You don’t see it in the numbers on the right, but one big component of this update was capturing larger tiers. At this point in the season, your specific strengths and weaknesses should be fairly defined, and that should impact the way you value players in a big way.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
Tier 1
- There’s a new Tier 1, as I realized these were the only two players who I was considering for the top two for the last few weeks. No disrespect to the guys in Tier 2, but Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are the two top dogs in fantasy in my eyes.
Tier 2
- José Ramírez and Gunnar Henderson both get a slight boost within the tier because they’ve both just been so strong all season and contributing in all five categories.
- Freddie Freeman is hitting the ball well and his ratios are solid, but the counting stat totals are way down, and he has basically stopped running. I’m not ready to drop him down a tier quite yet as he has so much talent and such a strong track record, and we could see more power and counting stats at any time. The running might not be in the cards, though.
Tier 3
There is an average net change of +2 for all players in this tier.
- Elly De La Cruz is on pace to hit roughly 30 home runs with 80 stolen bases. That month of May was rough, but riding out the ups and downs will pay handsomely, and at least you know you’ll get plenty of steals even when he’s not hitting well.
- Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have struggled of late, but as you can see by the drop in the ranks, I am slightly more concerned about Olson if only because he has yet to turn it on much at all in 2024. That said, there’s no reason he can’t suddenly start mashing like teammate Austin Riley did over the last two weeks. There’s nothing in Olson’s profile that makes me nervous or that indicates significant skill regression.
- I’m not worried about Trea Turner not stealing bases yet.
Tier 4
There is an average net change of +3 for all players in this tier.
- It seems to be a lot of little things hurting Julio Rodríguez as opposed to a single glaring flaw. His average exit velocity is down a bit (particularly with respect to fly balls), he’s not pulling the ball well, he’s hitting slightly more grounders at the expense of fly balls, and he’s had some bad luck (though our PLV version that uses batted ball direction gives him an xwOBA of just .283 while Baseball Savant’s version credits him with an xwOBA of .326, while his actual wOBA is a paltry .277). I’m not trying to trade him away for pennies on the dollar, but unless he hits an extended hot streak (which he did in 2023 in a big way), it’s going to be tough to clear 20 home runs on the season. Thankfully, the steals are still there and he should put up a second straight 30 stolen base campaign.
- You have to feel for Royce Lewis. This guy just cannot catch a break. I’m expecting an IL stint, though for the purposes of this list I don’t move guys to that part of the article until it’s official.
Tier 5
There is an average net change of +3 for all players in this tier.
- I was really hoping for better counting stat totals from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and a bit more power, but neither seems like they’re going to happen in 2024. That said, he’s played plenty of games and looks like he’ll finish the season with about 20 home runs and almost 30 steals with a .250 batting average.
- Marcus Semien takes yet another tumble as the slump continues. Consistency was the calling card and he just doesn’t have it right now.
Tier 6
There is an average net change of +3 for all players in this tier.
- I want to raise Steven Kwan up even higher but I’m still deciding how many home runs he could hit in a peak year. He’s pulling fly balls far more often than he did in his first two seasons (29.3% in 2024, just 17.5% and 12.6% in the prior two seasons) and also hitting fly balls about two miles per hour harder, which explains why flies are leaving the park three times more often That said, it’s a fairly small sample of fly balls and batted ball direction has a lot of randomness in it year over year. The peak is probably about 15 home runs, but if the pulled flies stick around, it could be 20.
- Ozzie Albies is yet another player in Atlanta who is having no luck recreating the magic of last season. His barrel rate and hard-hit rates are a quite a bit lower than they were in 2023 but aren’t that far from the numbers from the rest of his career. The issue also isn’t bad luck as his actual stats and his expected stats are mostly in line. Albies never brought much raw power to the table, and the one somewhat noticeable difference from past years is that the average exit velocity on flies is down a few ticks. That’s not enough to explain the lack of production on it’s own, but honestly it’s all I can come up with right now.
- It’s good to see Adolis García start to turn it around after a prolonged slump.
Tier 7
There is an average net change of +5 for all players in this tier.
- Sliding into the leadoff spot is a good thing for Bo Bichette and his fantasy upside, but not if he’s going to keep hitting .120 with a strikeout rate north of 30% like he has lately. I almost gave him a big drop this week, but I’m going to wait one more just to see if this leadoff thing pays off like I hope it can.
Tier 8
This tier is chaos.
- Oneil Cruz is on pace to finish the year with about 25 home runs and 12-15 steals, which isn’t too bad considering the ups and downs. I’m still a big believer in the raw ability, thus the higher ranking than his 2024 performance might suggest is reasonable, and the first step to unlocking and refining that ability is just playing a full season. This power is very real and with some decision-making improvements, he can show it off even more.
- This ranking still might be too high for Corbin Carroll. The power just isn’t there and the streakiness is maddening.
- Jackson Merrill continues to absolutely explode with power. This is the same player who in 40 games from April 20 to June 6 hit just four extra base hits (two doubles, two home runs). To go from that to nine home runs in 16 games is insane, especially for a player who needed 511 plate appearances to hit 15 home runs in high-A and double-A last season. We’ve seen guys with a strong hit tool and average power have power awakenings in the majors due to that hit tool, but I’m still skeptical that Merrill can clear 20 home runs this season even with the extreme outburst.
Tier 9
This tier is chaos.
- Jarred Kelenic is 16 games into his stint as the regular leadoff guy in Atlanta, and he’s slashing .323/.366/.600 with five home runs, 20 combined runs and RBI, and two steals. This is fun. He can absolutely be a 25 home run guy who steals 15-20 bases based on his pedigree. That said, we’ve seen Kelenic be even hotter than this for 16 games, like in 2023 when he slashed .379/.431/.845 with seven home runs, 25 combined runs and RBI, and better plate discipline numbers. The rest of the season was, well, not as good. I’m not saying this is a flash in the pan, just that this isn’t a new skill he’s showing us.
- Wyatt Langford and Jackson Chourio keep mashing and proving why we were all excited at the start of the season. I slightly prefer Langford, for what it’s worth, as he’s hitting higher in the batting order right now.
- I have been waiting all year for the Reds to finally put Jonathan India in the leadoff spot, as his skill set is much better suited to it than the other guys they’ve trotted out there. His ceiling is a bit capped due to his average power and speed, but excellent ratios and plenty of runs should be in the cards for India. I could see India finishing the season with 15 home runs, 15 steals, 90 runs scored, and a .270 average with a .375 OBP if he stays at the top of the order. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing.
Tier 10
This tier is chaos.
- The longer Nolan Arenado goes without hitting for power, the more disinterested I get.
- Rhys Hoskins should be fine overall, but he’s a power-only guy who might not fit everyone’s needs.
- Andrew Vaughn has a 164 wRC+ since the start of June, though I do still wonder if he can sustain the power. He hit two home runs this week to get back on a pace that could help him reach 25 home runs, but his career high is 21 and he’s still slugging just .403 on the season even after the extended hot streak. Vaughn’s floor is pretty low based on what we’ve seen in prior seasons, and we need more of this home run pop to be convinced that the ceiling is worth chasing if he slumps again.
- Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos are rocking right now, along with the rest of the Mets’ lineup, because sometimes a whole team gets hot. Slumps will still happen but both are providing great production at premium positions for now.
- Nathaniel Lowe has been the hottest hitter in baseball for about a week and is worth scooping up in all the places he’s been dropped. I don’t think we’ll ever see the power he displayed in 2022 again, but there’s a chance he stabilizes a bit and performs like a top-15 first baseman from now until the end of the season.
Tier 11
This tier is chaos.
- Ha-Seong Kim should get pretty close to the 17 home runs he hit last year and should also get to roughly 30 steals, but the rest of the numbers continue to suffer terribly. He’s constantly been buried in the batting order after leading off last year, and is looking like he’ll fall short of 80 runs scored and 70 RBI, and the batting average is a lowly .226 right now (though that’s mostly a product of bad batted ball luck). If you’re in a position where steals aren’t that valuable to you, I’d be looking to move him by pointing out he’s a candidate to bounce back from the bad luck.
- I was perhaps overly bullish on Jeimer Candelario and have now corrected that to a more reasonable ranking. 25 home runs and 80 RBI are cool, but he’s never actually done that before and he doesn’t really bring much else to the table.
- Noelvi Marte is back in the rankings, and this is actually a fairly aggressive rank that is hopeful that he can jump in as a guy who could hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a full season. He didn’t look strong in the minors, though, and his MLB sample is quite small, so there’s considerable risk in jumping into that projection.
- Jeremy Peña has turned a corner with the plate discipline again, with twice as many walks as strikeouts since June 22 and is hitting .313/.405/.563 in that span.
- Cedric Mullins is always at risk of falling into a platoon if he slumps, but perhaps he can solidify a role (in Baltimore or elsewhere) that lets him hit regularly and be a stolen base contributor with good ratios and a bit of pop.
- Byron Buxton is currently healthy and not slumping so have fun with it while you can.
Tier 12
This tier is chaos.
- The shine is wearing off a bit on Nick Gonzales, but I imagine your waiver wire is pretty thin at second base, and it’s unlikely the available options offer Gonzales’s power upside.
- Maikel Garcia is a guy who can steal bases and who is extremely streaky with the ratios right now. I hoped to see him be consistent with the batting average as he has good bat-to-ball skills, but it hasn’t panned out and isn’t providing much value outside of the steals.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a ton of eligibility and puts the ball in play a lot. He’s best in points leagues, but he’s a solid stop-gap if you need a warm body that can provide batting average stability.
- James Wood has tremendous power and what appears to be an every day role. If you’re in a keeper league or are chasing power, you should move Wood up considerably.
- Jose Miranda appears to have secured and everyday role again and should be picked up anywhere that you need a corner infielder with some pop and ratios.
Tier 13
This tier is chaos. It is mostly an extension of the Taxi Squad.
- Justin Turner is finding himself again, and that eligibility at each base in Yahoo leagues makes him an attractive add if he’s available.
- C’mon, Baltimore, and give Heston Kjerstad a full-time role somehow.
- Michael Toglia is at home in Coors for the rest of the week, FYI.
- Dalton Varsho can hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases, but it comes at a cost of ratios and counting stats, and also deep slumps. That can be really tough in head-to-head leagues to manage.
- I’m intrigued by Stuart Fairchild. Our PLV metrics consider him an elite decision-maker who makes good choices both in and out of the zone who should have better walk and strikeout rates than we’ve seen so far. His ability to steal bases could be useful to you if you have a need there, and he appears to have secured regular playing time for now as a centerfielder.
Taxi Squad
This year, the Taxi Squad will be a handful of players at each position who either are on the cusp of the list or who have been hot topics of late.
Players are listed in no particular order.
Another update: Hitters who hit the IL will end up in the Taxi Squad until they return to the roster.
Catcher
- Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) — Possibly showing signs of life?
- Jonah Heim (C, TEX) — He’s been putrid at the plate recently and his history of being mediocre is a lot longer than his history of being good.
- Keibert Ruiz (C, WAS) — Points league streamer.
- Ben Rortvedt (C, TBR) — If you need a second catcher to stream, go for it.
- Bo Naylor (C, CLE) — Has plenty of pop and hitting a bit better of late.
- David Fry (C/1B, CLE) — Finding playing time, but the decision value and power metrics have taken a steep drop of late.
First Base
- Luke Raley (1B/OF, SEA) — Power and speed that comes with streakiness and contact issues.
- Carlos Santana (1B, MIN) — Hot again, I guess.
- Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET) — I still believe long-term but he’s not rosterable unless you are in a deep keeper or have an NA slot.
- Tyler Black (1B, MIL) — Likely in a platoon, but had some hype as a prospect and the first base job is very available.
Second Base
- Jorge Polanco (2B, SEA) — There’s upside here, but he’s looked so awful in a Mariners’ uniform.
- Brandon Drury (1B/2B, LAA) — Looked awful before hitting the IL, but could always go on a power surge and be relevant again.
- Edouard Julien (2B, MIN) — Nothing that happens in the minors is likely to change my opinion of what he can do. He’s an elite decision-maker with big contact issues against major leaguers.
- Connor Norby (2B, BAL) — Can’t stash him unless you have an open NA slot.
- Davis Schneider (2B/OF, TOR) — No longer a full-time player.
- Michael Massey (2B, KCR) — Let’s see if he recaptures any of that pre-injury magic.
- Enmanuel Valdez (2B, BOS) — Streamable middle infielder.
- Luis García Jr. (2B, WAS) — Slappy hitter who is stealing bases randomly, but he’s been cold for a while and doesn’t have enough upside to hold through an extended slump in shallow formats.
Third Base
- Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET)— Hitting third, but this offense is not very good.
- Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Struggling lately and I worry a call-up won’t lead to immediate playing time.
- Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — There’s no room for him but the power and plate discipline (before 2024) is exciting.
- Jake Burger (3B, MIA) — Just has not been the same since hitting the IL (and maybe a little before then).
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT) — Has speed and upside, but simply not getting it done.
Shortstop
- Edmundo Sosa (3B/SS, PHI) — I know they said he would play when Turner came back, but then he quickly sat twice in a row.
- Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL) — Long-term outlook hasn’t changed, but the O’s are in a tough spot
- Paul DeJong (SS, CHW) — Hot again, as he is from time to time.
- Ezequiel Duran (INF/OF, TEX) — Versatile and flashes talent from time to time but the role will dry up once Jung is back.
Outfield/DH
There are probably 5-10 more guys at any given time who you could argue belong on this part of the list.
- Hunter Goodman (OF, COL) — Keep an eye on the catcher eligibility. He has two starts (three appearances) so far and with Diaz out more may be coming.
- Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — If you want a silver lining, he rebounded nicely after his last trip to the minors.
- Will Benson (OF, CIN) — The strikeouts are tough to watch outside of OBP, and I think the Reds want someone more reliable leading off.
- Jack Suwinski (OF, PIT) — He’s still the same left-handed streaky power bat he’s always been, which means there will be times he should be rostered.
- Max Kepler (OF, MIN) — A fine replacement-level guy when you need some pop.
- Justyn-Henry Malloy (OF, DET) — Love the character and the on-base skills, but not sure he’ll get the playing time or do enough damage with the bat to be worth a scoop in standard leagues.
- JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) — He’s more valuable in OBP because of the walks but the rest of the package isn’t that exciting.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) — Stuck in a platoon, and there’s still some development to be done in the bigs.
- Austin Hays (OF, BAL) — Without a full time role he’s a daily streamer at best.
- Nelson Velázquez (OF, KCR) — Aggressive and has pop, and like most guys with this profile, prone to streaks.
- Jose Siri (OF, TBR) — Has speed and power to spare, but injury issues, strikeouts, and streakiness hold him back.
- Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) — Pure speed streamer.
- Jesus Sanchez (OF, MIA) — Hits the ball hard but doesn’t pull it much which kills his home run upside.
- Masataka Yoshida (OF, BOS) — Need to be certain he’s an everyday player before he’s back on the list. Sat a lot before getting hurt.
- Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) — Streaky hitter who is more of a streamer than locked-in fantasy regular.
- Jo Adell (OF, LAA) — If you’re looking to chase upside, this is a good place to start.
- Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — That power will make him interesting at various times but the unsteady role and streakiness will hold him back.
IL Stashes
- J.T. Realmuto (C, PHI) — Hopefully we see him before August.
- Henry Davis (C, PIT) — He should go back on the wire in single-catcher leagues.
- Bryce Harper (1B, PHI) — Shouldn’t be a long IL stint. Top-15 on return.
- Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — Almost ready to swing a bat. Will likely be a Top 50-75 player when he’s ready.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B, CIN) — Likely out for the year.
- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) — Droppable in 10-12 teamers.
- Mookie Betts (2B/SS/OF, LAD) — He’ll be back in the top tier on return.
- Matt McLain (2B, CIN) — Not back until the last month or two of the season. Droppable if your IL is full.
- Xander Bogaerts (2B/SS, SDP) — Tough stash if you’ve already got a loaded IL.
- Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Getting very close. Will be a top 50-75 player when he’s ready.
- Max Muncy (3B, LAD) — Will likely be a top 75-100 player when he’s ready.
- Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI) — He’s out until possibly August. Outside of top 100 on return but worth watching.
- Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU) — This thing keeps dragging on but finally getting good news. Top-five player on return.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SDP) — Top-20 on his return, probably sometime in mid-July.
- Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI) — Shouldn’t be a long IL stint. Top-40 on return.
- Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — He should be back this season and should be stashed on ILs. Should be in the top 25-35 on his return.
- Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) — Dealing with an oblique issue, and the roster is currently fairly crowded.
- TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) — Constantly battling injuries, should be back by mid-July. Top 80-100 on return.
- Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY) — Should be back by the end of July. Top 80-100 on return.
- Michael Harris II (OF, ATL) — No timetable for a return. Top-75 hitter when he comes back, assuming he can reclaim a spot near the top of the lineup.
- Starling Marte (OF, NYM) — I wouldn’t expect him back until early August. Top 100-120 on return as he may sit even more until fully healthy.
- Kerry Carpenter (OF, DET) — Hard to stash if your IL is already full. Borderline top 100 on return.
- Evan Carter (OF, TEX) — Makes you wonder if back issues have been an issue all season. Droppable if your IL is full. Outside of top 100 on return.
- Jordan Beck (OF, COL) — Droppable if your IL is full.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) — Obviously, he’s a drop in redraft leagues. Still top-5 in dynasty.
- Mike Tauchman (OF, CHC) — Droppable in most formats. Grade 2 sprains can take a minute.
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