I’ve updated my Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Rankings for 2024 for the first time since my October ranking of the Top 200 SP and instead of ranking the Top 300 SP, I somehow went overboard and made it the Top 400 SP this year. Sorry about that.
We made it. After going through all thirty teams meticulously with the community during my Playback.Tv livestreams, doing far more prospects research than I ever have, and taking nearly an extra two days past the deadline to polish these ranks to make sure I didn’t miss anyone, and add on another 100 pitchers at the end, we finally have the Top 400 Starting Pitchers for 2024 Fantasy Baseball.
Before we get to the rankings, I want to outline how we’ve set up this post a little differently this year. Instead of simply one MEGA POST like you see below, we’ve also separated them out into many smaller chunks for easier access to what you’re looking for.
In addition, I’ll be adding specific articles for my targets, sleepers, and category focuses that pull my analysis here and sorts them for a quick look-up before your drafts. I apologize in advance that it’s the same text.
And finally, I’ve attached my strategy section from the Top 200 Starting Pitchers into this article as well – it reviews the principles of my rankings, early schedules, and how to best utilize the information below to best craft your draft.
Good luck! I’m excited to chat more about them before I give my first officially update to these rankings in early March.
AGA,
-Nick
How To Use These Rankings
It’s important to take a moment to express my general philosophy for drafting starting pitchers. It remains unchanged from years past in case you’ve heard me say this before. My strategy comes in two parts. First:
- 1. Draft THREE starting pitchers I trust to never drop during the season
Essentially, you don’t need to get two of the Top 15 starters to excel. Instead, develop a foundation of three starters who won’t be so bad that they deserve a drop. This year that speaks to the Top 36 starters or so, but creeps into the 50s as well. It doesn’t mean just get three and call it a day, it just means having three starters allows you to have a foundation, even if it’s not including a top 10 starter. I heavily encourage grabbing three and then aiming to fill up the next two or three within that Top 50 if you can – generally, SP value lies in the middle of the draft, anyway.
- 2. Chase upside & pitchers you can drop early instead of middling decent pitchers
This is I Don’t Draft Tobys in a nutshell and is rooted in how much opportunity there is on the waiver wire in April & May. You need to put yourself in a position to take chances on pitchers early in the season as so many of them hit and become legit foundation starters through the year. Make sure your final pitchers are guys you can move on early in April if it’s not panning out, and if you draft middling arms instead, you’ll likely hold onto to a 3.70 ERA guy instead of taking the chance on a true league winner. Don’t be that manager.
Don’t believe me? Here are Starting Pitchers who had a 2023 ADP of #290 or later and could be snagged in your leagues:
And that’s not even including this rag-tag crew containing many pitchers you were able to grab at specific points of the season for legit value:
Now you understand. That’s where I’m coming from with these rankings and it’s important to not treat them as a “Best Ball” ranking – you’re not drafting a team you hold for the full year, instead you’re drafting a team with anticipation that you’re burning and churning at the back-end of your roster. It’s the way you win your leagues.
Early SP Schedules
One element that I often don’t discuss this early when doing rankings is the expected opening weekend schedule. It doesn’t have much of an impact on these rankings, but as we get closer to the start of the year and rotations become clearer after trades, signings, and injuries, it may reveal some late-round targets to sneak in a start or two in your head-to-head leagues that may turn into season-long holds (like Brayan Bello and Tyler Wells in 2023).
First, here are the individual offense ranks:
In essence, we should only be considering being conservative against the Top tier offenses (and maybe some Solid tiers as well), while take a chance here or there against the Poor offenses (I’m sure some will surprise us!). Everything else in the middle is up for grabs.
And here is how the start of 2024 shapes up:
Here are my thoughts on these opening schedules:
- Does Rockie Road actually apply if the Rockies offense hasn’t actually played in Colorado yet? Part of their decline on the road is being used to how the ball moves in Coors and if they aren’t acclimated to it yet, the offense may perform better in Arizona and Chicago than expected.
- These offense rankings were created in October and will obviously change once the season begins.
- I personally love chasing late-round starters who pitch the opening weekend. You can steal a productive outing, then drop them for whatever upside pitcher you were considering who hasn’t pitched yet. It’s just an extra hint of value you can steal at the beginning of the season.
- The Padres and Dodgers are playing a two-game set (each with one game as the home team) in Seoul, South Korea a week before Opening Day. It makes me wonder if there’s a little extra value for having one of these four stud pitchers (possibly Joe Musgrove & Yu Darvish vs. Bobby Miller & Walker Buehler) toss one more start than everyone else.
- Then again, Yahoo is apparently not including those two games in their leagues. Take note of your situation.
- In addition to this, the Padres fourth matchup is @SFG. while the Dodgers get @ CHC. Both of these act as the normal third matchups given rotations will reset week between the Korea series and opening day.
- ARI, CIN, MIA, CHW, CLE, DET, OAK each have seemingly favorable matchups to kick off the season. Here are a few pitchers who could go by Sunday who and provide sneaky draft value:
- Arizona vs COL (x4): Ryne Nelson or Brandon Pfaadt or an FA signing. Not sure I’d do this.
- Cincinnati vs. WSN: SP #3 will likely be Andrew Abbott, and even though I have him ranked past #100, that’s a tempting opening weekend stream.
- Miami vs. PIT (x4): Consider Braxton Garrett or a possibly healthy Trevor Rogers or AJ Puk.
- White Sox vs. DET: Monitor how this shakes out.
- Cleveland @ OAK (x4): We may see Logan Allen in the #4 spot and that’s awfully tempting.
- Detroit @ CHW: After Skubal and Maeda it’s…? Matt Manning? Casey Mize? Jack Flaherty? Too much haze here.
- Oakland vs. CLE (x4): Everyone? JP Sears, Paul Blackburn, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, At least one of these will be the talk of the town opening weekend.
At first glance, it doesn’t seem like this strategy is all too helpful for 2024. That said, offenses will change, rotations will shift, and spring brings new excitement. Refer to this table in March.
Alright, let’s get to it now. Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
For those unaware:
- Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
- Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office. Don’t draft them.
- Holly = The better version of a Toby – essentially a starter who will be in the 21-24% strikeout range with decent ratios instead of the 20% strike rate or fewer of Toby types.
Read The Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about my thought process and why I’m ranking guys in a certain way.
- The initial plan was to write one or two sentences on everyone. I found myself writing extensive outlines instead, leading this article to come out a full week later than intended. Sorry.
- I shifted from heavy blurbs to short reviews halfway through as I had to get this dang thing out already. Remember, these are my early thoughts and I’m looking forward to solidifying my 2024 outlook across the next six months.
- Seriously. Read the notes.
Tier 1 – Ace Workhorses
If I’m going to spend on an SP this early, give me those who have track records, high expected volume, and expected elite marks.
1. Spencer Strider (ATL, RHP)
Y’all know he’s dope and going to be dope. Probably. I have no issue with anyone who lists Strider as their SP #1 given the high Win potential and favorite to lead the league in strikeouts. I have a small worry about a few things. First, it’s a two-pitch mix where his command is not as pristine as others, making for times when batters can sit on the heater when the slider doesn’t find the zone, and the four-seamer isn’t perfectly placed upstairs. I actually wonder if he can move to a Fosh changeup grip that may be the nullifier he’s been searching for in addition to being another option to keep batter’s honest off the four-seamer.
The other issue is contact. He misses more bats than any in the league at a 20%+ SwStr rate – a mark I haven’t seen outside of the short 2020 season or Jacob deGrom – but his ICR? 27th percentile at 41%. He forces batters to guess 50/50 on what’s coming, which can be manipulated to take advantage of hitters, though it makes contact do more harm than other stud arms, especially with the higher velocity.
It’s a major reason why Strider had a 3.86 ERA last year. But his FIP is 2.85! That assumes all balls in play are equal and I just told you that it’s not for Strider. Ohhhhh. That doesn’t mean he should be avoided – of course not – it just means I don’t expect him to lead the league in ERA. The four-seamer and slider are still going to be filthy and rack up all the strikeouts, the WHIP could improve from 1.09 if he has fewer innings without the loss of command, and the Wins will be there. It’s not the same historical floor as Cole but that’s fine, right?
2. Gerrit Cole (NYY, RHP)
Can I just write “he’s the most consistent SP in baseball and don’t overthink this”? Because I’m overthinking this right now and I’m kinda scared…? I often wave aside Cole in fantasy analysis since it’s such an early pick and your time is better spent elsewhere, but there are actually weird things happening and I need to tell y’all about it.
Cole’s pitches were demonstrably worse in 2023 and yet he had his Cy Young year with his best ratios since sticky stuff. Cole’s VAA and iVB marks, merged with 97/98 mph velocity, have made his four-seamer elite since his arrival, yet they all fell last year. His VAA went from elite to above-average, he lost almost a full inch of iVB since last year, and he lost over a tick of velocity. Sure, but the pitch still dominates! Did it? It’s awfully weird to see Cole hold ~9% SwStr rates against RHBs across the years with his four-seamer (I DON’T GET IT), but its 27% called strike rate fell to just 18% last year, returning a 28% CSW overall, preventing him from earning a single King Cole last year. You know, the term he coined for his elite CSW marks.
The pitch also took a step back against LHBs. Cole racks up the whiffs with his four-seamer against LHBs, but the pitch has gone from a 21% to 18% to now 13% SwStr rate across the last three seasons. That’s still good. It is, but it’s not “the greatest four-seamer in baseball” good.
I’m worried about that heater and hope he can regain it, while there’s an equal concern with his slider. Cole has routinely held 33%+ CSW marks on the pitch against LHB,s yet it fell to just 28% last year as it dropped six points in SwStr to 18%. It’s still solid, but he failed to land it under the “Nitro Zone” of LHBs consistently last season, bringing its O-Swing to a pedestrian 33% clip. This is COLE we’re talking about here, he’s not supposed to flirt with plebs.
His cutter has helped him find some extra strikes and navigate lineups better, but hot dang, I want the old Cole back. I’m not sure I can trust his HR/9 to sit comfortably below 1.00 again, especially after the demonstrative 1.48 clip he featured in 2022. He’s obviously going to be an ace for your squad, but hot dang, are we starting to see mortality from the SP king of fantasy baseball?
3. Corbin Burnes (BAL, RHP)
I have so many thoughts and I’ll try to keep it succinct (Spoiler Alert: I don’t). In short, I’m not concerned about Burnes as his 2023 “down” year can be condensed to “hey, he struggled against right-handers with all his pitches, but I’m still the dopest against left-handers.” Considering Burnes is still a ratio stud with 200 strikeouts (and just 10 Wins…), I’m encouraged about a better 2024 season ahead. But how will he improve against right-handers? I’m glad you asked.
One stat I’ve been using incessantly this off-season is ICR – a stat that best outlines “when a pitcher allows a ball in play, is it good or bad for them?” Allowing higher than a 40% ICR on a fastball is poor (35% for a secondary pitch) and sub 35% for a fastball is excellent (sub 30% for a secondary with the rare 25% ICR being legendary). Why bring this up? All four of Burnes’ major offerings held a 35%+ ICR against right-handers, while his major three against left-handers were all below 32%. Again, he’s really good at taking down left-handers with back-door cutters, a filthy changeup, and his big hook.
ANSWER MY QUESTION, NICK. Right, right. The cool thing about Burnes is how each of his four pitches against right-handers – cutter, slider, curve, sinker – can be feasibly better. First, his bread-and-butter, a cutter that earns all the strikes. Its 70% strike rate last year against RHB was stupid high because none of his other pitches held a 60%+ rate. It messed with its locations, which moved the pitch from its fantastic down-and-away spot to more centralized, where it was clobbered more often than usual. Reclaim that focus away, and better results should follow.
The breakers are a different story. I’ve been an old man shouting at a cloud for years watching Burnes neglect his slider, featuring it sub 20% of the time to right-handers (just 8% overall last year!) despite absurd SwStr numbers to die for. I truly believe Burnes needs to lean on it more, which may help him remove its mistakes over the plate. After all, you throw it more, you generally get more comfortable with a pitch. The curve is a different story. Its putaway rate was cut in half last year as he simply threw too many mistakes in the dirt with it. I think this may be more of a sequencing/feel situation and it shouldn’t be living in the 54% strike depths once again. This is more of a “believe me, bro” than any here, but, um, Believe me Bro.
Oh, and there’s also a sinker in the mix that he doesn’t command high enough, nor does it have a vicious horizontal break to be a massive difference-maker at the moment. If he can get the pitch to be more inside-up or inside-middle instead of down, it could be another strike-earner he desperately needs against right-handers.
I have to mention that the move to Baltimore should only help Burnes. I initially had Burnes and #4 and moved him to #3 with the move as the increased Wins, pitching for a WS contender, and moving away from Miller Park to Walltimore are solid tiebreakers over Wheeler. It’s going to be fun watching Baltimore rally around the Orange Burnes.
Hi. We made it to the end. Burnes has areas to improve, but at the end of the day, he’s one of the best mitigators of hard contact in the bigs. His overall ICR was 92nd percentile last year while still earning a 13%+ SwStr rate. This will keep the ERA and WHIP down, especially with the walk rate falling as he earns more strikes to right-handers. As one of the workhorses around with sparkling ratios and 200+ strikeout potential, he’s a clear stud for the year ahead.
4. Zack Wheeler (PHI, RHP)
Wheeler’s fastballs are incredible and keep his production floor as high as any. Righties suffer to the whim of his four-seamer’s 20% SwStr rate and 41% CSW against them, mixed with an elite sinker that barrels into the handle of the bat 75% of the time for a 30% ICR and fantastic results. Those two pitches deflating the ambitions of RHBs is the cause of Wheeler’s incessant appearances in the seventh inning, even if the absurdity doesn’t carry over to LHBs to the same degree – Wheeler’s signature heater is only a 36% ICR there with an 11% SwStr rate. How dare he.
You may be surprised to know that Wheeler’s four-seamer doesn’t have great iVB at a pedestrian 14.1 mark. It’s his elite extension, VAA, 95/96 mph velocity, and high locations that make the pitch so dang difficult to deal with. It’s the full package, not just iVB, y’all.
The rest of the arsenal has always been a work in progress, and their lack of electricity illuminates the dominance of his fastballs. RHBs were served mostly sweepers to counteract the heater and despite having all the favor of batters focused on the fastball, Wheeler’s sweeper vastly underperformed, returning just a 53% strike rate across 22% usage. The pitch had reasonable success in two-strike counts, though finding a rhythm as a strike pitch in and out of the zone will help Wheeler distance himself from the occasional clunker.
With the introduction of the sweeper, Savant has classified last year’s slider into this year’s cutter, which was reserved for lefties to take the place of his sinker, which only appeared as a surprise front-hip offering in two-strike counts. It’s another area for growth as the cutter allowed a mediocre 43% ICR, though it fared far better in 2022 and could return next season. For a proper off-speed look, Wheeler leans on his curveball, which he gets down incredibly often, but doesn’t see the results you’d want – 59% strike rate, high ICR rate, and a shockingly low 25% CSW.
A belief in Wheeler is a belief in his heaters dominating for another season. There’s still room for upside with the mediocrity of his secondaries, and figuring just one of them out transforms him into another level of dominance, especially with his workhorse resume. There are few safer than Wheeler to target in drafts.
Tier 2 – Aces With Small Flaws
It’s weird to talk about flaws at #5, though each of these pitchers have a hole or two that may reveal themselves in season. That said, all have Top #5 SP ability and are expected to carry every week of the year.
5. Pablo López (MIN, RHP)
After living in Miami and trying to figure out a proper #3 pitch to complement his deadly changeup and well-commanded four-seamer, López was a new man in Minnesota. Pablo went to Driveline last off-season, and he returned not only with a new sweeper that earned a 32% CSW and minuscule ICR% against RHBs but also with two extra ticks on his four-seamer, transforming it from an 11% SwStr rate pitch to 17% SwStr in 2023. Whoa. Just a cool 98th percentile SwStr four-seamer that destroyed RHBs for a 22% SwStr and won the hearts of many. I still have some small concerns about that four-seamer as it can find the zone a little too much at times, resulting in a high 44% ICR, though its near 40% CSW and 78% strike rate absolutely make up for it (maybe there’s a small adjustment of not giving in as much with the pitch?).
His gains didn’t stop there. Having a strong breaker against RHBs opened the door for the curve and change to dominate in two-strike counts, each returning 20% SwStr marks of their own. And the sinker? Pablo uses it perfectly. He utilizes it 90% of the time early in counts or when behind to surprise batters inside to earn quick outs. We’re talking an elite 42% O-Swing and 27% ICR against RHBs. Pure bliss.
Unfortunately, there’s still a touch of work to be done against LHBs. Sweepers are not nearly as effective when breaking into batters, while four-seamers generally perform worse against opposite-handed batters and López is no exception. The fastball misses far fewer bats, and without the sinker’s ability to earn quick outs, nor the sweeper acting as a proper weapon, López often finds himself going between his changeup and curve alone. That changeup is excellent (you’ll hear him say in this 90-minute interview I had with him how he tells himself “The Change Is Always There”), but it can make mistakes over the plate, while the curve isn’t the destroyer of worlds we want it to be. Imagine if López develops a cutter at Driveline…
In the end, López is a command pitcher with clear workhorse ability for a winning club with a boatload of strikeouts expected to return next season. I see his 3.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a raised eyebrow of skepticism as both should be lower across another season with his skill set. There’s even more upside if he can find a better attack to LHBs, though there is concern that his former injury history catches up to him. I’m less concerned than others after two seasons of consistency and his new skills look like they’re here to stay. He’s safe with the ceiling you want. Get him.
6. Luis Castillo (SEA, RHP)
His four-seamer is a weird one. Despite having terrible vertical break and extension, the pitch is so often located upstairs with elite VAA that it became one of the best pitches in the majors. He gets a 20% SwStr rate to right-handers with only a small dip to lefties while earning plenty of strikes and great ICR rates. It may also be amplified by his sinker usage, a pitch he effectively gets inside to right-handers with a phenomenal 37% O-Swing rate, opening the door for his four-seamer to surprise with straighter action. Y’all know I love a good same-handed inside sinker.
The biggest change over the years is arguably his move away from the changeup toward sliders, which destroy right-handers but has some polish left to add against lefties. Castillo, please get the pitch away from the danger zone, where left-handers drop the barrel and easily crush the pitch. It’s why lefties returned a 40%+ ICR on sliders this year and if Castillo can avoid those mistakes on the breaker, he’ll soar even further.
His slowball isn’t completely gone, though. It finds its way against left-handers a decent amount of the time, but it’s more of a lateral break than dip these days, making it harder to pair with the four-seamer, diving outside moreso than the ideal location under the zone. It’s still effective, just not like that of Pablo López, whose mantra is “the change is always there“.
Repertoire aside, he has health and a solid situation in his favor as the ace of the Mariners. Expect another 30+ starts with contention for six frames consistently and a boatload of Wins as he piles on the strikeouts for yet another season. There will be days where the command isn’t quite there, but hot dang, he’s one of the sturdiest workhorses around. Security in early picks is everything.
7. George Kirby (SEA, RHP)
Kirby makes all the sense and none of them. Wait. His four-seamer is the prime example. It carried a 22% SwStr rate to right-handers, but also allowed a whopping 54% ICR to them as well – batters swung plenty and while they missed a ton, the mistakes were demolished. It was the opposite on the other side of the plate, however. Left-handers whiffed just 13% of the time to the four-seamer, but held a far smaller 36% ICR. It’s awfully weird.
Even stranger are the pitch’s characteristics. Kirby’s four-seamer features poor extension, poor iVB, and middling VAA, and yet its SwStr rate was 99th percentile. Location, location, location. And, you know, 96 mph heat. I actually think there’s another step here for Kirby’s approach with too many heaters falling middle-away to right-handers, while also finding the zone a little too much. His elite 42% O-Swing on four-seamers could be exploited more if he just pulls up everything just a touch more. And this is Kirby we’re talking about, one of the best command artists out there. He can do it.
The Mariners as a system seem to have a philosophy of pairing sinkers with four-seamers against same-handed batters and Kirby is no exception. The sinker appears just as often as the premier four-seamer when facing right-handers, and I’m massively impressed by its ability to generate outs and weak contact. There’s something to that philosophy and it’s a major reason for Kirby’s low walk rate and efficiency to go deeper into games. Its 39% O-Swing is bliss.
The breakers are where the true growth can be found. Kirby’s slider came along this year to jump nearly ten points in strike rate as it earned far more swings out of the zone, and I think there’s more in the future as his slider jumped to a 15% SwStr (not 10/11%!) in the second half of the season. It’ll get there.
The curve is fine. It’s a big hook that earns strikes early in the count and helps him save his fastballs as surprise pitches. I don’t anticipate a ton of growth here, but it helps, just like the splitter that had its moments and was introduced to help against left-handers. But ultimately, I don’t believe the curve should be leaned upon as a major option he’ll rely on consistently.
On that topic, Kirby suffers the same problem as his brethren: He struggles against left-handers as he’s without a proper changeup and lacks the skills to dominate gloveside with his full arsenal. It makes me wonder if a Kirby will experiment with a cutter to jam up-and-in, which would tunnel so well with his four-seamer upstairs. H*ck, we saw moments where his slider was THE FILTH and if he can pull the deGrom of landing that pitch down and inside consistently, the pitch will jump massively from its current sub 10% SwStr rate. If any pitcher can figure that out, it’s Kirby.
The low WHIP should return with his low walk rate and general skill of inhibiting hard contact, which could improve with a four-seamer adjustment next season + likely growth in his slider/nullifier to left-handers. That 23% strikeout rate has the potential for 30% if the slider jumps massively, though a 25/26% rate is more likely as he piles on the innings once again. Draft him with confidence – the floor is so dang high.
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR, RHP)
Gausman is going to allow plenty of hits and that alone makes him outside the Top 5 for me. Excuse me?! I understand why I’ve seen Gausman as the third SP off the board – 31+ starts in three straight seasons, averaging about 185 IP in each season, low-3s ERA marks, and 200+ strikeouts each year as well. The problem? A 1.24 WHIP and 1.18 WHIP the last two years and I don’t think it’s going away. Gausman is a simple man – he throws a four-seamer well into the zone for 70%+ strike rates and relies on his filthy splitter to fall out of it and demoralize batters everywhere.
That heater gets crushed, though. Left-handers boasted an ICR near 55% (Gasp!) on the pitch last year, while the 45% mark for RHBs was still a weight the splitter had to counteract. This issue isn’t going to disappear – it has haunted Gausman for a long time and catalyzes his poor BABIP marks each year. Yes, that splitter is filthy and keeps Gausman very much an ace, but Gausman needs another pitch to earn strikes as its sub 60% strike rates make it difficult for Gausman to keep pitches off barrels.
A small wrinkle is 2023’s stellar 31% strikeout rate that should fall with his four-seamer’s putaway rate climbing to a peak 24%+ clip last year (95th percentile!) despite similar CSW and SwStr rates. With his walk rate regressing after its astounding 4% rate in 2022, fewer strikeouts will translate to more walks and hits as well, compounding the issue.
I ask a simple question. What is the difference between Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola? Nola’s ERA is much worse! But Gausman’s WHIP is much worse. Oh snap. They’ll both have double-digit Wins and over 200 strikeouts. Is the gap between Nola and Gausman’s ERA more important than their WHIP difference? Sit with that and let Gausman go to someone else.
9. Zac Gallen (ARI, RHP)
Gallen’s entire approach stems from an unusual four-seamer. With its above-average vertical break mixed with a touch of cut action, the four-seamer thrives down in the zone as Gallen can place the pitch at the knees with ease, even surprising batters as the pitch slides back over the arm-side edge for frozen strikeouts. His consistency extends to all four of his secondaries, which have specific roles and stick to them. Both the changeup and curveball feature elite loLoc rates as they tunnel well with his fastball, creating havoc for hitters failing to recognize if the pitch will stay afloat in the zone or dive into the dirt. His slider and cutter are routinely gloveside with few errors, though there is room to grow (especially with the slider) to incorporate them frequently in each start. What does it mean for fantasy? That Gallen has the toolset to go 6-7 frames every game with a strikeout-per-inning and upside for more if at least one secondary is cooking. He’ll have stretches of both highs and lows, but with the Arizona defense supporting him and a history of high volume, Gallen should be an all-around producer once again. He’s safe without the “#1 fantasy pitcher” ceiling others inside the Top 15 carry.
10. Logan Webb (SFG, RHP)
Webb is the best version of a sinker/changeup guy you’ll find. What about Hendricks?! What about having more velocity, a changeup that moves more, and a decent slider? OKAY FINE. The slowball gets all the attention, though the sinker is what makes it so great. Webb earned 30+% called strikes with the pitch against both LHBs and RHBs, living glove-side and mostly down, as the pitch looks exactly like his changeup out of the hand. With his elite extension, batters can’t decide between the 92 mph heater or 87 mph changeup, resulting in a ton of stolen strikes and a whopping 50% O-Swing on his changeup to both sides of the plate. It’s stupid good.
Now that Webb has embraced that changeup to the levels of 50%+ usage (we saw multiple games where threw over 60 changeups and they hold a special place in my heart), Webb is earning more swings out of the zone, raising its strike rate to massive 70%+ marks and effectively bringing his walk rate to a minuscule sub 4% clip.
It was brilliant though he still had some warts. Webb’s hit rate is still high at 8.4 H/9 as his BABIP is destined to hover around .300 with his massive groundball tendencies. If you’re like me and believe his changeup and sinker won’t perform quite at this level, then expect the walk rate to rise as the hits keep coming like 90’s radio. Meanwhile, there’s still concern about his slider turning into a sweeper last year as he’s lost the gyro pitch of 2021. I hope Webb can find a slider that works well against righties and at least decent against lefties, though I’m not sure we’ll see it.
Workhorses are hard to come by and Webb looks destined to go 200 IP again, health permitting (can we say he’s out of the woodwork there?), making his low strikeout rate manageable given how deep he goes into games – he did earn 194 strikeouts last year, even if it took 216 innings to eclipse 190. That changeup and sinker will make Webb a high-floor option but sadly without the ceiling of the elites as he lacks a third pitch to help him miss bats. Given the slew of concerns across the Top 25 starters, Webb has risen up slowly in my ranks due to this high floor. Get the assured production.
11. Aaron Nola (PHI, RHP)
We should expect Nola to be better than his 4.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last season, though I’m a bit conflicted on how much. You could point to his career-high 1.49 HR/9 and call it a day, but there was much more going on than a handful of longballs ruining his day. Nola’s strikeout rate dropped from routine flirtations with 30% to ~25%, while he allowed hits at a higher rate and saw his SwStr rate fall below 13% for the first time since 2019. There’s some stuff to discuss.
I loved watching Nola feature sinkers inside plenty more to right-handers (jumping from a sub 20% rate to 40%+) as he increased its usage, helping him keep batters off his four-seamers, a pitch that jumped from a 40% ICR to 53% last year. There’s yer problem. Sure, the four-seamer allowed more extra-base hits and was punished more often, but that may have been a product of his curve, cutter, and change all degrading as well. The curve lost horizontal bite and featured an average CSW after years of being the poster child of CSW success, his cutter was used more in two-strike counts, but struggled to earn punchouts, and his changeup was pummeled in its rare appearances.
The weirdest part of Nola? He insists on keeping his four-seamers away from batters on both sides of the plate, yet he features elite extension and elite VAA marks on the pitch. He could elevate it with success. Sure, the iVB isn’t what you want it to be, but like Wheeler and even without the same velocity, I’m surprised Nola settles from the called strike game outside so often – it’s not a shock he allowed so much poor contact with those locations.
I should clarify, this tactic worked against lefties with a sub 35% ICR that paired nicely with a curveball that had batters fishing out of the zone over half the time. Changeups are still a weak spot, but it’s clear right-handers were the problem and that four-seamer adjustment upstairs paired with sinkers inside (and out, sure) and cutters + curves away should do the trick.
I’m not confident we’ll see that version of Nola, though, and with his changeup still fighting for relevancy merged with that cutter failing to be the solution to his problems, I have some worries about Nola. That said, he’s another workhorse destined to flash 200 strikeouts again with double-digit Wins and a productive WHIP, and there are few pitchers with that security. Draft him as your SP #2 and be prepared to endure passing headaches. He’ll balance it out, don’t worry.
Tier 3 – The Risky Aces
This tier and the next are all about what you’re looking for. I generally want to favor the safer floors of Tier 4 when chasing SP early in drafts, however these arms all have stronger paths to finishing comfortably inside the Top 10 SP, or at least are expected to have a higher level of quality per inning and can pair with a replacement arm off the wire if they fall to injury.
12. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD, RHP)
It’s hard for me to write about Yamamoto since I don’t have the same data to refer to, nor have I had the chance to watch him nearly as much as everyone else inside these ranks. From what I gather, Yamamoto sports a great 95+ mph four-seamer, a legit slider, curve, and splitter, excellent command, and at the ripe age of 24 years old, he’s in his prime to excel over the course of the season. Throw in a fantastic situation with the Dodgers and you have yourself a relatively safe arm who can carry a 25%+ strikeout rate with strong ratios and a bucketload of Wins. The biggest problem is his volume: The Dodgers are sure to implement a six-man rotation as much as possible to give Yamamoto rest and likely limit him to roughly 150 frames (remember, they signed him to a ten-year deal and Japanese players are used to longer rest). The capped volume is my biggest concern about Yamamoto as he’ll have to be 33% better than another pitcher tossing nearly 200 frames to match the value. Considering that we’ll likely see some growing pains in the transition as well, I’m likely a little tepid on Yamamoto relative to the market, but it’s clear he’ll help your fantasy teams plenty in the year ahead.
13. Bobby Miller (LAD, RHP)
One of my tenets for finding value starting pitchers is finding a pitcher who does three things: 1) Has a strong floor where you know you won’t drop them during the year 2) Has a ceiling they haven’t reached yet to make them a top tier SP, and 3) Is primed to go six-innings per start, every five days. Miller ticks all of these boxes…except for the “every five days” part, though that may change as the season develops. After all, six-man rotations are like The Fellowship of the Ring – it starts with a large crew with idealistic ambitions, and by the end, it’s just two guys barely surviving.
I absolutely adore Miller’s floor. He pumps a pair of 99 mph heaters with a trio of secondary offerings that could potentially expand to four if he distinctly separates his gyro slider from a low 90s cutter, in addition to a legit curve and developing changeup. That’s a six-pitch mix where each weapon could improve in a second season. The Dodgers have this whole thing with preventing their pitchers from throwing their four-seamers upstairs, even when they come with all the pitch shape marks that would indicate success upstairs. Miller has it – velocity (duh), elite extension, above-average iVB, and above-average VAA – and yet his hiLoc% to RHBs was under 40%. WHY. Because the slugging percentage of his lower fastballs was better than his high fastballs. I DON’T CARE. Miller should be throwing high heat, leaning on the sinker to continue earning 40% O-Swing inside to RHBs, then focusing on refining his slider down-and-glove-side.
Ah right, the slider. It’s a pitch that was shockingly pedestrian last season despite absurd Stuff+ and PLV marks (5.45 PLV vs RHBs, 5.77 vs. LHBs yet neither held a 15%+ SwStr) and as a gyro slider, Miller can go the Gerrit Cole approach to LHBs while also sporting a better curve and changeup to support it. Hot DANG. Just get the slider a little more tempting under the zone than inside and you’ve got yourself a strikeout stew.
Against RHBs, Miller constantly tugged the pitch away and failed to get into a proper rhythm to devastate batters. I wonder if making a specific distinction between the pitch as a cutter for strikes and the gyro for whiffs may help him here, and with Miller’s arsenal and ability to throw a ton of strikes, the ceiling is sky high.
I didn’t even mention the curve, the pitch Miller turned to most often as his ole reliable when keeping guys off his heater. He kept it low about 70% of the time and it helped plenty, though I think the slider has more potential as a debilitating offering. In fact, making the slider the main breaker would amplify the effect of the curve as well, and hooooo boy there’s so much potential here.
Against LHBs, there is a heavy serving of changeups as well, a pitch that can have great results, though Miller does struggle to earn enough strikes with it to truly take down batters. Miller could simply be elite if he’s able to raise its 57% strike rate close to 65% while chucking it closer to 25-30% of the time as its sub 20% ICR was dastardly to LHBs. It makes sense – his heaters came in 11-12 mph harder and batters weren’t prepared for the slowball.
There’s so much to like about Bobby and I can’t help but rank him higher than others given the wide range of pitches and the massive potential in his sophomore season. The true ding is the expected volume, though he threw 140 frames last year (including minors and postseason) and the Dodgers may be looking to Miller to become the “every five days” workhorse during the year when injuries arise. I’m going for it and not looking back.
14. Cole Ragans (KCR, LHP)
Swoon. How I adore you. Ragans is The Unicorn to me with five different pitches that all excel when executed effectively, and it allows him to take a repertoire filled with sub 5.00 PLV pitches (and a glorious 5.46 on his slider) and get more out of them as he intertwines them across at-bats. The 10%+ walk rate is the most common gripe against Ragans and it should be – walks are bad, obviously – though it’s not as much of a product of volatility than it is Ragans’ desire to nibble around the zone instead of firing pitches inside the zone with reckless abandon.
That said, Ragans is missing polish on his command that would take him to the next level. His four-seamer’s sub-65% strike rate got him into more holes than ideal, while the curveball needs to find the zone a little more often. The safe bet is that we see more of the same here, though given Ragans’ absurd growth last year (velocity bump and new slider in July and NOT because of the Royals), these tweaks may come from more work with Tread Athletics this off-season.
I implore you to watch this video covering his breakout start against the Red Sox. You’ll see the cutter dancing inside, surprise changeups in unorthodox counts, elevated upper-90s heaters, backdoor curves, and that vicious slider. It’s so dang fun.
But the health! And the Royals! Ah, yes. Health is weird as the “two TJS” isn’t quite right – he underwent Tommy John surgery, they screwed it up, so he did it a second time – and he’s been healthy otherwise. I’m not quite sure I’d ding him more than others just for that.
But the Royals…that’s a legit point. The defense isn’t the problem – they ranked fourth in Outs Above Average as a crew last season – and, to be frank, Ragans was unfortunate last year with some plays in the field that made some of his starts linger. Linger…ah! Like the managers letting him pitch too long! RIGHT. It’s weird for me to give a negative connotation to a long leash, but the Royals ruined many Ragans starts by keeping him in games far longer than he should and it’s maddening. You have to hope that gets corrected…right?
And lastly, I have zero faith in the Royals as a crew to help fix Ragans in-season when things go awry. It’s possible Tread Athletics can still be in his ear and make those tweaks with him, but it’s a big unknown at the moment. In the end, Ragans carries more risk than others in the same range, though his ceiling of an SP #1 is very real if he’s able to iron out some command kinks. It was a small 66.2 IP sample of Ragans as a comfortable starter and armed with his new slider, but a 2.70 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and 32% strikeout rate should give you a proper glimpse of what could be. Sigh, make sure to get your rAGAns shirt before his first start and join the fun.
15. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL, RHP)
Those who want to talk about Grayson and his 2023 as a whole are not going to jive with me. If you recall, Grayson got the call in the spring, struggled immensely, then was brilliant after he returned on July 17th, including his shaky first game back: 2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate across 76.2 IP and 13 starts. I’m not saying those numbers are what we should expect, but the floor of spring can easily be handwaved and understood as jitters and getting acclimated to the bigs. Use the second-half Grayson as your baseline.
That version of Grayson has all the weapons, and I’m simply not sure how he’ll use them. His four-seamer passes the eye test with elite velocity (occasionally above 100 mph) and elite extension + great VAA, though I worry about his approach and mediocre iVB, which made the pitch return a sub-12% SwStr during his hot stretch, even with an average 98 mph velocity. I was a bit surprised to see Grayson utilize the pitch over half the time, while also turning away from a pure hiLoc approach, though when he did eclipse 60%+ high locations, whiffs came with it.
Meanwhile, his changeup is so dang good and could be even better. It has a 14+ mph difference from the fastball at just 84 mph, and when he was able to get the dang thing in the lower third or below, the pitch thrived. Its 23% usage isn’t justified to me when it carries a 48% O-Swing and near 70% strike rate with an elite 23% ICR. That’s stupid. It needs to be thrown more, which will also help the heater as batters become more threatened by the slower velocity.
And yes, I’m going to add a fourth paragraph for Grayson because there’s too much to discuss. There’s even one more area of growth: his breakers. I’m shocked to report he went slider just 14% of the time in those thirteen starts, with 9% curves as well. A combined 23% breaking ball usage for a power-arm when both pitches express legit whiffability (and higher than 60% strike rates!) is baffling, to say the least. It all makes for a pitcher who is growing in the major leagues and has another ceiling to hit, as long as he can make the right adjustments with both approach and locations to take full advantage of his repertoire. My biggest concern lies in that heater, though. If we see Grayson continue to rely on it over half the time, it makes for a bit of worry as it didn’t miss bats at an elite level (and, you know, was tagged quite often). Believe in the sophomore improvements for young, promising arms and you’ll generally succeed, especially when those adjustments are more tangible than “throw harder” or “learn a new pitch.” I’m going for it.
16. Tyler Glasnow (LAD, RHP)
Glasnow is legit and we all know it. Even with immense cut action, his four-seamer still misses bats when elevated…which shockingly happens less than 40% of the time (remember when he was the poster boy for “I want to throw high fastballs”?). His slider is the real winner of the arsenal, saving Glasnow from the heater/curve days of inconsistency with not only a 65%+ strike rate, but also a 20% SwStr rate. His curve gets a lot of discussion with its minuscule BAA, but it’s a product of its usage. Used over 60% of the time in two-strike counts, it returns far more strikeouts than balls in play, especially with it bouncing in the dirt for a ball nearly half the time. In the end, the strikeouts and low WHIP will be there, and it’s a matter of not losing his fastball and slider command start-to-start, opening the door for punishment – despite the whiffability, his pitches have middling ICR rates. That is, when batters actually make contact, they fare well against Glasnow, and it’s irritating.
Of course, the real discussion is volume. Glasnow’s 120 frames in 2023 was the peak of his career, with much more than his TJS holding him back over the years. With the Dodgers known for being careful with taxing their arms, it would be unwise to expect 150 frames in the year ahead. And yet, he tallied 162 punchouts in those limited 2023 innings, making the floor (paired with the arm you get off the wire!) a much more palatable experience than most. I wrestled with placing Glasnow up at #12 or down here at #16 with the former argument being that in 12-teamers, the replacement level is high enough to justify the time he spends on the IL. However, I prefer the higher ceiling of innings from the young arms about, while each sport 30% strikeout potential as well. Please trust your own gut here and don’t listen to me if you believe I’m overthinking the injury risk on Glasnow. Gosh dang I hate predicting injury risk & volume in the preseason. IT’S NO FUN Y’ALL. Like rostering Glasnow in August when he’s on the IL? Ayyyyyyy yoooo.
Tier 4 – Savings Accounts
I’m likely going to live in this tier a bit as I see plenty of safety in ability where I’d be shocked if I felt as if I didn’t get value from them in 2024.
17. Kyle Bradish (BAL, RHP)
Bradish can be better and it’s been swirling in my mind all off-season. Think peak Kluber and you have something close to Bradish with a 90 mph slider that is disgusting as one of the best pitches in the game and a curveball that should be thrown far more than it is now. What shocks me is the low strike rate on his slider, hovering 62% instead of 65-70% like his curveball. Up the usage on both (curves are more used for LHB, sliders for RHB, and all I ask is ¿por qué no los dos?) and feature that slide piece for strikes and you’ll have yourself a glorious time.
Meanwhile, his four-seamer shouldn’t be called as such. It’s a cutter dangit, and I really hope Bradish begins to realize he should be treating it like one. His current gameplan is to backdoor it against left-handers (which is fine, but he can really soar like Mariano’s if he finds the skills to bust batters inside and saw off bats), while right-handers see the pitch far less often, and it normally reside upstairs…the place a pitch like Bradish’s shouldn’t live. Instead, why not go down-and-away to set up the breakers or get the end of the bat? The sinker is used more for right-handers, and it lands upstairs more often than you’d want and instead needs to sit inside and off the plate more.
I should mention, this entire discussion is post-May Bradish, where he realized Oh dang, I should stop leaning so hard on my four-seamer and was brilliant thereafter (Starting June 8th: 2.31 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 27% strikeout rate across 120.2 IP in 20 starts. Yeah.). Change is clearly possible, especially for a fella still early in his MLB career. Throw in a winning club and a blank check to go as long as he wants each start, well you’ve got yourself a nice stew brewing. There is 30% strikeout upside if he leans more on those breakers and adds that last lick of polish while figuring out the proper way to utilize the odd attributes of that four-seamer cutter.
18. Zach Eflin (TBR, RHP)
I went back and forth on Eflin writing this blurb. On one hand, it was a true peak season with his 31 starts equating his previous seasons combined, while his WHIP fell to a glistening 1.02 and he boasted a 26%+ strikeout for just the second time in his career. The Rays certainly helped his case – 16 Wins, improved defense, a new cutter, and reliable pitching development – but the question remains: Is this a lookout point on a plateau or a precarious hike? I’m beginning to lean into the former. Eflin’s command is clearly there with a phenomenal 4% walk rate mixed with an ability to mitigate hard contact. In fact, there are few pitchers in the majors who can boast an 80th+ percentile ICR and 95th percentile strike rate.
The arsenal is as refined as we’ve ever seen from Eflin. He flounders right-handers with a flurry of weapons: sinkers busted inside, an elite cutter and elite curveball, and a wise choice to take his poor four-seamer and save it just for surprise two-strike elevated heaters, returning a 92nd percentile putaway rate on the pitch. Left-handers give me a little more concern: Cutters are dastardly up-and-in, but the rest of the arsenal doesn’t cast fear. The hook does a fine job, but the sinker is questionable and without a strong changeup, left-handers can lean pull against Eflin and fight off more pitches than ideal.
What I see is a command arm who has found ways to put away batters better than ever. I imagine he’s quality as long as he’s on the bump, though his WHIP and strikeout tallies are likely taking a small hit in 2024, making room for his 3.50 ERA to climb closer to 4.00 with some worse luck. Throw in a history of questionable health (who doesn’t at this point?) and Eflin is a solid arm but not a “must-have” for the year ahead.
19. Joe Musgrove (SDP, RHP)
What a weird year for Musgrove. Odd injuries prevented him from gathering a groove and limited him to under 100 frames, making his issues with his slider early in the year last longer than ideal, while finding strikes with his curve became a season-long task that he never quite wrangled. It forced a dramatic upswing of cutter strikes, an attack that worked against LHBs (small sample?) but was granted few favors against RHBs.
His fastballs are a curious bunch, too. Musgrove does exactly what you should do with your sinker – throw it exclusively to RHBs and only inside/off the plate – and was gifted a brilliant 19% ICR across 66% strike with it as a result. I adore this, even at just 10% usage. It’s such a valuable weapon, especially when you have Musgrove’s four-seamer, a pitch with atrocious pitch shape. When uncovering its abysmal iVB, extension, and VAA, I expected to find demolition against right-handers and I was correct: 50%+ ICR rates in 2021 and 2022. And yet, that mark fell to 29% ICR in 2023. WHAT. Yeah, I know. Weird.
Musgrove’s secret was his command and utilization of it. He saved the four-seamer for two-strike counts often and did a fabulous job elevating it as a surprise offering, tunneling exceptionally well off the common cutter and his two breakers to squeeze more from the pitch than anyone could imagine. Against lefties, the pitch painted the inside edge and above the zone elegantly, boasting a magnificent 33% ICR – a rate any starter would dream of for their four-seamer against off-handed batters. I’m not ready to expect this level of performance across a full 180 IP season in 2024, but I believe that Musgrove is finding a way to use his four-seamer better to prevent another 50%+ ICR season. H*ck, I’d take a 40% ICR with his other pitches picking up the slack.
I paint Musgrove as a safe pitcher in 2024, even if he endured an array of injuries from shoulder soreness to elbow bursitis – I see that as more of a result of his wonky throwing schedule that forced his body to do more than usual. His slider should be a solid offering once again, his changeup + curve will do work against left-handers, and his cutter + fastballs earn all the strikes to keep the walk rate low and, hopefully, hold a sub 8.0 hits-per-nine like he had the previous three seasons. It may be too much to ask for 180 IP given the bombardment of injuries last year, but 160 IP, a strikeout per inning, and solid ratios as he’s healthy and good to go for Opening Day seems right to me. Just nibble a little better with the cutter and get that curve back in the zone, okay?
20. Framber Valdez (HOU, LHP)
Valdez is relatively safe. His situation is ideal as the ace of an Astros crew that will back him up both with the glove and the bat, while getting as long of a leash as any to go deep into games consistently as one of the true workhorses in the majors. I just wish I could be more enamored by his arsenal, which is powered by a sinker that consumes LHBs with ease, but took a large step back against RHBs in 2023 as the pitch lost a significant amount of sink in favor of horizontal ride. It resulted in far fewer grounders, a leap to a 42%+ ICR, and swapped many singles for doubles.
That concern would be nullified if his curveball, changeup, or cutter took steps forward, but none of them particularly excite me. The big hook still holds an impressive 20% SwStr rate, but a 60% strike rate with a 35-40% ICR isn’t the elite breaker we want it to be. It’s a solid #2 pitch, just not the offering that Framber needs to elevate him into Top 10 SP territory.
Meanwhile, the cutter has its moments acting as a back-foot slider, though he made mistakes with it that turned him away from the pitch in the second half. I’d absolutely love it if Framber developed a proper Miley-esque cutter to get inside to right-handers, then use the more gyro-slider version to earn whiffs to both lefties and righties (for what it’s worth, Framber did have two distinctly different cutters last year as you can tell by the massive range of vertical movement here).
His changeup may improve as well. He upped its usage to near 18% against right-handers and while it needs to land under the zone more often, it was a solid offering to add to the mix.
Put together, Valdez has little issue against left-handers (even if his cutter should earn more strikes) and can run into stretches during the year when he can’t land his secondaries resulting in right-handers lacing sinker after sinker. As a whole, Framber will go through highs and lows and likely hover in the 1.15 – 1.20 WHIP range with his groundball tendencies + unreliable secondary pitch to carry a 65%+ strike rate. He’s safe and there’s always room for safety.
21. Kodai Senga (NYM, RHP)
Senga Senga Senga. The man who was horribly inefficient for the first 12 weeks of the year then cruised afterward for a 2.74 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 30% strikeouts rate, and 9% walk rate across 101.2 IP in 17 starts. That’s the good stuff. I find it awfully difficult to assess Senga as it felt too good to be true. His 6.8 H/9 for the year is an obvious peak (or is it a trough?) that is sure to worsen in the year ahead; his splitter is deadly, but its low strike rate puts pressure on his four-seamer and cutter to find strikes and avoid damage (again, hit rate has to rise); and said cutter performed too dang well for a pitch that was often located well inside the zone for me to believe it’s destined to avoid damage regularly through another season.
I also have concerns about Senga’s overall command. Watching him pitch on both stellar and poor days, the unreliability of location makes the pitching fan in me squirm. Each at-bat comes with at least a pitch that wildly misses its spot, and while he often can execute the pitch that gets the out, it’s a tightrope traversal similar to Blake Snell that I don’t like trusting for the full year.
All of that said, I do wonder if his skills can improve to combat these signs of regression. His four-seamer should be earning more whiffs than it currently does, but his inability to elevate and take advantage of its shape holds it back, allowing right-handers to slug it for an ICR over 50% in 2023. Ouch. Meanwhile, there’s work to be done on the slider – if it takes off, then Senga may become a more reliable arm who doesn’t need to rely on his daily feel of the Ghost Fork or hope that batters still fail to wrangle his cutter in the zone.
There’s a thought his second season will be smoother after needing time to get used to pitching in the states, including tossing a different ball than overseas. In addition, Senga could have the stamina now to start every five days, opening the door for a 180 IP season, if he’s able to keep the efficiency he had in the second half. I have my concerns that he’s destined for a 1.20 WHIP and a 3.60 ERA or so, but the strikeout rate will continue to be 25%+ with the filthy Ghost Fork, and considering Senga shouldn’t be a detriment for your ratios, those strikeouts elevate him into a sturdy arm that helps each team he’s on. Sadly, I’d rather chase a pitcher with a higher ceiling that doesn’t carry the baggage of an inevitably high walk rate and far worse hit rate.
22. Max Fried (ATL, LHP)
Fried is one of the more underrated command specialists in the majors. Armed with five pitches, Fried dances across the plate with four-seamers gloveside that carry cut-action, sinkers armside, a big hook that held batters to a stupid low 22% ICR in 2023, a changeup that has woken up for two seasons with a 20% SwStr rate, and a reliable slider for strikes that batters fail to punish. It’s why his highest ERA of the last four seasons is 3.04 as he continues to produce WHIP rates below 1.15 and a strikeout rate that pushed 25% in 2023. The man is a rock…when healthy. He started just 14 games last year after a forearm strain took him out for months + a blister formed at the end of the season. All signs point to a healed arm, though the concern is sure to linger through draft season.
Picking Fried is a pick for quality per inning. You’re going to get strong ratios + Wins with a strikeout per inning when he does start, the only question is how much we’ll actually see. It makes him a better play in shallower leagues than deep, but if all signs are green in March, you have to imagine his “baked-in injury risk” will suddenly fade.
23. Freddy Peralta (MIL, RHP)
Quality hasn’t been the concern for Peralta since 2019 – it’s always been the health and 165.2 IP from Peralta was a glorious surprise that we shouldn’t expect for another season when injuries have haunted him for years. That said, Peralta’s 2023 wasn’t smooth sailing. We saw a 4.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for Peralta across his first thirteen games before he went berserk and turned into one of the best pitchers in fantasy across the next four months: 3.21 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 36% strikeout rate across 95.1 IP and 17 starts. There he is.
The question will always come down to rhythm and earning strikes. Peralta’s cross-body delivery helps him get extra deception on his slider while amplifying the low arm angle for his high heater, though it’s not that simple. Peralta is mostly a two-pitch arm against right-handers, where his fastball doesn’t land upstairs nearly as much as it does against left-handers, and where his slider can’t be relied upon as much as he needs it. Meanwhile, left-handers get a filthy changeup that earned plenty of outs last year even with a pedestrian 60% strike rate, and a curveball that did its job (mostly) inside the zone. The canvas is splattered with effective at-bats against left-handers and a grind against right-handers who can mostly guess against the two-pitch pitcher.
I’m not buying the second-half surge of Peralta due to the same complications arriving against right-handers and his necessity for health and rhythm to produce at the high level we saw last year (with the early floor still present). He’s obviously going to be great for a portion of the year and he’ll help any roster he’s on, though the nickname of Professor Chaos still reigns, and unfortunately I have to pass on jumping for a pitcher in the early rounds who is destined to come with anxiety.
Tier 5 – The Shiny Squirrels
They get a ton of buzz, but the floor is lower than it may seem, forcing me to place them underneath a collection of pitchers who I have much more faith to produce consistently when they start in 2024
24. Eury Pérez (MIA, RHP)
If Pérez is the same pitcher in 2024, I think we’ll be a bit disappointed. His curveball and slider showcased elite SwStr and ICR rates, but their shape is highly suspect while their low strike rates forced his four-seamer to boast a 70%+ strike rate and allow over 50% ICR to right-handed batters. That is horrendous and awfully surprising given the pitch’s fantastic shape, velocity, and low arm angle. The problem lies in its approach with a 15th percentile hiLoc% of just 41%. Ahhh, so batters are sitting four-seamers and getting them comfortably in the zone? Exactly. Wait, that can be exploited. Now you understand – if Pérez adjusts to go “BSB” and focus on keeping his four-seamer upstairs instead of East-West, he could get a massive upswing in whiffs from his ~10/11% SwStr to 15% and above.
But it’s not that easy. Pérez’s youth is not just in his age (Gasp), but his skill level to locate effectively around the zone. I’m very guilty of expecting that to come easily for Pérez over time, but upon reflection of the year ahead, I reluctantly have been rescinding my love for domination in 2024. I watch some Eury and have concern that his fastball command is far from polished, while the breakers don’t have the same electricity as other secondaries around.
It’s absolutely possible Eury elects the BSB route and develops the command to do so, but will his breaking ball shape improve with it? And are the Marlins an organization that embraces high heaters? I’m not sure, but I sure hope so. He could be SP #1 if he unlocks the command, especially if he figures out how to get on top of his changeup in the process (that slow ball was terribly inconsistent in 2023). There’s more risk than I’d like with this pick, forcing me to sit on my hands in most cases for one more season.
25. Tarik Skubal (DET, LHP)
Here I was in October, fawning over Skubal. His four-seamer’s results were legendary across his small 80-inning sample, and his 29% SwStr + 40% CSW changeup was a farce saved for party small talk. How could he not be a clear Top 20 SP next year with these skills? Because they may not be true. WHAAAAA. Yeah, after looking more into Skubal and watching his games, I’m less encouraged. I’m still a believer that he’s a solid add for your teams and will help throughout the year, but nothing close to the ridiculous marks of 2023.
Let’s get it out of the way – Skubals’ final opponents were: @CLE, CHC, NYY, @CWS, CWS, @LAA, @OAK, and KCR where he held a 1.88 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 37% strikeout rate, and 4% walk rate. Yes, you need to take advantage of the opportunities given to you, but these matchups are heavily influencing our perception of Skubal’s skill set, which isn’t as formidable on paper. His four-seamer’s 96 mph velocity fell closer to 95 mph at the end, and it doesn’t come with elite iVB, VAA, or extension to suggest it’s deserving of a 99th percentile O-Swing & Strike rate. His changeup was unreal and will still be a great weapon, just not that good. And the slider? Well, that’s a work in progress. It held a 12% SwStr rate with below-average movement and is a major need for polish in 2024.
What I saw was a pitcher who overperformed, has good but not exceptional command, needs to improve his breaker, and will not overwhelm batters nearly as often with his four-seamer in the year ahead. This is awfully harsh, Nick. I know, I’m sorry. I don’t like it either and I hope the healthy off-season allows Tarik to weld his seams and cement himself as a Cy Young candidate in 2024. He’s not there yet.
26. Logan Gilbert (SEA, RHP)
What a weird season for Gilbert. His 2022 featured a four-seamer that boasted a 15% SwStr to LHB (just 10% to RHB…?) as he was grasping at straws to figure out a changeup and any reliable breaker. He flipped everything on its head in 2023, with a worse four-seamer (9% SwStr to both LHB and RHB), but he suddenly transformed a slider that was struggling to hit a 60% strike rate into his ole reliable, as it boasted a strike rate about 70%, limiting its ICR massively, and it was suddenly thrown half of the time in some contests. An introduction of a splitter in the first half helped as well, creating not only another weapon against left-handers, but a 21% SwStr pitch for right-handers as well.
Anxiety coalesces around that four-seamer, unfortunately. It lost an inch of vertical movement, and carrying a sub 10% SwStr without good command as it gets consistently pummeled is not the Gilbert we signed up for. I’m going to believe that he’ll work on the pitch this off-season and make some tweaks, though the ceiling of a dominant six-frames at least once a week from Gilbert seems a bit more difficult to envision at the moment. Even if the four-seamer returns to 2022 form, will the heater + slider be enough to carry him? Nick, the splitter. It disappeared in the second half and we know how volatile they can be.
In the end, I think what Gilbert gives you will be good enough to roster all year, but it’s asking a little too much for him to be a legit SP #2 in your 15-teamers. SP #3 in 12-teamers sounds about right.
27. Jesús Luzardo (MIA, RHP)
I’m torn on Luzardo. On one hand, his hot stretches are electric as any, with a 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate across a fifteen-game stretch in the heart of 2023. This performance is supported by a 96/97 mph heater that he spots upstairs and gloveside (ideal for a southpaw), as well as by a pair of secondaries in his change and slider that both miss plenty of bats. However, his command can be finicky, without the stuff to demand results when he leaves them over the plate. His four-seamer is a sub-10% SwStr offering even with its above-average locations, while the slider was often hung in the zone and crushed to the tune of a 48% ICR – 6th percentile among all sliders. Sure, its .494 BABIP and .517 BACON will improve next year, but it won’t be a massive pendulum swing to bring his 8.2 H/9 dramatically down to its 6.2 mark in 2022. There’s also Luzardo’s health history that he overcame in 2023 for nearly 180 frames and it’s no given he can go 32 starts for another season. The end result will help managers with his strikeout rate at the very least, though the ratios may take many turns along the way. Maybe feature more changeups, fewer zone sliders, and stop throwing four-seamers away to left-handers?
28. Blake Snell (FA, LHP)
Even in a Cy Young year with a 5.8 H/9, Snell had a 1.19 WHIP. I was as large of a voice as anyone outlining why Snell deserved the Cy Young last season and how his 13% walk rate was by design, but the fact of the matter is that the skill and rhythm required to pull it off just doesn’t get repeated for a full season. Will Snell help your fantasy teams? Absolutely. Will it be nearly what we got last year where he held a 1.20 ERA across nineteen games to end the year? …No? Nothing gets past you.
How did he get it done? Snell’s near seven feet of extension help, especially on his heater that comes in with a terrible VAA, but paired with 96 mph velocity and 17.5 inches of iVB, the pitch does excel when he locates it upstairs, executing the, ahem, BSB, but you know what’s bonkers? Snell’s four-seamer’s hiLoc% was just 43.5%, good for 18th percentile among all four-seamers. HE COULDN’T DO THE THING HE COINED.
And that four-seamer, despite its iVB, velocity, and extension, returned a blistering 49% ICR on the year due to its scattershot command and steep angle to the plate. And somehow, this whole thing worked. This makes no sense. I know. I KNOW.
The other half of the BSB is traditionally a curve or slider and Snell certainly got those pitches low – each returned 98th+ percentile loLoc% – while their contact rates were best in the majors. He kept it down, batters swung, and rarely made contact. However, they earned few strikes. Snell’s slider? 45% strike rate. Curve? 56%. No wonder he walked so many batters.
Over the years, the one pitch I’ve been against is Snell’s changeup. The pitch routinely held poor strike rates without the SwStr marks of his breakers and I was thrilled to see it reduced to just 6% against RHB in 2022. But here was Snell, struggling to earn strikes on his breakers in early 2023 and the slowball came out of the cage to have far-and-away its greatest season with a 25% SwStr and 66% strike rate against RHB, refusing to throw a single one against LHB. The savior of 2023.
What does it all mean? My interpretation is that Snell’s four-seamer and breaking ball command is better than the zone rates will tell you – he’s intentionally nibbling and avoiding the heart of the plate – but it’s not good enough to walk this tightrope another season, especially one that isn’t a contract year and without the strong Padres defense behind him. Throw in the likely anxiety-riddled spring as he tries to find his footing + the health track record that held him underneath 130 IP every year from 2019 onward until last year’s run. It’s just too much risk for me to take, especially when ceiling comes with a WHIP of at least 1.20.
Tier 6 – The Path Not Taken
You’re going to regret drafting and not drafting some of these names and that’s just the nature of the beast. I can see how many have breakout seasons, and while their realistic floors are still being rostered on your teams, they are just a step or two away from being sent to the wire.
29. Justin Steele (CHC, LHP)
I’m out on Steele because of one number. His four-seamer (it’s a cutter dangit. Seriously, the most glove-side movement and drop on any four-seamer. IT’S A CUTTER) in 2022 and 2023 were both crushed by left-handers. What, like a 40% ICR? 45%? Ummmm, 56% ICR. It’s a cutter, after all, and unless you have a wonderful one like Aaron Civale, cutters generally don’t work well against same-handed batters. His slider stepped up for a slightly higher strike rate and better mitigation of damage, but left-handers are a major problem for Steele, and outside of a new pitch entirely for him to master, I don’t see how that problem goes away.
But he just had a great season with left-handers crushing his fastball! That’s a great point and maybe I’m overreacting. That cutter was well spotted to jam right-handers, as it should, while the slider was solid (not elite) against them, too. It’s just not enough and thus overly reliant on the Cubs defense to bail him out – he’s a groundball pitcher given his emphasis on cutters and sliders and downward movement – and that ICR is translating more to burners than lifted flyballs, but hot dang it feels so precarious.
He’s not an elite strikeout arm, either. It was good and relied on volume to flirt with 180 strikeouts this year, but why not go for José Berríos or Merrill Kelly instead for far cheaper? I see 2023 as a peak for Steele with a massive flaw that doesn’t have a path toward getting fixed. He tossed far more strikes and earned more chases out of the zone with the cutter inside to right-handers to stave off the walks, and when he was gassed by the end of the year, the wheels heavily fell off. It seems like too little reward for the risk.
30. Sonny Gray (STL, RHP)
Sonny is a perfect example of why I am forcing myself to split analyzing pitch-type metrics based on LHB & RHB. David Cone emphasized it with Gray constantly, and the numbers show two different stories.
With cut action on his four-seamer, Gray was able to steal 25-30% called strikes with sinkers over the plate far more than your typical starter. It looks like poor location on paper as he rarely jams them inside, but when combining it with his four-seamer and cutter (the cutter acts like a standard slider, really), batters have difficulty pulling the trigger when Sonny’s sinker starts along the outside edge or further.
Once fastballs navigate Sonny deeper into counts, he whips out his devastating sweeper, a pitch that gets featured in two-strike counts almost 2/3 of the time, and has massive sweep and drop, boasting a huge 23% SwStr rate. The trick is getting to that count, however, and I wonder if incorporating more than 11% curveballs can get him there – even if it had a poor 44% ICR rate last year. Just don’t hang as many, too.
LHBs get a wildly different look. Four-seamers rule the land, leaning on its cut-action to glide along the inside corner, stealing called strikes and making for a difficult early hack. His curve does a ton of work to keep batters honest about a quarter of the time, allowing the sweeper, once again, to be the star of the show and earn its 21% SwStr rate to punch-out batters. And if they are sitting breaker, he’ll sneak a front-hip sinker in there – 97% of all sinkers thrown by Sonny to LHBs in 2023 were in two-strike counts. Every so often, a changeup or cutter will find its way into the approach, but those four offerings are the lead spices in the cauldron.
It’s not a typical approach. When equipped with Sonny’s slider, we often encourage pitchers to throw more of them, often inside the zone, and earlier in the count. However, Gray is comfortable with his fastballs and curveball to progress effectively, even if it means more volatility in the end given the reservations of his best pitch – if he doesn’t get to two strikes, it means batters are connecting on easier-to-hit pitches. In the end, I see Gray as a stable arm who will continue to suppress hits and carry a strikeout rate that flirts with 25%. You’ll want to start Sonny when he’s on the bump this year, just stay healthy, alright?
31. Yu Darvish (SDP, RHP)
I don’t think I’m ever going to feel confident in my view of Darvish. On one hand, I can see multiple shifts in his approach that could benefit him massively as his stuff is far from lacking. On the other, I’m concerned about his ability to command his wide arsenal, preventing him from executing even the greatest game plan. There’s a sense that Darvish figures out what he has working for him in each start and adapts from there instead of rooting himself onto a specific approach with minor tweaks.
That said, there are simpler adjustments that I think can return major dividends. He already knows to save his four-seamer for two-strike counts, but the pitch often lands low in the zone. Given Darvish’s elite VAA and above-average extension + iVB on the 95 mph heater, there’s room for its sub 10% SwStr rate marks to climb as high as 15% in 2024 if he can locate it above the zone – not at the top of the zone, above it.
Meanwhile, he features three sets of “sliders” – a proper cutter, a gyro slider, and a sweeper. Currently, the cutter isn’t getting much love, oddly thrown more to RHBs than LHBs, both sub 10% of the time. That cutter should be Darvish’s fastball focus against LHBs as the sinker gets pummeled, and the four-seamer works best as a surprise two-strike pitch than an in-zone offering. With a cutter working inside, it opens up the gyro slider (not sweeper) underneath the zone, front-hip surprise sinkers late in the count, and the splitter that can appear depending on the day.
With the gyro slider used more for lefties, the sweeper can dominate righties, especially if its near 50% zone rate drops and turns into more of a chase pitch out of the zone. Utilize the curve as an in-zone strike pitch, the sinker to jam batters inside (not backdoor called strikes, please. It gets crushed), then four-seamers upstairs, even outside two-strike counts.
That sounds like a lot and I’m just wishcasting over here, but the excitement for me is the fact that Darvish has these weapons. They are right there! So many pitchers dream of having the ability to manipulate the baseball like him and it’s more plausible to me that adjusting the mentality behind each offering can induce larger steps forward than the average pitcher. Is Darvish’s command good enough to make this work? I’m not sure. I do like the idea of him focusing on select use cases instead of the massive variety, which hopefully can fine-tune his craft and squeeze the most out of what he does. At the very least, I don’t think Darvish has hit the cliff of his career. His stuff still moves and has great shape, and he carries 95 mph heaters and tossed max starts (read: 30+ and 12 in 2020) in four straight years, save for last year’s 24 starts. The hits-per-nine will improve, the strikeouts will still be hovering at 25%, and the ratios will improve with it. Just don’t draft him as an SP #3…or maybe not your SP #4. The floor is still lower than the Top 40 starters, especially with moments that will likely force you to take an aspirin, but he’s far closer to productivity than most pitchers after the SP 50 mark.
32. Shota Imanaga (CHC, LHP)
The Cubs are signing Imanaga and I personally believe they got a steal. Imanaga’s four-seamer grades incredibly well with elite iVB and VAA, while his approach in the NPB suggests there is room to grow with a better approach up in the zone. Making that adjustment could be the simple answer to quell fears of longball troubles in Wrigley, while he also sports fantastic command of a wide arsenal that includes a splitter, curve, sweeper, and cutter, limiting walks and boasting the best Stuff+ of all starters in the WBC (yes, better than Yamamoto and Shohei). For a detailed look at Imanaga, I highly recommend this video from Lance Brozdowski.
I’ll likely have Imanaga on many of my teams as a Holly arm, expecting solid ratios, the ability to go six frames, and flirtation with a 25% strikeout rate. If he takes the direction to lean into the high heater, Imanaga could be the very best FA signing of the off-season and a sneaky stud for your fantasy teams as a reliable arm throughout the entire season.
33. Joe Ryan (MIN, RHP)
I was initially much higher on Ryan and now that I’m more well-versed in pitch shape (PLV Pitches app!), splitting RHBs/LHBs, and ICR rates, Ryan’s warts are larger than ever. Against RHBs, not a single pitch thrown by Ryan last season fared better than a 45% ICR, yes, including his four-seamer. Ho boy. And that’s the real crux of the issue.
Ryan has a fantastic low arm angle that allows his four-seamer to overwhelm batters upstairs, which he certainly does at a 97th percentile 17% SwStr rate. However, his splitter is so often in the zone and his sweeper is so far out of the zone that batters are comfortable inside the box, as against Ryan, batters are swinging at pitches more than any other starter in the majors. In other words, Ryan had a 100th percentile swing rate and it makes sense. Batters would step up and get ready to thwack at high heaters, intimidated by the splitter that would still land in the zone below the heater, and convicted in their ability to lay off the slider as it would often ride out of the zone.
It means he needs help. I’m in the camp that the splitter isn’t the right pitch for Ryan’s arm action – his lower arm angle makes it difficult to get on top of the splitter, making a traditional circle-change pair better with his pronation – while he needs to find a better breaker than the current sweeper. Other arms whose approaches he can follow would be Nola and his big spiked curve, Castillo and his slider, or Webb with his sinker (wait, why doesn’t Ryan have a sinker for RHBs?) and I’m going to believe Ryan is figuring this out over the off-season to add something else to the mix.
I’ll be worried if we see the same three-pitch mix entering camp. It’s uncommon for a pitcher to have the foundation of Ryan’s heater, and with his increased velocity last season, it’s not out of the question Ryan takes another step forward this winter. The strikeouts should still be there with his heater’s whiffability, though I may be wishcasting a bit that his home run rate will fall (and thus his ERA) as it’s not a given he makes a significant shift in his arsenal. That said, a 4.00 ERA arm with a 1.15 WHIP and 200 strikeouts with double-digit Wins is still helpful, especially with a ceiling for more.
34. Bailey Ober (MIN, RHP)
Here’s a fun stat. Across Ober’s three pitches (four-seamer, changeup, sweeper), just one of them held an ICR above 40% against either LHBs/RHBs and obviously it’s the sweeper against LHBs. The good news? He throws it just 10% of the time there as his four-seamer and changeup clean UP.
I call him Bailey Oberizzi for a reason – he paints the top of the zone with four-seamers and batters can’t do anything about it. His 6’9″ frame allows him to get an elite extension at the cost of a steeper VAA and mediocre iVB, but getting so close to the plate and landing upstairs with such precision allows Ober to get whiffs upstairs and make his changeup’s legit fading action steal all the strikes while preventing hard contact consistently.
It’s why Ober has a term named after him – The Bailey Special – granted to an arm who can go six frames with at least a strikeout per inning and about 2 ER. The man coasts with hard-to-hit strikes, and while he is missing that super mega whiff breaker, the four-seamer and changeup do enough, while the sweeper certainly helps with a 32% CSW against RHBs.
Imagine if Ober improves that slider, now that he’s been given the chance to pitch every five games for a full season. We’re talking 170+ frames with a 25% strikeout rate, a 3.50 ERA, a 1.10-1.15 WHIP, and double-digit Wins. Uhhhhhh yes please.
35. Michael King (SDP, RHP)
King is what Brady Singer wants to be. It’s a legit sinker that he can spot backdoor and inside to RHBs mixed with a legit sweeper, a solid changeup, and a four-seamer that surprises batters upstairs at 95+ mph when they expect the big breaker or bowling ball riding fastball. I generally don’t encourage chasing pitchers who are so reliant on backdoor sinkers like King is, but to see a 36% called strike rate on the pitch to RHBs is astounding, to say the least, and while it will regress in 2024, you don’t earn a mark like that across 400 pitches without having it as a legitimate skill.
There are some warts to be aware of. Having a sinker focus creates trouble against off-handed batters, and King was noticeably worse against LHBs, especially with his breaker coming in the form of a sweeper (gyro sliders > sweepers for off-handed batters). The nullifier here is the changeup, a pitch that can develop into a proper force in time, but will need to accelerate its development a bit to ensure he can navigate a tough LHB-heavy lineup. In fact, I’d even encourage him to feature the pitch more against RHBs when they are geared for his sinker as the slowball does a great job mimicking the sinker and can steal plenty of strikes under the zone.
He’s going to get all the innings this year, health permitting, thanks to his pitch efficiency (sinkers = faster outs, usually) and great defense behind him. I’m surprisingly in on King and expecting myself to be less encouraged initially by the sinker, but even his dud start against the Royals wasn’t concerning – it was more a product of two hung sweepers & a single poor sinker over the plate; it happens and he handled the rest of the lineup effectively. If King can wrangle that changeup, he’ll have the mix we want to see in a proper workhorse and produce consistently.
36. Bryan Woo (SEA, RHP)
I’m a Woo girl. Wait, why do you have Woo slotted above Miller? I just told you. I spent a good amount of time on both Woo and Miller and settled on Woo as the safer target for 2024 and it comes down to polish. Both pitchers have four-seamers that are sure to have success (for different reasons and with surprisingly different results…?), though Woo has already flexed more breadth in his arsenal, while displaying a higher ability to locate across his arsenal. In short, Woo battles the batter rather than himself more often than Bryce. That’s a huge deal in my book.
An oddity here is how both pitchers have dominating four-seamers, yet they win with different aspects. Woo’s heater has below-average iVB (shockingly so), but his VAA is one of the best in the majors, making an incredibly flat angle at the top of the zone for his four-seamer. That helped the pitch earn a ridiculous 20% SwStr rate against right-handers in 2023, an achievement catalyzed by a sinker he developed mid-season, with which Woo does a solid job of keeping arm-side and jamming batters. I actually think there’s a better balance to be had with four-seamers vs. sinkers against RHB (more straight balls please), but that’s likely a game-by-game situation.
Woo’s secondaries are also better. There’s still work to be done – the sweeper’s locations are laughable as they carry 95th percentile hiLoc% and his cutter isn’t always there – but the promise is there and I trust Woo’s development with those pitches moreso than Miller’s based on Woo’s more reliable command.
I worry a little about Woo against left-handers, which requires him to find a better rhythm with his secondaries to thrive (all three of his secondaries were crushed against left-handers, but the four-seamer and sinker worked well enough to survive), but all of that comes with time. After throwing 121 frames last season, I imagine the Mariners will rely on him every five days, ideally pushing him closer to 85-90 pitches per game than the 80 PPG we saw in his rookie year. The skills are there, he just needs a little more development time.
37. Chris Sale (ATL, LHP)
The move to Atlanta is obviously a positive for Sale – better Win chance, home park, team defense, all of it – though does it do enough to quell our concerns? Sale’s health is not the only volatile element of his game after oscillating fastball velocities across the season, sitting 94/95 at times and dropping all the way down to 91 mph for multiple outings. We haven’t seen Sale settle into a rotation spot since 2019, and even then we saw him struggle to exert himself fully, with many hiccups along the way. Who’s to say 2024 will be any different after barely eclipsing 100 frames?
The skill set has its warts as well. While LHB are doomed as they endure his wicked slider and sinkers that destroy bats inside (a new feature last season for Sale), RHB have it easier than ever. His four-seamer is still effective at its lower velocity, but the slider and change were battered for a 40% ICR, lacking the same consistency we saw in previous years. It makes me a touch concerned that his stuff will degrade further in his 35-year-old season.
However, there is hope. The mental aspect of the game shouldn’t be ignored completely, and introducing a competitor like Sale into the successful Atlanta clubhouse could reinvigorate the southpaw for a return to form. After all, he’s been open about not playing up to his contract in Boston and a fresh start with a healthy off-season could bring the very best of Sale for 2024.
At the end of the day, I don’t believe you’ll bench Sale across the season, where he starts should help more than they hurt, with an obvious ceiling of legit production when he’s on the bump. The major downside is drafting an arm you don’t see a whole lot during the year, preventing him from taking steps toward redemption as father time tightens its grip, creating a HIPSTER on your squads. As long as you’re not over-extending to draft Sale as your SP #3, I’m all for adding him to your teams – it’s cleaner production than Cherry Bomb types – just make sure you’re not turning down a safer arm with similar skills.
38. Nick Pivetta (BOS, RHP)
I can’t believe I’m typing this. I’m in on Pivetta. BUT NICK. I know I know, I was so high on him back in, what, 2018? 2019? And now five years later, it’s as if I haven’t learned my lesson.
But he’s a new man. You see, for years Pivetta has had elite extension and iVB on his four-seamer, but with a poor VAA, he couldn’t use it as a true dominator that masked poor secondary offerings. It had to do too much and was consistently blasted for high ICR marks and life was rough, save for the days his curve or slider were able to be properly located for strikes.
2023 was different. Not all of 2023, but two distinct moments occurred that vaulted Pivetta in a new direction. First, introducing a hard 89/90 mph cutter in early July allowed him to find reliable strikes separate from his heater. He could spot it down-and-arm-side against right-handers far better than his slider, propelling two ridiculous games (with an opener) that tallied 23 punchouts between them.
August 20th saw another step forward for Pivetta. He began throwing “the whirlybird” sweeper mid-season and leaned into it for 20% usage against the Yankees and never let up after that. Watching his final nine games of the year showcased the pitcher I always dreamed of. Four-seamers returned a 16%+ SwStr rate instead of the 11% prior as they effectively tunneled with low sliders, cutters, and curveballs – Pivetta finally had an approach that worked, with a legit feel for his secondaries. We’re talking 40 IP of a 3.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with a 35% strikeout rate and 5.6% BB kind of rhythm.
That is a small sample and given Pivetta’s history of unreliable secondaries, it does feel strange to endorse him for a full season. That said, you don’t need to draft him inside your Top 40 SP, instead allowing yourself to get a foundation of starters you trust before taking a chance on Pivetta’s cutter and slider returning for the full year. I’d love to do it after I have my foundation set and if the secondaries aren’t there, well, we move on. Give me that upside over the arms who have innate volatility across their arsenal where you can’t believe them even when things are going well.
39. Tanner Bibee (CLE, RHP)
Bibee will be drafted in your league higher than I’d suggest chasing him. I see a pitcher who can have a true four-pitch mix working, but in the end, it’s a great slider, an over-performing changeup, a decent fastball, and an inconsistent curveball from a pitcher who doesn’t excel with command. There are innings and sometimes full games where Bibee can locate his fastball inside to left-handers and get his curve at the bottom of the zone, though it’s not a skill to be trusted throughout the year, and that worries me when his fastball has terrible VAA and a sub 10% SwStr rate in 2023. He’ll have to nail down its locations to demand success with the pitch. The slider is great with potential for much more if he can locate it better, with many starts featuring sliders that float just into the zone for strikes instead of being a consistent threat in the zone or down-and-gloveside. Bibee’s slowball excelled due to its dramatic 10 mph drop from his fastball, though it stays up in the zone frequently and is unlikely to hold its 92nd percentile putaway rate again.
It seems awfully weird to be this negative about a rookie with a 24% strikeout rate and who carried many teams last year, and I could be very wrong here about Bibee. His slight cross-body stride speaks to his shotgun-blast locations, and a strong 2024 season is asking for growth in both the stuff and command, which is too much of an ask. Bibee isn’t going to have a 0.82 HR/9 again, bringing his 2.98 ERA far closer to 4.00 as the WHIP is sure to follow, as holding a sub 8.0 hit-per-nine and sub 8% walk rate will be a difficult task.
40. Shane Baz (TBR, RHP)
I’m writing this at the end of November, at a point where we don’t know the status of Baz. My gut tells me we’re going to see the elite-PLV-slider-and-four-seamer Baz, not the pitching-with-a-poor-UCL-tendon of 2022…who still graded out well and produced for your fantasy teams. Take the ability of Taj Bradley and give it to a pitcher who can actually command his fastball and breakers + a changeup that was starting to show some life and that’s Baz. He’s the real deal from a skills standpoint and as long as he’s on the healthy side of a TJS (which we are seeing more often than not these days), then Baz should light up the stat lines consistently.
Volume, not skills, is the biggest concern for 2024 and with few definitive arms in the mix, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rays quickly pushed him to five innings after his first start or two, with six coming shortly after. 150 frames is the typical “post-TJS season” clip and with Baz’s skill set, I trust his production more than many other young arms.
Tier 7 – I Have To Put Them Somewhere
This is mostly your Holly/Toby tier of guys who are hopefully going to be consistent enough to separate from the traditional Toby pack, while there is some fun upside in the mix. Oh, and Cease who I don’t like enough for Tier 6, but Tier 8 just felt too low and ignores his ceiling too much.
41. Dylan Cease (CHW, RHP)
You’re drafting Cease because you believe he can get back to his 2022 form and I’m here to tell you that’s a path of discomfort and anxiety. Is it possible? Absolutely, and if Cease winds up on a team that can work with him to squeeze the most out of his four-seamer and slider, or better yet, find something else to properly complement the two weapons (the curve ain’t it, y’all), then I can see how Cease rises back to the Top 15 SP in your fantasy leagues.
But 2022 was a weird year where Cease both overperformed and peaked, with 2023 carrying more of what we should expect in the year ahead. There’s talk about the Stuff+ of Cease’s four-seamer dictating far better times ahead, though that mark is rooted in his elite iVB (18 inches!) and I worry about his low extension and VAA marks that can explain why the pitch hasn’t held a SwStr rate above 13% in his career against RHBs (and far worse against LHBs), in addition to the pitch crossing The Plane of 1,000 Cuts – the X-axis of horizontal movement. I don’t get it. When you cross the X-axis as a four-seamer, it means you have cut action. I hate cut action on four-seamers that we hope to earn whiffs with, as the ball finds the bat more often than pitches that feature more arm-side movement.
Back to that fastball’s performance. In 2022, Cease shockingly dropped its fastball strike rate to left-handers massively to sub 50%, but doing so prevented a ton of contact, and with Cease, it’s in his best interest to walk batters and aim to strike them out instead of relying on balls in play (hey, that’s the Snell method! See how precarious it is?). That fastball returned to a 66% strike rate in 2023 and subsequently got pummeled. Go figure.
However, the four-seamer held the fort against right-handers (as a mediocre option with a sub 13% SwStr as he stayed up-and-away, refusing to jam batters for whatever reason), and it was the slider that let him down there. Far fewer strikes resulted as the pitch induced fewer chases out of the zone and found the zone far less. That slider is everything for Cease and if he can’t overwhelm RHBs with sliders, then the whole thing falls apart.
I don’t believe a team can take a look at Cease and fix him overnight to return to his 2022 form. A rebound season requires Cease to demolish RHBs with his slider again while ensuring LHBs stay off his four-seamer, as I have little faith his ~55% strike rate curveball will have a ton of influence on his next six-month campaign. In addition, it’s hard to imagine “unlocking” his four-seamer for something more without great extension and VAA, merged with the cut-action that needs to get axed. You’re going to get a fair number of strikeouts with that slider still on his side and it’s well within reason to expect a better season ahead, but the volatility is sure to stick around even with Cease arguably breaking the Huascar Rule. No thanks.
42. Justin Verlander (HOU, RHP)
I’m more encouraged about Verlander than I expected to be. On paper, his declining SwStr rates on both his four-seamer and slider are troublesome (9% and 15%, respectively), pushing his strikeout rate close to 20% in 2023 and spelling further degradation for his upcoming 41-year-old season, especially after missing all of April last year. Combine that with a curveball that had far worse results, it doesn’t take a prophet to predict a proper fall off a cliff this season.
And yet, there’s hope. The hook was poorly commanded last season, and returning to form with an emphasis on getting the pitch lower for 2024 would have a ripple effect across his arsenal, giving him more flexibility with his fastball and slider, alleviating the tendency to go two-pitch at times. Verlander’s four-seamer still has elite iVB and he’s excellent at locating the pitch high enough to keep balls in the park (for the most part), with his only weakness coming against LHBs where the pitch fell into the zone more than ideal. And his slider, despite its pedestrian 15% SwStr rate, is still phenomenal at keeping hitters at bay.
Throw all of that into a pot and I don’t think you’ll bench Verlander in 2023, given his legit Win potential and a great WHIP with a strong defense behind him. Strikeouts and total volume are the biggest concerns, with a floor of a 4.00+ ERA if he’s unable to keep his four-seamer elevated (a skill he’s had, I don’t know, forever.). Oddly enough, that’s cool with me, just be careful leaning on Verlander if you’re already lacking punchouts.
43. Chris Bassitt (TOR, RHP)
Bassitt gets overlooked for obvious reasons: He doesn’t have the WOW factor, featuring a sinker that doesn’t feel like it should have a 27% called strike rate, or the secondaries that win you over on paper or with the eye test. But you’re the wise fantasy manager and you know there are many ways to earn success as a pitcher. What Bassitt does is one of them.
How does his sinker earn so many called strikes? Two reasons. He spots it decently well around the zone and mixes in a bevy of secondaries that keep batters tepid from sitting on the riding heater. It’s a dance of cutters, sliders, curves, and even changeups, mixed with the occasional high four-seamer in two-strike counts (that was far less efficient in 2023, but could return if he spots it better).
I could go on about his slider’s increase in SwStr rate, the curve that wasn’t as effective as previous years, the high cutter effectiveness, but the real champion is that sinker. With its routine 30% ICR against RHBs (and often lower), Bassitt is able to see the sixth frame often, granting him a solid WHIP and a handful of Wins. The only concern is its effectiveness against LHB, with hopes that his cutter can be a touch more precise in 2024, while possibly including more sliders and curves into the mix.
Bassitt is safe and reliable, though he’s likely not going to exceed a 25% strikeout rate. He’s a rock for 15-teamers and a good stabilizer for 12-teamers if you’ve taken a boatload of risk early on.
44. Brayan Bello (BOS, RHP)
I see Bello and I see potential for something more. After tossing 28 starts and 158 frames in 2023, Bello is primed to be a 180 IP volume arm in the year ahead, rooted in his sinker/changeup approach that should help him keep his walk rate down and hold a lower pitches-per-out than his contemporaries. I imagine the fatigue he showcased in his final two starts (13 ER that moved his ERA from 3.71 to 4.24) is a process of development and will be ironed out across another year.
Those two pitches will keep him afloat, even in Boston’s offense-fueling home park, and the question becomes What’s Next? Bello has hovered at a 20% strikeout rate while lacking a four-seamer to bully upstairs (not for lack of trying, though), nor a major breaking ball to demoralize RHBs. Bello’s slider for the season was pedestrian at best, though it woke up in September with four whiffs a game in his final outings, and he’s expressed the desire to increase its usage in 2024, likely after improving the pitch over the off-season.
With a proper slider, he could become a danger for RHBs who saw the breaker record just a 54% strike rate and just 15 strikeouts in 2023. However, it doesn’t quell my fears against LHBs, where Bello elected to favor more four-seamers than sinkers, which did him few favors with its high 44% ICR rate and unsightly -15% Quality-Bad pitch rate. Yikes. That heater nullified the massive success of his changeup, while the sinker was far better than we usually see them perform against LHBs, likely a product of mirroring his changeup so well at nearly 10 mph harder and with elite horizontal movement. Bello will need to slash four-seamers from his LHB approach for something else and I’m not entirely sure what at the moment. Maybe just throw 40-50% changeups?
What we see from Bello in 2023 is likely not the guy we get in the year ahead as the soon-to-be 25-year-old is still shaping his approach and arsenal for his second full year in the bigs. It outlines improvements in both ERA and WHIP, while possible strikeout gains are attainable. A draft pick in Bello likely results in a hold through the full season, though the sizeable chance of Bello making only a small improvement holds me back from elevating him up my draft boards.
45. Merrill Kelly (ARI, RHP)
Kelly is the perfect example of a pitcher that we all want to believe is safe after two years of nearly identical seasons, yet his 1.19 WHIP with a rising walk rate (9.4%?!) makes it awfully precarious. Then again, his strikeout rate rose to a near 26% clip due to his changeup flirting with a glorious 50% O-Swing that we only speak of in ancient myths, suggesting a play for 200 strikeouts if he’s able to go a full 32 starts. The stellar defense behind him has been the catalyst for his low hit rates the last two seasons and should stick around again, but I’m not sure I buy into his four-seamer returning an 11-12% SwStr rate for another season. Meanwhile, the cutter/sinker/curve are mediocre fail-safes if the changeup isn’t inducing chases at an elite rate. That slowball’s new 2022 grip makes me believe the 2021 floor isn’t present, and I generally think those drafting Kelly will hold him throughout the season, I simply hate how close he is to regressing massively and becoming a Toby at best. Just throw 40% changeups and I’ll be happy.
46. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI, LHP)
Sánchez is pretty remarkable. His sinker gets a ton of horizontal movement and a fair amount of drop, allowing it to sit away from lefties and still give them fits at an unsustainable sub 20% ICR rate. He’ll allow more hits across a larger sample next season, but we shouldn’t expect a massive swing of the pendulum. Even without his slider acting like the traditional southpaw silver bullet to dispose of left-handers, Sánchez’s sinker will grant him the advantage in same-handed matchups.
Against right-handers, it gets a bit weird. The changeup is a monster at near 40% usage and 21% SwStr rate, mirroring the sinker well but at 11 mph slower that has the bottom fall out from under it. But that sinker plays a delicate game of 25-30% called strikes and a 50% ICR. It’s a dangerous affair, though his +8 Hit Luck suggests Sánchez already saw its floor, while gaining a touch of command polish (inside half locations were favored, oddly enough) could also hint at improved performance in 2024.
There’s also the question of his slider. There were times Sánchez was limited to just two pitches when his feel for the slider disappeared, either leaving it too far inside the zone or missing for an easy take, and its 40%+ ICR against righties is a showcase of its unreliability.
This makeup isn’t an arm primed to return another 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP season. However, Sánchez’s efficiency on the bump, as he consistently earns outs with sinkers and whiffs with the changeup, does suggest he can be stretched out to six frames more often, while settling inside a 20-25% strikeout rate with digestible ERA and WHIP ratios. His sinker and changeup are strong enough foundations that he can be trusted enough to roster in 12-teamers, though the wheels could fall off if his sinker doesn’t improve against right-handers.
47. Walker Buehler (LAD, RHP)
It feels weird ranking Buehler and I’m likely going to jump back and forth throughout the pre-season. Buehler shouldn’t be expected to be pitching for the squad until the end of April at the earliest, especially with the signing of Paxton, as the Dodgers are trying to do everything they can to preserve him for their playoff run at the end of the year. Does that mean he’s on the IL to start the year? I’m okay with that. Honestly, I don’t know…? It may mean he’s in the minors instead and that would be all kinds of annoying as he steals a roster spot for the most critical weeks of the season. Maybe he forces himself into the rotation in April? It’s possible, but not necessary and I’d imagine having Buehler ramp up and never slow down during the season is preferred over a start-stop-start mid-way through, especially when they have a clean bill of health across their other arms at the start of the year.
With all that out of the way, what can we expect of the quality of Buehler’s outings? This is where I have more hesitation than I expected. Buehler’s four-seamer was absolutely bananas in 2021…before the sticky stuff ban as it went from 18.5 iVB to just over 16 inches by the end of the year and early 2022. Losing two inches of iVB on a four-seamer is a big deal, and paired with Buehler’s propensity to not elevate the pitch (Dodgers, GET IT TOGETHER), I have to wonder if that heater will be a golden offering post-TJS or not. I’m inclined to believe Buehler’s arm will feel better than it did in 2022 when we had our concerns about his performance, though it’s unclear right now where his skills are.
The slider, curve, cutter, and change were all solid offerings that made Buehler a complete pitcher, though he showed many signs of struggle commanding them before going under the knife – a problem that may be rectified with a healthy elbow. I have little doubt that Buehler will help teams this year as long as he’s healthy with this arsenal, but a 3.00 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 25%+ strikeout rate may be out of the cards without the old fastball.
Buehler has the makings of a pitcher you’re absolutely thrilled to have rostered in June while he induces all the anxiety in April, wondering why you have this stuck roster spot for at least a month. Buehler may not even give you production the moment he returns, either, with the Dodgers possibly ramping him up at 3-4 innings for the first few games. My feelings toward stashing players have shifted over the years, and I now see a curmudgeon in my reflection as I favor the short-term value moreso than the stash/long-term value of the seasons (get your value now and worry about next month later), which has me leaning toward skipping Buehler in drafts – it’s not a 100% lock he’s a stud! – and yet, I just can’t turn him down at this point. The chances of Buehler helping you across 140 frames are higher than those getting drafted behind him, even if you have to wait a little longer to get it.
48. José Berríos (TOR, RHP)
Don’t treat Berríos like he’s an average of his 2022 and 2023 selves. He completely overhauled his approach and it worked well for him, though there are still some glaring issues that make me a bit concerned moving forward.
In short, Berríos’ four-seamer does him few favors and he wisely axed the pitch for well-spotted sinkers and changeups, while finding consistency with his curveball against right-handers. The sinker now sits glove-side against both LHBs and RHBs and does so incredibly effectively, though I wish he was able to jam RHBs more often to at least flirt with the 40% O-Swing it had during its heyday. Meanwhile, that hook landed perfectly down and glove-side in 2023 and I imagine his general embrace of the glove side with his sinker and curve allowed both to find their spots better.
Right-handers also get a taste of the changeup, normally saved for two-strike counts and it works reasonably well, save for some mistakes in the Nitro Zone that batters are able to pummel. However, the problem lies mostly against right-handers. Berríos’ does a great job stealing called strikes with front-hip sinkers, but the four-seamer still gets hit hard over the plate, while the curve can’t figure out a home to earn whiffs or called strikes on demand without risk of punishment. José gave his changeup a nod to find more strikes in the zone as a result, which didn’t lead to the desired results, either. Something else needs to get tweaked here – either finding a rhythm nailing down-and-away four-seamers (probably not), figuring out his curveball down and middle-out of the plate, or getting a better feel for that changeup.
In the end, Berríos has a solid enough approach now against righties with a better fastball to deal with lefties, which will make him The Great Undulator once again, hovering a 3.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Paired with consistent volume and a strikeout every inning he hits the bump, Berríos is likely to be the same arm we’ve been accustomed to – a HIPSTER at worst and a Holly at best.
49. Jordan Montgomery (FA, LHP)
I don’t expect to roster Montgomery in any of my leagues after the playoff tax is sure to inflate his draft stock. Passan, calling his pitch “The Deathball” has done things to this fantasy community. The Bear is sure to help your fantasy team, but his mix of sinkers, curveballs, and changeups (with the occasional cutter and four-seamer) simply isn’t enough. His changeup is the best offering agaisnt RHB, but its sub 60% strike rate showcases its eye-rolling inducing behavior that makes me curl inside dreaming of watching a pitcher who can execute and not beg for whiffs so often. This is a gross exagerration. Sorry, you’re right…when JorMont is pitching in the playoffs or has that one magical stretch every August or so. Otherwise? It’s a take on the Neckbeard approach with a few more strikeouts. That’s not for me.
I have to give him credit against LHB, though. Montgomery does a solid job jamming his sinker inside to consistently induce poor contact as much as any sinker out there, especially for a high 77% strike pitch. It’s a rare sinker with a PLV over 5.00 for that very reason…but sadly it falls to 4.53 PLV against RHB. Bleeeeggggh.
He will have runs of strong command where he can avoid mistakes over the plate with fastballs, allowing him to lean into hooks for strikeouts and changeups for surprise outs, though he doesn’t have that pitch to turn to inside the zone to demand success. He’s a nibbler who doesn’t nibble as well as the elites. He’s a strikeout pitcher who doesn’t have a go-to whiff pitch. He’s a volume pitcher who lacks efficiency. A jack of all trades, master of none. And I get it. He’s pretty safe for a sub 4.00 ERA with a WHIP around 1.20 or so and about 160-170 strikeouts. He’s sure to sign with a team that’ll give him a solid chance at double-digit Wins as well and there’s legit value in that. I just want to chase for more, in life.
Tier 8 – $100 At The Mall
I consider Tier 7 where the cliff should be in 12-teamers as you should have at least four starters you trust to anchor your rotation throughout the full year. That means you can go ham wild chasing ceiling at this point, thorwing injury concerns or lack of track record out the window. Knock yourself out.
50. Carlos Rodón (NYY, LHP)
After taking an hour to sit down with injury specialist Stephen Lyman during PitchCon (watch the chat here!), we discussed Rodón’s health track record, which included a forearm strain in 2023 that prevented him from starting until July 2023. Lyman outlined how strains rarely recover in full, suggesting it’ll pop up again in 2024, not to mention Rodón’s fall from 96 mph in two starts of September down to 93/94 mph in his final two, which ended the year. Yikes.
BUT, let’s say Rodón is A-Ok and fully healthy in the spring with a normal schedule expected for the season ahead. His horrendous 2023 marks can be explained by two factors: his slider against LHBs and the aggression of RHBs against his four-seamer. The LHB problem should be eradicated in the year ahead as we shouldn’t anticipate a replication of its horrific 51% strike rate for another season. That’s simply unheard of and something we should expect to improve for 2024, especially when small sample is in the mix merged with recovering from an arm injury that allowed for little time to regain a groove.
The RHB issue is a little more nuanced. Batters had massive swing rates against Rodón’s four-seamer, especially on first pitches, which resulted in one of the lowest True-First Strike rates on the heater & 1st percentile Early-Called Strikes, which tells you batters are seeking the heater on the first pitch constantly and punishing it. It lowered Rodón’s confidence and led to more balls on first pitches, which got him in worse counts, increased his walks, and messed everything up.
In addition, his four-seamer was objectively worse. Its iVB dropped from an elite 17.6 mark to 16.9 (still great but not sooo great), weighing down his SwStr from a strong 14/15% clip to just 12% against RHBs and creating a ghastly 47% ICR for RHBs off his heater. Blegh. The hope here is proper health will keep his velocity up closer to 96 mph more often, which would increase the iVB, prevent batters from effectively seeking out heaters early, and make life good again for Rodón.
The path to an SP #1/#2 for your fantasy squads is shockingly close for a guy who just had a 6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Stay healthy, regain the minor decline of the heater, and normalize the slider against LHBs. That first element of health is the major domino that needs to fall and while I’m not banking on it, a strong spring will make me more inclined to chase him in drafts. All I ask is to not pass on legit production for your teams before taking the gamble on Rodón.
51. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, RHP)
This one took a while. Eovaldi was able to drop his hits-per-nine dramatically in 2023, shaving off over two hits from his time in Boston. How? A few factors: 1) better team defense in Texas, 2) improved cutter and splitters, especially against left-handers, 3) no more sliders, and 4) somehow returning out of nowhere in September with his velocity back.
That last part is the real issue with Eovaldi: his health. Eovaldi had an incredibly weird 2022 where his velocity fell off a cliff and he was banished to the IL soon after. The Rangers picked him up for 2023, and everything was more than gravy in the early months, sitting in the dugout after his June 4th start with a 2.24 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate, including a five-game stretch tossing 41.2 innings. In FIVE starts. Yeesh. However, the heater sat 95.8 mph across his first twelve starts, and the signs were beginning to show on that last game with a 95.2 mph heater. It fell to 93.8 by June 20th, leading to Eovaldi’s final 13 starts returning a 5.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 20% strikeout rate. But his last two starts were an atrocity! Fine, a 4.23 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with a 19% strikeout rate in the eleven games after. Better? Thanks.
I’m worried about Eovaldi’s arm/shoulder/whatever you want to say is the cause of two straight seasons ending in fatigue that clearly affected the playoff hero – don’t forget, Eovaldi suddenly had 95-97 mph in the playoffs and led the Rangers to their first World Series titles, an act that he’ll have forever, and I’m willing to wager it was him giving everything he had at the sacrifice of 2024.
I’m terrified of the arm, even if his velocity looks alright early in the year. The overall approach of four-seamers (great VAA, terrible iVB) that get hit hard + cutters that nullify lefties and struggle against righties, and a splitter that kills LHB and can work against RHB screams massive regression ahead. He really isn’t as good as the playoffs or the early spring performances suggest – Eovaldi is much more like his 2021 and 2022 of high-3s ERA and ~1.20 WHIP with a strikeout rate hovering 22% than the workhorse ace we saw for eight weeks.
52. Gavin Williams (CLE, RHP)
It’s the four-seamer. Williams’ fantastic extension paired with a good VAA allows his 95/96 mph four-seamer to thrive when located at the top of the zone, even with league-average iVB. He’s not as precise with the pitch as we want it to be on a start-to-start basis, though we’ve seen the ridiculous results when he finds a groove for the offering.
However, how elite is it? Considering Williams’ curve returned a horrid sub 50% strike rate last year (it should get better but by how much?) and that he has a slider that was effective in the zone but doesn’t have the same bite as other breakers from his peers, most of Gavin’s future success leans on that four-seamer dominating at-bats. This isn’t a Strider heater, sadly, and it’s not a Bryce or Woo heater either. Without a reliable third pitch or a #2 pitch that can take over a game, it turns Williams into a high Cherry Bomb candidate for 2024 and that has me slotting him behind the stable Holly types in drafts.
53. Cristian Javier (HOU, RHP)
It’s all about the spin. Which spin: his slider or his spin rate? Yes. No I mean–YES. Javier lost over 100 RPM on both his four-seamer and slider in 2023 (and regained a lot of it in the playoffs…), which may have been a catalyst for his fastball’s struggles, along with losing a tick on the heater (maybe that’s the reason for the spin drop?). Javier still missed a ton of bats with that four-seamer against RHBs at an elite 18%+ SwStr rate, and even with a much lower SwStr rate against LHBs (down to just 11%), Javier’s four-seamer held an impressive 35% ICR against those batters and that gave him a chance.
But hot dang, that slider failed him against RHBs. The pitch was either floated too high or tugged far out of the zone as it dropped from a 60% strike rate to just over 50% against right-handers in 2023. Wait, how did Javier hold nearly the same 9% walk rate as 2022? I DON’T KNOW. Well, kinda. Javier adjusted by serving fewer sliders to RHBs in favor of more heaters, which worked effectively to generate more outs as he lifted a bit more out of the zone to induce even more flyball outs. In fact, Javier’s 52% overall flyball rate was 99th percentile once again, with grounders turning into more line drives. Back to that slider, at least it showed up for a solid 63% strike rate and a sub 30% ICR against lefties that we’ll take despite the low 7% SwStr rate, but he needs that pitch against righties. Badly.
And there’s the difference, really. Javier’s four-seamer was a bit worse to lefties, while the slider completely failed him for a heavy majority of the year against righties. It meant batters returned more liners, fewer two-strike rates, and a lower putaway rate as Javier didn’t have the same slider to feature off the heater. A pick in Javier is leaning in on his slider to lift itself out of the land of 50% strike rates against right-handers, while hoping to reclaim a bit of velocity or whiffablity on his four-seamer to left-handers. That seems like a decent bet to make given how much of a dip the slider took last season, leading me to place Javier in the Cherry Bomb crew I’d aim to grab after I have my first four starters secured.
54. Ryan Pepiot (TBR, RHP)
I like Pepiot far more than I thought I would and a move to the Rays could very well unlock the best version of him. But he was on the Dodgers! Don’t we like them for pitching development? We do for breaking balls but four-seamers? Kinda not…? One thing I’ve discovered about their staff is their hesitation to take four-seamers with excellent properties and lean into them upstairs. Buehler, Miller, Pepiot, each of these arms have four-seamers that would destroy for 14-15% SwStr rates routinely upstairs (if not more) and yet they’ve historically sat low in the zone, often down-and-gloveside instead of leaning into their strengths. Take a moment and reflect: Who was the last Dodgers pitcher with a four-seamer that bullied batters? Lance Lynn…? OH COME ON.
Back to Pepiot. His four-seamer has far better attributes than I realized given its 6.6% SwStr rate to LHB – a mark that masked its strong 14% SwStr to RHB, even without great command of the pitch upstairs. Pepiot gets excellent extension, allowing for an above-aveage VAA and pairs it with nearly 17 inches of iVB on that heater. Wait, and he’s going to TAMPA BAY! That’s right, the very team that started the high-fastball revolution. I’m excited to see how Pepiot approaches that heater in 2024 and it’s the foundation of this rank. Surely they squeeze the most out of that pitch, right?
There is a downside to it. I’m not completely sold on Pepiot’s command. All of his pitches are more shotgun-blast around the zone than I’d like, suggesting that he has trouble replicating his mechanics and preventing him from becoming that hiLoc% stud on his four-seamer like Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan. I don’t see anything incredibly alarming in his mechanics to suggest this volatility and while the incredibly low 3% walk rate may have you in fits, remember that there is a difference between control and command. Pepiot shoved all his pitches into the zone, but not along the edges nearly as well as we need him to be.
His changeup and slider both made plenty of mistakes over the plate last year, though the former is an elite pitch that he overthrew in his rookie year and found a much better feel as he became accustomed to the bigs in his second season. It’s why I’m not afraid of his performance against LHB and maintains a larger floor against RHB with his 25%+ changeup usage. It’s really that good.
The slider needs work. It currently acts as a tight cutter without pronounced depth with rare moments when he can locate it down-and-glove side that it gets sharp action out of the zone. I wonder if he keeps it as a proper 90 mph cutter and develops a true sweeper for RHB, without the need for it to excel against LHB given his excellent changeup. I believe in you Tampa Bay.
Speaking of which, there is a negative about heading to Florida. The Rays are notorious for short leashes and the hopes of a consistent six-frame effort from Pepiot dwindle with the trade. You may see many five-and-dives given Pepiot’s lack of arsenal depth at the moment, even if he pushed 90+ pitches multiple times last year. I’m willing to take that chance given the great situation, possible growth of both his fastball and breaker, and the team context of solid defense + Win chance. Sign. Me. UP.
55. Kutter Crawford (BOS, RHP)
I’m a fan y’all. Crawford has a high iVB four-seamer with good (not elite) VAA and decent enough extension and velocity to let that thing soar upstairs. And guess what? LHBs saw the pitch far upstairs and held a 16%+ SwStr rate against it. Wait, aren’t same-handed batters supposed to whiff more against upstairs heaters? They are! But Crawford doesn’t elevate as effectively against RHBs, still keeping it upstairs near a 60% hiLoc, but far more hittable than ideal, near a 55% zone rate. In other words, if Kutter goes further up the ladder with the pitch instead of settling inside the top third of the zone, he should earn more whiffs, more strikeouts, and fewer hits as its ICR rate is sure to drop from its 48% rate.
And that’s it. Seriously, from a skills standpoint, it’s the only noticeable flaw. Sure, he could be a bit better with his curve and changeup (especially to LHBs), but the kutter and slider are both fantastic pitches at earning strikes and mitigating hard contact to both lefties and righties, while the slider is a huge whiff pitch against righties. In fact, it’s filthy with the holy trinity at play – sub 30% ICR, 65%+ strike rate, and 20%+ SwStr rate – which may be a product of its 20-25% usage against RHBs, but hot dang do those numbers suggest throwing it more.
With a four-seamer that dominates upstairs and should become better with an adjustment, a slider that earns whiffs to propel strikeouts, and a reliable cutter that does exactly what it should against both righties and lefties to earn consistent strikes, Crawford has the skills you want to be a legit starter. There are two problems: The Red Sox & the volume. It’s not a great situation pitching in Fenway and the offense isn’t quite as potent as it once was, denting Crawford’s Win potential. Another blow comes in the form of Crawford’s workload. The right-hander tossed 90+ pitches just five times last year and we haven’t seen him get the long leash of 6+ innings quite yet as he tallied roughly 130 frames in 2023. That’s not to say he can’t, but there is haze in the leash we’ll see from the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have made a pair of great moves behind the scenes with Andrew Bailey and Kyle Boddy joining their development staff and I have to believe they’ll see the same thing I do with Crawford’s four-seamer. Here’s my #1 sleeper pick of the year. With @SEA + @LAA as his likely first two starts of the year, you’re going to want to take a shot on this.
56. Louie Varland (MIN, RHP)
Please let him start. Please let him start. There’s even more concern that Varland won’t get a rotation spot after the Twins added Anthony DeSclafani to the rotation, but if I had my way, the Twins would leave Paddack in the pen and give Varland the chance to go every five days. Why? Because his four-seamer is DOPE.
Varland has great extension at nearly 7 ft along with an elite VAA that allows his 94/95 mph to excel upstairs, even with middling iVB at 15+ inches. However, the pitch was walloped a ton last season as Varland struggled to get it consistently upstairs. It’s clearly an approach he’s aiming to have and one I believe he can harness over time.
His secondaries aren’t lacking, either. He doesn’t carry a demonstrative weapon to match with the best, but many at-bats see a solid 90 mph cutter that earns strikes consistently and makes batters question his four-seamer’s veracity when he can establish it around the zone. There’s room to grow with Varland’s slider, though, as the pitch failed to eclipse a 60% strike rate while its lackluster SwStr rate left much to be desired. However, Varland tugged the pitch too far out of the zone down-and-away with shocking precision, granting hope that he can make the adjustment to pull the pitch closer to the plate with a simple tweak rather than a massive overhaul.
The arsenal speaks to 5/6 innings of consistency far more than that of Paddack, with legit upside if he can get the heater upstairs and add a touch of polish to his slider. The risk here is not just a demotion to the pen, but a dent to ratios if his 2.00+ HR/9 returns, which we should know soon into the season as we monitor his overall command.
Circle Varland as a legitimate sleeper to target at the end of drafts, especially given he’s a cut candidate if he fails to earn a rotation spot out of camp. Let’s hope Minnesota does him right.
57. Bryce Miller (SEA, RHP)
If you read my thoughts on Woo, you’ll understand that I’m cautious about Bryce. On paper, he has excellent attributes that should outline a decent floor – an overwhelming four-seamer focus with excellent iVB and VAA attributes – though I worry about his consistency. Command isn’t Miller’s greatest asset, and his cutter & slider (I’m calling them two different pitches) each have had their moments, but are not ole reliables to be trusted upon. It makes his time against left-handers a struggle, with his four-seamer, sinker, and breaker all having returned 40%+ ICR rates. That’s not good. No, it’s not. In fact, his four-seamer’s SwStr held a 12% SwStr against left-handers, which should make you a bit queasy given that heater is everything for Miller. There was a changeup flipped in about 11% of the time, but a 19% CSW makes me a bit hesitant to give its 36% ICR a big thumbs up. (Translation: batters make a ton of contact with it and you want to see something closer to 30% ICR).
In the end, I see a pitcher who was able to throw a ton of strikes with his four-seamer to promote a low walk rate, though his high 42% ICR (19th percentile!) is what caused his 4.32 ERA to balloon further than ideal. More growth is required in both command and arsenal to take the next step and I’m less of a believer he can do so than Woo. I still like Bryce – the four-seamer will keep him afloat and there will be many days where the secondaries work well enough – and the tiebreaker for me is the higher likelihood of a Cherry Bomb outcome than a reliable SP #2/#3.
58. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR, LHP)
Kikuchi is shockingly close to being a legit starter. 2023 saw a large improvement in two areas as the season developed, and there’s a part of me that wants to take a shot on Kikuchi taking that final step forward to becoming a stud arm.
The first shift is an obvious one. On May 7th, Kikuchi began moving away from his changeup in favor of a curveball that allowed him to cut his walk rate tremendously as the pitch returned a near 70% strike rate – far better than the 51% clip his changeup held against RHBs. While his curve still has room to grow (please, get just a little bit lower and find the zone more often against LHBs), it was a major improvement from his cutter and changeup of previous seasons.
The second is a trend for Kikuchi to throw more high heaters. His sub-40 % clip against righties in previous seasons climbed to 47% last year, which is still below average but possibly a sign of more to come in the year ahead. But Nick! He’s allowed so many HRs, why do you want him to throw more high pitches? Because his struggle to get the ball properly elevated is why he’s allowed so many home runs. Kikuchi’s four-seamer would be elite if he were able to locate it at the top of the zone or higher at will, featuring one of the best VAA marks of any starter in the majors and thrives with its 95+ velocity + excellent extension (its 15″ of iVB is low but doesn’t matter when paired with such a good VAA and extension at 95+ mph). Seeing Kikuchi have a mental approach shift to feature more high heaters (which makes sense to tunnel with the new curveball) could indicate that he’ll lean into more in the year ahead.
Mental approach isn’t everything, though, and if there has been one criticism of Kikuchi over the years, it’s been his command. Kikuchi’s fastball plots often look like shotgun blasts, while his slider and curve often land well over the plate and far from their intended locations. It very well could be a rhythm situation that we’ll only see for bunches during the year (he did hold a 2.69 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 27% strikeout rate across 77 IP and 14 starts in the heart of the 2023 season, after all), though I’m all for taking a shot at Kikuchi in drafts in the hopes he can get that four-seamer hiLoc% closer to 60% as he continues to lean on his slider and curve for strikes.
59. Luis Severino (NYM, RHP)
Severino is weird and simple at the same time. His four-seamer was crushed last season despite lower velocity and it’s pretty easy to see why – he lost 1.5 inches of iVB on his four-seamer. It could be that simple of a story, but then again, his slider and changeup were also far less effective and that’s where things get confusing. His slider lost 10 points of SwStr rate against RHBs and was crushed by LHBs, while his changeup was horrific against LHBs and the only saving grace he had against RHBs (phew).
There’s talk that Severino was tipping last year (I also noticed some myself with the speed of his delivery, but that’s a hard one to lean into as a hitter) and it’s possible that tweak will save his secondaries, though his missing iVB on the heater is the one that scares me the most, even if batters were more aggressive on the heater than ever before. Are the Mets a good enough crew to get it all ironed out? I’m not entirely sure. I also wonder whether he can nail down the low-90s cutter into his mix as well. I absolutely adored that pitch when it was cooking in late 2022.
At the very least, Severino’s price tag in drafts makes him an admirable late-round flier. After all, his velocity is still up, which showcases a lack of physical decline that is normally the hurdle for those cascading down from their peaks. Take a shot and see if Severino is able to miss bats again with both his heater and slider – if so, you suddenly find yourself having an SP #3/#4 for the cost of very little at the draft.
60. Lucas Giolito (BOS, RHP)
I feel like he’s so close yet we can’t trust him in drafts, nor do I believe we’ll see something brand new in April to convince us he’s a changed man on whom we can depend throughout the season. At the very least, his changeup is still a glorious offering at just 81 mph, getting batters to bend the knee frequently, and it is the lifeblood of his approach. Giolito injects a gyro-slider to earn strikes as well, which can be a stabilizer in his pitch mix at times, but sadly we saw too many starts in 2023 where it wasn’t as reliable as it needed to be. That leaves the four-seamer and that’s the big question mark for the future.
The crux of it all is a four-seamer that gets a ton of vertical break, but has such a high VAA, that it doesn’t miss as many bats as we’d like up in the zone. It means the pitch needs 94/95 mph and good command upstairs to get over the hump of success or failure. Yes, that’s why we saw so many home runs and why we don’t know what to expect moving forward. I do wonder whether Giolito can adopt a low fastball approach with his odd fastball characteristics – the Gallen approach! – though leaning on that outcome is too much wishcasting. The most likely ideal scenario is a season with 94+ mph heaters that carry a ton of hiLoc% as he pushes his changeup usage toward 40% instead of 28%. I have my doubts, but that’s what you’re hoping for from Giolito to avoid another cataclysmic 4.00 ERA season.
I should also add – now that he’s with the Red Sox, he’s sure to get the leash that you’re looking for with 90+ pitches per start and the team’s desire for a workhorse. In addition, Andrew Bailey & Kyle Boddy could be new additions to the coaching staff that give Giolito more assistance than he’s had on previous squads. However, will the Wins be there? Will Fenway’s dimensions inflate his ERA further? I’m willing to call it an overall wash, where his skill growth or lack thereof will matter far more than the situation.
61. Hunter Brown (HOU, RHP)
Hunter needed some time to figure himself out. Is he a low-ball pitcher? How should he use his slider? What about the curve? We saw ebbs and flows since the explosive debut at the end of 2022 and the poor end-of-season result was a product of fatigue, inconsistency, and experimentation.
Now it’s 2024 and I can see how this works, but it’ll take some tweaking. Brown’s four-seamer lost almost an inch of iVB from 2022, unfortunately dropping down to a good-not-great 16 iVB mark, which makes his elevated heaters a bit more hittable than ideal. But does he actually elevate them? That’s a great question. I sure hope he takes direction from Javier and Verlander to keep the pitch upstairs properly as his slider and curve play so well off that pitch when he locates effectively.
I’m not sure how well he can do that, though. Brown has days when he’s able to spot the heater, but there’s polish left with heaters to open the door for proper sequencing across his three-pitch mix (the splitter is saved for rare moments and the sweeper was a month-long experiment). What I find most interesting is his slider: It’s a pitch that can be downright nasty to LHBs with cutter-like velocity and horizontal bend along the inside corner, while sporting more gyro drop to right-handers. I love it when he attacks LHBs with it, though there’s still room to grow in utilizing the pitch effectively against RHBs down-and-away. If he can nail that + the high heater, then the curve he already saves for two-strike counts will be even more devastating, using both the tunnel of the heater and the window of the cutter to get chases out of the zone.
There’s a sense that it’s only a matter of time for Hunter and I’d love to take a chance on him in re-draft leagues given his youth at 25 years young with clear room to grow. That cutter is destined to debilitate batters for a long time.
Tier 9 – This Is Fine
They don’t belong in Tier 11, but you’re far better off chasing upside than settling for these, even if one of them could quietly put up a productive year across the board.
62. Aaron Civale (TBR, RHP)
The move to Tampa Bay was fantastic for Civale. Not only is the team context better, but they seem to have extracted the best elements of Civale, with possibly more to grow. There’s a new slider in the mix that carries fantastic PLV grades, his four-seamer has elite iVB (somewhat counteracted by low extension and poor VAA) that could be incorporated more as a two-strike pitch à la Zach Eflin, and the Rays have helped Eflin lean into high cutters with his massive hook landing low.
It all works and I’m surprised to find myself in a position where Civale could break the Toby mold into Holly territory with a potential 25% strikeout rate, evidenced by four of his final seven games tallying 34 strikeouts between them. There are some concerns, of course. Civale has failed to toss 25 games in a season across his five-season career, and I wonder if he can turn his cutter into the reliable hard-contact mitigator it should be – his command is good, but not among the greatest in the league. I see the nights of bliss being more rarities than consistencies, with sprinkles of frustration as well. The positives should outweigh the bad, and while I’d normally overlook him in drafts as not a major needle pusher, I’m warming up to Civale as a potential breakout candidate if the Rays can keep improving his strengths this off-season.
63. Shane Bieber (CLE, RHP)
My original assessment of Bieber back in October was simple. His 91 mph four-seamer was still over a tick down from his 2021 peak, his curve struggled with a sub 60% strike rate, the slider wasn’t a monstrous whiff pitch, and his new cutter helped, but ultimately turned him into a Toby who could continue to decline in 2024, especially with his recent injury history. Today I’m a little more optimistic. I underrated Bieber’s ability to do the Gallen approach: low four-seamers with a massive called strike rate (28% and 30% the last two seasons!) that allow him to go under the zone with breakers. He doesn’t have Gallen’s changeup, and the curveball command needs to improve to entice more than a 15% SwStr rate, but there is a world where he finds more strikes with curves and keeps the new cutter inside the zone to survive games. I see a pitcher who could improve to be more of a Holly in 2024, with command that should keep him off the wire for the most part. Let’s just hope the velocity doesn’t get worse next year.
64. Marcus Stroman (NYY, RHP)
As long as Stroman is able to find enough strikes, he should be fine. The Yankee infield defense is a touch worse than what Stroman had behind him with the Cubs, though I wouldn’t expect a dramatic increase in hits allowed, so that makes his rising walk rate of 9% the real issue of 2023. You may see a change of slider to curve in the data, but it’s the same pitch with a different name, which he features in tandem with his sinker as a nearly exclusive 1-2 punch against RHBs, while spreading the secondaries around against LHBs. And I hope that changes.
You see, Stroman’s cutter is actually legit. He’s able to command it deftly just inside the inner edge, inducing foul balls nearly 30% of the time while maintaining a low ICR, resulting in a fantastic 70% strike rate. THAT’S GOLD. It sure is, and sadly he’s turning to it under 20% of the time against LHBs. Axe the splitter that returned an abysmal 45% strike rate, save the curve just for back-door called strikes, and pair that sinker away (and surprise front-hips) with that dastardly cutter and you have yourself a deadly combo.
I see Stroman as a solid Toby arm with the potential to climb into Holly range if he’s able to harness his breaker against RHBs – a 60% strike rate with a sub 15% SwStr ain’t cutting it. In fact, I’d love Stroman to use that same cutter as a strike pitch over the zone away to RHBs, lean more on the sinker inside to RHBs, then use the breaker more under the zone to induce whiffs more often. Many of his contemporaries dream of having a 90 mph cutter with Stroman’s command and there’s more to unlock here.
Don’t reach for Stroman with the expectation of these adjustments, but consider him in your drafts as a solid volume arm who will likely hover at a 1.20 WHIP with a solid ERA.
65. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI, RHP)
If Pfaadt can command his pitches like this postseason game against the Phillies, he’ll dominate every time he pitches. Problem is, he rarely does and it’s a huge ask when entering your drafts. That said, Pfaadt’s sweeper is such a great offering that if he makes any sort of improvements across the off-season, there’s productivity every five days waiting. Maybe it comes in his four-seamer that carries a great low-arm angle and can excel when elevated, even with its middling iVB. Add some extra rise or heat or even consistency upstairs and that may be all he needs. The sinker we saw in the post-season to jam RHB hopefully makes its return as well, while the curve or change could take a step forward – h*ck, why not a cutter for free strikes? However, if it’s the same guy we saw in the second half last season, I worry. The elite sweeper can only do so much and relying on batters to stumble over hittable four-seamers is too tall of an order. Consider Pfaadt as a late pick in hopes of a clear step forward early in the year.
66. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI, LHP)
I still think about that 2021 season where Erod carried a 15.5% SwStr on his four-seamer. The pitch returned horrid 8% and 10% marks the following two years, and the answer is simple: He stopped elevating it. Eduardo’s four-seamer went from a 59% HiLoc% to flirting with 40% the last two seasons and as a result, his 27% strikeout rate of old has shifted fallen as well, to 18% and 23% strikeout rates.
But that’s not completely fair. 2022 was as strange of a season as any with an injury and personal issues that kept him off the field and last year came with an explosive first half that suggested there’s a plateau to potentially hit for a full season. After all, the end result of a 3.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP is incredibly acceptable and now pitching in front of the Arizona defense, there’s hope Rodriguez can maintain the 7.6 hits per nine he displayed last season.
Mmmm, I highly doubt that. Rodriguez returned a 99th percentile Hit Luck of -30 last season and his lack of four-seamer dominance reinforces the notion of his changeup and cutter feel working early + a fair amount of good fortune to return a marvelous six game stretch of 41.2 IP with a 0.43 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate. Wait, is that just 2 ER allowed?! Yeah, it was something wild. He also returned -17 Hit Luck in those six games alone and yeah, Erod isn’t this good.
Against RHB, Rodriguez’s changeup can be a strong nullifier, but it constantly goes in-and-out of rhythm. The cutter is mediocre in every sense of the word, hoping to land it as a called strike outside or jam inside just enough to return an out, and turns into a slider for LHB, a pitch that was able to jump to a 19% SwStr in 24% usage, but its 60% strike rate meant the four-seamer and sinker have to do everything else. The primary heater gets pummeled while the sinker had a…14.8% ICR rate?! Oh. Under 30 balls in play and Rodriguez uses it 2/3 of the time in two-strike counts as a back-door surprise pitch. That’s not the proper complement his slider needs.
The move to Arizona should help Rodriguez and I get the sense he’s going to be drafted in your 12-teamer and held throughout the season, whether it’s the right thing to do or not. In my view, he’s a Toby with moments looking like a Holly when the changeup and cutter come together + balls in play go his way. With his ceiling being a decent plateau and his floor being a destructor of ratios, I’m electing to pass on Erod for the guys in the next tier in many cases, though he’s an arm to consider when needing to pad your Wins or Quality Starts.
Tier 10 – Is This An Ace?
You want some late round upside? Here you go. Choose wisely – all of these could crash and burn or we can be looking back at this tier with regret for our hesistance.
67. DL Hall (MIL, LHP)
I completely thought Hall was destined for the pen with the Orioles and neglected to think about Hall much at all. However, now that he’s suddenly in the running to start for the Brewers (it sure seems like they traded for him to let him start), Hall becomes the kind of arm you go for at this range. Could it be disastrous? Oh, absolutely, but I was absolutely shocked to see him with just a 6% walk rate in 2023 across his short 19-frame sample. That alone should get you amped because, let me tell you, the stuff is good enough to be a legit impact SP in any league. It’s just about command at this point.
As a reliever, Hall was pumping 95/96 mph heaters, which could very likely fall down to 94 mph as he stretches out to be a starter, though I’m not concerned if it does. Why? Because he features both elite extension and elite VAA. We’re talking seven feet of extension and a 1.5 adj VAA, and those marks are glorious. Pairing that with a high strike rate makes me excited for his potential as the SwStr rates are massive behind that offering.
At first I thought Hall lacked a reliable secondary pitch against RHB, and while the small sample may be the true catalyst, Hall’s changeup performed well across the 61 he tossed in 2023. Batters struggled to make strong contact; he earned many strikes with a 31% CSW, and this allowed him to not rely on a slider he’s still figuring out how to locate.
Speaking of which, there’s polish left to add on that slider to LHB as well. It has solid gyro movement, but Hall is still refining its consistency to spot it down-and-glove side. It’ll earn whiffs galore when it’s located, it’s just a question of that feel will arrive.
And that’s really the big question with Hall. The arsenal is strong enough to be a Top 50 SP easily, but the large concern over the years has been his command. The low walk rate last year can be hand-waved given the low sample, and I need more convincing that his four-seamer is actually a 65-70% strike pitch. Wait, what gives you such hesitation? His delivery. Hall is a southpaw slinger, featuring a 97th percentile horizontal release point from the left side, which means he’s attacking the zone at a sharp angle that generally speaks to inconsistent locations and lower overall strike rates. It’s not a death sentence + I’m happy to report he doesn’t land cross-body, speaking to potentially more consistency than we traditionally see for extreme release points. It means that we draft Hall and watch closely. Is Hall able to locate well enough in the zone to get through at-bats or is he consistently fighting against himself instead of the batter? Don’t hang onto this too long if it looks apparent that Hall doesn’t have the command to make it work. Sidenote: I’m so excited he gets the Milwaukee camera angle that is PERFECT for lefties like him.
68. Triston McKenzie (CLE, RHP)
The thoughts we have on McKenzie should be exactly what they were entering 2023 as he missed nearly all season with a teres strain in his shoulder. What about the injury risk? Okay, fair. OUTSIDE OF THE INJURY RISK, McKenzie has a skillset that can grow into more as he gains time on the mound. You may be surprised to hear his four-seamer had the most iVB of any starter’s four-seamer in 2022, and paired with excellent extension, the pitch has been able to get away with more than the standard 92/93 mph heater. If he’s able to keep the pitch upstairs 60%+ of the time, it’ll jump from its 11% SwStr rate in 2022 to excellent marks.
Consistency has plagued him, though. The curve held a massive 22% SwStr rate with an elite 31% putaway rate as it fell off the table when paired with the heater, but there were many games where the pitch refused to find its location. When paired with a slider that needs more separation from the fastball and better command, it made for tough days on the hill.
A draft pick on McKenzie is all about growth. Hopefully he’s gained more lower-half mass to help create stability in his mechanics to consistently find his release points, which would turn him into a BSB darling. The foundation is there for dominance, it’s just about ironing out the Cherry Bomb tendencies and, you know, health.
69. Nick Lodolo (CIN, LHP)
You likely already know the ridiculousness of Lodolo’s 2023 season. Arguably the most unlucky pitcher of the season (even before getting a stress fracture in his left tibia that limited him to just seven games), Lodolo held a .440 BABIP, 13+ H/9, and a 2.6 HR/9 and it was a joke. Hilarity. Dumb. Push it all aside as you grasp who he actually is: a lefty slinger who may have a better ability than his contemporaries of locating his fastball inside the zone. His fastball (sinker turned four-seamer) has held excellent 22%+ called strike rates in both 2022 and 2023, utilizing his elite horizontal movement to nab the gloveside edge consistently against lefties and right-handers alike.
Normally I worry about side-arm southpaws, but I wonder if Lodolo’s heater is more reliable than the likes of Heaney and Manaea before him. Meanwhile, his breaker routinely earns well above a 20% SwStr rate, opening the door for a third pitch to be the glue that seals his approach. If his changeup takes form or a reliable cutter enters the scene, I can see Lodolo carving up batters as they guess which direction each pitch will go. I believe in this more than the wonky command of Greene or the questionable skillset of Abbott, and I’d love to take a shot on Lodolo early to see how he’s progressing. That said, I can see this progressing into a HIPSTER situation if the park does him more harm, the defense is still in question, and the offense doesn’t spark enough Wins. After all, Lodolo’s Hit Luck last year still had him at an 8.5 H/9 – still a bit too high for the WHIP to become a pleasant addition.
It’s all about where he goes in drafts. If the room is terrified, snag Lodolo in the later rounds when you have reliable starters in front of him. If you have to grab him as your SP #4/5, then Lodolo is too risky to take on.
70. Edward Cabrera (MIA, RHP)
Y’all. I don’t know what to do. When Cabrera is doing his thing – getting his four-seamer close enough to the zone at 97+ mph and not left over the heart of the plate, his breakers (I think most are sliders, not curveballs, but that’s just me) landing at the bottom of the zone, and 92 mph changeups not wildly missing arm-side – the dude is as filthy as they come. In addition, I don’t think his mechanics are so bad that command can’t come in the future. However, he just hasn’t done it yet. And as of right now, a pick on Cabrera is more likely to be a “HIPSTER” on your team rather than a reliable starter every five days. That said, if he’s able to make that tweak to find reliability in location, his ceiling is MASSIVE. We’ve seen leaps in walk rate in the past and his pitches innately have low ICR rates. It could be as simple as a shorter arm circle, or ensuring he stays true with his shoulder. Or those could be far off and he can’t make the tweak. It’s a gamble and I think with Cabrera particularly, it’s important to watch his spring and first start of the year. Understand whether he’s grown in command across everything and go from there. Does that mean you’re in on Cabrera? I guess I am now. Huh. I should also note, I’m not sure I believe in the Marlins development to get this sorted out – they have been great with changeups, but not with overall command. Keep your ear to the ground about Cabrera’s off-season workouts.
71. Hunter Greene (CIN, RHP)
I can’t do it. The strikeouts are destined to be there as the upper-90s four-seamer will continue to miss bats and set up an 87/88 mph slider that throws batters for a loop as they try to gear up for heat. The problem? Greene’s command is finicky, while the heater’s shape is pedestrian. It means that when batters are able to time the heater, its characteristics make it easier than others to square up and smack into play – not a great trait when you pitch in Cincinnati. It’s a major reason for Greene’s 1.5+ HR/9 in each of his two seasons and I don’t see it getting much better in 2024.
The slider is a great asset that will keep him in the majors and winning weeks for managers, though it’s not exceptional on its own and needs the fastball to thrive. I have less faith than with others that Greene will find a third offering or improve his consistency/fastball shape (cough extension cough) enough to bring down his walk rate and reach sub 8 hits-per-nine. The WHIP and ERA are sure to hurt once again without a bevy of Wins, and you should ask yourself, are the strikeouts worth it?
72. Nestor Cortes (NYY, LHP)
Health health health. He strained his rotator cuff early and was put on the IL, only for him to have one game and get sent back to the IL for the same issue. Yeaaaaah, shoulder injuries should not be taken lightly, especially rotator cuff injuries, and I have few expectations of seeing Cortes throw a hefty number of frames this year.
Skills-wise, Cortes’ four-seamer is still elite. The pitch returns elite iVB at 19 inches in concert with an above-average VAA that allows the pitch to chill at the top of the zone without fault. It’s a properly elite pitch and the reason for Cortes’ dominance in 2022.
It still performed well last year, with the real fault coming from his slider’s inconsistency, possibly a product of his barking shoulder. I dig his cutter inside to RHBs a ton and if you were able to tell me Cortes’ shoulder is fine this year and he goes every five days, I’d have him ranked somewhere in the Top 30 or so, if not higher. Sadly, I have little faith in that shoulder and I hate anxiety in my drafts. That said, if he’s hovering around the draft after you already have six starters or so, what the h*ck, go grab him and hope he’s healthy in the spring.
73. Aaron Ashby (MIL, LHP)
He missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury and aims to make the rotation out of camp. I feel for the lefty in the summer of 2021, though his 2022 campaign taught me a valuable lesson of fastball shapes and what makes a strong foundation as a left-hander. Ashby’s sinker jumped from an elite 26% ICR in 2021 to a middling 39% clip in 2022, a likely regression given the unsustainability of a sub 30% ICR for a primary fastball year-to-year. Nevertheless, if the slider was able to keep its elite marks of 2021, it would have mitigated the damage. Sadly, the pitch was far less tempting to chase out of the zone, dropping its strike rate by nearly eight points, while batters shellacked the pitch to the tune of a 37% ICR. Yikes. Yeah. That slider was everything for Ashby in 2021 and without it to lean on, the sinker had to do more. His changeup is still great, but the one-two punch of sinkers and sliders isn’t the viable combo we want, let alone the lack of whiffs from his sinker that require the slider (and changeup, for that matter) to push over a 20% SwStr rate to be a consistent 25%+ strikeout arm.
Now that he’s returning from a shoulder injury, the possibility of a full year should be out the window, and we can only hope his walk rates fall if he can get his slider back to its former self. Don’t count out Ashby if he earns a rotation spot. Just understand that he lacks that overpowering fastball to blow past arms, forcing his slider and changeup to be the reliable pitches late, and needing the Brewers’ defense to step up for all his sinkers that will be hit into play – his near 60% groundball rate is sure to be repeated, making that .325 BABIP and near 9.0 hit-per-nine the true culprits of his high WHIP. In summation (I miss ya Fast), Ashby doesn’t have SP #1 ceiling as he’s too reliant on weak contact ala Stroman types, doesn’t have two overwhelming secondaries, and doesn’t miss bats with his fastball, though he has a chance to go 25%+ strikeouts and allow more weak contact than his peers.
74. Kenta Maeda (DET, RHP)
Maeda is the perfect example of a pitcher who is getting overlooked inside the Top 60 arms, and simply because his rank is lower, we’re introducing a bias against him. And yet, he’s had 27%+ strikeout in three of his last four seasons. That’s it? Of course not. After battling injury, he returned on June 23rd and held a 3.36 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP over nearly 90 frames. His splitter and slider combo were working as well – the splitter had an absurd 46% O-Swing in that time – and now that he doesn’t have the same inning stipulations in his contract, I imagine the Tigers will let Maeda face the third time through the order more often than previous seasons, especially as the young Tigers will need all the innings help they can get.
75. Emmet Sheehan (LAD, RHP)
I kinda love Sheehan, but the problem I have is the comedy routine the Dodgers are sure to give him in April, mimicking these frustrating ice cream vendors. Will Sheehan start this week? Nah, that’s an off day. Okay how about now? Yeah sure. WHAT?! FOUR INNINGS?! You didn’t ask for more. I’m not sure I want the ice cream anymore.
But hot dang, if they let Sheehan properly start, I think he can be great. His low arm angle grants him excellent VAA on his four-seamer with solid extension that helped his four-seamer return just a 34% ICR against RHBs as Sheehan actually elevates his four-seamer. Dodgers, please keep your hands away from this approach. Sheehan’s heater also fared well against LHBs with his ability to land it inside often, though he may have gotten a bit fortunate as the pitch leaked out over the plate frequently.
His secondaries are where I’m hoping to see growth in 2024. Sheehan’s changeup flashed plus against LHBs with a 21% SwStr, though he struggled to wrangle it, resulting in many poor misses on and off the plate. He’ll need to bolster its 58% strike rate while bumping its usage to become a consistent producer against lefties.
We saw two different sliders from Sheehan last season, a rare sweeper scattered throughout the season, and a gyro slider that improved across his last three starts to become more of a weapon. In fact, it wasn’t until his final start of the year that we saw that slider look like a legit strikeout pitch, returning 7/28 whiffs and properly fueling a nine-strikeout effort in just 4.2 frames.
I love taking a shot on Sheehan at the very end of drafts as a pitcher who I’d like to monitor early in the year. If Sheehan is getting a helping of Dodgeritis as he either gets skipped or is limited heavily, then I’m moving on quickly. However, pay attention to his pitch mix and approach. If Sheehan continues to rack up slider whiffs while keeping elevated fastballs and polishes his changeup, he’ll be a hold for the full year for all your 12-teamers.
76. Jordan Hicks (SFG, RHP)
The Giants signed Hicks to add him to the rotation and I’m awfully curious what comes of it. The biggest hurdle is his strike rates: Hicks’ sinker barely climbed out of the sub-60% strike rate hole last season, while his sweeper hasn’t hit the 60% plateau before – and I’m not ready to throw that out the door in a transition to starter. There is hope that the new four-seamer he’s working on over the off-season will let him live more in the zone, where his elite 100 mph velocity (maybe more around 98+ when not coming out of the pen) can survive despite not featuring elite extension, iVB, or VAA.
All of that said, Hicks’s flashy heaters have routinely featured elite ICR marks that keep batters at bay. Even the simple adjustment of finding the zone more often with his sinker would result in solid results with a digestible walk rate and WHIP. His slider seemingly breaks the space-time continuum as it comes in 15 mph slower, but it may be too slow as batters have casually walloped the pitch, outside of 2022 against RHBs in a small sample. I can’t help but worry that the pitch needs more polish in order to suggest he can hold a 25%+ strikeout rate in a rotation spot.
I’m all for taking a chance on Hicks at the end of drafts to see how his control shapes up early and if he’s getting a long enough leash to go at least five frames early on. I’d still encourage a short leash in April if we’re seeing the same ole “thrower not pitcher” that is sure to induce a headache or ten, though Hicks may be one of those guys who finally finds his groove in June and stuns us for a few months. There’s potential here that shouldn’t overlooked in 12-teamers.
77. Taj Bradley (TBR, RHP)
If you’re drafting Bradley, be ready to jump ship early in your 12-teamers. But he has so much potential! He does, but it comes down to command and he struggled with it all season, and the odds of Bradley having poor command in early April and finding it shortly after isn’t worth the roster spot. Watch any game Bradley tossed in full and monitor your subconscious reacting to Bradley’s pitches. Is he controlling at-bats by spotting pitches? Do you have confidence he’ll throw a strike with the next pitch? Will it go where he wants it to? Bradley has fantastic stuff with one of the better rising four-seamers in the majors, and yet struggles to get it upstairs with frequency. His cutter has massive potential, but it becomes hittable far too frequently, while the deadly hook can’t sit low often enough.
The off-season is sure to be a time for Bradley to try every tweak imaginable to find consistency pitch-to-pitch, which means I’m not ready to completely write him off as a PEAS for the year ahead, but if the spring comes with the same fluctuations, I’m going to look elsewhere. The ceiling is immense as a Tyler Glasnow–lite, but you don’t want to be the guy who’s a year early.
78. Mitch Keller (PIT, RHP)
I want to love Keller. I really do and it’s difficult. His four-seamer earns whiffs, though it’s saved half the time for two-strike counts, propelling its whiff rate and lowering expected averages (strikeouts do that). Keller mixes in a sinker as well that doesn’t jam batters enough and often floats too far over the plate. The real winner of the repertoire is his cutter, a pitch that makes or breaks his starts. It’s the only offering with a sub 40% ICR rate while it earned strikes 2/3 of the time last year. When that 90 mph pitch is nailing the corner, batters are helpless, creating those double-digit strikeout games as it suddenly becomes both an early and late offering. There’s also a filthy slider that should dominate consistently as one of the premier sweepers, though he struggles to locate it well, often over-throwing it when trying to put batters away.
In the end, it’s possible Keller takes another step this year by figuring out his breaker while developing more consistency across his four-seamer/cutter/sinker mix. His hittability is a major issue that will stick around without an improvement somewhere and the Win totals are sure to be depressed pitching for the Pirates. I’m looking elsewhere in my drafts.
79. Alek Manoah (TOR, RHP)
What happened? His fastballs got obnoxiously worse and he struggled to earn strikes. In 2021 and 2022, Manoah dominated right-handers with his four-seamer and sinker. These pitches routinely allowed weak contact with stupid high strike rates while the four-seamer returned fantastic SwStr rates as well, allowing his slider to thrive down and away. He still had some issues with left-handers, but as long as he could continue to bully RHBs with fastballs, everything was fine.
He lost a tick of velocity in 2023 and the dam broke. Suddenly his 33% ICR four-seamer returned 52% ICR (oh no), forcing him to turn to sinkers instead, which were still decent but regressed as well.
Meanwhile, his struggles against LHBs were amplified, with all of his pitches failing him with low strike rates and demolition inside the zone. It’s refreshingly straightforward and believable that Manoah could return to form if he’s able to get his fastball velocity back (the shape is still good!), which should, in turn, give him the confidence to earn over 70% strikes on his fastballs again (not the 60% he had in 2023).
However, there is the intangible aspect of Manoah himself, who was inconsistent off the field as well. I hate to assume a pitcher is unable to focus and do the work needed for them to get back to their former self, though Manoah’s 2023 suggests it may be a bigger ask for him than others. It makes for a last-round flier you can assess in the spring (is he bullying with 94 mph heaters again?) and take it from there.
80. A.J. Puk (MIA, LHP)
The Marlins have made it clear they will stretch Puk out in the spring in hopes of having him as a starter, and I’m kinda stoked for it. Puk features elite extension and Adj. VAA that allowed the four-seamer to boast a 14% SwStr rate last season, despite not locating it with precision inside the zone (Puk, stop chucking it 62% in the zone at just 37% hiLoc! GET THAT THING UPSTAIRS as its iVB is terrible and needs the VAA to work best). It’s the foundation for Puk’s big sweeper that batters held just a 33% ICR against and routinely earned strikes, though I’d love to see that mark climb a little higher than 60%, especially considering that’s about all Puk has to offer.
A transition to starter seems great with those pitches, but with Puk’s questionable command, an expectation for worse four-seamer performance given the typical velo dip moving from pen to rotation, and lack of third option make me skeptical it’ll pan out consistently enough to avoid the dreaded Cherry Bomb level at its peak. And keep in mind, the Marlins rotation is technically full with Trevor Rogers‘ expected return.
All of that said, take a shot on it. Watch Puk have a new changeup to stave off RHB, embrace the BSB mentality, and run away with the job in the spring. The upside is tantalizing enough to reserve him as a late-round flier you can easily drop early without worry.
Tier 11 – Deeper League Toby
I don’t encourage chasing this for 12-teamers, but I recornigze they could jump to Tier 9 and are safer to grab in deeper leagues than Tier 10. To each their own, you grab what’s best for you.
81. Michael Wacha (KCR, RHP)
The changeup is unreal and his command + approach is fantastic, making me surprisingly dig Wacha more than I thought I would. His four-seamer has a ton of iVB, though its steep VAA does hurt it, making it more of a surprise upstairs pitch and something that can work low for called strikes instead. This is the Zac Gallen approach: If you have a steeper VAA on your heater with a high iVB, then you can steal low called strikes on your four-seamer, then pair it with changeups and curves effectively. And what do you know, Wacha holds a 21% called strike on four-seamers – good for 80th percentile in the majors.
There are small adjustments to be made with pitch selection here and there, and he does feature a much higher ICR% than I’d like across his arsenal, but 33% dope changeups will keep him afloat throughout the year (70% strikes, 33% ICR, 21% SwStr, 32% CSW… incredible. It can do no wrong). Like Lugo, the move to Kansas City should work for Wacha, especially given their tendency to let pitchers extend past 85 pitches and fight for six full innings, not to mention the drop in infield defense shouldn’t affect a fly-ball arm like Wacha as much.
Health is always in question for Wacha, though health matters far less past SP #50, where you’re happy to get any productive innings from the starters you draft at this point. If health is the biggest problem, then enjoy the production you get before the time on IL – far better than those whose quality is the question at hand.
82. Seth Lugo (KCR, RHP)
Lugo’s sinker is a lively pitch that destroys batters when it doesn’t leak over the middle of the plate. It’s rare to see whiffs on fastballs away and off the plate, but Lugo’s sinker can do that against left-handers, while it earns many chases on the handle of bats to right-handers. The big hook and sweeper do their part as well, though I wish I had more praise for his four-seamer and changeup.
Seriously, that four-seamer is not great. We’re talking a whopping 50% ICR last year, which means its incredibly high 71% strike rate may not have been the best approach, especially with its locations being well over the plate. It does have solid iVB and VAA marks, but there’s some tweaking to be made here to prevent damage, especially without the San Diego infield defense behind him to scoop up the near 50% groundballs he’ll induce.
Lugo is missing that one last piece to solidify the arsenal when his sinker can’t spot the edges, preventing him from elevating into Top 40 SP territory. The groundball focus makes his WHIP a touch higher than ideal (stupid grounder BABIP) and those needing volume should feel relatively safe with Lugo, especially with the move to Kansas City – the Win chances may be slightly depreciated (the Royals should be a better offense in 2024, though), while the park and division should help, even if there is a more balanced schedule than years past.
83. Braxton Garrett (MIA, RHP)
The 23%+ strikeout rate is unlikely to stick for another season as it was fueled by a ridiculous three-start run of 30 strikeouts in June. At his core, Garrett is a mini version of Cole Ragans, featuring a fastball (sinker) and cutter he uses to jam right-handers, a slider that is used half of the time as a strikeout offering, a curveball exclusive for early called strikes, and a changeup that…isn’t great. Obviously, Ragans’ stuff across the board is better, but his command is as well. Garrett has his moments like any “Toby” where he can get into a rhythm locating sinkers and cutters perfectly on the inside edge to right-handers, landing low sliders, and getting outs away with sinkers and changeups, but to expect him to run through a full season isn’t wise. He’s the perfect streamer or mid-season add when looking for some extra volume.
84. Jameson Taillon (CHC, RHP)
When considering Taillon, it’s best to throw away a lot of his 2023 season. His first half came with plenty of struggles, from losing confidence in his cutter, to injuries and lacking any sort of rhythm. I had the opportunity to sit down with Taillon in December (listen to the chat on our podcast network), where he opened up about his four-seamer, developing his sweeper, and adjustments he plans to make for next season.
It’s weird writing this blurb as I feel the numbers from 2023 don’t paint the picture of what to expect. His four-seamer was battered by right-handers as he left it out over the plate far too often, though I don’t expect the pitch to act the same next season. The potential is there for him to soar consistently across six frames, demolishing right-handers with a bevy of options – cutters down-and-away, sweepers off the plate, sinkers inside, and surprise four-seamers upstairs – while the key will be to create a game plan against left-handers. Taillon could return to the cutter inside, mixing in a new splitter, more sweepers, and four-seamers upstairs, it’s a matter of getting the work done this off-season to execute it next year.
What’s fun for me is understanding how Taillon could surprise many early in the year, allowing us to draft him late and paying close attention to his skill set early on. I really hope that four-seamers find their way upstairs consistently once again.
85. John Means (BAL, LHP)
Each year, there’s hidden value in the draft that goes to pitchers who deliver “Relevant Volume”. Not your guys who have a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, but who make 30 starts, give you 12-15 Wins, close to a strikeout per game, and an ERA and WHIP combo that is better than what’s on the wire. Means could be that guy…if health allows him. The team context is on his side, he has the tools in his arsenal to string together six innings comfortably (it’s a fantastic changeup, a four-seamer that can earn whiffs upstairs, and a slider + curve that we’ve seen steal strikes in the past), it’s simply a matter concerning about his elbow inflammation in late September after a return from not only TJS, but a back injury as well.
Sadly, the raw skills don’t scream “breakout” like they used to. His velocity came back at 91/92 mph, not the 93+ we saw in 2021, while the development we were anticipating on his breakers back in the spring of 2022 was back to square one. I have some small concerns about location consistency as well, rooted in Means’ delivery tilting him toward third base, forcing a bit of wobble on release instead of geared straight toward home plate. It prevents him from getting on top of his changeup, while also affecting his ability to locate high-and-tight fastballs to right-handers. It’s something that can be overcome in time once he gets into a rhythm, though.
Means is an arm to consider to pad the end of your rosters, someone may find himself sticking around far longer than you expected. The home run rates of old will be lower given Walltimore’s existence, while the Wins could pile up quickly. The moment health gets in the way, though, it’ll be wise to cut your losses.
Tier 12 – The Possible Spring Pickups & Some Old Guys
Monitor all these pitchers in the spring to see how their abilities have changed since last year + check if they’ve earned a spot out of camp.
86. Tanner Houck (BOS, RHP)
Houck has it set against right-handed batters. It’s a sinker/slider combo that eats up batters on both sides of the plate. Sinkers go backdoor and inside to earn called strikes and weak grounders as its elite drop and exceptional horizontal ride make it a worm-burner that nullifies power bats easily. They set up his two-plane slider that carves up strikeouts down-and-away with ease, while confidently landing over the plate as well. It’s filthy and RHBs are in trouble against Houck.
However, those are the only skills Houck brings to the table, which doesn’t quite work against left-handed bats. He’s tried a splitter, but that pitch was demolished and returned a poor 53% strike rate last year – a mark I wouldn’t expect to rise given the pitch’s difficulty to perfect. His four-seamer is a pitch that should be permanently shelved in all but two-strike counts when he can surprise batters up and out of the zone, and his cutter doesn’t do a whole lot. It’s possible the latter can be refined with time and turn into a reliable strike offering against LHBs, while the slider could become the back-foot threat Chris Sale made famous from the opposite side.
The Red Sox seem determined to give it a shot with Houck and we’ll see in the spring if he’s able to find a good plan of attack against lefties as the sinker/slider should continue to keep him afloat against the majority of hitters. I wouldn’t classify Houck as a stellar command arm, though, and it makes me concerned he won’t be able to find the right groove to rid himself of the dreaded Cherry Bomb label. However, to his credit, that sinker helps him generate quick outs, which helped him reach the sixth more often than expected. Just figure out a better cutter or changeup, please. That’s the last piece Houck needs to keep him locked in the rotation indefinitely.
87. Charlie Morton (ATL, RHP)
Morton’s walk rate jumped plenty last year and it’s a product of his cutter taking a major step back from a near 70% strike rate pitch to just 59%. Throw fewer reliable strikes –> you’re gonna have a bad time. That 1.43 WHIP is ridiculously high, though, and it’s hard to believe Morton is going to return as a 40-year-old without making some adjustments.
Here’s what I would do. Morton’s four-seamer is rough. It’s a dead-zone heater that found too much of the zone, allowed a ton of hits with a high ICR, didn’t get whiffs, held a middling 29% CSW, and is sure to disappoint again. Instead, I’d lean into the arm-side movement of his sinker and do everything to get the dang thing inside to right-handers, while keeping curves in the zone and cutters away. Reverse the plan for left-handers: cutters gloveside and curves for strikes, while utilizing the changeup more as it carries plus drop and fade.
Nick, what do you know? Yeah, that’s a great point. I’m not sure what we’ll get from Morton, but he’ll likely have a strikeout rate above 20% and flirt with 25% as he’ll go 40%+ curveballs once again, while I can only hope he figures out the rest of his repertoire to improve his walk rate without making his hit rate climb. Few places are better to pitch for than in Atlanta though, right?
88. Erick Fedde (CHW, RHP)
Look who it is. Don’t Trust The Feddes, right? I think so? If we get the Fedde from 2022, obviously we want nothing to do with this. However, he spent a year in the KBO where he was the best pitcher in the league, to the tune of 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts in 180.1 frames. But that’s the KBO! Very fair, though Fedde is not the same pitcher of old. Eric Longenhagen broke down many of the changes Fedde made, including better control, an improved slider feel, a new splitter for whiffs, a sinker that generates more sink and grounders, a cutter to jam left-handers, and a four-seamer that can hit 96 mph, creating a complete five-pitch mix. That outlines a Toby in my book and if you’re searching for volume, Fedde is sure to get a ton of innings for the White Sox, especially with what should be a much-improved strike rate (and thus walk rate). I’d be kinda intrigued about it, though the Wins will be difficult to come by. Not the worst last-round pick, especially if Fedde goes the opening weekend – he’d get the Tigers and be a super sneaky stream. If Fedde looks mediocre there, you can swap him out at the first FAAB period to a younger arm who hasn’t even made a start yet.
89. Trevor Rogers (MIA, LHP)
Rogers should not be ignored. He had just four starts in 2023 and then disappeared to injury for the rest of the season. Injury risk Nick! At the price point of drafts (read: FREE) injury risk means nothing. If he’s starting out of spring and inside the Marlin’s rotation, chase the upside. His 93 mph four-seamer could return to its 94/95 velocity from 2021 and I adore that he split his fastballs into high four-seamers and low/LHB-jamming sinkers with elite arm-side movement in the few games we saw. His changeup is still fantastic and his sweeper could be a reliable strike pitch. The tools are there, it’s more about health than anything. Watch for him sitting 94 mph (and hopefully a reliable slider?) in the spring. If it’s there, I’m circling him in drafts.
90. James Paxton (LAD, LHP)
Paxton to the Dodgers makes all the sense. Sign a pitcher to take over for April while Buehler ramps up, and then by the time Paxton inevitably gets hurt or fatigued, Buehler slides in to take his place. I kinda love taking Paxton in my drafts given his showcase of quality in his early starts each season before his body fails to keep up with his desires to pitch six frames. The team situation is great, he’s likely to pound 95/96 mph heaters that effectively dodge damage due to elite extension, and if he has his curve and/or cutter working, you’re going to get bankable production while you’re searching for long-term options on the wire in April. Just don’t hold on too tightly once he stumbles, okay?
91. Ricky Tiedemann (TOR, LHP)
Impressive Triple-A debut for Ricky Tiedemann tonight.
4 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K#NextLevelpic.twitter.com/sm7FQNsnDO
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) September 23, 2023
I remember seeing Tiedemann last spring training and believing in his 99 mph heater paired with a vicious slider that can go back-foot to RHBs. I’ve since cooled down a bit on him given the questionable shape of his 95 mph heater (it was a max velo of 99 mph, sadly) that features extremely low iVB marks, and I worry that he doesn’t have the pristine command required to maneuver it around the zone to set up his deadly breaker and his changeup that returned fantastic Stuff+ marks in Triple-A. The Jays have been slow with Tiedemann throughout the minors (justifiably so after he was impacted by a shoulder injury last season), which splashes cold water on the idea of Tiedemann appearing in the rotation early in the season. That said, the moment he appears later this year – who else do they have to replace a starter in the rotation? – he’ll be an instant pick-up. I sure hope that when the time comes, he throws enough strikes and is able to keep the velocity up without shoulder soreness impacting him. Is he someone to stash in 12-teamer drafts? I’m leaning away from the idea given how long you’ll likely be waiting and sacrificing a valuable roster spot in April. That’s up to you, though.
92. Reese Olson (DET, RHP)
Olson is super fun. His slider is filth McGee and is sure to carry him again in 2024 as his go-to pitch in any situation, while I can see him take another step forward with his changeup, a pitch that falls off the table and has massive whiff potential. Expect a better strike rate in the year ahead as he gets more opportunities to get its feel.
The real question is his heaters. The four-seamer just isn’t good at all – poor break, low extension, terrible locations – while the sinker performed well as its aggressive arm-side movement was able to land on the inside edge roughly half the time. If Olson can favor the sinker more and create difficult at-bats as he avoids the heart of the plate, you may find yourself rostering a shockingly efficient starter with a 25% strikeout rate in the depths of the draft. I generally don’t like going for pitchers without strong four-seamers, but this sinker/slider/change combo looks legit, especially when baking in general development.
93. Garrett Whitlock (BOS, RHP)
Unlike Houck, Whitlock has both elements he needs: a devastating two-plane slider that destroys RHBs and an elite arm-action changeup that comes with a 10-inch drop vs. his sinker – all that allows him to handle RHBs and LHBs alike. The problem? His sinker isn’t nearly as good as Houck’s. He’s battled injuries. His slider and changeup make too many mistakes. That’s three problems. WHATEVER. That sinker was a better offering in the past, but Whitlock’s tendency to stay away for called strikes instead of jamming inside doesn’t help the situation, nor does its mediocre movement and dip in velocity from ~95 mph to 93/94 last year.
Whitlock does carry some of the best extension in the game, though, which allows him to get more out of that sinker than the usually low-to-mid 90s heater, and amplifies the effectiveness of his secondaries as batters have less time to react to their aggressive movement. Rhythm is truly what Whitlock needs most at the moment, and it pains me that I feel the Red Sox will not give him the security of a #5 spot out of camp. It’s possible Whitlock soars and forces Houck (or Koufax forbid, Crawford) to the pen, but we’ll likely have to wait for an opportunity to arise elsewhere before Whitlock gets another shot. When that does happen, we can only hope he’s given a long enough leash to find that rhythm of his secondaries while spotting sinkers well enough to turn into a pitcher reminiscent of the peak Cleveland Guardian days, destroying batters with two 20%+ SwStr pitches and a “good enough” fastball.
94. Lance Lynn (STL, RHP)
Lynn is simple. He’s fine against LHB with a four-seamer, cutter, and changeup mix that doesn’t make us swoon, but it generally survives and that’s far better than many other starters outside the Top 50, and even some inside it. If you’re familiar with Lynn, you know it’s all about the four-seamer and let’s talk about that thing, specifically against right-handers.
He’s throwing the heater 1.5 ticks slower with a steeper VAA and more cut action and it’s killing him. He still misses an exceptional number of bats with it – 20% SwStr rate with the precision of keeping it just above the zone – but when it misses his spot inside the zone, batters are punishing it far more than they used to. 2021 featured a sub 30% ICR for his heater, leading to a magnificent 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP campaign that even came with stumbles out of the gate. The number grew in 2022, but it ballooned in 2023 to 46%, which can’t happen for a pitch that earned strikes over 70% of the time. The gamble of throwing strikes didn’t pay off, leading to more harm than help, and the real difference is that the velo is down to 92.5 instead of 94+ while the pitch shape has made it easier to pummel inside the zone.
We can talk about his cutter and sinker all we want, or even the slider, change, and curve that constantly fail to earn enough strikes, but the heart and soul of Lynn is a heater that incessantly bullies batters upstairs without the massive risk when he misses his spot. With a degrading four-seamer and not much else to lean on, I can’t get behind Lynn for 2024. There’s more to change than approach or mentality, sadly, and it’ll likely get worse before it gets better.
95. Kyle Harrison (SFG, LHP)
I’m terrified. Harrison’s four-seamer has some great attributes, including an elite VAA with great extension that makes his 94 mph heater perform exceptionally well when elevated properly – 55% hiLoc against RHBs led to a 14% SwStr against them and there’s still room to grow. The pitch fares far differently against LHBs, though, with an astonishing 4% SwStr as he featured the pitch arm-side a bit too much while not nailing his spots around the zone nearly as well.
That can get better, right? Maybe, though his mechanics suggest a slinging southpaw and y’all know how I don’t like those. Harrison comes across as more of a “thrower” who is battling his mechanics rather than the batter in the majority of at-bats. This makes it tough for me to expect massive growth in his second season. Sure, he’ll have those games like the Reds start (and he didn’t even locate that well there), but he has Cherry Bomb written all over himself given the volatility of each individual at-bat.
There are other offerings here, and there’s a chance there’s development in his curve or change or even a brand new offering that allows him to stay ahead of batters. Sadly, that hook isn’t impressive enough to be a proper complement to the heater and that changeup is as rough as it gets. A pick in Harrison is believing the four-seamer will take another step forward this year, including its polish around the zone, and I’m not ready to do that.
Tier 13 – The Only IL Stashes To Consider
I’m not one to do IL stashes at all, but if you have IL spots and unlimited moves, you have nothing to lose. Shallower situations, I’d tell you it’s not worth it.
96. Jacob deGrom (TEX, RHP)
He’s the best pitcher on the planet. Seriously. His command is fantastic, even if it’s mostly just four-seamers and sliders, but both pitches are the best in class and are spotted brilliantly to make the start feel like it should be a historic one. It’s unclear when deGrom returns, though he’s worth the IL stash simply for the clear swing in your favor if he’s able to return before the season’s end. But how good will he be when he returns? Even if it’s not the far-and-away SP #1 as he was before, there’s so much room before “not worth it” that we shouldn’t be asking that question.
97. Max Scherzer (TEX, RHP)
It’s four-seamer/slider with a sprinkle of changeups against RHB, four-seamer/cutter/change/curve against LHB, and it’s getting worse each year. The changeup used to be a major nullifier against LHBs pre-2020 and has since struggled to earn the same whiffs, though it still mitigates hard contact well as it fights with a 60% strike rate. His slider took a massive hit last season, falling from its standard 26%+ SwStr rates against right-handers to a mortal 19% in 2023, with far higher ICR as well. It may have been a product of batters jumping on the pitch earlier in counts (21% Early Ball In Play rate is awfully high), as the pitch’s attributes and locations were in line with career norms.
I dig Scherzer’s cutter against LHB and his curve can be flipped in for strikes against both batters, though that four-seamer isn’t the destroyer of worlds it used to be. An 11% SwStr to RHB in both 2022 & 2023 after a history of 14%+ rates (18% in 2018!) is a huge part of Scherzer’s degradation process, while it still allows too many home runs.
With Scherzer now missing half of the season recovering from back surgery, he’s already going to fall to the end of drafts as an IL stash. I have no problem drafting him – he should help your team when he does return – though keep in mind that there is a lower and lower floor every year with the soon-to-be 40-year-old Scherzer. You may get two months of top-of-the-line production as he lays it all out of the field, but without the fastball and slider of old, he’s not the same guy.
98. Drew Rasmussen (TBR, RHP)
Rasmussen didn’t undergo TJS in favor of a hybrid internal brace that will allow him to return sooner than a traditional TJS procedure. However, it still speaks to a mid-season return, and you can expect many to stash him coming out of drafts. His cutter is supreme with stellar marks across the board, and he sports a rising heater with exceptional cut that destroys left-handers and a slider that looks destined to rack up whiffs. He’ll likely get the “Tampa” treatment upon return, though, limiting him to just five frames or so for a fair number of starts. Be prepared for it if you elect to tuck him away for months.
99. Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)
We don’t expect Ray back until July at the earliest after undergoing TJS in early May 2023. I’d be a little cautious of his ability when he comes back given Ray’s breakout came when he finally learned how to throw his fastball inside the zone after years of struggles. The last element to return from TJS isn’t velocity but command, which could mean your season-long investment as an IL stash may be fruitless for another few weeks even after he returns.
100. Clayton Kershaw (FA, LHP)
NICK, HE’S NOT ON THE DODGERS. Pfffft, he’s gonna sign with them in like June or something and don’t act like you think otherwise. I’m fine stashing Kershaw at the end of your drafts if you want, but I guarantee you there will be a time during the year you’re going to need that IL spot and drop Kershaw. Don’t forget – the Dodgers will likely limit him in his first start back and you won’t even want that start after the long wait, making an even harder situation of “do I hold for the next start or drop him?” after holding him for months while he repairs his shoulder. I’d rather take a flier there instead.
101. Dustin May (LAD, RHP)
Instead of traditional TJS, May underwent UCL revision last July with the hope he returns near the All-Star break. You can IL stash him if you like, I wonder if it’ll be too much of a hassle, though if he’s able to wrangle his cutter and sinker out of the gate, he’s sure to help in September when the Dodgers will want to ramp him up for the playoffs.
Tier 14 – GIVE THEM A JOB
These are mostly prospects who become pick-ups if they get confirmed for a starting gig. Some at the bottom are more suspect then others, and sadly, I don’t believe any of them have a positive chance of actually starting out of camp..
102. Paul Skenes (PIT, RHP)
Paul Skenes' Stuff from Tonight. pic.twitter.com/HzBaOD0tIn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 16, 2023
Skenes is an auto-pickup the moment he hits the majors. His four-seamer sits in the upper 90s and is complemented with a true sinker and a big sweeper that excels with his lower arm angle. I have some worry about his mechanical consistency that could return command questions upon entering the big leagues, but his build and obvious skill set make this a “pick up and find out” the moment he arrives. Drafted in 2023 and with two games in Double-A already, I imagine the Pirates could call him up as early as May – there’s little reason to rush his arbitration clock with a spot out of camp. You can stash if you like, just be aware the Pirates have many reasons to be patient here.
103. Cade Horton (CHC, RHP)
Cade Horton ranks 67th on @BaseballAmerica updated Top 100 Prospects list. Horton went 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K on Wednesday for South Bend. Primarily pairs a mid-90s FF w/ an extremely vertical spin axis (12:15) & a mid-80s sweeper. #NextStartsHere pic.twitter.com/uDTyzOliTu
— Geoff Pontes (@GeoffPontesBA) June 8, 2023
Here’s the Cubs prospect you should care about. As Geoff outlines below, Horton’s 94/95 mph four-seamer has great spin efficiency (12:15 is the time on which his fast-seamer spins, 12:00 = perfectly spinning in the direction of four-seamer = best for iVB), with a filthy slider he relies on plenty. There’s still room to grow with his curve and changeup, though these two pitches set a fantastic foundation that Cade is sure to build upon.
104. Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET, RHP)
I really like Gipson-Long… when he gets the chance to start. I see him as the clear #6 at the moment with Olson’s extended look in 2023, even if SGL was able to accumulate 119 frames across the minors and majors last season. He’s got a sinker he can land in the zone for strikes, a decent four-seamer that can be elevated, a fantastic jack-of-all-trades slider, and a changeup that can demolish batters when it’s working. Think a Logan Webb type without the same level of polish and less reliance on the changeup. He’s a possible stash out of the gate and a clear pick-up once he gets a gig.
105. Prelander Berroa (CHW, RHP)
Here I was, demoralized and resigned to my fate to watch Berroa turn into a relief arm for the Mariners in 2024. There’s no room. They said. Why would they let him start? They said. And then the light shone through. Suddenly hope appeared as Dipoto gave me a blessing I never anticipated. Berroa not only was traded, but he was dealt to a team in dire need of something electric in their rotation as they piece together a season, twiddling their thumbs until their front office actually does something good for the team. The Chicago White Sox.
Let me tell you all the good things first. When I watch Berroa, I see Cristian Javier with more velocity and a better slider. His heater comes in at around 96 mph (maybe 94/95 in the rotation?) with great iVB and a flat VAA with good extension (the FAN-tastic Four qualities that outline a potential four-seamer to elevate to fan batters) that forces me to emit noise when it blazes by bats, and then he mixes in a devastating slider in the upper 80s. Wait, did I say mixes in? My apologies, I mean wants to throw it more than 50% of the time. Hey, when it’s a filthy slider and you can land it in the zone decently well, you throw it a lot.
But, um, the dude walks guys a ton. We’re talking 14%+ traditionally in the minors and when we talk about prospect pitchers, a major red-flag is a high walk rate. But we’re also talking about 35%+ strikeout rates, too. It makes Berroa out to be a maddening Cherry Bomb type, AND YET I’M EXCITED. Look, I get it. You don’t want to chase Berroa because A) There’s no guarantee the White Sox even stick him in the rotaiton B) Berroa pitched few than 100 frames last year and C) That command is clearly suspect. That’s absolutely rational and fair and you’re likely right.
HOWEVER, I watch Berroa and see less mechanical disaster than expected with those walk rates and hot dang, he feels far closer than other mega-walk fellas I’ve seen to find a balance to get that heater upstairs while that slider is the stabalizer in and out of the zone. It’s possible and sitting here, outside the Top 100 SP, you have nothing to lose. Take the chance, make it happen. POP THAT CORK, FINGERS SNAPPING.
106. Tylor Megill (NYM, RHP)
I still wonder if Megill can turn into a Bailey Oberizzi type of arm with a heavy emphasis on his four-seamer upstairs and a decent slider and changeup underneath it. He gets such good extension that is unfortunately paired with a decline in both iVB and VAA from 2022 that his four-seamer featured ghastly marks on both, and that limited its effectiveness. That said, he was able to perform better with it down the stretch of 2023 and if he’s able to have a strong off-season and develop further entering 2024, we may see him force his way into the rotation early in the season. Don’t ignore Megill based on his horrific 2023 marks – if he’s painting the top of the zone red with heaters, there’s hope for a strong six-inning arm with a strikeout per inning.
107. Mick Abel (PHI, RHP)
Here’s a full inning of work from Phillies prospect Mick Abel. pic.twitter.com/zCfEhcH5tP
— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrown0914) March 3, 2023
He’s good, but not the kind of prospect that interrupts your evening to pick him up when he gets the call. His heavy reliance on a slider/cutter (it’s a filthy pitch) mixed with a 93/94 mph fastball can work (97/98 in the spring, but that was adrenaline), which suggests he can be more of a Toby to Holly arm as he mixes in changeups and cutters as well. That might work well for fantasy purposes when he arrives – I consider Abel the true 6th option for that – and I wouldn’t be surprised if it came with a fantastic start or two that inflates his value a little too much in the small sample. Keep your expectations tempered and hope he can handle the bigs decently enough when he gets his shot.
108. Max Meyer (MIA, RHP)
When I watched Meyer’s MLB debut in 2022, I wasn’t too impressed. His four-seamer came with cut action (yikes) and his approach of 50% sliders was good but not great. It’s not the kind of pitch that bowls you over, instead being used as a strike pitch, destined to be a decent whiff pitch that is more of a table-setter than a dominator. I am curious whether we see a new version of him now that he’s healthy again, and I have to imagine the Marlins will give him an early shot in the rotation once a spot opens up. Not a terrible spec add when that happens, but not someone I’m jumping over the mountain for when the time arrives, let alone stashing him in my drafts.
109. Robert Gasser (MIL, LHP)
Gasser?
That's about right.
No. 8 @Padres prospect Robert Gasser fanned eight over seven innings of no-hit ball for the @TinCaps. pic.twitter.com/tRaB4iG2QY
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) June 19, 2022
He’s a lefty with a low arm angle but without the slinging tendencies of someone like Heaney, Manaea, or Harrison. The highlight is a fantastic slider that debilitates left-handers, though he struggles with right-handers, who hit all 12 of his allowed longballs in 2023. The solution may be the four-seamer, which sits at just 92 mph but can explode at the top of the zone with Gasser’s low arm angle. It doesn’t get the ideal iVB, but the elite VAA may make it a pitch to bully batters. He’s working with a cutter as well that could develop into the nullifier to right-handers, though a changeup is likely the missing tool to complete Gasser’s approach. Hopefully, the walks stay low, comfortably under 10%, and with a touch of development with the heaters and secondaries, Gasser could earn a rotation spot early for the Brewers. There’s some intrigue, even with the Shag Rug ever-present.
110. Drew Thorpe (SDP, RHP)
Drew Thorpe highlights he has a nasty changeup pic.twitter.com/ilKqbNNxb9
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) December 6, 2023
Thorpe is the fourth pitcher here who came over from the Yankees in the Soto deal (How will we replenish our rotation? Aha! Get all of them for Soto!) and after pitching Double-A this year, you may see him aggressively promoted by the Padres if he’s comfortable in Triple-A early in the season. As a command-focused, changeup-first pitcher, I generally avoid prospects like these in their rookie year – the heavy majority of impact arms in your 12-teamers carry either a dominant four-seamer that bullies batters or high-velocity breakers – though the reports on Thorpe are glowing, including Eric Logenhagen’s review, labeling the elite changeup as similar to those of Hellickson or Estrada. Even at the lower velocity, Thorpe may be a sneaky Toby play with the defense behind him, and if he develops another secondary to confidently get strikes (or dare I say whiffs against RHBs!), I can see how he earns your pick-up relying on low-90s sinkers instead of powerful four-seamers.
111. Connor Phillips (CIN, RHP)
Here’s the thing. Phillips’ four-seamer ranked just below Hunter Greene’s four-seamer in Stuff+ and ranked better with his slider. Why aren’t you using PLV instead? Because his locations were terrible. The four-seamer has brilliant pitch qualities – 96/97 mph velocity, elite VAA, elite iVB, solid extension – but the fella struggled to get the dang thing upstairs. If Connor can consistently elevate, it will demolish batters, while his slider’s shape is fantastic and – guess what – also wasn’t well commanded. The curve can help and fall into the zone at times and is a strong offering when it works, but you get the drill.
I included Phillips into the “Expected Starters” (along with Williamson) despite having five (Update, now SIX. Ugh.) arms already locked in because he’s a step up from the Fringe arms and will absolutely get playing time this year. When Phillips gets the chance, I hope we can throw away the small 20 IP sample we saw in favor of an improved approach and command (yes, approach. It didn’t seem like he embraced his four-seamers’ potential for elevation), turning him into a legit arm for fantasy managers everywhere overnight.
112. Joe Boyle (OAK, RHP)
Here’s the thing. You’ve seen the 98+ mph four-seamer and know that pitch is legit. It has the iVB, solid extension, and surprisingly decent VAA to go with it and yet…just an 11% SwStr rate in his small three start sample. Why? Because the fella can’t command consistently. His minor league walk numbers are laughable (we’re talking 19%+ y’all. That’s BANANAS) and watching him pitch his three games displayed incessant struggles to execute. If he can somehow find a way to make this fastball carry a 60%+ hiLoc, it’ll be a stupid overpowering pitch, especially paired with an 89 mph slider that falls off the table to make a phenomenal BSB that Tyler Glasnow dreams of.
There’s even a curveball in the mix in attempt for early called strikes as well, creating a package that is all ready to go if only the command could be relied upon. Put the Athletics as a team aside, if Boyle can execute reasonably well, this is a starter you want on your team. Do I believe he will? Sadly, no. He’s likely a HIPSTER at best for 12-teamers and a desperate dart throw for 15-teamers, where his low win chances are sure to keep him off many draft boards regardless of the potential.
Tier 15 – Grab Bag Of Intrigue
I can see all of these starters returning value in some way in 2024, though most of them are headaches where you can’t tell if it’s working out, or they have too many questions to answer that make it a low chance to come through to justify a draft pick.grab bag
113. Andrew Abbott (CIN, LHP)
I see how it can work. Abbott’s four-seamer isn’t an elite offering, but when he’s able to attack right-handers inside with it, the pitch opens up his deadly slider, while a developing changeup (31% putaway rate last year?!) can stabilize into a routine gavel to propel outs and send batters strolling back to the dugout.
The biggest worry is that heater. Even during his absurd start to his MLB career (1.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 28% K rate, 8% BB rate, 96% LOB rate lol), there were many moments of questionable fastball command that burned him in August and September. Is that fastball enough of a foundation in a poor home park to allow his slider and changeup to thrive? I think so…? I have seen far worse command in my day and while his heater doesn’t jump off the page with its shape, the four-seamer is still above-average enough that he can elevate it with two strikes effectively. Generally, rookies have better command in their second season and I wonder if Abbott comes into himself more in his sophomore campaign, making an intriguing late grab in leagues. This feels like a higher floor than other arms at this point in drafts.
114. Griffin Canning (LAA, RHP)
It’s rare to find a solid four-pitch mix late in drafts, especially paired with a 25%+ strikeout rate. Canning’s well-rounded arsenal pairs a 94 mph heater with a stellar low-80s curveball, a lateral 90 mph changeup, and an upper-80s gyro slider, all of which can earn whiffs when executed. There are a few warts, however. None of these pitches are exceptional mitigators of hard contact, a product of questionable command that has Canning fighting with his arsenal often, hoping to execute the right pitch but falling behind or allowing his heater to fall into the zone at inopportune times.
I love Canning’s reluctance to throw heaters and I hope it continues. He dropped the four-seamer to just 33% usage in 2023, though I was surprised to see his curveball fall to just 13% usage – I consider the big hook his best offering, as his favored breaker (his 29% usage slider) isn’t as sharp and held a near 40% ICR last year. At the very least, a more even split makes the most sense in my view.
All in all, there is a world where Canning gets into a rhythm with all four pitches for a long stretch, prompting solid ratios and strikeouts, though I worry that his propensity for the longball + inconsistent health will make it difficult to trust him outside of great matchups. If only there was a little more dependable electricity in his four-seamer or breaking balls.
115. MacKenzie Gore (WAS, LHP)
Hey look, another pitcher I’m awfully conflicted about! On paper, Gore has all the things of a sleeper: a four-seamer with excellent shape that can explode if he tweaks its approach (great extension and iVB, good VAA, 95/96 mph velocity) + a big hook that lands low + a slider that can be relied upon to find strikes and whiffs. However, there are two major problems in his way. First, there’s a touch more polish left to apply to his command which has him battling himself more than the batter in some games. It’s sure to make him more of a volatile pitcher than a true “breakout” pitcher if he were to come into his own. Second, he pitches for the Nationals. And this devastates me.
As I mentioned with Josiah Gray, I have a theory the Nationals encourage their starters against throwing high four-seamers. It means Gore held a ~50% hiLoc on his fastball when it should be 60%+, if not higher. This pitch was MADE to be elevated, especially with his slider and curveball falling underneath. And the Nationals aren’t letting him do it. IT’S MADDENING.
That could change on a dime, though. And if Gore embraces it, that 25% strikeout rate could turn into 30% overnight, while the walk rate could keep falling from 12% in 2022, 10% in 2023, and possibly 8% in 2024. The potential mixed with volume is there (well, the Wins that normally come with volume may not), it’s just a matter of that approach shift that I’m not sure we’ll see.
116. Casey Mize (DET, RHP)
Mize is an unknown as he returns from TJS and should earn a rotation gig out of camp. I’d be disappointed if he had the same skillset we saw in 2021: zero pitches above a 13% SwStr rate with his slider acting as an overall strike pitch, a middling 93 mph sinker, a four-seamer that was often saved to elevate in two-strike counts (inefficiently), and an occasional splitter that held a 20% CSW. It’s an exciting time in March when we get a first look at the new man after healing from TJS, though I’d temper expectations. He has a whole lot to change to become a stable fantasy arm – I don’t expect his .254 BABIP-driven 1.14 WHIP to get replicated with his sub-20% strikeout rates. Something has to make us move up in our chairs.
117. Jon Gray (TEX, RHP)
Gray breaks the Huascar Rule. It’s that simple. His four-seamer is simply not good enough, even at 96 mph, for us to believe it’ll avoid damage on a given night – near 50% ICR against right-handers – even if his slider is a legit offering. It performs better against left-handers as he elects to feature a changeup over 15% of the time, which keeps batters a little more honest on the heater.
That paragraph alone should make you terrified of drafting Gray, let alone all of the interruptions he’s had over the years that have stunted his mini-stretches of looking like an ace (you know, the times when he’s able to spot his fastball well enough to avoid punishment, allowing his slider to destroy). I can see myself jumping in when he’s sitting 96 mph and spotting the heater around the edges while the slider racks up whiffs, then dropping him once he falters or misses a start for whatever reason, and I’d avoid in my drafts as he’ll be a headache out the gate.
But the new slider! Ah, right. He did change its shape a month into the season, turning the slower sweeper into a tighter, 87-89 mph gyro. The thing is, it had similar results regardless of the shape and movement. Its new movement did increase grounders, which limited home runs but increased his overall hits allowed (that’s the trade-off of flyballs vs. groundballs, y’all), and it’s a wash in my book. I’m still out on this.
118. Reid Detmers (LAA, LHP)
I wish I still had the same enthusiasm for Detmers that I had in the spring. Unfortunately, I’ve become pessimistic that his four-seamer can be the dominant pitch we want it to be. Its shape is mediocre, which explains the drop of SwStr this year to 10% despite 87th percentile hiLoc% and an extra tick of velocity. His curveball does a great job of limiting hard contact (27% ICR!) with a 35% CSW, though he doesn’t command it incredibly, acting more like a surprise pitch than a big chase pitch (low 23% O-Swing rate). Meanwhile, the pitch that got me excited initially – a gyro slider that he featured 32% of the time in 2023 – simply isn’t reliable enough. Its 19% SwStr in 2023 showcases the pristine moments, but it gets pummeled constantly. We’re talking 11th percentile ICR at a whopping 46% rate paired with a scary sub-10% called strike rate. In other words, when the pitch is in the zone, batters are swinging aggressively at it and doing damage. Not a good combination.
There was some hope in September for Detmers. A new changeup was introduced, utilized over 20% of the time across four games where he returned just six runs in 24.2 IP. The offering gives some much-needed balance to Detmers’ approach, though it’s not enough for me to suggest he’s found the last missing piece to outline stable success. His command + questionable four-seamer make for too much worry to chase in drafts, unless there’s something new for us to latch onto in the spring. Nick, he had something to latch onto in the spring for two years. Okay that’s fair. Good luck.
119. Chase Silseth (LAA, RHP)
If the Angels don’t add a fifth starter, I believe Silseth will start the season in the minors or as a long reliever now that Ohtani is gone, limiting their need for a six-man squad. Many of you recall early August, wondering whether Silseth had become a star after fanning ten Yankees, then twelve Mariners just two starts later. Sadly, he returned just fifteen strikeouts for the rest of the season, starting three games before a terrifying comebacker to the head had him on the sidelines until September 29th. 2023 aside, Silseth’s success comes from a slider and a splitter, the latter of which appeared in the 12-K game and rarely otherwise (12/29 whiffs came from that game alone), while his four-seamer and sinker lay a rough foundation to build a reliable starter. He’s a Cherry Bomb with the poor heater and over-reliance on two breakers to get it done and y’all know by now I hate relying on those for my rotations.
120. Matt Manning (DET, RHP)
I was fortunate to go on the Detroit Free Press podcast and Mark Darosh said something that didn’t sit right with me at the time. “I think of Zack Wheeler when I see Matt Manning.” It didn’t make sense – Wheeler’s four-seamer is one of the best in the game and Manning’s is…blegh? Well, I see it now, but in the end, we’re both right. Manning’s mechanics are similar to Wheeler’s, with similar elite extension and great VAA on his heater. The problem? It comes in 2-3 ticks slower than Wheeler’s while boasting a sub 40% hiLoc% – good for 5th percentile in the majors. Yikes. It does mean that if Manning can nail down an upstairs approach and find a little extra velo, then there is a legit ceiling to be had. That’s something, right?
The slider is arguably better than Wheeler’s, too. Its 99th percentile PLV isn’t rooted in its whiffability but its immense zone rate, along with a low 32% ICR that enabled Manning to get through more games than his currently pedestrian four-seamer would dictate for other pitchers. Sadly, the curve and change do little to affect the rest of the approach and you have a pitcher who had a massively fortunate season (98th percentile BABIP, 85th percentile HR/FB) with a 16% strikeout rate that requires a large shift in ability for growth. Oh, and he hasn’t started 20 games in the majors yet, almost forgot that one. If he’s sitting 95+ in the spring, he has my attention, but I doubt we’ll get there.
121. Clarke Schmidt (NYY, RHP)
Schmidt has all the tools he needs to have success as a starter and hold rates under a 4.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP – a mark he held in the valley of the season from May to September across four months. Righties have trouble dealing with his cutter and sweepers over the zone, while they whiff often against the lateral breaker and a big curve that could improve with another season in the bigs. I wish he would save his sinker a bit more, turning away from the pitch over the plate and simply sitting inside as the only pitch that goes the opposite direction. Its 31% usage against righties last year is a touch too high and a cut to 20% for jamming batters would allow his secondaries to dominate more frequently, while amplifying his inside sinkers more than ever.
The real issue is against lefties and I hope Schmidt can take a step forward with his approach to fix it. Without a four-seamer or changeup (that 3% usage slowball doesn’t count y’all), Schmidt features away sinkers around 20% of the time (blegh) and his sweeper gets pummeled when it doesn’t get taken for a strike. That leaves his cutter to do most of the work getting strikes, while his curve is mostly saved for two-strike counts down-and-in, which wasn’t as successful as you’d like to see.
That said, he’ll certainly get another full year in the rotation, given the haze around Rodón and Cortes, unless both are healthy out of the gate and the Yankees add another starter. At the very least, he’s incredibly likely to get regular starts at some point before the end of May. I think this regular playing time can do Schmidt a ton of good to get into a groove with that curve and cutter, helping him dampen his biggest weakness. Maybe throw more curves outside two-strike counts and focus on them a little more toward the middle than hugging down-and-glove-side?
If we see Schmidt every five days with the Yankees, he’s a solid 15-teamer play, with Toby consideration for your 12-teamers given his 20-25% strikeout rate + solid Win chance with the Yankees. They’ll need him for at least five frames if not hoping to get six consistently. You could do far worse at the end of drafts than Schmidt.
122. Nick Martinez (CIN, RHP)
JUST LET HIM START. I say it tongue-in-cheek, but Martinez’s final 22 frames as a “starter” came with goose eggs, led by a Marco Estrada tribute of a changeup that returned a near 50% O-Swing and flirted with a 30% SwStr rate. It’s stupid good, while the days when his curveball hit the bottom of the zone were bliss. His high 80% iLoc (inside location) on his sinker is what you want as he went either front-hip to LHB or jammed lefties, but sadly there’s one last piece missing. Those three offerings are solid, but he’s missing either a four-seamer or cutter/slider to dominate the zone. His cutter was atrocious with a 52% ICR (I didn’t know they went that high) while the four-seamer wasn’t much better.
If Martinez can unlock a mid-80s slider or find a way to steal effective strikes with fastballs, he could be gold. Maybe he goes Logan Webb and pushes the changeup to 50% usage, sporting rare sinkers and curves, and calls it a day. Just stop throwing the cutters and four-seamers, okay?
123. Jhony Brito (SDP, RHP)
Brito is an interesting one. His sinker does a great job living inside with 96 mph velocity and excellent arm-side run, and I adore his command to sit there consistently. He saves the four-seamer for two-strike counts, which doesn’t work since his delivery is incredibly over-the-top and the pitch has poor vertical break, leaving the changeup and curve as his only options as a putaway pitch. Sadly, the curve is a 12-6 without the depth you want to see, forcing his changeup to do all the work. If he can become more consistent with the slowball against RHBs, there’s some upside there, though it soars against LHBs and should continue to do so at 40% usage. In short, he’s a sinker/change guy who needs a cutter for LHBs and a sweeper for RHBs, neither of which I have faith in given his arm-side break on his four-seamer and high vertical release point that makes a sweeper difficult to get around properly. I wonder what development we’ll see on a breaking ball, though if he unlocks one, there’s legit upside to be had as an innings eater. The sinker and change are a solid foundation, he just needs that whiff pitch against righties and one more option against lefties.
124. Logan Allen (CLE, LHP)
If you’re looking for an innings eater at the end of your drafts, Allen could fit the bill. There are times when his 90/91 mph heater finds the edges, allowing him to set up an at-times devastating changeup and a big breaker, which allows him to earn about a strikeout per inning in the process. However, that heater can get tagged a fair amount, forcing him to lean more on a cutter halfway through the season, a pitch that few would write home about.
All in all, it’s just a bit boring. We don’t draft Toby types and I imagine Allen will be drafted in QS leagues, but his high hit rate merged with a likely dip in strikeouts will make for a frustrating experience unless he finds a rhythm early.
125. J.P. France (HOU, RHP)
The assumption is that France has the #5 SP spot above Urquidy entering the season, and if that holds, there’s value to be had. Despite France featuring four-seamers nearly 50% of the time and the pitch getting torched by batters on both sides of the plate, his secondaries make up plenty of the slack to keep his head afloat in a great situation for the Astros. RHBs are served cutters for a 70% strike rate that keep batters at bay, while sprinkling in a slider that carried a shockingly low 53% strike rate against those batters last season. Expect France to make the adjustment to not bounce as many slide pieces and get more out of the pitch to help stave off RHBs against his struggling heater.
LHBs get a different look of changeups and curveballs, each boasting a phenomenal sub 30% ICR. I adore France’s confidence in his changeup, frequently taking advantage of aggressive batters when behind in counts, while the curve’s sub 60% strike rate leaves me wanting a bit more from his best breaker.
France isn’t primed for a breakout campaign ahead of him. His four-seamer is far from a foundation to build upon, while his quartet of secondaries lacks the electricity needed to ascend the ranks, likely keeping his strikeout rate comfortably under 20%. However, the Astros provide all the benefits of potential Wins and solid defense that can turn France into a decent streaming play, if not a back-end option for 15-teamers in desperate need of volume.
126. Frankie Montas (CIN, RHP)
The Reds added Montas in a surprise signing, suggesting they may move into a six-man rotation for the spring – it makes sense given the massive injury history across the staff, the limited workload of Martinez as a starter, and Abbott’s youth – or Montas may not even be fully healthy himself given his long recovery from his shoulder injury and the fact he was sitting 2-3 ticks down in his brief appearance at the end of 2023.
But let’s say Montas looks like his 2021/2022 self in the spring. Who is that guy and what does he bring to the table? Right-handers saw sinkers inside, four-seamers saved for two-strike counts (down-and-away with a near 17% SwStr rate, oddly enough), sliders that don’t bite like the slider you want it to be, and Gotcha! splitters that missed plenty of bats when executed well in two-strike counts. Even during the down year of 2022, Montas still kept right-handers in check with this approach, with that sinker doing so much work earning outs with a 70% groundball rate as it sat inside and off the plate.
Left-handers are the problem and will likely be so again for another season. His sinker is used too often away – y’all know I hate away sinkers to opposite-handed batters – and it returned a 45% ICR, while his splitter’s usage ramped up to 33% (standard affair for opposite-handed batters) but returned a sub 60% strike rate in the process, while dropping from a glorious 26%+ SwStr in 2021 to sub 20% in 2022. He’ll have to retain that splitter and hopefully find the precision of his four-seamer to go up-and-in to keep batters off that sinker.
The Yankees introduced him a cutter in hopes of keeping LHBs at bay, but Montas failed to locate the pitch consistently, while his slider tried to be a back-door offering for called strikes. It never locked in and it’s hard not to have doubts that Montas will struggle in this department once again.
If we see Montas smoking 95/96 mph heaters with ease in the spring, there’s hope he can be a massive value in drafts as many are quick to label him as a boulder tumbling down the peak. Montas is at his best when he pairs these heaters with a consistent splitter and a slider that finds the zone often enough, which can come in waves as well. It’s unlikely Montas finds a rhythm for the full year, though there could be pockets of gold along the way, with 6+ starts and solid ratios. Don’t overlook it just because injuries have tormented him.
127. Sean Manaea (NYM, LHP)
Manaea is a weird one. He went to Driveline the previous off-season and found himself with a major velocity spike to 93/94 mph (even hit 97!) after years of struggling to keep his head above 90 mph. However, he struggled in the rotation early for the Giants and was banished to the pen until September, when he was brilliant. His four-seamer had a 17% SwStr rate out of nowhere across 24 frames of 2.25 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with a…oh. 19% strikeout rate. At least that four-seamer held a 14% SwStr rate with a 70% strike rate over the full year against RHBs, though its 44% ICR leaves a lot to be desired. It needs to be more than it currently is and that’s a big ask.
His slider and changeup still need work, as well, with the slider failing to dominate LHBs as you’d want it to and the changeup held a sub 10% SwStr rate against RHBs. It’s a product of Manaea’s wonky overall command like your standard slinging southpaw. Some may be hyped that the Mets are giving him a proper shot in the rotation, though it’ll likely come with a small dip from his peak velocity while it’s asking too much for the secondaries to take a step forward without anything else regressing. He has HIPSTER written all over him and that’s the best-case scenario.
128. Jack Flaherty (DET, RHP)
2023 Stats
I ask you a question. What is Flaherty’s best pitch? It’s obviously his slider. I think so too, and yet, it’s had just one season of his four where it carried an ICR below 40%, and even that was a pedestrian 37% clip. Its SwStr rate fell to just 13% last season and the rest of the repertoire needs work. Flaherty’s four-seamer has cut-action and little iVB, which means its flat VAA has to do too much heavy lifting, and may work better to jam left-handers while staying low and away to right-handers in hopes to freeze them when looking for the slider. Honestly, it’s hard to find the path for Flaherty that isn’t “throw a better slider, find a better third pitch than your curve, and try to sneak in more four-seamers for strikes and out of the heart of the plate.” That just sounds like general advice and something he’s tried to do for years. Sure does. Uh oh.
I’m not sure what role he plays. The signing implies that the Tigers will give him a chance, putting him over Mize or Olson in the rotation, allowing the Tigers to get the most of their money before pushing arms they still have options on. Get ready to be upset.
129. Michael Soroka (CHW, RHP)
I don’t really know what to say about Soroka. We’ve barely seen him since his 170+ IP 2019 season, dealing with injury after injury, then just 32.1 IP last year that were all kinds of weird. He suddenly earned four-seamer whiffs with 60% hiLoc despite terrible shape on the pitch across the board. He’s still jamming RHBs with sinkers as well, with a decent slider away, and a changeup that should perform better over a larger sample against LHBs.
The big pro here is the situation: Soroka is going to get all the opportunities to eat innings for the White Sox, finally getting the canvas he’s been seeking for the last four years. I loved him back in the day as a young arm in a great situation and absurd command for someone his age, suggesting he’d develop better than your typical rookie. However, now that he turns 27 in August, time is running out and the skills aren’t there yet. He’s an arm to be aware of for 12-teamers as a possible early pick-up if he’s hitting the edges effectively and working more than a two-pitch mix for each side of the plate (changeups vs. LHB, sliders vs. RHB). 15-teamers, I’d consider Soroka as a dart throw near the end as someone who could surprise us with decent ratios and a 20%+ strikeout rate. The White Sox will win some games, right?
130. José Urquidy (HOU, RHP)
Urquidy is the only arm truly on the fringe (I apologize, but I refuse to write about Brandon Bielak) with Garcia and McCullers both resting on the sidelines and Shawn Dubin waiting in the minors (he may see some frames here and there but I wouldn’t anticipate as a proper starting option with his high walk rate). As for Urquidy, his four-seamer used to be a solid offering, earning flyballs galore and avoiding massive punishment, but it returned a horrific 51% ICR vs RHB last year. It’s a product of two problems: Urquidy’s struggles to earn strikes with his slider against RHBs, which allowed batters to sit heater constantly + his massively increased hiLoc% from near 50% to well over 60%. But wait, he has 19 iVB on his four-seamer! That’s BONKERS! It does and is the catalyst for his high flyball rates, but even with the elite iVB, his ghastly VAA and extension mixed with low-90s velocity degrade its potential. I’d actually suggest Uruqidy go the Zac Gallen route of low four-seamers, stealing called strikes low in the zone and setting up the changeup, as the heater is too hittable upstairs even with the vertical movement. It makes me wonder if we can throw away the poor 2023 campaign and specifically look for his slider to find the glove-side edge more often in concert with low heaters to make it all come together again for a solid year. Keep an eye on this.
131. Yariel Rodriguez (TOR, RHP)
Yariel Rodríguez WBC highlights for your viewing pleasure, Blue Jays fans. pic.twitter.com/P89OaQIC9i
— Shawn Spradling (@Shawn_Spradling) January 17, 2024
Instead of reading my blurb on Yariel, you should read this fantastic debut piece from Shawn Spralding, outlining Yariel’s journey. He’s mostly a mid-to-upper 90s four-seamer arm with a legit sweeper, though there is a curve and change in the mix as well that suggests Yariel could be the sixth option for the Jays this season as he’ll likely work in the long relief role initially. That said, with the haze around Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann coming out of camp, Yariel is a dark horse candidate to steal the SP #5 role if he looks ready to limit walks as a rotation piece instead of returning to the power reliever he became prior to the WBC. Pay attention to Yariel in March.
132. Garrett Crochet (CHW, LHP)
There’s some hype around Crochet getting an audition for a rotation spot in the spring and I’m waiting to see more from Crochet. Back in 2021, before he got TJS, Crochet’s four-seamer had some promise, featuring elite extension and 97 mph paired with a high 16.8 iVB…but its low VAA and poor locations made it return a sub 10% Swstr against RHBs. That pitch was worse in the brief 13 IP sample was saw of him, featuring 14 iVB with the same extension, VAA, and velocity. Considering the pitch was already missing polish, I’m concerned it will hold back Crochet across starts frequently. The allure is in his filthy slider, which should still miss plenty of bats, but without another secondary pitch to support the four-seamer (he has expressed zero command of his changeup thus far), it’s easy to classify Crochet as a Huascar Rule and move on. All of that said, we may see Crochet in the minors to start the year as he stretches out as a starter, and we could have the luxury of getting a look at his fastball and #3 pitch development before making a decision.
133. JP Sears (OAK, LHP)
A PLV darling who Kyle Bland calls “the lefty Paul Sewald“, Sears receives a favorable grade on his four-seamer due to a super-flat arm angle, and the pitch explodes at the top of the zone. The thing is, Sears is still working on locating that four-seamer consistently upstairs, with just a 50th percentile high-location (hiLoc%) in 2023. We’ve seen games where the pitch earns double-digit whiffs when he can pound the top of the zone with the offering. His mechanics are far more centered than other southpaw slingers, suggesting more growth for consistency than the typical “just locate it better!” young arms.
He backs it up with a poor changeup that doesn’t get enough drop and finds too much of the zone to be reliable, though if its zone rate drops below 35% (maybe even 30%?), it could turn into a putaway offering or a nullifier against right-handers who are aggressively trying to get out in front of his four-seamer. The true #2 is a big sweeping slider with a movement ranging from cut action to massive back-foot Sale-esque break. There’s high whiff potential here as well, making the heater/slider combo a very legit one given more time on the bump. There are worse dart throws for 2024, especially with Sears comfortably locked into the rotation for an entire season in a low-pressure environment. The Wins are unlikely to pile on, though you should expect at least five, with an outside chance at 10 if he can string enough six-inning starts together (the Athletics are not going to get shut out every game, y’all). Consider him more for 15-teamers instead of 12-teamers given the volatility here.
134. Brady Singer (KCR, RHP)
I’m not a believer in Singer and honestly, I’m flabbergasted by his approach. He’s a sinker/slider guy nearly exclusively, relying on sinker called strikes glove-side (to both RHB and LHB) while he does a fantastic job of keeping his slider down consistently, mostly glove-side. What does he throw arm-side? Nothing. What. Okay fine, a changeup 13% of the time to LHB, but it has a 48% ICR and 45% strike rate. Wait, so a higher ICR than strike rate… THAT CAN HAPPEN?! I didn’t know either.
Singer does a solid job against right-handers given how good his slider command is. If you can consistently spot that thing out of the zone and right on the corner away, you’re going to make your fastball better as batters are so conscious of that slider. Both pitches return well under a 40% ICR there, even without his sinker jamming batters. It’s kinda weird that more right-handers don’t lean out and focus intently on taking away the outside corner, but hey, it works.
Here’s where it gets interesting. I went into this expecting two things: Singer’s two-seamer to have elite arm-side movement and his slider to be elite either in glove-side or vertical movement. IT IS NONE OF THOSE THINGS. Honestly, I actually wonder if Singer should be focusing on a four-seamer instead of a sinker. He carries a great VAA and elite extension, while the lack of horizontal run on the sinker and higher-than-average iVB on the sinker makes me wonder what his four-seamer shape could be (he didn’t throw a single one last year and the few in 2022 may be misclassified).
I don’t expect that to happen, which means it’s gonna be more sinker/slider for another year, with little promise of that changeup becoming anything legitimate. Start him against right-handed lineups, sit against quality lefties. It’s that easy.
135. Ryne Nelson (ARI, RHP)
As little excitement as I had for Nelson during the second half of 2023, I can see how he could easily flip the script in 2024. Despite the sub 10% SwStr numbers, his four-seamer carries excellent vertical break at 94/95 mph, which could outline dominance if he’s able to raise its 37th percentile high locations – get that pitch upstairs (maybe with a tick of more velocity?) and suddenly he’s bullying batters left and right. His slider also speaks to far more success if he brings it out of the 12% usage dungeon, which we did see across three of his September outings with 20%+ usage. The breaker’s elite 24% ICR, solid PLV, and 60% strike rate speak to being the proper #2 Nelson needs moreso than the cutter and changeup. I do worry a little about his command, though more time on the hill making small tweaks with the timing of his front shoulder could smooth things out quickly. With the Diamondbacks likely needing Nelson every five days out of the gate, I’d pay attention to his development. He’s not a lost cause as we see with many other young arms after a season or two.
136. Tyler Wells (BAL, RHP)
Technically, I should have Wells in the next tier as the Orioles could continue to keep him in his September bullpen role for the year ahead, especially with three (if not four including Kremer) arms with inside tracks to a starting spot + the high chance of the Orioles adding one more arm across the winter. BUT HE SHOULD START. The fella was fantastic through the first four months of the season with a 3.18 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate through his first 104.2 IP until fatigue set in, affecting his mechanics and it led to an option to Triple-A until he returned in a relief role.
The stuff is good but not the catalyst for his success. Wells’ pitch separation is key with a four-seamer he elevates more than most and carries exceptional rise, paired with a filthy changeup armside, a cutter to backdoor left-handers and steal strikes away against right-handers, and a slider + curve to steal strikes down-and-gloveside. Wells is able to move around the zone well, though mistakes with the 92 mph heater in the zone can burn him, as well as the cutter that floats into barrels and changeups that don’t get low enough. Still, we saw what he can do when he’s in rhythm – it was deserved success, for the most part – and I truly hope he demands Baltimore to give him another shot as a starter. He fits there far better than in relief with his wide arsenal.
137. Chris Paddack (MIN, RHP)
Think back to 2019. What was Paddack’s best attribute? His fastball. Great answer. Some may say it was his Vulcan changeup (read: split-change), but it all went through the heater. And hey! He returned from TJS and was throwing 95/96 mph out of the pen! THE SHERIFF IS BACK IN TOWN. Spoiler alert: He’s not.
Sadly, PLV had that heater last year at an abysmal 4.44 PLV, a product of the pitch’s mediocre pitch shape. Wait, I thought it was elite! Sadly, it’s not. Paddack features solid extension, but its iVB and VAA do it few favors and let’s be honest, Paddack isn’t going to be firing 95/96 mph bullets after moving from the bullpen to the rotation.
At least he still has a good changeup, though we still don’t like the breaker and I’ve lost the energy to go more into detail. I sincerely hope the Twins give Varland the chance before Paddack to start, as Paddack seems best suited for the pen with his lack of arsenal depth and pedestrian four-seamer. This ain’t it.
138. Graham Ashcraft (CIN, RHP)
Oh Ashcraft, the perfect example of a PEAS. His slider grades so dang well as the pitch can come in at 91 mph with above-average drop and sweep, making it a premier breaker when he’s able to spot it properly. What about the rest of his repertoire? He throws a 96 mph cutter! Yeah, it’s really a four-seamer with a lot of cut and he doesn’t know how to wield it. If Ashcraft could get the pitch gloveside to left-handers or back-door it low, merged with down-and-gloveside against right-handers, he’d be filthy.
But he can’t. Ashcraft has these moments of bliss where the cutter isn’t elevated (please, stop trying to make that a thing. It’s a gift for batters as it falls into the barrel) and he pairs it with the vicious slider. There’s also a sinker that has little to no horizontal movement, turning into a dead-zone heater that grades as one of the worst pitches in the majors despite the 96/97 mph velocity. Oh about that. Ashcraft’s poor extension takes off about two ticks (give or take) off his pitches, making said sinker the meatiest of meatballs when it isn’t perfectly spotted just off the edge.
In short, if Ashcraft can actually stay low, he’ll be a groundball fiend in the exact park you should be a groundball fiend, with potential for strikeouts with that amazing slider. But that’s a massive IF as command has never been a skill of his – even when he was performing well last season (and let’s not talk about when he wasn’t performing well…that was the roughest May I’ve ever seen). This is too much of an ask, but if you want to take a shot and watch his first game, go right ahead. There’s always a chance.
139. Ryan Weathers (MIA, LHP)
You know, there’s some intrigue here. Back on the Padres in the spring, his iVB (induced vertical break) numbers were stellar, before they declined rapidly through April. Coming to the Marlins, he posted a phenomenal final outing of the year against the Pirates where he was able to pound the zone with 94/95 mph heaters (he hit 96.7!), earned plenty of whiffs on a slower breaker, and displayed a solid changeup. We often ask “How do we find the next [2023 stud] in 2024?” and Weathers is a perfect example of needing to grow just a bit here and there to become something legitimate. It’s a huge ask, but it’s possible if he works across the off-season to add a tick of velo with a focus on limiting his arm-side run and more iVB on the heater. His new slider works, while the changeup’s velocity gap in concert with a similar look to the fastball makes it outperform its PLV. Pay attention in the spring to see if Weather’s fastball took a step forward or not.
Tier 16 – Volume is Volume
Oh look, you have a job and you can actually give me some value sometimes. Also, if you haven’t already, it’s wise to start ignoring the actual ranks now. I’m going through and grouping mostly, and if you disagree with a grouping, let alone a few number ranks, I get it. It gets much harder to properly rank when the expectations for everyone are so low.
140. Wade Miley (MIL, LHP)
I have to hand it to Miley. The approach works and I think because he’s not going to strike out 20% of batters, he gets overlooked a bit. There’s a reason he’s held a sub 4.00 ERA in all but one of his last six seasons (14.1 IP of 2020 is the only exception) and his WHIP fell to a fantastic 1.14 mark last season…with a glorious .236 BABIP that should rise, though his 34% overall ICR was 95th percentile in the majors.
He does it with fantastic command. His cutter busts right-handers inside and surprises back-door while against left-handers, he lands it comfortably in the zone; he saves four-seamers to shock right-handers inside and left-handers down-and-away; his slider takes down left-handers; his changeup earns all the outs down-and-gloveside to right-handers…it’s all there for the crafty left-hander, save for the big hook that only shows up a handful of times. There is one major downside, however: his pitch counts. The Brewers limited him to just 81 pitches per game in 2023, forcing him to go just over five innings per start. It’s frustrating for those in QS leagues, while it also limits his Win potential. Consider Miley as a deep 15-team add to help with ratios and hope he sees the sixth inning more often this year. For 12-teamers, he’s just a streaming option and nothing more.
141. José Quintana (NYM, LHP)
Quintana is a command-focused arm, who made a few changes in 2023 as batters adjusted to his 2022 approach. After using four-seamers upstairs to both LHBs and RHBs, Quintana was forced to put the heater back in the zone against LHBs, while his four-seamer was suddenly destroyed by RHBs as it lost a tick of velocity, jumping from a sub 40% ICR to north of 50%. Rough times.
It forced him to incorporate more changeups against right-handers at the cost of a few extra walks, while the curve against left-handers also took a step back, with a dramatic plummet of its SwStr from 24% to just 11%. Fortunately, the sinker stepped up to take more of the burden of outs, though it cut into his strikeout rate.
It’s possible Quintana finds that hook again and can regain some velocity, but as a 35-year-old, it’s a tall order to get extra hop on your four-seamer. This is likely going to get worse before it gets better, making his 3.57 ERA look like an idealistic goal rather than a reasonable task. Those viewing Quintana as a conservative arm in 12-teamers will likely be disappointed, especially when they’ll be able to snipe him off the wire for a weak opponent or two during the summer months.
142. Zack Littell (TBR, RHP)
At the moment, Littell has a fair shot at the Rays’ rotation, though he’s at most a desperate streaming option for a Win chance and not in consideration for 12-teamers and questionable for deeper formats. Littell leaned into his slider as a starter, featuring it 40% of the time despite not boasting elite marks (10% SwStr rate?!). He pairs it with a decent heater that he elevates well and an occasional splitter that held just a 42nd percentile SwStr rate and…that’s it. There are days he can go BSB with the heater and slider and go six frames of decency, though I have to imagine there’s more to chase here.
143. Cody Bradford (TEX, LHP)
He was given some opportunities when the Rangers badly needed it in 2023 and you can feel their heavy sighs months away when they inevitably give him the pearl in the first inning when there’s no one else to turn to. He features excellent extension and excellent iVB on his heater, but its 90 mph velocity and horrible VAA weigh down its ascension, making the pitch Bradford’s foundation, but requiring help from his secondaries to soar. If his changeup took a step forward to silence right-handers, the four-seamer can do the work almost all on its own against lefties (no, not the slider. Definitely not the slider). That’s an easier path toward success than I expected, but there’s also a solid chance his sub 30% ICR on four-seamers vs. LHB goes north in the year ahead.
144. Dean Kremer (BAL, RHP)
Kremer is a slinger from the right side. It makes his four-seamer earn a fair number of whiffs when elevated with two strikes (near 14% SwStr last year!), though getting there and executing it properly is the issue. His sinker isn’t used to jam batters but to live down-and-low while his money maker is a cutter that he hopes to sneak around the zone. When that cutter is nailing the zone, it opens up the changeup late with the aforementioned high heater, and when he’s lucky, the big breaker can be a factor as well.
If this approach seems ehhhhh to you, it’s because it is. There are times when it all clicks and the solid Orioles team backs him up, though it can be frustrating to watch him open his shoulder too soon, resulting in missed locations on nearly every other pitch. The cutter is the closest he has to a “back-pocket” offering when he’s backed into a corner, but it’s not the elite weapon others have to preserve ratios and save the day. He’s a decent two-step option against poor teams when he starts as the Orioles will let him go 90+ pitches, and he offers some whiffability, though the volatility is destined to frustrate many.
145. Dane Dunning (TEX, RHP)
I understand how he works as a Toby. Dunning’s sinker was shockingly good against right-handers (sub 30% ICR!) despite a stupid low O-Swing%. The slider was an effective pitch, even if it was hung more often than usual for more damage than we should expect in 2024. The grounders overall went down, but the Texas defense did him favors, keeping a decent BABIP that gave him a chance to go 5+ as a starter on any given night, even soaring to seven frames and 12 strikeouts when the stars aligned.
He made a smart change against left-handers, too. Instead of continuing to feature sinkers and sliders that were incessantly pummeled, Dunning leaned more on inside cutters and away changeups. They aren’t elite offerings, but he upped their usage to over 50% thrown and performed significantly better than the former pairing.
What I see is an arm with just one solid whiff pitch – a slider to right-handers – and a trio of offerings to hopefully earn outs along the way. That makes for a Toby at best, with a lower floor than others as that sinker is unlikely to maintain its success for another season if it continues its same locations. Dunning is your quintessential streaming option.
146. Kyle Hendricks (CHC, RHP)
Y’all are gonna laugh. Hendricks is Justin Steele with fewer whiffs and strikeouts. That’s ridiculous. Well…a bit. Yes. They are both fastball + major secondary with their heaters getting destroyed by left-handers, but holding court easily against right-handers. Hendricks plays the game of tempting fate with his four-seamer against left-handers, boasting a massive 32% called strike rate on the pitch, but when batters were able to connect, it’s 55% ICR land.
However, the changeup is the great nullifier and its absurdly low 23% ICR with 45% usage keeps his head afloat. I actually wonder if he can throw it more against left-handers given how much struggle batters have with it.
The Cubs defense will still help Hendricks and while the strikeout rate won’t jump to 20%+ in all likelihood, there is a streamer here if he’s facing a lineup devoid of powerful lefties. I wonder if there’s a small shift of fastball approach that can help The Professor as well – his command is excellent…right? Then why not up-and-in fastballs with surprise down-and-away heaters to set up the changeup? That’s a legitimate question and I’m leaning towards believing that Hendricks doesn’t have this skill. After all, it’s the #1 skill in the game and very few showcase it. Don’t bank on it.
147. Ranger Suárez (PHI, LHP)
Suárez is pretty simple. LHBs get shoved sinker after sinker inside, with cutters and curves as the rare mix-up and it works. No notes, Suárez’s command is above average and things are cool there, even if strikeouts don’t pile up and it relies on weak contact in play.
Each start comes with a struggle against RHBs, though. He can get into grooves where he can spot his changeup, curve, and cutter around the zone, but most importantly, nail his four-seamer up-and-in. However, this past year, it was a bit tougher to land the pitch, including a greater emphasis down and away, which didn’t work in his favor. The pitch’s lack of effectiveness could also have been a product of his curve’s dramatic decline in strike rate, while his changeup still can’t find a strike rate above 55%. At least he has his cutter to steal effective strikes constantly, keeping him afloat.
It makes Suárez a streaming option as you can’t trust the walk rate to improve from 9%, while the hit rate will still be high as long as he has trouble deconstructing right-handers. We’ve seen runs where Suárez can find everything and become a reliable Win producer, though his ceiling comes in pockets and shouldn’t be trusted out of the gate. There just isn’t anything exciting in the arsenal to pull you in early.
148. Taijuan Walker (PHI, RHP)
Walker was a different pitcher in 2023 and despite the changes, he’s still in a place of concern. His splitter has carried him plenty in the past but struggled massively this year, with significant dips in both strike and SwStr rate. His fastballs are still highly suspect, with less O-Swing to RHBs on his sinker and LHBs absolutely crushing the sinkers they saw for a laughable 70% ICR. Pulling back on the four-seamer for more sinkers against RHBs was a wise choice, though a minor move in the long run.
A transition from a mid-80s slider to an upper-80s cutter added a few more strikes, but did little to push the needle as Walker lacks a major whiff pitch to lean on. I wish I could point to a specific offering and say, “That pitch gets me excited,” and instead, I’m left trying to justify a stream in hopes his splitter and sinker do enough work to let him go six frames and steal a Win.
If the splitter is cooking, Walker could be a decent volume guy in 15-teamers, especially after he flexed fifteen Wins in 2023. His general ability to keep home runs to a minimum gives him a chance on any given night, though those in 12-teamers should be striving for more in their fantasy lives.
149. Bryce Elder (ATL, RHP)
I’ll make this quick. Elder was a Vargas Rule for the first half of 2023 as he was able to locate his sinker and slider on opposite sides of the plate effectively. Oh, so he has an extreme arm-side breaking sinker? You’d think so, wouldn’t you? It’s more average than you’d think and his slider has almost reverse-cut action at times. It’s awfully strange, but its drop is fantastic and was a major part of his success early in the season.
However, the Rule is rarely an exception, with Elder becoming a streamer against the weak squads (see: Pirates in the GIF above) and vacationing on the waiver wire in between. It’s possible he gets ousted early in the year if at least one of the Fringe arms massively impresses in the spring (or a signing appears) and fantasy managers expecting to get solid volume may want to reconsider. That 8.2 hit-per-nine from last season is sure to increase, possibly with his walks, turning him into a 1.40+ WHIP arm in a flash, while the strikeouts are likely to flirt with 20%. We’ll always have that 12-win season…
150. Mike Clevinger (FA, RHP)
I can understand why teams haven’t signed Clevinger yet and I’m personally electing to not roster him on any of my teams. Clevinger has a solid changeup and slider, with his four-seamer failing to take down LHB, but was highly successful at limiting damage against RHB, despite boasting just a 7% SwStr on the pitch. There’s a cutter in the mix that acts more like a slider than a proper cutter (and his slider more like a curveball…), explaining why it’s more of a RHB weapon than for jamming LHB. In the end, I don’t see him taking major strides improving on his 20% strikeout rate as the four-seamer is destined to degrade.
151. Keaton Winn (SFG, RHP)
At the time of this writing, the Giants don’t have a #5 starter, with Winn looking like the prime option. However, I can’t believe that San Francisco doesn’t sign one of the volume arms on the market, with Hicks being the clear candidate ahead of Winn. In his small 42-frame sample last year, Winn’s splitter was nasty. Excellent strike rates, low ICR marks, and plenty of whiffs that you want from a splitter, doing its best to infatuate you for your conviction for a full season. Be better than that. It was a small sample and with Winn using the pitch over 50% of the time, it opens the door for disaster when the splitter – the most inconsistent pitch in baseball – isn’t there because let me tell you, the backup options are rough. It’s mostly two fastballs that carry all the poor variables to justify their 50%+ ICR rates, even with 96 mph velocity. Sadly, it means that Winn can’t be trusted as a breakout candidate as it’s just a splitter without as good of a fastball as Gausman’s (and even that one has issues!), and I imagine the Giants don’t want to rely too heavily on Winn.
152. Ross Stripling (OAK, RHP)
I’d be cautious chasing Stripling in 2024. There have been moments when Stripling excels in the part, rooted in finding his changeup and secondary rhythm, and it’s nigh impossible to know when he’ll find himself there once again, especially in his 34-year-old season.
Stripling relies on his slider (think cutter) for strikes inside the zone, landing away to both sides of the plate and resulting in a higher ICR than you’d want. Don’t let his four-seamer’s above-average SwStr rate get you swooning – the pitch gets blasted by both lefties and righties, as his over-the-top delivery creates a poor VAA that constantly helps the barrel find the pitch, even with its decent iVB and solid locations against LHBs. His sinker can do work against RHBs inside, but its lackluster movement and rare usage make it too small of an impact to push the needle.
A devastating changeup shines far brighter than the rest of Stripling’s arsenal. LHBs suffer from its vicious drop paired with plenty of deception coming from the same arm slot as his heaters, resulting in a 21% SwStr rate (and 40%+ ICR last year, but expect that to fall down in 2024). The pitch doesn’t have quite the same success against RHBs, though if he increases its usage toward 25-30% of the time, Stripling may be able to find a feel to prevent the pitch from frequently landing in the heart of the zone.
With the move to Oakland, expect Stripling to get a long leash to go six frames as he lives the dream he had for himself in San Francisco. I’m not certain that an extra inning or two will grant him a higher Win chance than he had previously, but at least there’s more upside to chase here, especially for those in Quality Start leagues. I’ll be monitoring Stripling for the times during the year when his slider and changeup are both cooking for a surprise stream here and there.
153. Alex Wood (OAK, LHP)
You know, the Athletics had a really fun situation heading into 2024 and they suddenly ruined it all overnight when they added Wood and Stripling to the crew. NICK! BE HAPPY FOR ALEX! I am! Don’t worry, it’s nice that he gets a chance to actually start and showcase what he can do on the bump for as long as he’s able to as the Athletics front office figures out where the team is sleeping that night instead of watching the game. And during that time, Wood is going to try to work upstairs with his strong Adj. VAA, but instead elect to sit away to LHB and get pummeled. Yes, I dislike it and wish he’d just use the pitch’s stellar horizontal run to eat up LHB alive. But it sets up the changeup! Nah, that think will still eat down-and-gloveside against LHB even if the sinker isn’t always sitting away. Sure, chuck a heater away every so often to keep em honest, but you have have your cake and eat it too.
And oddly enough, that sinker destroys RHB currently as it lands gloveside plenty as a front-hip pitch that’s tough to square up with the low arm-action – it’s the rare case where I’m happy the sinker holds 2nd percentile loLoc% as he’s leaning more into the flat arm angle. It’s why the sinker has a 29% groundball rate, good for 4th percentile among SP.
The final piece is Wood’s slider, boasting solid strike rates to both LHB and RHB, though the pitch can find the heart of the zone a bit too frequently, allowing more damage than ideal.
All in all, Wood is a super AL-Only sleeper in Oakland. Sure, the Wins aren’t going to be massive, but the skills here are better than you’d expect for a guy coming off a 4.33 ERA and 1.43 WHIP season, especially with the massive decline in strikeout rate to just 17%. I’d imagine Wood in a much clearer role and lack of pressure, he can squeeze more out of his arsenal and improve the walk rate as he earns more than a 54% strike rate with his changeup to RHB. That’s it? Just fix the changeup to RHB? Yuuuup. That easy.
154. Kyle Gibson (BAL, RHP)
I’m about to type the most mundane sentence you’ll read in these blurbs. Gibson’s foundation is a decent sinker. Meh. He doesn’t jam batters with them often but instead elects to sit glove-side, with a decent history of keeping it off barrels. RHBs got a new sweeper that did wonders down-and-away, but sweepers are less effective than gyro sliders to opposite-handed batters, forcing Gibson to adapt a cutter to go along with his changeup, which doesn’t quite work. Meanwhile, Gibson struggles to keep his changeup arm-side, creating more damage than ideal on the slowball to both LHB and RHB, which makes his already precarious ability emit a high-pitched crack, bearing its teeth as if you needed a larger deterrent to avoid Gibson in your drafts.
When facing a RHB heavy lineup, Gibson could return at least a strikeout per inning and find himself through six frames as the Cards are sure to let him soak up as many frames as possible. For the standard fantasy leagues, that makes Gibson a streamer at best and not an arm to circle in any draft.
155. Hyun Jin Ryu (FA, LHP)
We didn’t see a whole lot of Ryu in 2023, but what we did see was an introduction of sinkers to RHB, a move away from changeups to cutters against LHB, and it kind worked. The changeup isn’t generating the same O-Swing to RHB, the four-seamer is still roooough against RHB (why are you going upstairs with it despite horrific iVB and a steep delivery?), and the cutter + curve seems to be the right call against LHB. I see Ryu as a sneaky play for 2024 as there are some teams out there who are still searching for innings and Ryu should be able to be his traditional Tobyself, especially if that changeup returns to form in a full season. That’s the hope, though, and while we wait and see for Ryu to sign, you don’t need to go chasing this. After all, we don’t draft Tobypitchers now, do we? Who do you expect to sign him? As of 2/6/24, I’d say one of the Rangers, Giants, or Yankees seem like the best fits. I’d be cool with all of them for Ryu, still not close to the Top 100, though.
156. Adrian Houser (NYM, RHP)
Houser is a nibbler and I cannot express how frustrating he is to watch from both dugouts. Hitters get annoyed trying to deal with pitches around the edges that they overextend at times. Meanwhile, Brewers fans are in a constant state of anxiety as Houser rarely gives in and grooves heaters in hitter counts. It makes for a pitcher who can cruise through six frames when he’s spotting the edges with his sinker and supporting it with sliders that land in and under the zone with ease, or he can be done in four innings after batters jump on all heaters they see.
He’s the perfect example of a desperate streamer if you’re chasing a Quality Start and don’t care much for the WHIP or strikeouts – he’s destined to have an elevated WHIP given a walk rate that will never be elite + a prosperity for the ball in play. In other words, don’t draft Houser.
157. Steven Matz (STL, LHP)
I don’t buy it. Womp womp. The sinker isn’t an exceptional offering, though it does limit damage better than I expected against LHBs for a pitch that lives away and over the plate constantly. His curve finds too much of the zone and can’t be relied upon as a big whiff pitch, while the changeup, the slowball that should debilitate RHBs, can’t find a home down-and-away to tempt whiffs, either.
His 22% strikeout rate is a product of called strikes against left-handers (king of the backward K!), and I just can’t get behind that. He hasn’t allowed a hits-per-nine under nine since 2018, forcing his WHIP to float above 1.25 each season and it’s hard to put faith in that mark improving in the season ahead, especially with his long history of combating injuries. So he’s a streamer. Nailed it.
158. Andrew Heaney (TEX, LHP)
Heaney has been the model of “slinging southpaw with questionable command” for a long while and looking at his performance against left-handers in 2022 and 2023 displays just that. His slider’s 30% SwStr was cut in half while he lost 15 points in strike rate between the two of them. There’s your problem. Heaney’s slider returned just a 55% strike rate against left-handed batters last year, missing far more bats despite not many changes to its approach – it was his execution in two-strike counts as it went from a 41% putaway rate to just 16%. Small samples will get you, though Heaney should increase that mark a bit from 2023 in the next year.
He’s surprisingly better against left-handers. The four-seamer carries a horrific 4% SwStr to left-handers, but that number climbs to 13% against right-handers, using his elite VAA and consistent spots up in the zone to fool batters, even with poor iVB. Heaney’s changeup carries exceptional horizontal movement as well and consistently stays arm-side, giving him a weapon he refuses to use against left-handers. This isn’t to say Heaney is stellar against right-handers, but at least there’s a showcase of a pitcher who could go five sturdy frames there.
I wouldn’t risk this given Heaney’s massive decline in whiffs on his slider, paired with a fastball that fails to bully batters and a changeup that carried just a 22% CSW against right-handers (solid ICR, though). The Rangers may need to push Heaney toward 25+ starts for another season (if he’s healthy enough to do so), but that doesn’t mean you have to join them.
159. Patrick Sandoval (LAA, LHP)
Pop Quiz: When was the last time The Irish Panda had a WHIP under 1.20? He never did. NOTHING GETS PAST YOU. He had a 1.21 in 2021 and has been 1.34 or higher in every other season. That doesn’t seem good. It sure isn’t. The walk rates are still high as he saves his changeup for two-strike counts over 40% of the time (that’s high), and the pitch has lost an inch of drop, while his four-seamer and sinker fail to hit the 65% strike clip. The slider lost a few inches of drop this past year as well, lowering its CSW to 27%, its first time under 31% in his career. The full arsenal has declined across the board and we’re at a point where it’s unwise to bank on redemption.
That said, I wonder if there’s an approaching shift that could work for Sandoval – the Neckbeard approach. Sandoval’s sinker has been a fantastic source of weak contact over the years (sub 30% ICR rates!), while along with his four-seamer, it gets more rise than your standard sinker. I can see him playing the called-strike game of Zac Gallen inside the zone, then toying like Dallas Keuchel underneath it with sliders and changeups as well. It may not work in the slightest, though at this point, Sandoval’s 4.11 ERA feels ready to implode with his 1.51 WHIP from last season. Might as well try something new, right?
160. Miles Mikolas (STL, RHP)
Oh Mikolas. When your goal is to pump sinkers and four-seamers with 40%+ ICR rates into the zone incessantly, you can’t expect to have good ratios, now can you? But there’s a curveball! And a slider! That hook is used more against left-handers, and…yup, over 40% ICR, this time with a strike rate just under 60%, and that’s for both sides of the plate. Fine, his slider! Hey, now that’s actually a decent offering, and yet it returns a 10% SwStr rate, and the 16% strikeout rate for all of 2023 then makes a whole lot of sense.
But wait! He struck out ten in his final game! I watched all of that game and in short, the Reds were a terrible offense. Mikolas’ glistening 2022 numbers were a product of a St. Louis defense that did him all the favors, and when the luck wavered at all, his hits-per-nine jumped from 7.6 to 10.1. That’s a lot of hits! And just like Z100, the hits won’t stop coming. You really should pass on Mikolas.
161. Randy Vásquez (SDP, RHP)
It’s incredibly milquetoast. Vásquez leans on four-seamers and sinkers that fail to excite, while his secondaries are unpolished. If he’s able to do more with the slider, jam batters with cutters, and locate his sinker better to RHBs, I can squint to see a 5+ inning arm consistently, especially if that curve can be harnessed as a proper weapon, though he has to take steps forward across the board before we trust him. If I were a betting man, I’d say Vásquez gets the #5 spot out of camp, which may mean he gets some attention with the Padres defense behind him. I wouldn’t trust it until at least one secondary pops off.
162.Michael Lorenzen (FA, RHP)
Remember when Lorezen had a 2.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP during a 14 start stretch in the middle of 2023? That was awesome. Congrats to the Tigers for Lorenzen’s great fortune as they were able to flip him at the deadline to the Phils, where he promptly imploded and was sent to the pen before too long.
Lorenzen’s approach is pretty straightforward. His four-seamer finds the zone with reckless abandon against both RHB and LHB (which somehow worked against RHB but was promptly blasted by LHB), a great sinker that jams RHB frequently, a decent slider to find strikes against both RHB and LHB (and doesn’t fare too well), and a changeup that performs well against LHB.
That doesn’t feel like an electric arsenal. Why were you expecting one from Lorezen? It’s a Toby at best, as you hope he faces RHB, who doesn’t destroy his heater and cross your fingers as the slider plops into the zone. I’m sure a team will find a use for Lorenzen and he’ll become a streaming option here and there but hot dang, this ain’t it. That fourteen start stretch was a clear outlier, adding some lovely makeup to an otherwise rigid season.
163. Luis Medina (OAK, RHP)
Medina is very arguably expected to start the season in the rotation, though I see his spot in a more fragile state than Boyle’s, especially with the plethora of arms below. His best skill is a new slider that at times was lights out last season, before fading like leaves in the fall. Stop being a terrible writer, Nick. Sorry. There’s a chance the slider has its day once again, but at best it becomes a Huascar Rule and that isn’t a rule you want to follow. The four-seamer isn’t terrible, but it isn’t exceptional either despite its 96 mph velocity, and the sinker, curve, and change leave very little to grasp.
164. Josiah Gray (WAS, RHP)
I remember being intrigued by Josiah back in 2021 and hoping he would hone his craft inside the Washington rotation now that he had a consistent, low-pressure role. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case. His four-seamer’s best asset is its flat VAA, rooted in a massive knee dip on release that gives the pitch as much help as possible to thrive upstairs, but its low extension, velocity, and average rise force him to be perfect with the pitch in order to get results. Spoiler alert: He doesn’t. In fact, the Nationals as a crew seem hesitant to lean into upstairs fastballs almost as if it’s a directive outside of the pitchers’ hands, which is as large of a repellent you can find for me taking interest in their starters.
The rest of the repertoire features a pair of breakers that sat above a 20% SwStr in previous years and have fallen to 15%+ marks recently as Gray can’t find a way to integrate them into his arsenal properly. A new cutter was introduced in 2023 to help gain strikes his fastballs struggled to steal without punishment, though its command is shaky and can’t be trusted for another year.
That makes for a starter who will get innings and some bright spots here and there but has far too much to fix and tweak to become a reliable arm in 12-teamers, let alone 15-teamers, especially on the low-powered Nationals offense.
165. Michael Kopech (CHW, RHP)
It’s disheartening to watch the downfall of Kopech. His four-seamer was a 97/98 mph pitch out of the pen in 2021 with solid extension and VAA, paired with 17+ inches of iVB, and then in 2022 he lost three ticks of velocity in a tumultuous year (93 mph some starts and then 97 mph the next), but pushed that iVB close to 18 inches. He’s so close!
And yet so far. 2023 was painful as the fastball became a 16.2 iVB pitch, with that same 95 mph velocity. Meanwhile, the slider hadn’t made the gains in command we wanted to see, nor had his curve or changeup, resulting in a pitch with highly questionable command, degrading stuff, and only flashes of the plus ability we saw as a reliever in 2021.
The journey for Kopech to become a reliable starter is simple: get movement and velocity back on his fastball, while finding the command across all his pitches to execute the BSB. Oh, and find a solution for left-handers, which may be as simple as regaining that heater to jam batters up-and-in. That doesn’t sound simple. Well, it is in concept, just not in execution. It’s a desperate dart throw and if Kopech has early success, make sure he’s ticking off these boxes before you believe in it.
166. Tristan Beck (SFG, RHP)
Beck has a solid slider that he leans on 2/3 of the time against RHBs (well, more like a cutter and sweeper that we’ve coalesced into one pitch), allowing his four-seamer to get called strikes and induce a shockingly low sub 30% ICR. It’s a bit odd and something I expect to regress in 2024, but I have to wonder if there’s some truth to those low batted ball marks from Beck on the heater. I also wonder if he’s able to add a third pitch against LHBs that allows him to keep his heater’s usage down. With these possibilities, there may be a world where we see him go more than five innings as a starter if he’s forced into the position throughout the year. In the meantime, his ceiling isn’t high enough to circle with a 19% strikeout last year that shouldn’t inflate overnight.
167. Martín Pérez (PIT, LHP)
I’m grouping together Pérez and Gonzales in the ranks because they are the most Ugh, the Pirates signings you’ll find as they are both Toby arms at best from the left side, where they’ll be quick to embrace the classic “end at-bats in three pitches or fewer” mentality of Clint Hurdle. We saw Pérez have a glorious 2022 with changeups, cutters, and sinkers beautifully spotted around the zone. However, it collapsed in 2023 and the reason is pretty easy to spot: His cutter was far worse and its strike rate went from 68% to 58%. Tada! There’s your answer.
Sure, there was good fortune such as a stupid low 0.50 HR/9 in 2022 as well, but the hit rate cratered as well before climbing back to normalcy in 2023 and there’s little reason to expect otherwise in Pittsburgh.
Pérez at least has opportunity and for those in Quality Start leagues, he’ll have all the innings he wants, opening the door for 15+ on the year as long as he’s healthy. Don’t expect the strikeouts to be there, nor ratios that propel your team forward, but if it’s volume you need, Pérez will have it with a touch better performance than the others at the bottom of the barrel.
168. Marco Gonzalez (PIT, LHP)
I slotted Marco underneath Martín as I can see Pérez improve with his cutter and benefit from a proper role for a full year, showcasing a believable way to improve in the new team context. As for Marco, he had a rough 2023, which was hampered by a compressed nerve and forced him to get season-ending surgery. Now without the inhibitions in his wrist, it’s possible he takes a leap forward with his command to replicate his 2020 or 2021 seasons.
Because his four-seamer should never be touched (and yet he still does over 35% of the time…), he’ll need to get his changeup, curve, and cutter back on track to their former selves. It’s a tall order and not one we should bank on as the cutter’s usage against RHB has plummeted against RHB and the change is good but far from elite. At least the curve is still solid against LHB, even if it’s not the breaker it needs to be against RHB.
It’s not out of the question, but it’s a little more “black-box” of a regression than with Pérez in my view. Throw in the fact that Marco has had a strikeout rate above 19% just once in his last five seasons (the 11 starts of 2020) and it’s just so dang boring to draft. You can find replacements for a guy like this in-season, trust me. Yes, even in 15-teamers.
Tier 17 – One Shot, One Opportunity
These are highly unlikely to start out of camp, but are arms to heavily consider when they get their shot. Like Jobe is SO GOOD but who knows when.
169. Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP)
Jackson Jobe's slider is literally too nasty for his catchers to handle pic.twitter.com/yG06dVmqBY
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) April 29, 2022
He’s stupid filthy and there’s a decent chance Jobe is the star prospect arm of 2024 when he gets the call. At the moment, he seems to be the #7 arm of consideration (outside of Faedo or a bullpen game, of course) and I’d heavily consider a stash come the end of April, especially if the Tigers flirt with the idea of a six-man rotation to limit the innings of their young & recovering arms. Low walk rate, massive strikeout potential with a stupid good slider and a 95/96 mph heater upstairs, a cutter for strikes, and a debilitating changeup. IT’S ALL HERE.
170. Jared Jones (PIT, RHP)
Jared Jones (@Pirates' No. 3 prospect) tossed a 💎 for the @indyindians:
6 IP
1 H
0 R
1 BB
8 K pic.twitter.com/RG9fWJUoyv— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 16, 2023
He’s an exciting one. He sits 95/96 on his four-seamer and when he can consistently get it upstairs, it misses a ton of bats. He pairs it with a whiff-heavy slider that doesn’t nail the down-and-gloveside approach for sliders often enough, but he executes it just enough to make it a proper 1-2 punch. The curve is a show-me offering he hopes to get in the zone and the changeup is far from ready, but once he hits the majors, Jones could spin some dominant games with fastballs and sliders. I worry a bit about the consistency that outlines a Cherry Bomb upon promotion, but he’s sure to win the adoration of managers early with at least one early start earning a strikeout per inning.
171. Royber Salinas (OAK, RHP)
Royber Salinas 💪
The No. 21 @Braves prospect notched his first 8 outs via K and finished with 10 punchouts over 4.1 IP for @TheRomeBraves. pic.twitter.com/ahw9Xl3cJZ
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 14, 2022
Salinas should be on your radar. He throws upper 90s with a trio of secondaries that could each take over a game (especially that slider!). I wonder how far back on the depth chart he is with so many arms available for the Athletics, but if he’s making a major splash in Triple-A early in the season, Salinas could demand a rotation spot before the start of summer.
172. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, RHP)
Jacob Misiorowski, Electric Stuff. ⚡️⚡️ pic.twitter.com/kaVLcLPL69
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 9, 2023
His stuff is ridiculous. He sits upper 90s and hit 101 in the MLB Futures Game (see below) with a hammer of a slider in the mid-to-upper 80s + a low-90s cutter. He’ll miss all the bats with his extension and velocity, though control will be the issue (not command, he just needs to throw strikes). He’s the kind of pitcher you pick up instantly when he gets the call and give it a whirl. If he’s found some way to limit free passes, Misiorowski will dominate. There is a risk that he turns into a bullpen arm, but we also thought that with Strider…This feels like the future of the Brewers.
173. Hurston Waldrep (ATL, RHP)
Hurston Waldrep has been dominant since the draft.
15 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 25 K (43.1% K)#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/ugzuz5T0aV
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) August 27, 2023
There’s a lot of hype around Waldrep, who has a big over-the-top fastball and pairs it with a legit splitter that tunnels so well as it falls under the zone. I’m generally against pitchers with splitters as their #2 offering (it’s the most volatile pitch), though Waldrep’s high release makes for a more consistent splitter that comes out of the hand properly (getting on top of the ball with a straighter wrist). That said, he walked three batters in three of his final four games of 2023, and command may be a battle throughout his career. Once he gets the call to the majors, Waldrep should be rostered, even if those walks and inefficiency could make for many growing pains.
174. Chase Hampton (NYY, RHP)
Drafted in 2022 and shut down to preserve his arm, Hampton tossed 20 starts and nearly 110 frames across A+ and AA ball where he maintained strong whiff rates and sub 10% walk rates with a solid 93/94 mph heater that looked to have success upstairs, leaning mostly on a pair of breakers that gave batters fits. There’s a 90 mph cutter in there as well and I’m curious how he’ll perform when he likely makes the jump to Triple-A this year. The Yankees could be turning to Hampton early with their injury-prone arms and keep a close eye on Hampton. There’s legitimate strikeout potential in his secondaries and if the four-seamer isn’t detrimental once we see his Statcast data, then you may have a sneaky prospect grab in-season.
175. Chayce McDermott (BAL, RHP)
Chayce McDermott started off the 2023 season right.
The No. 18 @Orioles prospect fanned six across four hitless innings, earning an Opening Day save for the @BowieBaysox: pic.twitter.com/UWuQNeO7c2
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) April 7, 2023
I kinda dig Chayce a lot. His four-seamer comes in around 94 mph, but its VAA, high locations, and 17 inches of iVB showcase why it sings upstairs when he can keep it there. He pairs it with a curve and slider he trusts, with a changeup that shows up here and there. It’s a mix that is rooted in a high heater and I can absolutely get behind that. His high walk rates are concerning, though it seemed as though he settled down a bit as the season continued. Expect Chayce to make a play for a rotation spot early in the season, especially if he has a great camp.
176. Will Warren (NYY, RHP)
As the #Yankees look for pivots on the pitching market, they have an excellent option internally in Will Warren that could boost their pitching staff. Posted an ERA+ above 130 at Triple-A this past season and has NASTY stuff 👀 pic.twitter.com/XgQ1IUabMd
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) December 22, 2023
Warren’s slider is a vicious offering with a ton of sweep, and when merged with a heavy sinker at 95/96 mph, Warren is a menace to RHBs trying to identify which direction each pitch is going. Fortunately, there’s a cutter in the mix as well to help take down LHBs, though he may need to lean more on his four-seamer to prevent hits off the sinker and breaker. He looks ready to go as the first call for the Yankees given his roughly 100 frames in Triple-A last season, and an arrival before May 1st isn’t out of the question as you could consider him the current #6 SP for the squad. He’s worth a spec add when it does happen, though the walk rate did rise above 10% last season and may be a hindrance in 2024, preventing six frames or even five in his first few outings.
177. Cade Povich (BAL, LHP)
Cade Povich tonight:
6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K
Nasty pic.twitter.com/ghS6IBtyU3
— The Verge- An Orioles MiLB Podcast (@TheVergePod) September 1, 2022
Cade is the other big name with the Orioles, though from my limited look into the two, I prefer McDermott over Povich, even if Cade comes from the left side. Both have nearly 17 iVB on the heater, but Chayce is a bit more consistent in keeping his heater upstairs (with better VAA, more velocity, and a little more extension), while I also trust the slider and curve a bit more. That said, Cade’s curve grades highly in Stuff+ while the cutter/slider has been a formidable weapon for him as well. It comes down to his ability to establish the heater effectively to set up his weapons and he could make an impact when he arrives. If only his heater was better than 92 mph…
178. Tink Hence (STL, RHP)
Tink Hence's debut for the @Sgf_Cardinals was a gem 💎
The second-ranked @Cardinals prospect fanned five in five strong innings, lowering his season ERA to 1.80: pic.twitter.com/FBDmnRpjQ0
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 5, 2023
He was able to hit upper 90s, but he’s young at just 21 years old and he pitched in Double-A in 2023, which means it’s unclear how much growth we’ll see between now and the depths of summer heat. If his heater can dominate through a full workload of six frames (he had many games around four or five innings last year), there’s a lovely foundation for him to take steps forward with a big high-70s hook and a changeup/slider combo hoping to earn consistent strikes.
179. River Ryan (LAD, RHP)
River Ryan, my No. 9 #Dodgers prospect, was excellent for Double-A Tulsa:
5.0 IP
1 H
0 R
2 BB
5 K
10 whiffs
66 P / 42 SRyan hit 99 mph on his fastball tonight and has a 3.33 ERA in 24 games this season pic.twitter.com/RsLlTb9ZoM
— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) September 8, 2023
I absolutely dig River. Big 96/97 mph heater, above-average extension, and great VAA make his heater play incredibly well, even if it doesn’t have the best iVB. His curve is a legit breaker, the 90/91 cutter is a solid strike pitch, and reports are that his athleticism speaks to the development of his changeup as well. He doesn’t have the deterrent we normally see from electric prospect arms of an extended history of terrible walk rates, and this could be the season he truly comes into his own after just two games at Triple-A in 2023. The number of options for the Dodgers make it hard to see when Ryan will get his chance, but you should pay attention when he does.
180. Kyle Hurt (LAD, RHP)
Dodgers hot take 2024. Remember a hot take is not necessarily a prediction, but rather a projection & going out on a limb a little bit.
Kyle Hurt starts in the pen & by the end of the year is the closer enabling Evan Phillips to be the high leverage guy pic.twitter.com/YrTqzou2bU
— Ray Lokar🗣️📋⚾🏀🥎🧢 (@CoachLok) February 2, 2024
He’s incredibly exciting after lowering his walk rates dramatically in 2023, though the ~10/11% clip is still a touch elevated. Hurt has a legit changeup with 95+ mph velocity that retired all six Padres batters in his sole game in the bigs, saving a newly developed gyro slider that could become a weapon in 2024. I’m curious if the four-seamer has major whiffability in the majors given its elite VAA that comes with both average extension and iVB, though both could improve with more time and development while the arm angle stays the same. The biggest question is that slider – if it’s a legit breaker, it completes Hurt’s arsenal as a second weapon to pair with the plus changeup that keeps RHB at bay and serves as a two-strike offering under LHB bats. Circle him if the Dodgers find themselves searching for another starter in the rotation – Hurt has a high chance above the others below.
181. David Festa (MIN, RHP)
David Festa showed why he’s my #6 prospect last night 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/uAGKO0A9FY
— Twins Central (@TwinsCentral1) August 2, 2023
You’re going to hear more about Festa early in the season and I’m undecided if I’m stoked for him or if he’s a small step back from legit hype. With the lack of starting depth inside the Twins roster, Festa has a quick path to the majors, arguably acting as their #7 SP at the time of writing (I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins signed a depth arm like Lorenzen, Davies, or Ryu for the first few months). Festa’s 94 mph heater comes with great iVB and solid extension, but the pitch’s middling VAA makes me wonder if it’s enough to carry him through starts. His best pitch is a changeup that is sure to work in the bigs, but is his heater and slider good enough to let the pitch soar? I’m not sure they provide enough of a spark. He’ll be worth the spec add when the time arrives and we’ll take it from there.
182. Christian Scott (NYM, RHP)
Christian Scott K's the 1st 2 batters of the game and Jett Williams fields the ground ball at SS and the @RumblePoniesBB are underway. #Mets #LGM #MetsTwitter @ernestdove @MiLBMetsMadness @bkfan09 @WexlerRules @ImAriBeRKO @bronxfanatic @draftniks pic.twitter.com/QK0vr1ROCd
— Mets News and Links (@JohnFromAlbany) September 13, 2023
Sooooo Scott tossed 62 frames in 12 starts in Double-A and carried a 29% K-BB rate with a 17% SwStr rate. He seemingly has great extension with a low arm angle that makes the ball look like a laser to the top of the zone for likely a fair number of whiffs at the big league level. In concert with a strong slider and changeup, the arsenal is there, and we’re just waiting for him to get enough volume to ensure he can locate effectively and keep his velocity up as he continues to get stretched out. I initially thought Scott was a 2025 arm given his oblique injury in early 2023, but with an invite to Spring Training ahead, the Mets could be more aggressive than I initially anticipated. Here’s one to circle for later in the year as a spec add when the call is made.
183. DJ Herz (WAS, LHP)
I’d wager we see Herz soon in 2024. He’s racked up whiffs with a 15%+ mark in both the Cubs and Nationals systems in 2023 as a slinging southpaw with a fastball, changeup, breaker mix that should remind you of Heaney, Manaea, Abbott, and many other low arm-angled lefties of the past. It does mean he carries the same concerns about control (14% walk rate) and I would be careful to trust him in his rookie season as the Shag Rug is sure to be present, making for, at best, a Cherry Bomb scenario.
This is the best video I could find on DJ Herz
184. Nick Nastrini (CHW, RHP)
Perfection from Nick Nastrini.
The No. 6 @whitesox prospect fans three as he retires all 15 batters he faces in his final @KnightsBaseball start of the year. pic.twitter.com/ThCddzROgS
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 24, 2023
There’s hype around Nastrini after being acquired in the Lynn/Kelly deal with the Dodgers in 2023 as he’s the clear favorite to jump from the minors to the rotation before the summer arrives. His four-seamer sits low-to-mid 90s with great iVB and decent VAA, while the slider and change tunnel well off the heater to get extra deception and this propelled the 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year. I wonder a little whether that deception will still play in the majors, while his walk rates have never been favorable (always above 10% with a ~11/12% rate across roughly 115 frames in the minors last year. I’ll have my eye on him, though the lower velocity and perceived reliance on deception make me a bit skeptical that he can come up and be productive out of the gate.
185. Emerson Hancock (SEA, RHP)
He was shut down in August with a Grade-1 shoulder injury (low number = good) and had no structural damage. In other words, Hancock should be the clear #6 #7 option for the Mariners in camp and would slide into the rotation should they need backup. Hancock’s fastballs have plenty of armside break, which will hopefully turn into effective grounders instead of barrels, while the slider is the clear favorite inside the zone to help earn strikes. There’s potential in his changeup if he can wield it consistently, though expecting a 25%+ strikeout rate from Hancock is unfair. He’s more of a Toby than a Holly given the heavy armside fastballs and lack of overwhelming whiff pitch.
Tier 18 – Bring Out Yer IL
More IL stashes, with most being ones to let you know they shouldn’t be starting this year. It’s sad, y’all. Also, the formatting will get a little more truncated from here on out. It’s super laborious to have the tables and video for every pitcher and we couldn’t find the time to get to everyone. My apologies.
186. Tyler Mahle (TEX, RHP)
Oh hey, another solid starter who the Rangers are hoping to throw significant innings down the stretch. Mahle is on the shelf with TJS and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, mostly paying for the second year. When Mahle does return, I’m excited to see what he can do over a full healthy season (and hopefully some of 2024). In April, we saw an improved four-seamer shape nearing 18 iVB, though there were velocity issues holding him back. He improved his slider as well, focusing more on vertical break than a sweeper shape, and also increased the drop on his splitter. Oh Driveline, thank you for what you do. He’ll have my attention when he does return to the field, especially if he’s sitting 94 mph again and actually getting that four-seamer upstairs against right-handers instead of whatever that outside approach was last year – kids, don’t throw four-seamers middle-away to same-handed batters. Thanks.
187. Jeffrey Springs (TBR, LHP)
He went under the knife in April last season, opening the door for a second-half return for managers who want an injury stash. His personal philosophies aside, Springs could have the same dominant changeup, though the command may take some starts to return. Not my favorite stash for the likely shake-off of rust + his inflated adoration given his two 2023 starts of dominance came against the Tigers and Athletics.
188. David Peterson (NYM, LHP)
Peterson is on the shelf after undoing hip surgery and won’t be stretched out and ready to return until opening day is well in the past. When he does return, I wonder what we’ll actually get from him. His elite slider of 2022 still boasted a 20%+ SwStr this past year, though it came in a little tighter and he attempted to nail the arm-side corner more often. I’m not sure if I’m a fan of the whole schtick with the excellent extension but horrible fastball shape, and I’d be saving Peterson as just a streamer.
189. Luis Garcia (HOU, RHP)
Remember him? Garcia underwent TJS in May of 2023, which likely spells a full season on the mend, but we could see some frames from him late in the season as the Astros could be desperately looking for reliable innings. His cutter and slider combo can be fantastic when it’s cooking, though, I wouldn’t expect to see it all come together in his limited time, let alone if we even see him at all.
190. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, RHP)
Lance is recovering from his mid-June flexor tendon injury that originally had a timeline of 12-13 months and it makes for a decent IL stash, but not one I’m jumping for in leagues. When he does return, will we see him able to trust the same slider or curve as we did before? Will his notoriously questionable control still be apparent, leading to short four-inning outings (the likely scenario initially at the very least) consistently? He was a Cherry Bomb before and introducing the wrinkle of recovering from injury makes it a tougher sell.
191. Alex Cobb (SFG, RHP)
He’s out until July or so with a hip injury and when he does return, he’s likely to still rough up your WHIP with a poor hit rate, and the strikeout rate will be dependent on his splitter being at its peak, an experience that comes along too infrequently for my tastes. Cobb is the perfect example of a pitcher who we ignore in drafts and wait to see how he looks post-injury before considering him for a questionable stream.
192. Brandon Woodruff (FA, RHP)
He’s very likely out for the year after getting shoulder surgery. But there’s an outside chance he will come back in September for a competitive team! Sure, why not. I love dreaming and escaping reality, too.
193. Matthew Boyd (FA, LHP)
When he underwent TJS in late June, I got my Audubon and gave a loud whistle for our Boyd Boyz. All we can do is hope he makes it back before the end of the season and does what Skubal did – showcases renewed velocity while boasting a dope changeup. Imagine that happens and he has his whiff heavy slider…
194. Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)
Hey buddy. I can’t wait to draft you for 2025. There will be a ton of pushback about how his value was in volume and coming off TJS means fewer innings and worse value, while I’ll note that a man throwing with a hurt elbow will have worse command and a healthy one speaks to Sandy being the best version of himself. H*ck, watching him this season made me frustrated at his approach at times, and there was so much more he could be doing. As for 2024, it’s a wasted late pick sadly. He should not pitch a lick next year.
195. Shane McClanahan (TBR, RHP)
You know McShane, sadly I doubt he will make an appearance in 2024 with a late August 2023 TJS operation. We’ll be thinking of you.
196. Tony Gonsolin (LAD, RHP)
Gonsolin underwent TJS in August of last year and should miss all of 2024. Let’s move on here. Sorry Tony.
197. Ian Anderson (ATL, RHP)
He underwent TJS in April of 2023 and could appear sometime in the second half. He’ll turn 26 years old next year and it’s possible he makes the necessary tweaks to his arsenal while re-learning his mechanics to make him an impact arm down the stretch.
198. Kyle Wright (KCR, RHP)
He was acquired in the Jackson Kowar deal with Atlanta and should miss all of 2024. He’s sure to be labeled as a super sleeper for 2025, though I wasn’t encouraged by his lack of skills past the curveball, nor do I love the idea of targeting a pitcher with shoulder issues.
199. Andrew Painter (PHI, RHP)
Andrew Painter's first full inning against Major League Hitters pic.twitter.com/8X23ebnlo4
— Phillies Muse (@Phillies_Muse) March 1, 2023
He underwent Tommy John in July 2023 and will miss all of 2024. Womp womp. But hey, he’s really good and should be a major add when he debuts in mid-2025 after he has a few months in the minors to work back up again, right?
200. Vince Velasquez (FA, RHP)
Velasquez could return quicker than most here after getting hybrid UCL surgery that has a shorter 11-12 month timeline vs. the 14-16 of traditional TJS. and don’t you dare forget Velasquez’s remarkable five game stretch of just 4 ER that included a monster 10 strikeout game – there was some legit life in that arm before the tear. Big thanks to an improved slider that he suddenly hurled 45% of the time and featured heavily against RHB and LHB for consistent dominance. Does he break the Huascar Rule? Well sure, he doesn’t have his heater of old. But it’s something and something is cool way you’re way down here…
201. Mason Miller (OAK, RHP)
WHAT HAVE THEY DONE. The Athletics announced they are likely to make him the closer for 2024 and I’m in shambles. It makes sense on paper as a way to limit his total workload for the season, though the regularity of relieving is its own way of putting stress on the arm that isn’t present when starting…BUT WHATEVER. If Miller actually starts again, his ceiling is tremendous with a four-seamer that has all the qualities you want at 98/99 mph (and has hit 101 multiple times) + a 94 mph cutter that will be his strike pitch + a filthy slider that will grade super high PLV marks once he lands more strikes with it. I’m so sad.
202. Germán Márquez (COL, RHP)
He’s recovering from TJS and y’all know that he has some moments where the slider and curve do enough to stave off the damage his fastballs allow, but why put yourself through that again, especially when it comes with the concern of what he’ll look like when returning from TJS? This ain’t it.
203. JT Brubaker (PIT, RHP)
Coffee Cakes got TJS in early April ’23, which could mean he returns halfway through the season. His slider is fantastic, but his sinker isn’t. There are times it earns strikes and gets the outs it dreams of, but its 40%+ ICR rates with few whiffs meant he allowed a hit per inning, if not more, inflating his WHIP even with a low walk rate. It’s the Huascar Rule – don’t trust a pitcher who has a great slider and nothing else – and even when he does return, it should come with plenty of skepticism. We need something new for him to be trusted week-to-week. There is a ceiling of six frames of production when the sinkers find gloves, but will it come with a Win…?
204. Kris Bubic (KCR, LHP)
He got TJS in late April 2023 and may be worked into the rotation by the end of the season. Bubic was looking like a more refined version of himself in the small sample we saw to kick off the year, featuring a new slider that did him wonders, elite extension on all his pitches, and actually locating both his four-seamer and changeup closer to their ideal spots (higher heaters, lower changeups). Injuries, man.
205. Antonio Senzatela (COL, RHP)
JEEZ, Senz-A, don’t sneak up on people like that. But you forgot about me! The way you haunt my dreams? NEVER! But I missed so long after my ACL tear, pitched one game, and then tore my UCL and underwent TJS in July! Oh. I thought you were still regularly pitching for the Rockies. BUT THEN HO–I hope you’re doing okay man. Just wear some tap shoes or something, please.
Tier 19 – Sure, But What’s The Point?
These are pitchers who have a tinge of potential that I’d take note if they grab a rotation spot during the year.
206. Deivi García (CHW, RHP)
Now that he’s on the White Sox, everything changes. But for real, I see the White Sox throwing everything around in that rotation this season, giving as many arms a chance to find some possible value for 2024 through flipping them at the deadline or simply holding onto them as a cornerstone of their rotation. Writing those last four words in a blurb about Deivi feels all kinds of wrong, and without any options left, the best hope for Deivi: The Starter (coming this fall) is a multi-inning role out of the pen that could stretch into starts if the situation gets dire (which it very well might). After all, he was sitting two ticks harder last year in his brief relief outings at 94/95 mph. With solid 16+ iVB. And a…1.7 Adj VAA?! WHAT?! That’s hyper-elite. Like stud elite. Duuuuuude. If that fastball can be commanded upstairs while finding a way to get strikes with his curve or slider, there’s actual upside here. Oh dang y’all. OH DANG. The path to Deivi getting that chance is just too small + the secondaries are suspect but man, I’ve developed that weird crush I get when there is this one skill that at least gives you enough room to make a reasonable attempt at finger-tweezing that quarter you dropped between the car seats. Those are the dumbest crushes.
207. Owen White (TEX, RHP)
He could be fighting for a spot in the Rangers rotation early in the year, though for fantasy purposes, you may want to ignore it. His ability dropped massively in 2023 in both Double-A and Triple-A, with his previously stellar 16% SwStr rates falling to just 11% and 8%, respectively, in 2023. His brief four frames in the majors came with little joy, and White’s cutter/fastball/slider mix came with decent command, but not enough electricity to warrant your attention. Sit this one out until there’s more to catch our eye.
208. Colin Rea (MIL, RHP)
Rea is the perfect example of a pitcher trying to squeeze everything he can out of mediocre stuff. His cutter is the hero as it finds the corners well with plenty of strikes and a 31% CSW. Its partner in crime is a sinker that is…okay. Rea has a solid skill of going front-hip against left-handers, but fails to jam right-handers with it. There are four other pitches in the mix as well, though the slider and four-seamer are the two that show up most, often in two-strike counts, and while they both can work, they aren’t reliable offerings. This is a sinker-in-play focus with cutters interspersed and that should explain the near 50% groundball rate. Don’t buy into the 1.19 WHIP as it relied on a low hit-per-nine that should regress upwards, while Rea’s 21% strikeout rate is likely to fight hard to stick around 20%, thanks to the effective slider.
209. Huascar Ynoa (ATL, RHP)
Ynoa went under the knife in 2022 and is vying for a rotation spot in 2024. He sported a filthy slider in a “breakout” 2021 campaign that was interrupted after breaking his hand punching the team bench, though he sparked the Huascar Rule – a pitcher with only a good slider can’t be trusted for a full season. Ynoa’s four-seamer has the velocity and solid iVB, but its VAA and poor extension without pristine high locations made it get walloped constantly. It’s possible we’ll see a new arm after he hits the reset button, though I wouldn’t hold my breath. At best, he’s a Cherry Bomb when the slider cooks and the fastball avoids punishment, but that’s too anxiety-riddled for me.
210. Gavin Stone (LAD, RHP)
I want to like Stone more and while his rookie year came with horrific marks, including routine 50%+ ICR, it was also a terribly small sample of 31 frames and masks his true ability. Which is far better? Well, better, but I’m not sure if it’s something for us to care about. Stone should get more opportunities than Grove as the season progresses and it’ll come down to his changeup’s dominance to carry him through games as the four-seamer doesn’t quite do enough to get me excited (even if it’s not a terrible shape – he aims it low and it gets destroyed). I kinda like his slider as a strike pitch, too, but batters seemingly jumped on everything Stone threw and we’re going to need to see some precision for him to get the most out of his arsenal. This is a clear “wait until he proves it” scenario. He may never get there.
211. Javier Assad (CHC, RHP)
We’ll likely see Assad step in for a few starts this year, though don’t expect him to go six frames with consistency, let alone once. He’s a sinker/cutter arm who can succeed if he’s nailing the edges with the cutter and jamming enough batters with sinkers. Don’t let the 3.05 ERA from 2023 fool you – he’s not the kind of pitcher you want to take a chance on.
212. Reynaldo López (ATL, RHP)
Atlanta is going to stretch out ReyLo and give him a chance to be in the rotation come March. His four-seamer woke up – 98+ mph velocity from the pen with a near 15% SwStr rate and great shape to excel at the top of the zone – and there’s even more potential given its ~50% hiLoc that could grow if he has Strider in his ear. Sadly, his secondaries aren’t nearly as dependable as you’d want. The slider returned just a 54% strike rate across nearly 30% usage, while the changeup is horrific and the curve is a work in progress. It’s possible ReyLo can turn into a Bryce Miller type, though I wonder how well the four-seamer plays without the extra velocity boost from pitching out of the pen + if he can earn enough strikes with his slider and friends.
213. Ken Waldichuk (OAK, LHP)
Funny story, I legit thought Waldichuk was out for all of 2024 after news came out that he had elbow pain after the season ended. Fortuantely, that was just scar tissue and Waldichuk should be able to pitch relatively soon, if not compete for an opening day job. Wild, I know.
Speaking of wild, that’s Waldichuk. He’s not a pitcher I love chasing due to his clear struggles to execute a gameplan with every pitch he throws. When it all works, things can be great (it’s why he has decent strikeout numbers), especially with the solid Adj. VAA he sports with elite extension from the left side. That makes his four-seamer pop at times, while he gets legit sweep on the slider and has his moments where he’s spotting changeups with ease.
If it all clicks, I believe in it. However, I don’t believe it will click. Awwww. He’s a slinging lefty, y’all, with a history of poor command and even if his arm is feeling better after the surgery, it doesn’t solve his delivery that speaks to the inconsistencies of slinging lefties of old. I’ll be watching for that command improvement and let you know if it arrives.
214. Zack Thompson (STL, LHP)
He’s super intriguing y’all. There’s another step needed before he could be something, but the arsenal does suggest there’s more to reach. He needs to focus on fastball command (not sure if that can be a huge whiff pitch without more velocity, and the shockingly low spin rates on it limit its iVB along with an average VAA) and the slider has legit whiff potential against all batters. The curve has to become more reliable as a #3 offering but the tools are there. The Cardinals will turn to him as their first option once a spot opens up, which is sure to come early with aged starters and an array of injury risk.
215. Jordan Wicks (CHC, LHP)
Wicks isn’t a pitcher I’d look to roster out of the gate. When his changeup is cooking, it’s cooking (see his MLB debut) as he does a brilliant job locating it down-and-arm-side routinely and earning chases galore. Unfortunately, its 60% strike rate requires other offerings to keep batters off the base paths, and currently, Wicks doesn’t have much to turn to. His four-seamer has all the makings of a poor offering without the same precision and his slider + curve lack consistency or electricity to turn into a Carrasco-mold of changeups and breakers paired with highly questionable fastballs.
His sinker has been effective, living just above the changeup surprisingly well, though that’s a rare skill and I don’t expect Wicks to keep the pitch in the perfect quadrant for a full season. If he can figure out how to locate cutters inside to right-handers while nailing the slider down-and-away or sinkers up-and-in to silence left-handers, then you have yourself a better Wade Miley with a great defense behind him. I need to see that growth in his arsenal before trusting him with any regularity during the season.
216. Hayden Wesneski (CHC, RHP)
The days of us dreaming of Hayden being a consistent starter are behind us. His slider is a massive breaker with tons of sweep and depth, but he doesn’t wield it properly yet, with a low 60% strike rate and sub 15% SwStr clip – a mark that will rise over time as he commands it better. His sinker can jam batters inside and had a brilliant 30% ICR rate, though it’s not enough to mask an atrocious four-seamer. This pitch held a 51% ICR as it has 11 inches of iVB – ELEVEN – and should be located down, to miss under bats, not up or middle of the zone. What about the cutter? Ummm 56.5% ICR. Oh.
217. Luis Patiño (SDP, RHP)
It’s weird to imagine Patiño improving on the Padres after the Rays weren’t able to fix him, but hey, there’s always hope! When he first arrived in the majors, Patiño’s four-seamer was brilliant with exceptional marks in all the right places – over 17 inches of iVB, great VAA, and elite velocity! – and after enduring injuries to his oblique and finger, we haven’t seen him reclaim the pitch, as he thew more sinkers in 2023, while featuring just 16.4 inches of iVB and decent VAA last season. Still, I think he’ll return to feature the straight heater this year, while there has always been room to grow with his slider. The focus on two pitches has made him look more like a reliever, but if that four-seamer can bully batters, then the depth of his arsenal can be far shallower – just that slider and one other pitch, or just be Strider and not care? Yeah, you probably need one more pitch. Monitor Patiño’s four-seamer early on and if he gets the opportunity to start again with the over-powering heater of old, sign me up.
218. Matt Waldron (SDP, RHP)
#DontTrustAKnuckleballer. But he’s more than that! Fair, he absolutely is. Waldron showcased a sinker that can earn outs against RHBs + a solid sweeper with a cutter finding the zone well and possibly earning more strikes than we should expect next year. I worry a little about him facing LHBs, but if the cutter is able to land inside often, then we’re cooking. That knuckleball is a fun thing, but in reality, it’s unreliable and should be utilized more as a surprise pitch than 25% of his arsenal given its sub 60% strike rate. It’s possible there’s a decent Toby in here if the sweeper and cutter are able to be heavily relied upon. Please stop using that four-seamer away, though.
219. Brandon Williamson (CIN, LHP)
The Reds are likely to have Williamson in Triple-A to start the year, but it’s safe to assume he’ll get significant innings inside the rotation across 2024. Williamson had a great run in the middle of the season when his heater pushed 93-95 mph instead of 91-93, with his stellar cutter earning strikes 70% of the time and changeup falling off the table to right-handers. It’s a Wade Miley approach with a touch more upside when he’s cooking, though the four-seamer’s steep VAA makes the pitch fail to earn whiffs upstairs, even with its good iVB. Don’t expect him to pile on the strikeouts unless the changeup can become a 60-65% strike pitch, but the cutter and heater should earn outs effectively enough for 15-teamers if the velocity is there.
220. Bowden Francis (TOR, RHP)
I kinda like Francis’ heater with 17 iVB, nearly 7 feet of extension, and above-average adj. VAA. It’s why it held a 38% O-Swing last year, and pairing it with a sweeper and curve makes for an interesting three-pitch mix that could actually work if he got some time as a starter. Suitman whispers in my ear. They put him in relief for all twenty games he pitched last year? WELL FINE, I’ll just ignore the four inning Win on 6/28 against the Giants then. WHATEVER. If dire circumstances arise in Toronto and Francis is given the shot, his arsenal is better than your standard “desperate MLB team SP depth option”.
221. Adrian Morejon (SDP, LHP)
I dig Morejon and I hope he’s healthy and rearing to go in 2024. There was hope for more in 2022 before he got TJS and we saw nine frames last season as a suggestion for what’s ahead. From the left side, he used to be near 97 mph, and even sitting a bit above 95 mph last year, his four-seamer featured nearly 17 inches of iVB (almost an inch more than in 2022!), with solid extension and great VAA, suggesting he can go the high-heater route. In addition, he features a gyro slider that can take out LHBs and possibly develop into the back-foot pitch against RHBs to make him a legit threat for strikeouts. I hope to see more development on his changeup to help keep off RHBs (small velo difference and mediocre movement at the moment), while the curve looks to be his most consistent strike offering among the secondaries. The unfortunate part is how the Padres will use him – I imagine he’ll be sent to the minors to finally get some innings and showcase that he can endure being a starter before getting the shot, if the Padres even let him start. So it goes.
222. Alec Marsh (KCR, RHP)
Here’s the thing. Marsh had an eleven-strikeout game against the Rays on July 15th and he was added to many lists as a potential breakout guy. Thing is, his skills just aren’t that good. The slider is a great whiff pitch – 21% SwStr rate! – but guess what, the four-seamer earned the whiffs that day. And sadly, that four-seamer just isn’t good enough. His overall 44% ICR is 5th percentile and is led by the heater, which doesn’t earn a ton of strikes to justify the damage, and I’d feel uncomfortable trusting Marsh on any given day. Maybe he can add some velocity and not rely on it low in the zone (why?! You have GOOD VAA) while leaning more on the slide piece and earning a strike rate higher than ~60%. Don’t hold your breath.
223. Alex Faedo (DET, RHP)
He’s the long reliever for the Tigers at the moment and if he’s getting regular starts, it means plenty has gone south for their rotation. Given the chance, Faedo has such a good slider (26% ICR, 36% CSW) that he can rack up strikeouts and produce for five frames, but with a mediocre heater he hopes to steal called strikes with and a changeup that carries a near 50% strike rate, he’s destined to cause more harm than production.
Tier 20 – It’s An Honest Living
They seem to have a rotation spot and you can just ignore it unless you’re in an AL/NL-Only league and even then, it’s highly suspect.
224. Tyler Anderson
2022 was a magical year for Mr. Anderson; after all, the new Matrix moving came out and had the world buzzing about Neo once again. That was 2021. FINE. Anderson was magnificent for the Dodgers, leaning into his changeup over 30% of the time and bumping all the good stuff – strike rates, SwStr, CSW, and a stupid good 26% ICR – in front of an elite defense & offense that brought him sparkling ratios and fifteen Wins.
Then he went to the Angels. Yeah. The changeup was still a good pitch, but he had to squeeze more out of it as his cutter and four-seamer each took steps back. The former dropped eight points in strike rate, while the four-seamer dropped to a 27% CSW with a 40%+ ICR and a significant dip in strike rate as well. In concert with a worse crew around him, he added two extra hits per nine, while his Wins were cut nearly 67% to just six across 25 starts. Ouch.
It’s hard to imagine a redemption to the 2022 peak without a better team around, which extends to the coaching crew to help Anderson make the right changes in-season – we can all agree the staff on the other side of town is far superior to the minds in the Angels’ clubhouse, unfortunately. There’s hope Anderson can find a groove at some point in the season and I’ll be keeping tabs to see if there’s a right time to roll the dice.
225. Chris Flexen (CHW, RHP)
Nick, Flexen is getting starts! You have to write about him! I know, it’s the Top 300 Starting Pitchers and they can’t all be Ragans, unlike this wonderful dream I had last night…ANYWAY, Flexen has a cut-four-seamer (PO1KC!) and a cutter that is the same but has a bit more drop on it. And he throws that four-seamer away to both LHBs and RHBs, which, as expected, meant it allowed all the ICR, even if he didn’t pitch a ton in Coors.
The changeup at least had good results against LHBs, but its 55% strike rate meant he had to hurl cutters at a 70% strike rate, which got pummeled at a 45% ICR and I just don’t see how we can lean in on Flexen outside of a desperate Sunday stream. Strikeouts won’t come along, this is all about starting Flexen and expressing For the Love of Koufax, give me five innings and a Win! That’s not the kind of arm you want on your teams, is it?
226. Paul Blackburn
After an All-Star 2022 season (you read that correctly), Blackburn maintained the same 4.00+ ERA (3.96 FIP?!) while the WHIP soared as his walk rate rose three ticks to an unacceptable 9% and he allowed over ten hits per nine frames. The walks can be attributed to a drop in fastball usage, though I think the move was the correct one. Blackburn has a quartet of secondary offerings that rarely harmoniously entwined across the full year, though their attributes on paper suggest better times ahead. His cutter could be a fantastic pitch inside to left-handers, his slider and curve are both immense breakers to induce uncomfortable swings and steal strikes in the zone, while his changeup held a brilliant 20% SwStr rate against left-handers.
The question here is if he can find the right mix. His four-seamer and sinker fell to near 35% usage in 2023, and I’d argue that’s still too high as both pitches were poorly located and shellacked. If he can save them for specific surprise moments à la Joe Musgrove or Aaron Civale, while, you know, not leaving them over the heart of the plate (wouldn’t that be nice?), there is a junkballer here who could keep a strikeout rate comfortably above 20% while suppressing the WHIP. It will take a revamp, though, and I’m not confident Blackburn will be doing so – it’s an aggressive ask for a pitcher to toss roughly 20% fastballs. Don’t anticipate it, though be aware if a shift reveals itself early next year.
227. Jakob Junis (MIL, RHP)
It looks like the Brewers are giving Junis a proper shot to start, an opportunity Junis has been dreaming of for ages. Thing is, all he has is the slider. There are those rare moments that the changeup is devastating n all, but let’s be real, it’s the slider. I feel like this breaks a rule. IT SURE DOES. I think there is room for Junis, especially given how the Brewers traded for him n all – Miley/Peralta have two secure spots, leaving three for Ashby, Hall, Ross, Junis, Rea, Gasser, and Bryse (why are you shuddering at that last name?) – and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Brewers took it a touch slow with Ashby and Gasser, allowing Rea, Junis, and Hall to steal the spots. Back to Junis, I don’t think he packs enough punch as he carries a really rough heater in the mix, but there’s always a chance we see something new, right?
228. Pedro Avila (SDP, RHP)
Avila’s changeup is a thing of beauty. That pitch returned 30%+ SwStr rates against RHBs (not LHBs!) the last two seasons and is the sole reason for his flirtation with a 25% strikeout rate. The problem is getting to two strikes in the first place as his four-seamer and sinker are not the offerings you want them to be. Throw in a curveball with which he struggles to earn strikes against RHBs, and you have yourself a frustrating soup. Why would I eat that? Because you didn’t sign a fifth starter, San Diego. Avila is likely to steal a rotation spot given his starts last year, and there’s some sneaky value given the elite defense behind him + PetCo’s ability to limit HRs in cold weather. If you’re in dire need of innings early in an NL-Only league, Avila isn’t the worst option, and if he gets the #4 spot, he’d face the Giants on the Sunday of opening weekend, allowing you to stream him and drop after if you like. I don’t like it for 12-teamers, but there’s a chance it works out if the changeup is cooking.
229. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT, RHP)
Ortiz’s 98 mph heater and 25% SwStr slider from 2022 were not replicated in the larger sample this past year, with both pitches taking significant steps back in whiffability, velocity, and batted ball results. His fastball split into four-seamer and sinker with the former returning a horrid 59% ICR, while the sinker was the main reason he could get outs – look above for a perfect reference to its ability to demoralize right-handers. The slider’s step back to a pedestrian 14% SwStr rate silenced his biggest weapon, disabled by inconsistent mechanics that prevented proper command of his arsenal. Expect few strikeouts, inefficient innings, and rare moments of bliss in the rotation.
230. Bailey Falter (PIT, LHP)
He’s a Toby at best. It’s a four-pitch mix with nothing reaching a 15% SwStr rate and you’ll find yourself bargaining on Sunday morning as you convince yourself Falter is the stream to chase for the day. The four-seamer hovers 90 mph as he works in curves and sliders as much as possible to induce outs in play. His changeup is still a work in progress, but will appear a decent amount as the game progresses, which could be the sixth inning often as the Pirates will rely on him to devour frames for a shallow rotation. He’ll be a staple of your waiver wire throughout the year.
231. Jake Irvin (WAS, RHP)
This isn’t what you want. Irvin’s best skill is locating four-seamers inside to right-handers, but the shape is terrible, while his sinker’s arm-side movement isn’t utilized properly, relying on backdoor called strikes against right-handers instead of jamming them. Oh, and throwing it over 20% of the time to left-handers for a near 50% ICR. Oh no.
His breaking ball is a curveball that rarely misses bats and struggles to earn strikes against right-handers as the pitch floats far more than landing low. It just doesn’t add up to a pitcher you want to trust, even for one night.
232. Jordan Lyles (KCR, RHP)
Lyles had a longball problem last year, outlining the massive gap between his ERA and WHIP, though there was one element that still shocks me: His four-seamer, despite some terrible locations, mediocre shape, and 70% strike rate, held a 98th percentile ICR rate at 33%. His four-seamer was apparently one of the best mitigators of damage in play. It dropped over ten points from 2022 and I can’t justify that mark sticking for another year.
But he still had a 6.28 ERA last year! Right, because he had six games for 6+ ER and allowed far too many longballs. Well, his slider was worse as its sweeping action wasn’t low but stayed up far more than it should have (as Kyle Bland calls it, a “Chimney Sweeper”. I’m super proud of him for that). while his formerly reliable curveball was horrific with a sub 50% strike rate. So why wasn’t the fastball crushed more? I DON’T KNOW. Well, okay, I see it more now. Batters got under the pitch far more often, resulting in a massive climb to its launch angle. In short, more fly balls, more home runs, but more pop-outs and cans of corn as well. I don’t trust Lyles to toe the line well, though in spacious Kansas City, that 2.00 HR/9 could fall down a touch more in another full season there.
There are positives that you shouldn’t ignore. Lyles isn’t destined to fail every night – 25% of his starts last year were solid as he has the leash to go long for the Royals. That’s a low chance. But it’s a chance and those desperate streams could work out better than others. Just don’t two-step him with only a 12.5% chance that both work in your favor.
233. Patrick Corbin (WAS, LHP)
I hope for the days when Corbin gets back on track, but there just isn’t enough in the tank. His four-seamer gets crushed by batters on both sides of the plate, his slider doesn’t earn the whiffs that it used to, and his sinker, while being a surprisingly good pitch against left-handers, doesn’t swing a big enough stick.
That slider was the money maker back in the day, but it’s getting hung too often, while not being tempting enough against right-handers to induce a 40% O-Swing, forcing its strike rate to fall to under 60% last year. That turned to more fastballs, which turned into more damage.
I don’t see a redemption coming for Corbin unless something dramatically changes with his fastballs or slider, and there’s no indication either will come, especially after years of the same struggles.
234. Trevor Williams (WAS, RHP)
#NeverTrevor. Nothing in his arsenal misses bats, and while his general command is above average, his stuff weighs down the entire approach. Against right-handers, he’s able to keep his slider down, but the pitch held just a 51% strike rate as batters refused to chase it out of the zone, sporting just a 10% SwStr rate. Against right-handers. That’s abysmal. The curve was more reliable as a strike pitch with a 22% usage and should see more action with the best ICR in his arsenal, though that could be explained by its early usage as batters are more passive.
Against left-handers, Williams does a great job of locating four-seamers up-and-in, while trying to beat them away with his changeup. Two problems here. First, his four-seamer’s best quality is its location with decent VAA and extension, but it comes in under 90 mph with terrible movement. That makes the pitch either work inside or get pummeled, which can be a problem when it’s the only pitch above a 60% strike rate against left-handers. That changeup? Sub 50% strikes, though it mitigates hard contact plenty. He’s near the spot each time, but he just doesn’t get enough chases on it to justify the horrible 21% zone rate.
Please don’t.
Tier 21 – More Youngin’s To Be Aware Of
It’s a mix of guys I like who I don’t expect to show up and others who could have an early opportunity and may be able to do something with it.It’s a mix of guys I like who I don’t expect to show up and others who could have an early opportunity and may be able to do something with it.
235. Ty Madden (DET, RHP)
Ty Madden brought the 🔥 for the @erie_seawolves.
The @tigers' sixth-ranked prospect retired all 12 batters he faced, notching 6 K's and dialing his FB up to 98 mph: pic.twitter.com/Oguz19f4pM
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 15, 2023
I wish I had more data on Ty Madden, but we don’t have Hawkeye installed in all Double-A parks, sadly. We’ll know more this year when he’s in Triple-A and the report at the moment is that he enjoys high heaters while punishing batters with a gyro slider and similar curve. The changeup is in development (aren’t they all?) and the 10% walk rate is the most annoying part of it all. As with many prospects, the stuff is good enough that if he finds a rhythm in Triple-A, he could turn into an arm to target upon call-up. Let’s see what he does in April and May.
236. Chase Petty (CIN, RHP)
From when I saw his High-A debut last year to his most recent start, Chase Petty looks like a new pitcher. More to come on @BaseballHQ in a couple days. pic.twitter.com/ntAktat36r
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) June 4, 2023
Petty has great fastball command, though it’s sitting 92-95 mph as opposed to 97+ in high school, where he could flirt with 100 mph. It’s paired with a slider that can be the wipeout pitch many dream of…or a floater. He’ll need to refine the #2 pitch as his third is a splitter that can’t be relied on outside of its time nullifying left-handers. There’s a ton of potential here should Petty take that step, which has a higher probability than others given the 20-year-old’s heat in high school.
237. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL, RHP)
Ummm, he has 17 inches of iVB (well above average!) on his four-seamer with good enough extension and 94/95 mph velocity (pretty much average that could both improve over time). The VAA isn’t good, but we’ve seen worse and I wonder if there’s a world where he takes his sub-40% hiLoc (yuck) and turns the heater into a legit upstairs offering to surprise batters. The slider/curve needs some work to become more stable inside the zone, while the changeup had some success when executed, and I see an arm who can surprise us if he finds a north-south rhythm with his pitches. Keep an eye on his development as he only just turned 21 years old.
238. Jack Leiter (TEX, RHP)
“It’s just about being under control, staying in control of myself and of the game.” — Jack Leiter
“I try to keep it as simple as I can.” — Wyatt Langford
The pair of Top 5 @Rangers prospects flashed their skillsets for @RidersBaseball: https://t.co/SbISwbWmLd pic.twitter.com/MoM72oWY9Z
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 17, 2023
We know the upside, it’s a matter of staying at the top of his game. His dominance at Vanderbilt hasn’t translated to the minors as well as many hoped and injuries have slowed him down plenty, though there are moments when he looks like the ace of old. His fastball seems to be overpowering upstairs with a legit breaking ball and if the K/BB/SwStr rates in Triple-A this year are exceptional, it’ll tell the story of a pitcher ready to make an impact for what will likely be a banged and bruised Rangers rotation. Forget all the trials and tribulations – if Leiter gets the call and he’s had success in Triple-A in 2024, you better take a chance.
239. Ben Brown (CHC, RHP)
Ben Brown 💪
The No. 3 @Cubs prospect whiffed nine over five scoreless frames for the @IowaCubs. It's the fifth start this season with at least nine punchouts for the righty. pic.twitter.com/LnDZIKNCWA
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) July 19, 2023
He throws a 95/96 mph fastball without good VAA, but solid iVB and extension that could make it a good foundation for his arsenal. However, he may turn into a reliever as he was used exclusively out of the pen in Triple-A when he returned from injury in September, and his two-pitch focus of fastballs and a strong slider could make him head to the pen for good. I’d be cautious testing the waters on Brown when he arrives, given my concerns about whether the four-seamer can bully batters enough to justify a two-pitch mix.
240. Kai-Wei Teng (SFG, RHP)
Kai-Wei Teng was mystifying Las Vegas Stars yesterday with his wide assortment of shapes and speeds pic.twitter.com/ScXZCVCfRd
— Roger Munter (@rog61) September 11, 2023
Teng tallied nearly 130 frames in Double-A and Triple-A last year, making him one of the first options the Giants will turn to when looking at their farm for a replacement arm. He’s sported 27%+ strikeout rates since 2019, with legit whiff numbers as well, thanks to a low arm angle to earn whiffs on his sinker and four-seamer, a slider & pair, and even curves + changeups to give a wide variety of looks to hitters. He’s a kitchen sink arm with more whiffs than you’d expect and that adaptability makes him an intriguing pitcher, though the high walk rates may make for a bit more volatility than we’d like. He’s an interesting one, possibly without a true mastery of a single offering that will limit his effectiveness at the bigs.
241. Jairo Iriarte (SDP, RHP)
9 strikeouts for Jairo Iriarte yesterday pic.twitter.com/j8PwUf47CD
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) September 17, 2023
He throws mid-to-upper 90s with spotty command, with his changeup leading his secondaries, followed by a slider that is hit or miss. He has a delivery heavily resembling Pedro Martinez, and while that’s not a fair comparison, it’s hard not to be enamored watching him hurl a baseball. There’s legit electricity in this arm and if he’s able to iron out the walks and give fewer indications of a Cherry Bomb career, he may deserve your attention. Irairte is worth the spec add the moment he gets the call.
242. Joey Cantillo (CLE, LHP)
Man I’ve missed watching Joey Cantillo. Was hurt for most of last year after dominating in 2019. He has a slew of offspeed pitches that were all working. Ended with 7K through 5IP. First strikeout didn’t come till the 3rd inning. Was dominant once he settled in. pic.twitter.com/oz8m9sFGkH
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) April 14, 2022
You should be hyper-aware of Cantillo. The Guardians have little SP depth and Cantillo racked up 111 strikeouts in 95 frames in Triple-A last year…though it did come with a 4.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP as he held a horrid 13% walk rate. He’s a lefty-slinger who is sure to rack up strikeouts with a filthy changeup and a devastating slider to left-handers. The 94 mph fastball isn’t one to bully too many, but when he’s able to spot it, he can overwhelm. This is likely to be more of a Cherry Bomb starter with some legitimate highs and chaotic lows (the good ole Shag Rug will be very present here), but sure to make waves when he arrives, especially if the curve can join the slider in becoming consistent strike earners.
243. Daniel Espino (CLE, RHP)
Daniel Espino, Wicked Breaking Balls. 🤢
Also hit 101mph. h/t @premier_sox
[Indians 1st round pick, 2019] pic.twitter.com/0CT0pNaXkc— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 20, 2021
He was one of the top MLB prospects until injuries got in the way, including missing all of 2023 with a shoulder injury. The Guardians are sure to be safe with him this season, especially at just 23 years old next year. It’s a big 101 mph fastball with a devastating slider when he’s cooking, with shockingly low walk rates along the way as he carried over 20% Swstr rates in 2021 and 2022. It’s just a matter of health and finding that rhythm again.
244. Tekoah Roby (STL, RHP)
Tekoah Roby, welcome to the Cardinals pic.twitter.com/QgLbweO0tX
— Cardinals Talk (@theredbird_way) July 30, 2023
His mid-90s four-seamer with excellent whiffability upstairs paired with a monstrous curve make for an ideal BSB that could make him relevant the second he gets the chance in St. Louis. I wonder how the rest of his repertoire will play out and whether he can recover from a poor showing in the AFL. When chasing prospects, we look for a foundational fastball with a reliable secondary and Roby seems to have both. Circle him when looking for stashes.
245. Griff McGarry (PHI, RHP)
Phillies No. 8 prospect Griff McGarry recorded 16 outs last night in High-A, and 13 came from strikeouts!
5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K, 101 P
— Farm To Fame (@FarmToFame_) June 23, 2022
McGarry was a 97 mph arm with a great slider and curve, but took a major step back in 2023 as his poor command became a larger issue. If we’re seeing him in 2024, it means McGarry has taken steps forward with his command, hopefully with his velocity returning to 95+ as well. Be careful jumping in on McGarry as that command has always haunted him, outlining a Cherry Bomb at best. Volatility is not a fun animal to tame in-season.
246. Mason Black (SFG, RHP)
Mason Black punched out 9 over four innings of work vs Bowie on Friday.
Black over his last 6 outings (26.1 IP) has a 0.34 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 13 K/9 with a 6.33 K/BB and .124 OppBA/.342 OppOPS pic.twitter.com/L1T2wASGeL
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) July 9, 2023
With thirteen starts in Triple-A last year, Black could find the majors soon, and with a 28% strikeout rate with just an 11% SwStr rate, I wonder if he’s more called-strike-focused than ideal for a prospect. He has a low arm angle but is still able to get on top of the ball, suggesting a four-seamer with more iVB than what you expect from typical three-quarters arm slots, while the slider is a vicious offering. If he’s able to learn Webb’s changeup, Black could be something special in the bigs. That’s a MASSIVE leap, though, and for now, we can only hope Black develops the efficiency to last more than five frames in Triple-A to earn a debut before the summer.
247. Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS, RHP)
Wikelman Gonzalez(BOS/RHP/21/A+)
5.2 IP/3 H/2 ER/1 BB/9 K all damage done in first inning.
19 whiffs/42% CSW/91 P/58 S(64%)
Last 7 starts: 34 IP/56 K/3.44 ERA#DirtyWater
pic.twitter.com/V6aCNXyvRa— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) June 11, 2023
The smaller-bodied Gonzalez sports a low arm angle that makes his mid-90s heater explode at the top of the zone, catalyzing a 35% strikeout in Double-A with a 14% overall SwStr rate. You love to see that, though it came with a horrid 15% walk rate as he lacks a strong secondary pitch for strikes. There is a legit curve and a developing changeup, and the question is how he’ll develop across more time in the minors after 110+ frames in Double-A in 2023. He’ll likely have some more growing pains in Triple-A before finding a balance of whiffs and strikes that works, making him an unlikely option for a confident pickup this year.
248. Carson Whisenhunt (SFG, LHP)
Carson Whisenhunt couldn’t have asked for a better Double-A debut.
The No. 8 @SFGiants prospect fanned seven over five shutout frames for @GoSquirrels: pic.twitter.com/E4L1EepK6v
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) June 8, 2023
The southpaw boasted impressive strikeout and whiff marks as he rose quickly up to Double-A – a product of a legit plus changeup that gets featured nearly 40% of the time in his arsenal. The other 60% is the major question, with his high release point reducing the effectiveness of his four-seamer and forcing his curve to do more work than it currently can. If Whisenhunt can add some velocity or a slider/cutter to the mix to help him earn strikes instead of the hittable heater, then there’s legit fantasy potential with that changeup leading the way. His arm action does suggest a gyro slider working well to keep LHBs at bay, which would unlock Whisenhunt as a legit prospect arm as long as the four-seamer isn’t horribly commanded.
249. Landen Roupp (SFG, RHP)
Landen Roupp punched out 10 over his six-inning start in Friday’s victory over Harisburg. Roupp thus far with Richmond has a 12.9 K/9, along with a .186 OppBA and a 0.94 WHIP pic.twitter.com/5AXq5z0sgo
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) September 4, 2022
It’s hard not to fall for Roupp’s curveball, and in fact, he did himself as well, sporting it well over 33% of the time in his minor league career, even at times over 50%. It’s a gorgeous yacker, and with a sinker, slider, and changeup to round out the arsenal, there’s a fair amount of hype for Landen as a starter. It’s still unclear how successful the other three offerings will be – the low-to-mid 90s sinker doesn’t wow me – but his clean mechanics and great control in the minors suggest he’s equipped to develop the rest of his arsenal to become a legit starter when he arrives. Pay attention to Landen, even if it may take until mid-season or even 2025 until we see him in the big leagues after just ten games in Double-A last year.
250. Ian Seymour (TBR, LHP)
Strut your stuff, Ian Seymour.
He strikes out the 1st Triple-A batter he faces as part of a perfect 1st frame#BULLieve pic.twitter.com/B6iN49S2so
— Durham Bulls (@DurhamBulls) September 9, 2021
Command pitcher from the left side with unconventional mechanics who has sported impressive strikeout numbers (near 30%) and SwStr rates (around 14/15%) in Double-A. He locates heaters around the zone with a trio of secondaries and could jump up the ranks quickly with the lackluster Triple-A arms in the Rays’ system. Timing may not work out well with the second half of 2024 hopefully seeing the return of at least one injured arm, but be on the lookout for Seymour over the summer as a sneaky depth arm if he gets the call.
251. Jake Eder (CWS, LHP)
Jake Eder has one of the better sliders in the Minors. Just devastates hitters ☠️
#MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/DuXzbdCkJa— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) July 30, 2023
His slider is legit, the question is how good the fastball will be in the year ahead. He’s currently throwing 92-94 and missing the heater of old, and the White Sox are likely going to wait a bit until they see Eder looking more like the prospect from 2021 before TJS. I’m also curious as to the third pitch he will flex in order to showcase that he can be a reliable starter.
252. Luis Gil (NYY, RHP)
I’ve decided I’m excited for 2024 Luis Gil pic.twitter.com/0L1UOedlMx
— Max Mannis (@MaxMannis) January 30, 2024
Now that I have our PLV App, I was able to take a look at Gil’s four-seamer back in 2021, and that was a wonderful offering. 96/97 mph with great extension, nearly 17 inches of iVB, above-average VAA…Sigh. If only I could trust that he’d be able to locate it upstairs all days. In addition, his slider can be a filthy offering as well, but it’s not one of those “ZOMG LOOK AT THAT” pitches and often fluttered out of his hand as an easy take. Now that he’s back from TJS, the Yankees are sure to have him start in Triple-A more than the two games and four frames he had in 2023 before giving him a shot in the majors and I’m incredibly curious as to whether he can hold 96 mph as a starter across five frames, while hopefully finding a way to throw more strikes with both heaters and sliders. Given how legit that four-seamer is, I’ll have my eye on Gil, but the volume doesn’t look to be there right now.
253. Wilmer Flores (DET, RHP)
Wilmer Flores is back to posting goose eggs 🔥
The @tigers' No. 3 prospect spins four two-hit frames for the @erie_seawolves. pic.twitter.com/BfGU9fpxwv
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 23, 2023
I’m not nearly as impressed by Flores. The polish is lacking through A+ and AA, and it could come together with time spent with Tread Athletics and more time in the minors. His arsenal offers a fastball with mid-90s velocity, a cutter for strikes, and a curveball he hopes to get chases with two strikes. Plenty of volatility and rough days on the hill this past year speak to a difficult sell for potential in 2024, though an ironed-out delivery without a massive head-jerk and rapid-end movement could come over time to make him a stable arm in 2025.
254. Joey Estes (OAK, RHP)
He gave us ten frames last year, with his second start flashing excellent BSB command as his four-seamer had solid iVB despite its low 92/93 mph velocity. With a good slider and a developing changeup, I’m curious whether Estes can demand a spot out of camp on an Athletics team that is likely going with the hot hand to make the final spots of the rotation.
Braves 19 year old RHP Joey Estes threw 7 shutout innings yesterday. Through 54 innings, 2.33 ERA, 64 K, 12 BB in 2021.
FB: 93-95, all K’s were on the FB in this outing. Liked going to it.
SL: 80-82, looks like it could be a swing and miss pitch.
CH: 84-86, nice armside fade. pic.twitter.com/0C5ZICvL3z
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) July 10, 2021
255. Mike Vasil (NYM, RHP)
His wide array of weapons makes Vasil the first call-up to start for the Mets this year. Is it worth your time? It likely depends on the team he faces and if he can keep the walks down in Triple-A prior to his debut. There’s promise in his breakers and heater locations, though if you’re searching for a “league winner,” I wouldn’t put Vasil on that list. He’s missing that extra spark to transform him into an arm to slot on your watch list.
Mike Vasil struck out 10 last night for Triple-A Syracuse
He should be considered a legitimate piece of starting pitching depth for 2024 pic.twitter.com/aaYcTYTRk5
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) September 15, 2023
Tier 22 – Settling For Less
These are current Free Agents who could start for desperate teams or long relievers who are just bridges between the current rotation and the prospects teams actually want to get innings, which means you should have very low expectations when they get the opportunity.
256. Adam Plutko (FA, RHP)
Plutko went to the KBO for two years and is searching for a team to take a shot on him after earning a 2.40 ERA in just over 285 frames. Don’t get too worked over that mark – it still came with a strikeout rate under 22% – but he’s capable of volume, and it’s possible the skills he gained overseas apply to a club who are trying to find their way through the year. I’m wagering we have a tinge of curiosity, watch for one inning, and go back to our phones as we call it an eve for Adam.
257. Spencer Turnbull (FA, RHP)
I have to believe a team will take a shot on Turnbull, who hasn’t had a proper shot to redeem himself after getting TJS in 2022 and struggling mightily in early 2023 as he dealt with a neck injury. Turnbull had a solid heater with a pair of whiffable breakers that hint at something strong if he’s able to get into a groove with the right team. It’s a looongshot, but watch the Rays snag him and make him into something of value. Oh Tampa, you saucy minx.
258. Roansy Contreras (PIT, RHP)
It has been fraying to observe Contreras descend from an exciting prospect who gave us one late-September game in 2021 with 96/97 mph goodness to a struggling reliever, demoted to Triple-A where he sat 93 mph in his final start. He breaks the Huascar Rule with a fantastic slider and lacking heater, though if he were able to retain the upper-90s heat of former days, there is more hope he has enough command to make the pair sing more often than not. It’s highly unlikely he gets there, though, and without much of a supporting cast, there’s still a persistent floor even if his four-seamer is at its peak.
259. Joe Ross (MIL, RHP)
Look, we saw the Brewers sign Ross after y’all forgot about him, and even after we saw him sit inside the rotation on Roster Resource, we knew. There isn’t a world where Ross is actually inside the Brewers rotation out of camp, right? RIGHT?! H*ck, Ross is the example I think of when I reflect on my old old affinity for sinkers back in 2014/2015, where Ross’ sinker/slider approach seemed like gold. What children we were. Ross is now two TJS surgeries deep and I’m awfully curious what we get now. He used to have a deadly slider back in the day, but that’s it. That’s always been it. I really hope he proves us all wrong and snipes the spot, even if means someone like Ashby or Hall don’t show up. They’ll have their chance.
260. Naoyuki Uwasawa (TBR, RHP)
I wonder how the Rays will use Uwasawa. On one hand, they have six SP already battling for five rotation spots and Uwasawa’s 90-92 mph heater + splitter make him more like a reliever than a legit deep start with his two slow breakers + a meh cutter. But it gets a ton of iVB! Not a big shock given his over-the-top delivery, which sadly makes it a poor VAA offering. We’ve seen that before and generally, iVB alone without either elite velocity or great VAA to match (or maybe extension?) don’t speak to a legit heater as much as we want it to be. I could be way off, though, and it’s important to keep track of not only Uwasawa, but the Rays as a whole as any opening in that rotation could mean we get Uwasawa making early starts that open the door to a potential value SP. Doubtful, but who knows.
261. Carlos Carrasco (CLE, RHP)
Oh hey, this is kinda cool to see. The Guardians have a completely full rotation, but let’s say they deal Bieber or have an injury or whatever. If Carrasco is healthy enough to routinely get on the mound and earns himself a spot on the roster out of camp, I imagine the Guardians will consider him their #6 SP and LR option instead of, say “Ben Lively“. I’m rooting for him and the slider/change to be on point. It’s easy to forget how solid he was for years and he deserves one more highlight.
262. Joey Wentz (DET, LHP)
Wait, the Tigers gave him 19 starts last year? Is that right? Weird, I legit don’t remember it being so many. Well, his four-seamer is a dead-zone and gets bamboozled, yet he throws it over 40% of the time. The savior is a cutter that works against both RHB and LHB, but it’s far from enough to even out the performance of that heater, with just 25% usage. If they flipped focus with his change and curve becoming more reliable strike pitches, then sure, it’s possible he develops. The Tigers have so many other arms to focus on, though, and with such a rough four-seamer, I have zero expectations here.
263. Bryan Hoeing (MIA, RHP)
Watching Hoeing last year got me slightly intrigued as he leans on sinkers to get his outs, but if the Marlins look the Hoeing for multiple starts this year, it’s more that the Marlins are hurting and not that Hoeing has earned his place. This is a desperate play in Draft-and-Holds just to find some sort of four inning volume…is that even valuable?
264. Zach Davies (FA, RHP)
Davies’ change is everything and to see him return a 20%+ SwStr rate against RHB…with a 50% ICR is the obvious answer to his struggles with Arizona. The thought is that some club will add Davies for some needed depth once injuries prop up and I’m sure there will be one or two starts this year that have fantasy relevance. Good luck trying to find those and please, don’t try to be smart with the matchups here. Davies isn’t predictable enough for that.
265. Eric Lauer (FA, LHP)
He battled an injury-riddled season and was released by the Brewers shortly after the season ended, leaving us wonder if Lauer is worth a gamble for a team this off-season. I’ve assumed Lauer’s four-seamer shape is better than average given it’s moments excelling at the top of the zone, but as Eno mentioned during an episode of podcast The Craft, whiffs are more of a product of location than stuff, while stuff equates to better ball-in-play outcomes. Seems counter-intuitive, but when you think of it at the level of range (poor location = no whiffs, for example), it makes a whole lot of sense. Anyway, given Lauer’s poor fastball shape that has gotten worse, I would be awfully hesitatant to trust this for 2024, even if he happens to sign with a club.
266. Drew Rucinski (FA, RHP)
It was a tough year for Rucinski, who hoped to make an impact in the majors after returning a solid season in the KBO. His dreams of reclamation came up short with just four rough outings, a hamstring injury, and a later diagnosis of a degenerative back injury that led to season-ending surgery. He’s not expected to be ready for opening day, though with the way pitchers are getting hurt, don’t be surprised if Rucinski finds a deal in the summer for a club desperate for help.
267. Adrián Martínez (OAK, RHP)
We saw one game in the rotation mixed with many two-inning performances down the stretch for Martínez and it’s possible he earns a starting gig at some point. It’s a lovely changeup when it’s cooking and a solid slider that should have an adjustment made to massively up its 53% strike rate (just target more armside and you’ll be fine). That being said, the sinker makes my skin crawl and it makes for a shaky ceiling even if the slider and slowball work out.
268. Kenny Rosenberg (LAA, LHP)
The man is a Toby at best with a changeup focus + a four-seamer with a shocking amount of iVB (17 inches?!), which makes for nights that Kenny can scrap together 5+ frames, if not hint at a quality start if his cutter can earn quick outs to right-handers. If that heater didn’t come with 90/91 mph velocity with terrible extension and a steep VAA (we want flat!), then I’d start to believe he could transform into a somewhat reliable back-end arm in 15-teamers, but in his current form, Kenny seems destined to be a random add during the season in hope that he can string together decency in a two-step when the Angels rotation is depleted.
269. José Butto (NYM, RHP)
He had some of those rare moments of success stepping into the rotation as his four-seamer was able to avoid damage to both LHBs and RHBs, but the rest of the arsenal is too pedestrian for us to get amped. There’s nothing to latch onto with Butto to suggest he’s more than a desperate streamer, even if he has decent VAA on the four-seamer. Maybe there’s above-average command on that fastball, but the change and slider need to earn more strikes for me to believe he’s worth your time.
270. Ryan Yarbrough (LAD, LHP)
The Dodgers are that kind of squad that will give Yarbrough more love than you’d expect. Why? Well, when you’re limiting innings across your team, you’ll have rare bullpen games and shorter leashes, which means Yarbrough feels destined to vulture Wins here and there throughout the season – he earned eight last season in just 90 frames last year, after all. He throws sub 90 mph with cutters, changeups, and curves zigging and zagging around the edges of the zone, getting RHB to swing out of their shoes at times as he sneaks those slow sinkers in the zone whenever possible, while LHB get the ole heater/breaker mix as you’d expect from a southpaw. It’s fine, but it’ll be an elevated hit rate, few strikeouts, and you’re hoping the low walk rate and groundballs are timed well enough to squeeze outs to end the fifth and sixth frames. It’s a desperate streaming play for Wins in season when he gets his moments and while I won’t rule it out completely, you can’t make this your target.
271. Anthony DeSclafani (MIN, RHP)
He was dealt to Seattle and then shipped to Minnesota weeks later, making Tony Disco a depth piece the Twins badly needed. There’s a higher chance DeSclafani is in the rotation here than in Seattle, and yet, I can’t get myself to put him in the other tier. I personally believe he should be used as a long reliever to let Varland and Paddack get their opportunities to become more than just a #5 SP, with an expectation for a spot to naturally open up over time. Keep him stretched out to relieve a struggling arm for 3-4 frames here and there, and the clear option to take over when needed. It happens every year, after all.
As far as skills go, to quote skrot10191 from our Playback.tv chat: “Please Mr. Slider, can I have some WAR?” Back during his thrilling 2021 season, DeSclafani was able to somehow maintain sub 30% ICR rates on both his sinker and four-seamer against RHBs. That mark is massively different now, rising to 40%+ with little sign of returning. Sure, there’s a chance DeSclafani can get through a game with 50% sliders and steal a Win here and there, but hot dang, he shouldn’t be drafted. The Twins likely know this and will keep him as a backup option.
272. Michael Grove (LAD, RHP)
I like Grove’s slider, but unfortunately there’s nothing else there to support it. The four-seamer doesn’t have a good shape and hopes for called strikes with both RHB and LHB (especially LHB) demolish it when they put it play. The curve can kinda help, but without a deeper arsenal, this breaks the Huascar Rule, even if that slider held a 27% SwStr against RHB last year. Sigh. If only that fastball was better…or maybe he learns a legit changeup…or SOMETHING. Well he has a cutter for LHB. That’s a start, but 35%-40% of an absolutely horrid pitch just hurts too much.
273. Hogan Harris (OAK, LHP)
We saw Harris last year provide Toby frames here and there, though he fizzled in the second half. The Athletics may turn to him again for his big breakers from the left side, though the fantasy impact is very limited. Remember, Toby arms who rely on 5/6 frames to make up for their lack of strikeouts rely on Wins to earn most of their value. The Athletics won’t have many of those.
274. Austin Voth (SEA, RHP)
With Tony Disco off the Minnesota, it looks like Voth is back to being the SP #6 if Emerson Hancock needs some more time in the minors. Remember Voth during that super interesting time in 2022 with the Orioles? Well, the four-seamer still finds a way to get whiffs as he elevates it effectively with two strikes, but I wish I had more faith in the rest of his stuff. The cutter/change/slider/curve just don’t do enough while the four-seamer gets tattered when isn’t executed just right. I don’t have much faith he’ll seize the role and hold it if he gets the opportunity this year.
275. Elieser Hernández (LAD, RHP)
Oh look, it’s our yearly Random pitcher you forgot about signs with the Dodgers and now you make the joke that he’s going to get fixed and be a stud. You know, because it worked for Yamamoto, Shelby, Syndergaard, and so on. Ummm what. Yamamoto?! Uhhhh, ya. The first and only Yamamoto to throw a baseball for the Dodgers – Jordan Yamamoto. How could you do this to me. How could you believe that Elieser will suddenly have a fully working shoulder and overcome a historically meh fastball? LET ME BE, NICK.
276. Joey Lucchesi (NYM, LHP)
His cutter can be effective inside to LHBs, but that’s about it. The sinker stays away and I don’t believe it’ll work over a proper sample. His “churve” (curveball thrown with a changeup grip. Don’t worry about it) isn’t the major weapon it needs to be to turn Lucchesi into a proper arm and voila, there’s a very desperate option if the Mets have to lean on him for any significant time this year.
277. Luke Weaver (NYY, RHP)
I spent a solid moment looking into Weaver as I noticed he split up his slider into a cutter and sweeper in July, which was a much-needed change and…resulted in a terrible ERA and WHIP across thirteen games. FINE. The Yanks could be adding a sixth starter with all the Blake Snell rumors flying around (I’m writing this at the very start of February), but without another arm, Weaver is likely the first option for a start, if not as a 3-4 inning arm to carry over into the bullpen, and likely only as a last resort if the team doesn’t have an off-day that week to let them skip the spot in the rotation. I don’t think Weaver will get that role come June or even May given that Warren and Hampton look like strong options in Triple-A. Sadly, with Weaver’s poor heater and a changeup that can be good but isn’t consistent enough, I just don’t have high hopes. Maybe he can pull off the “Cannibal McSanchez” with the cutter, lean on the changeup, and punch out batters with the sweeper? Maaaaaybe?
278. Jaime Barría (CLE, RHP)
The Guardians gave Barría a minor league deal at the start of December and we could see him step in for a few starts here and there. His whole focus is a slider featured half of the time that boasts a near 70% strike rate, though the four-seamer, sinker, and changeup leave a whole lot to be desired. There are brief moments when the slider carries him + his sinker jams batters and his changeup befuddles, though it’s nigh impossible to anticipate those evenings.
279. Zach Plesac (FA, RHP)
The Angels don’t have a whole lot of exciting options and despite having an atrocious year between the majors and minors last season, who knows. Maybe Plesac has something new to hint at his rookie year, using his breakers well, axing the fastball as much as possible, and having his old changeup. You never know.
Tier 23 – Oh Right, The Rockies
I didn’t forget about you, I just didn’t want to think about it.
280. Kyle Freeland (COL, LHP)
Freeland will have his moments in 2024, though the stuff doesn’t encourage any sort of affinity for 12 or 15 teamers, save for the rare two-step on the road. His approach comes without a major whiff pitch (especially if that slider continues to live in ym-Loc% and fails to land low), relying on his sinker and four-seamer to jam LHB and RHB respectively. Freeland has had decent success limiting hard contact this way, though he’s lacking significant firepower to put batters away. His curve is the best he’s got, which works decently well in two strikes against left-handers, but is underwhelming against right-handers and keeps Freeland well under a 20% strikeout rate for the year.
In short, it’s Coors + he doesn’t miss a ton of bats + relies too much on pristine command + don’t do this to yourself. Cool? Cool.
281. Cal Quantrill (COL, RHP)
The move to Colorado on paper makes some sense. The Rockies just want innings and Quantrill is that guy save for a barking shoulder in 2023, as Quantrill flipped sinkers and cutters into the zone and befuddled analysts (like me!) as he held a 3.16 ERA across two years with 336 frames. His performance diminished dramatically last season as he failed to jam right-handers with his sinker nearly as often, while failing to earn strikes with his cutter to left-handers, and serving up meatballs with his sinker to the tune of a 52% ICR rate to LHB. Yikes.
The hope here is for Quantrill to find that rhythm on both sides of the plate, allowing him to bring his groundball rate near 50% once again in a park that desperately needs him to keep the ball out of the air. That’s a nice hope n all, and if Quantrill finds that groove and lands a lovely matchup on the road, things can go swingingly for six frames. They will be rare moments that tempt many a manager, and it’s very much in your best interest to not spin this wheel. It’s like dinosaur bones as you play in Coors – it’s beneath you.
282. Austin Gomber (COL, LHP)
There’s not much to latch onto for Gomber after his approach was horrendous in 2023. He couldn’t get his slider down with any consistency, his four-seamer was obliterated by LHB and RHB as it has massively steep VAA but he didn’t command it low enough to take advantage of it, allowing it to find the barrel constantly when inside the zone. His curve sometimes helped, but it failed to be the putaway pitch he wanted it to be against RHB, and the changeup sat in the middle of the zone.
It’s bad. Gomber needs to get his slider down-and-gloveside more consistently while finding a primary heater. It could be a cutter, but LHBs need a different look than his four-seamer. Expect more trouble to come his way with his current arsenal, and if success comes, identify the pitch that’s working. If the four-seamer is still the same, there isn’t long-term success en route.
283. Dakota Hudson (COL, RHP)
Sure, why not. Let’s give all the Rockies starters the MEGA FORMATTING for this article as Hudson is likely starting for the crew and is sure to have those patented 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 Ks, 3 BBs games because he chucks sinkers and hopes for all the grounders. The slider has had these brief moments of actually being a solid whiff pitch, but we all know the truth. Hudson’s sinker moves a lot, he can’t command it, and the Rockies are happy to have gotten someone who can at least keep the ball on the ground and find enough gloves to discover the sixth frequently enough that it doesn’t pan out into an aerial shot of a lost ancient city each time he gets there. Wow, I never thought we’d ever find the Sixth…they said that starters stopped seeing it after 2012…
There will be a day this year you actually could benefit from Hudson, I’m sure, but come on. That’s not the life you want.
284. Ryan Feltner (COL, RHP)
He has a changeup that can take down LHBs as well as a slider that acts as a cutter to get strikes. His four-seamer needs work against LHBs he should get it further up or inside to avoid damage, while against RHBs, the fastball was shockingly good in 2023 in its limited sample. Expect it to get worse as the sample gets larger because its iVB is atrocious, especially as Feltner doesn’t have a secondary above a 10% SwStr rate against RHBs. I don’t think that four-seamer can maintain its current 15%+ SwStr clip against RHBs, making a very risky play.
Tier 24 – Opportunity Is Out There
These pitchers are currently Free Agents and have an outside chance of actually having a few decent starts for a squad. We’re talking deep in the woods outside.
285. Justin Dunn (FA, RHP)
Dunn dealt with a shoulder strain in 2021, then again in 2022, and was shut down with a rotator cuff injury in March of 2023, followed by surgery in September that very likely forces him out of 2024. Then why is he here? Because there’s a chance someone signs Dunn, let’s him recover, and he shows up in September. There was something fun with his breaker and heater with the Mariners, I WON’T FORGET IT.
286. Johnny Cueto (FA, RHP)
We’ve seen Cueto magic before and I have to wonder if a team will be desperate enough to take a chance on it. I still can’t get over how well he gets whiffs on his four-seamer by locating it so well upstairs. Location, y’all.
287. Corey Kluber (FA, RHP)
It’s unclear if Kluber is hanging up the cleats or giving it one more shot this season. His 37-year-old season was a poor representation of his all-star career, concluding with shoulder pain that ended his season in June. He’s only one season removed from a 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, suggesting there may be just a touch left in the tank that a squad will take a chance on or at least hope to have a veteran presence in the locker room.
288. Noah Syndergaard (FA, RHP)
The Dodgers will fix him! Now that we know Syndergaard is a chucker without a legit secondary left to heavily lean on, there really isn’t much of a hope Thor not only finds a regular gig, but also has one where he can improve in a significant way. Velocity? Breakers? Dare I say actual command?! It’s not gonna happen.
289. Brad Keller (FA, RHP)
Keller is enduring symptoms of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and I hope he’s in a state where he’s able to help a team in 2024. We may not see him this year, if at all, depending on the severity – traditionally, getting surgery removes a player for a year and it’s rare to have success in the majors following the procedure. If he’s alright, the fastball/slider combo has had its moment and could a small home somewhere.
290. Rich Hill (FA, LHP)
Incredibly, Hill is still in the discussion after all these years as the “old guy of the league”, but we all know the days of that hook helping him return ridiculous K-BB% numbers are a thing of the past. Still fun seeing him earn whiffs at 88 mph, even if it’s not the 18/19 inches of vertical break it was back in 2021. I really didn’t appreciate the sticky stuff era enough as a pitching fan. IF ONLY I WAS SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THE RESEARCH. Ahem. I can see some get tempted by Hill, but he just doesn’t have that pizzaz anymore. Please don’t.
291. Jose Ureña (FA, RHP)
Remember kids, If you trust José, Ureña boatload of trouble. I still can’t believe he had a touch of success with the Rockies last year. Of course he did. You know, the Rangers have oh-so-few starters at the moment and have a rotation with questionable health records. Ureña may get a start earlier than the others here and yet, that shouldn’t make you act in any way.
292. Julio Teheran (FA, RHP)
What a wild ride it was watching Teheran actually have success for a hot moment last season. He can’t keep getting away with it! Well, I mean, he didn’t. That’s why he’s a Free Agent still and far far away from your fantasy teams.
293. Chase Anderson (FA, RHP)
The fella got his innings with the Rockies last year and when they tell you “mmmm, we’re good”, you know it’s a bit rough. Maybe he’ll land on his feet somewhere – after all, he did go five scoreless against the Dodgers in Coors to end the year. That’s something, right? Why are you asking me? I’m not a GM of an MLB team. THEN FIND ME SOMEONE WHO IS.
294. Dallas Keuchel (FA, LHP)
It’s very likely the end of the line for Keuchel after a rough showing last season, but I’ll always have a soft spot for his introduction of the Neckbeard approach. What a wonderful, frustrating thing it is when it works.
295. Jake Odorizzi (FA, RHP)
He’s living on through Bailey Oberizzi and while he’s hunting for a job, you should be hunting something else. He’s a free agent now after missing last year with shoulder surgery and while there’s a chance he gets it going again at 33-years-old, I can’t expect him to have his old heater nor its command, let alone a proper secondary to pair with it.
296. Zack Greinke (FA, RHP)
We all assumed Greinke would quietly retire because that is the Greinke way n all, but apparently he’s entertaining returning…? If he does, you know he’ll have the leash to complete five frames at the very least, but that leash can be laced with the embarrassing trauma of my youth and there’s nothing you can do to get me in a room with that leash. WHY WOULD I SAY THAT?!
297. Yonny Chirinos (FA, RHP)
It was awfully strange watching Atlanta, the powerhouse of the NL East, throw Chirinos with any sort of regularity in 2023 despite their overwhelming number of options in the minors, but not as strange as it actually working some of those games. While we say there isn’t a whole lot of SP depth out there on the FA market, there certainly are a plethora of options like Chirinos out there (as you can see above), which makes me a bit skeptical Chirinos will be able to find work like he did last year. It’s certainly possible, and if he magically gets a perfect situation like he did in Atlanta, well there’s a desperate Sunday streamer. Nick. I’m just trying to be positive, y’all.
Tier 25 – Wait, How Many Prospects Are On Here
Prospect people, I know I’m likely ranking a few prospects here terribly (okay find, I’m sure it’s MANY), but with the limited intel out there and lack of Statcast data outside Triple-A, this is what I’ve got. Remember, this is for 2024 only, so guys like Susana and Lesko who are a massive longshot to see the MLB before 2025 are down here.
298. Allan Winans (ATL, RHP)
Armed with a four-seamer that he really shouldn’t throw, Winans has an interesting sinker/change/slider mix that could work. He can sit arm-side with sinkers and down against LHB, tunneling the changeup well (and abused against LHB), while the sub 80 mph slider (read: curve-like) can land in the zone for strikes and become a whiff pitch against right-handers. I see that working out in the right direction, though I wonder if he’ll lean properly into the three-pitch mix and shelve the four-seamer. Seriously, it’s horrendous as a dead-zone heater with no attributes to suggest success with a 68.8% ICR rate. Yes, that is ZEROTH PERCENTILE.
Allan Winans, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/fCJkpJ2cwh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2023
299. Quinn Priester (PIT, RHP)
He has these brief moments where his gyro slider is filthy while he pumps a well-spotted 96 mph sinker to back it up. Then his cut-action four-seamer is poorly placed, he can’t locate the breaker, and the sinker gets laced. It’s far from polished and even when it all comes together, it’ll come down to his fastballs being good enough to support a clearly wicked slider (assuming it is well-commanded, too!). There’s a whole lot of growth needed here and he’ll get a rotation spot only if the Pirates are truly desperate.
Quinn Priester, Wicked Sliders. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/wl9Pi6V9aH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 13, 2023
300. Jimmy Joyce (SEA, RHP)
#Mariners No. 28 prospect Jimmy Joyce struck out a pair in two scoreless innings on Sunday.@ANG_Recruiting #ServeYourWay pic.twitter.com/vQn3SXFyGV
— Arkansas Travelers (@ARTravs) September 12, 2023
He’ll get the promotion to Triple-A this year, or maybe even stick around in Double-A as the Mariners enjoy keeping their pitching prospects away from the PCL as much as possible. He pitched in the AFL this past year and features a true two-seamer and a changeup that plays off of it + a curveball as his major mix-up offering. The stuff isn’t exciting while his command fluctuates – typical for a lower arm-angle pitcher like Joyce who relies on getting on the side of the ball. He could turn into a groundball machine with the lively ride on his heater, which generally outlines a capped ceiling for fantasy managers (read: higher BABIPs and fewer strikeouts).
301. Bryan Mata (BOS, RHP)
Bryan Mata looking nice in his spring debut pic.twitter.com/QKYY4UZIGg
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) February 26, 2023
He’s a sinkerballer who was able to put up a solid 30% strikeout rate in 80+ frames in Triple-A across 2022, though his injuries limited him to just 27 IP last year, while his control went out the window with a 20%+ walk rate that was higher than his strikeout rate. It’ll be easy to wave those aside if he finds a groove in Triple-A early with his sinker and solid breaker, though I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
302. Sean Burke (CWS, RHP)
Sean Burke had 4 K’s in his first AAA start. There were a couple rough bits, but the stuff is there. He hasn’t been talked about enough. #Knights #WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/075PfJ48Pt
— Ian Eskridge (@dailywhitesox) September 23, 2022
He was going to be the option last year for the ChiSox until shoulder soreness slowed him down as he pitched in just nine games in Triple-A last year. His heater comes with excellent extension and iVB, but the low 90s velocity and poor VAA hurt him. The change and curve are the two focuses, but I worry they lack the spark to make Burke worthwhile in the majors, at the very least for fantasy relevancy.
303. Dominic Hamel (NYM, RHP)
Dom Hamel had a massive outing last night to send Double-A Binghamton to the EL Championship.
7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. Combining with his regular season outings, his September:
21.2 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 7 BB, 32 K. Another improved pitcher in Mets system pic.twitter.com/RRMukhgbYh
— Joe DeMayo (@PSLToFlushing) September 22, 2023
I wonder if his four-seamer has the pitch shape we want to counteract its low-90s velocity. He has a variety of options in his arsenal, including two solid breakers, and if that four-seamer does play up, that makes for a surprisingly valuable arm when he does make his debut – he’s boasted 13%+ SwStr rates and a 30%+ strikeout rate in both A+ and AA. I don’t expect the Mets to turn to Hamel early in 2024 though.
304. Jackson Wolf (PIT, LHP)
Acquired from the Padres over the summer, Wolf is a big southpaw with a fastball struggling to hit 90 mph. The horizontal breaker and changeup make pre-velocity jump Sean Manaea the closest comp, though Wolf’s heater doesn’t jump on batters in the same way as that of the Baby Giraffe. The Pirates may turn to him for a few starts given their depleted rotation and I would avoid Wolf when he gets a start.
305. Angel Bastardo (BOS, RHP)
Pretty insane night for Angel Bastardo with Greenville — 24 swing and misses in only 83 pitches. pic.twitter.com/P7qewEEYpX
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) April 22, 2023
He sits mid-90s without an overpowering heater, but his secondaries are where he thrives with a solid changeup from the right side. There’s still polish to be found as he gets more frames in Double-A this year (just three games after being promoted in 2023), hopefully bringing his walk rates under 10% and replicating the 16/17% SwStr rates of A+ ball – a possible hurdle given the excellence of his secondaries that may not have the same effect against more disciplined hitters. I wouldn’t expect Bastardo to make a massive leap into the majors this year, though if he soars and gets pushed to Triple-A, there’s a chance he makes an appearance late in the second half.
306. Yu-Min Lin (ARI, LHP)
Yu-Min Lin was on point all night long.
The No. 16 @Dbacks prospect took a no-hitter into the 6th and struck out a career-high 10 for the @VisaliaRawhide. pic.twitter.com/XHhnGYDliP
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 9, 2022
Lin should enter the year in Triple-A featuring a secondary-focused approach with his fastball sitting in the low 90s. The hope here is a decent Toby if he were to start regularly, which may play well in front of the stellar Diamondbacks’ defense. There’s a chance it evolves into Holly territory if the secondaries hold their dominance from Double-A, which propelled a 28% strikeout rate in over 120 frames. Both breakers show promise while the southpaw’s changeup is sure to ruin the days of many right-handers.
307. Julian Aguiar (CIN, RHP)
Had a chance to go back and watch some of Julian Aguiar’s last start in Dayton and his first inning was as impressive as it gets.
Fastball popping at 97 mph with whiffs on his slider and a changeup with fading action. #Reds pic.twitter.com/NdJaL4bZGl
— OnBaseMachine (@RedsFan_Brandon) July 13, 2023
This great article on Aguiar gives a good look at him from 2022, which showcases his lower arm angle at low-to-mid 90s that allows his four-seamer to play up better than expected. The breakers look sharp and his changeup has legit fade to miss bats. I’m not sure if he’s profiling out to be an explosive arm that demands attention when he arrives, but if he can find 97 mph consistently (he was able to hit it at times), there could be something legit here with more command polish than traditional prospect arms.
308. Justin Armbruester (BAL, RHP)
No. 19 @Orioles prospect Justin Armbruester answered the call for the @NorfolkTides in the Triple-A National Championship:
5 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 3 BB | 4 K
Tune in to @MLBNetwork to follow the action live. pic.twitter.com/iyisWBRZ2T
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) October 1, 2023
His four-seamer has absurd vertical break, flirting with 19 inches of it, though it comes in at just 92 mph. Decent extension and VAA don’t harm it, though I wonder if the iVB is enough to force domination upstairs when none of the other aspects (velo, extension, VAA) amplify it. The one element not touched upon here is location, which is still a work in progress for Armbruester. His heater isn’t as precise as other prospect arms, while the slider, cutter, and curve have moments but aren’t as reliable as other starters. I’m curious how he’ll develop in Triple-A across 2024, though I’d be cautious to grab him if he gets a shot this year.
309. Freddy Tarnok (OAK, RHP)
To some scouts, Tarnok (along with Salinas) was the prize of the Sean Murphy deal. His four-seamer earns a TON of iVB, but sadly his high arm release hurts the pitch, creating a poor VAA, while his low extension and 95 mph velocity hold back the pitch. Meanwhile, there’s more work to be done with locating his slider and changeup down to create a proper BSB approach. That said, if Tarnok can find the right rhythm and locate appropriately, he could turn into a proper MLB starter…assuming he’s fully recovered from the shoulder strain that ended his 2023 season.
310. Jarlin Susana (WAS, RHP)
Jarlin Susana ends his clean first innings with a K… 103 MPH. pic.twitter.com/6oqF552Khb
— Nationals Source (@NationalsSource) August 24, 2022
He’s the pitching gem of the Nationals’ farm system. Acquired in the Soto deal, Susana hurls upper-90s fastballs with a devastating low-90s slider and is working on polishing a full arsenal. He’s still incredibly young at just 19 years old and likely another full season (at least) away from the majors, though I won’t rule out a rapid ascension given the dearth of options in the Nationals’ system.
311. Dylan Lesko (SDP, RHP)
Rather watch Dylan Lesko pitch in some random minor league game than the Super Bowl tbh pic.twitter.com/rprP8ynQo1
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) January 29, 2024
I initially didn’t include Lesko in the Padres breakdown since he’s only tossed three games in A+ ball, but who knows, he could fly up the system this year given his fantastic curve and changeup, even if he hasn’t looked quite as polished since returning from TJS. It’s a lovely delivery with mid-90s heat and that leggggit slowball and merged with a Padres crew with massive holes in their rotation, Lesko could get a shot despite many others getting a first crack in the majors. At the very least, I wouldn’t be surprised to Lesko in 2025.
312. Cole Henry (WAS, RHP)
Report from Prospects Live is a ~94 mph heater with potential to grow into a strong spin four-seamer that can be commanded with a massive hook. Given his young age, this could be interesting if Henry develops a proper third offering, possibly turning him into an Aaron Nola comp with his heater and curve action.
This is the best video I could find on Cole Henry
313. Cade Cavalli (WAS, RHP)
Cade Cavalli (Nationals #1 prospect / MLB #99 per @MLBPipeline)
89.3 mph changeup
89.5 mph changeup
98.3 mph fastball
3 straight whiffs for the K 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YvgcL8qbM2— David Adler (@_dadler) March 4, 2021
We saw him briefly in 2022 and he had TJS right before the start of the 2023 season. The velocity was above 95 mph (at times 97/98), though the heater’s shape did not make for an exciting arm. While his four-seamer improves across re-learning his mechanics, there’s a chance his big hook is a reliable #2 + he finds the nasty changeup that he flashed at times, though I wouldn’t hold my breath.
314. Chase Dollander (COL, RHP)
he ended up getting the loss but Tennessee RHP Chase Dollander looked spectacular yesterday vs. a strong South Carolina lineup. 13 K & 0 BB over 5.1 IP
he may be clearly behind Paul Skenes now but I'd still be excited to take him in the 6-12 range. the FB is special when it's on pic.twitter.com/h3tFoRPwBf
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) May 21, 2023
A major pick for the Rockies from Tennessee, Dollander was shut down in 2023 by the Rockies as they took things slow for the college star. He had a mid-90s fastball that overwhelmed batters with a fantastic slider, flashing plus with both his curve and changeup as well. The right-hander could quickly jump up the ranks in 2024, likely starting in Double-A and possibly joining the team by the final weeks if he cruises through the ranks. The Coors risk is too much to consider + we haven’t seen him pitch in professional ball yet.
315. Caleb Kilian (CHC, RHP)
Caleb Kilian retired all six batters he faced today 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DkqltAPljv
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) February 27, 2023
Sadly, I’m not interested in Caleb and I don’t think we’re going to see him get another major shot inside the rotation – there are too many better options to consider. Caleb doesn’t have an overpowering four-seamer, which means he needs to adapt in other ways: sinkers aplenty, low four-seamers for called strikes, or learning a cutter instead. Unlikely, of course. His most reliable breaker is a knuckle-curve, which is a solid pitch, but far from what he needs to make him a legit starter.
316. Adam Mazur (WAS, RHP)
Adam Mazur 6 IP, 2 ER pic.twitter.com/aPGaFNVU15
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) September 1, 2023
Mazur sat low-to-mid 90s on the heater in Double-A and with his over-the-top delivery, he’s able to get plenty of depth on his slider and curve to land his breakers in the zone and get whiffs on pitches in the dirt. With his skinny frame, Mazur could regain some of his lost velocity from 2022 if he fills out more, helping him maintain his low 5% walk rate as he works to fine-tune his pitches around the edges more often than simply “getting it over the plate.” He should turn a few heads when he gets the call and I’m curious whether his four-seamer plays well in the majors given what seems to be a higher release point than ideal.
317. Blade Tidwell (NYM, RHP)
Blake Tidwell tonight (5/4):
5.1IP 2H 3ER 3BB 10KGenerated 11 swing&misses over 82 pitches
Tidwell now has 26K's through 16.2IP#LGMpic.twitter.com/8SShp8ya1R
— Prospect Tilt (@Prospect_Tilt) May 5, 2023
He throws hard with a 95+ mph heater and pairs it with a filthy two-plane slider that instantly makes him a considerable arm for fantasy when he gets the call. The problem? High walk rates above 10% and lack of third pitch. He had just 34 frames in Double-A last season and hopefully he makes the jump to Triple-A with more steps forward to becoming a promising young arm.
318. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, RHP)
Simeon Woods Richardson, 3 consecutive Ks with 2 Bend the Knees. pic.twitter.com/KQAcQFxSKa
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2023
He doesn’t have the velocity of 2021, now settling in the low-90s, and what I saw of him in the majors doesn’t speak to the fantasy upside you’re looking for from a prospect. Richardson boasts solid command for a young arm, but when the best-case scenario is a Toby while you’re enduring the Shag Rug, you have to ask yourself why you’d take a shot at this. The Win and K ceilings are too low.
319. Clayton Beeter (NYY, RHP)
Clayton Beeter had one of the best starts of his career tonight in Hartford. Went 6 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 11 K – 99 pitches, 61 strikes, 17 whiffs. I saw Beeter a few weeks ago and the combo of mid-90s FF & tight mid-80s slider keeps hitters off balance #RepBX pic.twitter.com/q4Imz4EBmR
— Geoff Pontes (@GeoffPontesBA) June 7, 2023
Beeter was added to the 40-man and may get a few chances to start this year for the Yankees. The control is a major concern with 75 walks in 130 frames across Double-A and Triple-A last season, while his slider is the major force in his arsenal. Sadly, his 93/94 mph heater comes with horrible extension that makes him a major risk in the majors. There’s decent iVB on it given how much he gets on top of the ball, but sadly that lowers his VAA to mediocre levels, and it’s a pitch that will get him into trouble. I wouldn’t consider Beeter for fantasy squads as he seems prime for inefficiency and plenty of long balls along with maybe a strikeout per inning. It’s not worth it.
320. Sem Robberse (STL, RHP)
Sem Robberse’s sweeper is so damn good. He’s already picked up 6 whiffs on the pitch on 9 swings.
This sweeper in particular had 18” of sweep at 84.7 mph. pic.twitter.com/k1UwSNFVKc
— Kareem (@KareemSSN) August 12, 2023
He’s a young 21-year-old, though being added to the 40-man by the Cardinals suggests he could get a chance in 2023 and that should intrigue you. He features a great changeup and sweeper that helped him return a 16%+ SwStr rate in Triple-A last season, though his increase in walks as he made the jump does bring some concern. If that gets ironed out, the Cardinals may be inclined to give Sem the chance before Tekoah and Hence, though I really don’t like his four-seamer’s shape at just 92 mph. He’s going to have to rely a ton on command, and with that walk rate, it doesn’t quite seem like he’s ready to be fantasy-relevant. Far too risky.
321. Matt Canterino (MIN, RHP)
Finding his stride.
In his second straight hitless outing, No. 8 @Twins prospect Matt Canterino was perfect with three K's over three innings for the @WindSurgeICT. pic.twitter.com/eG3eEtzYEM
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) April 24, 2022
He’s suuuuuper over-the-top with a weird delivery, and we haven’t seen him since getting TJS at the end of 2022. However, the Twins don’t have all the depth in the land at SP and I could see Canterino coming up in the second half once he has established himself once again on the bump. Can’t say I love the heater a ton, but the changeup is legit and he pairs it with a solid power slider in the mid-80s that thrives with the arm-slot. I hope he’s looking just as good when we see him return this season in the minors, if not better now that the pain is gone.
322. Carlos F. Rodriguez (MIL, RHP)
🏆July Pitcher of the Month: Carlos Rodriguez🏆
In 4 July starts, Rodriguez surrendered only 2 runs while striking out 24 batters. Among Double-A pitchers on the season, Rodriguez ranks 2nd in K% (31%), 5th in Ks (118), and 8th in K-BB% (20%)#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/OLU8hKvqa3
— Brewers Player Development (@BrewersPD) August 9, 2023
Carlos had a great 2023 in Double-A and didn’t soar in his sole outing in Triple-A, but don’t let that introduction to a higher level deter you. His 30% strikeout rate in Double-A was catalyzed by a 15-16% SwStr rate as he sported a legit slider and changeup, though the fastball doesn’t seem like a pitch that can dominate at the big-league level. I’m curious what we get from him as he gets more experience this year against quality hitters, and with Gasser and Misiorowski getting all the attention, Rodriguez could get some frames if the Brewers want to play it safe with those two (moreso Miwiorowski).
323. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, RHP)
— Follow @AstrosFuture (@FutureStros) June 17, 2023
The Astros often find ways to squeeze value from otherwise overlooked arms and with the way Arrighetti is getting stretched out to five frames while maintaining solid velocity suggests that he could be a starter later this season with his four-pitch mix. Don’t expect this to be your next Urquidy or France impact play when they first arrived, though he may turn into a streamer with a decent Win chance if all things go right.
324. Forrest Whitley (HOU, RHP)
Remember him? With all his injuries and a 50 game drug suspension, Whitley returned from TJS last season and wasn’t looking pretty. Sub 10% SwStr rates with poor command, and it feels like Whitley is more primed for the pen than the deep five-pitch workhorse starter we envisioned when he was drafted. The pedigree is obviously there, which generally says “there is a ceiling in there somewhere, right?”, forcing us to at least pay attention to his 2024, and while he’s clearly doing everything he can to return there (see the video below), it seems like a nigh impossible journey back to the top after such a rough fall reminiscent of falling down Springfield Gorge.
Forrest Whitley on flat ground, no wind up, get in the lows 90s.
He's putting in the work. pic.twitter.com/Bu9BA0IQbe
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) January 30, 2024
325. Matt Sauer (KCR, RHP)
He was the second pick of the Rule-5 draft, suggesting Sauer could appear this season in the majors and forcing his way onto this list. Considering the rough options at the backend of the Kansas City rotation, it’s possible Sauer maneuvers his way to a starting spot at some point this year, though I question how good his heater is around 94/95 mph, and he’s most likely situated for a relief role with his fastball/slider approach. This isn’t the sleeper play we want, sadly.
Immaculate inning alert!
Matt Sauer strikes out the side on 9 pitches.
The @Yankees' No. 25 prospect totaled 9 K's over 6 1/3 innings for @SOMPatriots today. pic.twitter.com/NkbiyBy5k8
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 17, 2023
326. Noah Schultz (CHW, LHP)
Noah Schultz goes 4 scoreless on his Saturday start. He allows 3H and strikes out 3 on 34/50. #Ballers #WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/xPBCA1ccBN
— Ian Eskridge (@dailywhitesox) July 30, 2023
I overlooked Schultz initially given he made his pro debut in Single-A last season with just 27 innings in ten starts. However, the White Sox have suggested Schultz could debut sooner than expected and even though he’ll be only 20 years old until early August, Schultz’s absurd slider with solid command and a mid-90s heater suggests he could perform at the big league level this year, especially if it comes with development we normally expect from top prospects at his age. I have to believe he’ll be focusing on crafting a changeup to help take down RHB and create a true three-pitch mix, and without the “slinger” delivery we often see from southpaws with devastating sliders, it makes me encouraged he can maintain the sub-10% walk rates he held in his 27 frames. Don’t stash him in redraft leagues, but mark him as a “must add” if he gets the call to start this year.
327. Robby Snelling (SDP, LHP)
Robby Snelling has the best curveball and control in the @Padres system
Where does he rank on the updated Top 10 prospects?
(📽️: @MiLB)pic.twitter.com/5eIEPWz060
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) November 28, 2023
Snelling moved through A, A+, and up to AA ball in his first year in the minors as a 19-year-old, ending the year with four starts across 17.1 IP in Double-A, and I don’t think the Padres will be aggressive promoting him to the majors this year. There’s still a fair amount to figure out with his full arsenal, led by a very legit spiked-curve and a 95/96 mph heater that I worry has a bit too steep to turn into a whiff, and without a strong changeup to help against RHB, nor that bullying fastball, I think Snelling isn’t a prime promotion candidate for the Padres, who currently have a slew of other young arms to experiment with inside the rotation this year.
Tier 26 – The Nomads Of Baseball
These guys aren’t the main swing-men, nor are they to be trusted for any regularity if they happen to grab a start out of the blue. There’s a shot that one or two of them can make it happen, but that’s about it.
328. Ethan Small (SFG, LHP)
The Giants were willing to throw some cash to the Brewers to add Small to their squad in hopes they get some frames this year, possibly like they did with Strip/Manaea/Wood last season. He’s not Ethan LARGE after all. Nick, I need some actual meat here. Fine fine, he’s a four-seamer/changeup arm from the left side and a high release point that creates plenty of iVB but at a blegh 92 mph and terrible VAA, of course. He does get some whiffs based on his decent locations up and when it tunnels with the low changeup, you can get a glimpse of how it would work, kinda like a discount Eric Lauer. I’ll take a peek if he earns more playing time, though for now, he’s not worth a stash anywhere.
329. Ronel Blanco (HOU, RHP)
It’s possible the Astros don’t turn to Blanco to start again this year and instead add him to help out inside the pen. However, they did let Blanco start briefly last year and he was able to perform decently well. He would break the Huascar Rule with his strong slider and highly suspect fastball and it outlines a reliever moreso than a starter, but it’s Houston. They often find a way to make it work if they need it.
330. José Suarez (LAA, LHP)
He’s been the fill-in for the Angels since he’s been in the majors, and he has had moments as a productive streamer. Suarez’s success comes from his 21% SwStr changeup from the left side, paired with a slider that earns strikes but has failed to eclipse the 30% CSW mark since 2021. His four-seamer has decent break and VAA, but his low velocity and extension hold the pitch back, let alone his reluctance to feature the pitch upstairs in the first place. Given the lack of strong options for the Angels, Suarez will get more chances to start in the year ahead, hopefully flirting with a strikeout per inning across five frames at most. It’s not enough to draft, and barely enough for a desperate Sunday in-season.
331. Tommy Henry (ARI, LHP)
I’m sure we’ll see some spot starts from Henry across the season, though his low velocity mixed with middling secondaries speak to a desperate Sunday play, not fantasy relevance. His slider is an oddity, though. Featured 35% of the time against lefties (and rarely, if ever against right-handers), the pitch had elite strike, O-Swing, Zone, and ICR rates. If only the changeup and curve could step up against right-handers.
332. Slade Cecconi (ARI, RHP)
Slade seems like the guy the Diamondbacks would give the first shot when a spot opens up in the rotation. His 94/95 mph heater fails to miss bats as much as you’d want with 50% hiLoc, though his slider could become a major weapon if he adds a touch more polish to turn its mid-50s strike rate into 60-65%. Left-handers will be an issue without a proper curve or change to help, but the fastball/slider combo is enough of a foundation to hope something else clicks to make him serviceable for more than a small string of games.
333. Bryce Jarvis (ARI, RHP)
He had some opportunities with the Diamondbacks in 2023 and did little to impress with a 95 mph four-seamer that failed to miss bats and a slider that held a sub-50 % strike rate. There’s more promise in that breaker if he can flirt with the zone more often, though there’s little hope for him to become the next big thing in the desert.
334. Xzavion Curry (CLE, RHP)
The biggest positive for Curry? He’s a strike thrower. Each of his four-seamer, slider, and curve returned over a 63% strike rate in 2023, giving him a chance to get outs instead of drowning in a sea of inefficiency. Unfortunately, none of his offerings feature whiffability, nor excel at mitigating hard contact. He’ll likely fall into a long-relief role for the Guardians, with an occasional spot start when needed. If Cleveland leans on Curry to begin the year in the rotation, something must have gone wrong.
335. Josh Winckowski (BOS, RHP)
He started 14 games for the Red Sox in 2022 and made a proper move to the pen with his sole start coming as an opener. However, there is a chance the Red Sox look to Winckowski to step up for a few games if everything goes south in Beantown and with his affinity to jam RHB inside with sinkers, it’s not out of the question he can survive for five frames alongside his cutter and slider earning strikes. This is a last resort for the Red Sox, and I wouldn’t expect last year’s 22% strikeout to hold as a starter, so let’s not treat this as a hopeful outcome.
336. Hunter Gaddis (CLE, RHP)
None of his four pitches earned a 9% SwStr rate in 2023. His 13% strikeout rate made his 8.8 hit-per-nine carry the entire burden of his major league career and it’s not a wise chase for fantasy. His best asset is a slider that returned a 26% ICR across 32% usage, but hot dang you need him to give you so much more than that to be rostered in your leagues.
337. Daulton Jefferies (SFG, RHP)
The Giants signed Jefferies in another effort to figure out their rotation and filling it up with arms who have been able to go 5+ frames in the past but have dealt with some sort of issues as of late. It’s simple with Jeffries – he’s coming back from TJS – and who knows what he’ll look like when he gets his shot this spring. The old Daulton wasn’t anything to write home about and you can ignore this blurb for all but the deepest of leagues, but there could be a Jeffries here that’s capable of 5/6 frames by the summer.
338. Lyon Richardson (CIN, RHP)
The Reds may give Lyon some innings if they are lacking depth across the year, but you don’t want to exhaust time on this. His 96/97 mph fastball returned just 57% strikes and a horrid 8.4% SwStr due to his poor extension. We’re talking bottom of the ranks well under six feet (the best are those hinting seven feet), with a pedestrian slider. This isn’t the guy to chase.
339. Kyle Muller (OAK, LHP)
Muller is far behind where we want him to be. He had some opportunities to start last year and didn’t showcase enough improvement in his breakers or heater to demand a spot. He could get some loose chances here and there, but with the bevy of options at the Athletics’ disposal, I’d imagine he sticks to the pen.
340. Osvaldo Bido (OAK, RHP)
Acquired from the Pirates this off-season, Bido is likely to be a stop-gap rather than a major piece this year. Consider him a two or three-inning arm on a team that may be filled with them. I wonder if the Athletics are going to try to avoid a proper pen and instead of a boatload of these long relief arms they rotate through the year.
341. Cole Irvin (BAL, LHP)
If the Orioles are leaning heavily on Irvin this year, the levees have broken. Irvin may appear at times for spot starts as they hope to squeeze five frames from him, and he’ll move cutters, sinkers, four-seamers, and changeups around the zone, hoping to induce outs in play with the rare game of changeups missing enough bats to record a strikeout per inning. He’s a starter for a desperate Sunday, nothing more.
342. Bruce Zimmermann (BAL, LHP)
He may appear for a few games and Bruce shouldn’t be on your radar. The games that he does pitch may not even come with an extended look, with just two games of at least 40 pitches last season, peaking at 61 across three frames. The Orioles likely see Zim and his slider + changeup focus (just 24% fastballs between sinkers and four-seamers last year!) as a crafty long-reliever for those dire days and not a proper replacement for the rotation. It is a really nice slider, though, boasting magnificent results at a 72% strike rate, 27% SwStr rate, 44% CSW, and a 5.58 PLV despite using it 40% of the time. If only he had anything else in that arsenal.
343. Janson Junk (MIL, RHP)
If Junk is starting, it’s because the Brewers are dealing with an onslaught of injuries. There is a touch of promise in his four-seamer as it has great iVB with decent extension and VAA, but the locations aren’t great and its 92/93 mph velocity does few favors. The other offerings – a strike-focused slider and hard 79-83 mph curve – aren’t exceptional and you’re left with a middling arm at best who you don’t want to chase in fantasy. H*ck, even when he does start, how long are the Brewers actually going to let him go?
344. Jackson Rutledge (WAS, RHP)
He throws 95/96, but the four-seamer doesn’t have the pitch qualities we want – poor iVB, poor extension, poor VAA – which explains its low whiff rates. The slider has potential to miss bats, but without anything else in the tank, I’m not a huge believer that Rutledge will have a major impact in 2024.
345. Drew Rom (STL, LHP)
He is not the arm the Cardinals should be leaning on. He changes his arm angle across his three pitches – Sinkers are side-arm, while four-seamer and slider are more over the top – and it weirds me out a TON. There is more SwStr potential with the four-seamer if he can keep it at 93/94 mph, but there is just so much work to be done here for him to be a relevant fantasy starter, let alone a consistent arm for the Cardinals. Look elsewhere.
346. Matthew Liberatore (STL, LHP)
The Cardinals may be looking at Liberatore as a reliever for the year ahead. His fastball declined from the exciting moments of 94/95 mph as a starter, while the slider didn’t take form as hoped. There’s always a chance it clicks into place and if it does, it will be on the back of velocity and a wicked slider. I have my doubts that he’ll get the chances and take full advantage of them.
347. Mitch White (TOR, RHP)
There isn’t much to Mitch. His best asset is his slider, a pitch he’s comfortable throwing over 50% of the time to right-handers and it does its job well across the board – whiffs, strikes, mitigating hard contact. However, that’s it. That’s it? Yup. The slider doesn’t work well against left-handers, his four-seamer is not a reliable pitch to any batter, and the curve isn’t anything to write home about. White’s strength is sliders to right-handers there’s not much more in the tank. This ain’t it and I’m awfully curious what happens to the Blue Jays when there is disruption in their rotation, let alone what happens if two or three go down. Shudders. Seriously, Bowden Francis, Paolo Espino, Wes Parsons, and Trevor Richards are not viable options for the Jays.
348. Glenn Otto (SDP, RHP)
Otto has a fantastic sweeper and has a focus on nailing inside sinkers to RHBs, but if you’ve read enough of these you know what my thoughts are going to be. Wait, a sweeper sinker focus. That means…He can’t get lefties out. I WAS RIGHT THERE, NICK. Sweepers are worse than gyro sliders against off-handed batters, and sinkers from RHPs get crushed by LHBs unless it’s a surprise front hip, which is awfully rare and daring to trust. That said, Otto’s slider still performed well against left-handers, but I don’t buy it for 2024. Sidenote: I’m referring to 2022 instead of 2023 as we saw 130 IP then and just 10 IP last season. Until Otto develops his curve or changeup more, I’d avoid him. That four-seamer ain’t it.
349. Davis Daniel (LAA, RHP)
Daniel is a sweeper arm with a four-seamer that has decent attributes without excelling in any area, preventing him from getting over the hump to be relevant for your fantasy leagues. At 26 years old, he should get a fair number of opportunities for the Angels this year, but without growth on the 93/94 mph fastball (12% SwStr last year seems a bit higher than what I’d expect), nor a strong set of secondaries (52% strike rate sweeper?! 24% CSW curveball?!), Davis is destined to disappoint trusting managers.
350. Touki Toussaint (CWS, RHP)
His best pitch is a curveball that held a sub 60% strike rate and allowed 46% ICR to RHBs. Oh no. The splitter would sometimes appear with the curve to get some whiffs, but that is not the life you want to live. His fastballs are a muddy foundation that is sure to bring the walls crashing down often this year if he gets the chance, making Touki a rare strikeout stream for 6/7 punchouts when the two secondaries are locked in.
351. Jared Shuster (CWS, LHP)
I wish I had better things to say about Shuster. I was hyped for him in March last year as the possible #5 for Atlanta (great situation!) after seeing him nail inside fastballs + a slider underneath to RHBs consistently. That’s a skill that plays, and with Shuster dropping changeups away as a mix-up pitch, it made for a delightful arsenal. Unfortunately, that command was fleeting, leaving his poor four-seamer ripe for the swatting. It’s hard to jump back in on Shuster with that rough heater, especially if he doesn’t have a sinker to pair it inside to left-handers, nor a slider with exceptional movement. You don’t want to chase this command-focused arm.
352. Drew Smyly (CHC, LHP)
I saw moments where Smyly was able to sit 93/94 mph on his sinker upstairs and execute the BSB with his reliable hook under the zone. Those moments are behind us. Smyly’s “sinker” had a 16.8 iVB in 2022, which is absurd, to say the least, and he had precision keeping the pitch upstairs. Sadly, the iVB came down to 16″ in 2023, with less extension and velocity, dropping its SwStr from 12% to 8%. There’s yer problem. Batted balls were worse as well; its average went up 60 points as a result, and Smyly, a pitcher who we could barely trust in 2022, became a clear avoid once 2023 began. Turning 35 in June, it’s a hard sell to believe Smyly will regain the sinker he once had.
353. Joan Adon (WAS, RHP)
Yeaaaaaah. It’s difficult to discern Adon’s best pitch (changeup…?) as none of them excel to outline an arm you hope gets playing time in 2024. The fastball’s shape is poor, the slider is rough, the curve is unreliable…just don’t do this.
354. Daniel Lynch IV (KCR, LHP)
Lynch is really good at getting his four-seamer upstairs and has elite extension…but the rest of the pitch shape is terrible and, sadly, the product is a sub 10% SwStr rate. Womp womp. The changeup is the true money maker and if he’s able to locate it more consistently down (10th percentile loLoc%) while trusting it against left-handers (just 2% usage?!), Lynch may be able to get more production from his four-seamer. He’ll need to fix his slider as well, a pitch that looks more like a cutter and is poorly located to left-handers, while not looking tempting enough to right-handers. There’s a lot to fix here and I don’t trust the Kansas City crew to know how to fix it.
355. Cooper Criswell (BOS, RHP)
He came over from the Rays and his movement profile is ridiculous. Sinkers 19 inches one way, sliders 21 inches the other, making a 40 inch gap between the two. The cutter lands right in between the two, and the changeup has legit drop that makes you wonder how the h*ck he’s not missing more bats with his excellent extension…ohhhh he doesn’t hit 90 mph. Criswell isn’t a pristine command arm, sadly, with his sinker failing to jam RHBs, leading to a 50%+ ICR last year, while the slider returned just a 14% SwStr rate and the changeup failed to earn enough strikes despite 30% usage to LHBs. The movement is there, the command isn’t, and without the velocity, Criswell needs that extra polish to make it work.
356. Chad Kuhl (CWS, RHP)
His slider is still really good, but there’s just nothing else there. The days of 96+ mph sinkers are gone, with the pitch returning a 70%+ ICR against left-handers last year in the small sample. Nick, small sample! Don’t care, that’s dumb. He’s a Huascar Rule at best and if he makes the club to grab some innings, at least he has a long enough leash to go 5+ as the White Sox need all the innings they can get.
357. Jake Woodford (CWS, RHP)
Ah, the Amish Mustang. The Cardinals moved on from him and he has a sinker that aims to steal backdoor strikes to right-handers and a blegh slider that aims to be more in the zone than miss any bats. You’re trying to find some value in your drafts and this ain’t it. Sure, he’ll find a night or two where he survives five, or even six frames, but there’s no, what’s the word, electricity here.
358. Kolby Allard (PHI, LHP)
Atlanta elected to give Dralla a shot in 2023 where he tossed 12.1 frames, so of course the Phils brought him in on a one year deal for a cool mil. Nothing quite speaks Rotation Depth like Dralla’s 90/91 mph heater and array of middling cutters, curves, and rare changeups. Suitman whispers in my ear. He’s only 26-years-old?! Whoa. Welp, still don’t believe his command is enough to make this work, sorry Dralla.
359. Angel Zerpa (KCR, LHP)
You know, he has a solid slider and sinkers that can sometimes work when elevated. I have seen worse pitchers get their shots as a starter, but it doesn’t seem like the Royals truly want to move forward with Angel in the rotation. I think that’s the right call.
360. Brandon Bielak (HOU, RHP)
He somehow found himself starting thirteen games in 2023, where he fanned more than five just three times. One of those was a whopping nine batters, though it was against the Athletics and came on the back of the best changeup he had all year (its precision was sublime, returning 10/28 whiffs). This isn’t going to repeat itself, though if the Astros need to start bielak, he has a decent Win chance with his leash to toss 90 pitches in front of that offense and defense. He won five games in just 80 innings last year, after all.
361. Sixto Sánchez (MIA, RHP)
I legit miss early Sixto. His MLB debut is still inside my Top 5 SP debuts and we’ve since lost him for three seasons to shoulder problems. He gave us a look in September in Double-A, but instead of flirting with 100 mph, he was flirting with 90 mph, you know, the velocity of his changeup back in 2020. Obviously he wasn’t at full blast, but it’s far from encouraging. One last note – I looked up Sánchez’s four-seamer shape from 2020 out of curiosity and, well, it’s not great. None of the Triangle (the three parts of shape that matter, Extension, iVB, Adj. VAA I can’t believe it took me this long to call it that) are good, let alone average and it’s pretty clear this isn’t going to work unless he has that elite velocity. At least it explains the lack of explosive strikeout rates, in retrospect.
362. Cody Morris (NYY, RHP)
The Yankees acquired him as a super sneaky depth piece and I’m actually into it a little…? A Teres Major strain got in the way of 2023 after showcasing a legit cutter and changeup in 2022 when he had the rare moments of escaping damage off the 94/95 mph heater. It’s a long road ahead for him, but who knows. Injuries are weird.
363. Connor Overton (CIN, RHP)
There are moments with the change and slider, but the heater is 91 mph with horrific shape and those secondaries don’t make up for it in a terrible team context. This it not what you’re looking for out a guy who’ll randomly get starts this year when the Reds are desperate.
364. Beau Brieske (DET, RHP)
Nick, he’s not a starter. I know, his only “start” was as an opener last year, but he started 15 games in 2022 and we’ve seen weirder things happen. With Brieske’s effective changeup and phenomenal ability to jam RHB inside with sinkers, I kinda wish he was given a shot on another team. He really needs a better slider/cutter, though, or he’ll have to keep throwing the terrible four-seamer.
365. Jesse Scholtens (CHW, RHP)
His elite extension helps his 92/93 mph perform better than it should, but that’s about all I can get behind here. If the breakers can become legit strike pitchers, then sure, there’s a chance, but I don’t see this panning out well for Scholtens unless something major changes. I always love that major change at the end of a minor song. NOT NOW. THERE’S NO TIME.
366. Shawn Dubin (HOU, RHP)
Dubin got a start when Valdez was suddenly unavailable and he looked like every Astros starter we see these days – a dude who finds a way despite lacking the Nikolai electricity we want to tell everyone about, UNLIKE THAT CROOK EDISON. Anyway, the Astros could give Dubin another shot or two this year as he tried to make a four-pitch mix work but doesn’t have the sharpness yet to get you excited, even at 95 mph with the four-seamer. It’s okay at best.
Tier 27 – You Don’t Choose The Team Who Drafts You
Rockies starters who don’t even have volume. H’oh boy.
367. Noah Davis (COL, RHP)
He has a decent cutter and slider, though I have plenty of worry about the sinker, which he tosses away from both LHBs and RHBs. As y’all know, I rarely trust pitchers who rely on backdoor sinkers to same-handed batters, and I definitely don’t like sinkers away to opposite-handed batters. I don’t see enough in the cutter and slider to transform Davis into a legit starter, sadly, but given the chance to start, there will be rare games where the two secondaries take over for a number of strikeouts. It’s too scary for me.
368. Ty Blach (COL, LHP)
Oh hey, a Rockies pitcher who has a sinker that gets demolished and doesn’t have a whiff pitch over a 12% SwStr. Oh no. Yeah, that’s the life of Blach, who had a moment of seven strikeouts across seven frames of 1 ER ball when he was suddenly able to spot cutters and changeups beautifully while the Orioles were passive on the sinker over the plate. Everyone is a major leaguer for a reason. Don’t get enamored here.
369. Peter Lambert (COL, RHP)
It’s four-seamer/slider against righties, with neither pitch returning a 10% SwStr rate. Oh dear. Lefties get a changeup heavily mixed in and it earns some whiffs, but a 58% strike rate doesn’t do enough to save the destruction caused by left-handers getting their swings against Lambert’s fastball and breaker. This doesn’t sound good. Sure doesn’t. Stay away.
Tier 28 – The Last Prospects I’d Consider For 2024
And I know I missed a few that will make debuts, though some of them seem so dang pedestrian I hand waved them away. Again, I’m sorry I missed that other prospect pitcher. Please let me know who it was!
370. Landon Knack (WAS, RHP)
WELCOME TO LOS ANGELES LANDON KNACK pic.twitter.com/tiyO4499Uz
— RB (@rbhockey6) July 6, 2023
We may see some Knack this year with 10 games in Triple-A, and I wonder what impact it’ll be for fantasy. His 91 mph heater has 17 iVB, but middling VAA and extension and that vertical movement isn’t enough to outweigh the rest. However, injuries got in the way for Knack last year, and there are reports of higher velocity that could hold through a season of consistent innings. Meanwhile, he has a trio of secondaries in a curve, change, and slider that could all be effective at the big league level. Nothing that makes me leap out of my chair, though I can see Knack blossoming as he gets calibrated in Triple-A this season. Monitor the SwStr rates that fell from 15% to 10-11% moving from Double-A to Triple-A. If those start surging again, you’ll know he’s found it.
371. Corbin Martin (ARI, RHP)
3️⃣⬆️3️⃣⬇️ all via the strikeout for Corbin Martin to get tonight's game going 🔥@martin_corbin | #Aceball pic.twitter.com/kjFiyaCEDT
— Reno Aces (@Aces) June 22, 2022
He suffered a lat tear and missed all of the 2023 season. Martin was a major part of the Zack Greinke trade years ago and could vault to the majors quickly if he performs well in Triple-A early in the year. He came to the majors in 2022 with a four-pitch mix without nailing down a proper approach to merit a regular starting gig. It was a 94 mph heater that needed an extra tick or two to get over the hump, while his curve and slider were inconsistent despite showing flashes of promise. Martin leaned on a changeup a bit too often and failed to find a rhythm, returning horrid strike rates despite over 15% usage. There’s potential if he can hit the reset button in 2024, but it needs to come with obvious growth.
372. Mason Montgomery (TBR, LHP)
Mason Montgomery tossed 6 innings of 1 hit ball tonight for Durham! pic.twitter.com/L1gkyV4vbQ
— Tampa Bay Rays Minor League Updates (@raysfarmreport) September 14, 2023
I want to be more excited, but it’s heavy reliance on a 91/92 mph heater that plays up a bit more than the velocity, but not enough to justify its enormous usage. The changeup has promise and it’s possible a slider (and a curve?) can develop with his over-the-top delivery, but this ain’t it.
373. Cole Wilcox (TBR, RHP)
#Rays No. 9 prospect, Cole Wilcox, looked great last night throwing for 9 strikeouts! #ButterUp 🧈 pic.twitter.com/DH2raK9Z5O
— Montgomery Biscuits (@BiscuitBaseball) May 17, 2023
Looked rough in his first year back from TJS, but could get his mid-90s velocity back with more time on the bump. At just 24 years old, he’s got plenty of time to develop and rise up the system. Expect a fastball + slider approach, hoping to have a changeup in the tank when he eventually gets the call in late 2024 or early 2025.
374. Keider Montero (DET, RHP)
He’s kinda interesting…? Not a great Triple-A line with a near 5.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at a strikeout per inning, though he sports a 95 mph heater that excels when he’s able to spot it upstairs. It’s a low arm angle that helps the7 pitch perform upstairs, while the days when his slider can find the zone keep the approach alive. It’s most likely to be a headache of unreliability if he does get opportunities.
Keider Montero needed just four pitches to record his first Triple-A strikeout. pic.twitter.com/PbpFrDjXK3
— Tigers ML Report (@tigersMLreport) August 10, 2023
375. Darius Vines (ATL, RHP)
It’s a good changeup that stays around the zone, but it doesn’t come with the fade or drop that you’d expect in a pitcher’s #1 offering. The four-seamer’s 90 mph velocity (at best) needs more help in the secondaries, with a cutter to earn strikes that is fine, and a slider that doesn’t do a whole lot. Nah.
376. Taylor Dollard (SEA, RHP)
He tossed just eight frames after enduring a labrum injury that led to season-ending surgery and sadly, there isn’t much to attract fantasy managers. His low-90s fastball features few exciting attributes, his slider is standard and lacks electricity, while his big low-70s curveball is his most effective offering. Wait, I can’t think of a pitcher who only excels with a 72-mph curveball. Exactly. Throw in the fact Dollard shouldn’t arrive until the middle of the year at the earliest – remember, just eight frames last year and will need some time to find a rhythm – you can likely forget all about this blurb.
Taylor Dollard had to work hard against a hot hitting lineup in his last start before break. Final line: 4.1IP, 5H, 3R, 3BB, 5K, 99-56. pic.twitter.com/1gFjg85zsK
— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) July 17, 2022
377. Thaddeus Ward (WSN, RHP)
The dude has a ridiculous slider but that’s it. He seems more like a relief option than a proper starter without a strong heater or other secondaries on which to rely heavily.
378. Josh Stephan (TEX, RHP)
He made a splash in Double-A last season with 66 frames of 30%+ strikeouts and a near 5% walk rate. Thing is, it’s a heavy slider focus without a great fastball, and his changeup lacks the consistency to pull him from the lamented two-pitch pitcher moniker. He’ll need to do more with his heater (low 90s with sink and East/West focused) and find a strong third pitch to be of proper consideration for fantasy.
#Josh_Stephan KKKKK 🔥
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/2bVxB7mpSP— #🎗추장군🕯🕯💙 (@heleunandeseuk) May 14, 2023
379. Carson Palmquist (COL, LHP)
He’s a southpaw similar to Mr. Rock, but with a better, more debilitating slider, as he held a 34% strikeout rate in Double-A last year across 92.1 frames and a very funky delivery. However, it’s the only weapon for Palmquist, who doesn’t have the heater or changeup to become a reliable starter quite yet. I wonder if he can take another step and lean into the delivery to get more out of his arsenal, but it’s not there yet.
To all of my fellow college baseball nerds:
If you aren’t watching Carson Palmquist tonight vs. #13 UNC, you’re doing it wrong pic.twitter.com/Bdh0aoZr05
— Calico Joe (@CalicoJoeMLB) March 25, 2022
380. Joe Rock (COL, LHP)
He’s a low 90s velocity, 6’6″ lefty without the best stuff. A good breaker that sweeps across to mess up left-handers, but the fastball doesn’t dominate and the changeup isn’t far enough along to help against right-handers. His name is perfect for Colorado, but the stuff just isn’t there yet to be considered for fantasy given the whole “Coors is Undefeated” schtick.
#Rockies No. 15 prospect Joe Rock spun seven scoreless innings, yielding one hit and striking out seven, over two starts last week.@ANG_Recruiting #ServeYourWay pic.twitter.com/X9wsouEQMa
— Hartford Yard Goats (@GoYardGoats) May 30, 2023
381. Michael McGreevy (STL, RHP)
I’m not going to go deep into McGreevy as the reports I’ve seen outline a pitcher without proper fantasy relevance. He’s a Toby in his best world, with a sinker focus and without a proper whiff pitch. Maybe the slider or curve develop, or maybe his low-90s heater can gain some velocity, but he shouldn’t be on your radar at the moment.
McGreevy is getting into a McGroove.
In his Palm Beach Cardinals debut, Michael McGreevy strikes out 2⃣ in his first inning of work. #BeachBirds pic.twitter.com/T1ZRJ4Wkf6
— Palm Beach Cardinals (@GoPBCardinals) August 27, 2021
382. Cristian Mena (ARI, RHP)
His command was a bit wonky in 2023 and I worry that he doesn’t carry the velocity nor VAA you want for his extension and 17+ iVB to blossom properly. The slider gets a larger focus than his curve, though the latter grades far better, and I’m trying to squint to see an arm we can trust in our fantasy leagues. He’s certainly a “wait and see” kind of pitcher who could force his way into the rotation once other options have been depleted. I wouldn’t carry high expectations as nothing in the profile stuck out in a major way.
Cristian Mena got his 5 innings in Tuesday for the #Knights, in what will likely be his last start of the season. He allows 3R on 8H. He strikes out 4. #WhiteSox pic.twitter.com/LlnNsb8JUe
— Ian Eskridge (@dailywhitesox) September 20, 2023
383. Ky Bush (CHW, LHP)
Low 90s heater from the left side, with a solid slider and curve, and a changeup that flashes plus. Command has been an issue and without a plus heater or a neck-breaking weapon in his arsenal, Bush doesn’t seem destined to dominate your fantasy leagues when he gets the call. If the walk rate comes down and the changeup takes form or velocity bump comes his way, he could get more attention as he nears his debut.
Quero was the Angels #2 prospect.
Ky Bush was #3. The White Sox need left-handed starting pitching. Bush has swing and miss stuff, and a low walk rate. Big guy. 6 foot 6. pic.twitter.com/ke70QUIw9V— Chuck Garfien (@ChuckGarfien) July 27, 2023
384. Carson Seymour (SFG, RHP)
It’s a great slider from Seymour, but sitting 93/94 isn’t enough to warrant your attention quite yet. He’ll likely get his chance in Triple-A this year and if he’s showcasing a bit more in his arsenal to improve upon last year’s 11% SwStr rate, then we can begin to pay attention properly.
Carson Seymour fanned 5 over four innings of work vs the Brewers on Friday pic.twitter.com/8tDVtRwMwf
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) April 2, 2023
385. Blayne Enlow (MIN, RHP)
Enlow took a major step back in 2023, dropping velocity as his SwStr rate fell four points to just 9.3% in 45 frames of Triple-A. Yikes. When he’s cooking, his pair of breakers demolish batters, throwing effective strikes while limiting free passes easily. However, that loss of velocity changed everything, which made all of his stuff take a massive dip. Pay attention if the whiffs return, but in all likelihood, they aren’t coming back for a while.
Blayne Enlow continues his impressive start to the season in Wichita💪
Enlow goes 5.1 innings, strikes out 10 and walks 0, allowing just 1 run. He's now striking out 31.8% and walking just 6.8% so far this season🔥 pic.twitter.com/enFsNBQXYw
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) May 19, 2023
386. Maddux Bruns (LAD, LHP)
He’s young and very likely doesn’t see the bigs this year as he’ll turn 22 years old in June and has only pitched as high as A+ thus far. Walk rates are high as well and there’s still a ton of command wrinkles to iron out, though he’s an explosive arm. He’s a large southpaw with a strong heater in the mid-90s and a pair of stuff heavy breakers that suggest a legit arm if he can make the tweaks to find the zone. We’ll talk more in 2025.
Maddux Bruns put together a solid outing for Great Lakes:
4.0 IP
3 hits
1 run (unearned)
1 BB
4 Ks⬇️Pxp mentioned FBs at 95-97 pic.twitter.com/aLO7MIYLMD
— Josh Thomas (@jokeylocomotive) June 30, 2023
387. Blake Walston (ARI, LHP)
He’s a lefty sitting around 90 mph without distinct command nor the overwhelming breaker that demands success in the majors. He could get a shot among an Arizona team with few depth starters and I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow when the time comes.
Blake Walston was nearly unhittable for the @HillsboroHops.
The No. 4 @Dbacks prospect fanned a season-high 10 in five scoreless innings: https://t.co/BXk31FWGyq pic.twitter.com/oO0ZulYick
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 1, 2022
388. Dylan Dodd (ATL, LHP)
Sadly, my hype in early 2023 was unfounded. I thought he was a command southpaw who could go up-and-in with four-seamers and spot sliders underneath, and while that slider was generally effective, the four-seamer was not. It’s not wise to jump into this one.
Tier 29 – You Thought I Forgot About Them
Just a few last ones to end it to make sure you didn’t think I forgot about them (I refused to rank those three pitchers. You know the three.). it’s been a wild ride y’all and my sincere apologies for getting it out a little later than expected. If you’re reading this, then you’re a real one. Hope to see you inside the Discord and during the Playback livestreams.
389. Tejay Antone (CIN, RHP)
It was a sad time returning from TJS only to be limited by more elbow pain in 2023, but Antone hopes to return to regular playing time in 2024, initially as a long reliever. If Antone finds his way back to the starting job, his curve and slider are both exceptional breakers that can do it all – earn whiffs, find strikes, and mitigate hard contact – while his four-seamer & sinker are quite the opposite. It’s the typical Guardians-style SP lost in Ohio, and it’ll make him a deep strikeout arm if he gets the chance. He seems to be far back on the depth chart, though, and given his lack of health, a bullpen role to oversee his workload makes the most sense.
390. Sean Newcomb (OAK, LHP)
It was a summer surprise to see Newcomb get a start for the Athletics years after being a man of consideration for Atlanta well before the pandemic. Sadly, there isn’t anything new to excite us about the prospect of more frames for the southpaw, making him a reluctant backup option with little to no fantasy value.
391. James Kaprielian (FA, RHP)
He’s returning from a labrum tear in early 2023 that led to shoulder surgery in the middle of the year and it’s unclear how healthy he is now as he searches for a team to take a chance on him. If he comes out of the injury with his old slider, there’s hope for Kaprielian to find some innings somewhere like Tony Disco or Lorenzen. Sadly, there’s a high likelihood he simply doesn’t have it anymore.
392. Bryse Wilson (MIL, RHP)
Brewers. Please. You’ve collected oh so many interesting options to start this year. Please don’t make me come over there if you overlook them in favor of Bryse. I’m not sure even Bryse wants that at this point. Just let me have a role I can be decent at. Honestly, that’s what the best coaches do. Get their players in roles where they have purpose. Not everyone has to be The Guy. And hey! They did that last year with 53 games for Milwaukee, all out of the pen, leaning into his cutter more for success. There’s no way they renege on that, right?
393. Ben Lively (CLE, RHP)
I imagine the Guardians will go through many other options to replace a member of their start rotation before setting on Lively, though the season is long and full of terrors and there could be moments where Lively needs to go hyper-slider to find his way through five frames. Didn’t he do that once or twice and then completely lose it after? Yup. Those were the days…
394. Jonathan Heasley (BAL, RHP)
He moved around this off-season and…wait. I always get him and Jackson Kowar confused, who oddly enough, I didn’t put inside these rankings despite SP history. LET’S GO TO 500. Anyway, Heasley was acquired from the Royals and should be seen more as a desperate reliever piece, not as a possible spot start should the Orioles need it this year. But who knows, he did make 21 starts for the Royals in 2022 and I trust Baltimore’s pitching development far more. Maybe they can unlock something inside his 94/95 velocity and slider/curve/change secondaries. Naaaaaaaah.
395. Tyler Alexander (TBR, LHP)
The Tigers saw some stupid good starts at the oddest of times from T-Lex in 2022, and now the Rays have signed him as they needed someone to fill their Ryan Yarbrough void of getting value from southpaws with sub 90 mph velocity. It’s the law. You may see Alexander get some random bulk moments this year, but a proper starting gig seems outlandish.
396. Luis Cessa (KCR, RHP)
The Reds called upon Cessa to start games when all he’s ever had is a decent slider, and now the Royals signed him, likely hoping he can steal more than one inning in some games this year. It’s far from enough to warrant your attention in fantasy leagues, even if he actually gets the pearl to kick off a game.
397. Levi Stoudt (CIN, RHP)
Cincinnati gave this a try during desperate times in early 2023 and there’s not a whole lot here for us to latch onto. Well, the sweeper is a pretty offering and maybe it’s good enough to go 50% usage and find a way to navigate a start? Maybe?
398. Spenser Watkins (WSH, RHP)
There was a hot moment in 2022 when the Orioles looked to Watkins for starts and he was kinda decent for some of them…? With his move to the Nationals, it opens up a new path toward frames given the situation going on there. There should be no expectations of promise or excitement, though finding a guy who may actually start down here is an accomplishment on its own.
Tier 30 – The End Is Nigh
These two both deserved the last sport and I gave them their own finale tier.
399. Danny Duffy (TEX, LHP)
Wait, he’s still here? Sure, why not? He hasn’t pitched since 2021, but he has a non-roster invite to spring training with the Rangers and get this – HE’S ONLY 30 YEARS OLD. Nick, he’s 35 years old. Oh right. Well, maybe he’s figured something out in the last three years and this is the last spark of wonder. Or more than likely, we all forget that he had this final opportunity in, oh I don’t know, three hours.
400. Tyler Beede (CLE, RHP)
HE’S BACK YA’LL. AND HE’S READY FOR VENGEANCE. Nothing quite like 36/21 K/BB in 50 IP with a 3.99 ERA across 30 games in relief in the NPB to excite you, am I right? Hey. You made it. Let’s get you some rest. DON’T FORGET BEEDE! Uh huh. DON’T! I won’t. Good. I can sleep easily now.
We made it y’all. Thanks so much for following along and if you enjoyed it, please consider supporting the site by subscribing to PL+ or PL Pro, where you can enjoy the website Ad-Free and join our fantastic baseball community on Discord.
AGA,
-Nick
:chefs-kiss:
this was better than awesome! looking forward to such a fun season with you and the staff.
ty to all. let’s rock!!
you are INSANE for doing 400 SP… but thank you!
Fantastic stuff. But, you make no mention how your ranking have changed so much, without any pitches thrown.
I get busy for the day and finally check in with the world and Nick is out here wildin’
Holy cats
400 in depth profiles! What is this craziness? Now, in the future, will fully expect complete breakdowns on all relievers as well.