Streaming stolen bases is a HUGE deal this time of year, so here’s a little guide for which teams to target/avoid for the next week or so if you’re trying to make up ground on the basepaths:
Easy for Steals: Reds, Brewers, Astros, Cubs
Tough for Steals: Angels, Rockies, Marlins, Yankees, A’s, Pirates, Rays
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at No. 55 and Player Y is ranked at No. 65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally prefer Player X, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
Ranking Philosophy
To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
- If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats—regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last over a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends can give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments below!
Read The Notes
- These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.
By the way, this is the time of year where rankings matter a lot less than filling a specific need. It is not unusual for your needs and circumstances to take a player who is two (or in some cases, maybe even three) tiers lower in my rankings because they provide something you need. For example, while I rank Adolis García at 104, there are many scenarios I could see where I recommend Joey Ortiz instead
Tier 1
- No changes at the top. These three guys are my first three off the board in standard formats and there is very little that could change this from now until the end of the season.
Tier 2
- The first round is going to be very deep next year. The second round, too.
Tier 3
- Possibly also the third round!
- Matt Olson should get over the 30 home run hump in the next two weeks or so, delivering a season somewhat similar to his 2022. If you’re into strange trends, Olson has been much better in the odd-numbered years than in the even-numbered years beginning with the 2019 season. I’m not going to say his name, but many folks who play another fantasy sport will be able to think of a certain player from Buffalo who was famous for this. The strength of Olson’s September and October will dictate just how far back up draft boards he climbs heading into the offseason. This high ranking assumes he continues to hit for plenty of power through the end of the season and comes into next season as an early-round bounce-back candidate.
Tier 4
- Welcome back, Fernando Tatis Jr.! There’s no such thing as Still Ill for hitters like there is with pitchers, so get him right back in your lineups. Sure, there might be some rust, but there’s no way I’m sitting him unless it’s a six-team league and I have an all-star bench. As long as this offense continues to hum, I want to keep playing the guys in the top half of the order.
- Corbin Carroll might actually hit more home runs in 2024 than he did in 2023 despite such a long drought to start the year. He will likely be a second round pick next spring if he hits even somewhat above average for the rest of the season. The only issues in his way for the short-term are a mildly-tough schedule for the rest of this week and a few off days.
Tier 5
- Jackson Chourio’s breakout continues. Over his last 60 games, Chourio has 12 home runs, 86 combined runs and RBI, 12 steals, and a .328/.380/.570 line. There will likely be bumps in the road, but he looks every bit like the guy who was considered one of the top fantasy prospects in the game this spring. He’s definitely capable of going 25-25 next season, the only real question is whether he can work through future slumps fast enough to get to something like 30-30.
- I am once again urging you not to consider cutting Julio Rodriguez. He drops a bit due to a few players coming back from injury or just being really good, but he stayed in this tier for a reason.
Tier 6
- It was an ugly couple of series for Royce Lewis, but like others this close to the top of the rankings, they’re too good to bench. Don’t get too cute with “hot hands” just because it’s September. I’ve seen far too many people lose those bets than they win them. There is no real correlation between being hot one week to being hot the next (unless the player is very good to begin with).
- Welcome back, Christian Walker! He’s been fantastic this season when healthy and you should plug him right back into your lineups.
Tier 7
- Jackson Merrill seems poised to get to 25 home runs despite having three months where he hit two or fewer home runs (April, May, and July). It’s clear this kid can hit, but the power is difficult to project for 2025.
- Adley Rutschman’s ugly second half continues as he’s now hitting .209/.286/.310 since the Break. He’s actually striking out just 11.6% of the time during this slump, but he’s hitting a lot of pop-ups and weaker fly balls, which are basically never hits. I believe he’ll find his groove eventually and he’s too good to cut for any ol’ streaming catcher, but I understand if you are hesitant to start him over a guy like Tyler Stephenson.
Tier 8
- Speaking of Tyler Stephenson, he has seven home runs and a 171 wRC+ since the start of August. The pitching ahead is a bit tougher than what he’s seen for the last two weeks, but on the plus side, the reds don’t have another day off for nearly two weeks which should mean plenty of volume for Stephenson.
- Brent Rooker’s pendulum is swinging back in the right direction after a bit of a lull, and most importantly, the lull didn’t last that long. Avoiding prolonged slumps is essential in the transformation from regular power hitter to a special one. As I’ll mention later, Oakland is about to hit a tough stretch of pitching, so I am curious to see how he and the rest of the offense handle it.
Tier 9
- The overall numbers for CJ Abrams will be slightly better than they were in 2023, but because of the big drop-off in steals, the fantasy production will be considerably less. On the bright side, he’s been running more in the second half, with 13 steals in 38 games after stealing only 15 in 89 games before the break. 28 steals wouldn’t normally be considered a disappointment, but when you’ve got elite speed and have spent a lot of time near the top of the order for the most aggressive team in the league, you’d hope for a little more. Getting caught 12 times so far hasn’t helped, though the biggest thorn in his side would be sitting against more left-handed pitching.
- Cal Raleigh is slumping, though his profile is prone to that. If you need power at catcher, there are few other players who can hit dingers like Cal (Ryan Jeffers would be the only one who I can think of that is both hot and might be on your wire, and in terms of home run potential, it’s a short-term side-grade at best).
- Marcus Semien will give you volume and runs scored, but if you need power or speed you might have to start looking elsewhere.
- Triston Casas is having a rough go of it over the last seven games, but he should be due for a power surge any minute as he continues to adjust to major league offerings.
- I’m not that concerned about Spencer Torkelson’s strikeouts as I believe they are just part of the adjustments he’s made at the plate. Making adjustments to pitch selection and how you attack certain pitches can cause side effects like that and I think it will resolve itself by the end of the season.
Tier 10
- Junior Caminero is adapting to major league pitching nicely and will be a candidate to hit 30 home runs next year with solid ratios.
- Gleyber Torres is hitting well and leading off and that is all that matters.
- Jonathan India continues to do a solid job in the leadoff role in Cincy, and he should chip in some steals over the next week as the Reds are both very aggressive and also about to run into a couple of teams who don’t defend the running game well.
Tier 11
- Brice Turang should steal several bases over the next week as the Brew Crew hits a stretch of opponents who give up plenty of stolen bases.
- Xander Bogaerts has been better since coming off the IL than he was to start the year, but if you desperately need home runs or steals, you might want to look elsewhere for the rest of the season.
Tier 12
- I won’t pretend to understand this vintage form of Eugenio Suárez, but he’s slugging .605 in the second half and hitting .290 and I guess he can probably do that for another week at least. I have no confidence he can do this over anything close to a full season, but with just a month left to go, that’s not as relevant point as it would normally be. The 22.5% strikeout rate is the most surprising part of his second half by far, and if it continues through the rest of the year, he might find himself in the middle-to-late round of drafts even in standard leagues for those who didn’t get enough power early on.
- Josh Jung is going to be terribly streaky due to the contact issues, but if you can afford to ride the wave he’ll give you bursts of power in a way few others can.
- Welcome back, Xavier Edwards! The schedule isn’t great for steals in the short term, but he’ll keep leading off for the Marlins and he’s been mostly matchup-proof for speed since being given that role.
Tier 13
- It won’t be easy for Jackson Holliday to keep scoring runs while hitting eighth or ninth and striking out in bunches, but it’s nice to see the stolen bases. There’s elite talent in Holliday, but it’s still locked behind strikeouts.
- Ryan Jeffers is hot again and has more power than most catchers.
Tier 14
- Before you yell at me, I realize that many of you would rank Lawrence Butler higher than this right now due to the unbelievable heat in his bat. The craziest thing is that this isn’t even his hottest stretch of the season, which was back in July. What followed that hot streak was a brutal slump, and with a tough slew of pitching on the horizon, I am a little worried that the production will slow down. Not worried enough to bench him, of course, especially not with the strikeout rate looking fantastic and the never-ending stream of home runs, but my expectations are a bit tempered. That said, the rank itself isn’t too important for Butler in terms of what you’re doing with him right now. You’re confidently starting him until you have a reason not to.
- I’m not sure how much I buy Daulton Varsho or Pete Crow-Armstrong for the long-term, but for the latter, the Cubs should have good opportunities to steal.
- TJ Friedl was overdue for a ranking correction.
- Some of you are going to drop Adolis García and I get it. I won’t stop you, especially in shallower formats. Before you do, though, let’s see if he can beat up on the Angels.
- I knew this would happen. I finally remove Paul Goldschmidt from the list, and he absolutely mashes. Now that he’s back, he’ll flame out. I cannot win and should just accept that.
Tier 15
- Wyatt Langford just might show us that he has the upside the other three members of the preseason prospect triumvirate (with Chourio and Holliday). He has four home runs and 27 combined runs and RBI in his last 17 games and recently hit second in the order. If you’re looking for a sparkplug and his former manager let him go (rightfully), you can scoop him up.
- Matt Wallner has power and will light up righties, but should be avoided against lefties and the streakiness is not a fluke.
- Tyler Fitzgerald is crumbling under the weight of his strikeouts. If he can find a way to keep that rate below 30%, he can definitely be relevant, but if the strikeouts stay up like this, it wil be hard for Fitzgerald to keep a prominent role in the offense.
- Lars Nootbaar is swinging a hot bat and is playing every day, so if you need some OBP and counting stats with a bit of pop, there you go.
- Joey Ortiz, like Turang, should be due for some steals if you need them.
- Dropping Ryan McMahon until he’s back at home is fine.
- Whit Merrifield cleared concussion protocol but may have lost the leadoff spot in Atlanta, which was a huge part of his value.
- Ceddanne Rafaela has a solid combination of power and speed, but he’s streaky due to contact issues. If he gets hot again he’ll get a full-time role back, but you probably should cut him if you can’t afford to bench him.
- Cedric Mullins is playing a lot and has speed.
- Kyle Stowers played against two lefties in a row and that’s a big deal. I th8ink the contact issues are still a problem, but if you’re a believer in the 35 home runs he hit in 126 games in triple-A since the start of 2023, then stream away.
Taxi Squad
This year, the Taxi Squad will be a handful of players at each position who either are on the cusp of the list or have been hot topics of late.
Players are listed in no particular order.
Another update: Relevant hitters who hit the IL will end up in the IL Stashes section until they return to the active roster.
Catcher
- Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) — Unable to unlock his prodigious power.
- Connor Wong (C, BOS) — Fine streaming catcher.
- Jonah Heim (C, TEX) — His history of being mediocre is a lot longer than his history of being good..
- Danny Jansen (C, BOS) — Only interesting right now as a trivia question.
- Kyle Higashioka (C, SDP) — Decent streaming catcher.
- Sean Murphy (C, ATL) — Playing about half the time now.
- Freddy Fermin (C, KCR) — Getting some time at DH gets him on my radar. Can provide batting average, but the rest is hit or miss.
- Logan O’Hoppe (C, LAA) — I like the talent but catcher is too deep to wait for a turnaround on a team that seems checked out.
First Base
- Luke Raley (1B/OF, SEA) — Power and speed that comes with streakiness and contact issues.
- Carlos Santana (1B, MIN) — Streamable in spurts, especially in OBP.
- Ty France (1B, CIN) — Playing every day so far and hits fourth against lefties.
- Justin Turner (1B/2B/3B, SEA) — In a platoon.
- Luken Baker (1B, STL) — Walks, has pop, and might get some run at DH with Contreras on the IL.
- Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA) — Back to being a points league play.
- Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — He’s great against righties, but he actually sat against one recently and it scares me.
- Michael Busch (1B, CHC) — Platooned and cold.
- Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) — Curious to see if he can show enough to be worth attention for 2025.
- Anthony Rizzo (1B, NYY) — Hasn’t showed us much since early 2023.
Second Base
- Jeff McNeil (2B/OF, NYM) — That power came out of nowhere and seems to have disappeared.
- Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF, LAD) — He’ll play and is an OK speed streamer. The bat should not be trusted (except against lefties, maybe).
- Nick Gonzales (2B, PIT) — Has power and hits in the middle of the order, but I want to see if he brings the approach he had pre-injury before ranking him again.
- David Hamilton (2B/SS, BOS) — If he starts hitting second again with regularity, he’ll be back on the list.
- Zack Gelof (2B, OAK) — Hasn’t been able to recreate any of the 2023 magic.
- Nolan Gorman (2B, STL) — Maybe he’ll get right in the minors? He’s only a hold in exceptionally deep dynasty formats.
- Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF, SEA) — Speed streamer.
- Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, TOR) — Hits near the middle of the order but not doing much with it.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B/3B/SS, PIT) — Plays regularly but has an extremely low ceiling.
- Brooks Lee (2B/3B/SS, MIN) — Should be more consistent with more playing time, should be relevant in 2025.
Third Base
- Josh Smith (3B/SS/OF, TEX) — Now in a platoon.
- Jace Jung (2B/3B, DET) — Worth a scoop in OBP leagues as he’ll walk plenty. Not sure if we see the power right away, though.
- Noelvi Marte (3B, CIN) — There’s a little life here, but I’m not sure I’m that interested in chasing it in standard-sized leagues.
- Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — Hitting third in Detroit is slightly more appealing now that they’re healthier.
- Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — He’ll be fine, eventually.
- José Caballero (2B/3B/SS, TBR) — Speedy and streaky slap-hitter who sits two or three times a week.
- Gio Urshela (1B/3B, ATL) — His new team has quickly given him the everyday job with Riley out.
- Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, TBR) — Too much ugly contact and unable to sustain production when he heats up.
- José Tena (3B/SS, WAS) — Poor hit tool but has the power and aggression to go on a tear now and again.
Shortstop
- Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) — Versatile, speedy, and consistently inconsistent.
- Paul DeJong (SS, KCR) — Power streamer.
- Ernie Clement (3B/SS, TOR) — Seems to be the guy who will get time with Bichette out.
- Jose Miranda (1B/3B, MIN) — In a platoon.
- Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL) — Plays every day, but runs extremely hot and cold (mostly the latter).
- J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) — Straight back to the leadoff spot, though whether he does enough to be relevant is another matter.
Outfield/DH
- Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) — Back to being cold.
- Jorge Soler (OF, ATL) — Injury timing was as bad as it could get.
- Trevor Larnach (OF, MIN) — In a platoon, power streamer/flyer.
- Alex Verdugo (OF, NYY) — He has been given golden opportunities and he continues to squander them, from a fantasy perspective at least.
- David Peralta (OF, SDP) — In a platoon.
- Lane Thomas (OF, WAS) — An unbelievable fall (for fantasy purposes) as Cleveland is sitting him at least twice a week with no particular rhyme or reason to it.
- Nolan Jones (OF, COL) — Just doesn’t seem to have it.
- Victor Scott II (OF, STL) — Playing well and running, but I expect more downs than ups in 2024 due to the hit tool.
- Jarred Kelenic (OF, ATL) — In a platoon, and somehow on the short side of it.
- Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) — Might see him in September, but it’s a crowded outfield situation.
- Jesse Winker (OF, NYM) — In a platoon.
- Eloy Jiménez (DH, BAL) — In a platoon.
- Jesus Sanchez (OF, MIA) Hits the ball hard but doesn’t pull it much, killing his home run upside.
- Jordan Beck (OF, COL) — He’s up, but the strikeouts are really hard to stomach.
- Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) — Slappy leadoff hitter on one of the worst offenses of the modern era.
- Jacob Young (OF, WAS) — Speedsters in Washington have the greenest of green lights.
- Harrison Bader (OF, NYM) — Has speed and some pop with terrible contact and extreme injury risk.
- Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Cold and hits near the bottom of the order.
- Rece Hinds (OF, CIN) — Those first six games in July were cool but I’m not adding him in any format.
- Michael Conforto (OF, SFG) — In a platoon.
- Bryan De La Cruz (OF, PIT) — Hasn’t given us much to get excited about in Pittsburgh.
IL Stashes
This section has been expanded to include players who may be on your radar for 2025
- Willson Contreras (C, STL) — Droppable.
- Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI) — Points and OBP catcher who can provide ratios and a bit of counting stats with single-digit power and speed.
- Joey Bart (C, PIT) — Droppable.
- Endy Rodríguez (C, PIT) — Former top-20 prospect with a plus hit tool. Should be the primary backstop in 2025.
- Patrick Bailey (C, SFG) — Completely fell apart in August. Droppable but a fringey streamer who is dependent on BABIP.
- Ryan Mountcastle (1B, BAL) —
- Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B, CIN) — Droppable unless you’ve got an open IL spot.
- Anthony Rizzo (1B, NYY) — Not expecting an impact in 2024 but should play somewhere in 2025.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, CIN) — Solid 2023 followed by abysmal 2024. Power is legitimate, though.
- Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) — Hopefully a short stint on the IL.
- Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B/SS, SDP) — Unless you need speed or have a free IL spot, you might just drop him.
- Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL) — For fantasy purposes, Albies is out for the season. He’ll be a bounce-back/buy-low candidate for 2025.
- Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, BAL) — A broken hand likely keeps him out of your playoff push, though he may be back in late September.
- Luis Rengifo (2B/3B/SS/OF) — Hopefully he can recover fully by next season.
- Matt McLain (2B, CIN) — Mild setback, but could still be back by the end of the month.
- Ronny Mauricio (2B/SS, NYM) — 20/20 upside in 2025, but the aggressive approach could cause problems.
- Ramón Urías (2B/3B, BAL) — Droppable if your IL is full.
- Austin Riley (3B, ATL) — For fantasy purposes, this ends his season.
- Bo Bichette (SS, TOR) — He’ll be out multiple weeks and if my IL was full with top-75 guys, I’d probably cut him.
- Carlos Correa (SS, MIN) — Good signs so far. Could be back by the end of the month.
- Trevor Story (SS, BOS) — I’m not interested for 2024 but he’s under contract until at least the end of next season and will get looks when healthy.
- Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU) — This thing keeps dragging on. He could be back for September. Top-five player on return.
- Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) — Just kidding he’s done.
- Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — Done for the year.
- Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) — Not surprising in any way but still a bummer. Should be back by early September
- Evan Carter (OF, TEX) — Likely out for the season.
- Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — Not relevant for 2024 but he’ll be someone to watch for in 2025.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) — Obviously, he’s a drop in redraft leagues. Still top-5 in dynasty.
- Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK) — When allowed to play, he will steal bases.
- Kris Bryant (OF, COL) — He’s on the books until 2028 and will play when healthy.
- Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT) — Makes good decisions and is useful in OBP, but will he give it another go in 2025?
- Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SFG) — I’m not too worried about the shoulder issue impacting him in 2025. Solid points league potential.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF, ARI) — Droppable if your IL is full with higher upside plays.
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Little help please. Which of these guys for this coming week. Crews, carpenter, Ramos, Thomas, moniak, friedl, laureano.
Also how about pena, Winn, or story to replace Rafaela?
Thanks!
I think you basically ranked those players in the order I’d value them, though perhaps moniak over Lane thomas and perhaps Laureano over Friedl.
As for shortstops, I think Pena gives you the best balance of floor and ceiling assuming it’s a redraft.
Would you consider Tyler Fitzgerald over Pena?