Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + I stream the creation of this article LIVE at 1:00pm ET Monday afternoons.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The HIPSTER players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just two labels per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from John Villavicencio, though we will be conferring each week. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash right now in 12-teamers.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses, granted by our PLV powered Projections (in alphabetical order by tier):
Remember, these offensive rankings are based on each offense’s Process+ so far this year and how we project their lineups moving forward. It means you’re going to see a little different offensive rankings than you may see elsewhere and there will always be some surprises. This is based on skills, not purely results!
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend reading my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
New note: If you would like more detail about a specific pitcher, you can view all my thoughts of their previous starts on their player page. Just click their name, head to the game log, and tap on any row. You’ll see my thoughts on that start and extra pitch details.
As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top ~60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: None
- Removed: Michael King (8)
- Net Change Inside Top 60: (+1)
Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
Tier 1 – The True Aces
These pitchers are dope and make us feel dope.
1. Tarik Skubal – You just saw it. He is HIM.
2. Zack Wheeler – We were already happy when Wheeler had a 27%+ strikeout rate. Now he has a 33% strikeout rate. lol.
3. Paul Skenes – He’s a little too inefficient (and babied) to be the workhorse of others, but his floor is outstanding.
4. Jacob deGrom – Yep, he’s deGrom. Two months into the season without an injury concern at about 65 IP in the tank. You love to see it.
5. Garrett Crochet – His four-seamer is getting hit harder and doesn’t dominate as much as last season, including a nose-dive in performance to LHB (I’m blaming the half-a-foot drop in extension), but the cutter has stepped up, while embracing the sinker and sweeper has helped plenty. I’m still in the camp of selling in a lateral move for a top tier hitter to play it safe (lower extension is not a minor deal!) and I also recognize that he’s still a stud.
6. Max Fried – Despite the lower strikeout rate than those above at 24%, he’s second in the MLB in innings and Top 15 in total strikeouts. No, Fried won’t be this absurd for the full year, of course, and yet, it’s time to let him join the club in Tier 1.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – No notes, Yoshi is cool. Arguably in the top tier, his mix of questionable heater + the Dodgers’ need to preserve him for the playoffs has me slotting him down here. Stick him next Fried if you like, doesn’t matter to me.
8. Joe Ryan – Well that was a weird circumstance last week. I hate that he’s now a “Reliever” until his next start after continuing the Twins/Guardians’ suspended game.
9. Bryan Woo – His fastballs are dope and make us feel dope.
10. Logan Webb – Webb has found the perfect blend for his arsenal and is a solid play every night.
11. Nathan Eovaldi – Same goes for Eovaldi. I’ll say it again: That curveball has transformed his outlook.
12. Chris Sale – It’s interesting to see the changeup get shelved entirely. I imagine he’ll cruise with fastball/slider until something breaks.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.
13. Pablo López – I love that he’s experimenting with a kick-change and another week removed from his hamstring injury that was slightly affecting his mechanics. Here’s to the four-seamer finding the edges more often in the future.
14. Hunter Greene – Greene came back from the IL and pumped 100 mph fastballs. He’s probably fine, just get that slider strike rate above 70% again. K thx.
15. Hunter Brown – We saw the downside of Brown in his last start, though it was really just one frame. Imagine how good he’d be if he had a legit breaker for whiffs…
16. Carlos Rodón – Rodón continues to churn productive outings with his changeup acting as a true #3 pitch. You love to see it.
17. Jesús Luzardo – That sweeper has saved Luzardo’s career. It’s bonkers.
18. Spencer Strider – It feels incredibly weird to have Strider under Luzardo, but I’m not going to act like his four-seamers are nothing to worry about. The lower velocity doesn’t just affect the heater – it affects his slider’s ability to miss bats. Less velocity all-around = easier time reacting to the breaker when gearing up for the heater.
19. Robbie Ray – He was terrible early. He’s been a stud since. He is truly neither. Expect this phenomenal run to slow down a bit over time as he’s sure to have days where he can’t find the zone. That said, his feel for his secondaries at the moment is much more in line with his true talent than his massive adversity in early April to anything not going 90+ mph.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also have heightened nightmare potential on a given night.
20. Dylan Cease – He is exactly what he is. Enjoy the strikeouts and the moments of absurdity that should heavily outweigh those days of frustration.
21. Freddy Peralta – He’ll always have Professor Chaos stirring inside of him.
22. Framber Valdez – Alright Valdez, let’s eradicate all memories of April, alright?
23. Spencer Schwellenbach – Despite earning 20 whiffs, Schwellenbach did so mostly by way of his four-seamer…which doesn’t seem right. He’s supposed to be a secondary-first arm with a “please don’t hit me” four-seamer. I’ll likely be tepid on Spencer until the breakers come alive in a major way.
24. Kris Bubic – Bubic has done nothing to slow down his momentum. His ability to pop heaters into the zone without punishment is glorious and sets up a strong change and array of breakers.
25. MacKenzie Gore – Gore’s four-seamer has been fantastic and paired with his new slider, Gore has just two games under seven strikeouts all season. Incredible.
Tier 5 – Ole Reliable
These are premier Holly types, but they aren’t as exciting as the ones above. You should be fine with them, there’s just a little more risk.
26. Cristopher Sánchez – He’s not quite the same post-forearm scare, but the changeup is still absurd and he’s over 95 mph.
27. Corbin Burnes – Burnes has made it clear that the low vert cutter isn’t going to return. Uhhhh, that’s not good. That said, he kept the cutter down + the secondary whiffs have started to return. He should thrive against the Pirates.
28. George Kirby – The Still ILL is out of the way and now I’m excited to see who Kirby really is this season. I’m going to ignore the heavy lean into sinkers over four-seamers from his first outing.
29. Kodai Senga – Senga is what he is at this point – a three-pitch combo with the rare sweeper, sinker, or slider.
A QUICK NOTE ABOUT THE LIST
This week I had to fundamentally change how I approached the rankings. It’s the typical time of the season when the exciting arms from earlier in the season are either becoming real (Luzardo, Eovaldi, Bubic, etc.) or are looking like a HIPSTER (Meyer, REB, May, Roupp, etc.). In addition, prospect and injured arms aren’t ready as reinforcements to replace quality arms on the IL, which drains the depth of the landscape to make typical Toby types a bit more appealing than usual.
That means the ranks of pitchers from 30-50 are a bit more aggressive than I’d normally place them. As always, the conversation should never be “This guy is too high/low because of past results.” It should be “This guy should be closer to these guys because of this skill/attribute, etc.” This List is forward thinking as much as possible.
That’s all. I’m legit surprised by many ranks this week, too. I always am.
Thanks for reading this, here’s 20% of PL Pro Yearly as a token of my thanks: IREADTHENOTES.
Tier 6 – I Guess We’re Doing This
Some of the more controversial rankings are found here and it comes down to skills vs. results. I completely understand if you feel differently. In most cases, I’m weighing what I think their arsenal and ability dictate rather than what their results have been thus far.
30. Jack Flaherty – His curve and slider are still great and while I’m not as jazzed as I was a few weeks ago, he’s still a clear step up above those in Tier 7.
31. Sonny Gray – He is who he is. There will be Sonny days, there will be Gray days. He adapts as well as anyone with his wide arsenal.
32. Drew Rasmussen – The fastballs are excellent and I’m shocked to see the cutter floundering more than usual. The fact he didn’t need to throw more than three breaking balls last time out is a good sign.
33. Ryan Pepiot – Pepiot looked like a different pitcher last time out, favoring a slider that acted more like a cutter. It added a confident strike pitch to the mix and I can see it amplifying the effectiveness of the four-seamer as a putaway offering. I dig this.
34. Clay Holmes – The Mets broadcast shared a very important stat today. Hitters have gone 9-for-101 against The Adobe in two-strike counts. Yes, that’s absurd.
35. Kevin Gausman – NICK?! WHAT ON EARTH IS THIS?! I know, this is absolutely BONKERS. But here’s the thing: Since last week, Gausman has had two great starts (including today!) with one commonality: Splitter whiffs. He’s returned double-digit whiffs in each outing with over four inches added depth. It’s not a mystery, either. Gausman mentioned that he tweaked his splitter grip and fixed its problems. I had Gausman way down The List as he struggled across all of 2024 with the splitter with no sign of that changing. In fact, Gausman had just three games across forty-one starts with at least 11 splitter whiffs since I last did The List. Since then? Twice. That’s absurdly convincing to me.
36. David Peterson – I hate his WHIP and it makes it so hard to rank him. I also love his 7.2 feet of extension, multiple whiff secondaries, and a pair of fastballs that confound inside the zone, while carrying a long leash for a winning team.
37. Will Warren – However, if you’d rather shoot for the moon, consider Warren over Peterson. It’s hard not to fall for his absurd whiffability across his sweeper and changeup + the four-seamer weakness of old disappeared weeks ago. But just four innings in Coors! Seven strikeouts and seventeen whiffs in 57 pitches before a rain delay ended it. You have to roster this man if you can.
Tier 7 – You’re Helping. I Think. Yeah.
These are arms who are either trending in the right direction or aren’t fading enough for me to be heavily concerned about dropping them far down the list in the upcoming weeks.
38. Nick Pivetta – I’m worried about Pivetta’s clear regression coming once the weather heats up (super low HR and hit rates despite little arsenal growth. At least it’s fewer sweepers to RHB!), but hot dang has he had a great start to the year.
39. Bailey Ober – The slider/cutter approach to RHB isn’t working out and his heater is down to 90/91, not the 92+ mph from last year. He’ll do well against LHB-lineups, but I wish I could latch onto the #3 pitch more. It has taken a step back from last season.
40. Lucas Giolito – Despite giving trusting managers a glorious outing against the Orioles, I was slightly uneasy, failing to become enthralled by his slider and his floated changeup. Still, the heater is a great foundation and I expect the changeup to be there constantly as he fine-tunes the new #3 pitch. He should be a reliable arm throughout the year, even if there is a bump or two early.
41. Nick Lodolo – The line wasn’t what we wanted against the Cubs, but he executed consistently. I dig the mix.
42. Ranger Suárez – Suárez is showcasing the feel we saw from him this time last year and here’s to him keeping that rhythm for a good while.
43. Griffin Canning – The dude has taken down some of the toughest offenses around, rooted in his improved slider and changeup that have added drop this season. Watching Canning deftly avoid the heart of the plate is a joy, though we can’t expect it to stick all year.
44. Matthew Boyd – I wish he could find the feel of his old slider, but even with changeups and heaters, he’s a strong arm for a winning ball club who can churn QS.
Tier 8 – At The Edge Of The Cliff
Now that we’re past the “Hey, this is legit value I’m unlikely to drop this season”, it’s time to shift to pure upside. It’s why these rankings are more aggressive than projections or likely other rankings you’ve seen elsewhere. It’s a 12-teamer and you should be embracing the burn-and-churn of your starting pitchers.
45. Ryan Weathers – Two starts against the Cubs? No problem for Weathers and his 97 mph four-seamer. I’m not charmed by his changeup and breakers just yet, but that heater raises his ceiling plenty. I’m also shocked in the best way to see his pitch count climb well above 80.
46. Jackson Jobe – Jobe has tinkered with his approach and has better command than your standard rookie with a large variety of weapons. Hold long enough and you’ll reap the rewards – it’s not like he’s putting you through the ringer on the journey.
47. Gavin Williams – Williams is throwing cutters as his number two pitch and despite a stressful matchup on my bench tonight against the Dodgers, I’m confident he’ll benefit managers thereafter…as long as strikes follow. They should, but I recognize it’s not a guarantee.
48. Matthew Liberatore – He’s been a solid Holly who doesn’t quite have the refined mix to suggest he can hold it for the entire season. We may see development across the arsenal to keep his performance afloat, but I’m favoring others with clearer potential for now.
49. Brandon Pfaadt – Where’s the curveball to LHB Pfaadt?! WHAT DID YOU DO TO IT?! The changeup is still a great addition to LHB and makes him worthwhile, but hot dang I want that curve back in the mix.
50. Michael Wacha – He’s Wacha, the man with a great changeup and generally good enough command of his full arsenal to set it up for six innings.
51. Merrill Kelly – Kelly has the Arizona defense behind him + great run support. Don’t overlook him, despite the lack of brilliance.
52. Landen Roupp – On the other side of the coin is Roupp, who wows us with big curveballs and ridiculous sinkers, while failing to surgically take down batters efficiently. There are signs of growth, particularly in his changeup, though the full package may take some time.
Tier 9 – They Will Drive You Up The Wall
I’m willing to bet this tier will upset people the most. I see them as HIPSTER arms who could potentially smooth out into stable arms or make you wish in August that you never drafted them. Who knows when they’ll perform at their potential?
53. Tanner Bibee – The line was great, the pitches under the hood are still suspect. I need to see more whiffs and a little less chaos from the secondaries.
54. Shane Baz – This seems ridiculous, I’M AWARE. Here’s the situation: Baz had poor results but the pitches themselves looked great. Something was off and watching his most recent start against the Jays, I’m getting the sense Baz figured out the problem. Let it be sequencing, tipping, body language, confidence, etc., Baz was far less hittable with the same pitches in his last outing. That’s a great thing and the upside is a legit Top 30 SP. He’s not nearly as far off as the results would tell you.
55. Zac Gallen – It’s a tough year for Gallen. Every start comes with its own oddities and it’s getting harder and harder to hold on tight. I want to say Gallen has the experience to make adjustments and figure himself out over time to be a productive starter, but like Baz, that’s more of a hunch than anything.
56. Luis Castillo – Castillo’s arsenal simply isn’t what it used to be. He’s kept his head above water thus far and I’m afraid he’s losing steam. The slider and changeup are not missing bats, the fastballs (even at a little more velocity) are not the foundational awesomesauce of old, and Castillo could be the guy you look back on asking yourself why you held on for so long in the first place.
57. Andrew Abbott – Do I buy Abbott for the full year? Sadly, I don’t. Hitting 93+ mph is a great thing after sitting sub 92 mph, but I wouldn’t call it a good fastball, while the changeup is off-and-on + the curveball doesn’t dominate. He’s a strange arm that I can’t quite figure out, which has me saying “Okay, go with it, but like 2023 when he came up, this success doesn’t seem like a plateau.”
58. Tyler Mahle – Mahle’s new love for the cutter is helping he get through outings, but like Abbott, he doesn’t look destined for a full campaign of 12-teamer production. Vargas Rule it all you want and sell high if you can. His 92 mph heater isn’t what it used to be, while none of the secondaries are all that impressive.
59. Grant Holmes – The REB still doesn’t have a fantastic secondary to pair with his slider and it has me awfully concerned for his next two outings against tough teams. That said, he just succeeded against the Padres + it’s not a huge leap to expect his curveball feel to return. After all, it was the pitch that made him a major leaguer.
60. Clarke Schmidt – I’m not the biggest fan of Schmidt’s ability to work an at-bat, but the stuff is good and the Yankees are hoping he goes six frames per night. This should work across the year.
61. Zach Eflin – Yes, he got bamboozled by the Nationals. No, Eflin isn’t cooked. He’s a solid Toby if not a Holly in a few weeks, especially if the Orioles bats give him the run support he deserves.
62. Jameson Taillon – Taillon’s sweeper is killing it against RHB and it’s fun to watch. It’s a great situation and I see no reason to move on from it.
Tier 10 – Riding The Magic Bus
Here are your Frizzle arms who could be something more than what they are right now. Some of these will rise, others will disappear. Take chances, make mistakes, get messy.
63. Zebby Matthews – But he won’t go five frames! If he didn’t allow a ridiculous 28% foul rate (18% is normal) across 81 pitches, he sure would have last time out. Don’t forget, Zebby collected nine strikeouts in that outing and can do it again.
64. Kyle Harrison – I’m thrilled the Giants gave Harrison the reigns to start. He completely changed his arm-angle this year, pushing his four-seamer to 96 mph with an absurd 1.8 HAVAA – that’s 99th percentile. With full intent to elevate and a pair of secondaries that seem far more refined than last year, I’m suddenly a giant fan of Harrison. My only worry is that the Giants will pull the plug too soon.
65. Edward Cabrera – You’ve got to be kidding, Nick. Uhhh, you don’t realize he’s a different pitcher, do you? Cabrera just went 11/11 strikes with his slider paired with a legit curveball. He’s embraced sinkers as much as four-seamers (sometimes even more!) and nearly went six shutout with ten strikeouts and zero walks before he walked his two final batters (one squeezed, one full count). I’m not saying he’s going to breakout, but it sure looks like the best version of Cabrera I’ve ever seen for more than one start now. You’re doing yourself a disservice by not taking a spec add, at the very least.
66. Hayden Birdsong – And yes, I prefer ECab to Birdsong. I’ve spent a lot of time watching Hayden and when I tell you I get bored watching a starter, it’s because either 1) They throw strikes that do little to excite or 2) They have no idea where the pitch is going. It’s a pain watching plinko-style at-bats from Birdsong and it’s not a shock he was pulled before finishing the fifth frame in Monday’s game. He’ll have his moments, absolutely, but this isn’t a potential Top 30 SP for 2025, in my view. There’s too much left to figure out.
67. Noah Cameron – If I expected Cameron to have a long runway in the rotation, I’d have him higher up. Sadly, he’ll likely get bounced once Ragans or Lugo return and I hope he can replicate what he just displayed in the short time we have. Instead of the 90 mph we saw in his debut, we got a heavy serving of 92 mph, which isn’t stellar or special, but as his worst offering, it does raise his floor. Fortunately, the changeup, curve, and slider/cutter are great offerings he executes well, making a potential QS darling with some strikeout upside. That’s a cool thing in that park.
68. Ryne Nelson – I absolutely adore his four-seamer…when he locates it upstairs. Even still, if Nelson could just land that cutter for strikes in the bottom third of the zone at will, he’d be phenomenal. That’s literally all he has to do and yet I’m not sure it’s in there. At the very least, he gets the Pirates this week – grab him for it, hope he succeeds, and there’s a small chance he can weasel his way into the rotation even when the infirmary empties.
69. Cade Horton – I dig the cut-fastball + breakers and the schedule is in his favor. It’s not the ultra whiffability we normally go for from prospects, but it’s a good situation for an arm who can find outs.
70. Shane Smith – Why does he have to pitch for the White Sox? The velocity is staying up for longer in starts, now the question is if he can locate with slider and changeup effectively for six frames.
71. Tylor Megill – The slider command has waned massively across the last month and I’m worried he can’t get away with his four-seamer on the edges as he just did in Fenway. But ten strikeouts! I know, it was wild, I watched it live with Dellin Betances and Kid Mero. And not sustainable with that approach.
72. Dustin May – May finally threw some four-seamers and cutters and it paid off for him. It wasn’t the largest dosage with clear room to grow, and I won’t bank on that until we see a little more from him first.
Tier 11 – Fine, You Need Innings
I expect them to be rostered in your 12-teamers in the short term, but don’t feel like you have to hold them.
73. Casey Mize – Is this too low? Well, he came back from the IL to sit 93 mph and I just want him to display his 95/96 mph heater with a legit splitter and a decent #3 pitch before I’m gung-ho starting him regularly.
74. Tomoyuki Sugano – Sugano’s splitter command has been impeccable lately. He’s looking like a proper Toby, fully settled into the season.
75. Walker Buehler – I can see how Buehler puts all of the pieces of his arsenal together to form a legit Holly, but he has yet to do so. It makes every start feel like a puzzle he needs to solve to get through five, with the dream of six.
76. Michael Soroka – Soroka’s curveballs is pretty. His four-seamer and sinker can be great complements, while the changeup has some work to do.
77. Nick Martinez – I like his wide arsenal, especially the changeup, though he gets burned far too often on his mistake pitches. Play the matchups.
Tier 12 – I Need A Purpose
These arms could return a fantastic start and you’re desperate to chase something more than a boring streamer. You want to risk it all to get the next big thing.
78. Sandy Alcantara – Do what you want. Consider him a stash play as if you removed the name, you’d see 98 mph heaters with curveballs, sliders, and changeups, and wonder why he wasn’t dominating. I have him down here with no expectation to have him in my 12-teamers (remember, I have many players aggressively ranked here that allow the average player to choose from an abundant number of SP in their leagues before getting to 78), but we should recognize that there’s a solid chance Alcantara figures it out at some point and BLAMO! Up The List he goes.
79. Jake Irvin – Irvin is all about rhythm and he’s in a good one right now. The schedule isn’t in his favor, sadly.
80. Max Meyer – Meyer had an improved start last time out, though it’s the Padres now and not enough for me to believe he’s turned the corner.
81. Jack Leiter – We know the ceiling of Jack Zippo and it’s sure to arrive eventually. His four-seamer hasn’t performed as the foundational pitch it should be, nor is the slider dominating enough to mask it. Monitor those pitches and hope the development comes soon.
Tier 13 – WannabeTobys
I like their matchups and they could be productive for a week before we let them go back to the wire.
82. José Soriano – He throws hard with a good CSW curve, but he has too many outings where he doesn’t know where it’s going.
83. Chris Paddack – Paddack’s first start of the year made way for a fantastic run after and the next two matchups seem to be in his favor…except that Paddack still doesn’t have a good answer for RHB.
84. Brady Singer – The Slinger hasn’t had a whiffable slider for a long time and it’s starting to make me worried.
85. José Berríos – He’s The Great Undulator. You know what you’re getting yourself into.
86. Tony Gonsolin – Gonsolin doesn’t have an exceptional arsenal and I’m not sure he’s worth holding onto past a clear bench against the Yankees.
Tier 14 – Double-Bubbles
I like their matchups and they could be productive for a week before we let them go back to the wire.
87. Colin Rea – He’ll get to stroll down the Reds Carpet this week with the Nationals after. He’s pitched a bit over his head but he’s still worth the gamble.
88. Davis Martin – Martin’s cutter has performed far better than the slider we saw prior. I don’t love the situation, but I get taking the shot.
89. Jeffrey Springs – It’s not always sunshine and rainbows and the Jays may make it tough. His changeup sure was sparkling, though.
90. Jacob Lopez – He sits in the low 90s and lives away at seven feet of extension playing his four-seamer off a cutter, while landing backfoot with the slider. It’s kinda interesting and I’m curious where this goes.
91. Lance McCullers Jr. – McCullers returned the strikeouts we’re used to seeing from him and could get them regularly in the future. The efficiency is the big question mark.
92. Chad Patrick – Patrick’s cutter and four-seamer are working in tandem upstairs in a Canibal McSanchez way, but he’s carrying a low chance for six frames.
93. Ben Brown – He just go trounced in Cincinnati, at least he’ll get another shot along the Reds Carpet this week.
94. Taj Bradley – Did you realize Bradley held a 20% strikeout rate this season?
95. Gunnar Hoglund – I was shocked to see 50% more sinkers than four-seamers in his last outing for a guy rooted in a high vert four-seamer + change approach. It doesn’t make me too confident moving forward.
96. Luis L. Ortiz – Sure, he gets whiffs, but at what cost? AT WHAT COST?! It’s fun trying to guess which pitch will thrive (if any) on a given night between the four-seamer, sinker, slider, cutter, or changeup.
97. AJ Smith-Shawver – The Nationals served the lava floor I was could feel on the back of my neck. His splitter isn’t a good offering and the four-seamer doesn’t come with the accuracy it needs. And…? Oh, it’s a curve that is not a good #3 pitch. It would act surprised if you told the hook that it held that label. I am?!
98. Dean Kremer – Kremer has moments with BSB action against LHB via four-seamers and splitters, but he’s Dean Werewolf for a reason.
99. Cade Povich – Povich’s curve has been a stabilizer and a date against the Cardinals could be another step forward.
100. Brayan Bello – He doesn’t attack the zone with his pitches. The tools are there with his sinker, slider, and change, and I hope one night all three could party together.
Honorable Mentions
Here is every pitcher who is not on The List and currently has a rotation spot. If I’m missing someone, it’s likely because I removed them from The List last week and forgot to add them here, or I meant to add them to The List and I got crossed up somewhere. Let me know if I’m missing someone, please!
J.T. Ginn (ATH) – He could return this week and he’s not worthwhile to stash before the outing. Pretty interesting with increased velo at first and more sink. Keep an eye on him for deeper leagues, but definitely not in 12-teamers.
JP Sears (ATH) – Sears is a week-to-week arm if there’s a great matchup and nothing better.
Luis Severino (ATH) – Is the juice worth the squeeze? I dig the cutter getting used more, but the overall performance just isn’t worth holding over a streamer.
Osvaldo Bido (ATH) – Demoted to the minors.
Bryce Elder (ATL) – Demoted to the minors.
Charlie Morton (BAL) – Morton is back in the rotation and you have to wonder, should he?
Trevor Rogers (BAL) – He was optioned back to Triple-A after his spot start and I’d hold off stashing him. Spec add if you like when he does get the opportunity, though the velocity is just 93 mph.
Hunter Dobbins (BOS) – The third Hunter doesn’t have enough electricity to risk the Shag Rug.
Tanner Houck (BOS) – Placed on the IL and not on my injured table because, well, you know. He honestly may just need to turn it off and back on again.
Bryse Wilson (CWS) – You’re always here. Somewhere else, but always here.
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – This has moments of being cool and then failing to locate the very next inning.
Sean Burke (CWS) – His fastball velocity is still down and he’s working on putting it all together again.
Logan Allen (CLE) – You’re seeing some decent results from Allen but the arsenal doesn’t speak to viability.
Chase Petty (CIN) – Sent back to Triple-A after walking six batters in his second MLB outing. He’ll get over the jitters at some point (dominated in his Triple-A game over the week with three walks) and you shouldn’t call it a fluke when he does.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) – He had an impressive return to the rotation and now would get a rough schedule if he’s sticking. Let’s not go for this.
Antonio Senzatela (COL) – Senz-A does what Senz-A does.
Carson Palmquist (COL) – Another Rockies arm who we don’t care for in fantasy because he’s on the Rockies.
Chase Dollander (COL) – No, I didn’t want to add Dollander to the IL table. It’s Coors + the Shag Rug and he’s not as filthy as you think. The velocity is there for a rare peak moment, but the fastball isn’t as electric as other young arms and the secondaries are still in development. Maybe he’s worth a play on the road, but even that’s risky.
Germán Márquez (COL) – COL
Kyle Freeland (COL) – Story
Tanner Gordon (COL) – Brooooo. Oh hey, another Colorado pitcher, this time with two first names. DOUBLE WHAMMY.
Keider Montero (DET) – Montero’s fastball has shown some extra life in a few games this year. The slider can miss bats, too, but the overall package is too meh and comes without security in the rotation once Mize is ready to return.
Colton Gordon (HOU) – The Astros may call up Gordon for a spot start this week to help rest their arms for a long stretch of games. He’s a low-90s southpaw with a meh fastball + big sweeper and 83/84 mph change he can throw for strikes. If the control is there, it’s possible he performs against the Royals. We don’t start MLB debuts, though.
Ryan Gusto (HOU) – He’ll get the Rays in what looks to be his last start in the rotation and we can’t trust that he’ll have his best fastball and enough in his secondaries to make it worthwhile.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) – Oh right, Lorenzen. You’re making a Grave Mistake without the ratios you want on most nights.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) – The Jack of One Trade is now the Jack of NO Trade with the sinker feel disappearing. No thanks.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – He’s not the worst AL-Only streamer. At least he’s able to go six.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – If Anderson were getting a decent matchup, he’d be on The List. Sadly, it’s the Dodgers and you don’t have to hold him through it.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) – Kikuchi had a good outing and I still have zero confidence in him. There are better plays to make.
Ben Casparius (LAD) – Annnnd he’s back to the pen. I hate it. LET THE MAN START.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – We got a TATIAGA sighting this weekend and it was the classic feeling of “Don’t meet your heroes.” Here’s to hoping that changes in time.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) – He’s not on the IL table for the same reason he wasn’t on The List before he hit the IL. Sasaki doesn’t have a third pitch, his splitter doesn’t get enough strikes, and his heater is under 95 mph. He isn’t a hold for 12-teamers.
Landon Knack (LAD) – He could get us a cheap Win and the kick-change is kinda cool, but the schedule is rough and even if he faced a weak team, he could get pulled before the end of the fifth.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) – He’s getting the second game of the year for the Marlins. Yup. It’s possible the splitter is cooking…?
Eury Pérez (MIA) – Y’all should consider stashing in your IL spots soon if you still can.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Aaron Civale (MIL) – The breakers are not as good as they’ve been in the past. I’ll wait until then.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) – We initially thought Woodruff was returning last weekend, until he rolled his ankle and now we don’t know when he’ll return. Fun.
DL Hall (MIL) – He’s back and maybe starting this week…? Eh, there are too many options for the Brewers.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) – I’m 100% down to stash Les Mis. I’m impressed by Misiorowski’s ability to get his four-seamer in the zone across his last few Triple-A games and when promoted, he’s in the first Frizzle tier on The List. Here’s to hoping the walk rates aren’t stupid high.
Jose Quintana (MIL) – I guess he’s returning this week to face Philly. That’s a clear pass.
Logan Henderson (MIL) – He’s back in Triple-A. Womp womp. Not a bad play when he gets the chance again with his four-seamer + changeup combo.
Quinn Priester (MIL) – Priester is getting his shot and I’m not seeing enough to hold onto him for the moment.
Tobias Myers (MIL) – Optioned to the minors. Bummer.
David Festa (MIN) – He’s back in the minors with the return of PabLó. The command is still an issue and I don’t think he’s worth a stash.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – He’s off the minors with Zebby taking his place. My loud CAPS in these notes actually worked, YOU’RE WELCOME.
Blade Tidwell (NYM) – The Mets had a doubleheader and gave Tidwell the call as the extra man for the day. Tidwell’s four-seamer comes with legit vert and mid-to-upper 90s velocity, though the secondaries weren’t at their best on the adrenaline-fueled day. I’d spec add him in the future if he looks to be entering a secure place in the rotation.
Ryan Yarbrough (NYY) – I won’t count out a possible Win against Texas if everything goes right. That’s the best I’ve got.
Andrew Painter (PHI) – He won’t be up for a few weeks with some Triple-A games under his belt, likely around the start of June. He’ll be in the 60s at that time.
Mick Abel (PHI) – Boy was that MLB debut impressive. 97 mph fastballs with a legit power slider at 89/90 mph and breaker in the mid-80s. Watching Abel actually execute a game plan (put the heater inside, keep the slider away, elevate the fastball, etc.) was a joy and to see that ability merged with velocity and a long 80+ pitch leash on a winning team is quite rare. Add him everywhere whenever he returns to stick, even if the fastball settles down to 95/96 mph and the walks creep in a touch.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – He has a rotation spot with Nola on the IL. It’s absurd how often he gets to start.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) – He gets into a groove at times, but it’s Arizona + Padres this week.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – He had fun on the Reds Carpet and now waits until he gets traded to a legit team.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) – Is now the time to start stashing Bubba? I’d say so. It feels about two weeks away and given everything we’ve seen and read, he’ll be a Top 60ish starter with potential for much more.
Mike Burrows (PIT) – THIS ISN’T BUBBA. I don’t think he does enough to risk the Shag Rug. I’ll let you know if he does something dope.
Bryce Miller (SEA) – Apparently there’s a chance Miller (and Logan Gilbert, for that matter) returns this week and I don’t buy it. It seems like there’s a problem in his elbow that they aren’t fixing and just having him pitch through, which gives me zero confidence, and if he starts, it’s a Still ILL. Slot him around Tier 7/8.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – I’m glad he’s had a moment of decency on the bump. Definitely not a believer, sadly.
Logan Evans (SEA) – He’s taking Gilbert’s spot in the rotation and there isn’t enough for us to chase at the moment. Maybe the command is better post-debut, though the stuff doesn’t seem overwhelming. Surely there are better options.
Jordan Hicks (SFG) – Hicks has been sent to the bullpen and it’s the right move.
Andre Pallante (STL) – The stuff is…eh. I’d rather not, even if he’s throwing 95 mph.
Erick Fedde (STL) – We can’t rely on him for the moment. Maybe he’ll return later.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – His four-seamer was one of the worst pitches in baseball last year and is now two ticks slower.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) – I don’t dig his overall approach. There’s nothing that speaks to production in 12-teamers.
Stephen Kolek (SDP) – He’s stepping in for a moment and he’s not a 12-teamer streamer you want to chase.
Zack Littell (TBR) – Is he going to be long for the rotation? Does it matter?
Patrick Corbin (TEX) – Corbin hath returned and no, he’s not a new man you can trust.
Bowden Francis (TOR) – Francis’ four-seamer can get him through games, but I don’t like the rest of the arsenal enough.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) – The curve isn’t there and he’s a step below a Toby at the moment.
Eric Lauer (TOR) – You didn’t just ctrl-F Lauer, did you?!
Spencer Turnbull (TOR) – He signed with the Jays and he could get a shot at some point. That’s not to say he’ll be just as good as he was during that lovely early run with the Phillies, but let’s keep an eye on it. Not an auto-add to The List when he gets a chance in the rotation.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) – I kinda dig his potential, but y’all see the downside clear as day.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik SkubalT1 | DET | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 3 | Paul Skenes | PIT | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 5 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 6 | Max Fried | NYY | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | -1 |
| 7 | Yoshinobu YamamotoT2 | LAD | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | -1 |
| 8 | Joe Ryan | MIN | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 9 | Bryan Woo | SEA | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +1 |
| 10 | Logan Webb | SF | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +1 |
| 11 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +1 |
| 12 | Chris Sale | ATL | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 13 | Pablo LópezT3 | MIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 14 | Hunter Greene | CIN | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +1 |
| 15 | Hunter Brown | HOU | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 16 | Carlos Rodón | NYY | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 17 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 18 | Spencer Strider | ATL | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -4 |
| 19 | Robbie Ray | SF | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 20 | Dylan CeaseT4 | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 21 | Freddy Peralta | NYM | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 22 | Framber Valdez | DET | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +1 |
| 23 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 24 | Kris Bubic | KC | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 25 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 26 | Cristopher SánchezT5 | PHI | Holly Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +1 |
| 27 | Corbin Burnes | ARI | Holly Quality Starts | +2 |
| 28 | George Kirby | SEA | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | - |
| 29 | Kodai Senga | NYM | Holly Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 30 | Jack FlahertyT6 | DET | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 31 | Sonny Gray | BOS | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 32 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | Holly Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | +2 |
| 33 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | Holly Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 34 | Clay Holmes | NYM | Holly Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 35 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +44 |
| 36 | David Peterson | NYM | Holly Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus | +9 |
| 37 | Will Warren | NYY | Cherry Bomb Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +28 |
| 38 | Nick PivettaT7 | SD | Holly Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 39 | Bailey Ober | MIN | Holly Quality Starts | -7 |
| 40 | Lucas Giolito | SD | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | -2 |
| 41 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | Holly Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 42 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | Holly Wins Bonus | +4 |
| 43 | Griffin Canning | SD | Holly Wins Bonus | +4 |
| 44 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | Holly Quality Starts | -9 |
| 45 | Ryan WeathersT8 | NYY | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 46 | Jackson Jobe | DET | Frizzle Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 47 | Gavin Williams | CLE | Frizzle Quality Starts | +3 |
| 48 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 49 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -12 |
| 50 | Michael Wacha | KC | Toby Quality Starts | -9 |
| 51 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | +1 |
| 52 | Landen Roupp | SF | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 53 | Tanner BibeeT9 | CLE | Hipster Quality Starts | +3 |
| 54 | Shane Baz | BAL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 55 | Zac Gallen | ARI | Hipster Quality Starts | -12 |
| 56 | Luis Castillo | SEA | Hipster Quality Starts | -7 |
| 57 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | Vargas Rule Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 58 | Tyler Mahle | SF | Vargas Rule Wins Bonus | -4 |
| 59 | Grant Holmes | ATL | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 60 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | Toby Wins Bonus | +6 |
| 61 | Zach Eflin | BAL | Toby Quality Starts | -6 |
| 62 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | Toby Wins Bonus | +8 |
| 63 | Zebby MatthewsT10 | MIN | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -4 |
| 64 | Kyle Harrison | MIL | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 65 | Edward Cabrera | CHC | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 66 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 67 | Noah Cameron | KC | Frizzle Quality Starts Rotation Spot Bonus | +16 |
| 68 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 69 | Cade Horton | CHC | Frizzle Rotation Spot Bonus | -2 |
| 70 | Shane Smith | CWS | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -6 |
| 71 | Tylor Megill | NYM | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -10 |
| 72 | Dustin May | STL | Frizzle Ratio Focused | +9 |
| 73 | Casey MizeT11 | DET | Toby Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 74 | Tomoyuki Sugano | COL | Toby Quality Starts | - |
| 75 | Walker Buehler | SD | Toby Wins Bonus | +16 |
| 76 | Michael Soroka | ARI | Toby Quality Starts | -4 |
| 77 | Nick Martinez | TB | Toby Quality Starts | -6 |
| 78 | Sandy AlcantaraT12 | MIA | Hipster Ratio Focused | -21 |
| 79 | Jake Irvin | WSH | Frizzle Quality Starts | +1 |
| 80 | Max Meyer | MIA | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 81 | Jack Leiter | TEX | Frizzle Strikeout Upside | -18 |
| 82 | José SorianoT13 | LAA | Toby Quality Starts | -9 |
| 83 | Chris Paddack | MIA | Toby Quality Starts | -8 |
| 84 | Brady Singer | CIN | Toby Quality Starts | +2 |
| 85 | José Berríos | TOR | Toby Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 86 | Tony Gonsolin | SD | Toby Wins Bonus | -10 |
| 87 | Colin ReaT14 | CHC | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +7 |
| 88 | Davis Martin | CWS | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 89 | Jeffrey Springs | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR | |
| 90 | Jacob Lopez | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR | |
| 91 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 92 | Chad Patrick | MIL | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 93 | Ben Brown | CHC | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 94 | Taj Bradley | MIN | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -9 |
| 95 | Gunnar Hoglund | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | -27 | |
| 96 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -14 |
| 97 | AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -20 |
| 98 | Dean Kremer | BAL | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 99 | Cade Povich | BAL | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 100 | Brayan Bello | BOS | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
