Whether it’s early in the season, the middle of July, or late in the year, it’s always good to know where you stand in your Roto league.
Of course, perusing your league’s standings accomplishes that fairly quickly. However, numbers can often be misleading. Is your team producing at the level it should be as a league leader compared to the vast majority of other Roto leagues?
Are there underperforming players on your team, or available via waivers each week that could help you significantly in specific, or multiple, categories moving forward? This column aims to, and will, answer all those questions on a weekly basis, regardless of league size.
Essentially, it’s an almanac for Roto leagues and NFBC or TGFBI leagues, showing you not only the watermarks your team should be hitting category-wise to be truly elite but also the specific players that will help you get there. What’s more, it’ll also cover the top performers in each category, as well as some under-the-radar options for each metric as well.
Notes
A couple of quick notes before we begin. For metrics like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and on-base percentage, only qualified or close to qualified pitchers and hitters (respectively) were considered, especially at this time of year with smaller sample sizes running rampant.
Additionally, all rostered rate numbers are via FantasyPros. Furthermore, in part due to NFBC leagues, all stats (as well as the rostered data) are via the previous week’s Sunday.
All the data in terms of Roto league production is from last year’s numbers.
Where You Should Be Producing In Each Category
Below is data for both 15-team and 12-team Roto leagues from last season and the average statistical totals that each placed team finished with. This is for the entirety of a season. Basically, if you want to do well in these two formats, these are the season-long watermarks to shoot for.
There’s also SGP data for both 15-team and 12-team formats.
Before we get any further, a massive thank you to Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland for getting a hold of the data.
And now, without further ado, the 15-team data, which comes from 2023 TGFBI leagues:
15-Team Leagues
(Quick reminder, the far left-hand column is where the team finished in the standings.)
And here’s the 15-team, SGP data:
12-Team Leagues
And now for the 12-team, SGP data:
Category Power Rankings
Batting Average (AVG)
Leaders
Of Note: Ezequiel Tovar.
Generally speaking, Rockies batters have tended to produce better at Coors Field in most all hitting categories, at least compared to their road numbers. And while Tovar has hit for a higher average at home this season by a considerable margin, his power production is worth pointing out here.
The shortstop has collected all but two of his 11 home runs on the road this season. It’s a promising trend to track for the 22-year-old infielder, who hit .290 with a .313 on-base percentage, the aforementioned 11 home runs, as well as four stolen bases, an 8.9% barrel rate and a .201 ISO in his first 311 plate appearances this season.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Heliot Ramos.
This feels like the last chance to add Ramos before his rostered rate jumps considerably. The outfielder is up to eight home runs, a .326 average and a .404 on-base percentage (plus a stolen base) in his first 151 plate appearances in the Majors this season. For reference, that’s more than J.T Realmuto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Austin Riley have this season (as of the beginning of play on Monday). The lowest number of plate appearances this season from that group? Realmuto with .223. The highest total? Rodriguez with 313.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Leaders
Of Note: Carlos Correa.
One of the league’s best hitters since the start of May, Correa won’t steal many bases, but in every other fantasy category he has elite upside.
Since May 1, the slugger is batting .321 with a .368 on-base percentage, a .368 on-base percentage, seven home runs, a 154 wRC+, a 12.5% barrel rate and a 47.7% hard-hit rate.
He’s an ideal fantasy trade target for fantasy managers with an strong stolen base threat already on their roster like José Caballero or Jacob Young.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Patrick Bailey.
Patrick Bailey’s breakout season is notable for a few reasons. First and foremost is the plate discipline. The catcher, admittedly, always showcased strong walk rates in the minors. However, he walked just 5.9% of the time as a rookie in 2023.
This year, that number is well into double-digit territory at 10.9%. Unsurprisingly, that metric has come with a significant cut down in his chase and whiff rates as well.
What’s equally notable is what Bailey is doing when he does make contact.
The 25-year-old sits in the 90th percentile or better in both xwOBA and xBA. His 4.1% barrel rate isn’t tremendously high, but with so much quality contact and a strong walk rate, he has top-10 fantasy potential at his position moving forward. He’s a must-add in leagues with 12 or more teams.
Home Runs (HR)
Leaders
Of Note: Corey Seager.
Corey Seager’s 2024 production isn’t quite on par with his excellent 2023 season. And while it remains to be seen if either the shortstop’s surface-level metrics or underlying metrics will reach the highs they did in his previous season, Seager’s quality of contact numbers point to significantly better production moving forward.
Elite even, with xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate numbers in the 90th percentile or better league-wide. Of course, that’s not entirely surprising considering Seager’s track record. Now might be the time to trade for him before the production gets even better, even if the cost to acquire the star shortstop via trade isn’t on the low side of things.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jeimer Candelario.
Candelario’s season-long numbers still look a bit down in places after a slow start, one that featured the infielder hitting .189 with a .282 on-base percentage, a .292 wOBA, a 82 wRC+ and three home runs in his first 103 plate appearances prior to May 1.
However, since then the infielder has been decidedly more impactful at the plate, hitting .291 with a .329 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and a pair of stolen bases in his next 158 plate appearances. His wOBA and wRC+ during that span sit at .380 and 142 respectively.
And while the on-base percentage, and walk rate with it, are still a bit on the low side, thus dampening Candelario’s fantasy value and current upside a bit in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring, the power production has been legitimate.
During that stretch, Candelario has logged a 9.2% barrel rate, right in line with, and actually better in places, than what he’s logged each season since 2020 when he broke out at the plate.
Since then, the infielder’s season-long barrel rates have finished at (in order from 2020 onwards), 10.3%, 9.0%, 8.3%, and 7.9%.
With the power returning and a launch pad of a home ballpark to play half of his games in, plus fantasy eligibility at both infield corners, the former Tiger should (in theory) see his rostered rate increase steadily moving forward.
Add him now via waivers before that happens.
Runs Scored (R)
Leaders
Of Note: Christian Walker.
Don’t let Walker’s modest .257 average and .337 on-base percentage fool you, because he’s currently in the midst of a stellar season, one we’re probably not talking enough about.
The first baseman sits in the 80th percentile or better in xwOBA, xSLG, average bad speed, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. He’s also dropped his chase rate while also collecting barrels much more often. The slugger’s barrel rate was 11.4% last season and 11.5% the year before. In those two years, years where he finished with plate appearances above 660, Walker finished with 33 and 36 home runs respectively.
This year, in 309 plate appearances, his barrel rate is at 16.6%.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Willi Castro.
Castro has been on a tear at the plate as of late, so much so that he’s started to hit leadoff at times for Minnesota in the past few weeks.
Overall, the veteran is batting .267 with a .411 on-base percentage, a home run, a stolen base, a .400 slugging percentage, a .371 wOBA, and a 144 wRC+ in 56 plate appearances since fellow infielder Eduard Julien was optioned to Triple—thus opening up additional playing time at second base.
Castro has still seen time in the outfield during that stretch, but the bulk of his starts have come at second base.
His underlying metrics during that span, those that include a .344 BABIP, a 9.1% barrel rate, and a 39.4% hard-hit rate, are a mixed bag at best. However, as long as Castro continues to see a decent amount of starts leading off—four of his last seven starts have come hitting first for the Twins—his fantasy ceiling and rostered rate should jump considerably.
RBI
Leaders
Of Note: Willy Adames.
A fixture in the middle of the Brewers lineup and one of the main beneficiaries (where fantasy production is concerned) of William Contreras‘ excellent season so far, Adames is on his way to perhaps his best-ever fantasy campaign.
Which is notable considering Adames has tallied at least 24 home runs, 73 runs scored and 73 RBI in each of the last three seasons.
The Brewers shortstop has logged a 10.7% barrel rate, a career-low (if the season ended today) 21.7% strikeout rate, and a 119 wRC+ in 309 plate appearances. Most importantly, he’s added 12 home runs, 51 RBI, and 10 stolen bases.
The stolen bases are particularly significant considering Adames hasn’t stolen more than eight in a single season prior to this year.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Jo Adell.
Jo Adell is striking out a lot—31% of the time to be precise.
That, and a .214 BABIP, have kept his average (.193) and on-base percentage (.255) fairly low. But, the outfielder has impact fantasy upside, even if the strikeouts continue.
The 25-year-old has logged elite bat speed numbers so far, to go along with a 13.8% barrel rate and a 46.2% hard-hit rate. With 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, there’s real 20-20 potential this season for the outfielder. Once the BABIP starts to even out he’ll likely be a starting fantasy outfielder in leagues with 12 or more teams.
Stolen Bases (SB)
Leaders
Of Note: Ha-Seong Kim.
Like Seager, Kim stands out as an impact fantasy trade candidate to acquire, one who’s already producing above-average fantasy numbers, but with the potential (and very real possibility) that he’ll be even more productive moving forward.
The Padres infielder already provides a quality fantasy floor with above-average stolen base production, solid power numbers, and fantasy versatility with eligibility at every infield spot not named first base. However, he’s been elite so far at making contact, but has rather low batting average and BABIP numbers at the same time.
Positive regression is coming.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Dylan Moore.
One of a couple of players on this list with the potential to reach 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this season, Moore has been one of the Mariners’ more underrated (and better) fantasy performers so far.
Capable of playing all over the diamond, with fantasy eligibility at second base, shortstop, third base, and in the outfield to boot, Moore should realistically be a starter in 14-team (and larger) leagues. However given his versatility and consistent role in Seattle at the moment, he’s an ideal bench addition for fantasy managers regardless of league size.
Pitchers
Strikeouts (K)
Leaders
Of Note: Michael King.
So much for Michael King’s early-season struggles.
After an uneven start to life on the mound with the Padres, King has allowed just 13 earned runs in his last eight starts, spanning 47 innings. And, six of those earned runs came in one outlier of a start at home to the Rockies.
Otherwise, King owns a 2.49 ERA and a 2.53 ERA since May 4, striking out 55 batters compared to just 13 walks allowed in 47 innings.
He’s back to looking like the pitcher who impressed so much last year in moving to the rotation for the Yankees.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Zack Littell.
Littell has been markedly consistent for the Tampa Bay Rays. Outside of two outlier starts, one of which came in his last outing at Atlanta, the right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 11 starts.
The only start not accounted for there was one in which he gave up…four earned runs.
Furthermore, in addition to the quality strikeout total, Littell has been similarly consistent in limiting mistakes. He’s allowed just 13 walks and 10 home runs on the season. Four of those 10 homers came in the aforementioned pair of outliers starts, while five of Littell’s 13 walks took place in his first three starts of the season, all coming before April 11.
ERA
Leaders
Of Note: Marcus Stroman.
Stroman has provided quality fantasy production so far, with six pitcher wins and a 3.08 ERA in 15 starts spanning 84.2 innings for the New York Yankees this season.
Those are both good things and have surely both helped fantasy managers (particularly those in Roto formats). But, Stroman’s stat line also includes a 4.76 FIP, something that’s, simply put, not as good.
With reasonably close strikeout (17.1%) and walk (10.6%) rates, it might be time to trade Stroman for either a starter with better underlying metrics or perhaps reinforcements elsewhere on the roster.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Ben Lively.
Lively has so far been able to outperform unideal underlying metrics, namely a 42.9% hard-hit rate, just a 19.6% whiff rate, an 8.2% barrel rate, and a 36.5% ground ball rate, to log a 3.02 ERA in his first 59.2 innings this season.
However, there’s nearly a run difference between that ERA and his FIP (4.06) plus a slightly elevated 1.21 homers allowed per nine innings rate.
The right-hander gave up six hits, four earned runs, three walks, and a home run in his last start, coming in four innings at Toronto on Sunday. It may be a statistical outlier for a pitcher who hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start prior to the outing. Perhaps he can keep outperforming some of his peripherals. However, there’s also a chance it could be the beginning of statistical regression starting to creep in.
Now might be the time to work out a trade to deal the Cleveland starter if he’s on your fantasy team.
Wins (W)
Leaders
Of Note: Gavin Stone.
It’s been a breakout season for Stone, who’s logged a 3.01 ERA and a 3.61 FIP in his first 74.2 innings this year (13 starts). What’s more, supported by the Dodgers’ seemingly eternally elite lineup, the starter has accumulated seven pitcher wins.
He’s struck out just 56 batters so far, and while that number could be higher, the low ERA number and high win total keep Stone firmly in the mix as a more than-quality fantasy rotation option.
Speaking of rotation options, it doesn’t look like he’ll be leaving the Dodgers’ rotation anytime soon, what with Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto recently landing on the injured list.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: MacKenzie Gore.
Each week, MacKenzie Gore shows up on these rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues leaders boards and each week it feels like a last chance to add him before his rostered rate skyrockets. And yet, here Gore still is with a rostered rate well below 50%.
That should (and probably needs to) change given how well he’s pitching. The starter has accumulated six pitcher wins in 14 starts despite pitching for a Nationals team that has struggled to score runs at times.
Furthermore, and most importantly, only 12 qualified starters are sporting a lower FIP than Gore (2.93). Just nine have a higher strikeout rate than the Washington starter at 28.3%.
Here’s a list of pitchers with a lower strikeout rate and a higher FIP than Gore: Jared Jones, Zack Wheeler, Luis Castillo, Ronel Blanco, Corbin Burnes, Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodón, Kevin Gausman, and George Kirby.
Of all the players listed in the entirety of this week’s column, Gore might be the most noteworthy must-add of the bunch.
Quality Starts (QS)
Leaders
Of Note: Carlos Rodón.
Rodon allowed seven hits, five earned runs, and three walks in his last outing in Boston. Though he also struck out seven during that start.
The biggest thing though, is that the outing looks like an outlier on paper. Other than that start in Boston and a May 2 outing in Baltimore, Rodon has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his 13 other starts. Furthermore, he’s struck out six or more batters five times during that stretch.
With a further nine pitcher wins on the season, the veteran once again looks like a borderline top-25 fantasy starter.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Cal Quantrill.
Despite moving from Cleveland to Colorado in the offseason, Cal Quantrill has actually managed to considerably improve his numbers across the board. A 47.4% ground ball rate and a .269 BABIP are certainly key factors here, but the veteran has logged a 3.30 ERA and a 4.34 FIP in 79 innings entering play Monday.
What’s more, he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in his last nine starts, which is a fairly remarkable feat for any pitcher who makes half of their starts at Coors Field.
Except…half of those starts by Quantrill didn’t come at Coors Field. Just two of his nine outings did. In those seven road starts, the hurler allowed just seven combined earned runs in 33 road innings, four of which came in one start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
All told, just four of the former Cleveland pitcher’s 14 starts have come at home. He’s clearly been solid enough (despite lower strikeout numbers like 6.38 punch-outs per nine frames) to warrant a look as a streaming option in deeper leagues when he’s on the road in the right matchups. But fantasy managers might be better off looking elsewhere for long-term rotation reinforcements.
Saves (SV)
Leaders
Of Note: Alexis Díaz.
The good news is that Alexis Díaz has 15 saves for the Cincinnati Reds so far. The bad news is that he’s also sporting a 5.47 ERA in 26.1 innings in the process.
So, not ideal.
Pitching in Cincinnati regularly isn’t really ideal either, particularly for a pitcher who is walking 6.49 batters per nine innings. Though, it is worth noting that Diaz is also surrendering just 0.34 homers per nine frames.
Ultimately, the saves are far too valuable from a fantasy standpoint so (for fantasy managers who’ve benefited from Diaz’ save total) it might be time to start scanning the trade market for starters who routinely log low WHIP numbers, to help offset Diaz’s walks and WHIP in Roto leagues.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Michael Kopech.
There are three true outcome hitters, those who oftentimes provide a home run, a walk, or a strikeout in all their plate appearances.
Kopech isn’t exactly the pitching equivalent. But, for as many bats as he’s missed—what with a 32.3% strikeout rate and a 30.7% whiff rate— he’s also struggled mightily in giving up barrels (with a 14.9% barrel rate) and walks (Kopech’s walk rate sits at 13.5%).
The former starter also has recorded just three saves since April 17, the last of which came on May 15, though admittedly some of that may be more on the White Sox as a team struggling than entirely due to Kopech’s struggles.
If there’s a closer-needy team in your league who is willing to gamble on the strikeout upside of the fact that Kopech could be traded in real life, now might be the time to make a move. Because while the strikeouts and potential of moving to a better team (one with more save chances) would certainly help, if the reliever keeps up barrels at this rate, he’s going to be hard to trust in fantasy lineups.
WHIP
Leaders
Of Note: Corbin Burnes.
Corbin Burnes has been excellent for the Orioles in his debut season in Baltimore, pitching extremely effectively (to put it plainly) and benefiting from a pitcher-friendly home park and a similarly excellent lineup providing him run support.
However, the strikeouts haven’t been quite what we’re used to seeing with Burnes in the past. And while it seems unlikely that the starter’s past, career-best strikeout numbers will suddenly return, there’s optimism for his strikeout rate improving a bit as the season goes on based on some of his underlying data. And while that might not seem consequential, additional strikeouts for arguably a top-25 overall player could be significant.
Rostered in 50% or Fewer Leagues
Of Note: Taj Bradley.
Like MacKenzie Gore, Bradley’s rostered rate is starting low for a pitcher with his upside and ability.
Admittedly, the right-hander does sport a 4.23 ERA and a 4.29 FIP while surrendering 1.88 home runs per nine innings in 38.1 frames of work at the Major League level this season.
Yet, much of those relatively bloated numbers are down to a June 1 start in Baltimore against the Orioles in which Bradley allowed nine hits, nine earned runs, four home runs, and three walks while recording just 10 outs. He’s given up four total home runs in his other six starts combined. Furthermore, in those other six outings, the starter has failed to strike out at least six batters just once. In fact, he’s topped double-digit strikeouts twice during that span.
Furthermore, in his next outing after that disastrous Baltimore start, Bradley limited the same Orioles team to three hits, a walk, and a home run in 5.0 innings while striking out seven.