It’s finally time for a new number one! This is less a condemnation of Ronald Acuña Jr., who I still very much believe in, and more of a credit to the amazing performance and talent of Shohei Ohtani.
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
Tier 1
- As I mentioned at the top, Shohei Ohtani is my top overall player, and no I don’t think his improved performance is due to only focusing on hitting. I believe it’s more likely that he’s reinvigorated by being on a new team with real playoff hopes combined with the fact that he’s an extremely good hitter all of the time. There’s a very real shot at 40 home runs and 30 steals with a run at a batting title, or at the very least a .300 average thanks to the sub-20% strikeout rate and the fact that he’s amazing.
- I have not enjoyed watching Bobby Witt Jr. destroy my Tigers, but gosh darnit, I respect it. The home run pace is little slow if he wants to match last season’s mark of 30, but an outburst here and there would get him back on track. I’m currently being conservative and projecting a final line around 25-28 home runs with 45-50 steals and a .290 batting average, which makes him very close to Ohtani in overall value if not for the fact that Ohtani will likely be close to Witt Jr. in runs scored and have significantly more RBI.
- I have always loved Kyle Tucker and continue to love him. He does it all and seems to add to his stat sheet every single day. Are we looking at a 40 home run, 25 stolen base campaign? I’m thinking yes.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. is still an elite player, but the return to the mortal realm after last season’s unbelievable run means he’s merely one of the best players in the game instead of easily the best player in the game. The batting line is better in May so far, even if the overall numbers are fairly pedestrian. Still, it’s a step in the right direction.
- I’m still stunned that so many people were so down on Aaron Judge.
Tier 2
- Elly De La Cruz’s legs keep the floor awfully high even when the bat fades (as it will continue to do from time to time due to his approach). Having the ability to put up 25 home runs and 60 steals means we can forgive the volatile nature of his ratios.
- Matt Olson is still striking out more than I’d like, but the three home runs over his last 11 games plus the solid ratios give me enough hope that the dark days are coming to an end.
- Yordan Alvarez is raking over his last 12 games (.957 OPS) and looks a lot more like the guy we expected.
- Julio Rodríguez stretched his on-base streak to nine on Tuesday (though his hitting streak has now ended). He has the ability to be a top-tier hitter even with a reduced supporting cast so keep holding.
Tier 3
- I wanted to move Rafael Devers higher after he absolutely dominated last week, but the main thing it did was get him back on track for 33-35 home runs after being fairly light on power in April and the first half of May (well, for his standards).
- Devers’ home run streak made it easy to forget that Gunnar Henderson was on a run of his own, going four straight games with a home run and hitting six over his last 11 games. Henderson will be a bit streaky due to his aggressive nature, but he’s capable of hitting 30-35 home runs and stealing close to 20 bags if everything keeps clicking for him.
- It’s nice to see Corey Seager hit five home runs in his last 13 games. Shouldn’t be long before we forget the slow start.
- Austin Riley will recover at the plate, but before that happens he’ll need to get healthy. It’s getting odd that he never went on the IL (and he still could), and core injuries are always a bit scary due to how they can linger.
Tier 4
- I’m giving CJ Abrams a little time before I consider moving him down in the tier. He’s gone back to his highly aggressive ways of late (which is mostly fine as he’s succeeded with that approach before) but it does make it a little more difficult. I also don’t love the reduction in steals, but that could turn around in a hurry.
- Ozzie Albies continues to disappoint, but I remain hopeful that this is more a bump in the road rather than a significant change in rest-of-season upside.
- Alex Bregman is yet another guy who slumped in April but is turning it on in May. The Astros as a whole (outside of Tucker) got off to a slow start, but it seems to be correcting itself.
Tier 5
- It’s been a forgettable month for Christian Walker. He might fall a bit short of the initial power projections we had but isn’t anywhere close to being on the roster bubble in any format.
- Jeremy Peña continues to amaze. Enjoy it.
- Yet another slump for Christopher Morel over his last 13 games, but just like before, the strikeout rate remains extremely palatable. It’s an indicator to me that he is likely to recover from these slumps in a reasonable time without completely tanking your ratios (especially in OBP).
- Nolan Arenado is making contact just fine (unlike his veteran teammate, but we’ll get to that later), but the power still hasn’t shown itself. The ratios and counting stats are enough to keep the floor pretty high, but another drop in the rankings could be on the horizon.
Tier 6
- Jarren Duran has been a much steadier contributor than I expected him to be and I love it.
- Riley Greene is slumping and it’s probably my fault. Forgive me, Riley.
Tier 7
- Are we all on the Isaac Paredes bandwagon yet? Still plenty of room, folks. The batting average will come down a bit when the extra line drives turn into grounders, but don’t fall for the Statcast numbers as his extreme pull-heavy approach makes them less reliable. You don’t need a barrel to hit a home run when you aim for the foul pole every time.
- Bryson Stott’s hot streak is bordering on legendary.
Tier 8
There is a net change of +3 to all players in this tier.
- Luis Arraez falls here because I’ve reconsidered his counting stat upside and it doesn’t add up to quite as much as I thought. He’s much better in points, of course.
- Tyler O’Neill remains cold but also remains in the middle of the lineup. I still think a hot streak is right around the corner, but the longer we wait the more skeptical I become.
Tier 9
There is a net change of +4 to all players in this tier.
- Nick Castellanos might be due for a tumble again as his little hot streak didn’t last very long, but he’s not swinging and missing and he’s not hitting it on the ground too much so I’ll be a little more patient.
- It’s good to see Ezequiel Tovar hitting well on the road, especially with a nice juicy homestand on the horizon.
- Maikel Garcia is on fire again, but the short-lived nature of his first hot streak has me playing things conservatively.
Tier 10
There is a net change of +2 to all players in this tier.
- Welcome back, Dansby Swanson. He looked good in the one game we’ve seen so far, and perhaps the time off cleared his head and will get him back on track.
- I am torn on Paul Goldschmidt. On one hand, the little power outburst helps put me at ease about his power upside. On the other, the strikeouts are still out of control.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hot again. Don’t think too hard about his ups and downs. The guy is an enigma. Just ride it out and it’ll be OK in the long run.
- Nathaniel Lowe is striking out in bunches of late and I don’t like it. Lowe’s appeal is in his high floor and strong plate discipline, but hopefully this is just a phase.
Tier 11
There is a net change of +7 to all players in this tier.
- Welcome back to Jorge Soler. Seeing him lead off is weird. I’m not reading too much into it, though, as I suspect Estrada or Matos will take that role at least semi-permanently over before long.
- Speaking of Estrada, Thairo Estrada has played quite well of late, putting just about everything in play and racking up counting stats now that he’s out of the basement of the Giants’ lineup. He’d be moved up higher if he was running, but Estrada remains at one stolen base on the season on two attempts.
- Matt Chapman has more steals than Estrada with two just in the last 11 games, which is super odd but whatever. He also has a 1.100 OPS in that stretch and a strikeout rate that’s well below 20%.
- Jo Adell makes yet another jump despite the strikeout rate climbing a bit. As long as he stays under 30% or so, the power will take care of the rest.
Tier 12
There is a net change of +12 to all players in this tier.
- This tier ended up being a collection of guys who moved pretty far in one direction or another (mostly up).
- Lars Nootbaar is finally taking full advantage of the opportunity he’s been given in St. Louis and seems locked into the top third of the lineup on any given day.
- Alex Verdugo hits right behind Soto and Judge and that’s a fantastic situation that helps get the most fantasy juice out of his contact-first hitting style and limited power and speed.
- Danny Jansen has been quite effective when healthy over the last few seasons but health has been incredibly fleeting. The last and only time Jansen got himself into 100 games at the big league level was 2019.
- Ian Happ’s skill set isn’t exciting enough for me to keep holding him in the top 100 any longer. He’ll probably be fine in the long term but in shallow leagues with three outfielders I’m fine if you want to stream something instead. Happ’s profile is best suited to OBP leagues and deeper leagues that appreciate his volume.
Tier 13
There is a net change of +16 to all players in this tier.
- Starling Marte sits a few times a week and that’s probably best for his health but not for your fantasy lineup, especially if you have a short bench.
- Jackson Chourio falls a bit as he continues to struggle, but the plate discipline has been quite good for a while and I think he can turn the corner. It’s all just a matter of when, which is impossible to know. He’s another guy who, if you have no bench spots available for hitters, can be replaced with a streamer in a redraft setting.
- Andy Pages is striking out too much and only moved up because of the net change.
- José Caballero has lost playing time to Rosario lately, and that scares me because I assumed it was safe. The return of Brandon Lowe had more impact than I hoped.
- Zach Neto would be so much more interesting if he was leading off and he really should be.
- I had been overlooking Tyler Stephenson and I’m sorry. He’s looking as strong as ever and it’s not being driven by lucky line drives or a fluke. Instead, it’s a hard-hit rate over 50%.
Tier 14
There is a net change of +12 to all players in this tier.
- Abraham Toro won’t wow you with home runs or steals, but in the barren wasteland that is the third base waiver wire, he has been a godsend.
- Luis Rengifo is a jack of all trades on both the box score and the diamond, which is fairly convenient with all of the injuries impacting rosters.
- Dylan Moore was an exciting infielder to follow a few years back in fantasy drafts, but contact issues, injuries, and platoons pushed him to obscurity. He’s back on the radar again thanks to improved plate discipline and what appears to be a more stable role in Seattle. Speed is the main attribute he’ll bring to the table, but there’s a bit of pop in here too. In a full season where he put everything together, he could maybe hit 15 home runs and swipe 25-30 bases, though that dream year isn’t terribly likely.
- I like Luis Matos more in points leagues than anywhere else as his profile is quite similar to the guy he replaced (Jung Hoo Lee) in that it’s mostly ratios with a handful of home runs. That said, leading off regularly would lead to a nice set of runs scored and make him relevant in all formats even when he’s not blistering hot like he is now.
Tier 15
There is a net change of +12 to all players in this tier.
- Zack Gelof doesn’t resemble the fun guy with a softball player swing we saw in 2023. The 20-20 upside keeps him on the list for now, but we’ll see how much more patient I can be if he keeps putting up hitless nights.
- I love Edouard Julien but he is in a full platoon and has a streaky nature, which makes it tough to push through the bad times in 12-team formats. If you do drop him, keep him on your watch list, especially if the strikeout rate comes down.
- Welcome back to the list, Colton Cowser. Regular playing time and some heat goes a long way.
- Ceddanne Rafaela has 20-20 upside of his own, but continues to disappoint outside of stray irregular outbursts.
- Max Kepler fell pretty hard after going cold and getting benched a few times a week. Baseball is a fickle game.
- Josh Bell finally looks like Josh Bell again, and while that isn’t a star over the course of a full season, he’s got enough plate discipline and pop to be a lineup mainstay if he can keep the darn ball off the ground once in a while.
- Brandon Lowe came back to a pretty large role and I kind of knew he would. Tampa has always seemed to have a soft spot for him no matter his struggles.
- Evan Carter is now in a full platoon after sitting against three straight left-handed starters.
- Nick Gonzales has some pop and is showing dramatically improved plate discipline right now. He’s a former first-round pick who has been buried in prospect rankings because of his strikeout issues but if he can continue to strikeout under 30% of the time there should be plenty of playing time available for him in Pittsburgh.
Taxi Squad
This year, the Taxi Squad will be a handful of players at each position who either are on the cusp of the list or who have been hot topics of late.
Another update: Hitters who appear to be out for an extended period of time will end up in the Taxi Squad until they return to the roster.
Catcher
- Luis Campusano (C, SDP) — 15 home runs and a good average are still useful at catcher.
- Elias Díaz (C, COL) — Always streamable at home.
- Connor Wong (C/2B, BOS) — Makes a ton of contact and is getting batted ball luck, but can fill in for you when the matchups are right. Starting to hit second sometimes?
- MJ Melendez (C/OF, KCR) — Only interesting if he’s catcher-eligible, and even then, I’m streaming instead right now.
- Gary Sánchez (C, MIL) — Sure, why not?
- Travis d’Arnaud (C, ATL) — Eventually Murphy will be back but until then he’s a primary catcher on a good offense.
- Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) — A fine fantasy catcher, but with so many producing there’s not a need to hold onto a slumping one unless there’s a lot of upside.
- Mitch Garver (C, SEA) — Overdue for a hot streak but too much talent out there to keep waiting.
First Base
- Jonathan Aranda (1B/DH, TBR) — Part-time player with full-time ability.
- Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) — Likely a strict platoon, at least for now.
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — It’s a strict platoon. Stream against righties and nothing else.
- Ty France (1B, SEA) — The situation is decent and the playing time is secure, but he’s just a streamer in most 10- and 12-team leagues.
- Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) — Never underestimate how difficult the transition to the majors will be, but the minor league numbers were stellar.
- Jon Singleton (1B, HOU) — The plate discipline and power are great but the batting average is unlikely to ever be helpful.
- Miguel Vargas (1B, LAD) — He’s patient to a fault, making him uninteresting even if he played more.
- Andrew Vaughn (1B, CHW) — Well, that little hot streak was fun.
Second Base
- Jonathan India (2B, CIN) — We will take a look again when or if he ever makes it back to the leadoff role.
- Jorge Polanco (2B, SEA) — Was hot for a minute there, but the strikeouts killed it.
- Josh Rojas (2B/3B, SEA) — Gets hot from time to time, but there isn’t a ton of long-term upside.
- Nolan Gorman (2B, STL) — A streaky power hitter who is now at the bottom of the order.
- José Fermín (2B, STL) — Amazing plate discipline in Triple-A so far, but don’t expect much (if any) power.
- Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL) — Streamable when in Coors.
- Orlando Arcia (2B, ATL) — Valuable when he’s hitting, but the cold streaks are long and brutal.
- Michael Massey (2B, KC) — I don’t think there’s full-season appeal here (unless he can keep hitting fifth), but he’s worth a stream while this offense is hot.
Third Base
- Colt Keith (2B/3B, DET) — Making tons of contact, but we haven’t really seen any power come with it.
- Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Raking in the minors and would help the major league club, but I worry a call-up won’t lead to immediate playing time, even if he can play second base (so can Aranda).
- Tyler Freeman (2B/3B/OF) — Decent prospect with a good hit tool and some speed but very limited pop.
- Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — There’s no room for him but the power and plate discipline (prior to 2024) is exciting.
- Edmundo Sosa (3B/SS, PHI) — Had a nice run against a bunch of lefties but still likely in a platoon.
Shortstop
- Masyn Winn (SS, STL) — Getting a bit lucky, but very interesting if he can get out of the bottom of the order and/or keep running.
- Blaze Alexander (SS, ARI) — Plate discipline is good but slashing .152/.282/.182 in his last 13 games.
- J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) — Not yet showing the improved power from last year.
- Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL) — Long-term outlook hasn’t changed, but the O’s are in a tough spot.
Outfield/DH
- Jordan Beck (OF, COL) — The power and speed is cool but the discipline is not.
- Joc Pederson (OF, ARI) — Interesting in spurts as a power streamer against righties.
- Willie Calhoun (DH, LAA) — Hitting a ton of line drives, which is unlikely to last long.
- Eddie Rosario (OF, WAS) — Extremely streaky and far from reliable. Streamer at best.
- Austin Hays (OF, BAL) — Sat on his first game back.
- Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Strikes out a ton and very streaky, but fine to stream.
- Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) — This recent power outburst is likely a mirage, but he’s streamable in most points formats.
- Jesse Winker (OF, WAS) — Banged up and not performing.
- James Wood (OF, WAS) — Top-10 prospect with plenty of pop but may not be up until mid-summer (or later).
- Richie Palacios (OF, TBR) — Sat twice in the last three games against righties. Aranda and Lowe are on rehab and their return will impact his playing time even more. Droppable in all mixed leagues.
- Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — What was the point of all this?
- Cedric Mullins (OF, BAL) — Hard to recommend him in shallower leagues when he doesn’t play against all right-handed starters.
- Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — If you want a silver lining, he rebounded nicely after his last trip to the minors.
- JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) — Mildly intriguing as a streamer in OBP leagues.
- Vidal Bruján (OF, MIA) — Has elite speed, no power, and a fresh opportunity.
- Jonny DeLuca (OF, TBR) — Plate discipline will remain good but has very limited power and speed.
- James Outman (OF, LAD) — The general mediocrity of the other outfielders in LA wasn’t enough to keep him in the bigs.
- Will Benson (OF, CIN) — The strikeouts are tough to watch outside of OBP, and I think the Reds want someone more reliable leading off.
- Mark Canha (1B/OF, DET) — Mostly valuable in points leagues.
- Chas McCormick (OF, HOU) — Meyers and Loperfido seems to have forced their way into the rotation at McCormick’s expense.
- Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) — You can chase the talent, but the injury risk, strikeouts, and prolonged slumps have worn me out.
IL Stashes
- Willson Contreras (C, STL) — What a bummer. Should be back within about two months.
- Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) — We will check back in late summer.
- Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — No clear timetable yet. Will likely be a Top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B, CIN) — We will check back in June.
- Matt McLain (2B, CIN) — Not back until the last month or two of the season.
- Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Will likely be a Top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — Will likely be a Top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready, but the injury threat will still loom large.
- Max Muncy (3B, LAD) — Will likely be a Top 50 to 75 player when he’s ready.
- Trea Turner (SS, PHI) — We will check back on his status in June.
- Rhys Hoskins (OF, MIL) — Should be back in a few weeks, likely ranked around 70-80.
- TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) — I’m not stashing him unless I have a very deep IL.
- Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — He should be back this season and should definitely be stashed on ILs. Should be in the top 25-35 on his return.
- Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CWS) — Should be in Tier 3 or Tier 4 when he’s ready to go.
- Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) — I’m curious to see if he gets a demotion instead of a rehab assignment. Wasn’t overmatched, but wasn’t performing.
- Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) — We will check back in June. Should be near the Top 75 on his return.
- Nolan Jones (OF, COL) — Rehab is on hold but it doesn’t seem too serious. Buys me some time to figure out where I want to rank him on his return. Only 11 PA so far in triple-A, but they have been terrible.
- Lane Thomas (OF, WAS) — Without a timetable to return, but will be around 80-100 when he’s back.
- Eloy Jiménez (DH, CHW) — Death, taxes, yada yada yad
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)
Bryce Harper?! You lose all credibility by forgetting him.
Good thing he’s there, then! I agree it’d be pretty bad, though I have to admit that some inaugural lists have been missing a high-level player – usually a guy who missed a big chunk of time at the end of the season.
? tier 2, #12
Great work as always, Scott. Massey is in the notes, but not the chart. Is he #135½?
I did a last minute pivot and wanted to put him in the Taxi Squad instead. I remembered to take him off the list, but forgot to move the blurb. This is now fixed.
You prefer all these catchers over Sean Murphy?
I think people forget just how ugly it was to roster him last year, specially when the summer started. He sat 2-3 times a week (or more), and while he was OK when he played, he didn’t play enough. He finished just inside the top-10 at catcher last year, but it all came from April-June. He’ll get ranked when I see he plays regularly.
Where do you see Ke’Bryan Hayes ranking when he is healthy again?
Towards the back until he shows us some pop again.
His contract & them dealing Contreras for him make me think they give him a good shot.
I agree though, something was off late last year…
Still though 21 homers in under 400 ab? In that ATL lineup?
Some will prob. Regret not having him if he gets back in. Looks like an easy add to me.