’s still slumping I don’t mind streaming it in and out. Happ will have a decent season overall, probably, but he’s an accumulator, not a game-breaker.
Surprised to see JD Martinez unranked (I know you mentioned him below). Given how good he was last season and the fact he hits behind some really goof hitters, feels like there are a bunch of guys from 120-150 I’d prefer taking a stab on JD over.
The Taxi Squad and the guys in the last 1 or 2 tiers aren’t really separated by much. If you wanted to gamble on JD, that’s fine. I worry a bit still about the Ks and how often he’ll play, but he’s potentially viable.
How interested are you in Friedl coming back soon?
Thoughts on Giminez, please.
any love for jurikson Profar? Former top prospect, finding his groove in San Diego or just a hot month?
I have to imagine Paul Goldschmidt leaving the rankings entirely when the newest 150 list comes out on Thursday, he’s been absolutely dreadful so far this year.
Scott ,
Has Cody Bellinger been overlooked?
Does a healthy Brandon Lowe crack the next list? If so, where?