Even though it’s May, it’s still too early to panic. Overperforming or underperforming in April does not necessarily mean anything has actually changed. I still cannot stress that enough.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
Tier 1
- Ronald Acuña Jr. is still a top-30 fantasy hitter per the FanGraphs Auction Calculator so far in 2024. That’s what he looks like at his worst. The strikeout rate should at least get to where it was in 2022, and the rest will follow.
- Shohei Ohtani is an unstoppable machine. Four feels too low, but Mookie Betts and his eligibility at second and short is too much to pass up.
- You could argue that I somehow underrated each player on an individual basis in this first tier. The top talent in MLB is as deep as I can ever remember it being.
Tier 2
- The big news here is that Julio Rodríguez leads off this tier instead of being in the bottom of the one above it. The volatility of J-Rod is what got me to do it. I know he’ll be fine in the end, but the ups and downs are rough.
- Matt Olson will be fine. Everything under the hood in terms of exit velocity and batted balls looks to be just fine.
- Elly De La Cruz will have slumps throughout the season that will look ugly at times, but have patience. They aren’t signs he’s been “figured out”, they are merely adjustment periods. Every player goes through them, and for Elly, they look like strikeout spikes. On the bright side, when he’s whiffing he’s getting on base just enough to run like crazy.
Tier 3
- Austin Riley will be fine. Everything under the hood in terms of exit velocity and batted balls looks to be just fine. Yes, this was a copy-paste of Olson, and that’s because their situations are very similar.
- Have a day, Marcus Semien. He’s hitting the ball a little harder than his season-long averages from recent years, so maybe he can get to 30 home runs for the first time since 2021.
- Pete Alonso is going through a pretty nasty slump over his last 10 games, but I’m not really that concerned. The plate discipline looks fine and he’s getting the ball in the air, so the home runs will likely be back soon.
- Gunnar Henderson is striking out more of late, which makes sense during slumps due to his aggression at the plate but it’s nothing I am concerned about.
Tier 4
There is a net change of +2 to all players in this tier.
- Michael Harris II is slumping right now, and while I didn’t drag him down in the rankings, I did put him in a lower tier, mostly due to the fact that a return to hitting second looks mostly impossible right now.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been ranked lower here than projections suggested he should have been ranked, and that’s because I see him more as a 23-25 home run hitter instead of a 30 home run hitter due to the steady decline in power over the last few seasons.
- Corbin Carroll is leading off again, but until we see some consistent power he’s unlikely to move back into the top 25.
- Randy Arozarena is streaky and that goes both ways.
Tier 5
There is a net change of +3 to most players in this tier.
- William Contreras is showing extremely strong plate discipline and has extended his on-base streak to 16 games. The power is maybe a little lighter than some folks hoped for, but he hits first or second every day and looks like he’ll provide better ratios than we originally expected (and we expected them to be pretty good).
- Josh Naylor might be due for a rankings boost sometime soon as he continues to show an elevated fly ball rate and is over halfway to his 2023 home run total. The abundance of grounders was what held him back in years prior, and if that issue is resolved then we might be looking at someone who can approach the top 30.
- Welcome back, Cody Bellinger. He’s still a bit of an enigma after succeeding in 2023 despite very lackluster batted ball quality (according to Statcast), but I am giving him some benefit of the doubt here.
Tier 6
There is a net change of + to all players in this tier.
- Christopher Morel dug out of that mid-April slump and went right to work on a hot streak. It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster, but if he keeps bouncing back from slumps in a matter of two to three weeks instead of two months, then we can start getting very excited.
- I was high on Riley Greene because I felt he had more pop than projections were giving him credit for, but to get there he’d need to hit the ball in the air. Well he’s doing just that and the results are exciting. Sure, the goose egg in the stolen base column is annoying, but Greene is doing all the stuff we like to see young players do as they go progress. He’s walking more, the strikeout rate is fairly steady, and he’s turning grounders into fly balls. His nine home runs is just two shy of the 11 he hit over 99 games last year and if he can stay healthy, I think we could be looking at a 25 home run bat who could steal 10 bases and post solid ratios while hitting at or near the top of the order. I also think the healthy floor is quite high even if the grounders come back. His upside isn’t as high as Morel’s, but the floor is significantly higher.
- Oneil Cruz is slowly turning it around in terms of strikeouts, but the walk rate has stayed very low of late and he’s hitting a lot of stuff on the ground. I hoped he’d pick up where he left off before his injury, but it looks like Cruz has quite a bit more adjusting to do before we see that insane power get unlocked.
- I don’t even know how to recalibrate expectations for Bo Bichette. I think it’s supposed to be something like 20 home runs, 10 steals, and good ratios? Even that feels distant.
Tier 7
- The home run and stolen base totals from Dansby Swanson are fine, I guess, and bad luck appears to be a major factor in the poor ratios. Still, the lower fly ball rate from 2023 has remained and that puts a lower ceiling on the potential home run totals. A return to 25 seems a bit unlikely at this point, especially if the knee issue becomes something more.
- Tyler ONeill is striking out in bunches right now, but I’m not overly concerned yet in terms of season-long upside. Some volatility should be expected.
- Yandy Díaz is likely to be the guy from 2021 and 2022 who hit maybe a dozen home runs with excellent ratios. The barrel rate is down, but I except it’ll bounce back a little and the numbers will rebound after a hot streak or two. That fly ball spike of early 2023 appears to be a fluke, though, and it’s what drove the extra home runs.
- I hope Yainer Diaz finds his power soon. At least the ratios have been good.
- I’m not panicking about Paul Goldschmidt yet but I am continuously recalibrating (read: lowering) what kind of floor to expect.
- Xander Bogaerts is hitting the ball with quite a bit less power than years past, and that’s a concern as he didn’t exactly hit the ball hard to begin with. The home run and stolen base projections were already kind of lackluster, and if he doesn’t find more pop soon, then it will be very difficult to see him as a top-100 hitter.
Tier 8
- Nico Hoerner is back to leading off for the Cubs, which is great. I’m still suspicious of the stolen bases as they all came against the Mets. The Mets are atrocious at stopping runners and have stopped just three of the 55 base stealers they’ve faced. No team has seen as many stolen base attempts against them as the Mets, and no one has caught fewer base stealers. It’s incredible.
- Jake Burger might still have a little rust to shake off, but I’m not that worried about a rough series on the road on the other side of the country while being fresh off the IL.
- Sure, Spencer Steer has a paltry 27 wRC+ over his last 16 games, but thanks to that double-digit walk rate and the fact he’s on an insanely aggressive team, he’s managed six steals in that stretch. It doesn’t make up for everything, but it’ll do in a pinch.
Tier 9
There is a net change of +7 to all players in this tier.
- I really hoped Evan Carter would run more, but it hasn’t happened yet. That caps his upside as I think the power is likely to have a ceiling somewhere around 20 home runs in a full season.
- Jeremy Peña and his improved strikeout rate is quite interesting, as are the five steals in just 36 games. I don’t expect the 25.4% line drive rate to continue, but as long as those extra liners don’t all turn into grounders, we could be looking at a guy who could hit .280 instead of .260.
- Nick Castellanos might be showing of signs of life, so scoop him up if he’s been dropped.
- Spencer Torkelson still has zero home runs, which is frustrating, but I’m still holding out hope that he can find a path to 28 the rest of the way. It’s a batted ball quality problem and he’s getting too far under a lot of pitches he should be punishing (40.8% of his batted balls are classified as Unders, which is significantly higher than we saw in years past), which is why the Statcast data is so ugly. The question isn’t if he’ll figure it out, but instead how long it will take.
- Jake Cronenworth continues to hit the ball well and is hitting third. It’s weird to see a guy who isn’t really doing anything different besides hitting the ball harder, and it all looks REALLY similar to the little run he made when he debuted in 2020. The question is how long he can keep it up. Another month? Sure. The entire first half? I’m not betting on it. The whole season? Extremely unlikely.
Tier 10
There is a net change of +10 to all players in this tier.
- A lot of players are making their way back to Tampa Bay, but I think José Caballero is safe as the everyday shortstop.
- Jonathan India isn’t to the top of the lineup against righties, but he’ll be there against lefties and hit fifth or six against righties.
Tier 11
There is a net change of +15 to all players in this tier.
- Wilyer Abreu has struck out quite a bit lately, but at least he’s also taken some walks, right? He’s also still hitting fourth against righties and did stay in against a left on Wednesday. Let’s see how this plays out.
- Other than the high batting average, projection systems have no idea what to make of Jung Hoo Lee quite yet. Go ahead and hold him in five outfielder leagues and/or points leagues, but shallower roto formats might have needs apart from batting average.
- There’s a chance that fewer than 20 home runs is the new normal for Matt Chapman, and if I become convinced that true, he will no longer be in the rankings.
- Alex Verdugo has been on fire lately, but overall the upside is fairly limited unless he can keep hitting fourth or fifth. If that keeps up for another week or two, he’ll likely take another leap.
Tier 12
There is a net change of +14 to all players in this tier.
- Max Kepler looks healthy and is hitting well. Health has always been an issue, and he might get platooned at times against lefties when he’s not so hot, but there’s maybe 22 home run upside with decent counting stats and highly variable ratios. He’s more like a high-end streamer than a starter in 12-team leagues.
- Jackson Chourio is only striking out 14.7% of the time over his last 11 games, and while the ball still isn’t landing for hits as often as we’d like, it’s certainly a step in the right direction. I don’t think Chourio is overmatched in the big leagues, but he will need more time to start tapping into that tantalizing upside.
- Jurickson Profar is on fire and you might as well ride the wave. We’ve seen performance spikes like this in years past (2021 was the last one that was this good) and they didn’t really last long so I’m generally pessimistic on Profar long term, but there’s no harm in scooping him up to plug a hole in your first base or outfield slot.
- I’d drop MJ Melendez if I was in a league where he wasn’t catcher eligible.
- Andy Pages seems quite promising, but let’s see how this current strikeout issue gets resolved. Hopefully it’s just a bump in the road.
- I hope Lars Nootbaar finds his groove soon before he’s entirely lost this opportunity to be a staple in the middle of this batting order.
- You’re OK to drop Michael Busch in shallow leagues. He still has some upside with the power, but if you don’t need a corner infielder or other guys in this tier are generally available, just stream for now.
Tier 13
- Danny Jansen has hit the ground running and it’s probably because I traded him away in a two-catcher league so you’re welcome for the sacrifice.
- Amed Rosario and Josh Lowe might be in platoons as more of the Rays players get healthy.
- I don’t know what Zach Neto needs to do to hit higher in this order and it’s hurting his value. Hitting ninth for the Angels is not good for counting stats as evidenced by him having just six runs and seven RBI over his last 15 games despite a .352/.364/.611 line in that stretch. One key issue is that in seven of those 15 games, Neto had just three plate appearances.
- Thairo Estrada is back due to being hot and moving up in the order, including three straight games batting second.
- Davis Schneider went on a binge last year before the bottom totally fell out so I have a lot of reservations here, but at least the contact numbers look better.
- Will Benson and Brenton Doyle are droppable, but I get it if you want to hold on for the dynamic power and speed. They just strike out way too much.
- Brent Rooker is a power hitter who is more like a streamer than anything else, but he’s hot and there are a lot of injured outfielders.
- They plugged TJ Friedl right into the leadoff spot on activation, at least against righties, but I was skeptical on his upside coming into the season.
Taxi Squad
This year, the Taxi Squad will be a handful of players at each position who either are on the cusp of the list or who have been hot topics of late.
Another update: Hitters who appear to be out for an extended period of time will end up in the Taxi Squad until they are close to returning to the roster. Higher ranked players who are only out a few weeks will fall on the list but will generally move up as they get closer to a return.
Catcher
- Willson Contreras (C, STL) — What a bummer. Should be back within about 2 months.
- Patrick Bailey (C, SFG) — Concussion timelines are tough to gauge, but shouldn’t be out too long.
- Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) — We will check back in late summer.
- Sean Murphy (C, ATL) — Not worth stashing, in my minds.
- Luis Campusano (C, SDP) — 15 home runs and a good average are still useful at catcher.
- Elias Díaz (C, COL) — Always streamable at home.
- Shea Langeliers (C, OAK) — His recent explosion tells us nothing new. He remains a classic power-hitting catcher with no contact skills who is very streaky.
- Connor Wong (C/2B, BOS) — Makes a ton of contact and getting batted ball luck, but can fill in for you when the matchups are right. Starting to hit second sometimes?
First Base
- Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — He’ll be back on the list once we have some idea of a return date.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B, CIN) — We will check back in June. Wrist stuff can be tricky with some potentially lingering effects, which is the last thing CES needed.
- Jonathan Aranda (1B/DH, TBR) — He’s on a rehab now and should get at least some looks at various infield positions and DH when called up. Playing time is a big question mark, though.
- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) — Likely a strict platoon, at least for now.
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — It’s a strict platoon. Stream against righties and nothing else.
- Ty France (1B, SEA) — The situation is decent and the playing time is secure, but he’s just a streamer in most 10- and 12-team leagues.
- Connor Joe (1B/OF, PIT) — Hits lefties well and streamable when the schedule is right.
- Carlos Santana (1B, MIN) — He’s hot and can be useful in spurts as a fill-in.
- Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) — Never underestimate how difficult the transition to the majors will be, but the minor league numbers were stellar.
Second Base
- Matt McLain (2B, CIN) — Not back until the last month or two of the season.
- Brandon Lowe (2B, TBR) — Not sure how much he plays (or how well he plays), but he’s on a rehab.
- Zack Gelof (2B, OAK) — He’ll start a rehab this weekend. He should rank somewhere around 120 or so if he looks OK.
- Josh Rojas (2B/3B, SEA) — Gets hot from time to time, but there isn’t a ton of long-term upside.
- Nolan Gorman (2B, STL) — A streaky power hitter who is now at the bottom of the order.
- José Fermín (2B, STL) — Amazing plate discipline in triple-A so far, but don’t expect much (if any) power.
- Brandon Drury (1B/2B, LAA) — Not hitting right now but should become serviceable eventually.
- Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL) — Streamable when in Coors.
Third Base
- Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Will likely be a top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — Will likely be a top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Slightly sluggish in his first few games back, plus the rays infield is quite crowded.
- Tyler Freeman (2B/3B/OF) — Decent prospect with a good hit tool and some speed but very limited pop.
- Anthony Rendon (3B, LAA) — I’d probably keep an eye on him when he returns. If he keeps leading off, I’m interested.
- Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — There’s no room for him but the power and plate discipline (prior to 2024) is exciting.
- Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — Has 15 home run pop and decent ratios, which is streamable at times.
Shortstop
- Trea Turner (SS, PHI) — We will check back on his status in June.
- Masyn Winn (SS, STL) — Getting a bit lucky, but very interesting if he can get out of the bottom of the order and/or keep running.
- Blaze Alexander (SS, ARI) — Still hasn’t started against two righties in a row.
- J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) — Don’t stash him on your IL, but let’s see where he’s hitting when he’s back.
- Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL) — Long-term outlook hasn’t changed, but the O’s are in a tough spot.
- Carlos Correa (SS, MIN) — Back from the IL, but he’s just a points and ratios play.
Outfield/DH
- Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — He should be back this season and should definitely be stashed on ILs. Should be in the top 25-35 on his return.
- Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) — On a rehab. Should be around 80-100 or so when he’s back.
- Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CWS) — Should be in Tier 3 or Tier 4 when he’s ready to go.
- Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) — I’m curious to see if he gets a demotion instead of a rehab assignment. Wasn’t overmatched, but wasn’t performing.
- Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) — We will check back in June. Should be near the top 75 on his return.
- Nolan Jones (OF, COL) — I honestly don’t even know where to rank him on his return. He might stay on the Taxi Squad until I get a feel for where he’ll hit in the lineup.
- Lane Thomas (OF, WAS) — Without a timetable to return, but will be around 80-100 when he’s back.
- Jorge Soler (OF, SFG) — Hopefully the shoulder issue doesn’t sap his power.
- Byron Buxton (DH, MIN) — Not swinging a bat yet.
- Chas McCormick (OF, HOU) — He was on the bubble before the injury. I’m not stashing him on my IL unless I have unlimited IL spots.
- Austin Hays (OF, BAL) — Currently on a rehab assignment. His return muddies the waters in Baltimore even more.
- Tyler Nevin (OF, OAK) — Very little long-term appeal, but streamable.
- Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Strikes out a ton and very streaky, but fine to stream.
- Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) — This recent power outburst is likely a mirage, but he’s streamable in most points formats.
- Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK) — Since hitting those two home runs, he’s just been caught stealing in three of five attempts and has just one extra-base hit while slashing .176/.293/.206 with a 28.6% strikeout rate.
- James Wood (OF, WAS) — Top-10 prospect with plenty of pop but may not be up until mid-summer (or later).
- Blake Perkins (OF, MIL) — The pendulum has swung back hard. Very droppable in 12-team leagues.
- Richie Palacios (OF, TBR) — Sat twice in the last three games against righties. Aranda and Lowe are on rehab and their return will impact his playing time even more. Droppable in all mixed leagues.
- Joey Loperfido (OF, HOU) — He’s up and should hit some home runs, but the strikeout rate will determine how long he can stay up and how often he plays.
- Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — I’m not sure why they even called him up.
- Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — If you want a silver lining, he rebounded nicely after his last trip to the minors.
- JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) — Mildly intriguing as a streamer in OBP leagues.
- Jo Adell (OF, LAA) — The power is very real, but being 50% on steal attempts is a concern and there’s a fairly long record of Adell falling apart due to strikeouts. You can be excited, but also be very careful.
- Vidal Bruján (OF, MIA) — Has elite speed, no power, and a fresh opportunity.
- Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — Still hits the ball hard when he connects with it, but contact has been a big issue of late and the walks are basically gone.
- Jonny DeLuca (OF, TBR) — Plate discipline will remain good but has very limited power and speed.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)
Soler #71 and on the taxi squad?
Still getting used to removing injured players. JDM now makes it in at 150.
1434.7% of the time
Good lord!
Fixed
Great work as always Chu! Love the new taxi squad setup.
1 catcher 12 team roto (where managers love keeping multiple catchers🤦♂️). Garver or Melendez or Ruiz ROS?
Thanks.
I just want to vent: These guys are in my team:
Pete Alonso, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, Bryan Reynolds, George Springer…
I think this may be my worst start of a fantasy team in 4 years, 1-4 (h2h, 12t, one-win). I also picked Strider on first round because of a miss click (I NEVER pick pitchers in first round).
I need some of that magic regression on these guys.
Oh, and I also managed to stash Jackson Holliday during the draft. :clownface:
No Jonah Heim?