Top 300 Hitters For Fantasy Baseball 2024

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It’s time for the longest rankings article of my career, with 300 players ranked and with comments on EVERY ranked player.

As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.

I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.

I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for me over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.

Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed in the off-season. That’s because these are only mine—no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.

I’m doing my best to use 5 starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

Ranking Philosophy

To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

In 12-team formats, I just don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.

If I want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart, which I’ll also reference as appropriate. You can also get rolling charts from sources like FanGraphs or Baseball Savant. If you have any questions about how to do that or how to read these charts, reach out to me!

No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.

Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.

On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.

Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.

If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on the website formerly known as Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!

After doing some early drafting and looking at my rankings, I’ve come up with three things I’m going to try to do in every draft. Those three things are:

1. Start adjusting your draft board after your very first pick. Every pick comes with inherent strengths, weaknesses, and risks that should be factored into how you value players the next time you’re up to make a selection. Picked a very safe guy in the first two rounds? Then your risk appetite for a player like Royce Lewis or Mike Trout in a future round can be more aggressive. Did you draft a speedy guy like Ronald Acuña Jr. or Bobby Witt Jr. in the first round? Then you might slide CJ Abrams or Esteury Ruiz down (or even off) your board. These rankings can’t make that adjustment for you, but hopefully, they can provide a starting point and highlight certain players who have significant value fluctuations based on roster construction.

2. The catching pool is very deep. I see at least 14 catchers you can justify drafting at some point in a single-catcher format and a couple after that who you can look at for a replacement if things start sour. This is a huge shift from prior years, and while some of the top catchers deserve a premium, the gap between the top tier and the next two or three tiers is not what it used to be.

3. Try to get at least one top-15 outfielder, if not two. I rarely provide such specific instructions, but this group of players is insanely talented. If you’re in a 15-team format, you will need to use a first-round pick to secure one of these guys so it may not work out based on how the first round works out, but in 12-teamers you generally have about two rounds to make this happen. There are players with elite upside after this grouping, of course, it starts to get messier in a hurry.

Read The Notes

I took the time to write one on every single hitter, so if you’re going to argue (which is allowed and encouraged), at least try to get some idea of why I ranked the player where I did or what I generally feel about them.

These rankings talk about what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also take into account performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.

UPDATE 2/11: Joc Pederson added as #245. Adam Duvall dropped to #284. Nick Madrigal removed.

Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring Scott Chu and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!

I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.

Tier 1

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) – Fun fact, in each season where Ronald Acuña Jr. has played at least 120 games, he’s hit 41 home runs. Sure, that’s exactly two times (2019 and 2023), but the upside is simply that intense. Acuña was already an elite talent, and then in 2023 he cut his strikeout rate in half and turned into a true five-category contributor. Acuña is the hands-down number-one pick in all drafts and all formats.

2. Julio Rodríguez (OF, SEA) – J-Rod put up a 30-30 season with a strong batting average and oodles of counting stats in his sophomore campaign, and while he doesn’t have the upside of Acuña, Rodríguez’s upside is on par with any other hitter in the league. We’ve seen a few lulls here and there, but that’s absolutely normal and fine for a young player getting acclimated to major-league pitching. Seeing him overcome these challenges and return to elite production is the mark of a superstar.

4. Mookie Betts (2B/SS/OF, LAD) – News that Betts will be the everyday second baseman for the Dodgers is fun because it means he’ll retain his most valuable position in all formats for at least another two seasons. The new stolen base rules didn’t help Betts get back to his pre-2020 speed totals, but a career-high 39 home runs and 233 combined runs and RBI with a .307 batting average makes the lower stolen base totals a non-issue. Betts is locked into the top of the order for the Dodgers, and his fantastic plate discipline ensures the ratios and counting stats will continue to pour in. Those in formats where you need 20 starts to gain positional eligibility won’t be able to plug Betts in as a shortstop, but that doesn’t impact his value in any way. Betts is the clear top dog at second base and also near the top in the outfield, and that’s what matters most.

5. Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) – Freddie Freeman hasn’t finished at the top of the first base standings since 2018, which sounds bad until I add in the fact that he’s finished in the top two at first base for six consecutive seasons. Freeman finished second at first base again in 2023, though he was also the third-best hitter overall so it’s not as though he wasn’t close. You won’t find a more consistent player, especially at first base where the top talent vastly outshines the middle tiers. The power rebounded in 2023, the ratios and counting stats stayed elite, and there’s nothing to indicate that 2024 will be any different. Make the safe pick and feel awesome about it.

6. Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU) – I’ve never been shy about how much I love Tucker ever since I saw him constantly give pitchers a tough time in his first “full” season in 2020. His 60 combined home runs and stolen bases with over 200 combined runs and RBI should be the norm for this in-his-prime outfielder, and his .294 and .284 batting averages in 2021 and 2023 feel far more like Tucker’s true talent than his .257 in 2022. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as some of the other players in this range, but his remarkable consistency and projected promotion to the actual heart of the Astros lineup suggests yet another fantastic season for the young outfielder.

Tier 2

7. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) – If Judge plays 140 games, he’s going to hit 45 home runs or more. It’s a given at this point, considering he walloped 37 of them in just 106 games in 2023. The only real concern with Judge is the health, which is a bummer after he spent all of 2021 and 2022 in the lineup. That said, ranking Judge eighth is only happening because of that risk, so don’t take the bait of a “double penalty” and drop him out of this tier in your ranks. The upside is way too high to make that kind of blunder, as there is no better bet to lead the American League (and all of baseball) in home runs than a healthy Aaron Judge.

The addition of Soto to the lineup should also mean more counting stats as the 2023 Yankees were simply dying for a hitter other than Judge (and to a lesser extent, Torres) to help carry their offense.

8. Juan Soto (OF, NYY) – If you’re designing a swing decision model, the best way to test that it works is to see what it says about Soto. If it says he’s amazing, then the model is working. It was great to see Soto hit more home runs than he did in the infamous 2019 rabbit ball season while also getting back to double-digit stolen bases. 2022 was a weird year for him, but the resurgence in 2023 tells us what we already should have known—that 2022 was a fluke.

The most impactful part of the move to New York is the improved home run environment, going from the 10th worst home run park for lefties to the third best. This gives Soto a better shot at finding 40 home runs for the first time in his career if he feels like pulling more fly balls, but I’d say the baseline is still 33-35 home runs with elite ratios. Weirdly enough, Yankee Stadium had the second lowest Expected Home Runs by Park according to Statcast for Soto with 27, tied with Progressive Field and Kauffman Stadium, which are notoriously tough home run parks for southpaws.

9. Shohei Ohtani (UT, LAD) – His elbow surgery shouldn’t scare you too much—Ohtani played nearly every game in 2019 after he returned to the lineup in May, and his surgery was so early that he should be ready to go for Spring Training in the batter’s box. Now that Ohtani is a Dodger, I feel comfortable penciling in 38 or more home runs and an obscene number of runs and RBI—both Betts and Freeman had over 230 combined runs and RBI and even if you see a bit of dilution with Ohtani being added, all three are sure to clear 200 with upside for much more.

10. Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI) – You couldn’t ask for much more from Carroll’s first full season. He significantly improved his plate discipline from his cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022, and his upside is on par with Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodríguez. On the downside, he struggled more as the season went on which represents some risk in projecting him for 2024. I believe Carroll can hit another 25 home runs and steal 40 or more bases, but the ratios could be volatile until he finds a path to making good swing decisions more consistently. To be clear, though, Carroll is an elite talent, and I do see why early drafters have taken him so high.

11. Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SDP) – Playing in 141 games after missing all of 2022 was a meaningful step towards bucking the injury-prone label we’ve been forced to use with Tatis, and that was the biggest concern I had. Tatis didn’t show us consistent power in 2023 nor did he make strong decisions, but let’s not forget that he was coming off a season where he didn’t play and is going into his age-25 season. The power and speed still look excellent based on Statcast data (even if they weren’t quite what we saw in 2020 and 2021), and there’s top-five upside in Tatis based on what he’s shown us in flashes so far in his career. The loss of Soto could impact his counting stats, though Tatis found plenty of runs scored and RBI back in 2021 so I’m not factoring that too much into this ranking.

12. Matt Olson (1B, ATL) – We knew Olson had power, but my goodness. Olson hit at least seven home runs every single month and did damage in just about every scenario against just about every type of pitcher all while maintaining a career-best walk rate and a solid strikeout rate. In most cases where we see big upticks in home runs, it’s something like an elevated fly ball rate or an increased pull rate, yet Olson’s fly ball rate was no different than usual and his pull rate was the lowest of his career. How did he do it? It’s shockingly simple, really—he just hit the ball harder. He did make better decisions too—especially at the end of the season—but he seemed to find another gear in terms of raw power. There are some potentially compelling explanations in the human side of the game, such as leaving the meaningless baseball wasteland of Oakland for the thriving competitive pastures of Atlanta, but all that matters is that we’ve recalibrated what “ceiling” means for Matt Olson and it’s “top-three overall hitter”.

13. Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) – Talent isn’t the issue here—his career-to-date 162-game average is 43 home runs, 109 runs scored, 128 RBI, and a .295/.390/.588 line. Even with no stolen bases, that’s a Tier 1 player. The issue, of course, is that 162 games is a tall order for a guy with two bum knees. Alvarez managed just 114 games in 2023, though he still managed to hit 31 home runs and drive in 97 runners. You might move him slightly down your board if you took Judge in the first round (yes, you should consider adjusting your board even after your very first pick as you’re no longer “in a vacuum”), or if you’re in a deeper format like the NFBC where the replacement level is very low, but in shallower standard formats you needn’t hesitate to scoop up this husky slugger.

14. Bryce Harper (1B, PHI) – Arguably, moving strictly to first base improves Harper’s value, as first base is not nearly as deep as outfield in standard formats—especially those requiring just three in the outfield. Harper missed time early in the season (though not as much as we thought he might) due to elbow surgery in the offseason, and it rather predictably led to a bit of a slow start in terms of power. As he continued to get further from his surgery date, Harper’s power began to return and by the end of the season, he was back to normal, as you can see in the rolling chart below. Durability will continue to be a concern until he strings together a few healthy seasons again, but when healthy, Harper is still one of the best run producers in baseball.

Tier 3

15. Corey Seager (SS, TEX) – A return to a batting average north of .300 and once again clearing the 30 home run mark was no surprise, but the fact that Seager did it in just 119 games was quite eye-opening. Injuries have always been a factor with Seager as he’s played in just 66% of his team’s games since the start of the 2018 season (which is roughly 107 games in a 162-game season). In a 140-game season, I’d look for Seager to hit 35-40 home runs with high ratios and 200 or more combined runs and RBI. In fact, on a per-game basis, Seager was the fourth-best fantasy hitter among players with at least 250 plate appearances behind Acuna, Ohtani, and Carroll. Assuming you can work around the potential missed time and the lack of steals, there’s a lot to like here with Seager.

16. Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL) – Being a fixture near the top of the lineup for Atlanta is a pretty sweet gig for fantasy. Hitting behind Acuña means there are tons of runs to drive in (and you only need to hit a single to get him in) and hitting in front of Olson means getting on base gives you a good chance to score a run. Throw in 30 home run power, double-digit stolen bases, and a position that’s light on elite talent, and you’ve got yourself a top-20 player. The batting average might be a bit up and down from year to year, but it won’t ever hurt you, making him well worth a second or third-round pick.

17. José Ramírez (3B, CLE) – Oddly, Statcast felt that Ramírez was a better hitter with significantly more power in 2023 than he was in 2022 despite the downturn in home runs. We didn’t see anything from J-Ram in 2023 that we didn’t expect—as many walks as he had strikeouts, plus power, nearly 30 stolen bases, and excellent ratios. I think there are more home runs in here based on the history and Statcast data and the counting stats should improve by dumb luck and some better health in Cleveland, so I’m expecting better numbers in 2024 than he did in 2023.

18. Austin Riley (3B, ATL) – I had no idea Riley had 20 more runs scored in 2023 than he had RBI—an extremely unusual split for a number-three hitter who hits behind players like Albies and Acuña. Expect that to change (not that it matters too much for his overall value), but for the 35+ home run power and excellent batting average to continue. I suppose there’s a 45 home run ceiling if everything pans out just right and he starts selling out for pull power, but honestly, I’d prefer Riley just be the Riley we’ve seen for three consecutive seasons.

19. Rafael Devers (3B, BOS) – It’s difficult to separate Riley and Devers from a pure talent perspective—both have 35 home run power and both will hit somewhere around .280-.290—but I give the edge to Riley for being on a much better team. I guess in an OBP league I might flip them around since Devers takes more walks and should outpace Riley by about 10-15 points, but I’m only bringing it up to have another sentence in this blurb.

20. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, TOR) – It was a very disappointing season for Vladito as he failed to reach 30 home runs, 80 runs scored, or 95 RBI along with a lower-than-expected .264 batting average. Oddly, the Statcast data suggests he made better contact in 2023 than he did in 2022 despite the dip in actual production. Guerrero should bounce back from the rough campaign, though the further we get from his 2021 breakout, the more we have to question what to reasonably expect from a full season. He should put up numbers that are equal to (or better than) guys like Riley or Devers, but until he does it a second time, we have to have a bit of caution.

21. Pete Alonso (1B, NYM) – Alonso’s summer slump truly tanked his batting average, but the Polar Bear’s power was left unscathed as he blasted 46 home runs and drove in 118 runners. While that .217 batting average is certainly ugly, it’s not as though Alonso was striking out at unreasonable rates or popping out more than usual. I have a hard time finding anything that fully explains why the batting average took such a nosedive, which for a player with a track record like Alonso, means I am mostly disregarding it for 2024.

22. Trea Turner (SS, PHI) – It’s so hard to know what to do with a guy who just salvaged their entire season and reversed a consistent downward trend in a span of just over 30 games. In the 34 games between August 5 and September 12, Turner slashed .385/.429/.830 with 16 home runs (27 total XBH), six steals, and 74 combined runs and RBI. Roughly 40% of his counting stats and extra-base hits come in that single period. In the 108 games prior, Turner was hitting .236/.289/.367 with just 10 home runs and 95 combined runs and RBI, and in the 14 games after, he had no home runs, nine combined runs and RBI, and slashed .222/.300/.296. He showed us that he’s still capable of incredible production, sure, but I’m still very cautious after watching Turner be so awful for 122 games and feel there’s a lot of risk here.

23. Marcus Semien (2B, TEX) – Semien has at least 700 plate appearances in every season since 2018 (except for 2020, of course) and set a career-high with 753 in 2023. We don’t always talk about plate appearances this way in fantasy, but it’s an incredibly important stat because it was 60 more plate appearances than any other second baseman in the league and 90 more than the fifth-place guy (Albies). To put that in perspective, most guys who hit between second and fourth in the order will get you around 30 plate appearances in any given week, maybe 35 if they have a lot of high-scoring games and no days off. That means Semien got an extra two weeks’ worth of stats thanks to his durability and place at the top of a strong lineup. This is especially valuable in points formats, where Semien’s contact ability combined with his volume give him an incredibly high floor. He likely won’t give us anything close to his magical 45 home run season in 2021, but with what amounts to two extra weeks of plate appearances, Semien should accumulate his way into 27-29 home runs and over 200 combined runs and RBI.

24. Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM) – Lindor gave us his first 30-30 season in 2023, which is about six years later than I thought he’d do it. Despite the Mets underperforming last season, Lindor managed to pile up home runs, steals, and counting stats while playing through injury (he had a procedure on his elbow early in the offseason and should be back for Spring Training). Lindor may not be the flashiest pick out there, but the floor is quite high due to his durability, power, and ability to steal bases in the new stolen base environment. It’s also worth noting that our own Carson Picard did a bit of a career breakdown on Lindor and it’s a testament to just how good Lindor has been in his career.

Tier 4

25. Elly De La Cruz (3B/SS, CIN) – De La Cruz is undoubtedly one of the most electrifying athletes in the game, possessing 25+ home run power and 50 stolen base speed, but the 21-year-old infielder has some growing to do in the decision-making department. It might surprise you to know that Elly is actually good at making contact—our PLV contact metrics show that he makes contact more often than we’d expect on a pitch-by-pitch basis when he swings. The primary issue for Elly is that he swings far too often at pitches that no one can do anything with. The exciting part is that we saw Elly start to make this adjustment during the season, and even though the stats didn’t follow (he faded at the end of the season), the fact that his process was dramatically improving makes me very interested in jumping on board with Elly if the price is even remotely reasonable.

26. Michael Harris II (OF, ATL) – Harris II rebounded nicely after the famously slow start to the season. It was so bad that I nearly dropped him off my top 150, though I’m glad I thought better of it as he put up yet another batting average over .290 with almost 20 home runs and exactly 20 stolen bases. It was good to see Harris finally get out of the nine-hole and start hitting closer to the middle of the lineup, which should have an immensely positive impact on his so-far lackluster counting stat totals, and the sub-20% strikeout rate is a credit to his excellent hand-eye coordination and contact ability. Harris is highly unlikely to start taking many walks, but his quick bat and athleticism give him 25-25 upside with a high batting average and improved counting stats.

27. Adolis García (OF, TEX) – The power is very real and I expect his 27 home runs from 2022 to be a true floor for 2024, though the lack of steals from García in 2023 is a bit of a bummer considering the improved stolen bases across the league. This downturn is likely a combination of factors—he’s slowing down physically (he’s dropped from 93rd percentile speed when he debuted in 2018 to 49th percentile speed in 2023 according to Statcast), he had a new manager that isn’t known for being overly aggressive (steals were down for multiple Rangers in 2023), and also he now has a significantly improved lineup ahead of him with the additions of Seager and Semien. I’m not expecting most of those missing steals to return as each of these factors is likely to continue in 2024, but García’s raw power and strong supporting cast (that should get even better as Carter and Jung develop) should make the floor high enough to keep him among the top 30 hitters with a ceiling that’s inside the top 20.

28. Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CWS) – We finally got the full season we’ve been hoping for, and the power and speed did not disappoint as he put up 68 combined home runs and stolen bases. No one should be questioning LuBob’s upside, but there’s plenty of room to question the floor. The strikeout rate rolling chart is one that deeply concerns me as it suggests this new elevated strikeout rate may be here to stay, and it is very difficult to find consistency with a strikeout rate that hovers around 29%—especially when a guy already deals with volatility and health issues. By talent, Robert should be in Tier 3, but the number of red and yellow flags means he’s best for team builds that already have some stability at the top.

29. Bo Bichette (SS, TOR) – A second straight season of reduced steals (25 in 2021, 13 in 2022, and just five in 2023) puts the overall upside in question, to be sure, and you have to wonder what he could look like if he started pulling the ball more and/or putting the ball in the air more consistently. The ratios are excellent and should remain excellent, but there has to be more than 25 home runs if the stolen base stoppage continues. This ranking is because I do believe that there’s a path towards more, either with more steals or more home runs, and the floor is so high that I couldn’t justify dropping him further.

30. Randy Arozarena (OF, TBR) – We’ve got a pretty good sense of what Arozarena is at this stage of his career—a 20-home run, 20-stolen base guy who should have a decent batting average and plenty of counting stats by the end of the season, though the journey will be rough at times due to his volatile swing-decision tendencies. It’s well worth weathering the storms when they pop up, and I’m curious whether the downturns will be more manageable thanks to an improved walk rate he showed in 2023.

Tier 5

31. Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) – I’m not ready to say that injuries are a huge issue for Altuve, though he’s heading into his age-34 season and is coming off the most missed games in his career. On the bright side, Atluve gave us 17 home runs and 14 steals in just 90 games with a .311 batting average, which is a 30 home run, 25 stolen base pace over 162 games, and a 26 home run, 21 stolen base pace over a more realistic 140 games. The Astros should continue to be a highly competitive team in 2024, and as long as Altuve is in the lineup, he should contribute to all five categories.

32. Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) – Injuries are impossible to ignore when talking about Royce Lewis’s career. He missed all of 2020 and 2021 with injuries and appeared between the majors and minors in just 118 games over the last two seasons. The production has been outstanding when Lewis has been on the field since his return to the field in 2022, and the charts below are good signs of how he’s adapting to the majors. That said, his small major league sample size and extensive injury history make Lewis an extreme risk-reward play. The charts are INCREDIBLY promising, though. I mean, look at these beauties.

33. Manny Machado (3B, SDP) – A down year for Machado is 30 home runs, 91 RBI, and a .258 batting average, it seems. The highly dependable third baseman has been a strong contributor at third base for nine consecutive seasons, and it’s hard to imagine Machado not doing it again in 2024. There are some questions about how much talent will be around him during the season with Soto being traded and Tatis having a worrisome injury history plus a bit of a downturn in performance. Even if the Padres aren’t a high-powered offense in 2024, Machado has shown he can produce in just about any environment. He’s not getting younger, but he should be a high-floor option who bats in the heart of the order on a team that, at worst, should still be pretty decent at the top half of the order.

34. Oneil Cruz (SS, PIT) – Injuries robbed us of a Oneil Cruz breakout in 2023, but all of the pieces are there for 2024 to be the year. While the power hadn’t shown itself in that nine-game sample last season, the high walk rate and low strikeout rate were a continuation of the trends we saw at the end of 2022. Cruz is a player with 30-30 upside, and if he can show that he’s capable of even average decision-making, the 6’7″ shortstop could be a top-20 hitter as soon as this year. As we discussed in one of the panels for PitchCon, there’s a good chance the price on Cruz shoots up in the spring when the statcast data makes its rounds, and folks remember that this guy can hit the ball 120 miles an hour. This is an aggressive ranking, perhaps, but I think more and more will start to see the light when he’s back on the field.

35. Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS, BAL) – It was rough for two full months as Henderson hit just .201/.332/.370 with a 31% strikeout rate through the end of May with many questioning whether he’d be a bust for 2023. The script flipped quickly, though, as he slashed .278/.323/.538 over the remainder of the season with 23 home runs, 72 runs scored, 68 RBI, and eight steals with a dramatically reduced 23.3% strikeout rate. Making that adjustment—which oddly enough came from being intentionally more aggressive—was critical, and hopefully, he can continue to balance his aggression with making contact.

I’m curious about whether they’ll keep Henderson at the top of the order or if they’ll ever let Mullins sneak back into that role, but regardless Henderson should have a prime spot in a lineup that surprised in 2023 and should get even stronger in 2024.

36. Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI) – Two seasons in Philly, two straight seasons of setting career highs in home runs (46 in 2022, 47 in 2023). It comes with a .200 batting average, unfortunately, but he’s second in home runs, seventh in runs scored, and ninth in RBI in all of baseball since the start of 2022. If you’re intentionally punting batting average or are in an OBP league, you could argue he’s in Tier 4.

37. Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT) –While I hoped that there’d be a bit more of a ceiling for Reynolds, he’s now put up three straight seasons of 24 or more home runs and has finished 14th, 24th, and 20th in the outfield in those campaigns. Counting stats are tougher to come by for Reynolds than other similar outfielders already on this list due to the fact he plays for the Pirates, but the floor is so high that it’s not too tough for me to squeeze Reynolds into my top 40.

38. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (OF, MIA) – If healthy, Jazz could be a 30-30 type of player and could also give us improved counting stats if the Marlins continue to find good pieces for their lineup. Of course, health has been quite fleeting for the shortstop-turned-outfielder as he’s missed 205 games over the last three seasons. In addition, Jazz has a troubling 29.2% career strikeout rate and hasn’t given us any signs that it will change. The upside is indisputable, but the floor is incredibly low.

39. Mike Trout (OF, LAA) – He’s still Mike Trout, folks. Yes, he’s missed a lot of time over the past three seasons and wasn’t exactly a picture of health before then either, but his 134 wRC+ over 82 games in 2023 was the lowest single-season mark he’s posted in the big leagues since his 40-game campaign in 2011 (his rookie season). Being 34% better than average is bad for Mike Trout. Let that sink in. If I already had steals wrapped up with earlier picks, I might consider moving Trout up over guys like Jazz and Hoerner.

40. Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) – Yelich appears to have figured out his chronic back issues after years of struggling and it led to his best season since 2019 as he hit 19 home runs, scored 106 runs, and swiped 28 bags with a .278 batting average and .370 OBP. The stolen bases might come down just a bit due to the aging curve, but another season with close to 20 home runs and 25 stolen bases is certainly in the cards, and the healthier back should help keep those ratios up a little higher than years past as well.

Tier 6

41. Nico Hoerner (2B/SS, CHC) – Those in deeper formats should probably move Hoerner up within this tier as stolen bases have a higher premium in those leagues, but even in shallow leagues, you are welcome to get excited about his 43 stolen bases in 2023. Fifteen is probably the hard ceiling for home runs for the slap-hitting middle infielder, but the excellent contact ability and the ever-present green light should allow Hoerner to come close to matching his 2023 stat line in 2024.

42. Paul Goldschmidt (1B, STL) – The plate discipline is still there and Goldschmidt should still be locked into the heart of the Cardinals order, but age may finally be catching up to the 36-year-old after posting his lowest 162-game season home run total since 2016. I think there’s a good chance to clear 25 home runs in another full season (Goldy hasn’t missed more than 11 games in a season since 2014), but we should probably recalibrate our expectations for batting average and stolen bases as he posted a 27th percentile speed according to Statcast. I don’t think he’ll be a dud in the ratio department, but it isn’t easy to hit .300 when you start to slow down physically.

43. Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) – Rutschman finished as the second-best fantasy catcher in 2023 thanks to his positive contributions across the board (except for stolen bases, but he’s a catcher so that doesn’t count). He’ll be just 26 years old at the start of 2024 and Rutschman has already proven he has elite plate discipline and contact ability. His rolling chart for contact ability (below) shows that every single 200-swing sample we have for Adley was in the 90th percentile or better, which is a truly remarkable accomplishment for a backstop in his first full season in the majors.

Rutschman can’t challenge Smith or Contreras in the power department, but thanks to Rutschman’s everyday presence in the lineup (he had 76 more plate appearances than any other catcher in 2023), he has the highest floor at the position and more than enough upside to lead all catchers in every fantasy stat except for home runs and stolen bases.

44. Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) – Bregman’s 2023 closely resembled his 2023 in just about every way, and I expect 2024 to be yet another re-run (not that it’s a bad thing). 20-25 home runs, 180-200 combined runs and RBI, and a .260/.365/.450ish line can be penciled in now and probably gone over in ink by next September.

45. Christian Walker (1B, ARI) – Make it back-to-back seasons with over 30 home runs and finishing inside the top 35 hitters for Walker, who should continue to see a boost in counting stats thanks to Arizona’s rise to relevance. The Diamondbacks may not have the deepest lineup out there, but Carroll and Marte should get on base often enough to give Walker a good chance to get to 100 RBI again to go along with his 30 home run floor. The second straight season of a sub-20% strikeout rate also means that his batting average should be more neutral than it is negative.

46. Will Smith (C, LAD) – Smith has finished among the top three catchers for three consecutive seasons thanks to his plus power and prime spot within the potent Dodger lineup. Thanks to three very consistent seasons, Smith is an easy player to project on the back of a napkin—22-25 home runs, 70-80 runs scored, 75-85 RBI, and a .260 batting average. That easily makes Smith a top-three catcher again, and while I think Adley has a higher floor because of the 20 to 30 extra points of batting average, you could argue Smith’s extra handful of home runs is more valuable to your team by this point in the draft.

47. Nolan Arenado (3B, STL) – For the first time in his career, Nolan Arenado played over 135 games and failed to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runners in a single season. That’s the kind of career he’s had to date. Heading into his age-33 season, I can’t necessarily project a return to 30 home runs in 2024, but if the Cardinals can be at all better than they were in 2023 (and by all accounts, they should be), the counting stats and power should be more than enough to return to the top-50 or 60 hitters (he finished 71st in 2023).

48. Nolan Jones (1B/OF, COL) – Jones was quite good for most of his 2023 debut (besides July), but he turned it on in September, posting a 16.4% walk rate, 21.1% strikeout rate, and a .349/.461/.651 line with seven home runs and 46 combined runs and RBI. The 21.1% strikeout rate is what stands out to me in this line, as Jones’s power was a known commodity from his prospect days, and landing in Colorado made it even more likely that his power would play to some degree. If Jones can take a step forward in his decision-making against breaking balls, we could see a new gear to his game that looks more like his September line, but I’m guessing we don’t get quite that good of a result. I’m thinking something like 25 home runs, another 20 stolen bases, and a volatile (but not necessarily bad) batting average with good-not-great counting stats on a bad Rockies offense.

49. Gleyber Torres (2B, NYY) – It’s difficult to foresee exactly where in the lineup the Yankees will put their most dependable player of 2023 with the addition of Soto, but the improved offense around him should mean that his counting stats will improve to at least some degree in 2024. I wouldn’t count on many more home runs (25) or stolen bases (13) this season, but if he brings the impressive improvement to his plate discipline back in 2024, it should keep those ratios high and give way to a significant boost to his runs scored and RBI.

50. Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC) – Swanson hit more ground balls than usual in 2023 and it led to slightly lackluster numbers in home runs and batting average, but he remained a dependable player who can accumulate counting stats due to his durability and place in the lineup. It’s hard to say what the Cubs lineup will look like on opening day due to the number of players they’ve been attached to this offseason, but he should stay somewhere in the top six spots and that’s all Dansby needs to get another 160-170 combined runs and RBI along with 20-25 home runs and close to 10 stolen bases.

51. Yandy Díaz (1B, TBR) – The 22 home runs were cool, but the elevated fly ball rate Díaz showed early in 2023 was an apparition, meaning those 22 reflect Díaz’s ceiling more than his baseline or floor. He should continue to score 90 or more runs and hit .300 or better at the top of the Rays lineup, though, so while a return to the top 30 hitters is a bit of a stretch, being in or around the top 50 hitters is quite feasible, and Yandy’s floor is exceptionally high thanks to his plate discipline and contact ability.

52. Josh Naylor (1B, CLE) – A drop in strikeout rate and groundball rate helped unlock more of Naylor’s potential, particularly when it comes to batting average. Runs may continue to be hard to come by with the extreme lack of depth in Cleveland (though the development of Bo Naylor and Manzardo could alleviate this to some extent), but 90-100 RBI should be in reach hitting fourth for this top-heavy lineup. Those counting stats plus about 20 home runs and a .285 or better batting average would be a nice addition to any fantasy squad.

53. Xander Bogaerts (SS, SDP) – Bogaerts rebounded nicely from his awkward 2022 with 19 home runs and 19 stolen bases in his first season with the Friars while maintaining strong ratios. I expect Bogaerts to lead off in San Diego following the Soto news, which means he may struggle to clear 60 RBI, but on the bright side, he should score 85 or more runs in front of Tatis and Machado despite the loss of Soto.

Tier 7

54. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, FA) – It was a second breakout for Bellinger in 2023 as he set career bests in strikeout rate, batting average, and stolen bases while putting up his most productive season since 2019. These dramatic turnarounds are hard enough to process on their own, but when they come with a career-worst barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, it’s nearly impossible. I can’t ignore the actual results, but the concerning underlying numbers leave me quite skeptical that Bellinger can repeat without actually changing what he is as a hitter—something we aren’t asking anyone else in the top 40 to do.

55. Josh Lowe (OF, TBR) – Lowe started hot, got very cold, and then was hot again, which makes projecting for him a frustrating endeavor. I think the 20 home runs seem about right based on his minor league track record and scouting grades, and the Rays are so aggressive on the base path that 32 stolen bases are certainly attainable. The strikeout rate is the number to watch, as the prolonged slump for Lowe was closely tied to strikeout issues over the summer. Lowe was never a good decision-maker at any point in 2023, but he did manage to improve his ability to make contact against lefties towards the end of the season and also against breaking pitches (see below), and if that continues then we can expect another strong season. If he regresses with the contact against breakers, though, it could be a bumpy ride with a low floor.

56. J.T. Realmuto (C, PHI) – It wasn’t a bad season for Realmuto by any means—he did steal 16 bases and hit 20 home runs—but for the first time in what feels like forever, he finished outside the top five catchers in 2023. The rise of several young catchers combined with a bit of a down year in terms of batting average and contact led to his lowest full-season RBI total since 2016 (63) were the most likely culprits, and while I do think the batting average and/or strikeout rate can rebound a bit, it’s hard to see him find his way back to the top of the catcher class. As a fun fact, the last primary catcher not named J.T. Realmuto to steal at least 10 bases was Yadi Molina in 2012.

57. Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) – Marte rebounded in a big way in basically every category we use for fantasy and now finds himself batting near the top of the order for a team that actually can score runs. 25 home runs is probably the high end of what to expect in 2024, but the 94 runs scored and 82 RBI from 2023 shouldn’t be much different from his 2024 totals. Slap a .275 or better batting average and a .350 or better OBP on it, and you’ve got a solid second baseman.

58. Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET) – The ratios continue to lag, but the power was on display in 2023 as Torkelson hit 31 home runs with 27 of those dingers coming on or after June 4th (106 games, which is a 41 home run pace over 162 games). Tork’s high flyball rate will likely keep his average from being more than neutral in spacious Comerica Park, but with this kind of power, he just needs to hit closer to .250 to unlock his fantasy potential. Some additional help around him would be nice, such as a healthy Greene and a free agent or two, as it would boost his counting stat potential. I love looking at this rolling chart of his power—it takes a special player to add more than double the number of expected extra bases for almost 100 batted balls.

59. Triston Casas (1B, BOS) – Casas hit his stride in the second half, hitting 15 home runs while slashing .317/414/.617 with just a 23.7% strikeout rate. There’s 30+ home run power with Casas, and he was a strong decision-maker for all of 2023. If Casas can keep the Red Sox comfortable enough to start him against lefties, he should get enough plate appearances to get to 30 home runs and 90 RBI, but his extremely passive ways and his swing-and-miss issues against lefties present just enough of a risk that he falls a bit short. For what it’s worth, I think most folks will prefer Casas to Torkelson (especially in OBP leagues, where Casas is clearly the superior choice).

60. Josh Jung (3B, TEX) – An injury interrupted an excellent rookie season for Jung, but he turned it around in time for the playoffs and looked every bit like the exciting power hitter we hoped for. The strikeout rate remains high due to his aggression at the plate, especially against breaking balls that escalated as the season went on (see below). The injury risk (he’s missed significant time in each of the last two seasons) and the exploitable swing aggression keep me from pushing up higher, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he approaches the top 30 on the Hitter List within a few weeks of play.

Tier 8

61. William Contreras (C, MIL) – Seeing the strikeout rate drop to 20.6% in 2023 was a good sign, as the 29.3% and 27.7% he posted in 2021 and 2022 were big red flags that indicated there might be a low floor. Contreras only hit 19 home runs in his 141 games after hitting 28 in his 149 games across 2021 and 2022, and that’s largely due to his extreme ground ball tendencies as his 55.0% groundball rate was the third highest in the league among qualified hitters. There’s 25 home run power here if he can bring that number below 50%, if not more, and the Brewers seem committed to playing him every day. I think some will place Contreras at the top of their catcher rankings or projections based on the upside, and I wouldn’t blame you for it. These top catchers are tough to separate.

62. Anthony Santander (OF, BAL) – Santander is unlikely to surprise us in 2024, but the improved Baltimore offense means his 30 home runs and .250 batting average should come with close to 100 RBI. He won’t steal many bases, but his floor and ceiling are pretty close together, making Santander an excellent choice for those who have already taken a few gambles on offense.

63. CJ Abrams (SS, WAS) – For some reason, it took three full months before Washington realized that Abrams could steal bases and should maybe lead off for the Nationals. He stole just nine bags through the end of June, but after being promoted to the leadoff role in early July, he stole 16 bases that month, then 13 in August, and then nine more in September. Abrams has always been excellent at making contact, and in 2023 we finally saw some improvements in his decision-making ability. Abrams’ quick bat and aggression will always keep him from being an elite decision-maker by our metrics, but as long as he continues to make 90th-percentile contact, there’s a path toward 20 home runs and 50 stolen bases. The ratios will stink because he pops out a fair bit and tries to put too many balls in play, but his mix of power and speed will push him up a lot of boards as folks hope that the big spike in steal attempts sticks around.

By the way, this ranking is for his head-to-head categories value, which is highly variable based on your specific need for steals. He’s inside the top 50 in roto leagues as the volatility of steals has less of an impact.

64. Nick Castellanos (OF, PHI) – The strikeout rate went up fairly significantly (27.6%), continuing a trend that’s been going on for the last few seasons, but the production returned after Castellanos’s deeply disappointing 2022. There were ups and downs in 2023 (like May and July) that will make the floor a little bit scary, but the power is still there and he’ll continue to play every day for the Phillies so strong counting stats and 25 or more home runs should be there even if the batting average takes a tumble due to the strikeouts and inconsistency.

65. Nathaniel Lowe (1B, TEX) – The home runs and ratios went back to their 2021 levels, but on the plus side, so did the walk rate. Lowe should keep batting in the heart of the Texas lineup and get plenty of runs scored and RBI to go with 17-20 home runs and a .265 batting average. Those in OBP and points formats can probably move him up to the bottom of the previous tier due to the walks. It may not be exciting, but the steady and solid production Lowe provides should be more than enough to finish inside the top 80 hitters as he did in 2023, even without the big power we saw in 2022.

66. Matt McLain (2B/SS, CIN) – McLain won’t repeat his .290 batting average without a lot of batted ball luck (he’s not the type of hitter who can hit almost 25% line drives like he did in 2023), but there’s a good enough power and speed combo to give McLain a shot at 20-25 home runs and 15-20 steals for the Reds along with above-average counting stats. The decision-making and contact ability were progressing in the wrong direction, which raises some alarm bells, but to me that gets offset by the strong debut last season, at least to some degree. It’s also why I’m much lower on him than his current NFBC ADP.

67. Teoscar Hernández (OF, LAD) – It was a bumpy ride at times, but the free-swinging Hernández hit his way into a solid season in Seattle that saw him finish as a top 25 fantasy outfielder and top 60 fantasy hitter. Teoscar’s aggressive approach leaves him incredibly prone to hot and cold streaks, and those streaks defined his 2023 for me as he repeatedly oscillated between being a must-start and a must-sit sort of player.

Landing in Los Angeles with the Dodgers is an improvement in virtually every way—Dodger Stadium is extremely friendly to right-handed power (126 home run factor is tied with Great American Ballpark for the highest in baseball), and even though he’ll hit considerably lower in the order than he did in Seattle, Teoscar should have no issue getting to yet another 90 RBI season. Batting seventh makes it hard to score a bunch of runs, but we saw guys like Rosario and Ozuna bat in the bottom half of the order for much of the season and they showed it’s possible to get to 75 runs down there given enough playing time in a bombastic offense.

68. Jorge Soler (OF, FA) – It was Soler’s best season since the rabbit-ball era of 2019 thanks to good health, a career-high fly ball rate, a significantly reduced pop-up rate, and one of the best season-long strikeout rates of his career. Soler continues to hit the ball exceptionally hard on a very consistent basis, so he’s certain to find a team that wants him to play every day.

The keys to Soler’s 2024 will likely be team context (ballpark, supporting cast, etc.) and whether he can stay healthy after missing huge chunks of time in multiple prior seasons. If Soler wasn’t heading into his age-32 season with a long injury history, I’d likely have Soler at least one or two tiers higher than this. He could also jump if he signs with a powerful offense (like the Dodgers).

69. Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) –Nimmo finished just inside the top 70 hitters last season thanks to a significant power boost tied to an elevated fly ball rate and also a career-high in plate appearances. He hit the ball harder as well, raising his average exit velocity by over two ticks. There’s still some risk on the injury front as Nimmo enters his age-31 season having missed significant time in 2017, 2019, and 2021, but if you believe the almost one-to-one ground ball to fly ball rate will stick in 2024, then Nimmo should be moved up a tier. I’m a bit skeptical about that, but not so skeptical that I’m uninterested in Nimmo in 12-team leagues.

70. George Springer (OF, TOR) – Springer just put up his first ever 20-20 season at age 33, and while durability and age are negative factors to his value, he did put up a second consecutive season with at least 133 games and has at least 20 home runs in each of his last seven full seasons (even his injury-shortened 78-game season in 2021). Springer will be on top of a Blue Jays lineup that disappointed in 2023 and should rebound in 2024. 25 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a .250-.260 batting average feel like a good baseline if he plays a full season, despite his advanced age.

71. Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) – Suzuki is now two-for-two in slow starts and strong finishes here in the US, and in each case, we have at least a somewhat compelling reason for the slow start (adapting to the US in 2022, and coming back from injury in 2023). A Suzuki that doesn’t start poorly and stays healthy could probably hit 25 home runs, steal 10 bases, and slash .280/.360/.485, and I’m willing to buy into that upside at least one more time.

72. Luis Arraez (2B, MIA) – Arraez is at his best in points leagues where you get credit for all of those singles even if they don’t drive anyone in, but 80 runs scored and 60-70 RBI with a batting average that can be anywhere from .310 to .350 has value even when it comes with no speed and only 10 home runs. Arraez isn’t a fit for every team build, though. For example, if you’ve already drafted three or four hitters who are likely to hit .280 or better, Arraez’s impact to your bottom line may not quite be worth a pick in this range. If you instead took a few guys who either will or could tank your batting average (De La Cruz or Schwarber come to mind), Arraez can move the needle significantly due to the number of plate appearances he should get every week and the fact that he’s the odds-on favorite to win the NL batting title.

73. Willson Contreras (C, STL) – After a rocky start in St. Louis, Contreras hit 20 home runs and chipped in over 120 combined runs and RBI for the fourth time in as many 162-game seasons. I see no reason Contreras can’t do that again, and that kind of floor is extremely rare at catcher.

Tier 9

74. Marcell Ozuna (UT, ATL) – Ozuna set career highs in home runs and RBI while also raising his batting average by over 50 points from 2021 and 2022. It’s an extreme change after looking like he was toast for two seasons, and it’s not easy to explain using pure statistics. Ozuna’s health has been an issue in recent years, but the upside of a healthy and slugging Ozuna in Atlanta’s lineup is hard to ignore.

75. Andrés Giménez (2B, CLE) – Like many Guardians, Giménez got off to a slow start in 2023, particularly in the power department as he hit just three home runs in his first 61 games along with way too many grounders and pop-ups. Following that skid, things did pick up as Giménez hit 12 home runs and stole 23 bases over the remaining 92 games, which would have been a 20 home run, 40 stolen pace over 162 games.

I don’t buy into Giménez hitting 20 home runs with any regularity, but 15 is a reasonable baseline, and 30-40 steals in the current environment are also repeatable thanks to his aggressive manager. There also should be improved counting stats in 2024 as he cements his role as the number two hitter in front of Ramirez and Naylor, and that will help him return more value in 2024.

I realize I’ve used 162-game averages a few times so far in this article, but please don’t mistake that as a way to project a player. Instead, it is a way to put smaller samples into an easy-to-compare context to highlight just how good or bad the sample would have looked over a full season.

76. Yainer Diaz (C, HOU) – With the manager already declaring Diaz as the head backstop heading into 2024, Diaz has the potential to finish as a top-five catcher thanks to his blend of hit tool, power, and opportunity. It wouldn’t take much for Diaz to hit within the top five spots in the order for the Astros (Roster Resource has him sixth, with Abreu in front of him), and even if he only plays in 110-120 games, Diaz could approach 25 home runs and 75 RBI. Diaz’s quality of contact data from Statcast supports the high batting average we saw. This combination of talent and situation has me placing Diaz in a tier of his own at catcher and as my clear number five.

77. Salvador Perez (C/1B, KCR) – Perez is a two-category catcher at this phase of his career as he provides home runs and RBI with extreme reliability as he tries not to hurt you in runs scored and batting average. His 22-25 home runs and 70-80 RBI are about as bankable as they come if he plays at least 120 games, though at some point we have to wonder when the extreme mileage on Sal’s tires start to impact his ability. His barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity were down from his 2021-2022 numbers, but they were still in line with numbers from before that stretch so I don’t think we should be concerned yet.

78. Bryson Stott (2B, PHI) – The spray-hitting second baseman broke out in a big way in 2023 by hitting 15 home runs and stealing 31 bases with a high batting average for the Phillies. He finished as the 60th-best hitter for fantasy purposes in standard leagues, though I’m not sure he can be quite so successful in 2024. The 15 home runs seem about right, but the 31 stolen bases are more than he had in his entire career up until 2023. The new rules give players a boost, but this was a little extreme. I’m envisioning something closer to 20 steals (which is still a big jump from his previous single-season record of 14). Put that together with good ratios (.270 average with a .325 OBP, perhaps?), and you have a hitter who is definitely in the top 100 and has a shot at approaching the top 50.

79. Lane Thomas (OF, WAS) – Thomas exceeded my expectations for him in just about every category, and in the case of home runs and steals, he did it by almost double. While his quality of contact did improve to a degree and he did start pulling the ball significantly more, it doesn’t explain the improved numbers. If it did, our Pitcher List expected stats (which take into account batted ball direction) would show something better than a .237 xAVG and .446 xSLG. While I do think a 20-20 season is within reach and accept that none of his numbers seem especially dubious, I’m still a bit skeptical that Lane Thomas can wind up in the top-50 hitters. Top 60 or top 75 should be doable, though, and his floor should keep him from falling out of the top 100 (which is not true for many hitters in the tier below).

80. Riley Greene (OF, DET) – Greene’s injury, which forced him to miss more than a month of action, could not have come at a worse time as he was absolutely on fire at the time, hitting .365/.435/.573 last May before going down. Greene’s power and speed aren’t overwhelming for fantasy, but I still believe he can get to 20 home runs and double-digit steals with an excellent batting average if he stays healthy with the upside to do even more.

81. Jake Burger (3B, MIA) – Many have probably noticed that Burger’s strikeout rate was markedly better after moving to Miami, but as the rolling chart below shows, he started making this change well before the trade. Burger’s floor is very much tied to how often he can make contact when he swings due to his immense power, and if the strikeout rate improvement sticks, then this ranking will turn out to be far too low. There’s reason to believe he can hold on to it though, as he showed exceptional decision-making skills against breakers and improved against fastballs as the season went on. If he can keep making good decisions against the breaking balls and be even average against fastballs, he could be a force.

82. Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL) – After signing an 8-year $82 million contract, Chourio is all but guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster. Chourio ranks as one of the game’s top prospects and has an incredibly high fantasy ceiling. This past season, he hit 22 home runs and stole 44 bases between Double-A and Triple-A. He showed noticeable improvements to his contact skills helping ease some of the worries for his transition to the Major Leagues. He projects as a 24/45 player at his ceiling and could easily post 15 home runs with 30+ stolen bases this year.

Here is what Martin concluded in our composite article from November:

“Chourio is a no-brainer elite prospect. His power/speed blend is virtually unmatched and he’s just 19.”

83. Evan Carter (OF, TEX) – After breaking out during the 2022 season, Carter continued his impressive offensive performance in 2023. Standing at 6’4”, Carter packs plenty of raw power in his swing which is aided by his elite plate discipline. Carter made his Major League debut on September 8 and produced some massive swings helping the Rangers capture their first World Series title. He is not going to post a 180 wRC+ again, but he should be a reliable contributor for both the Rangers and dynasty managers in 2024.

Carter was excluded from our composite article in November due to already having made his Major League debut. However, Matt Heckman wrote a piece on hitters with small samples in December that you can check out here.

84. Max Muncy (3B, LAD) – 2023 was the first time Muncy drove in over 100 runners, and his 36 home runs tied a career high he had set in 2021. The batting average will always stink and his OBP is more neutral than it is positive these days, but another year as the primary third baseman for the Dodgers gives Muncy a top 50 upside. Being 33 years old and never having played in more than 144 games in a season is a bit of a bummer, as is losing the first and second base eligibility he’s had in years past. That said, the replacement level in standard leagues should make covering the 20-30 games he misses a breeze.

85. Willy Adames (SS, MIL) – Home runs and counting stats shouldn’t be an issue for Adames as 2023 proved that his glove will keep him in the lineup even during the ugliest of slumps. This was the second consecutive season, though, in which Adames was poison to your batting average and OBP, and also his hard hit rate took a noticeable dive to 36.1%. He’d been in the mid-40s as a Brewer from 2021 to 2022, and unless Adames can hit the ball with authority more consistently, he could get buried in the lineup again. That would cap his counting stat ceiling significantly and make it even harder to stomach the .220 to .230 batting average we have to expect from Adames in 2024. All that being said, guys in this range who can hit 30 home runs and have 170 combined runs and RBI are not easy to come by.

86. Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, TBR) – I have been on board for quite some time due to the hit tool and the way the Rays have used that skill and turned it into home runs. Despite the lower batting average, Paredes remains a guy who is excellent at making contact, and as long as he has an everyday role, I’m all in on another 28-30 home run season for Paredes and another 90+ RBI. I also believe he can repeat the .250 batting average due to his ability to avoid strikeouts and his willingness to take a walk rather than chase bad pitches.

Paredes happens to be an example of how expected stats can be misleading for players with specific skill sets. Baseball Savant’s expected batting average does not take batted ball direction into account because it is often fluky and year-to-year pull rates are not usually that sticky. That said, some players do make specific, intentional changes to their batted ball profile (like Paredes has), and it allows them to overperform those expected stats quite significantly.

87. Jarren Duran (BOS, OF) – The trade of Verdugo makes Duran the obvious pick to lead off for Boston, a role he excelled in last season as he hit .319/.350/.547 with 25 runs scored and 23 extra-base hits while going 12 for 13 in stolen base attempts over just 36 games. Injuries and inconsistency threw his train off the tracks at times, but a healthy Duran is more than capable of hitting 15 home runs and stealing 30 bases in 2024. He’s missed time with injury in two of the last three seasons and had two particularly brutal cold stretches in May and August, but Duran is more than worth taking a chance on in the middle rounds of a draft.

Tier 10

88. Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KCR) – Injuries cut his 2023 far too short, but with Pasquantino’s excellent plate discipline creating a high long-term floor for his ratios, the only question is how much power he can find in the major leagues. He has 19 home runs so far in his 133-game major league career, and while he did hit 28 home runs across triple-A and the majors in 2022, I think asking for more than 22-25 is asking for too much from Vinnie P, especially if the trend in the chart below continues. Assuming he returns to being a plus decision-maker, Vinnie P should be a high-floor, moderate-ceiling first baseman, which sets him apart from Torkelson and Casas who have higher ceilings thanks to their power but much lower floors due to their contact issues.

89. Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B/SS, SDP) – Another player who exceeded all reasonable expectations in 2023, Kim wound up at the top of the order and slapped his way into 17 home runs, 38 steals, and 84 runs scored. The stolen base upside is pulling him up these rankings, and his strong plate discipline should help Kim recreate something close to his .351 OBP from 2023. I’m not sure Kim can flirt with 40 steals again, but even if he only gets 30, he should be well worth this price.

The trade of Soto may have a weird effect on Kim as it will open up the top of the lineup. The Padres could move Kim to the number one or two spot as his contact-oriented approach is ideal for those roles, but San Diego is so right-handed heavy at this moment that they could also choose to use Cronenworth in that role and move Kim to fifth or sixth. Kim’s skillset is best for fantasy when he’s batting first or second, though hitting lower isn’t a bad thing for his RBI totals and he should get plenty of opportunities to run in either situation.

90. Ian Happ (OF, CHC) – Happ gets a boost in OBP leagues thanks to his double-digit walk rates, but even in standard leagues his 20-22 home runs and 12-15 steals should make an impact, especially since they come with over 80 runs and 80 RBI as long as he’s healthy and the Cubs can look anything like the 2023 version of themselves. Happ is mostly just an accumulator who provides everything except batting average, and if you’re in a deeper league or are at a place in your draft where you need a safety net in the outfield, Happ is your guy.

91. Rhys Hoskins (1B, MIL) – The 30-year-old slugger missed all of 2023 with a knee injury but Milwaukee was still surprisingly quick to scoop him up to be their primary first baseman. We know a healthy Hoskins is capable of 30 home runs with a .245 batting average, but injuries have now been major issues in two of the last three seasons. If he looks healthy in Spring Training, expect Hoskins to jump up significantly in these rankings, but until then, the health risk will hold him back.

92. Spencer Steer (1B/3B/OF, CIN) – Steer’s first full season in the big leagues went far better than anyone could have expected, with 23 home runs, 15 steals, and 160 combined runs and RBI with a .271/.356/.464 line. His average tailed off towards the end of the season, in part because pitchers started to challenge him less with hittable pitches (particularly breaking balls), but Steer responded well by showing he could make contact with the more difficult pitches.

I’d be surprised if Steer repeated his 15 stolen bases as he never stole more than eight in a single season in the minor leagues (eight to 10 is a better starting point), but Steer shouldn’t have an issue clearing 20 home runs again with strong counting stats and his hit tool is good enough to post above-average ratios.

93. Alec Bohm (1B/3B, PHI) – 2023 is probably the peak of what Bohm can be: 20 home runs, 97 RBI, and a .274/.327/.437 line. At one point in time, Bohm was considered a power prospect who could hit 25-30 home runs, but his time in the majors has seen him shift into being a contact-oriented hitter with a subpar barrel rate and a low fly ball rate. He finished inside the top 75 hitters thanks to the boosted RBI, and if Turner, Harper, and Castellanos can look like they did in the second half of 2023 he could flirt with 100 RBI again. That said, Bohm’s limited power (especially against right-handed pitching) makes such a high total tough to reach and makes him more of a high-floor player than anything else.

94. Thairo Estrada (2B/SS, SFG) – Despite missing over 40 games in 2023, Estrada managed to hit just as many home runs and steal a few more bases than he did in 2022 while also hitting for a better average. Estrada should again find himself at or near the top of the Giants lineup, but as it currently stands, the Giants offense will not create many run-scoring opportunities. 15 home runs and 25 steals could be there, but the counting stat totals aren’t going to be pretty unless the Giants make significant changes to the lineup and Estrada’s health risk exacerbates the counting stat issue even more.

95. Masataka Yoshida (OF, BOS) – Yoshida’s season probably felt worse than it was to those who rostered him due to the complete collapse of his power in August and September. He hit just two home runs over his final 33 games, and part of his descent was likely related to his increased aggression and worsening decision-making as the season wore on. On the plus side, while his contact ability faded it stayed safely above average and that tool plus some lessons learned over the offseason could lead Yoshida to 20 home runs, double-digit steals, and a batting average that flirts with .300. If it doesn’t, the floor should be high enough to keep him near or around the top-100 hitters unless the bottom completely falls out.

96. Cedric Mullins (OF, BAL) – With Henderson usurping the leadoff role from Mullins, the range of outcomes for the speedy outfielder is now much wider than in years past. Mullins finished well outside the top 100 hitters in 2023 thanks to a poor batting average, injuries, and then being forced into a platoon to end the season.

Mullins will get another shot at full-time plate appearances in 2024, though it will likely be lower in the order than in 2021 and 2022 (maybe sixth or so) and the leash will be short due to the up-and-coming outfield talent Baltimore has in the minor leagues. If Mullins can solidify his role in the lineup, there should be a path to 20 home runs and 30-35 steals that would put him inside the top 50. If he isn’t able to get into a groove, though, there’s the risk that he will post yet another finish outside the top 100, and possibly even outside the top 150.

97. MJ Melendez (C/OF, KCR) – Melendez finally turned it on towards the end of the season, hitting .286 with eight home runs over his last 44 games. Counting stats won’t be easy to come by in Kansas City, but there’s enough raw power in his bat that Melendez could get to 20 or more home runs in his everyday role and score 80 runs. The batting average won’t be better than .240, but in leagues where he’s still eligible at catcher, there’s plenty of value. As just an outfielder, Melendez falls at least 20-30 spots.

98. TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) – It was a breakout campaign for Friedl as he was able to stay healthy and with the big league club for a (mostly) full season’s worth of plate appearances. Friedl dramatically outperformed his expected stats in 2023, beating his Baseball Savant xwOBA by 63 points and his Pitcher List xwOBA (which includes batted ball direction) by 57 points with most of the difference coming in his power numbers. That kind of overperformance makes me doubtful that Friedl can replicate his 2023 performance in any category besides runs scored (as he projects to lead off for the Reds).

A more realistic baseline would probably be 15 home runs, 80-90 runs scored, and 20-22 steals, with a significant drop in ratios that are more likely to resemble the .240/.314/.436 he posted in 2022, which is far more inline with what his expected stats have shown at the major league level.

99. Eloy Jiménez (OF, CWS) – Health continues to evade Eloy as he played in just 120 games in 2023. From a talent perspective, he should be a .280+ hitter who hits 30 home runs and drives in 90 runners regularly, but the sheer number of injuries he’s suffered over the last three seasons makes that kind of projection much harder to imagine. Jiménez’s upside keeps him in my preseason top 100, but I’d need to feel pretty good about my power and consistency in the outfield to consider drafting him where he’ll likely be going.

100. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT) – Health has been an issue for Hayes in each of the last three seasons, but it was great to see Hayes hit those 15 home runs in 124 games as it was more than he’d hit in the 232 games he played in 2021 and 2022. His aggressive approach will likely keep his OBP low, but the growth in Hayes’s power was real, and if he can have some better luck on the health side, we could see a 20-20 season. Sure, it’ll be on a bad Pirates offense that caps his counting stat totals, but it’s still pretty exciting.

101. Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, CHC) – Morel is still without a regular position due to his subpar defensive skills, but his raw power suggests he could hit 30 or more home runs in a season if he managed to make contact on a more consistent basis. Morel’s strikeout woes are well-documented, though, and his decision-making skills declined as the season went on (see below). The low contact ability means Morel needs to make good decisions at all times, and until he can pull that off, he’ll remain an extremely volatile player.

102. Anthony Volpe (SS, NYY) – The fact Volpe played 159 games and knocked 21 home runs with 24 steals made his 2023 a success even if it fell short of the lofty expectations of prospect chasers. Expect Volpe to improve on his counting stats and ratios in his second full season with an improved supporting cast, and if he can dig his way out of the bottom of the order, he could become a top-50 hitter before you know it. There is, of course, the risk that the strikeouts don’t come down and he continues to post subpar ratios that force the Yankees to bury him in the lineup, but that would be lame and not fun so I’m trying not to think about it.

103. Jordan Walker (OF, STL) – The highly-hyped prospect didn’t have the debut we hoped for, but to be fair, a 116 wRC+ as a 21-year-old is nothing to sneeze at. A demotion to the minors in May and summer slump were disappointing (and not entirely his fault), but it was good to see Walker rebound late in the season, slashing .302/.376/.497 from August 9 to the end of the season that very importantly included almost as many fly balls as grounders. I was encouraged by that growth because it’s the secret to unlocking his power potential, and also by the fact that Walker was not at all phased by major league breaking balls—a very common issue that you’ll hear me talk about throughout these rankings. 2024 could very well be the breakout year for Walker.

104. Lars Nootbaar (OF, STL) – Injuries once again limited Nootbaar to fewer than 120 games in the big leagues, but he still managed to show the power, speed, and on-base skills that caught our attention in 2022. Nootbaar looks like a good fit for the top third of the lineup, and if he can seize that opportunity, we could be looking at 23-25 home runs, 150-160 combined runs and RBI, 13-15 steals, and solid ratios. Those are all dependent on health and lineup position, though, and Nootbaar has yet to show consistency with either, but the upside is very real.

105. Zack Gelof (2B, OAK) – I was quite harsh on Gelof during the regular season due to his weird swing, his poor zone contact numbers, and his inflated line drive rates. While Gelof did improve his zone contact to an extent as the season went on, my lack of faith in players who miss more than 20% of the pitches they swing at in the zone remains as steadfast as ever.

Gelof’s mechanics aren’t enough to prove to me that he can sustain a line drive rate close to 30% as he had for most of the season in 2023, but I do admit the power is legitimate and the A’s will play him near the top of the order every single day. 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases are very much in play for Gelof (and 25 home runs wouldn’t shock me either), but the strikeout rate and luck regression will likely bring that batting average closer to .230.

Tier 11

106. Kerry Carpenter (OF, DET) – Carpenter is a power-first outfielder who could hit 30 home runs in a full season, though his vulnerability to left-handed pitching makes him a platoon risk. I think the batting average will be around .260 and he’ll get plenty of counting stats when in the lineup, so all that’s left is for him to start in 140 or more games to exceed this ranking.

107. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF, ARI) – If you read the Hitter List over the last two seasons, then you know that I struggle to know what to do with Gurriel. The dizzying highs and terrifying lows we get from him throughout a season make Gurriel a player you can’t merely plug into your lineup and forget about, and the ups and downs don’t correlate with standard splits (like righty/lefty or home/away).

Gurriel enters 2024 as a free agent, and while he certainly could hit 20-25 home runs with a .270 average (this would be a high-end projection for sure), his wide range of outcomes has me pushing him down my list unless he lands in an ideal situation somehow.

108. Ezequiel Tovar (SS, COL) – It was great to see Tovar get a chance to play the full season as the primary shortstop for the Rockies, even if it came with lackluster results. While I desperately wish I had a rolling chart to show you that indicates growth or improvement, I wasn’t able to find anything of the sort. Growth doesn’t always happen on the field, though, and the one-time top-50 prospect has a good enough hit tool to hit .280 in the big leagues while throwing in 17-19 home runs and close to 15 steals along with whatever counting stats are available in Colorado, but until we start seeing actual signs on the field, it’s hard to call him anything more than an upside play

109. Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B, CIN) – Candelario could not have asked to be dropped into a better position as he’ll be hitting in the middle of the order for the up-and-coming Reds with a secure, everyday role. He may not repeat the eight steals he had in 2023, but look for Candelario to match or beat his home run, runs scored, and RBI totals in Cincinnati and push for a finish inside the top-100 hitters. His ceiling and floor probably aren’t that far apart, but it’s of high enough quality that we don’t mind the lack of explosive upside.

110. Chas McCormick (OF, HOU) –McCormick was another player I was very skeptical of last season due to his poor zone contact rate and his inflated line drive rates around the middle of the season, but to his credit, McCormick continued to produce (albeit to a lesser extent) when the line drive rate started to return to normal, hitting nine home runs and stealing eight bases over his last 50 games.

McCormick truly shines against lefties, posting a 177 wRC+ against them in 2023 and a 163 wRC+ against them over his career while being merely average against right-handed hitting. That weakness to righties caps McCormick’s upside a bit, but his strong defense and 2023 breakout should help him eclipse 120 games played for the first time in his big league career while giving him a path to a 20-20 season. The batting average is a question mark and any prolonged slump could lead to a platoon, but as long as he’s in the lineup the power and speed should be there.

111. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B, CIN) – The young slugger still has a lot of work to do on his decision-making, but the raw power started to shine towards the end of the season. Decision-making is a much more “learnable” skill than contact ability or power, so hopefully an offseason and more time with the big league club will get Encarnacion-Strand where he needs to be to unlock his peak 35+ home run power. Playing time is a huge issue due to the very crowded infield (especially at the corners) in Cincinnati, so for now CES remains a lottery ticket.

112. Sean Murphy (C, ATL) – It was a tale of two halves for Murphy, who posted a .999 OPS with 17 home runs and 97 combined runs and RBI in the first half only to suddenly start riding the pine three to four days a week (which started in June) and struggled to the tune of a .585 OPS and just four home runs and 33 combined runs and RBI in the second half. It was a truly baffling collapse for him, as his strong defense behind the plate would normally have him starting most days. That timing suggests that maybe the hamstring issue that popped up in June impacted him throughout the season, but we have yet to be given any concrete information about why his role changed so suddenly. That lack of insight makes me extremely worried about relying on him in 2024, but the upside from the first half necessitates that I rank him in the top 150.

113. Cal Raleigh (C, SEA) – It’s safe to expect that Raleigh will hit home runs with a low batting average once again in 2024, and the fact that Seattle also lets him DH when he’s not behind the plate means that he’ll get more plate appearances than the usual catcher as well. Raleigh can be streaky due to his power-only approach, but as long as you have the patience to ride out the bad times, he makes for a solid fantasy catcher.

114. Noelvi Marte (3B, CIN) – Marte flashed speed and a bit of power in his brief 2023 debut and he should have a clear path to being the everyday third baseman for the Reds in 2024. Marte was considered a top 20 prospect as recently as 2022, and his pedigree reinforces the notion that he could put up something close to a 20-20 season with above-average ratios. Marte has only played 74 games above Double-A which makes any projection risky, but if you need an upside play at the hot corner, Marte makes for an intriguing pick.

115. Edouard Julien (2B, MIN) – In his very first exposure to the majors and being only 24 years old, Julien showed he is and will likely continue to be among the best decision-makers in the league (see below) and can punish fastballs.

This is an excellent starting point to launch a successful 2024 season, though it’s worth noting that there are weaknesses in how he performs in both contact and power against breakers and offspeed pitches. That particular weakness isn’t unique to Julien, though, as many young players struggle to adjust against how well major league pitchers can use these weapons compared to minor leaguers. I believe there’s room for Julien to learn how to deal with these pitches, and it could lead to 20 home runs with 90+ runs scored if he can stay at the top of the Twins’ lineup.

116. J.D. Martinez (UT, FA) – J.D. found his power again last season for the Dodgers, hitting 33 home runs in just 113 games and driving in 103 runners. He’d deserve a higher ranking than this if we knew he’d be heading back to LA, but he’s definitely not headed back there and there’s plenty of uncertainty on his landing spot, so we have to hedge our bets a bit for now.

117. Trevor Story (2B, BOS) – I remain pretty low on Story, unfortunately, as he’s simply been unable to find any health or consistency since moving to Boston. Strikeouts continue to plague him as he’s maintained a strikeout rate of over 30% since joining the Red Sox, and while injuries may be partially to blame, I expect health will remain an issue going forward.

This ranking respects that a healthy Story could certainly hit 20 home runs and steal 25 bases in 140 games or so, but that version of Story has been fleeting of late. It’s a big-time risk-reward pick that could work out very well, but I wouldn’t make this bet unless I also intended to take a second player with second-base eligibility. For what it’s worth, this ranking would be considerably lower in draft-and-hold formats and other deeper leagues, but the replacement level in standard leagues is high enough that it can’t hurt you that much if it’s a swing and a miss.

Tier 12

118. Jeremy Peña (SS, HOU) – Peña’s 2023 was an improvement in some areas, such as plate discipline and OBP, but it came with a huge downturn in power thanks to a much higher groundball rate that he was not useful for fantasy. If Peña can get back to 20 home runs to go with his improvements at the plate and his 13-15 stolen bases, he could be a very steady contributor in the middle infield. If he once again barely manages double-digit home runs, he’s not worth rostering in 12-teamers. The one thing Peña has going for him, though, is that his glove will keep him in the lineup every day, meaning he’ll have every opportunity to find a way back to his 2022 self.

119. Nolan Gorman (2B/3B, STL) – The 27 home runs in 119 games isn’t that surprising for those who followed Gorman as a prospect, and neither is the 32.3% strikeout rate he’s shown in 208 career games in the majors. Gorman’s extreme contact issues make him a wildly volatile player in both real life and fantasy, especially since he’s not especially good at making contact even when he’s not chasing pitches. The Cardinals weren’t afraid to bench him against lefties and shuffle their lineup around to cover for it, and I do expect that to continue until Gorman adjusts.

120. Andrew Vaughn (1B, CWS) – Vaughn has increased his home run, runs scored, and RBI totals in each of his three major league seasons, but that’s about where the good news ends for those who have waited for Vaughn to justify his former standing as a top 20 prospect.

Vaughn is quite good at making contact and has slightly above-average power, but his rising aggression in 2023 led to lots of bad swing decisions, especially in two-strike counts. Unless he can find a way to make good decisions on a more consistent basis, the Vaughn we’ve seen in 2022 and 2023 is probably the Vaughn we’re going to continue to get. I’m holding out hope that there’s one more level to his game, but if we don’t see it in 2024, I’ll finally be ready to completely move on.

121. Taylor Ward (OF, LAA) – The decision-making went from average to incredible in 2023, and Ward showcased a strong ability to make contact with flashes of above-average power. Injuries and inconsistency foiled him for a second consecutive season, but like Vaughn, I’m willing to get back on the saddle one more time to see if we can get a .275 average with 25 home runs along with 160 combined runs and RBI. I think the ceiling is as good or better than Vaughn’s, but I also admit that the floor is lower.

122. Jorge Polanco (2B/3B, SEA) – Polanco kept the double-digit walk rate from 2023 (though it came with an elevated strikeout rate) and also slugged an impressive 14 home runs in just 80 games, but it was a second straight season where injuries kept him out for a large chunk of the season. Polanco has 25 home run upside with decent ratios and counting stats as the presumed cleanup hitter in Seattle, but the biggest question mark is whether he can stay healthy enough to make an impact.

123. Ryan Mountcastle (1B, BAL) – Injuries shortened his 2023 season, but Mountcastle did show good signs when he was active. His 18 home runs over 115 games would equate to about 25 over a full season, and the improved lineup around him provided a boost to his counting stats compared to 2022. There’s a chance that the Orioles push Mountcastle to the bottom third of the lineup or platoon him when he’s slumping due to his inability to effectively field any position and the fact he’s a righty, which caps his ceiling quite a bit, but the 23-25 home run upside with 75-80 RBI and a .270 average is worth chasing as a late corner infielder in standard formats.

124. Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) – Few players can boast the bat-to-ball skills that Kwan has, but he’s struggled to make a big fantasy impact with that hit tool. Kwan has just 11 home runs across two full seasons, and this number is unlikely to improve based on what we’ve seen.

The skills are there to give Kwan a ceiling that includes a .300 average, 100 runs scored, and 30 stolen bases, but when you have the lowest hard-hit rate and the third-worst barrel rate in baseball, your path to fantasy relevance requires a lot of things to go your way. Kwan finished 2023 outside the top-100 hitters, and if the Guardians’ offense flounders again or if Kwan continues to be capped at 20 steals by his manager, or if he has rough batted ball luck, or if he loses his hold on the leadoff spot, it could happen again. In points leagues or deep formats that value the high number of plate appearances, Kwan should be moved up multiple tiers.

125. Keibert Ruiz (C, WAS) – 2023 was a breakout for Ruiz, and due to his strong hit tool, it could very well be the expectation going forward. The 18 home runs are probably close to the top of what I’d project for him, but the .260 batting average has room to improve thanks to Ruiz possessing one of the best contact abilities in the league that persists across all pitch types. The power is the primary thing to be suspicious of, as he doesn’t make very much hard contact nor does he barrel the ball very often, but Ruiz’s ability to put the ball in play consistently creates a very high floor that should keep him as a set-and-forget catcher in virtually all formats. In points leagues, you can even lift him a tier as he rarely strikes out and should continue to play a lot of games in Washington.

126. Brandon Drury (1B/2B, LAA) – So much for a power regression, eh? Drury only played in 125 games in 2023, but still managed to hit 26 home runs for the Angels as a follow-up to the 28 he hit back in 2022. I’m inclined to believe that the Drury we saw in 2022 and 2023 is the one we will get in 2024, and that means a .260 batting average, 25-27 home runs, and 150 combined runs and RBI over a full season.

Of course, Drury isn’t known for playing full seasons as he’s never played in 140 games in a season since going pro in 2010. He missed significant time in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, so projecting more than 120 games is a big risk to take. That said, in shallow leagues, he remains an excellent back-end infielder who can provide power and RBI while batting in the heart of the order for a bad team.

127. Carlos Correa (SS, MIN) – Believe it or not, this was the fourth consecutive season that Correa appeared in over 80% of his team’s games, though unlike the two previous campaigns, it was not considered a success. Correa fell flat in almost every category, and one explanation could be the plantar fasciitis he battled throughout the season. Assuming Correa finds a way to manage the condition over the offseason (it doesn’t require surgery), he could certainly recapture his 2021 or 2022 form and put up 22-25 home runs with solid counting stats and a .280 or better batting average. The floor is particularly low for the former first-overall pick, but there’s enough ceiling here that someone should probably draft him in your league.

128. Jack Suwinski (OF, PIT) – Suwinski has issues with zone contact (which you may have noticed is a red flag for me), but a combination of power, speed, and playing time still led to 26 home runs and 13 steals for the 25-year-old southpaw. Suwinski is much better suited to OBP leagues where his high walk rate can make his ratios more than acceptable, but in standard leagues, you shouldn’t expect more than a .220 average with subpar counting stats as part of a dismal Pirates lineup.

129. Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) – Alvarez has the upside to be, well, Cal Raleigh but with a better batting average, but unlike Raleigh, he doesn’t currently have the luxury of being the DH when he’s not catching. If Alvarez can find some consistency in 2023, we could see him get those DH plate appearances, but until then, he’s an upside power-hitting catcher.

130. Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK) – NFBC players will take Ruiz a lot earlier than this due to the fact he’s almost certain to lead the AL in stolen bases after swiping 67 bags in 2023, but keep in mind that Ruiz fell short of 50 runs scored and 50 RBI and that the .254 batting average and .309 OBP are just about as good as it’s going to get due to his aggressive approach and complete lack of power. He will steal a boatload of bases and not hurt your ratios that much, which is not super valuable in head-to-head categories formats, but those in roto leagues will probably have him in a tier or two above this.

131. Daulton Varsho (OF, TOR) – It was a disappointing first season in Toronto as he fell short of expectations in almost every category. A big part of the explanation is the 19% pop-up rate, the second-worst mark in the league and almost double the rate he posted in 2022. Our PLV metrics indicate he was incredibly aggressive against fastballs to start the season, though it improved as the season went on which is also reflected in his decision value against those fastballs (though it’s worth noting that his pop-up rate was worse at the end of the season, so decision-making against fastballs didn’t cause that specific problem).

Varsho should be a 20-20 outfielder in Toronto and his counting stats should improve naturally by rebounds from Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, though the batting average will stay in the basement unless he makes better decisions against fastballs and/or cuts down on the pop-ups.

Tier 13

132. Starling Marte (OF, NYM) – Injuries loom large for Marte as he enters his age-35 season but in just 86 games he managed to steal 24 bases in the new environment for the Mets. I’d advise against projecting Marte for more than 110-120 games, but the upside even in that short time could be 10-15 home runs and over 30 steals. That kind of upside is hard to come by at this stage, and in shallow leagues, it makes Marte worth scooping up near the end of the draft.

133. Logan O’Hoppe (C, LAA) – O’Hoppe should be the primary catcher for the Angels, though injuries took him out for most of 2023. While he was healthy, though, O’Hoppe clobbered 14 home runs in just 51 games and while that pace isn’t sustainable, 110 games could give way to 22-25 home runs with a .250 average, and in 130 games (which is all the rage among catchers these days), there’s an outside chance at 30.

134. Jonathan India (2B, CIN) – At the time of writing, Jonathan India still projects to be an everyday player for the Reds between second base and DH (with most of his time spent doing the latter), and in that role, there’s plenty of upside for India to hit over 20 home runs while stealing 15 or more bases. India has fallen short of 120 games for two straight seasons after his breakout rookie year, and the missed time has turned into waves of inconsistency. Heading into his age-27 season, India has an opportunity to once again be a part of the future of the Reds, but there’s considerable injury risk as well as an uncertain role that makes him a challenging player to rely on as we head into 2024.

135. Josh Bell (1B, MIA) – It may not always be pretty, but Bell once again found a way to drive in more than 70 runners and hit more than 20 home runs between his time with the Guardians and Marlins, with his best stretches coming with the latter. Bell will once again be a Marlin, and if he can recreate the 37.2% fly ball rate (which is about as high as it gets for Bell), we should see another 20+ home run season with improved counting stats. There’s also a chance he goes back to hitting grounders and becomes waiver material, but the 23-25 home run, 80 RBI upside with good ratios is worth gambling on as a late corner infielder.

136. Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI) – Lawlar third on this list over Holliday? Matt Heckman has been one of the biggest advocates for Lawlar and 14 major league games will not change his mind. Lawlar’s home run per fly ball numbers have been impressive throughout his professional career and there is 40+ stolen base potential here. He should usurp Geraldo Perdomo as the everyday shortstop early on in 2024 (possibly as early as Opening Day) and be a reliable fantasy asset for managers this season.

Here is what Matt concluded about Lawlar in the composite article:

“The speed and power combination possessed by Lawlar is exciting. The upside in his profile is huge and there is no reason to overreact to a small major league sample size. He will have a fantasy impact in 2024 and should be on your radars during draft season.”

137. Alex Verdugo (OF, NYY) – Verdugo was exceptionally average last season as he saw his batting average fall to a middling .264 after five straight seasons hitting at least .280, but a move to the Bronx and a presumably better lineup should hopefully squeeze more juice out of the contact-oriented outfielder. Additionally, if LeMahieu struggles at all in the leadoff spot, Verdugo would probably be the next man up to take that role in front of Judge and Soto, and it wouldn’t be hard to imagine Verdugo piling up a ton of runs scored in that role.

138. Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI) – Moreno found his stride in the second half last season, hitting .313/.383/.511. This improved line correlates to improvements in both his contact ability and his decision-making, which align with the skills we saw in him as a prospect.

Moreno is unlikely to hit 15 home runs in a season, but his batting average should be north of .280 and the counting stats will be quite good for a catcher (think 120-130 combined runs and RBI). Moreno also has some sneaky speed and should chip in six to eight steals too, if you’re into that sort of thing.

139. Jackson Holliday (SS, BAL) – Holliday’s quick ascent through the minor leagues has been impressive. With the potential to be a generational talent, Holliday is on the cusp of making his major league debut. With a strong spring, he could find himself as the team’s Opening Day shortstop. There is also a chance the team opts to give Holliday some more time to develop in Triple-A considering he does not turn 21 until next December. There is five-category potential in Holiday’s bat although we have yet to see his raw power fully translate to game power.

Here is what Martin concluded in our composite write-up:

“The Orioles are so loaded with young talent and Holliday is the cream of the crop. The team has already stated Holliday will compete in spring training to make the Opening Day roster. Personally, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Holliday will not only make the Opening Day roster, but he’s a heavy favorite for AL Rookie of the Year.”

140. Justin Turner (1B/2B/3B, TOR) – It was a great season on all accounts for the now-39-year-old Turner and he heads to the Blue Jays after setting career highs in runs scored and RBI. It’s hard to imagine there’s a lot of tread left on these tires, but Turner should get as much run as his body can handle in Toronto.

Tier 14

141. Byron Buxton (UT, MIN) – 2017 stands alone as the sole season where Buxton played at least 100 major league games as he found his way into just 85 of them in 2023 before hitting the IL. The Twins still expect him to be their starting centerfielder, and we saw enough to still project Buxton for 30 home runs if he somehow plays in 140 games and could also steal 15 bases. We also saw enough to know that Buxton’s ratios are probably going to stay low due to his extreme flyball tendencies, but if you want to pick up a lottery ticket, Buxton still fits the bill.

142. Colt Keith (3B, DET) – Keith became the second prospect this off-season to receive a multi-year contract prior to making his major league debut. The contract all but assures us that Keith will open as the Tigers’ everyday second baseman. Keith’s profile should translate well to the major leagues as he combines plus power with strong plate discipline to form a solid all-around approach. He is not going to be very useful in the stolen base category, but he figures to be a reliable four-category contributor batting in the middle of Detroit’s lineup.

Here is what Steve concluded from our composite article:

“Keith has risen to a top prospect in baseball since being drafted and has done it with his ability to hit the baseball. Keith should get a chance to play every day at the hot corner in Detroit starting on opening day in 2024.”

143. Tyler O’Neill (OF, BOS) – Another year, another rash of injuries and poor performance from O’Neill despite possessing plus power and speed. O’Neill enters 2024 as hyped as he’s ever been now that he’s been traded to a Red Sox team that doesn’t have any significant threat to his playing time (other than O’Neill’s own body). Fenway could be a boon to O’Neill’s power numbers as it provides an even greater incentive to pull the ball. Additionally, the chart below shows growth in his decision-making that could help him keep that double-digit walk rate and lowered strikeout rate in 2024. The extreme injury risk and erratic performance in the last few seasons make it hard to rank him higher, but if you want potential, there’s evidence there to support its existence.

As a caveat, those in deeper formats who can’t easily replace an outfielder should move O’Neill down your list by at least one or two tiers, if not more. This ranking only works in standard 12-teamers because whiffing on an outfielder at this stage of the draft doesn’t do any long-term damage.

144. Matt Chapman (3B, FA) – Chapman’s hard-hit rate in 2023 was the best of his career (by a pretty wide margin) despite putting up 10 fewer home runs than he had in each of the last two seasons. Part of the issue may have been luck, as Chapman’s 39 doubles were 12 more than he hit in 2022 and 24 more than he had in 2021, and he also didn’t pull the ball as much as he did in 2022. 25-30 home runs are possible for Chapman no matter where his free agency takes him, but his strikeouts, streakiness, and low batting average will frustrate even the most patient fantasy managers.

145. Jonah Heim (C, TEX) – Heim was not the same hitter after hitting the IL in late July, hitting just .202/.268/.333 in 41 regular season games. That injury and following slump allowed Garver to steal Heim’s spot in the lineup, and as it stands now, it’s hard to see Heim climbing back to the top two-thirds of the order. 20 home runs is a reasonable expectation due to the volume we should expect for Heim in 2024, but the ratios, which historically were putrid, are hard to project. If he finds his first-half form, this is a top-five catcher, but the .214/.275/.374 line from his pre-2023 career would make Heim a very difficult catcher to roster for a full season.

146. Matt Wallner (OF, MIN) – Wallner has a difficult path to a full-time role due to the nature of the Twins roster and his weakness to left-handed pitching, but there’s no doubting his raw power after he hit 14 home runs in 76 games. Keep Wallner in the back of your mind, especially in OBP formats, when you need power at the end of a deep draft or during the season when perusing the wire, but even if Wallner is healthy for all of 2024, it’s unlikely he gets to 120 games played while in a strict platoon.

147. Jeff McNeil (2B/OF, NYM) – McNeil is essentially Arraez-lite. He puts a ton of balls in play, rarely strikes out, and scores runs. He doesn’t do those things quite as well as Arraez, but McNeil does them consistently. McNeil is slightly more likely to get to double-digit home runs and steals, but 10 is pretty close to the cap for him in both categories.

148. Vaughn Grissom (SS, BOS) – If you’re looking for a high-floor, low-ceiling middle infielder who should get to 12-15 home runs and stolen bases with a decent batting average and low counting stats, Grissom is your guy! You don’t often see a player with just 64 games major league games with such tight projections, but Grissom’s high-contact, low-to-medium power approach near the bottom of a not-so-great lineup provides an uncomplicated projection based on players we’ve seen before who are like him. For Grissom to break into the top 100 hitters, we’d need to see him keep the ground ball rate at or below 45% (something he did in the minors) and that line drive rate would need to be above 20% (another thing he did in the minors). That combination was the secret to his success in Triple-A, where he hit 36 doubles with a .330 batting average. You can bump Grissom up a tier or so in most points leagues due to his contact-oriented approach.

149. Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF, STL) – I was not at all in on Tommy Edman in 2023 due to his move to the bottom of the order and his historical performance in that spot, and while Edman has a clear starting role and is coming off a third straight season with at least 27 home runs, I’m still not overly excited about the other assets Edman brings to the table. Edman finished as the 130th best hitter last season according to the FanGraphs auction calculator with stolen bases being the only category where he didn’t provide negative value. I don’t see much reason to suspect anything to improve much in 2023, which makes Edman better suited to deeper roto leagues than anything else for the speed.

Tier 15

150. Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, SDP) – Cronenworth could find his way back to the heart of the order with Soto now in New York, and hitting between some combination of Bogaerts, Machado, and Tatis is a good way to drive in 80 runners and score 80 runs. The batting average will likely be .240 or worse and he’s not likely to exceed 15 home runs, but Cronenworth should play enough to accumulate counting stats and be a high-floor, low-ceiling option for those in deeper formats.

151. Jarred Kelenic (OF, ATL) –A surprise trade lands Kelenic in Atlanta, a team who just got more out of Olson, Ozuna, and Rosario than I ever thought possible at this point, so it’s safe to say things are looking up for the maligned outfielder. Kelenic never found his groove with the Mariners in the majors due to strikeout issues, but he continued to rake every time he went back to Triple-A. At his prospect peak, Kelenic was viewed as a perennial 20-20 threat who could also hit for average. Atlanta is likely to start Kelenic in a platoon due to their crowded roster and Kelenic’s spotty history against southpaws, but if you want to throw a high-upside dart later in the draft, Kelenic’s upside is as high as anyone’s.

152. J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) – Crawford’s 19 home runs were more than he had in the prior three seasons combined (covering 358 games) and the most compelling narrative relates to changes he made over the offseason with Driveline. Crawford did manage to get the ball in the air more and did pull the ball more in 2023 than in any other season as a Mariner, and the elevated walk rate helped him score 94 runs. Crawford should be the primary leadoff man again in 2024, and even if the power takes a bit of a step back, the floor is extremely high thanks to his ability to make contact and take walks. This isn’t a big upside play, but he’s easily the safest bet in this entire tier.

153. Eugenio Suárez (3B, ARI) – Suárez is no longer the lock for 30 home runs he was from 2018-2022, but assuming the D-Backs intend to deploy Suárez in the middle of their lineup, then he should still drive in 80-90 runners even if the home run total is closer to 20 than it is to 30 despite the ugly batting average.

154. Max Kepler (OF, MIN) – Kepler is tough to appreciate in 12-teamers as he lives right around the replacement level most of the time, but his second half in 2023 certainly caught my attention as he put up a .926 OPS with a .306 batting average. Kepler has been unable to handle left-handed pitching for most of his career, though.

155. Tommy Pham (OF, FA) – The veteran outfielder is coming off his most productive season since 2023 as he looks to find work with what could be his fifth team in three seasons. It’s difficult to pinpoint specific reasons for his improved stat line other than the new stolen base environment, and it’s not easy to think of a team that’s going to be willing to give a 36-year-old free agent a chance to bat cleanup like they did in Arizona last season, but Pham could work his way to 15 home runs and 15 steals if given an everyday opportunity.

156. Bryan De La Cruz (OF, MIA) – De La Cruz was a boring yet reliable back-end outfielder last season, finishing just inside the top 50 at the position thanks to his 78 RBI and high volume. If De La Cruz can stay in the top five or six spots in the order, we should see something like a repeat of his 2023 line, though the counting stats may take a step back as he’s not likely to get 41 games hitting third unless a few injuries pop up.

157. Brandon Lowe (2B, TBR) – Lowe has the pop to hit 30 home runs, but injuries, inconsistency, and platoon splits continue to hold him back. If you’re desperate for power late in the draft, Lowe is a gamble worth considering, but at this point, it’s just a gamble.

158. Brendan Donovan (2B/OF, STL) – Remember the stuff I said about McNeil? That all applies to Donovan except for the fact that Donovan has missed almost half of 2023 with an elbow injury and also is at risk of landing on the large side of a platoon if he continues to slug under .300 against left-handed pitching. He should provide solid ratios against righties with double-digit home run power and a little bit of speed, but there’s a lot of playing time risk that comes with it.

159. Parker Meadows (OF, DET) – Meadows’ 22 home runs and 27 stolen bases across the majors and minors last season were exciting, particularly for action-starved Tigers fans like myself, but Meadows’ hit tool will likely limit his contributions to something closer to 15 in each category, assuming he gets a full season of plate appearances. His willingness to take a walk should give him a leg up on the leadoff spot in Detroit, so if Meadows continues to walk more than 10% of the time and keeps that strikeout rate around 25% or lower, he could provide 80 runs and sneak his way into the top 150 hitters.

160. Kris Bryant (OF, COL) – Over his first 32 games, Bryant hit .300/.387/.467 with five home runs and things looked like they’d finally work out for him in Colorado. Unfortunately, nothing went right for Bryant after that as he had two IL stints that lasted over a month each and posted a pitiful 40 wRC+ in the games he did play in over the rest of the season. Entering his third year of a seven-year deal, Bryant has only appeared in 122 games, but the first chunk of 2023 combined with his short yet strong 2022 still leaves a tiny morsel of hope that he could be a top 40 outfielder, though it comes with huge injury and performance risk.

Tier 16

161. Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) – There might not be another prospect in baseball with more hype than Wyatt Langford. Langford dominated professional pitching after being drafted by the Rangers in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft. Langford looks like the complete package and is already banging on the door of the major leagues. The reason he ranks in Tier 17 on this list is that the Rangers do not have a clear opening for him on their roster. Evan Carter, Leody Tavares, and Adolis García profile to be the Opening Day starters for Texas making it likely Langford will start in Triple-A. Langford also only has 44 professional games under his belt.

Here is what Steve concluded about Langford from our composite article:

“Langford projects as a power-over-hit prospect with good speed but has shown that all can be elite tools. To avoid projecting Langford as a top 10 MLB player, I would expect 30 home runs, and 15-20 steals with a .270 average as he begins his career. These numbers still put Langford at the top of the league and will be a fun kid to watch paired with Evan Carter in the Rangers outfield.”

162. Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY) – Stanton hits the ball unbelievably hard and misses a lot of games. It was true before, and it’s true now. The only real change in his game is that between the strikeouts, the fly-ball-heavy approach, and the loss of speed, Stanton is an extreme drag on your batting average and OBP. He only needs about 110 games to hit 30 home runs, but even getting that many will take some luck.

163. Mitch Garver (C, SEA) – Health has been an issue for Garver for several seasons, but his career .252/.342/.483 line highlights the upside he brings when healthy. Health should come a bit easier for Garver as the primary DH in Seattle, and if he plays in 120 games (his current single-season high is 103 set in 2018), he should hit something like 22-25 home runs with 75 or more RBI. I like Garver as a last-round dice roll in shallow single-catcher leagues, though folks in two-catcher formats may look for a safer option.

164. Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) – Manzardo appeared to be one of the more polished minor league batters heading into the 2023 season. Injuries, personal issues, and bad luck led to some struggles and ultimately resulted in him being traded to Cleveland. Manzardo still utilizes a mature approach at the plate with a plus-hit tool and plus-power. Landing in Cleveland provides Manzardo with a much clearer path to playing time which should come as early as Opening Day. Manzardo has quickly turned into an underrated dynasty asset and is being overlooked for redraft leagues as well.

Here is what Steve wrote about Manzardo back in November:

“Manzardo looked to turn things around when he was traded to the Guardians and continued to get reps in the Arizona Fall League. Mazardo has looked closer to his old form, hitting five home runs in the AFL but still has yet to see his average creep back up to his 2022 season. A .269 BABIP for Tampa and .233 for Cleveland in 2023 may be the reason for this and Manzardo is still a top first base prospect.”

165. Ryan McMahon (2B/3B, COL) – While McMahon’s 2023 seems productive on the surface, a huge amount of his production came over a 50-game hot streak over the summer where he hit .299/.388/.540 with 60 combined runs and RBI and 10 home runs. Before the streak, McMahon had a pedestrian .675 OPS, and afterward, he had a .672 OPS. That’s 50 games of good production and 102 games of sandbagging your stats. Throw in a rising strikeout rate and a horrible offense around him, and you have a player who can contribute to your counting stats when he’s at home and who should otherwise be on the wire.

166. Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL) – The third pick of the 2015 draft hasn’t quite lived up to what was expected, but his blend of hit tool and power has me coming back to the well one last time in deep drafts to see if he can put together a 17-20 home run season with a .275 batting average. It’s not impossible as he’s only 27 years old and will have every opportunity to be a key player for the Rockies, but it gets less likely by the season.

167. Sal Frelick (OF, MIL) – Frelick doesn’t have much in the way of power (his career single-season high is 11 home runs across three levels in 2022), which makes the fact that the Brewers hit him fourth so often in 2023 quite the surprise. Milwaukee’s relatively thin roster means Frelick is currently slated as the third or fourth hitter in this lineup heading into 2024 behind Yelich and Contreras, and if that holds then Frelick could be a candidate to drive in 80 runners with double-digit home runs and stolen bases. He’s likely not much more than barely above replacement level in 12-teamers, but those in deeper leagues or points leagues may get more mileage out of his low strikeout rates and ability to put the ball in play.

168. Brent Rooker (OF, OAK) – Rooker was a home run machine at the beginning and end of the season, but in between those outbursts was a brutal 69-game stretch where he struck out in 35.2% of his plate appearances and slugged just .358. Rooker struggled to make good swing decisions with two strikes on him, and his poor zone contact skills suggest this kind of volatility will continue to be part of his game. The home run total may very well be over 30 in 2024, but you’ll probably only want to roster him for about 50-60% of his plate appearances to get maximum value.

169. Henry Davis (OF, PIT) – He’s not catcher-eligible during your draft, but Davis should get the position eligibility back within the first few weeks of the season (as early as the second week in Yahoo leagues), and his 20 home run power upside isn’t the worst thing in the world to gamble on. I would be surprised if a healthy Davis fell short of 130 games played between catcher, DH, and outfield, and that kind of playing time should help Davis be a streamable catcher in most formats, and even a viable second catcher in leagues that require two. That being said, Davis is known as a defensive liability behind the plate, and if Pittsburgh decides to go in a different direction for improved defense, then Davis could be in trouble of becoming merely a platoon outfielder on a sketchy offense.

170. Leody Taveras (OF, TEX) – Tavares should find a way to get to 15 home runs and 15 steals in 2024 if he stays healthy as he fell only just short of those marks in 2023. I don’t think there’s much upside for more than that and Tavares is likely to stay buried at the bottom of the Texas lineup, so as long as your counting stat expectations are low, you won’t be disappointed.

171. Wilmer Flores (1B/3B, SFG) –2023 was arguably the best season of Flores’ career and he enters 2024 as the number four hitter in the lineup and everyday DH. Free agents could muddle things up a bit depending on their skill set, but look for Flores to roughly 20 home runs with decent counting stats and a batting average around .260-.270.

172. Zach Neto (SS, LAA) – Neto ran into serious trouble during his debut in 2023 and saw his contact ability decline sharply throughout his season. Assuming he can figure out how to make more contact, Neto could be the leadoff guy for the Angels and hit 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases with a .250-.260 average, but fixing contact issues is not a simple endeavor.

173. Austin Hays (OF, BAL) – It’s unlikely that there’s another level to his game, and most of his value comes from hitting fifth and playing a lot. The primary issue with Hays is that when he’s bad, he’s exceptionally bad, such as the 24-game stretch shortly after the All-Star Break where he hit .172/.215/.241.

174. Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) – If this was a list based solely on prospect potential, Caminero would much rank higher than this. That being said, he is part of a Rays team that rarely hands over full-time roles to unproven players. Caminero profiles better as a third baseman, a spot that is currently occupied by Isaac Paredes. The Rays will undoubtedly find ways to get Caminero’s bat into the lineup, but a high ground ball rate could become problematic at the major league level. Caminero’s raw power gives him plenty of potential and fantasy upside. He is a valuable prospect to target in redraft leagues.

Here is what Matt concluded about Caminero back in November:

“Caminero has as much upside as anybody on this list. He has massive power and is still years younger than many of the names likely to debut. He should get consistent run as an everyday player in 2024. There are some concerns, but he has the upside to be a difference-maker.”

175. Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, BAL) – Westburg could hit 20 home runs in a full season in the majors with workable ratios and counting stats; however, Baltimore isn’t likely to give him that many plate appearances unless there’s an injury or trade that clears up more room on their roster. Between Henderson being the man at third and youngster Connor Norby banging on the door to the majors, it’s hard to see Westburg getting more than 120 games in 2024, but if he does, he can be a solid piece to the back end of a fantasy roster.

176. José Abreu (1B, HOU) – I never really bought into Abreu in 2023 due to his lackluster 2022, but if the 37-year-old first baseman can find a path back to even a .250 batting average, he’s a threat to drive in 100 runners in the heart of the Houston lineup.

177. Gavin Lux (2B/OF, LAD) – Lux missed all of 2023 with a knee injury he suffered shortly before the start of the season, but returns in 2024 with the keys to the starting shortstop job. Once a top-five prospect, our expectations for Lux have fallen dramatically after 273 very average games (for fantasy purposes) to start his career. I suppose you can see 15 home runs and 10 steals if you squint a bit, but Lux’s only bankable value comes from his strong plate discipline which should lead to a .270 batting average and .350 OBP.

178. Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) – Two straight seasons of hitting just five home runs suggests the power outage is here to stay, but expect the White Sox to keep Benintendi at the top of the lineup in 2024, giving him a chance to score 70 runs or so and steal 10-15 bases with a decent batting average. He won’t provide anything else that’s helpful, but at least it ain’t nothing.

179. Anthony Rizzo (1B, NYY) – Rizzo folded after a hot start, slashing just .172/.271/.225 over the last 46 games he played before hitting the IL with a concussion. He was so bad that it was easy to forget that Rizzo had 11 home runs and a .305 batting average at the end of May, and there’s still a distinct likelihood that Rizzo starts the season as the number four hitter behind Judge and Soto. A return to the 30 home runs he hit in 2022 as a Yankee would easily get Rizzo to 100 RBI, but he’ll need to find health and consistency that just wasn’t there last season.

Tier 17

180. Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SFG) – Lee has excellent contact skills that should help ease his transition to state-side professional baseball. He is locked into a regular role on the Giants which gives him obvious value for 2024. San Francisco does not profile as an ideal home ballpark for his power metrics, but fantasy managers can count on him posting a valuable batting average in 2024.

Lee was not included in the composite write-up from November, but Jake Maish wrote an excellent piece detailing his dynasty value which you can check out here.

181. Luis Rengifo (2B/3B/SS/OF, LAA) – The super-utilityman Rengifo started walking a lot more than he had in 2021 and 2022, but other than that, it’s hard to imagine him being more than the 16-18 home run hitter with decent ratios that he’s been for the last two seasons. You’ll probably pick up Rengifo at various points in the season when dealing with injuries or when he’s heating up, but you don’t need to draft him in a format that includes a waiver wire.

182. Nelson Velázquez (OF, KCR) – Velázquez made waves once he was traded to the Royals, hitting 14 home runs in 40 games, though it came with a 29.3% strikeout rate and a .233 batting average. That more or less tracks with what we expected of him as a prospect, making him a lower batting average guy with a 25-30 home run upside. Some power hitters can get by with a low-walk approach (like his teammate Salvador Perez), but he’ll likely need to cut the strikeout rates to find any real consistency.

183. James Outman (OF, LAD) – Outman’s poor zone contact numbers early in the season led to an ugly slump that saw him hit the waiver wire in most standard leagues, but there were signs of optimism late in the season as he steadily improved his contact ability. Fastballs, in particular, were a huge weakness for Outman when it came to contact despite the fact he was excellent at making the correct swing decisions against them. On the bright side, Outman did get better at connecting with fastballs, and more growth could certainly happen.

Whiffing on strikes is a big red flag to me, as that can be more indicative of a talent problem than a mental problem, Outman’s power does present enough upside to keep me intrigued for 2024, just not as one of my first three outfielders.

184. Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) – Kirilloff’s hit tool and power could make him a valuable first baseman or outfielder in fantasy, but the injuries have never stopped piling up, allowing other players to get a chance to steal his spot in the lineup. If given the chance to play 120-140 games, Kirilloff could provide a .270 batting average with 17-19 home runs and decent RBI totals, but between a roster logjam and ever-present injury concerns, it’s hard to imagine Kirilloff getting that chance.

185. Mark Canha (OF, DET) –The upside is limited for the 34-year-old southpaw, but Canha is still an elite decision-maker who should play 140 games while batting somewhere in the first five spots in the lineup for a major league lineup. Double-digit home runs should be there, and he did steal 11 bases in 2023. I think the Tigers offense will be better than projections are suggesting, so don’t be shocked if Canha also finds a way to drive in 75 runners.

186. Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL) – Arcia finished as a top-20 shortstop in 2023 thanks to, well, playing in 139 games for Atlanta. He was actually on track to finish inside the top 15 or so until a putrid September knocked him down a few pegs (just a 54 wRC+ that month). Arcia didn’t do anything out of the ordinary or outside of his ability (though he had some luck in his batting average that I expect to fade away) and his glove is good enough that he should be able to stay in the lineup unless his bat falls apart.

187. Ty France (1B, SEA) – While France is still a useful source of plate appearances and counting stats due to getting over 600 plate appearances for three straight seasons, the upside is limited due to modest power and a complete lack of speed. A return to 20 home runs isn’t out of the question, but questions about the Mariners’ ability to score runs consistently could put a damper on France’s counting stat accumulation. He’s a high-floor player in deeper leagues and will have stretches of high production due to his durability and lineup spot, but those in 12-team leagues will often be left wanting more.

188. Luis Garcia (2B, WSH) – García’s skillset is best deployed in points leagues as he makes a ton of contact and rarely strikes out. A full healthy season should give us around 15 home runs and 10 steals with a .275 batting average, though Garcia has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons.

189. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) – Traded back in 2021 for Javier Báez, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s athletic abilities have been on full display. He is a talented defender which should give him a bit of grace as his bat develops at the major league level. His debut last season did not go well as he went hitless in 19 plate appearances. His 20 home runs and 37 stolen bases in the minor leagues speak to his upside as a fantasy asset. The concerns over his hit tool prevent PCA from ranking higher on this list.

PCA was not included in the consensus write-up from November, but he did rank as the Cubs’ top prospect in our rankings from July which you can check out here.

190. Amed Rosario (2B/SS, FA) – No matter where Rosario ends up, a .270 batting average and 10-12 home runs with 15 steals will likely follow. If that lands at the bottom of a team’s batting order, it’s replacement-level stuff that you can leave on the wire most of the time in a 12-teamer. If it finds its way near the top of the order, that’s a different conversation.

191. Maikel Garcia (3B, KCR) – Does five to seven home runs and 25 stolen bases with average ratios excite you? Then Garcia is your man. That’s extremely replaceable in most 12-team formats, but those in 15-team leagues will likely have Garcia much higher on your boards.

192. Danny Jansen (C, TOR) – Jansen has at least 15 home runs in two straight part-time seasons, though the batting average and walk rates returned to his lower career norms in 2023. The signing of Turner clogs up the DH spot that I previously assumed would be filled by Kirk and Jansen on their off days, so the playing time projection takes a hit. He should still play enough to be a top-12 to top-15 catcher, but I am not as rosy on Jansen’s upside as most projections.

193. Jose Siri (OF, TBR) – Injuries and roster shuffling will keep his total plate appearances down, but Siri has an elite combination of power and speed that will be relevant to us at various points in the season. He strikes out way too much and goes through long cold spells multiple times a season, but Siri is always worth keeping on your watch list when you require home runs or steals and don’t care about the ratios.

194. Luis Campusano (C, SDP) – Campusano was excellent in his 49 games in 2023, hitting .319/.356/.491 with seven home runs and just a 12.1% strikeout rate. Campusano has the power and plate skills to be a top-12 catcher, but being a young catcher is tough both mentally and physically and it’s hard to say exactly how many counting stats he can pile up in the bottom half of the extremely top-heavy Padres lineup.

195. Alek Thomas (OF, ARI) – There still could be 15 home runs and 15 steals in Thomas’s future, but it’s locked behind a career 56.8% groundball rate in the majors that wasn’t much better in the minors. Players can and do fix this issue, but it’s not easy nor common for the change to stick long-term.

196. Jakob Marsee (OF, SDP) – Marsee has the opportunity to earn the starting center field job in Spring Training this year. He put together an impressive first full season of professional baseball hitting 16 home runs with 46 stolen bases. There are questions over how well his power will translate to the major league level, but there is OBP and stolen base upside apparent. He should find himself in San Diego at some point during the first half and be a valuable fantasy asset once he arrives.

Here is what Matt wrote about Marsee back in November:

“Marsee is still incredibly underrated. The biggest question mark is his power, but a .280 hitter, who walks 12% of the time and can steal 35 bases only needs to hit about 15 home runs to be fantasy-relevant. His advanced approach makes him one of the safer prospects to target and there is a strong chance we see him debut in 2024.”

197. Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT) – If your league has swagger as a category, move Cutch up several tiers. Few players in baseball are as fun to root for as McCutchen, and while he doesn’t have the speed or power he did in his prime, his elite decision-making skills and a chance to play almost every day in the heart of a lineup means there are a lot of ways Cutch finishes in the top-175 hitters, if not the top-150.

198. Joey Meneses (UT, WAS) – Meneses provided solid batting average and counting stats in his first full season in the majors, but the 13 home runs were as many as he had hit in just 56 games in 2022. Meneses hits a lot of ground balls and also pops out quite a bit, so I’m not comfortable projecting more than 15 or so in 2024.

199. Bo Naylor (C, CLE) – The younger Naylor enters 2024 as the starting catcher for Cleveland, and while he was inconsistent in his 2023 debut, there’s enough power upside to see a path to 20 home runs and five to seven stolen bases. His high walk rate makes him a lot more viable in OBP leagues, but those in standard leagues who decided to wait until the last pick on a catcher might as well throw a dart on Naylor’s upside.

200. Yoán Moncada (3B, CWS) – Moncada has all but stopped walking over the last two seasons, he hasn’t played in at least 105 games in a season since 2021, and his only season slugging better than .430 was in 2019 (when it seemed like everyone slugged at least .400). If there’s any hope that Moncada can return to being a guy with close to 20 home runs and 130-140 combined runs and RBI, it comes from Moncada staying healthy. He’s mentioned that leg and back issues that plagued him the last two seasons have faded away, so those in deep formats needing a guy with plenty of playing time and maybe a hint of upside can take a gamble on Moncada, I guess.

Tier 18

201. Brice Turang (2B/SS, MIL) – Turang will struggle to reach double-digit home runs due to how often he hits the ball up the middle and to the opposite field combined with his limited power and propensity to focus on line drives, but his 26 stolen bases in 2023 should be at least mostly repeatable in 2024 as he enters the season with the inside track to the second base job in Milwaukee. Turang will probably hurt you in every category but steals, but that’s how it goes for 25 stolen bases at this part of the player pool.

202. Alejandro Kirk (C, TOR) – Being a very bankable 10-home run guy who can hit .270 with a .350 OBP is worth something, and to me, it’s this much. He’s safely inside the top 200 if you’re in an OBP or points league thanks to that one-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio he’s shown over his career.

203. Javier Báez (SS, DET) –Can Javy hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases in 2024? Sure. Can he at all return to the 31 home runs he hit in 2021 that also came with 18 steals? Probably not. Interestingly, Javy has become much better at controlling strikeouts, posting a career-best 22.9% strikeout rate in 2023. Unfortunately, it came with a .222/.267/.325 line and a 61 wRC+. The reduced strikeouts aren’t a result of increased patience as Javy’s swing rate is still about the same and he’s chasing as much as ever. Instead, the reduced strikeouts are coming from the fact that pitchers just aren’t throwing him any strikes (only about a third of pitches thrown to Javy are in the zone) combined with an improved contact rate in the zone. Unless Javy can also start turning more of that contact into fly balls and line drives, the upside is probably capped at 15-20 home runs with 12-15 steals, but he will play a bunch and that is worth something in some formats.

204. Jake Fraley (OF, CIN) – 15 home runs and 21 steals over 111 games should get me more excited, but between the crowded roster, his extensive injury history, and his team’s complete unwillingness to let him face left-handed pitching, I think 2023 represents Fraley’s realistic ceiling. It has great value over shorter periods, but he’s unlikely to be on rosters for a full season outside of deep formats.

205. Elias Díaz (C, COL) – I’m not sure Díaz can repeat the 141 games played in 2023 that drove him to 14 home runs and 72 RBI (they signed Jacob Stallings in January likely to give Díaz a breather in 30-40 games, if not more), but when he plays at home he’ll be a popular streamer for batting average and a little bit of pop.

206. Masyn Winn (SS, STL) – It was a debut to forget for Winn in 2023, but he should slot in as the starting shortstop for the Cardinals in 2024 and could certainly work his way to 10 home runs and 15 steals if he makes a few adjustments. Until that happens, though, he’ll be stuck at the bottom of the batting order and providing too little of anything to be roster-worthy in standard leagues.

207. Tyler Stephenson (C/1B, CIN) – As with Díaz, I doubt Stephenson gets to play anywhere near 140 games again in 2024 (he’s almost certainly not playing 51 games between 1B and DH like he did last season), but double-digit home runs and 100 combined runs and RBI make him a very serviceable second catcher.

208. Stone Garrett (OF, WSH) – Garrett won’t be ready to go on Opening Day, but his .271/.335/.477 line in 116 career games is worth waiting for in deep leagues as it comes with 17-20 home run upside if he plays in 130 games. He’s struck out a lot (30.7% of the time), but he seemed to get better at making stronger decisions as 2023 progressed.

209. Jesús Sánchez (OF, MIA) – Sanchez has a lot more power than his 14 home runs in 2023 would suggest, as evidenced by his 46.3% hard-hit rate. The issue for Sanchez comes from his decision-making, particularly on pitches outside of the zone. Those bad decisions often lead to bad contact, leaving Sanchez with a ground-ball rate near 50%. Until he can consistently pick the right pitches to swing at (and therefore drive more balls in the air), we won’t get to see the raw 25 home run upside that currently lies dormant in his bat.

210. Michael Conforto (OF, SFG) – I’d like to think that there’s another big power season in Conforto’s bat, but two straight seasons of slugging .384 make it tough to hold out too much hope. Conforto opens the season as the regular DH for the Giants, and his high walk rate and low strikeout rate make the floor pretty safe, especially in OBP leagues. There’s a chance he spikes another 20+ home run season, but don’t get your hopes too high.

211. Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL) – He only played in 96 games last year, but Blackmon still showed the ability to provide solid ratios (.279/.363/.440) with 15 home run pop (8 in just over half a season). There’s nothing too exciting here, and I’m not sure I start him on the road, but Blackmon remains a streamable option in most formats.

212. LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B/OF, SFG) – Wade Jr. was finally mostly healthy for a season, and he returned decent value (good value in OBP leagues) with 17 home runs and 64 runs scored. Wade Jr. should hit near the middle of San Francisco’s lineup, though the quality of that lineup makes it hard to project more than 110-120 combined runs and RBI to go along with 16-18 home run power. The floor is high, but the ceiling is fairly low.

213. Rowdy Tellez (1B, PIT) – In the single season where Rowdy played a full season, he hit 35 home runs. Now there’s a reason Toronto and Milwaukee didn’t want to play him every day (he’s awful against lefties), but the Pirates don’t have a lot of other options (Connor Joe is not what I generally consider an option), so if you want to roll the dice on a 25 home run season with bad ratios, I won’t stop you. Heck, if he starts pulling his fly balls a bit more, he could even hit more than that.

214. Mitch Haniger (OF, SEA) – Haniger has lost two straight seasons to injury (just 114 games played in 2022-2023), but he did hit 39 home runs for Seattle back in 2021. Would it be that weird if Haniger stayed healthy and hit 25 home runs with maybe a .240 batting average? Well, yes, but not that weird.

215. Will Benson (OF, CIN) – Apart from a 31.3% strikeout rate, and a wRC+ of 3 against lefties (not a typo, he was 97% worse than average players against same-side pitching), there was a lot to like about Benson’s 2023 season. The crowded Reds roster makes a full-time role all but impossible to imagine for Benson, but as a platoon player, he can certainly get to 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. The .275 batting average will almost certainly come down to something more like .230-240 due to his zone contact issues and some normal luck regression, but he’ll be very streamable throughout the season.

216. DJ LeMahieu (1B/2B/3B, NYY) – It was a tough season in the Bronx, but LeMahieu did hit 15 home runs and heads into 2024 as the leadoff man for the Yankees in front of Judge and Soto. A healthy LeMahieu could easily get to 90-100 runs scored along with a decent batting average, and that’s more upside than most at this part of the rankings.

Tier 19

217. Elehuris Montero (1B/3B, COL) – If the young corner infielder could get a handle on his 34.8% strikeout rate, he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with a .250-.260 batting average. Montero had solid strikeout rates in the minors but has not shown he can adapt to major league breakers yet. Until he does, he’s a low-floor dart throw.

218. Brenton Doyle (OF, COL) – 10 home runs and 22 steals in 126 games ain’t too bad, and the Rockies are likely to give Doyle a full season as their center fielder in 2024. He achieved these numbers despite posting a mind-blowing 19 wRC+ in Coors Field last season, which I have to think is some kind of fluke. If Doyle is even close to average at home in 2024, he’ll be a popular streamer in those games.

219. Luke Raley Jr. (1B/OF, SEA) – 19 home runs and 14 steals is nothing to sneeze at, but Raley’s issues with left-handed pitching and strikeouts make it hard to see a path to a consistent role. It also doesn’t help that Raley lost his fire down the stretch, hitting .196/.272/.366 with a 35.2% strikeout rate in his final 36 games. I would guess that he platoons with any number of bench guys near the bottom of Seattle’s lineup, and that’s far less appealing than his previous situation.

220. Harrison Bader (OF, NYM) – You can’t project Bader for more than 110 games, but even in that short amount of time he should hit a couple of home runs (up to 10, I’d guess) and steal 20 bases with bad ratios. That has a certain utility in some formats, and his hot streaks will land him on even some 12-team rosters for a few weeks. He’d be a 15 home run plus 30 stolen base threat if he played anything close to a full season, but he hasn’t done that since 2019.

221. Hunter Goodman (1B/OF, COL) – Goodman has a boatload of power and what appears to be an everyday role in the Colorado outfield, which means that he’ll be interesting whenever the Rockies are at home (which, of course, is 81 times). The ratios on the road will be too much to bear for most managers, but Goodman could very well finish with a .250 batting average and 25 home runs.

222. Seth Brown (1B/OF, OAK) – Brown should hit 25 home runs if he plays a full season, but he’ll do so with minimal counting stats for a full-time player and also will hurt your ratios. That’s useful in deeper formats and his volume will keep him relevant there, but shallow leaguers should look for more upside.

223. Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) – Abreu can hit the ball hard and run a bit, as shown by his 24 home runs and 11 steals in 114 games across Triple-A and the majors last season, plus he should be able to hit for a decent average thanks to his elevated line drive rates. Playing time is a bit of a question mark, though, as he may sit out against lefties with Bobby Dalbec and Rob Refsnyder on the roster.

224. Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) – The ceiling and floor are pretty close together with Marsh, as he’ll likely hit somewhere around .260 with 10-15 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases. I’m a little bit intrigued about the spiked walk rate in 2023 (12.5%, almost double his totals from 2021 and 2022), as it could lead to more stolen bases and make him a viable fifth or sixth outfielder in OBP leagues, but otherwise, there isn’t much to see here besides a strikeout rate that makes him fairly streaky.

225. JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) – I’ll let the charts tell the story, but I am curious about whether Bleday can hold on to this power along with his decision-making to overcome his limited contact ability.

226. Shea Langeliers (C, OAK) – A classic second catcher who can hit 20 home runs and also .210. There are plenty of builds that can benefit from the power boost at catcher, and maybe he finds just a bit better luck (and a less extreme fly ball approach) to get that average closer to .225 or .230.

227. J.D. Davis (1B/3B), SFG) – Davis is one of the best in the league at judging the strike zone and is a plus decision-maker with enough power to be a 20-home run threat, but he’s always struggled mightily at making contact. This skillset leads to a lot of streakiness, so shallow leaguers are better off streaming him while deep league folks can roster him full-time but may need to bench him a week or two per month based on whether he’s hot or cold and the upcoming matchups.

228. Whit Merrifield (2B/OF, FA) – Landing place and role will play a big part in how we rank Merrifield. If he lands somewhere that he will be given the chance to hit near the top of the lineup with a manager who likes to steal bases, Merrifield had a chance to be a top-150 hitter. If he goes somewhere that wants him to hit near the bottom of the lineup with a manager who is conservative on the base paths, then he could fall outside the top 200. I am projecting the latter.

229. Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) – The fantasy community seems to be down on Cowser after a disappointing major league debut last season. While his struggles at the major league level are relevant, fantasy managers should not ignore his 136 wRC+ at Triple-A. This is a talented prospect with plus power and a strong hit tool. Baltimore’s crowded lineup prevents him from ranking higher on this list.

Here is what Martin wrote about Cowser back in November:

“There are so many things to love about Cowser’s future. I think the bat is excellent and I believe in the skills. There are no reasons to think he cannot make adjustments and figure out off-speed pitching at the next level. Once he settles in, we are looking at an All-Star caliber player for many years to come.”

230. Ramón Laureano (OF, CLE) – A healthy Laureano can still hit 15 home runs and steal 15-20 bases, and if healthy the Guardians are all but forced to play the 29-year-old outfielder (I could have sworn he was much older) regularly. The ratios will be ugly, but double-digit power and speed and a clear path to playing time aren’t easy to find down here.

Tier 20

231. Michael Massey (2B, KCR) – There’s enough hit tool and power here for Massey to be a .250 hitter who threatens to hit 20 home runs and swipes a handful of bags, and Massey will get every opportunity to do so in 2024 for a rebuilding Royals team. Baseball Savant thinks Massey was a pretty unlucky hitter last season as he underperformed his expected batting average by 30 points and his expected slugging by 50 points, and our own internal expected stats (which take batted ball direction into account) think he was even more unlucky than that! I’m not sure there’s enough upside here for me to draft Massey in a 12-team league, but those in deeper formats could find some sneaky value.

232. Yan Gomes (C, CHC) – Gomes hit a surprisingly serviceable .267 last season as the Cub’s primary backstop, a role he will carry into 2024. 10 home runs is probably about all the veteran catcher can muster, and recreating his 63 RBI could be difficult given that the lineup around him is not as strong as it looked a year ago, but there should be plenty of consistency here for a back-end second catcher in deep leagues.

233. Anthony Rendon (3B, LAA) – Rendon hasn’t played in more than 58 games since his monstrous 2019 campaign where he hit 34 home runs, and while he continued to look like a solid hitter in 2020, injuries have completely thrown things off the rails since. While the plate discipline remains strong, Rendon is slashing .235/.338/.363 over 148 games since the start of 2021 with just 13 home runs. Sure, there’s a chance that Rendon is finally healthy and has another 20-25 home run season in him with strong ratios, but at this point, I think we’d be happy with 15 home runs and useful ratios.

234. Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) – O’Hearn hits the ball hard against right-handers and that should give him a chance to hit in the heart of the Orioles’ order whenever they face right-handed pitching. He’s likely a pure platoon player at this point unless Baltimore gets hit by a lot of injuries, but DFS players and streamers should keep O’Hearn on speed dial whenever a week of right-handed starters is on the schedule.

235. Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B/OF, CHC) – There’s nothing complicated about what Wisdom brings to the table—he hits the ball really far or strikes out trying. None of the ratios (besides slugging) will be good at all, but his versatility (despite the fact he’s not really a good defender at any position) should help him reach 100 games and 25 home runs. Just don’t look too closely at any of the other stats that come with it.

236. Jon Berti (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIA) – I was stunned that Berti, who finally played over 130 games for the first time in his career, stole just 16 bases despite the new stolen base environment (he stole 41 in 2022). If you want to take a gamble on some steals, then the versatile Berti and his 30 stolen base upside is worth a look at the end of drafts, though he’s likely to be a big drag on your runs and RBI (just 33 RBI in 133 games last season).

237. Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) – Castro swiped 33 bags in 2023 with a .257/.339/.411 line, which is much better than I ever remembered him being last season. Castro doesn’t have a starting job in Minnesota even with the departure of Polanco, but with multiple injury risks across the lineup (Lewis, Buxton, and Kirilloff, for example), Castro could find a way to another 120 games and 20 or more steals.

238. Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) – 14 home runs and a .276 batting average is quite a haul for a late-round catcher, and that’s what Jeffers did last season. I doubt Jeffers can overperform his expected batting average by almost 50 points for a second consecutive season, but 14 home runs with a .240 batting average isn’t that bad either at this stage of the draft. Move him down your board considerably if you’re trying to chase upside, but if you’re looking for a solid floor on a late catcher, Jeffers is here for you.

239. Davis Schneider (2B, TOR) – Schneider is highly unlikely to hit anywhere near the .276/.404/.603 he displayed in 141 plate appearances last season, but his ability to keep the ball off the ground combined with his developing power suggests a 20 home run season and a .340 batting average are each plausible outcomes if Schneider can sneak his way into 120 games. The Blue Jays have a couple of players who can man the keystone at any given time, but I think they’d prefer Schneider to be the guy due to his offensive upside over guys like Biggio or Espinal.

240. Ryan Noda (1B/OF, OAK) – OBP leaguers will love the 15% walk rate and 20 home run power, but playing for Oakland means counting stats are mostly unavailable, and Noda’s high strikeout rate will keep him out of most conversations in batting average leagues.

241. Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) – At the time of this writing, Vierling is the everyday third baseman in Detroit and doesn’t have any imminent threat to playing time (as I think Jace Jung will spend the first half of the season in the minors, if not longer). I could see Vierling compiling his way to 10-12 home runs and over 100 combined runs and RBI with a .260 batting average, and that kind of floor is nothing to scoff at in draft-and-hold formats.

242. Hunter Renfroe (1B/OF, KCR) – Kansas City isn’t a great place to hit home runs, and some young hitters might push for playing time that the Royals will be more interested in than Renfroe (such as Pratto and Waters), though for now the veteran outfielder appears to have a shot at another 20 home run season. Renfroe has historically held a solid batting average, though his high infield fly rate and diminishing power suggest the floor is considerably lower than it once was.

243. Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) – Speed upside is the name of the game, and McCarthy is a near lock for 40 steals if he plays a full season. It’s not at all likely he’ll get that kind of opportunity in 2024, but even 100 games should be enough to hit a few home runs while swiping 25 bags.

Tier 21

244. Joey Gallo (1B/OF, WSH) – Gallo has yet another new home, this time with a fairly clear path to 120 starts as the strong side of a platoon in the outfield with whoever happens to be on the Nats bench at any given moment. That should create a path to 20-25 home runs for Gallo, albeit with his infamous sub-.200 batting average and not-quite-as-awful .310 OBP.

245. Joc Pederson (1B/OF, ARI) – Joc is a classic platoon hitter who, with the right schedule, is streamable in 12-teamers and is serviceable as a back-end outfielder in 15-teamers. It’s actually better for his fantasy value for Pederson to remain in a platoon as he’s almost certainly a negative whenever he faces a southpaw, and he can still get to 20 or more home runs despite sitting against same-side pitching.

246. Joey Ortiz (2B, MIL) – Milwaukee dealt away ace Corbin Burnes and received Joey Ortiz as part of the package in return. Ortiz has posted strong numbers in the minor leagues but did not receive consistent playing time last season in Baltimore. The move to Milwaukee opens the door for an everyday role increasing his value for 2024. His hit tool profiles to be his best attribute at this point and there are concerns over how well his raw power can translate to game power. He is still a name to know for 2024 and should have nice multi-positional versatility giving his fantasy value a boost.

Jack ranked Ortiz as Baltimore’s 10^th best prospect which you can check out here.

247. Austin Wells (C, NYY) – The Yankees disappointing 2023 season allowed several top prospects to make their major league debut. Wells was one of them and hit four home runs in just 19 games. Thanks to his power, he has the offensive potential to be a standout fantasy option at catcher. The realistic truth though is that the Yankees will likely limit his playing time behind the dish as he continues to work on his defense in 2024. Splitting his time at catcher pushes him down to 14^th on this list.

Here is what Matt wrote on Wells back in November:

“Having seen Wells live a few times, the excitement for him in Yankee Stadium is substantial. The short porch and his pull-side home run power are extremely enticing from a fantasy perspective. He could be a difference-maker in the home run category from the catcher position.”

248. Jake Rogers (C, DET) – Roughly 20 home runs and a very low batting average is a lock in my mind as Rogers displays classic good decision-making with classic poor contact skills that we’ve seen from many catchers with a similar basic profile.

249. Connor Wong (C, BOS) – Wong doesn’t have the pop of some of the low-ratio power guys at the back end of the catching pool, but he makes up for it with his ability to steal six to eight bases and hit better than .230. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.

250. Carlos Santana (1B, MIN) – Santana was shockingly useful last season, hitting 23 home runs, swiping six bases, and contributing a whopping 164 combined runs and RBI. It’s unlikely Santana gets anywhere close to those counting stat totals again, but he should be able to swat 19-21 home runs with strong plate discipline that makes him rosterable in 14-team and deeper OBP formats.

251. Chris Taylor (3B/SS/OF, LAD) – I’m sure Taylor will finesse his way into 120 games again for the Dodgers somehow, though the strikeout rate stayed over 30% once again which means his batting average is probably stuck below .240 going forward. You’ll probably stream him at some points when he faces a lefty-heavy slate of games, but otherwise, the upside is too low to pay much attention to in 12-team formats.

252. Orelvis Martinez (3B/SS, TOR) – Martinez has the raw power to be a 35-40 home run threat if he can hit enough to stick at the major league level. He made sizeable improvements to his batted ball profile last season which should help provide more stability in his batting average. The Blue Jays have openings at multiple positions in their infield making Martinez a sneaky prospect to target in your redraft leagues.

Here is what Matt concluded for Martinez in our composite article:

“Even with the shift to third base, Martinez’s power should play well from a fantasy perspective. He is especially intriguing in points leagues (even more Ottoneu) where the lack of steals does not hurt as much. The improvements to his hit tool provide fantasy relevance in regular leagues as well and he should get a chance to prove himself at the major league level in 2024.”

253. Harold Ramírez (1B/OF, TBR) – Batting average is rare in the late rounds, but Ramirez has hit .300 or better in each of the last two seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball hard nor does he steal many bags, but batting average and OBP are categories too and Ramirez can help fill them.

254. Dylan Carlson (OF, STL) – The one-time prospect hasn’t been able to recreate his modest success from 2021 when he hit 18 home runs with 79 runs scored and a .266 batting average because, well, he just doesn’t hit the ball very hard. That being said, he does take plenty of walks and should find his way into 100 games or so. That should lead to 12-14 home runs and up to five steals with what ought to be a .250 batting average.

255. Jackson Merrill (SS, SDP) – Late last season, the Padres started to explore moving Merrill to a different position. He started games at second base, first base, and the outfield all in an attempt to increase his versatility. Why? Shortstop is blocked and the Padres are trying to figure out how to get his bat into their lineup. Merrill has excellent contact skills and a solid blend of power and speed. The team has a clear opening in left field and Merrill could fill that early on in 2024. He is still just 20 years old and could continue developing into an offensive force.

Here is what Matt wrote on Merrill back in November:

“Merrill’s strong contact skills are what help make his hit tool the carrying tool. Elsewhere, he is not great at any one thing but good at almost everything. His defensive versatility should help him break through to the major leagues in 2024 and there is potential for even more development. He has an extremely high floor and there is more ceiling here than people realize.”

256. Gary Sánchez (C, FA) – There’s always room somewhere for a catcher who can hit 20 home runs in limited plate appearances, and I imagine that someone will take a look at Sánchez during the spring. Sánchez hit 19 home runs in just 75 games last season, and even though it came with a .217 batting average and .288 OBP, there was enough there to suggest that he’s worth a dice roll.

257. Kyle Isbel (OF, KCR) – Isbel can get to double-digit home runs and steals if given the opportunity, and it seems like that’s what he’ll get as the centerfielder for the Royals 2024. I’m not convinced there’s much more upside than that along with a .240 batting average, but playing every day counts for quite a lot at this stage of the rankings.

258. Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL) – Mitchell has the pop and speed to hit 15 home runs and steal 15-20 bases, but his hit tool was exposed in a big way in the majors. If he can get that strikeout rate below 30%, Mitchell would have an outside chance at regular playing time, but until he proves he can handle MLB stuff, he’s likely stuck in triple-A.

259. Akil Baddoo (OF, DET) – Baddoo had 11 home runs and 14 steals in 2023, though a deeper outfield threatens to push Baddoo back to the minors to start the season. If the opportunity to start arises, Baddoo could be a 12-15 home run hitter who swipes 20 bases, and that’s more than enough for me to justify keeping Baddoo here in my rankings due to my irrational support and fandom.

260. Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TOR) – His fantastic glove will keep Kiermaier in the lineup when he’s healthy, as infrequent as that may be. While he’s in there, he should also hit around .250 with a bit of pop and speed, but be ready for the inevitable trip to the IL while making another highlight reel diving catch.

261. Travis d’Arnaud (C, ATL) – Atlanta remains surprisingly loyal to d’Arnaud, giving him plenty of run as the second catcher along with occasional DH at-bats. 12 home runs sound about right at this point in his career, and I think he can rebound his ratios to something closer to his career .250/.312/.425.

Tier 22

262.Myles Straw (OF, CLE) – Straw is a mortal lock for 20 stolen bases and 50 runs scored. Sure, he’s one of the worst hitters with a full-time gig, but he’s fast.

263. Ezequiel Duran (3B/SS/OF, TEX) – Duran is too aggressive most of the time with pitches he needs to leave alone, but he made it work in 2023 and put up strong ratios with some pop and speed. I feel pretty strongly that he’s the odd man out in Texas with kids like Carter and Langford on the rise, but if a few guys hit the IL as they did in 2023, then Duran will have some streaming appeal.

264. Freddy Fermin (C, KC) – Fermin was fantastic in his 70-game sample in 2023, hitting .281/.321/.461 with nine home runs. Injury cut his campaign short, though, and being the backup to Salvador Perez doesn’t often create much opportunity for playing time.

265. Brooks Lee (SS, MIN) – With the trade of Jorge Polanco, Lee has one less player to hurdle in order to become a regular in the Twins’ lineup. Since being drafted eighth overall in 2022, Lee has quickly worked his way through Minnesota’s minor league system. His extremely smooth swing produces tons of line drives and he consistently produces hard contact. The two players ahead of him at shortstop and third base (Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa) have a detailed injury history that should allow Lee to get his chance early on in the 2024 season.

Here is what Steve wrote on Lee back in November:

“Lee should get a good look in Spring Training to break camp as an everyday player for the Twins in 2024. With Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa on the left side of the diamond, Lee may have to move to the other side of the field. Either way, this is a good problem for the Twins to have with two young players in Lee and Lewis hoping to make an impact in 2024.”

266. C.J. Cron (1B, FA) – Cron was on a 25 home run pace before injuries ended his 2023 season, and while I don’t expect him to find his way into another starting role, I do think he can find a job and hit 20 home runs somewhere with a .250 batting average.

267. Mickey Moniak (OF, LAA) – Moniak had a nice little hot streak in 2023, but his struggles with making contact in the zone suggested that he was going to be prone to slumps and that’s exactly what we saw in the latter part of the season. The strikeout rate jumped to 36.7% in the second half and he slugged just .387 — a far cry from the .646 he slugged in the first half. That said, Moniak should be useful against righties (132 wRC+ against them last season) even with his aggressive approach and limited contact skills.

268. Tim Anderson (SS, FA) – Everything went wrong for Anderson in 2023 as he hit just a single home run and stole only 13 bases over 123 games for the White Sox. Anderson is currently looking for a new team and I suspect he’ll find someone who needs a middle infielder, and there should still be 10 home runs and 20 steals in him if he plays a full season. He’s more likely to find a 110-120 game role (which may not be the worst thing for him considering his injury history), but there could still be some juice to squeeze in the right situation.

269. Brandon Belt (1B, FA) – A lefty who can hit .250 and slug .490 will always be able to find work.

270. Michael Busch (3B, CHC) – Michael Busch was finally set free from the log jam of depth in Los Angeles. He gets a fresh start in Chicago where he is hoping to turn his impressive minor league numbers into major league success. Busch has struggled with strikeouts throughout his professional career and those struggles were prevalent in his major league debut last season. He has immense power which will need to play up if he lands at first base long term. There is significant risk in his profile despite a clear path to playing time after being traded.

Here is what Matt wrote on Busch back in November:

“The Dodgers rarely waste time letting a prospect work through things at the major league level. That said, Busch has shown all of the skills to be a very useful fantasy asset if he ever gets his chance at the major league level. .275 with 25 home runs is a realistic outcome.”

271. Brett Baty (3B, NYM) – The prospect shine has worn off considerably due to his excessive ground ball rates, but Baty’s power could theoretically shine through if he’s able to get the ball off the ground. His minor league track record suggests this will be a significant hurdle, though, so it’s hard to expect much from him in 2024.

272. Mark Vientos (1B/3B, NYM) – Like his teammate Baty, Vientos also struggled with too many grounders in the majors over the last two seasons, though his minor league track record isn’t quite so groundball heavy (though it does have more strikeout concerns than Baty’s). One of these two should win a starting job in 2024, and this ranking suggests I have no idea which it will be.

273. Victor Robles (OF, WSH) – Robles should be able to steal 20-25 bases in the new speed environment and he managed to steal 8 in just 36 games last season. There’s absolutely no power to speak of here and he’s a career .238 hitter, but darn it, he can steal some bases and that’s not easy to find down here. It helps that he’s likely the starting centerfielder in Washington, too, which means 120-140 games should be available.

274. Heston Kjerstad (UT, BAL) – Kjerstad’s ranking in Tier 24 has nothing to do with his talent. Instead it has to do with the crowdedness of Baltimore’s lineup. Fellow prospect Colton Cowser was already discussed and Kjerstad is in a similar situation. His 2024 playing time is likely dependent on struggles from either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle next season. If given the chance, Kjerstad has the raw power to be an impactful fantasy asset even if he lands at first base long-term.

Here is what Martin had to say about Kjerstad back in November:

“The story of Kjerstad and overcoming a life-threatening condition is an impressive one. His grit and determination to work his way to the big leagues show his character and motivation. I think Kjerstad starts the season at Triple-A and will be the first guy to get promoted this spring.”

275. René Pinto (C, TBR) – Pinto doesn’t quite have the power of some of the other catchers ranked above him, but he should be able to hit 15 home runs or so in 100 games with poor ratios. That’s acceptable for a catcher you draft this late.

276. Trent Grisham (OF, NYY) – Grisham is no longer an everyday player, which means getting to double-digit home runs and steals could be a little harder than it was in San Diego, but lefties in the Bronx will always be worth keeping at least a small bit of your attention due to the favorable park. If the Yankees decide to take Judge out of center to help preserve his health more, we could see Grisham with a more prominent role, and deep league players might then consider a cheap waiver bid to see what happens.

277. Nick Senzel (2B/3B/OF, WSH) – It appears that Senzel is slated to be the Nationals’ starting third baseman next season, and while he’s got very limited upside—something like 15 home runs and eight steals in a full season—he’s got plenty of position eligibility and won’t completely ruin your batting average (probably).

278. Drew Waters (OF, KCR) – Waters stole 16 bases and hit eight home runs in 98 games last season, and while he’s likely to start the season in the minors, he could certainly put up double-digits in both home runs and steals if he plays 100 games. The strikeout rate remains a big issue (33% in 130 games in the majors), but if he can walk 10% of the time, Waters could be of interest to deep OBP managers.

279. Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SFG) – If 15-17 home runs, a .230 batting average, and 120 or so combined runs and RBI sound useful to you, then here they are. I suppose there’s upside for 20 home runs, but the Giants have a weird and crowded outfield that will make it hard for Yaz to get the plate appearances he needs to get to that number.

280. Colson Montgomery (SS, CWS) – Montgomery has seemed to be on the verge of breaking out for several seasons now but has never been able to post the offensive numbers that generate tons of attention. Still, he ranks as one of the game’s top prospects and has impressive raw power. The lack of talent on the White Sox depth chart gives him a chance to make his Major League debut at shortstop in 2024 despite his long-term home likely being at third base. Montgomery profiles to be a four-category fantasy asset although playing for the White Sox likely limits his 2024 value.

Here is what Steve wrote on Montgomery from our composite article in November:

“Montgomery is a top prospect in all of baseball and could be a cornerstone for the White Sox’s foreseeable future. 2024 spring training could open an opportunity after a stint in the Arizona Fall League for Montgomery to reach his everyday role with the White Sox as soon as possible. “

281. Justyn-Henry Malloy (OF, DET) – The Tigers surprised many by not promoting Justyn-Henry Malloy to the major leagues last season. Malloy has done nothing but hit since being drafted by Atlanta in 2021 and that did not change last season. Malloy’s fantasy value is highest in OBP leagues where his impressive walk rates lead to more value. Outside of that, he has plus raw power and has shown the ability to hit for a solid average throughout his professional career. The lack of a true defensive home could limit his playing time in 2024.

Here is what Steve wrote on Malloy back in November:

“Malloy is a good hitter with a patient approach which gives him a better chance to be successful at the MLB level. Malloy has done all he can at the minor league level so the Tigers should give him a full season to see what he can do in Detroit.”

Tier 23

282. Jo Adell (OF, LAA) – Adell really has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he continues to show upside in the power department (27 home runs in 91 games across Triple-A and MLB), but that 35.4% strikeout rate over 619 MLB plate appearances tells the story, and it’s not a pretty one. If you want to shoot for the moon and see if you can catch 25 home run lightning in a bottle, I won’t stop you.

283. Adalberto Mondesi (SS, FA) – Speaking of lightning in a (very fragile) bottle, Mondesi remains a free agent (likely because he’s appeared in just 50 games since the start of 2021) but if he lands anywhere that has any interest in playing him in 50 or more games, we could see him return to the land of 20 or more stolen bases in very short order. The ratios will be poisonous and the power will be paltry, but if you’ve got a need for speed and a gambler’s risk tolerance, Mondesi could be…something?

284. Adam Duvall (OF, FA) – Assuming Duvall lands somewhere that can give him 110-120 starts, he should hit 22-25 home runs with a low batting average. I’m not sure what the market is for right-handed corner outfielders who strike out a lot, but I’d guess that it’s not all that big. If I knew he’d get the 120 games, he’d probably be up 10-20 spots.

85. Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) – Dominguez was another Yankee prospect who got a chance to make his major league debut last season. His major league career started with a bang as Domínguez hit four home runs in his first eight games. Unfortunately, Domínguez tore the UCL in his right elbow and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. Domínguez is unlikely to return until after the All-Star Break pushing him down this ranking list. For leagues with multiple IL slots, he could be a sneaky draft and stash option.

Here is what Martin wrote about Domínguez last November:

“After undergoing Tommy John surgery, we will not likely see Domínguez back in the major leagues until the middle of 2024. However, the upside he flashed in his first stint is indicative of the kind of potential he has. Domiíguez is an excellent athlete with the power and speed to be a big-time fantasy asset.”

286. Avisaíl García (OF, MIA) – Health has always been a problem for the 6’4 outfielder, but García’s power and playing time provide just enough upside to a possible 17 home run season while hitting .240-.250.

287. Miguel Vargas (1B/2B, LAD) – Vargas is likely relegated to the minors for most of 2024, but if he can just learn to take the bat off his shoulders every once in a while, he could be a threat to hit 20 home runs with strong ratios.

288. Luis Urías ( 2B/3B, SEA) – His versatility in the infield should help him find 100 games or so for the Mariners, and in that time he should take some walks and hit double-digit home runs. His very limited power and batted ball profile will likely keep the batting average too low to be considered in standard formats, but the double-digit walk rate should have him on deep league OBP radar as a fill-in at various times in the season.

289. Geraldo Perdomo (2B/3B/SS, ARI) – Perdomo is mostly just blocking Lawlar from a fantasy perspective, but NL-only players will certainly appreciate his strong plate discipline and ability to steal 15 bases. He can’t really do much else and I doubt he gets more than 50 runs (he had 71 in 2023 due to some fortunate lineup cards), but he’ll at least start the season as an everyday player.

290. Tyler Black (2B/3B, MIL) – Black seemed like he had a good chance to make the Opening Day roster before the Brewers traded for Joey Ortiz. He still has a chance to do so with a strong spring but could see less playing time. Black has big-time speed and hit 18 home runs last season. His batted ball data suggests that his power is more suspect although his speed is the real deal.

Here is what Martin wrote about Black last November:

“Black is an intriguing profile with his stolen base prowess and high OBP. If the power holds, Black should settle into an everyday role despite his defensive faults.”

291. Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA) – The Angels wasted no time getting Schanuel up to the major leagues. He appeared in just 22 minor league games before joining the Angels. Schanuel’s patient approach at the plate gives his OBP a stable floor. He also has enough raw power to be an offensive force. The issue is that his batted ball profile prioritizes contact over home runs which lowers his fantasy value at first base.

Here is what Steve wrote on Schanuel last November:

“Schanuel has value because his bat and approach are advanced but if he doesn’t hit for much power or steal many bases, he may not be a top first baseman. Schanuel may have the opportunity for a lot of runs as he often hit at the top of the lineup in 2023.”

292. Cavan Biggio (1B/2B/3B/OF, TOR) – His propensity to hit weak fly balls puts a very hard and low cap on his batting average, but the high walk rate and his 10-home run, six stolen base combo might entice deep OBP league managers.

293. Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, BOS) – Following closely behind Black is Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela possesses plus speed and profiles as an outfielder at the major league level. He stands at 5’8” which limits his power projection and adds risk to a suspect hit tool. The Red Sox outfield is crowded and Rafaela will need to prove himself offensively to earn consistent playing time.

Here is what Martin wrote about Rafaela last November:

“The Red Sox gave Rafaela a brief look in September last season, and he offered mixed results. He hit .241 with eight extra-base hits but struck out 33% of the time with a 4.8% walk rate. His glove was great, but the bat was concerning. Rafaela needs a strong offensive Spring Training to give the Sox hope for his future.”

294. Michael A. Taylor (OF, FA) – Taylor is coming off a 21 home run, 13 stolen base season that represents the 95th percentile outcome for a guy who really shouldn’t be playing that many games for most teams. Projections have Taylor hitting 15 home runs, stealing about 10 bases, and hitting roughly .220, which in theory would rank him about 50 spots higher (which isn’t that much this late in the game). Those projections likely assume that someone wants his plus glove in center field, and while that may be the case, a part-time Taylor is not rosterable and that’s what I see as the most likely outcome right now.

295. Liover Peguero (2B/SS, PIT) – Peguero likely will start at the keystone in Pittsburgh and has 15 home run and 15 stolen base upside, though Ji Hwan Bae and Nick Gonzalez will likely eat into 30-40 of his potential starts as the Pirates try to figure out what they have so that they can ensure they trade away the good players and trade for the bad players.

296. Curtis Mead (3B, TBR) – Mead still has some prospect shine on him due to the strong hit tool, and hopefully, he doesn’t sit on the bench as often when he’s next called up to the big leagues. I could see Mead as a 17-20 home run guy with a .270 average and a double-digit walk rate at some point, so keep an eye on him in Triple-A.

297. Vidal Bruján (2B/SS/OF, MIA) – His new team doesn’t run as often as his old one, but Bruján should have a slightly easier path to playing time now that he’s out of Tampa Bay. Bruján is unlikely to provide much fantasy juice outside of the speed department, but given 100 games to run in, Bruján could certainly swipe.

298. Darell Hernaiz (SS, OAK) – There’s double-digit power and speed potential for Hernaiz, but unfortunately it’s stuck in Oakland.

299. Brayan Rocchio (3B/SS, CLE) – Rocchio’s glove will create opportunities that his bat would likely not have opened up, and assuming the 31.4% strikeout rate in his first 86 plate appearances was a mirage (which it likely was), he could hit seven to nine home runs and steal 15 bases while hitting .250. That assumes a full season, though, and the more likely reality is that he sticks to around 100 games and falls short of double-digit home runs or steals.

300. Marco Luciano (SS, SFG) – Giants’ ownership says that Luciano will have a chance to be the regular shortstop, and a path to 120 games is more open now than it ever has been for Luciano before. The high strikeout rate and high groundball rates limit the offensive potential significantly, though, so it’s hard to project more than 15 home runs and his batting average is likely to stick around .220.

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6 responses to “Top 300 Hitters For Fantasy Baseball 2024”

krsfaz says:

February 8, 2024 at 1:16 PM

Massive drop for CES from your December rankings. Is that purely because of playing time questions?

- Scott Chu says:
  
  February 8, 2024 at 1:46 PM
  
  Yup. Jeimer had been signed right when I finished the article, and I was thinking we’d see Cincy do SOMETHING to open up more room in the lineup (like moving India). A few months later and it seems the Reds are content to keep things as they stand, which muddies the waters significantly.
  
  I still think Encarnacion-Strand has massive upside, but there’s only so high you can rank a guy who has a difficult path to even 400 plate appearances.
  
ThePolarBearExpress says:

February 8, 2024 at 3:50 PM

Would you be willing to also post these in a table so people can move it into excel?

- Scott Chu says:
  
  February 9, 2024 at 7:53 PM
  
  This will be available for folks on the Discord! Just DM or @ me there.
  
A's fan homey says:

February 8, 2024 at 5:05 PM

Olson and the A’s made the playoffs in 3 of the seasons Olson was there… Jerk

- Scott Chu says:
  
  February 9, 2024 at 7:58 PM
  
  The team has seen success in short spurts, but attendance has always been low, the stadium is neither fun to play in nor adventageous to hitters in any respect, and ownership openly was trying to get rid of him and his contract at the end.

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Top 300 Hitters For Fantasy Baseball 2024

Scott Chu

6 responses to “Top 300 Hitters For Fantasy Baseball 2024”

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