I know the bat speed stuff is cool, but it hasn’t really changed my rankings at all. I am far more interested in year-over-year bat speed, but if I run into some cool bat speed charts, I’ll share them.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
Tier 1
- Maybe I should just end the charade and put Shohei Ohtani at the top.
Tier 2
- Elly De La Cruz’s volatility will hold me back in terms of moving him into the top tier, but let’s be clear that his upside is a top-10 player.
- The plate discipline is good and Julio Rodríguez is doing good things, but not enough good things. We know that a hot J-Rod is capable of making up for more than a month of lost time, so you need to keep sticking it out. At least the ratios aren’t bad.
Tier 3
- I’ve done a lot of shuffling near the top in recent weeks, but right now I’m going to hold, for the most part. The players in this tier have boatloads of talent and excellent opportunities.
- CJ Abrams isn’t hitting the ball as badly as his May stat line would suggest, but the lack of walks has made it tougher to get opportunities to steal bases.
Tier 4
- Maybe I’ve been too hard on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Sure, the power isn’t what we hoped for (at least not if you hoped for 30 home runs), but the ratios can still be very good and this Blue Jays offense as a whole should be better than this.
- Alex Bregman’s recent surge is very much in line with what we expect Bregman to be doing, so I don’t think it’s just a flash in the pan.
- Josh Naylor deserves this promotion as he continues to get the ball in the air and unleash that power he’s always had in the bat. Not only that, but the walk rate is way above his career norms. 30 home runs, a .280/.350/.525 line and 100 RBI are definitely in play.
Tier 5
- William Contreras finally takes over as the top catcher in these ranks because he just won’t stop hitting. His home run ceiling is probably more like 23-25 than 30, but the ratios are fantastic and the counting stats are elite for a catcher (and really good for a non-catcher, too).
- Cody Bellinger has 10 hits in his seven games since coming back from the IL including two doubles and two home runs so I think it’s safe to assume he’s fully healthy for the time being. The elevated fly ball rate is interesting, and it might help me believe that he can return to 25 home runs.
- Oneil Cruz basically stopped striking out and you should be very excited. I mean, this guy hit a home run with a 47 degree launch angle. Barrels stop at about 25 degrees. That’s basically a pop-up except for the fact it traveled over 350 feet. When I say this guy has special talent, that’s what I’m talking about. Cruz missed this ball and it went yard. Like, he was upset about it. Imagine if he got the barrel on it. They’ll need nets in the outfield.
- I have currently recalibrated my expectations for Corbin Carroll at 15 home runs and 35 steals, but I am becoming more concerned that it could be as low as 10-12 home runs. The counting stats and ratios are down too. If it’s a health thing, it has the chance to get better. The popouts should correct too, whether or not he’s healthy. If it’s not and injury issue that’s causing the poor batted-ball quality, well, that’s a little scarier (in a way).
Tier 6
- Jeremy Peña is among the highest risers on the list because I’m paying more attention. It’s not just that he’s performing well, as he’s done that before, it’s how he’s doing it. I never expected him to have just a 14% strikeout rate this many plate appearances into the season, and he’s turned a ton of grounders from prior years into line drives. Now, I often mention that high line drive rates are generally unsustainable, but there’s nothing that fluky about a 24.8% line drive rate over this sample (I’m usually raising alarm bells around 27% or higher). A contact-oriented slap-hitting shortstop with Peña’s approach could absolutely keep a line drive rate at or near these levels, and a 16-18 home run season with a .285/.335/.435 line sounds like a decent projection. The counting stats should be pretty good too, assuming he keeps batting fifth (especially when Alvarez and Bregman start heating up).
- Bryan Reynolds is doing fine, but perhaps I’ve been overrating his upside. He’s at his best in points leagues where the doubles count for more than just some stray counting stat and batting average credit.
Tier 7
- I am struggling to stop myself from putting Isaac Paredes in the Top 50. I should just do it, right?
- Nico Hoerner is locked back into the top of the lineup and stole another base against someone besides the Mets. I’m pretty sure it was against Grandal, which barely counts, but a steal is a steal I guess.
- Gleyber Torres drops a few spots, but a few home runs this month plus decent plate discipline gives him a 98 wRC+ over his last 11 games. It’s not pretty, but it’s a sign of life.
Tier 8
There is a net change of +4 to all players in this tier.
- Tyler O’Neill’s inconsistency will be a source of frustration and joy all year long. Buckle up.
- Alec Bohm has cooled off, but it’s cool to know that he can even go on that type of heater.
- It’s weird to see a mostly healthy George Springer hitting this poorly and I’m not entirely sure what to make of it besides being bummed out. The poor results stem from a seemingly endless parade of grounders and while his track record suggests that should correct itself, it is not easy to watch.
- Yes, Paul Goldschmidt’s strikeout rate concerns me, especially because his zone contact rate (which was never that great to begin with) is now down to a paltry 75%. It is very difficult to succeed when you miss more than 20% of the pitches you swing at in the zone. It’s hard to say exactly what the problem is, but the decision-making is actually still pretty good. The contact ability has fallen down considerably, but whether that’s a bat speed problem or a timing problem or something else entirely is hard to pull from what data we have right now.
Tier 9
There is a net change of +7 to all players in this tier starting with #81
- Bryson Stott has an astounding 17 hits over his last 13 games with 30 combined runs and RBI, three home runs, and seven stolen bases with a .425/.5611/.800 line. I don’t think the power is here to stay, but a repeat of 2023 looks a lot more plausible than it did just two weeks ago.
- I believe in Spencer Torkelson’s talent, so I’m still on board. It was cool to see him have home runs on back-to-back days, but that’s not necessarily a sign of anything yet. It just means he punished some pitches that missed their spots.
- Jordan Westburg could very well get to something like 22 home runs and 12 steals with 150-160 combined runs and RBI. It’s not sexy, necessarily, but it’s a heckuva season for a guy who went basically undrafted in most 12-team leagues. It’s also good that the swinging strike rate has come way down over the last two weeks, which will help make a roughly 20% strikeout rate a little more projectable.
Tier 10
There is a net change of +6 to all players in this tier.
- Anthony Rizzo is showing fantastic plate discipline this month (five walks to five strikeouts over 46 plate appearances) and the ratios are wonderful as well. He’s not the 30-home-run guy he was in his prime, but why can’t he be a guy who hits 22-25 home runs with a .260 batting average and a .340 OBP?
- I don’t find it terribly likely that Brice Turang slugs .441 again in May like he did in April, but he should still hit for a decent average and steal tons of bases if he keeps up this impressive run of reduced strikeouts.
Tier 11
There is a net change of +7 to all players in this tier.
- Luis García Jr. has real bat skills and an excellent feel for contact. Don’t let all the red on his Statcast page fool you into thinking there are more home runs in this bat, though. He’s a slap hitter by trade and will probably cap out near 17-19 dingers.
- Edouard Julien is hitting the ball surprisingly well, but the fact he’s sat against most lefties lately drops him down a few spots.
- Josh Lowe gets a huge lift to make up for the big drop last week as his playing time seems much more plentiful than I originally feared.
- Evan Carter’s 35.1% strikeout rate so far this month is extremely out of character, but for now I’ll blame the balky back. Back injuries are troublesome, but let’s wait just a moment longer to see if he’s able to bounce back after his recent treatment.
Tier 12
There is a net change of +14 to all players in this tier.
- Spencer Steer has just one home run in his last 33 games, and while the plate discipline is rock solid and the speed is a nice surprise (nine steals in that stretch), a .198 average and a .293 slugging percentage are not going make many people happy.
- Jake Burger does not look in sync at all since he came off the IL and that’s a big disappointment considering he looked so strong out of the gate.
- Matt Chapman is one of the names on the top of those new bat speed leaderboards, but that’s not really new information as we already knew he could hit it hard.
- Brent Rooker is probably the same type of player we saw last season, but if he’s even a little better at making contact, then the floor is much higher than we saw from the summer to the end of the season in 2023.
Tier 13
There is a net change of +13 to all players in this tier.
- J.D. Martinez is hitting the ball hard and playing a little more, and that’s fun for everyone.
- Brenton Doyle got hot again, so let’s see how long it lasts this time. There’s plenty of talent here, even if it’s locked inside a player stuck with the Rockies.
Tier 14
- Jo Adell is the feature this month, and honestly, I wish I ranked him 20 points higher because he’s an easy player to get excited about. There is definitely 30 home run power here over a full season, along with 20 stolen bases, but the ratios and strikeout rates have held him back in a big way in both the majors and the minors. Some of the strong ratios are coming from a 25.3% line drive rate, and while slappier hitters can sustain that rate, I think Adell likely falls back to something closer to 20%. That won’t kill the ratios, but it’s hard to imagine him hitting much higher than the .250 or so he’s hitting now. If Adell can keep that strikeout rate below 30%, then he has a good shot to actually stay up with the big league club for good this time. You should continue to expect plenty of ups and downs with Adell based on the track record and approach (he still doesn’t take walks), but the upside is considerably higher than other players in this tier (or the tier above it, honestly). We could see Adell jump way up these ranks if he can keep the slumps from getting too low.
- Justin Turner’s eligibility in Yahoo leagues is awesome, but he’s been slumping in a big way of late and there’s only so much juice left in this orange.
- Cedric Mullins might already have more 30+ ranking changes than any other player this year, and it’s because so much of his value is tied to his role and playing time. Right now, neither looks promising.
- Y’all asked for Jonah Heim, so I’m giving you Jonah Heim. I don’t believe much in the power surge we saw in early 2023, but strong ratios and good counting stats should be par for the course.
Tier 15
- Shea Langeliers continues to hit a bit better than expected and is well worth a stream if you’re chasing power. A slump is inevitable and his aggressive approach means it will be very painful, but when that comes you can just cut him for a new streaming catcher.
- Tommy Pham has an opportunity thanks to the abysmal White Sox lineup, and he’s a decent fill-in for a little bit of pop and some counting stats.
- Michael Busch will likely fall off the list next week if nothing changes in his role or performance.
- Jacob Young’s hot streak appears over, but I’ll let it sit one more week to see if the stolen bases can make up for it.
- Jonathan India just hasn’t broken out like I hoped, despite there being a wide-open leadoff spot that the Reds seem dying to give him.
- Abraham Toro has a unique smattering of skills that makes him streamable in lots of formats, but the upside is pretty low over a full season.
- Connor Joe makes it onto the list by pure perseverance and attrition. He hits lefites and hits them well.
- Bat speed king Giancarlo Stanton hits the ball really hard, but we all knew that. We also know he’s prone to excessively long slumps and also injuries. He’s a power streamer at this stage of his career, but there’s nothing wrong with that.
- Iván Herrera has an opportunity again with Contreras out for quite a while, so stream away if you need a catcher and there isn’t a better one out there.
Taxi Squad
This year, the Taxi Squad will be a handful of players at each position who either are on the cusp of the list or who have been hot topics of late.
Another update: Hitters who appear to be out for an extended period of time will end up in the Taxi Squad until they are close to returning to the roster. Higher-ranked players who are only out a few weeks will fall on the list but will generally move up as they get closer to a return.
Catcher
- Willson Contreras (C, STL) — What a bummer. Should be back within about two months.
- Patrick Bailey (C, SFG) — Concussion timelines are tough to gauge, but shouldn’t be out too long.
- Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) — We will check back in late summer.
- Sean Murphy (C, ATL) — Not worth stashing, in my mind.
- Luis Campusano (C, SDP) — 15 home runs and a good average are still useful at catcher.
- Elias Díaz (C, COL) — Always streamable at home.
- Connor Wong (C/2B, BOS) — Makes a ton of contact and is getting batted ball luck, but can fill in for you when the matchups are right. Starting to hit second sometimes?
- MJ Melendez (C/OF, KCR) — Only interesting if he’s catcher-eligible, and even then, I’m streaming instead right now.
- Gary Sánchez (C, MIL) — Sure, why not?
First Base
- Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — He’ll be back on the list once we have some idea of a return date.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B, CIN) — We will check back in June. Wrist stuff can be tricky with some potentially lingering effects, which is the last thing CES needed.
- Jonathan Aranda (1B/DH, TBR) — He’s up, which is cool, but sat against a righty for his first game back, which is not cool. Should start getting looks at second and DH at some point.
- Mike Ford (1B, CIN) — I am stunned he stayed in the lineup against two lefties.
- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) — Likely a strict platoon, at least for now.
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — It’s a strict platoon. Stream against righties and nothing else.
- Ty France (1B, SEA) — The situation is decent and the playing time is secure, but he’s just a streamer in most 10- and 12-team leagues.
- Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) — Never underestimate how difficult the transition to the majors will be, but the minor league numbers were stellar.
- Jon Singleton (1B, HOU) — The plate discipline and power are great but the batting average is unlikely to ever be helpful.
Second Base
- Matt McLain (2B, CIN) — Not back until the last month or two of the season.
- Brandon Lowe (2B, TBR) — Seeing a specialist.
- Jorge Polanco (2B, SEA) — Was hot for a minute there, but the strikeouts killed it.
- Josh Rojas (2B/3B, SEA) — Gets hot from time to time, but there isn’t a ton of long-term upside.
- Nolan Gorman (2B, STL) — A streaky power hitter who is now at the bottom of the order.
- José Fermín (2B, STL) — Amazing plate discipline in Triple-A so far, but don’t expect much (if any) power.
- Brandon Drury (1B/2B, LAA) — Not hitting right now but should become serviceable eventually.
- Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL) — Streamable when in Coors.
- Nick Gonzales (2B, PIT) — Contact problems have plagued him in his career, but seemed to improve in Triple-A.
- Orlando Arcia (2B, ATL) — Valuable when he’s hitting, but the cold streaks are long and brutal.
Third Base
- Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Will likely be a Top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — Will likely be a Top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Raking in the minors and would help the major league club, but I worry a call-up won’t lead to immediate playing time, even if he can play second base (so can Aranda).
- Tyler Freeman (2B/3B/OF) — Decent prospect with a good hit tool and some speed but very limited pop.
- Anthony Rendon (3B, LAA) — I’d probably keep an eye on him when he returns. If he keeps leading off, I’m interested.
- Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — There’s no room for him but the power and plate discipline (prior to 2024) is exciting.
- Edmundo Sosa (3B/SS, PHI) — Had a nice run against a bunch of lefties but still likely in a platoon.
Shortstop
- Trea Turner (SS, PHI) — We will check back on his status in June.
- Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC) — Hopefully some time to get healthy will help end the awful slump he was in.
- Masyn Winn (SS, STL) — Getting a bit lucky, but very interesting if he can get out of the bottom of the order and/or keep running.
- Blaze Alexander (SS, ARI) — Plate discipline is good but slashing .152/.282/.182 in his last 13 games.
- J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) — Don’t stash him on your IL, but let’s see where he’s hitting when he’s back.
- Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL) — Long-term outlook hasn’t changed, but the O’s are in a tough spot.
- Carlos Correa (SS, MIN) — Back from the IL, but he’s just a points and ratios play.
Outfield/DH
- Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — He should be back this season and should definitely be stashed on ILs. Should be in the top 25-35 on his return.
- Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CWS) — Should be in Tier 3 or Tier 4 when he’s ready to go.
- Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) — I’m curious to see if he gets a demotion instead of a rehab assignment. Wasn’t overmatched, but wasn’t performing.
- Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) — We will check back in June. Should be near the Top 75 on his return.
- Nolan Jones (OF, COL) — I honestly don’t even know where to rank him on his return. He might stay on the Taxi Squad until I get a feel for where he’ll hit in the lineup.
- Lane Thomas (OF, WAS) — Without a timetable to return, but will be around 80-100 when he’s back.
- Jorge Soler (OF, SFG) — Hopefully the shoulder issue doesn’t sap his power.
- Byron Buxton (DH, MIN) — Not swinging a bat yet.
- Chas McCormick (OF, HOU) — He was on the bubble before the injury. I’m not stashing him on my IL unless I have unlimited IL spots.
- Rhys Hoskins (OF, MIL) — Should be back in a few weeks, likely ranked around 70-80.
- TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) — I’m not stashing him unless I have a very deep IL.
- Eddie Rosario (OF, WAS) — Extremely streaky and far from reliable. Streamer at best.
- Austin Hays (OF, BAL) — Sat on his first game back.
- Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Strikes out a ton and very streaky, but fine to stream.
- Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) — This recent power outburst is likely a mirage, but he’s streamable in most points formats.
- Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK) — Only here so you don’t ask about him.
- Jesse Winker (OF, WAS) — Banged up and not performing.
- James Wood (OF, WAS) — Top-10 prospect with plenty of pop but may not be up until mid-summer (or later).
- Richie Palacios (OF, TBR) — Sat twice in the last three games against righties. Aranda and Lowe are on rehab and their return will impact his playing time even more. Droppable in all mixed leagues.
- Joey Loperfido (OF, HOU) — He’s up and should hit some home runs, but the strikeout rate will determine how long he can stay up and how often he plays.
- Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — What was the point of all this?
- Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — If you want a silver lining, he rebounded nicely after his last trip to the minors.
- JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) — Mildly intriguing as a streamer in OBP leagues.
- Vidal Bruján (OF, MIA) — Has elite speed, no power, and a fresh opportunity.
- Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — Still hits the ball hard when he connects with it, but contact has been a big issue of late and the walks are basically gone.
- Jonny DeLuca (OF, TBR) — Plate discipline will remain good but has very limited power and speed.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)
