Top 300 Hitters for Fantasy Baseball 2025

THERE IS A NEW VERSION OF THESE RANKINGS! FIND IT HERE.

 

 

• As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, which is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: runs, RBI, home runs, batting average, and stolen bases.
• These are not best ball or draft and hold rankings. The 12-team redraft format with daily moves is the fundamental opposite of that. Pure volume plays are not valued as much here as in those no-moves formats.
• I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. My way of evaluating and ranking players has worked well for me, but it might not be an excellent fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your leaguemates’ player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could, it’d be weird in a bad way.
• This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
• I’m doing my best to use five starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but I’ll add them once those eligibilities are earned. This is just a maintenance thing, and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!

 

Ranking Philosophy

 

To keep things in the same ilk, here are a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:

 

• In 12-team formats, I don’t see much value in guys who only provide stolen bases. It’s an important category, especially in Roto, but in shallower formats, there are too many other (and better) ways to get the steals you need without sacrificing production in the other categories.
• No stat is an island, and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using tools such as our PLV Hitter Attributes (available for PL Pro members). I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators.
• Positional eligibility, specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.). Still, the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
• Similarly, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
• Regardless of true talent, anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 to 100 at-bats. It could even last over a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which will be valid until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends can give us hints.
• If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to contact me on Bluesky (@scottchu.pitcherlist.com), X (@ifthechufits), or in the comments below!

 

Read The Notes

 

• These rankings focus on what I generally project for a player, but these rankings are not projections. They include projections but also consider performance risk, injury risk, team context, ceiling, and floor.

 

I also host an AMA in the r/fantasybaseball subreddit every Friday (starting sometime in late March) starting around noon ET that lasts through the rest of the day and into the weekend, so feel free to join the fun and ask questions or make comments.

 

Tier 1

 

1. Shohei Ohtani (DH, LAD) — Fun fact: Shohei Ohtani is the only player to finish in the top-five fantasy hitters in both 2023 and 2024. Little needs to be said here. In daily leagues where Ohtani is one player, he is in a tier of his own. This ranking is just for hitter Ohtani, technically, where I can see some sort of argument for one of the other two guys in this tier if you’re somehow worried about additional injury risk or something because he’ll be throwing (I am not worried about this at all, for what it’s worth). Those in OBP leagues might have a slightly tougher decision, as the gap between Ohtani and Judge in that format was pretty slim in 2024, but I’d probably still go with Ohtani.

The one somewhat plausible impact of pitching would be a possible decrease in stolen bases, as you might argue that they’ll be more timid about giving the green light to Ohtani if they need him to be a starter. That said, they seemed happy to give the green light while he was recovering from an injury. Stealing over 50 bases again is a long shot, but 30 or more should be more than feasible. He stole 20 or more twice on an Angels team that was among the most conservative in baseball, with 26 in 2021 before the rule changes, while also tossing 130.1 innings that season.

 

2. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) — Judge is obviously a powerhouse, and I wouldn’t begrudge you if he was at the top of your personal rankings over Ohtani (even if I disagree). He had two rough slumps: one in April and another in the first half of September, and both were due to high groundball rates (and to a lesser extent, a lot of strikeouts) that were quickly corrected. Sure, they were ugly, but anyone who doubts Judge’s ability to correct course and be the best pure hitter in baseball for extended stretches is out of their mind.

Oh, and for what it’s worth, the loss of Soto might chop a handful of RBI off his totals, but after hitting 144 in 2024 he had plenty to spare without losing any real value. The Yankees offense should be quite good when all is said and done and Judge will be at the heart of it.

 

3. Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, KCR) — Witt followed up his top-10 finish in 2023 with a top-three finish in 2024 in his age-24 season, improving his walk rate while maintaining plus contact ability and increasing his power (especially with respect to turning singles extra-base hits, going from 69 XBH in 2023 to 88 in 2024).

So where does Witt go from here? I think the plate discipline and ratios are very repeatable, including the gains to walk rate, and he does major damage to all pitch types so the batted ball quality will likely remain superb. Sure, the BABIP spiked to .354 after consecutive seasons of .295, though that can be explained by him adding two ticks to his average exit velocity and nearly three percent to his barrel and hard-hit rates. Also, it’s important to remember that even without all those gains he was a top-seven hitter in 2023.

It’s insanely difficult to be a top-five hitter in back-to-back seasons, but Bobby Witt Jr. has all the tools to make it happen.

3/14 Update: Witt Jr. got hit in the forearm during a game, but appears to have avoided any broken bones. This should not impact your ranking of Witt Jr. in any way.

 

Tier 2

 

4. José Ramírez (3B, CLE) — To be honest, I had completely forgotten about J-Ram’s somewhat sluggish start, in part because he quickly corrected it by hitting 11 home runs in May. Despite posting the lowest season-long walk rate we’ve seen from him since 2016, J-Ram tied a career-high in home runs (39) while setting new career highs in runs (114) and stolen bases (41) and the second-best mark in RBI (118).

Ramírez’s pull-heavy profile with plenty of fly balls helps offset some of the fairly pedestrian numbers we see from Statcast, but it’s interesting to see that his production came with two big spikes: a home run spike in May (11) and a stolen base spike in August (14). Those were his best months for home runs and stolen bases in his long career (respectively) and expecting players to repeat bursts like that is something I tend to avoid.

Even if J-Ram doesn’t get to 80 combined home runs and steals, he should continue to be the safest bet at third base on the board. Since his breakout in 2017, Ramírez has finished as a top-three third baseman every year except for one (a somewhat injury-shortened 2019).

 

5. Juan Soto (OF, NYM) — What changes with Soto being a Met for the next million 15 years? Well, very little in terms of what we can expect from him. Soto will keep being an absolute monster at the dish with incredible plate discipline, 35 home run pop, a ton of counting stats, and a handful of steals.

While the Mets don’t have an Aaron Judge to pair with Soto behind him, they DO have Francisco Lindor ahead of him (a massive improvement over the Yankees’ rotation of leadoff guys), which should help Soto make up for some of the lost runs scored through RBI.

 

6. Elly De La Cruz (SS, CIN) — 2024 was nothing short of a massive success for Elly De La Cruz. Sure, he struck out over 30% of the time again, but the improvement to his walk and ground-ball rates made that 31.3% strikeout rate a lot easier to swallow. As long as ELDC is not the worst decision-maker in the league, he has a chance to be an elite fantasy producer due to his power and speed.

Points leaguers likely need to move De La Cruz down a tier as most of those leagues don’t value steals at nearly the level category leagues do, but everyone else should be very excited about what another offseason to learn and mature can do for this dynamic athlete. As the ranking suggests, I expect a step forward to be more likely than a step backward.

3/14 Update: Elly is killing it this Spring and you should be totally on board. This might be the most explosive athlete in the game.

 

7. Kyle Tucker (OF, CHC) — Tucker was on absolute fire before going down with what seemed like a never-ending leg injury. He had 19 home runs and 10 steals in 60 games (including the game where he went down with the injury) with more walks than strikeouts and a hefty 176 wRC+. While he took days off following his return in September, he still looked like an absolute stud, slashing .365/.453/.587 with four home runs in his last 18 games.

While an 18-game sample wouldn’t normally command much attention, this one is valuable because it helps us feel a lot more comfortable with Tucker’s overall health and the potential repeatability of the surge we saw last season. I don’t normally project career highs for players with a track record, but the incredibly high floor plus the gains in plate discipline and fly ball rate suggest the Kyle Tucker we got a glimpse of in 2024 is coming back in 2025.

As for the move to Wrigley, I suppose we could see a couple of balls that would have left Minute Maid turn into doubles, but the impact of the park change isn’t enough to alter how I view his floor or upside in 2025. The team context is more important (and more interesting) as the Cubs and Astros scored almost the same number of runs in 2024, albeit with very different strategies. The Cubs were (and likely will be) MUCH more aggressive on the basepaths than Houston, and Tucker seems likely to slot into the two-hole of the lineup. I think the stolen base floor is a little higher in Chicago than it was in Houston, and the counting stats should be at least as good as they were in the past and possibly even better, depending on what other moves the Cubs make.

 

8. Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) — Make it four consecutive seasons with over 30 home runs and 85 RBI. The counting stats were a bit low for Yordan, though that’s largely due to the baffling lack of offense to start the year in 2024 (this dude had 30 hits and just four RBI in May). If we knew he’d play 150 games, I think he’d be at least three spots higher, if not more. He’s just that good when he’s on the field.

Fun fact: Yordan’s worst 50-game wRC+ of his career is 114, meaning at his absolute worst, he’s still 14% better than the MLB average.

 

9. Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL) — Gunnar’s legendary first half was followed by a second half that was merely good, mostly from bouts of inconsistency down the stretch evidenced by very up-and-down performances, particularly in the power department. There was nothing fraudulent about Gunnar’s first three months where he hit 26 total home runs that I can see, and while I don’t expect 26 home runs over a three-month period, I think a more balanced performance is more than reasonable to expect.

I think 30-35 home runs with another strong season of counting stats and ratios is very much on the table. The stolen bases were erratic over the year, but 15-18 seems about right for someone with his athleticism being locked in at the top of a young roster with upside.

3/14 Update: Henderson strained a muscle in his ribcage a little over two weeks ago and is finally starting to get back into baseball activites. As long as there is no set back, he should be active on Opening Day. Henderson may miss a few games early on, but not enough to move the needle for me on draft day. To tell the truth, I was already a little lower on Henderson due to how high I am on Yordan and Tucker, so there was nowhere for him to move anyway.

 

10. Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SDP) — Performance-wise, there are no doubts about Tatis. While we still didn’t see the same bombastic performance we saw in 2021, Tatis hit the ball extremely hard, and in his 102 healthy games, he showed 30-35 home run power and the speed to steal 15-20 bags given the opportunity. He also maintained a strong 21.9% strikeout rate on his way to a .276 batting average.

Of course, injuries are a significant concern here. Tatis missed 60 games in 2024 and has been injured for at least 20 games in each of the last four seasons (technically, some of that missed time comes from an 80-game suspension from 2022-2023, but he was also recovering from a wrist injury at the time and would have missed significant time without the suspension). The one bright spot on the injury front is that the time he missed in 2024 did not seem to impact his performance. As you can see in the chart below, Tatis returned just as strong as he was before the injury in every respect.

The 162-game upside for Tatis is that of a top-five fantasy hitter who gives you juice in all five categories. Notably, when he missed over 20 games in 2023, he still finished as a top-35 hitter, and his ridiculous 2021 led to him finishing as the sixth-best hitter despite missing over 30 games. I am all for going after the upside in 12-team formats, especially if he slips to the start of the second round in your draft. If you have to roster five outfielders, I could see Tatis ranked as high as tenth (which is where I had him originally until I talked myself into two of the three top first basemen).

 

11. Mookie Betts (2B/SS/OF, LAD) — Mookie missed most of the summer after being hit on the hand with a 98-mph fastball, but when healthy, he posted a 141 wRC+. The power we saw in 2022 and 2023 never quite kicked in, though he was still on roughly a 25-home run pace. It’s worth noting that Mookie’s power often comes in extreme spikes followed by extended periods of being above-average (see below). With time and health, I think at least one or two of those extreme spikes would materialize and get him to 30+ home runs with those huge counting stat totals and fantastic ratios. Regardless, he is the top dog at second base by a country mile.

 

12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B/3B, TOR) — I admit I thought Vlad Jr. was on the decline after watching that rolling chart point down through 2022 and 2023 and into the start of 2024, but Vladito turned it on in the second half and showed us a spike in power we hadn’t seen since his breakout in 2021. Guerrero always kept the bat-to-ball ability, but grounders were crushing his upside until he found a way to break their spell in the summer. A Vlad who puts the ball in the air (as in line drives plus fly balls) more than 60% of the time is an extremely dangerous hitter. Heck, possibly even a top-five hitter. The floor is quite high regardless, really, but that second half showed us that the 40-home run power in his 2021 campaign may not have been a fluke after all.

 

Tier 3

 

13. Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) — In Freeman’s first 100 games of 2024, he was on pace for about 26 home runs and over 200 combined runs and RBI. An injury and a bit of a slump later, and we wound up seeing Freeman’s worst combined run and RBI totals since 2017, with just 22 home runs. The home run power has fluctuated throughout his career, with the range of outcomes being somewhere between 21 and 31 over the last four seasons, but the 81 runs and 89 RBI make very little sense considering his .282/.378/.476 in the heart of one of the most explosive offenses in baseball.

I think we just have to acknowledge that Freeman is more of a mid-20s home run guy but there is no way we see such low counting stat totals again if he stays healthy. I am expecting double-digit steals and well over 200 combined runs and RBI to go along with exceptional ratios and one of the highest floors in the game.

Fun fact: 2024 was the first time Freeman missed more than four games in a season since 2017. He’s only missed more than 15 games in a season twice since his first full season in the majors back in 2011 (2015 and 2017).

 

14. Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI) — It was a tale of two halves for Carroll, who was cut by more than a few 12-team managers due to the fact he hit just two home runs with a .213/.305/.315 line and a 76 wRC+. Those who were able to weather the storm received rich dividends, though, as Carroll notched 37 extra-base hits over his final 76 games of the season from July 1 onward, including 20 home runs and a 139 wRC+.

It’s easy to speculate that the shoulder injury that sapped his power in the latter part of 2023 continued to trouble him in 2024. I don’t normally give too much attention to these theories since we have very little direct feedback from players and teams about this sort of thing, but it is worth noting in the chart below that the steep drop that happens in 2023 begins at the exact same time as the injury.

Regardless of the cause, it was fantastic to see Carroll remind us why he was the top prospect in baseball just two years ago and believe he can threaten 30 home runs or more in a full, healthy season with over 30 home runs and much better ratios than we saw last season. There’s risk for sure, as the injury may not actually explain the slump to the degree I’ve assumed and the D-Backs roster looks a LOT weaker than it did at the end of the season (especially if Eugenio Suárez can’t find that late-season magic), but I’m already pretty close to talking myself into moving him into Tier 2.

 

15. Julio Rodríguez (OF, SEA) — If you rostered J-Rod in 2024, you know just how bumpy the ride was. Picked in the first few picks of the first round, J-Rod was a rather pedestrian contributor to fantasy lineups, especially with respect to power, as he was slugging just .327 at the end of June. Things started to turn around in July before he went down for three weeks with an injury, but upon his return, he looked a lot more like the Julio Rodríguez we expected back in the spring. He slashed .295/.345/.486 over his final 200 plate appearances with nine home runs and six stolen bases, which over a full season would look something like 34 home runs and 22 steals.

Those extrapolated numbers are still a little short of what we think Julio can be, that being a guy who makes a run at 40 home runs and 40 steals with a boatload of counting stats and strong ratios. Heading into his age-24 season, there’s still plenty of time for J-Rod to become that kind of player on a consistent basis, but that lack of consistency pushes him down a bit, especially if you’ve already taken a gamble or two early on.

 

16. Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF, ATL) — The consensus top overall pick in 2024 drafts certainly didn’t live up to the extremely lofty expectations we had after his phenomenal 2023. I don’t really need to say much about Acuña’s upside, as the thing that will truly set his value on draft day is the floor.

At this moment, it does not sound like Acuña will be ready for Opening Day and will miss at least the first month of the season, if not slightly longer. For most players, that kind of timeline would push them well outside the top 20, but in the standard format used for these rankings (12 teams, three outfielders, two utility) the replacement level at outfield is incredibly high. That, combined with the extreme talent of Acuña makes it tough to push him too far down.

If you started your draft with a couple of pitchers, players who already carried injury or performance risk, or a player who already loads up the stolen base column, you might consider pushing Acuña down your list a little bit. Ditto if you’re in a deeper format or don’t have an IL spot. However, if you’re in a position to take on some risk, there are few gambles that can pay off as handsomely as a healthy, locked-in Acuña as he has the talent to be a top-five overall fantasy contributor even with the missed time.

3/14 Update: All signs still point to a return in the first half of May.

 

17. Austin Riley (3B, ATL) — Like several of his teammates, Riley was slow out of the gate with a putrid .618 OPS and just three home runs through 53 games. Then suddenly, without warning, he hit a home run in three straight games, kicking off a 57-game stretch where he absolutely mashed: 16 home runs, a .942 OPS, and an average exit velocity of 95.6 mph. Unfortunately, a 97-mph sinker smacked Riley on the wrist, ending his season.

Riley has consistently been a hitter with plus decision-making skills and plus-plus power, and his 2024 was an odd departure from that. In his early-season struggles, the decision-making was there, but the power was gone. When he got hot, Riley showed the power we expected but ditched the decision-making (see the chart below).

I’m not overly concerned about the dip in decision quality, mostly because the expected results were there and our model is agnostic to an individual player’s ability and how he’s being attacked, but it was interesting to see the change in approach. If nothing else, it tells me that Riley doesn’t necessarily need to always make great decisions to deliver results due to his strength. I’m expecting a return to 35 or more home runs, though the ride might be a bit rockier than we thought it could be last offseason.

 

18. Rafael Devers (3B, BOS) — Devers is about as consistent as they come. From 2021 through 2024, he’s averaged 31.5 home runs, 90.5 runs scored, 96 RBI, and an .873 OPS per season and has logged at least 600 plate appearances in five straight full seasons. Devers was on track to possibly set new career highs in multiple categories as he had 25 home runs and 144 combined runs and RBI through his first 100 games, putting him on pace for 40 home runs and 233 combined runs and RBI with a .304 average and .381 OBP, but he faded hard down the stretch, hitting just .189/.282/.294 with three measly home runs over the remainder of the season.

We learned in late September that Devers had been battling soreness in both shoulders which ultimately got him shut down, and that the issues were exacerbated in late July on a diving play in Colorado. This lines up pretty well with the drop-off in production, and thankfully Devers has been given ample time to rest and recover. A healthy Devers should, at the very least, get back to those averages I referenced above, and what we saw for the first half of the season suggests that the ceiling may be even higher.

3/14 Update: Devers looks healthy this spring, and early drama about his defensive position seems to have been resolved by recent comments.

 

19. Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL) — Any rookie who puts up 21 home runs and 22 steals is going to generate excitement, but Chourio generates even more than usual due to how strong he was after a bit of a rocky start. Chourio was hitting just .231/.277/.357 through his first 70 games, though the seven home runs and eight steals were enough to let some managers continue holding for a breakout.

Those who could afford to be patient were paid off handsomely. An uptick in production was preceded by a noticeable drop in strikeout rate, which suggested he was really finding his footing, and sure enough, over his final 78 games, Chourio smashed a line of .306/362/.541 with 14 home runs and 14 steals, which over a full season would be a 30-30 pace.

I realize I’m extrapolating quite a bit in these early ranks, and I don’t necessarily condone that sort of behavior. That being said, Chourio’s pedigree and tools suggested that a 30-30 season was something actually achievable, so to see him carry that kind of line over half of a season is extremely promising. Chourio won’t turn 21 until we’re well into spring training, so to say there’s a risk of volatility is an understatement; however, there’s a true five-category contributor here who could very well be safely inside the top-20 hitters within a month of the season starting.

In a format that uses five outfielders, I would have Chourio at 14 or 15 (leap-frogging Devers, Riley, and Acuña; however, these rankings are for a three-outfield format, and in those scenarios I prefer to grab one of these two third basemen or shoot for the moon on Acuña (though in reality you can probably grab Chourio first and get Acuña on the way back).

 

20. Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM) — Yet another fantastic season for Lindor. He kept the gains in fly ball rate from 2023 while cutting down on the pop-ups and posting a career-high barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He hit home runs and stole bases consistently all season long, and from June through the end of the season he never posted a negative weekly fantasy value (per FanGraphs Player Rater).  The addition of Soto will certainly help his runs scored totals, though it may marginally reduce his stolen bases. Regardless, this is an extremely high-floor player who is a pretty good bet to get another season of 60 combined home runs and stolen bases (or at least close to it).

 

Tier 4

 

21. Brent Rooker (OF, ATH) — I was not silent regarding my skepticism towards Rooker coming into 2024. Rooker’s 30 home runs in 2023 was extremely streaky. It was largely fueled by two extremely hot stretches at the beginning and the end of the season, with a lot of red flags over in the summer plus a ton of strikeouts. The Rooker we saw in 2024, though, was incredibly consistent, posting a wRC+ over 100 in each month of the season and a wRC+ over 140 in four of the six months.

Rooker’s strikeout rate did spike a few times earlier in the season, but from July 1 to the end of the season, he struck out in just 23.6% of his plate appearances, and from that point on, he never had a 20-game strikeout rate above 30%. That’s quite remarkable, as he spent almost all of 2023 with a 20-game rolling strikeout rate above 30%, with many stretches over 40%.

While stronger decision-making certainly played a role in the improvement, our PLV metrics suggest the biggest change was to his contact ability, going from a player in the bottom 10% of the league in 2023 to a player with almost average contact ability. If Rooker continues to make contact at a mostly average clip, he should continue to be a very special hitter for the A’s.

Also, for those who haven’t heard, the move to Sacramento barely improves the offensive environment. Sacramento is a fairly pitcher-friendly park, though I believe the foul territory should be much friendlier (a notable thing for a pull hitter like Rooker).

 

22. William Contreras (C, MIL) — Back-to-back seasons as fantasy’s top backstop puts Contreras in a tier of his own at the position. The high ground-ball rate and low pull rate on fly balls keep the home run numbers a little lower than you’d expect for a guy with his power, but a total between 20-25 is more or less a lock to go with his .280 or better batting average and a boatload of counting stats that come from hitting in the heart of the order for the Brewers.

As with most power hitters, Contreras would benefit greatly from getting the ball in the air a bit more. His summer slump was mostly due to a huge spike in grounders (see below), and if he can avoid the extended stretches of 60% ground balls, we could see another step forward.

Ultimately, Contreras is a solid early pick due to his high volume and premier role, along with his impressive skills, when most catchers are lucky to have even one of those attributes.

 

 

23. Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) — Marte had the best season of his career in 2024 and set career highs in home runs, RBI, wRC+, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and a bunch of other stuff. He did this despite missing 26 games (mostly due to a sprained ankle in late August) and looked like a completely different hitter than the guy we saw in 2023 (who had looked completely different than the guy we saw in 2020-22).

The power surge appears to be tied to Marte pulling the ball a LOT more than in prior seasons (51.8% in 2024, never higher than 44.4% in any other season), which helped convert doubles and triples into home runs. It can be difficult to bring that kind of change into future seasons due to the fickle nature of batted ball direction in general, though it’s not necessarily random (see: Isaac Paredes). While I do think he can keep pulling the ball a bit more in general, I’m skeptical about pulling the ball quite this often as a lot of that came very suddenly and over a relatively short period of time (see chart below).

Even if the power regresses a bit (which I do expect to some degree), Marte’s bat-to-ball skills should keep him in the top 30-40 hitters thanks to strong ratios, plenty of counting stats, and at least 25-27 home runs. He’s particularly valuable in points leagues thanks to his sub-20% strikeout rate, double-digit walk rate, and hitting second behind Corbin Carroll every day.

 

24. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B/OF, NYY) — The move from Miami to the Bronx is about as good as it gets for a hitter both in terms of hitting environment and general enthusiasm for playing baseball. Jazz was useful in fantasy in Miami, but he was phenomenal as a Yankee. His hard-hit rate as a Yankee was 11.4 points higher than it had been as a Marlin, and he put up better numbers in virtually every relevant category after the move (both offensively and defensively).

With two mostly healthy seasons under his belt and a new lease on his baseball life, Jazz could very well push for 30 home runs and 30 steals with strong counting stats and ratios that won’t hurt you. The injury risk is still quite real, of course, and we still saw spikes in his strikeout rate and dips in performance after the trade, but there’s plenty to be excited about here.

 

25. Jarren Duran (OF, BOS) — Duran finished as a top-20 hitter in 2024, following up on his fantastic 102-game stretch in 2023. Duran is an excellent contributor in ratios and stolen bases and should continue to be one in 2025. The 21 home runs were really the biggest surprise for Duran, as he only had 13 in his 193 games before the 2024 season and had never been tabbed as having much more than mid-teens power as a prospect.

Most of Duran’s home run pop came in the summer, with seven home runs in June and seven more in August. He only had seven home runs in the other four months combined. I’m not saying the 21 home runs for Duran was a fluke, but I think it represents the top end of his power. I also worry that the 111 runs will be difficult to repeat despite being locked in as a leadoff guy. The Red Sox’s current lineup is relying a lot on players who have yet to show sustained success outside of Rafael Devers, and I struggle to see how this offense can be a top-10 run-scoring team like they were in 2024 (and to be honest, I’m not sure how they pulled it off last year, either).

That said, Duran should still hit mid-to-upper-teens home runs and get about 100 runs scored. It’s hard to call a player a safe bet when they have only played a single full season in the majors, but the skill set is not terribly volatile, and Duran should be at least close to what he was last season.

 

26. Bryce Harper (1B, PHI) — We finally got more than 140 games from Bryce Harper again, and since 2018, playing at least 140 games means at least 30 home runs. Like Freeman, I am unsure why or how the counting stats ended up so low for Harper, who hit a ton and got on base with extreme regularity for a very good offense. Starting in July, Harper’s run and RBI totals stayed shockingly low even though the Phillies were a top-10 offense. July can be explained by injury and a slump, but his counting stats remain suppressed in August and September despite a 143 wRC+. From August 15 to September 5, Harper had 19 hits and just three RBI while batting third.

Again, like Freeman, I suspect the low counting stats were more a product of bad luck than any kind of degradation of skill or supporting cast, so as long as Harper stays healthy he should get to 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. Of the three first basemen in this tier, he’s definitely the most likely to hit 35 home runs given a full season; however, he’s also definitely the most likely to miss more than 20 games, so I’ve ranked him at the bottom of this little cluster. If you’re less risk-averse or you’re in a shallow league where the replacement level at first base is quite high, I could see you moving him up one or two spots.

 

27. Marcell Ozuna (DH, ATL) — Ozuna did a full repeat of his shocking 2023 season in 2024 and there’s little reason to doubt he can do something similar in 2025. Technically, Ozuna’s power faded a bit down the stretch compared to his early season fireworks display, but as the chart below shows, the “fade” merely brought him down to the 80th percentile. If that’s what a slump looks like, then sign me up.

 

 

28. Manny Machado (3B, SDP) — Don’t panic when Machado has an extended slump, as he’s had one in each of the last five full seasons. They look ugly and get pundits everywhere asking, “What’s wrong with Machado?” The answer, generally, is “nothing he can’t fix.” In both 2023 and 2024, Machado looked incredibly pedestrian for a full two months to start the season before turning it on and getting to his numbers (roughly 30 home runs and 90-100 RBI). Don’t mistake year-to-year consistency with month-to-month consistency. Machado is absolutely the former but not so much the latter. The takeaway, if nothing else, is that Machado is likely to keep being a rock at the hot corner for fantasy teams, even if, at times, it looks like he won’t be. Just keep the faith and you’ll be rewarded.

 

29. Matt Olson (1B, ATL) — Olson’s slow start in 2024 left many asking whether the 54 home runs in 2023 were a fluke. Maybe they were, and that’s OK because down the stretch Olson showed us that he can absolutely still be the 35 home run masher we’ve seen multiple times in his career. Olson’s struggles were difficult to put my thumb on as there wasn’t some glaring flaw in his stats (apart from the production itself) to explain what was going on.

When I see a player with an established track record inexplicably underperform and then correct course and go back to being what I expected, I’m likely to disregard the struggles (or at the very least, not think too hard about them). It is a bit lazy, admittedly, but focusing too much on the small set of bad performances isn’t likely to tell me a whole lot. Olson has 1,061 games under his belt, and the vast majority of them show us a guy with plus-plus power who will hit somewhere around .250. As I mentioned before, 35 home runs feel like the right benchmark, though there’s an upside for 40+ if things break the way they did in 2023.

 

30. Pete Alonso (1B, NYM) — I firmly believe that Alonso’s 2024 home run and counting stat totals are a healthy floor for the Polar Bear regardless of where he ends up in 2025. While the batting average is never going to help you, .240 is a lot more reasonable than the bad-luck-driven .217 from 2023, and despite hitting fewer home runs than he had in the four full seasons prior, he had the second-best hard-hit rate of his career.

Alonso is a premier power asset who has been remarkably durable throughout his career. He’s a safe play at a position where top talent dries up quickly, and he’s especially valuable to those who find themselves a bit behind on power or who have taken some health gambles early on.

 

31. Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI) — Schwarber is still Schwarber. 2024 was another season of solid decision-making, excellent power, and poor contact. He will strike out nearly 30% of the time due to his contact issues, but he’ll also walk about 15% of the time and hit around 40 home runs with roughly 100 runs and 100 RBI.

Schwarber should be considered a top 15-20 hitter in OBP formats, but in standard leagues, he has two things holding him back: his low batting average and extreme streakiness. Both result from his contact ability combined with his all-or-nothing approach, which focuses on pulling the ball and getting it in the air (both of which are good things, to be clear). The extremes in his profile lead to a rolling chart that looks like an EKG.

For roto players, this variance is fine because as long as you stick with it, the highs will balance out the lows. In head-to-head formats, it gets a little trickier as Schwarber will oscillate between a guy who is dragging your whole team for three matchups and then goes and goes and wins your next matchup almost entirely by himself. Some players don’t want this kind of headache in a weekly league, but for those who can handle the ups and downs, you’ll get an elite power source.

 

 

Tier 5

 

32. Corey Seager (SS, TEX) — When healthy, Corey Seager is capable of being one of baseball’s best hitters. He has at least 30 home runs in each of the last three seasons, and that’s despite missing around 40 games in both 2023 and 2024. I’m a huge fan of scooping him up in leagues where you already have a shortstop-eligible player from the first two rounds, as it allows you to take a chance on Seager’s top-20 hitter upside without worrying too much about how you’re going to replace him.

Notably, Seager is the last shortstop on this list with a realistic shot at 30 or more home runs, and very few middle infielders after the top 60 are even likely to get much more than 20. The injury risk is as real as it gets, but it’s worth the risk for this type of talent.

 

33. Trea Turner (SS, PHI) — Turner’s 2024 was much more even than his 2023, which makes it much easier to determine a draft day value for him. The only real question I have about Turner is about stolen bases. Turner swiped just 19 bases in 2024, with nine coming in April. We do know why this happened, as he is on the record about it being a conscious decision to protect his legs after missing most of May and June with a hamstring injury.

Assuming Turner’s legs are good to go, he should go back to stealing 30 bases or so with 25 home runs and a batting average approaching .300. Health has been a concern throughout his career, and he’s not getting younger, but Turner is still a fairly safe fantasy pick heading into his third season in Philly.

 

34. Anthony Santander (OF, TOR) — When you’re as strong as Santander, more fly balls will generally be a good thing. Santander kept his fly ball rate above 50% for the majority of the season, and that led the way to his 44 home runs. I don’t expect Santander to get quite that many home runs again in 2025, but 35 seems quite reasonable to go with what will likely be a boatload of counting stats wherever he ends up. Because Santander puts a lot of balls in play, hits from both sides, and plays in a lot of games, his floor is higher than some other power-hitting outfielders with similar profiles.

Santander ultimately signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and looks like he’ll bat right after Vlad Jr., which is a solid situation to be in for the slugger. The lineup he’s coming into isn’t as deep or exciting as the one he left, but Santander should be in a position to get into the triple digits in RBI for a second consecutive year.

This ranking of Santander is considerably higher than where he’s being drafted so far, which may be due to Baseball Savant’s less-than-stellar expected stats. Our Pitcher List expected stats are much more favorable towards Santander, particularly in the power department, and I think Santander is a fantastic value anywhere near his current ADP just before pick 100 (ADP from NFBC drafts as of January 22).

 

35. Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) — Adley’s second half was a major bummer, especially considering just how well he played in the first half. As the process chart shows below, the drop-off was limited to power, as his ability to make contact was consistent, and his decision-making, while not ideal, is just fine considering his bat skills (our model considers swing decisions for the average player, not a player like Rutschman or Arraez who have a much better chance of making contact and getting on base against pitches around the edges and out of the zone).

It’s hard to get much of a read on why we saw such a dramatic shift at the start of July, but he lost about a tick and a half off his average exit velocity, and his slugging on fly balls dropped from .706 in games prior to July 1 to .268 after July 1.

I believe Adley can get right over the break regardless of what troubled him, and his bat skills provide an incredibly high floor over the course of a season. He could very well finish as baseball’s top catcher if he reverts to his first-half self, but even if he comes up short, Adley is well worth the investment at a draft cost that may never be this low again.

 

36. Oneil Cruz (SS/OF, PIT) — We finally got a full season from the 6’7″ shortstop, and to be honest, I am stunned by how consistent it was. Cruz made strides in both taking more walks and cutting down strikeouts as the season progressed and was rewarded in the second half with a .277/.357/.464 line. Cruz’s growth, oddly enough, doesn’t come from an improvement in his swing decisions but instead in his contact ability.

 

Cruz swings the bat extremely hard, with only Giancarlo Stanton posting a higher average bat speed in 2024. That, combined with an improved contact ability, makes Cruz an incredibly dangerous hitter. In his second full season, we could very well see Cruz take another step forward and approach 30 home runs with roughly 20 steals and a .270 batting average. That’s definitely on the high end of his projections, but if you’re going to shoot for the moon, it’s not a bad idea to do it with the 26-year-old physical phenom who has 100th percentile bat speed, a 97th percentile barrel rate, and 88th percentile sprint speed.

That said, if there’s a lot of risk in this profile, as Patrick Fitzgerald points out when discussing possible busts at shortstop. Cruz is one of the more hotly debated players early in the draft, so you’d be wise to figure out which side of the argument you land on prior to draft day.

 

37. James Wood (OF, WSN) — James Wood was heralded as a big power prospect with surprising athleticism in his 6’7″ frame and who might mature enough at the plate to be a star. Through the ups and downs of his rookie season, Wood showed that he could be just as good as they said. While I could wax poetic about his growth and his improvements in making contact, I think the best thing to do is show you.

Wood was a top-40 hitter in the second half per the FanGraphs Player Rater, and while most projections are more conservative than this ranking, the improvements in making contact combined with his elite potential in decision-making and power have me too excited to play it safe.

 

 

38. Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) — At the end of May, Langford was slashing .222/.288/.286 with a single home run and a single stolen base. He showed life as the summer wore on, and thanks to a surge in late June through early July, Wyatt Langford was fantasy’s 149th-best hitter by the All-Star Break, an impressive feat after such a slow start.

Langford came into the season with massive expectations due to his pedigree, and while it took time to see the promise in his bat, Langford certainly showcased what he could do, particularly in September when he hit eight home runs, stole seven bases, and hit a cool .300/.386/.610 in 114 plate appearances. We’re still likely to see a lot of variance in Langford’s performance, considering he’s going into just his second full season and is barely 23 years old, but this is a player with the potential to put together 30 home runs and 30 steals if he can carry even a little bit of his September energy into 2025.

3/14 Update: Langford missed a bit of time due to an injury, but looked healthy and ready to go in his return on Thursday.

 

39. Michael Harris II (OF, ATL) — Harris had a rather disappointing start to the season and then missed most of the summer with a hamstring injury, but when he returned, he showed us glimpses of the dynamic athlete we’ve seen in stretches since his debut in 2022. Some of Harris’ inconsistency comes from his poor decision-making at the plate, which improved late in the season but still remained well below average.

 

The power is the thing I’ll be keeping an eye on in the spring. Harris hit eight home runs in September of 2024, more than he had in any other month of his career. If Harris keeps that ground ball rate consistently below 50%, we could see a player who can get close to 25 home runs with 15 steals or so while hitting north of .280. He’ll start the season in the leadoff role while Acuña returns from his knee injury, and from there, will either move to second or sixth, depending on how he performs. It’s far more likely that he’ll move to sixth, which helps his RBI numbers but hurts his runs scored.

 

40. Jackson Merrill (OF, SDP) — I was mostly bearish on Merrill’s power all season, and he proved me wrong time and time again. I’d bet against Merrill putting up another month with nine home runs as he did in June (really, it was more like nine home runs in two weeks). However, a path to 25 home runs is still there if he shows power more consistently throughout the season, as he had three separate months with two or fewer home runs (April, June, and August).

In addition to the surprising pop, Merrill brings an incredible hit tool and a fair amount of speed. He spent the vast majority of 2024 hitting in the bottom half of the order in San Diego, but his strong 2024 should elevate him to the heart of a lineup that has plenty to offer at the top. Hitting around Luis Arraez, Tatis, and Machado should help Merrill exceed his run and RBI totals, making him a true five-category contributor next season, albeit one with a slightly lower ceiling than other young guys ahead of him in this tier.

There’s some risk here, mostly with the power and the fact he’s going to be just 21 years old when the season starts, and he’s going into his sophomore season, but the floor should be high enough to justify this rank even if he takes some steps back in a few places.

 

41. Teoscar Hernández (OF, LAD) — Hernández’s production is streaky, though that’s par for the course with aggressive power hitters who won’t walk much. I expect Teoscar to be much the same player as he was in 2024 in 2025 (and also 2021-2023), with some variance in batting average and stolen bases due to his approach and walk rate.

 

Tier 6

 

42. Willy Adames (SS, SFG) — Adames put together a career year after what can only be called a significantly disappointing season in 2023. He set new personal highs in walks, hits, home runs, doubles, runs scored, RBI, and stolen bases while also putting up his best full-season strikeout rate in the final year of his contract with Milwaukee.

Adames may struggle to clear 30 home runs for his new team as he goes from one of the friendliest parks for right-handed power in Milwaukee to one of the toughest parks for right-handed power in San Francisco (for what it’s worth, he would have hit over 30 home runs in Oracle Park had he played all of his games there, so this may be a moot point). He also might have a rough time getting to 20 stolen bases again as he goes from one of the most aggressive base-stealing teams to one of the most conservative.

Adames has an uphill battle to finish inside the top 20 hitters like he did in 2024. Still, even with these hurdles to jump, Adames should be able to hit at least 25 home runs and steal double-digit bases with acceptable ratios and plenty of counting stats, hitting second for the Giants.

 

43. Christian Walker (1B, HOU) — I’m not overly concerned with the five-point uptick in strikeout rate in 2024, as the Walker we saw in 2024 is basically the same as the one we saw from 2022-2023.

Walker should be a threat to hit 35 home runs in Houston, as the home-run-grabbing Crawford Boxes in left field are right where Walker wants to hit the ball. He should also be able to get to 90 RBI without too much issue hitting fourth, though he’ll need to stay healthy (he’s missed 30 or more games in two of the last four seasons). As for ratios, Walker has been quite steady, hitting roughly .250 over the last four seasons and posting an OBP near .330.

Walker ought to be a solid first baseman in all formats, though if you’re in an OBP format or are punting batting average and/or steals (a workable strategy in weekly leagues), you can probably bump him up a tier.

 

44. Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) — 2024 was Altuve’s first 20-20 season since 2017, and he also managed to stay healthy; that’s the good news. The less good news is that Altuve did not show the type of power he’d displayed from 2021-23 outside of seven homes in the opening month despite pulling plenty of fly balls. Altuve needs a lot of things to go right to hit a home run due to low exit velocities, but even at 34 years old, I think he can find that home run stroke for at least one more season. Altuve is very likely to get another top-five finish at the position if he plays 140 or more games (which he does the majority of the time these days), and still has it in him to finish as a top-25 hitter if things go right (especially after the Astros showed us they will actually let him run).

 

45. Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL) — Albies has missed significant time in three of the last six seasons, but in the seasons he has stayed healthy, Albies has shown he can knock 30 or more home runs with double-digit steals. Albies should find himself near the top of Atlanta’s batting order, so plenty of counting stats should be on the way if everything goes the way it ought.

That said, Albies was far from a fantasy standout in the 99 games he played last season and was merely the 12th-best second baseman in the first half despite normal playing time and presumed health. Between injuries and inconsistent performance, there’s quite a bit of risk here, but the upside is fantasy’s best hitter at the keystone.

 

46. Cal Raleigh (C, SEA) — Cal Raleigh’s 91 home runs since the start of 2022 are the best among catchers, and no one comes really all that close (second place is Sal Perez, who trails by 18). The batting average will be awful, and the OBP won’t be all that useful either, despite a walk rate that should be at or near double digits, but thanks to his ample playing time and big-time pull power, he should be the favorite to lead all backstops in home runs.

 

47. Salvador Perez (C/1B, KCR) — Sal is still Sal, folks. He swings a lot, hits home runs, drives in runners, and plays every day. Sure, he’ll have some brutal stretches because those fly balls aren’t going quite far enough, but as long as the Royals can be even an average offense (they were 13th in run scoring in 2024), his 25 or more home runs should drive in over 100 runners, and he should once again be one of baseball’s most reliable backstops.

 

48. Yainer Diaz (C, HOU) — A horrendous May where Diaz had zero home runs and a .200 average likely sent him to the wire in many single-catcher leagues. Those troubles were put behind him swiftly and forcefully, though, as from the start of June, Diaz hit .324/.348/.482 and was fantasy’s best catcher in the second half. He hits the ball hard, especially for a catcher, though his ground ball rate tends to sit just above 50%, keeping the home run rate somewhat suppressed.

If he can find the fly ball rate he had back in 2023, Diaz could find his way to 30 home runs, 100 RBI, and a .280 or better batting average. Even if he doesn’t, the 26-year-old catcher should be able to build on his successful 2024 with great ratios, plenty of counting stats, and 20 home runs.

3/14 Update: Not worried about his bad spring as he will have an excelent opportunity as an everyday player in the heart of the order.

 

49. Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT) — Reynolds, for some reason, remains a Pirate, and as such, he should continue to hit roughly 25 home runs and get somewhere between 80-90 RBI with a .270ish batting average.

Only two things might alter his value: a new team or a new position. The former has been rumored for years but has yet to materialize. The latter has been hinted at this offseason, as the Pirates have really no one on the current roster to cover first base, and also, Reynolds is one of the league’s worst defensive outfielders. I don’t think we can count on this positional eligibility in 2025, but if the Pirates still don’t have a first baseman by spring, this could start to get some legs.

 

50. Josh Naylor (1B, ARI) — Josh Naylor’s breakout actually began in the summer of 2023 when he started getting more balls in the air. While Naylor doesn’t have top-tier raw power in terms of exit velocity or barrel rates, he does do a nice job pulling fly balls, which makes the most of the above-average power he brings to the table.

The move to Arizona is a neutral home park change for lefties, though the home run factor for both parks is a bit rough.  Still,  hitting behind Carroll and Marte should allow him to put up at least as many counting stats as he did in Cleveland last year, with the upside for more.

 

51. Riley Greene (OF, DET) — Riley Greene has struggled to stay healthy in the majors, but I believe his 2024 indicates the type of power and contact we can expect in the big leagues. He finished just inside the top-60 hitters in 2024 despite the missed time, and Greene has done well to make adjustments so far in his career. Greene showed more of a propensity to steal in his first two seasons, but between keeping him healthy and his relatively average speed, I wouldn’t count on more than 10. That all being said, there’s definitely a top-50 bat in here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was inside the top 40 in short order with a hot start.

 

52. Seiya Suzuki (OF, CHC) — If Suzuki stays healthy and in Chicago, we could very well see him surpass his top-40 hitter finish from 2024. Suzuki is a consistent contributor when healthy, hitting .284/.361/.484 over the last two seasons while finally breaking into the double-digits in stolen bases in 2024 to go with 21 home runs.

Suzuki has yet to have a season where he gets to 600 plate appearances (though he’s been fairly close in each of the last two), but the consistent results from his times on the field leave me pretty certain that there could be more to his game hitting third behind newly-acquired Kyle Tucker in Chicago. Of course, Suzuki has been a popular name in trade talks, leaving some uncertainty to add to his mild-ish injury risk.

Those in OBP leagues can bump Suzuki up a little, but he’d still likely be in this tier for me.

 

53. Lawrence Butler (OF, ATH) — I admittedly knew next to nothing about Lawrence Butler before July, and to be fair, that is because he was hitting at the bottom of the A’s lineup in a platoon and had a .180/.257/.279 line. Then, without warning, everything changed.

In the 50 games he played from the start of July to the end of August, Butler hit 18 home runs, swiped eight bags, notched 87 combined runs and RBI, and had a 1.045 OPS. It was an absolute explosion, and though it fizzled a bit in September, it was a softer landing than I expected as he still hit for average and managed to swipe six bases, though he showed modest power.

Butler probably won’t steal quite as many bases as Doyle and won’t have as friendly of a home ballpark, and he doesn’t have the top prospect pedigree of Langford or Wood, but Butler played his way into the same conversation as those guys with his stellar summer. There was nothing lucky or cheap about Butler’s numbers, and though the counting stats will be hard to come by due to the less-than-stellar supporting cast for the Athletics, 25-27 home runs and close to 20 steals should be there, along with a batting average and OBP that won’t hurt you.

 

54. Willson Contreras (C, STL) — Contreras was excellent in the 84 games he appeared, hitting 15 home runs and slashing .262/.380/.468. Injuries took away most of his season, though, and reports from St. Louis suggest this will be Contreras’s last season with catcher eligibility.

In this new era of catchers who play a ton of games. Willson’s history of playing 110-130 games is slightly less impressive than it used to be, but the move out from behind the plate to first base and DH should help him stay healthy and perhaps even hit 600 plate appearances for the first time in his career.

A healthy Contreras should hit at least 20 home runs, and with the extra plate appearances, 25 should also be possible. Injury risk still exists, though, so you may opt for a different approach at catcher if you’re not looking to stream that spot in-season.

 

Tier 7

 

55. Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Caminero didn’t immediately dominate the minors, but that expectation for power hitters is almost always misplaced. To me, the most important thing about Caminero’s 43-game sample is that he was clearly not overwhelmed. That’s a critical factor, especially for players who are this young and who spent relatively little time in the high minors (less than a full season).

While the results didn’t show obvious growth throughout the season, our PLV metrics show that Caminero took several steps forward in his ability to make contact as he took more swings. He also became significantly more aggressive, which isn’t great, but it didn’t lead to more strikeouts, so I’m not overly concerned.

I doubt anyone would be shocked if Caminero put up 35-40 home runs in his first full tour of duty for the Rays, though between the ups and downs of being an inexperienced player and the fact that we haven’t quite seen him be the hitter we saw in the minor leagues in the majors, it’d be safer to expect 25-30 home runs and volatile ratios.

 

56. Will Smith (C, LAD) — Smith had a bummer of a second half, hitting just .206/.295/.331 with just five home runs and 20 RBI in 48 games. Thanks to his stellar first half, though, he still finished as a top-5 catcher in 2024, just as he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Competition is as fierce as ever and may keep him from a fifth consecutive top-five finish, but Smith should be able to hit another 20 home runs and drive in about 75 runners with a decent batting average.

 

57. Marcus Semien (2B, TEX) — The ultra-durable Semien came to the plate over 700 times in 2024 for the sixth consecutive full season. That volume allows him to pile up counting stats even when he and his team underperform expectations offensively. The fact he plays a position that has a dearth of elite talent makes that dependability and volume even more valuable.

Semien only slightly underperformed in most categories, though the eight steals (down from 14 in 2023) and .237 batting average (almost 10 points lower than his career average) really hurt. The batting average, in particular, was particularly painful as his 718 plate appearances gave that pitiful number a lot of weight toward a fantasy team’s final number.

Semien is entering his age-34 season, and it’s possible that playing in 1,502 games since his debut in 2013 is catching up to his body. Still, as long as he keeps showing up to play every day, he should be able to put together a solid season. Heck, even his disappointing 2024 was good enough to be a top-four second baseman in standard leagues, and that kind of floor is crucial if you’re looking to take a set-and-forget guy at the keystone.

 

58. Brenton Doyle (OF, COL) — When Brenton Doyle was up, he was up: from the start of July to the end of August, Doyle led all qualified hitters in the National League with a .995 OPS. When Brenton Doyle was down, he was down: he had the seventh-worst OPS in June among qualified National League hitters, and in September, Doyle had the worst wRC+ (-3) in all of baseball (minimum 60 plate appearances).

Colorado’s leadership seems to want to put Doyle in the leadoff role, as the more plate appearances in Coors he can get, the better, and it’s not as though there were going to be a lot of runners on for him if he hit in the middle of the order. The Rockies aren’t a terribly aggressive team on the basepaths, but thanks to the impressive improvement in strikeouts we saw overall in 2024, Doyle should be able to hit .250 or better next season and at least come close to repeating the 23 home runs and 30 steals from his breakout season.

 

59. Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CHW) — LuBob is the last man standing on Chicago’s South Side, and he’s coming off the worst extended performance we’ve seen from him in his career.

We all know the healthy upside, as we saw it in 2023 when he hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases in 145 games. We did not see it much in 2024, however, as LuBob struggled to pull the ball in the air and was surprisingly passive in the zone.

A player as volatile as Luis Robert Jr. is difficult to rank. A move to a contender (especially one that seems willing to help him refine his batting style) would vault him up these ranks fairly quickly while staying in Chicago would put a hard ceiling on his contributions even if he stays healthy.

In deeper formats, my tendency towards risk aversion would push LuBob further down in these ranks, but in 12-team leagues with only three starting outfielders, taking the gamble on a player who was a top-20 overall hitter in 2023 could be worth the risk.

Of all the players ranked so far, it’s worth noting that this is the one who might have the most movement on your board based on the picks you’ve already made. If you’ve already taken a performance or injury risk up to this point (Albies, Harris, Cruz, Seager, Doyle, etc.), LuBob probably should move down considerably. This rank represents where I’d be interested in Robert if I have mostly played it safe on the hitting side of my roster.

 

60. Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KCR) — Vinnie P has fantastic bat-to-ball skills, though we’ve seen the walk rate fade over his first three seasons. Why? From what I can tell, he is getting more aggressive early in the count. That’s not a bad thing, though, as a whopping 17 of his 19 home runs came in an 0-0, 0-1, or 1-0 count.

While we’d all love to see a hitter who walks as often as he strikes out, a player with Vinnie P’s contact ability is best served attacking the ball early in the count, especially when he has no issues getting the ball in the air in those situations. I previously believed Pasquantino’s power cap was around 20 home runs. Still, if he can keep punishing early pitches while staying healthy, we could see something closer to 25 home runs with over 100 RBI and a strong batting average. His ceiling isn’t as high as some young first baseman’s, but the higher floor makes up for it.

 

61. Ian Happ (OF, CHC) — Happed turned his low ceiling-high floor combo into its peak performance in 2024, finishing inside the top-45 hitters thanks to 25 home runs, 13 steals, and 175 combined runs and RBI.

Happ is a solid decision-maker who showed ample power at the cost of contact in 2024, which is a tad unusual for him. Regardless of the process, though, he seems to get to his 20-25 home runs and 10-13 stolen bases, and over the last two seasons the counting stats have taken a step forward.

I think 2023 and 2024 were more of a ceiling for Happ, though a high floor would keep him in the top 80 or so hitters as long as he stays healthy. I’ve ranked him on the low side due to what I see as a low ceiling (basically what he was over the last two seasons), though this ranking is actually a bit kinder than early ADPs I’ve seen, surprisingly.

 

62. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, NYY) — Yankee Stadium is the best park for left-handed power within a mile of sea level, making it a perfect fit for the pull-hitting Bellinger to get back to 25 home runs. A move to one of the best offenses in baseball and into one of the friendliest parks for his power is incredible for his fantasy value, and even though Bellinger has been difficult to project from year to year due to his shockingly low hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, a healthy Bellinger should be a solid addition to any fantasy squad.

3/14 Update: The hot spring is nice but the more I draft, the more I value the eligibility at first base.

 

63. Taylor Ward (OF, LAA) — We finally saw a full, if at times frustrating, season of Taylor Ward and witnessed 25 home runs and 75 RBI. Ward’s streakiness was due to his subpar contact ability, as both his decision-making and power were consistently strong in 2024.

Ward has always shown good decision-making skills, though his power and contact abilities have fluctuated. If he finds a way to put those together, those 25 home runs could come with a .275 batting average and more consistent production. Asking for that and health, though, feels a little greedy.

 

64. Mike Trout (OF, LAA) — Trout has averaged 66.5 games played over the last four years, though he’s slashing .276/.376/.575 when healthy over those four seasons. The risk here isn’t performance; it’s just playing time, and his injury risk is about as high as it gets.

If you get 120-130 games, you’ll get a top-40 hitter with a shot for even higher. If you get fewer than 100, you’ll still be fine in shallow leagues due to the high replacement level, but he won’t return this value. In fact, with Trout, there really isn’t much of a chance he finishes as a mid-tier hitter, as he’ll either be elite and healthy or miss a huge chunk of the season. How you’ve drafted up til now will determine whether Trout can remain on your board.

 

65. CJ Abrams (SS, WSN) — There aren’t many players who hit 20 home runs, steal 31 bases, and post a 107 wRC+ who get optioned to the minors on one of baseball’s worst teams, but that’s the story of Abrams in 2024.

The former first-round pick is all but certain to start the year as the leadoff man for the Nats, and something like 15 home runs with 30-40 steals is quite likely (the high steals variance stems from his swing-happy approach and erratic OBP). He’s also been surprisingly steady with his batting average, which has been either .245 or .246 in his three seasons thus far. There’s an upside for more here from Abrams, especially in the batting average department, considering his elite speed and contact ability. Still, his approach (both in the batter’s box and on the basepaths) holds him back. He’s only 24 years old, so the maturity could come at any time, but if it doesn’t you’ll be struck with what is a productive yet infuriating contributor.

 

66. Ezequiel Tovar (SS, COL) — Tovar is one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball, which, when you play for Colorado, you might as well be. That always-swinging approach will lead to some ugly lows and dizzying highs, but when all is said and done, it will likely look something like what he did in 2025, assuming he continues to find ways to adjust out of those funks.

He’s tougher to keep on your roster than his stat line suggests, particularly in weekly leagues, due to his tendency to spend two or three weeks stinking up the joint, but those who can weather the storm have a shot at a top-50 hitter without paying a top-50 price. That said, his poor supporting cast, the difficulties of traveling to and from Coors, and the possibility of an extended slump loom large.

 

Tier 8

 

67. Nick Castellanos (OF, PHI) — It has become incredibly difficult to know what to expect from Nick Castellanos from year to year, especially with respect to power. I’m inclined to believe that the 23 home runs from 2024 are about the right thing to project (not the 34 or 29 from 2021 and 2023 or the 13 from 2022), and that combined with the ample counting stats that should be available batting fourth for the Phillies would make him a top-50 hitter for sure.

Of course, nothing is safe when it comes to projecting Castellanos over the last several seasons, and even his solid 2024 was marked early on by an incredible slump.  Through his first 50 games, Casty was hitting .200/.273/.292 with just four home runs and 19 RBI, which sent him to the waiver wire in many standard leagues.

There’s plenty of risk here due to his unpredictable slumps (including one that lasted basically the entire 2022 season), but you won’t find many guys in as sweet a position as Casty at this point in the draft.

 

68. Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, BAL) — Westburg had a breakout in 2024 and looked like a very different hitter than what we saw in 2024. A big part of his success came from his aggressive approach early in counts, which I believe helped him put more power behind his swings. Had he remained healthy, he would have been on track to hit about 27 home runs, had the pace continued, and had Statcast numbers generally supported the results.

The only hesitation I have is how dramatic the changes were, seemingly out of nowhere. The two charts below are from 2023 and 2024, and it’s a huge shift in power. If Westburg remains the 2024 guy, this rank is definitely too low, but a regression toward the 2023 version would quickly turn him into a start-worthy but uninteresting fantasy player.

   

 

 

69. Matt McLain (2B/SS, CIN) — McLain missed all of 2024 but appears to be fully healthy coming into 2025. Like Westburg, McLain had a big power breakout in his most recent action, though I found McLain’s to be a bit more dubious than Westburg’s.

I don’t doubt McLain’s ability to hit 20-23 home runs or steal 15-ish bases. His batting average, though, was driven by a line drive rate that was considerably higher than what we saw in the high minors, and that 28.5% strikeout rate is unlikely to support anything close to a .290 batting average.

Due to the combination of power and speed, McLain has more overall upside than Westburg; however, the risk that comes with a player with a very short and surprising MLB track record is not something to take lightly.

For a bit more on both McLain and Westburg, check out the second base sleeper article from Scott McDermott.

 

70. Triston Casas (1B, BOS) — Casas struggled with strikeouts after returning from injury in August, but it was good to see him clobber five home runs and prove he still had the pop we saw at the start of the year. Casas should be fully healthy to begin 2025, though injuries have marred much of his early career.

Casas could absolutely hit 30 home runs in a full season with an OBP north of .360, but he’ll need to be healthy and continue to show growth against lefties. It’s a gamble due to the rough replacement cost at the position, but it’s a gamble that many projections expect to pay off.

3/14 Update: Casas has missed most of the spring with an illness, but he’s made his way back into games and should be OK to start the season.

 

71. Mark Vientos (3B, NYM) — Vientos had a breakthrough in his age-24 season, hitting 27 bombs with a surprisingly strong .266 average. It may be tough to repeat the home run pace (roughly 39 over 162 games) in his first full season for the Mets. I do have concerns about how his strikeout rate steadily rose over the year while his performance steadily tapered off, but if Vientos can make adjustments as he goes, he could jump up a tier or two before we know it.

 

72. Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) — Stop if you’ve heard this before in these rankings, but “he’s fantastic when healthy.” Yelich missed a month early on, gave us about two healthy months after that, and then went down for the year.

Early reports on his health aren’t the best, but as of now, we expect him back in the spring. When healthy, Yelich is a force at the top of Milwaukee’s lineup who can hit 20 home runs (though he technically hasn’t done that since 2019) and steal 25-30 bases while scoring 100 runs and putting up a solid batting average and excellent OBP.

If you have the room to take on some injury risk, this is a fantastic place to invest.

 

73. Jake Burger (1B/3B, TEX) — It took until July, but Burger finally unleashed the power we expected after he hit 34 home runs in 2023. In his 75 games from July 1 to the end of the season, Burger smashed 22 home runs and 15 doubles while hitting .278.

Streakiness comes with the territory when it comes to players with Burger’s pull-heavy, fly-ball-oriented profile, though some of that might be smoothed out by the dramatic improvement in the home ballpark as he moves from Miami to Texas, as Globe Life Field is a top-five park for right-handed home runs while his former home in Miami is the sixth-worst park for right-handed home runs.

It will, at times, be brutal, but Burger should get to 30 home runs in Texas, and while Texas’s offense is undoubtedly better than Miami’s, the counting stats won’t really change unless Burger can work his way up the batting order. Roster Resource has him slotted into the eighth spot, and while he may start in that role, there are plenty of opportunities to move up past guys like Evan Carter and Adolis García if he starts swinging a hot bat. If Burger gets locked into the fifth spot, he could very well approach 100 RBI, though 90 is a more realistic target.

 

74. Luis Arraez (1B/2B, SDP) — Arraez played with an injured thumb that he surgically repaired in the offseason, though even with the injury, Arraez was mostly what we expected him to be. It’s possible the injured thumb is what kept the power even lower than usual, though, in reality, you’re drafting Arraez because you want a huge boost to your batting average and 80-90 runs scored.

In points leagues, Arraez gets a boost of about a tier (maybe two, if your league heavily penalizes strikeouts), though it’s worth noting that he should be dropped a tier in OBP leagues. But Scott, Arraez has a career OBP of .372 and it was .393 in 2023! Yes, he does have a good OBP, no doubt about it; however, a .370-.380 OBP is not nearly the ratio boost his career .323 batting average provides. Arraez’s .314 batting average led the National League and was fourth in all of baseball, and most importantly, it was a solid 30 points higher than the 20th-best batting average (Freddie Freeman’s .282). When you look at the OBP leaderboard, though, Arraez ranked just 28th, and most of the top-100 qualified hitters in OBP are within 30 points of his .346 OBP.

In other words, Arraez brings huge value in batting average leagues, but that ratio advantage is much more modest in OBP. It seems obvious when you say it to yourself, but I still see Arraez go too high in plenty of OBP formats.

 

75. Matt Chapman (3B, SFG) — Chapman has exactly 27 home runs in three of the last four seasons with around 76 RBI, so that didn’t come as much of a surprise. What was a surprise was the 15 stolen bases with the Giants, as he had just 11 in 861 games prior to 2024. They were actually spread out across the season, so there’s a non-zero chance he gets back to double digits in 2025. Chapman also did a nice job avoiding any debilitating strikeout spikes like we’ve seen in seasons past.

Chapman’s path to another finish inside the top-40 hitters requires a repeat in the improved strikeout rate and stolen bases and the 98 runs scored while hitting fourth for a middling Giants’ offense. That’s a lot to bet on for a player heading into their age-32 season, though even if one or two of those things don’t come together, the 25-27 home runs and 75 RBI will always be there for us.

 

76. Randy Arozarena (OF, SEA) — Arozarena finished outside the top 100 batters in 2024 due to a ratio collapse. While he kept up the elevated walk rates we saw in 2023, his .219 batting average and paltry 60 RBI were a tough pill to swallow. Sure, he got to 20 home runs and 20 steals for the fourth consecutive season, but home runs and steals alone aren’t enough in this modern world.

That said, Arozarena showed the underlying ability is still there, especially in June and July when he hit eight home runs, stole nine bases, and slashed .287/.401/.509. If Arozarena can avoid the deep slumps and rebound more quickly in 2025, he could be a bargain in drafts.

 

77. Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) — We finally got a bit of a power breakout from Kwan that we all knew was possible, but it came at the cost of about 10 stolen bases off what we expected. The two aren’t really related, and there’s no reason Kwan can’t hit 10 home runs and steal 20 bags with a fantastic batting average.

That said, we saw an extended slump from Kwan that I didn’t think was possible with his hit tool and eye at the plate, suggesting the floor is lower than I had expected.

 

78. Alex Bregman (3B, BOS) — Bregman had a slow start, as did most Astros in 2024. Still, from June 1 to the end of the season, he slashed .284/.337/.500. His 6.9% walk rate is by far the lowest we’ve seen from him since his first full season in 2017, but he managed to perform at a high level across the board in all areas (except OBP) without the walks.

Bregman is famous for his pull-heavy approach to fly balls. He doesn’t hit the ball exceptionally hard or far, but it’s usually enough to get over the fence close to the foul pole in left field or, in the case of his new home, to bounce off the Green Monster.

Boston is unlikely to help Bregman increase his home run totals, but the boost to his batting average feels almost too obvious as the Monster will turn Bregman into a doubles machine and give life to some of those pulled fly balls that don’t quite clear the fence. The move to second base should also increase his value (which I am already accounting for here).

 

79. Jeremy Peña (SS, HOU) — Apart from the fact that Peña seems to go through a horrendous slump every year (in 2024, it was a 42-game stretch from May 27 to the All-Star Break that saw Peña put up a pitiful 62 wRC+ with just two home runs and 34 combined runs and RBI), Peña puts up fairly steady numbers.

The 2024 version of Peña was arguably the best yet as he hit 15 home runs, swiped 20 bags, and had solid contributions in both runs and RBI along with a .266 batting average. None of his numbers blow you away, but the overall contributions across all five categories give Peña a decent shot at another top-70 finish among fantasy hitters. If he somehow finds a way to avoid that prolonged summer slump, there’s even a chance he can squeak into the top 50.

 

80. Adolis García (OF, TEX) — Adolis accumulated a top-100 hitter season thanks to 25 home runs and 85 RBI. Still, he set career lows in five key statistical categories (runs, home runs, RBI, average, and OBP) and didn’t much resemble the all-world hitter we saw in 2023.

On the bright side, García hit the hardest-hit ball of his career (116.1 mph) and maintained solid barrel and hard-hit rates last season, suggesting there may still be a little left in the tank heading into his age-32 season. García has always struggled with making contact and is a below-average decision-maker, leaving very little margin for error, but if he makes slight improvements to more closely resemble his 2022 profile (there’s no real path to a 2023 repeat, from what I see), another 25 home runs with solid RBI numbers should be in the cards, plus roughly 10 steals and what ought to be a slightly better (though not very good) batting average.

3/14 Update: Oblique strains are scary, but Adolis looked a-OK in his return to action on Thursday and his quick recovery suggests to me that this won’t be a lingering issue.

 

Tier 9

 

81. Shea Langeliers (C, ATH) — Shea Langeliers isn’t a complicated guy to analyze — he’s a power-first pull-hitting catcher who is predictably streaky due to his aggressive approach and limited contact ability. Langeliers took a step forward in 2024, which was most noticeable in his performance against breaking balls (see the charts below).

 

If Langeliers can be an average to above-average hitter against breakers, he should continue to be a top-eight catcher. If he loses that net-positive approach, the dips could be too much to bear in shallow leagues. However, I don’t expect that result, as he steadily improved throughout 2024.

I could have just said, “he’s a poor man’s Cal Raleigh,” and likely given you the same intended impression, but I didn’t.

 

82. Luis García Jr. (2B, WSN) — It was a breakout year for the slap-hitting second baseman as he hit 18 home runs and swiped 22 bags while batting .282. García got more balls in the air and hit balls harder, which paid off handsomely.

Expect some streakiness due to his reliance on batted ball luck, but García should be able to be a solid contributor in standard and points leagues in 2025. He takes a step back in OBP due to his unwillingness to walk, but with his skill set, that’s more of a feature than a bug.

 

83. Alec Bohm (1B/3B, PHI) — Bohm finished as a top-60 player per the FanGraphs player rater thanks to his fantastic start to the season, hitting .300 in the first half with 10 home runs and 68 RBI over 82 games, which over an entire season would have been 20 home runs and over 130 RBI. That’s a Freddie Freeman clone in terms of production.

Alas, the breakout into stardom was not meant to be. Over his remaining 61 games (he missed a few weeks in September due to injury), he hit just .253 with five home runs and 29 RBI, which would have been 13 home runs and about 75 RBI over a full season. That’s not even a top-150 hitter (per FanGraphs, he was the 194th-best fantasy hitter in the same tier as Jared Triolo and Santiago Espinal).

Throughout a full season, Bohm’s floor is safe as he should keep hitting fifth or so for the Phillies and should hit around 15 home runs with a decent number of RBI (he has exactly 97 in each of the last two seasons). His reliance on BABIP due to his contact-oriented profile and preference to hit the ball up the middle or the opposite way makes him mostly a dull floor play in 12-teamers.

Those of you in points leagues or who play deep roto will value Bohm a lot more than I do here. He’s a solid floor play for ratios and decent counting stats, which will either make a lot of sense or no sense at all at this stage of your draft.

 

84. Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) — Nimmo is one of the big winners of the Juan Soto deal, as he now looks poised to bat fourth behind Lindor, Soto, and Vientos. Nimmo had never cleared 70 RBI before 2024, and coming into 2025 is a strong bet to clear 100 if he stays in the cleanup spot.

Once upon a time, Nimmo was considered an injury risk, but as we always say, a player isn’t an injury risk until he is. Nimmo has rattled off three consecutive seasons where he’s played in at least 150 games, and we have no reason to suspect the streak will stop there. Nimmo did deal with plantar fasciitis in 2024, though it began in May, and there isn’t really a noticeable change in his production from when that injury started to the end of the season (in fact, his best numbers came in June and July).

The more I think about Nimmo, the more I have slid him up my ranks (he was more than 10 spots lower before I began writing this blurb). The only red flag in his profile is the batting average that sunk last season. It’d be easy to say it was just a BABIP thing, as his .267 BABIP was 51 points below his career .318 mark; however, our PLV metrics (which use Statcast data) put his expected batting average at .233 in large part due to his grounders.

Nimmo rolled over a LOT of ground balls in 2024 and hit .233 on them collectively. In 2022 and 2023, he hit safely over .300 on balls on the ground as he hit them to all fields. If Nimmo continues to hit 91.4% of his ground balls to the pull field or up the middle, his batting average will remain painfully low, and it may move him down the batting order a bit (can’t have your clean-up hitter grounding out all the time, after all).

If Nimmo goes back to what he did in 2022 and 2023, he’s ranked 30-40 spots too low. If he keeps rolling over those grounders and falls in the lineup two or three places, then he’s much too boring, and I’d instead have used this spot on players with more exciting upsides.

3/14 Update: Nimmo has missed a fair amount of time due to a knee injury, but is back in games and getting at-bats, giving him plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day.

 

85. Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — Once again, Lewis missed significant time through the season due to injury. His on-field performance was not as dynamic as we saw in his 58 games back in 2023, but before going down with a second injury, he blasted 10 home runs in just 24 games while slashing .292/.354/.685. After that second IL stint, the results were far from glamorous, but I’m less concerned about that.

The concern, obviously, is whether Lewis can stay healthy. A healthy Royce Lewis is capable of finishing as a top-15 to top-20 hitter based on the 152 games we’ve seen already (33 home runs, a .268/.321/.497 line, and 185 combined runs and RBI), though in reality, a 130-game season would be a massive win and well worth this rank.

 

86. Yandy Díaz (1B, TBR) — The 22 home runs from 2023 were pretty darn fluky. It’s hardly a surprise that Yandy only hit 14 home runs in 2024, and the only real shock was how poorly Yandy hit in April, slashing .220/.290/.288 with a single home run, the worst month of his career by quite a wide margin (min. 100 plate appearances).

From the start of May to the end of the season, Yandy hit a much more familiar and expected .297/.355/.447, with all of the other stats being roughly in line with his career averages (apart from counting stats, though that’s less on him and more on the state of the Rays lineup).

Yandy will hit a ton of ground balls, 15 or so home runs, and give you a nice set of ratios with decent counting stats. The ceiling and the floor are incredibly close together. While that isn’t always what you’re looking for at this draft stage, you can sleep well knowing that if you’ve found yourself taking too many risks across your roster and need to glue together some ratios and counting stats, Yandy will be there for you.

I’ll note that I rank Yandy below Bohm by a few spots due to Bohm’s advantage in counting stats and team context. In OBP formats, Yandy would be a tier above Bohm.

 

87. Dylan Crews (OF, WSN) — Crews should be a threat to hit 20 home runs and steal 25 bases in his first full season in the majors based on talent, though I feel much more confident about the latter than the former. There was plenty to like in Crews’ first 132 plate appearances, namely that the plate discipline was as good as it was in the minor leagues, and he swiped twelve bases in just 31 games.

The question for the soon-to-be 23-year-old center fielder is whether he can show enough power to hit more than 15-17 home runs in a season. Don’t get me wrong, 15-17 home runs would be great, but for Crews to live up to the top-five prospect hype he built up since being drafted in 2023, we likely need to see some combination pulling the ball more and getting the ball in the air. Crews has a tendency to go up the middle or the opposite way when he gets the ball in the air, and while he’s not punch-less, he’s not the type of hitter who can consistently clear the fences in those directions.

 

88. Anthony Volpe (SS, NYY) — Speaking of summer slumps, Volpe’s finish inside the top-100 hitters seems impossible based on the rhetoric we heard from Yankee fans. Volpe struggled with grounders too often in 2024, and while Volpe is awfully fast, it’s tough to get to first base, much less second or third, when half of your batted balls hit the ground in the infield.

We did see improvements from Volpe in the second half, both in getting the ball in the air and in getting the ball to the pull field. If that growth can continue, Volpe’s talent could break through and show us the 20-homer, 30-stolen-base monster who leads off for a great offense that we’ve wanted to see since he was called up in 2023.

His aggressive nature makes it a bit longer of a bet than many want for their shortstop, but if you missed out on the top tiers of talent and want to take a flyer on a high-risk, high-reward option, this is the guy you’re looking for.

 

89. Xavier Edwards (SS, MIA) — In 30 games between July 11 and August 16, Edwards swiped a stunning 20 bags while hitting .375 with a .459 OBP. An injury about a week later derailed the Edwards train for a bit, but we did see Edwards come back and steal nine more bases in his last 23 games.

The Marlins offense does not have much going for it these days, and if they want to win any games, it will likely come from giving Edwards a ton of green lights. He could steal 50-60 bases given a full, healthy season with a batting average north of .290 and an OBP better than .350, but given the small sample of Edwards we’ve seen, it’s quite a bit more risk than, say, the previously mentioned Hoerner. Edwards is also unlikely to make the same impact in the runs scored column (it’s tough to see a path to even 80 runs), so you can only count on speed and ratios here.

 

90. Dansby Swanson (SS, CHC) — Swanson had a pretty miserable first half. In his first 100 games (which takes us through August 1), Swanson had a .647 OPS and just 74 combined runs and RBI. He did manage to hit nine home runs and steal seven bases in that span, though that only comes out to about 15 home runs and 11 steals over an entire season, which is not going to pay any fantasy bills with those pitiful ratios and counting stats Swanson had by this point.

Swanson did manage to turn it all around over his final 49 games, though, hitting .277/.343/.462 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and 74 combined runs and RBI (the same amount he had in those first 100 games… but in half the games played).

The “true” Swanson shouldn’t be either of those extremes, assuming his core surgery doesn’t slow him down over the offseason. Still, for Swanson to get into the top-100 hitters in 2025, he either will need to hit over 20 home runs or approach the 19 stolen bases from last season (which was a career-high) as it’s safe to assume that he’s going to hit under .250 and could fall short of 80 runs and 80 RBI if the young guys like Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong don’t pan out as Swanson will be hitting closer to the bottom of the lineup than the top.

 

91. Eugenio Suárez (3B, ARI) — Heading into play on July 1 after 80 games played, Suárez had a pitiful 66 wRC+ with just six home runs and was on his way to his worst season to date. Then, out of nowhere, the light bulb flipped on, and Eugenio went off on one of the hottest tears of any player in the league, hitting 24 home runs over his next 86 games (a 45-home run pace over an entire season with 63 runs scored, 66 RBI, and a 155 wRC+.

I don’t doubt that Suárez can hit 30 home runs again in 2025, as he’s done it in five of the last six full seasons, and 85-95 RBI should be in play, though the rest of the contributions all are suspect to one degree or another based on track record. Suárez is just as capable of being unrosterable as a game-changer for months at a time, so be prepared for both outcomes if you scoop him up.

 

92. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) — It took some time, but PCA’s bat broke through in 2024 at the start of the second half, and in 50 games from July 19 to September 15, he hit seven home runs, swiped ten bags, and hit a cool .272 with a much-improved strikeout rate of 21.4%.

Crow-Armstrong never showed consistent improvements in decision-making and only briefly flashed an above-average contact ability. However, even flashes can be exciting for a player with PCA’s power and speed combination. The ratios will be erratic, but few players at this stage can hit 15 home runs and swipe 30 bags, and Crow-Armstrong is one of them.

 

93. Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, HOU) — Paredes is the king of pulled fly balls, and the trade to Houston gives him an ideal place to park those pulled fly balls, thanks to the Crawford Boxes. I’m targeting Paredes everywhere because I love his extreme nature and think he can return to 30 home runs, but I also admit that he looked putrid for the Cubs. Statcast has been waiting for the bottom to fall out on Paredes due to his low exit velocities, but I think there’s a chance for him to be a top-75 hitter.

Don’t just take my word for it, though: Michael Hanlon also included Paredes in his article on sleepers at third base.

 

94. Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) — Dominguez looks to have been handed the reins to a starting outfield job after spending much time either on the IL or in the minors since his original debut in 2023.

In exactly 100 plate appearances, we’ve seen both the good and the bad in Dominguez. He erupted in his first taste of the big leagues, hitting four home runs in eight games while keeping the strikeouts to a reasonable rate. The Martian’s second trip to the majors was a little rougher, as he hit just .179 in 18 games with two home runs, though he did swipe five bags and walk at a 16.4% clip.

Dominguez shouldn’t have too many issues with strikeouts in 2025 and can probably walk a little more than average, but a high ground ball rate and some turbulence while adjusting to a full season in the majors will likely keep the batting average in the .230-.240 range. That said, 20 home runs and 20 steals are in play if he can stay on the field.

 

Tier 10

 

95. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF, ARI) — If you’ve read my work before, you know I struggle with how to rank Lourdes Gurriel Jr. While the final results end up looking just fine (he finished as a top-70 hitter in most non-OBP formats), the path to get there is a lot bumpier than it seems. While his ability to make contact is always present, Gurriel’s decision-making and power swing up and down.

That said, the season-long numbers do come out to something like a top-60-75 hitter most seasons. The inconsistency, limited upside, and injury history (he’ll likely miss 20-30 games this season as he does most seasons) create a potential draft-day bargain, albeit an unexciting one.

 

96. Zach Neto (SS, LAA) — Word is that Neto’s offseason shoulder surgery could cause him to miss the start of the season, but this ranking already takes that into account as Neto is coming off a 23 home run, 30 stolen base season and could absolutely clear 20 home runs and 20 steals even if he misses 20-30 games.

Neto’s value really took off once the Angels wised up and moved him out of the bottom of the order. Neto was moved to the second spot in the lineup in early August, and in those 48 games, he hit 10 home runs and stole 11 bases. Neto actually finished as a top-50 hitter in standard leagues despite spending so much time hitting in the bottom-third of the Angels’ mostly-punchless lineup, so even if he misses a month, he could recreate his 2024 results and then some just with a secure spot closer to the top.

 

97. Paul Goldschmidt (1B, NYY) — Good news first: Goldschmidt still hits the ball hard very often and has a barrel rate in the double digits, and he’s heading into a great situation in the Bronx with a better home ballpark and a better lineup ahead of him.

The bad news is that Goldy has never frequently pulled fly balls to take advantage of that new park he calls home. His ability to make contact in the zone has faded, and he swings outside the zone more often. He also falls behind in counts more often, and for two straight seasons, he’s been rather average against fastballs. All of this has predictably led to an erosion of his once-mighty walk rate and elevated his strikeout rate.

Perhaps his new team can fix many of these issues (or find ways to mitigate them), but it’s hard to see something other than a 37-year-old slugger with fading skills.  The opportunity and history suggest there’s a potential profit to be had here, but the days of calling Goldschmidt a lock to be a top-100 hitter are over.

 

98. Xander Bogaerts (2B/SS, SDP) — Bogaerts missed nearly two months due to a shoulder fracture, but on his return, he showed improved contact ability similar to what we saw in his prime. It’s unlikely that we’ll see Bogaerts clear 20 home runs again, as he’s fallen short in each of the last three seasons, but a return to a .290 or better batting average could very well be in the cards to go with 16-18 home runs and 15-17 stolen bases. It’s not an exciting profile, but it’s a very useful one, especially considering he’s eligible both in the middle and corner infield spots.

 

99. Lane Thomas (OF, CLE) — At the time of his final game with the Nats on July 28, Lane Thomas had stolen 26 bases in 74 games. Despite missing nearly a month earlier in the season, he had already surpassed his previous season high of 20 and was on his way to a fantastic fantasy season.

Following the trade to Cleveland, Thomas stole just four more bases in 53 games while hitting .209/.267/.390 and striking out 34.8% of the time. Seven home runs in September more or less saved his season with the Guardians, but we enter 2025 having no idea what to expect from Thomas.

Here’s what I do know — Thomas is unlikely to get close to his career high in home runs because those 28 in 2023 came out of nowhere, or stolen bases because he wasn’t that good at it (he converted under 70% of his attempts). Also, he’s more likely to hit in the bottom half of the order than the top half (in reality, he will probably hit fifth or sixth).

That said, the combination of 15-17 home run power and 20-25 stolen bases would be a ton of value at his current ADP range, and it’s probably worth the gamble in shallower formats as there are usually plenty of reasonable replacements in the outfield if it doesn’t work out.

 

100. Jurickson Profar (OF, ATL) — Profar’s age-31 season was by far the best of his career as he finished inside the top-30 hitters thanks to career highs in plate appearances, home runs, runs scored, RBI, batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. You know, basically everything.

Profar will be 32 when the season starts and remains without a team. How much do you believe in something resembling a repeat? I’m fine with a projection of 20 home runs and 10 steals with strong plate discipline, but that .280 batting average and .380 OBP were over 50 points higher than any other full season he’s posed, and Profar hadn’t hit 20 home runs since 2019.

Landing in Atlanta is ideal for Profar early in the season while the team waits for Ronald Acuña Jr. to return, as he’ll likely hit near the top of the lineup with an everyday role, but upon Acuña’s return, playing time will likely become more performance-based between him, Jarred Kelenic, and to a much lesser extent, Bryan De La Cruz. I expect Profar to be the best of this group and retain a spot in the lineup, albeit closer to the bottom, but there may be times when Profar takes a seat to allow one of those other guys into the lineup.

3/14 Update: Profar’s wrist has kept him out of early action, but he’s a long-time vet that should get up to speed quickly.

 

101. Andrés Giménez (2B, TOR) — Giménez’s batted balls aren’t impacted much by where he plays, as he doesn’t hit the ball hard at all, and even when he does, it’s generally on the ground. Expect Giménez to hit about .250 for his new club while putting a ton of balls in play and hitting something like 10 home runs or so.

Giménez’s primary value comes from his legs, as he’s stolen exactly 30 bags in each of the last two seasons, and that’s where we might see the real impact of the trade. Unfortunately, it doesn’t bode well, as he goes from a top-five base-stealing team in Cleveland to a bottom-five base-stealing team in Toronto. Since the start of 2023, the Guardians have stolen 128 more bases than the Blue Jays (299 to 171), and in that span, only one Toronto player has stolen more than 20 bases (Whit Merrifield’s 26 steals in 2023). If you use total steals across 2023 and 2024, you still only find three players with over 20 steals (Springer, Merrifield, and Varsho). It’s also worth noting, though, that the Jays haven’t rostered many base stealers over the last few seasons

The bottom of the order in Toronto looks pretty weak as it stands today, so it would behoove the Blue Jays to give Giménez the green light to keep the offense churning, and Giménez is a far better base-stealer than any of his teammates per Statcast’s new Net Bases Gained metric. Hopefully, we see the Jays be aggressive in the spring, giving us more hope that another 30 swipes are in the cards.

 

102. Heliot Ramos (OF, SFG) — Ramos made waves in the first half of June, swatting eight home runs and driving in 22 runners over just 17 games. The rest of the season was a bit more up and down, though, as that production basically matched Ramos’s entire second half (eight home runs, 26 RBI in 61 games).

We found out Ramos played through some nagging injuries as the season wore on, such as plantar fasciitis and a tight hammy, and it’s possible a full offseason will help him find that early summer version of himself.

It was good to see Ramos mostly keep the strikeout rate under control, with only a few extended stretches of 30% or higher, and as long as he can keep that part of his game in check, Ramos has a shot to work his way back to the middle of the Giants’ batting order and be a top-30 outfielder who can hit 25 home runs and drive in 80-90 runners with a workable batting average. If the strikeout rate spikes or he’s unable to find that power stroke again, he’s more of a replacement-level guy in shallower leagues.

 

103. Kerry Carpenter (OF, DET) — Injuries again kept Carpenter’s season to under 120 games, but when healthy in 2024, he continued to show that he has the power to hit 30 home runs and the bat skills to hit better than .270. That Kerry Bonds nickname ain’t for nothin’, after all.

If that were the end of the story, Carpenter would be ranked many spots higher. Unfortunately, there are two big elephants in the room we have to stare at when evaluating his game, and those are his struggles against lefties and, as mentioned previously, his struggles to stay healthy.

Over his fairly short career, Carpenter has been flummoxed by same-sided pitching, as he has a 55.2% ground ball rate against them with a .588 OPS in 134 plate appearances. The Tigers haven’t been keen to give him time to make adjustments against them either, opting to let him stay on the bench until the later innings when a left-handed starter is on the mound in the vast majority of cases.

In addition to the playing time concerns that come from a platoon, we also have to contend with the fact that Carpenter has a lengthy injury history. He missed time on the big league roster due to two back injuries (2022 and 2024) and a sprained shoulder (2023). Two of those injuries (2023 and 2024) lasted more than four weeks. If either the platoon or the injuries were the only concern, Carpenter would be a tier or two higher, but the fact we have to worry about both pushes him down.

 

104. Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) — Cowser hit 24 home runs in his first full season and was especially strong in the second half, putting together a 133 wRC+. I do not doubt that Cowser could hit 30 home runs, even in a tough park like Baltimore, but Cowser does have some wrinkles that cause concern.

Cowser is a pretty average decision-maker, and when you combine that with his major struggles in making contact (see below), it makes you wonder whether Cowser will continue to get time in the heart of the lineup and whether he will get as many opportunities to face left-handed pitching (they gave him fits in 2023).

To be someone you can rely on in fantasy, we will need Cowser to either become much more selective with what he swings at or become much better at connecting when he does swing.

 

105. Victor Robles (OF, SEA) — It has been a long time since Robles originally burst onto the scene back in the legendary days of the rabbit ball (also known as the 2019 season). He hit 17 home runs, swiped 28 bags, and looked primed to be a power and speed threat for years to come. Of course, it didn’t work out that way and he faded into obscurity until he was designated for assignment by the Nats and wound up in Seattle.

Following the All-Star Break, Robles became a regular at or near the top of the batting order, and that’s when we really started to take notice. Robles wound up hitting .323/.385/.449 in the second half and was an absolute terror on the base paths, swiping 26 bases in 55 games.

Robles is likely to start the year leading off for the Mariners, and if last season’s second half wasn’t a fluke (which I hope it wasn’t but also very well may have been), he could be a guy who hits 10 home runs, steals 40 or more bases, and hits .260 or better. That’s an enormous upside if you need speed, and the only reason it’s available at this point in drafts is because Robles has the dreaded performance risk and injury risk combo that is difficult to take on. His list of injuries is long and varied, and we’ve seen hundreds of bad plate appearances and weakly hit balls during his time with the Nats.

 

106. George Springer (OF, TOR) — On June 24, George Springer was likely on the majority of competitive 12-team waiver wires. He’d been demoted from the leadoff job and, through 71 games, was hitting .188 with just five home runs and 46 combined runs and RBI.

When all hope seemed lost for the 34-year-old veteran, things turned around almost instantly. Springer hit four home runs in his next three games and a total of 14 over the next 53 games, along with a .262/.338/.530 batting line and 75 combined runs and RBI before fizzling out in September as the performance crashed back to earth, and he found himself sitting on the bench two times a week.

Through all of that turmoil, though, Springer still managed to hit 19 home runs and steal 16 bases while staying mostly healthy for a third consecutive season. Grounders appear to be the culprit for the collapse of his batting average as he had two extended periods of a rate at 55% or worse, and that’s not a recipe for success for anyone, much less a 34-year-old veteran with a long injury history.

As of now, the Jays seem content to give Springer one more go as the leadoff guy in their lineup ahead of Bichette and Vlad Jr., meaning there’s plenty of reason to believe that Springer could put together a season with 20 home runs, 15 steals, 85 runs, and a usable batting average in 2025 as he did in 2022 and 2023. That 53-game stretch was the best we’ve seen Springer in years, so it’s not as though the tank is empty. If the groundball problem comes back, I’ll likely lose interest quickly, but if he keeps that rate closer to 45% than 60%, there’s plenty of fantasy value for Springer to provide.

 

Tier 11

 

107. Jorge Soler (OF, LAA) — A slugger with the power to hit 30 home runs who will hit in the top-third of the order should probably rank higher than this, but there are a few red flags that give me pause. The most alarming of these red flags is the major drop in performance on fly balls. Soler slugged 1.032 on fly balls from 2019-2023 and pulled 29.6% of those fly balls, but in 2024, he slugged .769 and pulled just 22.6% of his balls in the air. Those 2024 numbers were only slightly above average in terms of slugging and below league average in terms of pull rate.

In OBP formats, Soler should move up a tier or two due to his high walk rates, in standard leagues he gets knocked for his batting average and durability.

 

108. Bo Bichette (SS, TOR) — As you can see from the ranking, I am not anticipating a rebound from Bo Bichette, and even if you are (which is reasonable), I’m not sure he ever makes a run at being a top-50 player. Is it impossible that he returns to being a 20-home run hitter with a .290 batting average? Sure! The trends from 2023-2024 do not inspire confidence, though.

That said, Bichette is just 27 years old and is projected to bat fourth for what should be a reasonably productive offense, so it’s hard to drop him much lower than this.

 

 

109. Bryson Stott (2B, PHI) — Stott had a fantastic month of May, hitting .265 with a .379 OBP, two home runs, nine steals, and 33 combined runs and RBI in 25 games. Most of that came in a two-week stretch from the start of May to May 16, and during that time, he was a top-five hitter in all of baseball.

The rest of the season was far less exciting, as he put up an OBP under .320 and OPS under .685 in every other month of the season. He should get to 30 steals or so, as he did in 2023 and 2024, but his contributions in all other categories (except for batting average, at times) are replacement level (or worse). Still, the upside he showed in that stretch along with the reliable speed is a decent way to fill in your second base spot without paying a premium.

If you’re looking for some analysis with a bit of a brighter outlook on Bichette, check out Jeremy Heist’s shortstop sleeper article!

 

110. Gleyber Torres (2B, DET) — I love this signing for Detroit (even if it makes it likely that Tork starts the season in the minors) because of the support it gives to several places on their roster. Gleyber will probably hit first or second every day for the Tigers, and he should score plenty of runs in that role.

Torres was a bit of a disappointment in his final season as a Yankee, hitting only 15 home runs after back-to-back seasons of at least 24 while swiping just four bases after stealing double-digit bases in three consecutive seasons before 2024. Gleyber was particularly lackluster at the beginning of the season, failing to hit any home runs by the end of April. He ended the first half with a line of .231/.307/.347 and was on more than a few waiver wires.

The second half was far more promising, as he hit .292 with a .780 OPS with better plate discipline. That version of Torres was a top-60 fantasy hitter and the fourth-best fantasy second baseman (the second half of 2024 was not good for second base). I don’t respect Gleyber to be that good for a full season, but as long as he can avoid being as bad as he was in the first half, he can over-perform this ranking significantly.

Last note on Torres—Comerica Park is not going to do him many favors in the home run department (though it could boost his batting average due to the huge power alleys), and his 15 in 2024 is a far more likely outcome than a return to 20 or more. He’s got a fair shot at getting back to 10 or more steals, though, and the accumulation of counting stats at the top of the order should help make up for the loss of home run power.

 

111. Logan O’Hoppe (C, LAA) — O’Hoppe is one of the biggest movers between my early top 200 and now. I originally was concerned about the strikeout rate and poor second half, but looking more closely, O’Hoppe really just suffered from a single horrific month. In August, O’Hoppe posted a wRC+ of -7 and slashed .099/.163/.176, but in every other month, O’Hoppe had an OPS no lower than .729, including an OPS of .791 in September.

While the spiked strikeout rate in August (44.9%) is somewhat concerning, the fact we saw O’Hoppe make adjustments and improve significantly by September makes me feel a lot better about O’Hoppe as a consistent catcher for fantasy.

 

112. J.T. Realmuto (C, PHI) — This ranking for J.T. Realmuto might be a little low, but he will be 34 years old, has a lot of tread on those tires, and was fairly up and down last season. Realmuto also abruptly stopped stealing, which used to be a hallmark of his contributions as a catcher. If Realmuto can stay healthy, then he’ll likely be a bargain on draft day in single-catcher formats where he’s likely to slip as most teams will already have a backstop on the roster. It’s a bit counter-intuitive to call a soon-to-be 34-year-old catcher an upside play, but that’s what J.T. Realmuto is based on ADP and projections.

 

113. Tyler Stephenson (C, CIN) — Stephenson’s final line looked awesome, but a huge chunk of his value came in a single 40-game stretch where he hit 12 of his 19 home runs, scored 32 of his 69 runs, and picked up 29 of his 69 RBI. The other 98 games were much less exciting. Players who have these extreme hot streaks that carry their entire season are tough to judge for the following year, especially in head-to-head formats, but Stephenson’s playing time and upside are good enough to look past the concentrated production while we hope for a steadier stream of stats in 2025.

 

114. Masyn Winn (SS, STL) — Winn should start the season as the everyday leadoff man in St. Louis, and his skill set makes him a good fit for the role. Winn was a highly regarded prospect in many circles, though that was mostly driven by his glove and contact ability, not his power. Winn finished inside the top-100 last season, and in deeper formats where volume is at a premium, I’d likely rank him a tier higher; however, I don’t see a path to hitting 20 home runs with any kind of reliability, and while he has suggested he’d like to run more in 2025, Winn only converted 68.75% of his stolen base attempts despite his 87th percentile speed. Winn can likely repeat his results from 2024, but in a shallow format, I’m more likely to chase higher upside at this stage of the draft (such as Anthony Volpe or Xavier Edwards). That said, if you’re looking for safety, Winn is a fine play.

For a rosier outlook on Winn, check out Jeremy Heist’s shortstop sleeper article.

 

115. Carlos Correa (SS, MIN) — Correa slashed .310/.388/.517 in 2024 and was on a pace to set a career-high in home runs had he appeared in 150 games. Unfortunately, he fell 64 games short of that mark thanks to an injury stint in April followed by a two-month absence that went through July and August. Correa has chronic foot issues he manages every season, and missing large chunks of time is far from unexpected, but in leagues where you have plenty of IL spots, it’s not a bad idea to take a flyer on Correa and his top-80 upside, which he can accomplish even if he misses 20-30 games.

 

116. Cedric Mullins (OF, BAL) — In NFBC drafts through Christmas day, Mullins had been taken as early as pick 106 (that’s Riley Greene and Christian Yelich territory) and as late as 362 (with guys like Andrew Benintendi and Bryan De La Cruz). That’s a pretty accurate portrayal of the range of outcomes on Mullins’ projections.

On one hand, Mullins finished the season with 18 home runs and 32 steals and was a top-60 hitter in the second half of the season. On the other, Mullins remains buried near the bottom of Baltimore’s lineup and is more likely to fall lower than move up, not to mention that he’s likely to sit against most lefties if the O’s are healthy. He could even lose his role entirely if he struggles and Heston Kjerstad has a breakout.

All that said, I can’t get over Mullins’ fantastic plate discipline down the stretch (12.9% walk rate and 15.8% strikeout rate in the second half), largely due to decision-making improvements against breaking balls (see below). I think this version of Mullins, should he reappear, can be a top-60 hitter or better. There’s a ton of risk, and there are other players in this range who are also brimming with upside (who also happen to be many years younger) but don’t forget about Mullins, especially if he falls quite a bit later than the other hitters in this tier on draft day, which is a distinct possibility.

 

117. Nolan Arenado (3B, STL) — Arenado would have been a bit higher had he ended up in Houston due to it being a great place for right-handed pull hitters to hit dingers, but as of now, he remains in St. Louis.

For the second consecutive year, Arenado has given us the worst full season of his career, hitting just 16 home runs and driving in 71 runners. Thanks to his .272 batting average and ample playing time, he finished inside the top 100 hitters, but it was not something anyone would be terribly happy with considering Arenado’s ADP and track record.

Arenado is highly likely to play 150 games and bat fourth for a potentially not-terrible offense, so he does have value as a third baseman who can hit 20 home runs with a good batting average while driving in 80-90 runners if things go just a little better than they did in 2024. He probably won’t be much worse than that, even if it’s another rough year, but it’s not likely he will do much better, either.

 

118. Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Jung is a classic masher from the right side, albeit one who is mostly unwilling to walk unless you make him. Jung has more than enough pop to hit 35 home runs if he keeps the strikeouts under control; however, that is not something he’s been able to do with any consistency thus far in his career.

That’s all there is to it. The elder Jung has enormous power upside and could be a top-seven third baseman in 2025. He also could be unrosterable due to strikeout issues.

3/14 Update: The plate discipline has looked excellent this Spring and he’s taking plenty of walks, which are a fantastic sign.

 

119. Brice Turang (2B, MIL) — Turang set the world on fire with his legs at the start of the season, swiping 14 bases by the end of April. He was considerably less exciting in the second half, but frankly, you’re not drafting Turang for his bat; you’re doing it for those sweet, sweet, stolen bases.

Turang has an uphill battle to double-digit home runs, but he’s all but guaranteed to finish in the top three or four in the league in steals while posting ratios that shouldn’t hurt you and scoring a fair number of runs (especially if he gets locked into the leadoff role while Yelich is healthy). Guys who only contribute in two categories won’t always still be on your board by this stage of the draft (like if you took Ohtani, ELDC, J-Ram, or Duran earlier on), but if you’re light in stolen bases, then Turang is the premium “rabbit” on the board (Paul Sporer’s term for speed-only guys).

 

120. Brendan Donovan (2B/3B/OF, STL) — Donovan’s profile is carried by his contact ability and batting average, but as long as he stays healthy he should find his way to double-digit home runs. As of now, he’s projected to bat fourth for the Cardinals instead of leading off, so he’ll be in a good position to drive in runners despite the limited pop. Donovan isn’t a terribly sexy pick, and his upside is somewhat limited, but ratios and RBI can be tough to find later in the draft and Donovan is here to provide. It’s also worth noting that in Yahoo formats Donovan just barely gets away with third base eligibility thanks to his five starts there last season, adding to his already useful second base and outfield eligibilities.

 

121. Brandon Lowe (2B, TBR) — The other second basemen in this tier are safer than Lowe, who has struggled mightily to stay healthy throughout his career, but unlike these other guys, Lowe brings power to the table. Second base is bereft of power, and if you look at a variety of projections, there are about as many catchers projected to hit 20 home runs as there are second basemen, and both lag significantly behind the other positions. That makes Lowe a rather interesting play if you’ve chosen to wait on second base, who has put up a 28-30 home run pace in each of the last two injury-shortened seasons.

 

122. Jonathan India (2B, KCR) — India doesn’t have much power, and he’s remarkably average at making contact. Thankfully, India does have one tool in his toolbox, and it’s his ability to consistently make strong decisions at the plate.

Thanks to his new role as the everyday leadoff man in Kansas City in front of Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez, India should get the most out of his double-digit walk rate. Assuming he stays healthy (which has been an issue at times), India can get to 90 runs scored and swipe 13-15 bases with a .260 batting average and .360 OBP.

Remember, though, that India’s home run ceiling in Kansas City is devastatingly low. India has at least 10 home runs in each of his four seasons, even when he missed 40-50 games, but that was in Great American Ball Park, the best park for home runs by a fairly wide margin per Statcast’s Park Factors. His new home, Kauffman Stadium, is one of the toughest parks in baseball for home runs. India may make it to double-digit home runs again in 2025, but it won’t be by much.

Kauffman isn’t actually a bad place to hit, though—it’s the fourth-best park overall for hitting and run-scoring thanks to its amazing batter’s eye and enormous power alleys on both sides of the park. India should see a boost to his batting average, and those in points leagues won’t see much of a loss, thanks to the doubles and triples that Kauffman grants.

India isn’t likely to finish inside the top-80 hitters (unless you’re in an OBP or points league) even if he stays healthy, but he’s a lock to finish inside the top 150 and should be a ratio stabilizer who pads your runs scored totals while chipping in some steals.

 

123. Josh Lowe (OF, TBR) — At some point in 2025, Josh Lowe will likely be rostered in every league, making everyone happy. It’ll last a few weeks or even a few months. Also, in 2025, Josh Lowe will be the most dropped player in the game for a time. That’s just the nature of the beast based on what we saw in 2023 and 2024.

The volatility comes from several sources. The primary source is his limited ability to make contact combined with his above-average swing aggression. That’s a classic recipe for streakiness, as it relies on both batted ball luck and seeing the ball well, neither of which will go his way consistently.

In addition, Lowe hits a lot of fly balls, and the vast majority of them go up the middle or the opposite way, which is where fly balls usually go to die. He pulled just 18.6% of his fly balls in 2024, an improvement from 2023. Fly balls that don’t leave the yard are usually outs, and fly balls up the middle and the opposite way don’t leave the yard that often, and as long as those batted ball trends continue, I expect inconsistent results.

 

124. Tyler O’Neill (OF, BAL) — O’Neill is coming off a season where he just hit 31 home runs in 113 games (a 162-game pace of over 44 dingers), but he also spent 49 games on the bench or IL, struck out 33.6% of the time, and had three separate months where he hit less than .185.

O’Neill’s high walk rate means he’d probably be one or two tiers higher in an OBP ranking, but in batting average leagues, we have to contend with his .218/.293/.391 line against right-handed pitching since the start of 2022.

O’Neill’s 2021 and 2024 seasons remind us that he has a ton of power and the upside to be a top-60 hitter if he stays healthy for an entire season. The reality, though, is that O’Neill is a flawed player with a checkered past in terms of both health and performance. It’s a classic high-risk, high-reward play, so make of that what you will.

 

 

Tier 12

 

125. Luis Rengifo (2B/3B, LAA) — Rengifo stole just 18 bases in 448 career major league games prior to 2024 and had a 37th percentile sprint speed in 2024, so of course, he swiped 24 bags in 78 games. It makes total sense!

Unfortunately, we only got those 78 games out of Rengifo last season, as a wrist injury shut him down for the year. Rengifo has never played more than 127 games in any of the last three years.

We should be able to get 15-17 home runs with 20-23 stolen bases, though the latter could be a lot more if he runs at anywhere close to the same rate as he did last season. Rengifo is projected to hit second behind Taylor Ward and in front of Mike Trout, though Zach Neto might have something to say about that if he starts swinging a hot bat.

I’m hedging a little on Rengifo’s stolen base totals just because it was so out of nowhere for him to be on a 50-steal pace, and that uncertainty, combined with his lengthy injury history, is what keeps him so low in these rankings. I wouldn’t be surprised if his current ADP range shoots up a bit as we get closer to the spring, though, especially if Rengifo looks healthy.

3/14 Update: It’s a little nerve-wracking that we haven’t seen Rengifo play much this Spring, but there’s no indication he’ll miss Opening Day. I’d still REALLY like to see him swipe a bag before the season starts, though.

 

126. Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SFG) — Lee’s 158 plate appearances doesn’t give us enough to draw too many definite conclusions, but it did affirm that Lee will avoid strikeouts and hit for at least a decent batting average. Assuming Lee gets to hit at the top of the lineup for the Giants, he could be a bargain option for runs scored, which is an extremely difficult category to make up in the middle to late rounds. Lee may not clear 10 home runs or stolen bases even if he stays healthy, but 80 runs and a .280 batting average would be very welcome at this stage of the draft.

 

127. Michael Busch (1B, CHC) — Michael Busch’s upside is worth chasing against right-handed pitching, but against lefties, it’s just weak fly ball after weak fly ball. Maybe you can consider him a full-time guy in OBP formats, but he’ll be tough to trust in weeks where Busch will face a slew of southpaws.

 

128. Max Muncy (3B, LAD) — Muncy missed about three months of action in the middle of the season, but when healthy, he showed he still has the skills that have made him fantasy relevant for the last seven seasons. Muncy hasn’t played 140 games in a season since 2021, but there’s more than enough pop in his bat to get to 25 home runs even if he only plays 120-130 games. He’ll hurt your batting average, sure, but Muncy gets on base a ton thanks to a career 15.0% walk rate and there should be plenty of RBI hitting fifth for the Dodgers. Age and durability will keep him down on draft boards, but if you missed out on the elite third baseman in the early rounds, Muncy is a player you should stash in your queue.

 

129. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, CIN) — Encarnacion-Strand was one of the league’s worst hitters in his 123 healthy plate appearances, largely due to a spiked ground ball rate that, given time, I think he could work through. CES is an extremely aggressive hitter who isn’t all that keen on taking pitches (3.3% walk rate in 2024), so he’s particularly prone to ups and downs based on batted ball luck and whether he’s hitting the ball in the air at any given moment.

3/14 Update: Encarnacion-Strand has a clearer path to playing time with Steer missing a month of action, but clearer does not mean clear. Still, he’s hit a few home runs this Spring and a few flashes in April should get him into a regular role quickly. Unfortunately, I can’t move him up these ranks much as my previous ranking already accounted for a move up the depth chart.

 

130. Alec Burleson (1B/OF, STL) — Burleson was a full-time player in 2024, and it led to a top-60 finish among hitters thanks to 21 home runs, plenty of counting stats, and a .269 batting average. So what’s he doing all the way down here? Simply put, Burleson can’t hit same-sided pitching.

In 163 career plate appearances against southpaws, Burleson has a 49 wRC+. For those who don’t use wRC+ with regularity, it means that he was 51% worse than an average player against left-handed pitching. This is despite just a 13.8% strikeout rate against them. Usually, this can be explained by grounders or something, but in this case, it’s just really poorly hit baseballs.

Even in a platoon, Burleson can provide fantasy value thanks to his plus power and contact ability. He’ll likely hit second when he’s in the lineup, and given 500 plate appearances (that’s about 110-120 games, give or take), he could hit another 18-20 home runs with a fair number of runs and RBI and a .270 batting average. Combine that production with his eligibility in both the infield and outfield, and you’ve got yourself a nice piece to a roster.

 

131. JJ Bleday (OF, ATH) — Bleday has solid plate discipline, 20-23 home run power, and a guaranteed role hitting in the heart of a top-heavy Athletics lineup. He was especially good in the second half, hitting .263/.343/.464.

Bleday strikes me as a player with a strong floor due to his decision-making skills and role, and his average contact skills in 2024 were an enormous step forward from what we saw in 2023 when he was in the bottom 25% of the league. That said, Bleday doesn’t strike me as a player with a high ceiling. That strong second half still only made him the 85th-best player on FanGraph’s player rater for that period, and even if he keeps it up for a full season, it’s tough to see how exactly Bleday works his way into, say, the top 60 hitters.

Consider Bleday if you need a safe fourth outfielder, especially in OBP leagues and deep formats where his volume and decision-making are most appreciated. In standard 12-team leagues, though, he’s more of a risk-mitigator than anything else.

 

132. Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) — Buxton’s 102 appearances in 2024 were the most he’s had in a single season since 2017. To his credit, he was pretty fantastic in those 102 games, hitting .279/.335/.524 with 18 home runs, seven steals, a fair number of counting stats, and an improved strikeout rate of 25.2% after back-to-back seasons with a strikeout rate above 30%.

Before you get too excited, though, remember that 102 games represent 63% of the season, and that’s his second-highest total of games played in a season since 2014, and that includes minor league appearances.

If you can manage to hold him on your IL when he inevitably goes down for a few weeks, his output over the course of the season, combined with whatever replacement player you get to fill in for him, should be much better than the 120th-best hitter. If you only have two or three IL spots, you’ll likely end up cutting Buxton at some point for someone better who hits the IL.

Buxton has more talent and upside than anyone in this tier and possibly even the tier above it; however, he is also likely to spend more time on the IL than any of those players. I’m all for taking on risk, but Buxton’s injury risk is the highest of any hitter, and I’m not sure it’s that close.

 

133. Nico Hoerner (2B/SS, CHC) — It was a horrendous start for Hoerner, who spent the first few weeks of the season batting seventh and ended April with just a single stolen base on three attempts and (less surprisingly) zero home runs. The stolen bases started coming in May, but the batting average didn’t really kick in until July when he initiated a 12-game hitting streak, and from the start of that streak to the end of the season, Hoerner hit a cool .306.

Hoerner is more valuable in points leagues due to his ability to put the ball in play and because those leagues don’t really care if you’re a sandbag in certain categories. Hoerner is perfect in category leagues if you’ve scooped up plenty of power and RBI but are lacking in batting average or steals, though if you’re already sitting pretty in those categories, Hoerner is best crossed off your list entirely.

 

134. Colt Keith (2B, DET) — The signing of Torres in Detroit likely moves Colt Keith to first, which is great for his position flexibility. Keith is going to find a way to play every day no matter how the rest of the roster shakes out, and I do think there’s more power in his bat than he showed us last season. Keith got off to a miserably slow start in 2024 and didn’t hit his first home run until May 24 and never really found consistent power (though he did hit a whopping seven home runs in July), but more time and seasoning should help him find that power stroke. Don’t write off Keith as a boring, low-ceiling second baseman just because of that rookie year. If he can get a better feel at the plate and hit flies the opposite way a bit less, Keith could be a 20 home run guy.

 

135. Connor Norby (2B/3B, MIA) — Norby’s profile is a fairly typical one in that he strikes out in bunches and also could hit 25 home runs. Miami isn’t an ideal place to hit, but it is ideal in the sense that they are likely to just let him play and develop at the major league level. We saw Norby’s walk rate improve towards the end of last season, and if he can bring that improvement into 2025 he should easily outperform this ranking.

 

136. Ryan McMahon (3B, COL) — Ryan McMahon hits third every day for the Rockies, and he’s fine (as far as MLB hitters who bat third go). He’ll hit 20 home runs, have surprisingly few runs and RBI considering his volume, and hit .240. You won’t roster him all season in a 12-teamer, but you might grab him for a homestand or a hot streak here and there. Deep-league players will appreciate his volume a lot more than I do.

 

137. Nathaniel Lowe (1B, WSH) — While Lowe is prone to slumps due to his high ground ball rate, you can rest assured knowing that at the end of the season, Lowe is going to have played a lot of games and will hit something like .265/.360/.410 with 16-18 home runs and approximately 75 RBI. His ceiling is that of a fringe top-100 player (I don’t consider his 2021 season repeatable in any way), and his floor is that of a fringe top-150 player. It’s not exciting, but it pays certain bills. He’s more valuable than that in OBP and points formats, though.

Lowe has a new home in the Nation’s Capital, but honestly, this doesn’t change much about what to expect from Lowe. It could limit his counting stat totals, but not any more than they were limited by that Ranger offense last season.

For even more on Lowe, check out Michael Hanlon’s article on sleepers at first base.

 

138. Ryan Mountcastle (1B, BAL) — Mountcastle has hit at least .270 for two consecutive seasons and has been a reliable, if unexciting, option at first base who plays every day when healthy for a good offense. Mountcastle did not barrel the ball the way we hoped in 2024, but new dimensions at Camden Yards should help his fly balls have a better chance of leaving the yard. Health has been an issue as Mountcastle has played in fewer than 125 games in each of the last two seasons, but a full season should lead to 20 home runs for the first time since 2022. The ceiling isn’t terribly high (2021 looks like it will always be the best of his career), but steady production isn’t a bad thing.

 

Tier 13

 

139. Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) — McCarthy exploded onto the scene in 2022, bounced between the majors and minors in 2023, and finally had a full season in the majors in 2024. It was odd that McCarthy didn’t steal more bases than he had in prior seasons despite playing in 43 more games than he did in 2022 and 2023, but he did hit .285 and improved his strikeout rate, so who are we to complain? McCarthy’s real flaw comes from his aggression at the plate and unstable decision-making. As you can see from the charts below, McCarthy shows flashes of being an average decision-maker but has a tendency to crater out to well below average, and in those moments he is quite difficult to roster as he hits too many bad balls to the infield. If he shows some average or even slightly below-average decision-making skills, he can be a top-100 hitter, but if he reverts to below-average, McCarthy will be platooned (or worse).

 

140. Andrew Vaughn (1B, CHW) — Vaughn’s final line for 2024 was marred by his horrific start to the season, hitting .192/.254/.246 over his first 35 games with zero home runs and just seven RBI for a wRC+ of 43 (and remember, league average is 100). He was much better over the remaining 114 games, hitting 19 home runs, driving in 63 runners, and a line of .261/.310/.448. Vaughn won’t turn 27 until after the season starts so it’s possible he has another level to his game waiting to be unlocked, but my gut says that 20 home runs and 80 RBI are about as good as it can possibly get for Vaughn with his current batted ball profile and the fact he’s stuck in baseball’s worst offense. Vaughn is best deployed in deeper formats that will appreciate his volume, but in shallower leagues, I’d rather chase more upside.

 

141. Michael Toglia (1B/OF, COL) — The 6’5 corner man put on a show when he returned to the majors in June, hitting 12 home runs in a 28-game stretch from June 15 to the All-Star Break, with six coming in the last six games.

Toglia hits the ball fantastically hard (92.2 mph average exit velocity) and has power to all fields, though he also strikes out well over 30% of the time and struggles to get his batting average over .200 even when playing half his games in Coors.

Toglia should hit near the middle of the order for Colorado and play every day, and with that playing time comes a shot at a 30-home-run season and 10 steals to go with it. OBP leaguers and ratio punters can slide Toglia up a tier, but those in batting average leagues who care about batting average will need to have drafted some batting average contributors earlier on to offset the serious damage he does to you in that category.

It’s also worth mentioning that Toglia probably won’t be a consistent contributor to runs and RBI due to how awful this offense is on the road (and just in general, really). That said, Toglia’s power plays in any stadium, so the home runs will keep popping off even on road trips (though everything else will dry up).

For even more on Toglia, check out Michael Hanlon’s article on sleepers at first base.

 

142. Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, SDP) — I squeezed one more high-floor,  low-ceiling player in this tier because it’s my list, and I can do whatever I want. Cronenworth’s totals at the end of the season will probably land him somewhere in the top 125 among hitters, mostly from sheer volume. He’ll hit 17-18 home runs and drive in around 70-80 runners hitting behind Arraez, Tatis Jr., Merrill, and Machado. The batting average will be around .240, and the OBP will be slightly less lame .325 or so.

And that’s it. He does yeoman’s work in points leagues due to his sub-20% strikeout rate and ample plate appearances, but in category leagues, you’ll probably want to chase something better at times over the season. When you wonder what the replacement level is for first and second base, you’re looking at it right here in Cronenworth.

 

143. Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF, LAD) — Edman missed most of 2024 due to injury, but is lined up to be the starting centerfielder for the Dodgers in 2025. He’s likely to bat near the bottom of the order, but that’s not so bad when you’re a Dodger. Edman flashed pop and speed in his 37 games last season and should return to something like the guy we saw in St. Louis who can swipe 25-30 bases, though any dip in speed will be a huge hit to his value as the bat doesn’t bring much to the table on its own.

 

144. Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI) — The slap-hitting Moreno had a slightly disappointing batting average last year compared to his career average, but the big step forward in walks suggests he can continue to provide excellent ratios (for a catcher). He’s not going to provide much juice in any category outside of those ratios, though, so Moreno is a guy you only target if you are either in a points league or you find yourself really unstable in the ratios department.

 

145. Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) — Let’s start with the good news: Jeffers hits the ball hard and improved his strikeout rate significantly in 2024. He also stayed mostly healthy for the entire season. The bad news, if you want to call it that, is the performance is incredibly uneven as he oscillates between awesome and droppable in seemingly random intervals. Last season, Jeffers had three months of the season where he slugged .536 or better and three months where he slugged .361 or worse (and two of those were under .250!).

I suspect much of the up-and-down performance stems from his sub-par decision-making. if he can clean that up, we’ll have a breakout catcher. Unfortunately, Jeffers has not shown any signs that this will be changing, so for now he’s merely one of the higher upside streamers who you’ll likely be forced to drop for weeks at a time.

 

146. Austin Wells (C, NYY) — Wells performed admirably for a rookie catcher in his first full season, showing strong plate discipline and sustained success for most of the summer (though he fell off at the end of the year). Wells is lined up to be the primary catcher for the Yankees all season long and his ability to hit the ball in the air combined with his left-handedness could lead to a top-10 season at catcher if he can replicate what he did in the second half last year. Young catchers are always a gamble though, so he makes a better late-round flyer in single-catcher leagues.

 

147. Spencer Steer (1B/OF, CIN) — Everything looked awesome before the All-Star break. Steer had 15 home runs, 14 steals, 60 RBI, and the world was his oyster. Following the break, things got ugly fast, as he hit .198/.291/.344 with just five home runs and 32 RBI over the final 63 games of the season.

The issue was primarily that the power wholly eroded. Steer’s success was mainly fueled by making good decisions and being a little better than average at contact with merely average power, which doesn’t sound like much. Still, it was plenty for hitting home runs in Great American Ballpark. The rest of the profile remained steady, but the power continued falling apart.

Despite all that, Steer finished as a top-10 first baseman, and he’s shown he can sustain power numbers for extended periods, even if our metrics find the power a bit dubious. The bottom could call out at any moment (and has more than once), and the skills themselves aren’t all that eye-popping, but he’s got enough to succeed in Great American Ballpark, also known as Coors East.

3/14 Update: It looks like Steer will miss a month of action or so, and more than that, he’s opened the door to guys like Christian Encarnacion-Strand to find a way to win some extra playing time that may or may not be at Steer’s expense depending on how he performs on his return.

 

148. Jackson Holliday (2B, BAL) — The top prospect of 2024 should have the inside track to a starting role in 2024 at second base, though he’ll need to prove to the Baltimore brass that his .417 OPS against lefties will be quickly corrected to avoid a platoon (most projections seem to bake in a platoon).

While Holliday’s 2024 did not live up to expectations, there were signs that there’s more than just hype in this profile. It’s hard to see through that 63 wRC+ and 33.2% strikeout rate, but buried under all of that yucky stuff was a player who was starting to make adjustments, particularly in his swing decisions.

Holliday’s poor decisions led to strikeouts or, if he did connect, balls in play of poor quality. Holliday did hit the ball hard, but it was almost always on the ground, and he hit hardly any line drives (9.8% is ridiculously low, even in a smaller sample).

The strikeouts and grounders overtook everything in Holliday’s first shot at the majors, but we did see him take the first step towards clearing those hurdles by making better decisions at the dish. If he can carry any of that improvement into 2025, we might get that breakout we all hope for.

 

149. Rhys Hoskins (1B, MIL) — I hoped that Rhys Hoskins would come right back to being the same ol’ Rhys on his return after missing all of 2023, and in many ways, he did: Hoskins hit over 25 home runs, drove in 82 runners, and walked over 10% of the time. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate also spiked a bit, and his pull-heavy profile led to many easy outs. Hoskins can still provide solid home run and RBI totals, but they’ll come with harshly negative ratios. If you’re not worried about batting average (a workable build in most H2H category leagues), Rhys is a great option late, but points leaguers and Roto players should only look for Rhys in specific scenarios.

3/14 Update: Hoskins has been one of the Spring’s best hitters, and while I don’t put too much into Spring performances for veterans, A return to his “old” self in year two of his return feels like a plausible narrative.

 

150. Matt Shaw (3B, CHC) — Shaw has the tools to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base guy as a rookie, but like most rookies, he will need to quickly adapt to major league pitches, breakers in particular, to shine. Shaw has always done well to avoid strikeouts and should bring that skill to the big leagues, but if he can’t find his footing, I expect to see weak contact until he figures it out. The Cubs should give Shaw plenty of time, though, so it’s a shot worth shooting late in shallow leagues.

3/14 Update: Shaw has barely struck out this Spring, though as I anticipated above, we haven’t seen much power yet. Still, he looks ready for big league action.

 

Before we go any further, here’s the Top 150 in list form for your viewing pleasure!

**Note: The Net Change column appears to be looking back to a 2024 Hitter List, apologies for any confusion!

Rank	Hitter	Position	Change
1	Shohei OhtaniT1	DH	-
2	Aaron Judge	OF	-
3	Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	-
4	José Ramírez T2	3B	-
5	Juan Soto	OF	-
6	Elly De La Cruz	3B, SS	-
7	Kyle Tucker	OF	-
8	Yordan Alvarez	OF	-
9	Gunnar Henderson	SS	-
10	Fernando Tatis Jr.	OF	-
11	Mookie Betts	2B, SS, OF	-
12	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B, 3B	-
13	Freddie Freeman T3	1B	-
14	Corbin Carroll	OF	-
15	Julio Rodríguez	OF	-
16	Ronald Acuña Jr.	OF	-
17	Austin Riley	3B	-
18	Rafael Devers	3B	-
19	Jackson Chourio	OF	-
20	Francisco Lindor	SS	-
21	Brent Rooker T4	OF	-
22	William Contreras	C	-
23	Ketel Marte	2B	-
24	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3B, OF	-
25	Jarren Duran	OF	-
26	Bryce Harper	1B	-
27	Marcell Ozuna	DH	-
28	Manny Machado	3B	-
29	Matt Olson	1B	-
30	Pete Alonso	1B	-
31	Kyle Schwarber	OF	-
32	Corey Seager T5	SS	-
33	Trea Turner	SS	-
34	Anthony Santander	OF	-
35	Adley Rutschman	C	-
36	Oneil Cruz	SS	-
37	James Wood	OF	-
38	Wyatt Langford	OF	-
39	Michael Harris II	OF	-
40	Jackson Merrill	SS, OF	-
41	Teoscar Hernández	OF	-
42	Willy Adames T6	SS	-
43	Christian Walker	1B	-
44	Jose Altuve	2B	-
45	Ozzie Albies	2B	-
46	Cal Raleigh	C	-
47	Salvador Perez	C, 1B	-
48	Yainer Diaz	C	-
49	Bryan Reynolds	OF	-
50	Josh Naylor	1B	-
51	Riley Greene	OF	-
52	Seiya Suzuki	OF	-
53	Lawrence Butler	OF	-
54	Willson Contreras	C	-
55	Junior Caminero T7	3B	-
56	Will Smith	C	-
57	Marcus Semien	2B	-
58	Brenton Doyle	OF	-
59	Luis Robert Jr.	OF	-
60	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	-
61	Ian Happ	OF	-
62	Cody Bellinger	1B, OF	+4
63	Taylor Ward	OF	-1
64	Mike Trout	OF	-1
65	CJ Abrams	SS	-1
66	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	-1
67	Nick Castellanos T8	OF	-
68	Jordan Westburg	2B, 3B	-
69	Matt McLain	2B	-
70	Triston Casas	1B	-
71	Mark Vientos	3B	-
72	Christian Yelich	OF	-
73	Jake Burger	1B, 3B	-
74	Luis Arraez	1B, 2B	-
75	Matt Chapman	3B	-
76	Randy Arozarena	OF	-
77	Steven Kwan	OF	-
78	Alex Bregman	3B	-
79	Jeremy Peña	SS	-
80	Adolis García	OF	-
81	Shea Langeliers T9	C	-
82	Luis García Jr.	2B	-
83	Alec Bohm	1B, 3B	-
84	Brandon Nimmo	OF	-
85	Royce Lewis	3B, SS	-
86	Yandy Díaz	1B	-
87	Dylan Crews	OF	-
88	Anthony Volpe	SS	+1
89	Xavier Edwards	SS	+1
90	Dansby Swanson	SS	+1
91	Eugenio Suárez	3B	+1
92	Pete Crow-Armstrong	OF	+1
93	Isaac Paredes	1B, 3B	+1
94	Jasson Domínguez	OF	+1
95	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. T10	OF	+1
96	Zach Neto	SS	+1
97	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	+1
98	Xander Bogaerts	2B, SS	+1
99	Lane Thomas	OF	+1
100	Jurickson Profar	1B, OF	+1
101	Andrés Giménez	2B	+1
102	Heliot Ramos	OF	+1
103	Kerry Carpenter	OF	+2
104	Colton Cowser	OF	+2
105	Victor Robles	OF	+2
106	George Springer	OF	+2
107	Jorge Soler T11	OF	+2
108	Bo Bichette	SS	+2
109	Bryson Stott	2B	+2
110	Gleyber Torres	2B	+2
111	Logan O’Hoppe	C	+2
112	J.T. Realmuto	C	+3
113	Tyler Stephenson	C, 1B	+3
114	Masyn Winn	SS	+3
115	Carlos Correa		+3
116	Cedric Mullins	OF	+3
117	Nolan Arenado	3B	+3
118	Josh Jung	3B	+7
119	Brice Turang	2B	+2
120	Brendan Donovan	2B, 3B, OF	+2
121	Brandon Lowe	2B	+2
122	Jonathan India	2B	+2
123	Josh Lowe	OF	+3
124	Tyler O’Neill	OF	+3
125	Luis Rengifo T12	2B, 3B	+3
126	Jung Hoo Lee	OF	+3
127	Michael Busch	1B	+3
128	Max Muncy	3B	+3
129	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	1B	+3
130	Alec Burleson	1B, OF	+3
131	JJ Bleday	OF	+3
132	Byron Buxton		+3
133	Nico Hoerner	2B, SS	+3
134	Colt Keith	2B	+3
135	Connor Norby		+3
136	Ryan McMahon	3B	+3
137	Nathaniel Lowe	1B	+3
138	Ryan Mountcastle	1B	+3
139	Jake McCarthy T13	OF	+3
140	Andrew Vaughn		+3
141	Michael Toglia	1B, OF	+3
142	Jake Cronenworth	1B, 2B	+3
143	Tommy Edman	2B, SS, OF	+3
144	Gabriel Moreno		+3
145	Ryan Jeffers	C	+3
146	Austin Wells	C	+3
147	Spencer Steer	1B, 3B, OF	-59
148	Jackson Holliday	2B	+UR
149	Rhys Hoskins	1B	+UR
150	Matt Shaw	3B	+UR

 

Tier 13 (continued)

 

151. Nick Gonzales (2B, PIT) — I’m curious to see what a full season of Nick Gonzales looks like, assuming he continues to strike out less than 20% of the time. That strikeout rate tanked his status as a prospect, and if he fixes it permanently, he could hit 15 or more home runs with 8-10 steals and a decent batting average.

 

152. Zack Gelof (2B, ATH) — 17 home runs and 25 stolen bases should be something to get excited about, but I can’t get over Gelof’s struggles with contact in the zone. Gelof’s zone contact rate was the third worst among qualified hitters, and he pairs those contact struggles with a very aggressive approach on pitches in the zone. It’s a scary combination, but to his credit, Gelof is likely to hold on to the second base job all season, and given that kind of volume, he should be able to churn out 15-18 home runs and steal 25-30 bags. I don’t think any of his other contributions will be helpful, but Gelof can provide power and speed if that’s all you want.

 

153. Lars Nootbaar (OF, STL) — I’m finally beginning to accept Nootbaar for what he is, which is a disciplined lefty who could hit over 20 home runs and steal 10 bases with a usable batting average and a strong OBP in a full, healthy season, but who will only get to 100-120 games in reality. According to our metrics, Nootbaar is above average in decision-making, contact, and power, but between the injuries and high groundball rate, he’s unlikely ever to reach his true ceiling. Still, he’s a fine outfielder who will serve you well when healthy, especially in OBP leagues.

 

154. Matt Wallner (OF, MIN) — Wallner has shown fantastic power and excellent decision-making skills for two seasons and has also shown that he struggles mightily to make contact when he chooses to swing. It’s frustrating because decisions and power are meaningless if you can’t connect. Wallner’s contact struggles are evident against all pitch types and on all counts, so it’s just an inherent weakness in his current game. If he finds a way to make more consistent contact, Wallner could be a massive breakout in 2025, but that’s a tall order, so for now, he remains a late-round flyer for power-needy rosters.

 

155. Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET) — Torkelson was a huge disappointment in 2024 after he hit 31 home runs in 2023 and probably doesn’t need to be drafted in any 12-teamers in 2025. Still, he’s just a year removed from 31 major league home runs, has an impressive pedigree, and is only 25 years old. I’m not giving up all hope, and if he were to find a way to tap into his potential he’d quickly regain his spot on the roster and be instantly relevant in fantasy, but we need to see the signs first.

3/14 Update: A slew of injuries puts Torkelson in the everyday lineup on Opening Day and I’m here for it. It was difficult to keep him out of my top 150, but he could be there as soon as the first Hitter List (which will be on March 26).

 

156. Trevor Larnach (OF, MIN) — Larnach finally played more than half a season for the first time in his career and showed some strong signs of growth, particularly in his strikeout rate (22.3%, down over 10 points from his average over the three prior seasons). Still, the Twins hid him from left-handed pitching and all signs point to that happening again in 2025 as he looks poised to platoon one of the corner outfield spots or DH with the other bench bats. If or when we see Larnach get a few consecutive starts against lefties and/or if he shows he can be competitive against them consistently, Larnach will be an interesting play for power and batting average. Until then, he’s more of a streamer.

 

157. Parker Meadows (OF, DET) — After an ugly start to 2024 that saw him sent down to Triple-A and an injury in July, Meadows got a second shot at the center field job in Detroit and did not waste the opportunity. Meadows hit .296/.340/.500 with six home runs and five steals in 47 games after his call-up at the beginning of August, eventually working his way to the leadoff role against right-handed pitching.

Meadows enters 2025 as the presumptive starting centerfielder and the leadoff man for the Tigers against righties (Gleyber may step in against lefties). If Meadows can carry the improvements he made to his swing decisions, and in particular, his approach in two-strike counts (see example below), I think he could keep that job and that spot in the lineup on his way to 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases with ratios that don’t hurt you.

3/14 Update: Meadows may get healthy just in time for Opening Day (though it’s a bit unlikely), but the injury has opened up opportunities for other players to solidify themselves in the leadoff spot to start the year and hasn’t been able to play enough to give himself a shot at everyday at-bats to open the season. A healthy Meadows will likely leadoff against righties, but whether he plays against lefties at all is still to be determined.

 

158. Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B, CIN) — If Candelario wins a starting job for the Reds, he could easily hit 25 home runs over 140 games and pile up some decent counting stats in the process. If he winds up somewhere less friendly to hitters (which is everywhere outside of Colorado) or gets a platoonmate, he’s not someone I’d draft. This ranking splits the difference, as the Reds want to give Candelario a job.

3/14 Update: Candelario has a starting job out of the gate with Steer on the IL. He’ll need to hold off the higher-upside Encarnacion-Strand, though.

 

159. Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) — Castro brings expansive eligibility and a leadoff role to your roster, and that alone is worth a spot in your queue late if you have limited room on your bench for hitters. Castro finished just inside the top-100 hitters last season in large part due to his 89 runs scored, though he’s also shown he can steal a few bases as well and is a threat to steal 20 or more bases if he gets the green light again. Even if he doesn’t, Castro’s double-digit home runs and steals, along with the leadoff job, should be enough to bring runs scored and a stable floor across multiple positions if you took one or two extra risks earlier on.

 

160. Tyler Fitzgerald (SS/OF, SFG) — Fitzgerald came out of nowhere last summer and hit 14 home runs, stole 10 bags, and put together 69 combined runs and RBI in 62 games from July 9 to the end of the season. On the one hand, the hot streak made Fitzgerald a top-30 hitter per the FanGraphs Player Rater in the second half of last season, but on the other, there are some significant holes in Fitzgerald’s profile that concern me.

The obvious one is strikeouts. Fitzgerald’s 31.7% strikeout rate is especially ugly when paired with a 6.5% walk rate, and Fitzgerald’s September strikeout rate was a whopping 37.2%. He also struggled with contact in the zone, connecting on just 78.9% of pitches he swung at that were over the plate.

Fitzgerald looks like the favorite to be the everyday second baseman by the Bay, and that role plus his defensive versatility should help him get the volume necessary to smack 20 home runs and steal close to 20 bases; however, I fear the counting stats and ratios that come with those homers and steals will hurt more than they help, making Fitzgerald only valuable for a small array of roster constructions.

 

161. Ceddanne Rafaela (2B/SS/OF, BOS) — Ceddanne Rafaela finished inside the top-100 hitters last season, but that was mostly from his first half. Rafaela finished with an absolute whimper, hitting .190/.197/.310 over his final 35 games with zero walks (he did get hit by a pitch, though) and just two home runs and two steals. The Red Sox started benching him by the end of the season, and while there’s upside for 20 home runs and 20 steals, it comes at a significant cost to ratios and with a lot of performance risk.

 

162. Jordan Walker (OF, STL) — I’ll watch Walker this spring to see if he can keep the ball off the ground. If the ground-ball rate is closer to 40% than 50%, there’s an outside chance he can finally break out and tap into the power in his bat and become a guy who can hit 25 home runs with decent ratios. If he goes back to putting the ball on the ground at too high a rate, he’ll quickly be back on the wire.

3/14 Update: Injuries have slowed him down this spring, but I’m going to keep watching those grounders. A low groundball rate is the key to a Walker breakout in 2025.

 

163. Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL) — All I said about Fitzgerald and Rafaela? Pretend I said it again here, except with less power and many more walks. I suppose there may be a bit more playing time risk as well, as if the bat falters, they could go back to Sal Frelick in center and platoon Mitchell.

 

164. Daulton Varsho (OF, TOR) — Cram together close to 20 home runs, roughly 10 steals, and a .220 batting average with mild-to-moderate counting stats. What do you get? A borderline top-150 hitter and/or Daulton Varsho. Varsho’s value is highest in deeper formats that appreciate volume as I don’t expect a return to anything like what we saw in his final year in Arizona. If you need a fourth or fifth outfielder who will play and put up decent numbers and you don’t care about the ratios he will bring, Varsho can fill that role.

 

Tier 14

 

165. Austin Hays (OF, CIN) — Hays is a free-swinging right-handed outfielder with modest pop and little speed, which would typically bury him much further down this list. That is, unless he were to get a chance to be an everyday player for the Reds and play half his games in the Coors of the East, which is precisely where we stand today. Hays could hit 16-18 home runs and drive in 60-70 runners if he manages to hold the job all season, though his propensity to go on long slumps due to his swing-heavy approach will likely land him in platoons at various points throughout the season.

 

166. Michael Conforto (OF, LAD) — 20 home runs with no speed and mediocre ratios wouldn’t usually generate even this much interest, but it turns my head a little when you’re slated to play every day for the Dodgers. Conforto may have a little competition in the form of Enrique Hernández and Chris Taylor when lefties take the mound, but even 120 starts for the Dodgers while batting sixth or seventh ought to lead to at least 130 combined runs and RBI, and those are tough numbers to pass up.

 

167. Joey Bart (C, PIT) — Bart comes into 2025 as the starting backstop for the Bucs after an excellent first season in Pittsburgh. While Bart doesn’t hit the ball exceptionally hard, his reduced strikeout and pop-up rates combined with a pull-heavy approach helps him get the most out of what he has. Bart should play somewhere between 110-120 games in Pittsburgh (most projections think it will be less than 100 but I’m a bit more bullish) and with that playing time he can put up fine numbers for a catcher. As long as the strikeouts and pop-ups stay down, Bart has a shot at being a top 12-15 catcher.

 

168. Alejandro Kirk (C, TOR) — Kirk is looking at a high workload behind the dish this season as the clear top backstop in Toronto, which oddly enough might hurt his playing time as he’ll get fewer games at DH and likely need more days off. That said, he should still get to about 400 plate appearances which is what we’d consider full-time for a catcher at this point in the draft.

I was never a believer in the power surge we saw in June of 2022, and sure enough, he has never hit seven home runs in a single month again. In fact, Kirk has never hit more than three home runs in a month besides that one magical stretch.

Kirk should be durable and put up a decent batting average for a catcher, and if you’re looking for a higher floor then he’s worth a look in the last round of your single-catcher leagues. Those in two-catcher leagues or points leagues will value Kirk’s volume and contact ability even more and should probably raise him up a tier.

 

169. Francisco Alvarez (C, NYM) — Alvarez should get a shot at 120 games this season behind the dish, and there’s plenty of power upside here if the late-season adjustments he made at the plate can carry into 2025. Alvarez got in touch with J.D. Martinez and headed off to Maven Baseball Lab to improve his mechanics and approach. While many players make these changes in the offseason, Alvarez is one I’ll be watching closely to see if these changes can lead to getting the ball up in the air more consistently as high groundball rates have suppressed his power potential. If we see those results at all this spring, it may be a sign that a big year is in store.

UPDATE: Alvarez needs surgery on his hamate bone and will be out until at least mid-May. He will be re-ranked in Tier 14.

 

170. Endy Rodríguez (C, PIT) — Rodríguez graduated from most prospects list as a highly-regarded catcher, though injuries have gotten his career off to a slow start. Endy struggled in his first tour of duty back in 2023 and missed almost all of 2024 with injury, so it’s nearly impossible to confident about a projection on his 2025. While the results were poor in 2023, he did show an ability to make decent decisions at the plate and contact ability, though the power was entirely absent.

If Endy can bring his power forward in his second shot at major league playing time, he could find his way into the top-12 catcher discussion as he should be able to find plenty of playing time at multiple positions and be a solid (if unspectacular) hitter. It’s worth a gamble as a last-round flyer in single-catcher formats if you want to go for upside instead of floor.

 

171. Keibert Ruiz (C, WSN) — Ruiz’s batting average cratered in 2024 due to many line drives turning into fly balls, and while that’s a good thing for many hitters, Ruiz does not make hard enough contact to pull it off. If he can return to his slap-hitting ways, he should hit .250 with about 15 home runs and 110-120 combined runs and RBI. Ruiz is another example of a catcher with a low ceiling and high floor, though if he keeps hitting the ball in the air he won’t be rosterable in single-catcher formats. He’s solid in points leagues, though, due to the contact skills and very low strikeout rate.

 

172. Joc Pederson (DH, TEX) — Joc will sit against lefties, mash righties, and finish the year with something like 21-23 home runs, 60-70 RBI, and a variable batting average what could be anywhere between .230 and .275 due to BABIP. Pederson’s improved walk rates over the last two seasons make him a safe play in OBP formats, but ultimately, his value is suppressed a bit due to the fact he will always sit against left-handed pitching, he doesn’t have a position (which matters more at this point than it did early on as you’re often looking at a bench bat or specific position), and his volatile decision-making on pitches out of the zone.

 

173. Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) — Marsh is not the first nor the last platooned lefty in this tier. What makes Marsh different from Pederson and Ryan O’Hearn is that he runs a bit, has a bit less power, and won’t hit over .250 due to his high strikeout rate. He’s more of a streamer in 12-teamers, but if you need a little boost across the board from your fifth outfielder and don’t care about a lower batting average or contact-driven volatility, then Marsh is your man.

 

174. Jonathan Aranda (1B/2B, TBR) — Aranda was just finding his power stroke at the end of 2024, hitting .269/.342/.552 with five home runs and four doubles in his last 20 games with an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph. That kind of power is intriguing to say the least, though how exactly Aranda gets regular playing time in Tampa is a huge unknown. He’s eligible at both first and second in Yahoo leagues (just first base everywhere else), and I love scooping him up at the end of a draft if I want to take a flyer on power. You might have to drop him within two or three weeks because the playing time isn’t there, but if he somehow carves out a role, we could be looking at 23-25 home runs with decent ratios.

 

175. Maikel Garcia (2B/3B, KCR) — Losing the leadoff spot is a big blow to Garcia’s fantasy value as it turns his runs scored total from a positive to a negative as Garcia is now likely to hit somewhere in the bottom-third of the top-heavy Kansas City lineup.

That said, Garcia should still play at third base for the Royals every day. He won’t hit double-digit home runs, he won’t score as much as he used to, and he won’t drive in many runners, but Garcia can still put a bunch of balls in play and steal 30 or more bases.

 

176. Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA) — Schanuel doesn’t have much power to speak of, but his willingness to walk and ability to slap the ball around the field should make him a useful points league player who has streamer upside in 12-teamers. Schanuel has a bit more of a platoon risk this year than he did last year thanks to the very random veteran adds made by the Angels, which is a tough pill to swallow for a player with low upside like Schanuel. He’ll outperform this rank if he plays all season, though his path to the top 100 is almost impossible to see as Schanuel just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, run fast enough, or play for a good enough offense to make much statistical noise in any specific category.

 

177. Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) — O’Hearn is a great example of why extrapolating platoon bats is a bad idea. While O’Hearn did set a new career high in home runs in his 142-game campaign with 15, it was just a single home run more than what he accomplished in 2019 and 2023 in 30 fewer games. O’Hearn will probably hit about .265 again with about 15 home runs even if he plays 20-30 fewer games than last season, which is great for streaming and for teams with deep benches that can make use of pure platoon guys.

 

178. Jo Adell (OF, LAA) — Adell looks like the guy in centerfield for the Angels, so why not take one more flyer, right? Adell improved his strikeout rate tremendously in 2024 and managed to hit 20 home runs and steal 15 bases, though he did that with a .207 batting average and .280 OBP and those 15 bases came on 25 attempts which suggests he may not get as many green lights this coming season. Adell is a lottery ticket, but at least he’s an exciting one who finally showed some fleeting improvements last season.

 

179. Evan Carter (OF, TEX) — Back issues robbed Carter of a proper sophomore campaign and may well have been the cause of his steep decline that began in May. Carter is unlikely to ever show the power we saw in his rookie season when he slugged .645 in 23 games during the regular season and .500 in 17 postseason games, but given a full, healthy season Carter should be able to hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases with modest counting stats and a .250 batting average. Whether he’s healthy is a big question, though, and I expect Carter to be on the bench for 20-30 games this season either due to injury or to prevent it.

 

Tier 15

This tier contains a group of youngsters who may or may not have a clear look at a starting role. It is incredibly difficult to stash minor leaguers in standard leagues, but at the very least, I would add several of these hitters to my watch list to start the season.

 

180. Heston Kjerstad (OF, BAL) — Kjerstad looks like he’ll start the season in the minors, but if he DOES get a spot on the roster on Opening Day, he could hit 25 home runs with decent ratios. By the time the season starts, Kjerstad will either be one or two tiers higher or one or two tiers lower.

3/14 Update: Kjerstad looks like he’ll make the major league roster, albeit in a bench role.

 

181. Otto Lopez (2B, MIA) — Otto Lopez feels like a copy of Maikel Garcia for fantasy purposes. He carries more risk for playing time and performance due to the lack of a track record and horrible supporting cast, but if you need to throw a dart at 30 steals that won’t hurt your ratios, this could be that.

 

182. Jace Jung (2B, DET) — Jung looks like the favorite to win the third base job in Detroit and his three true outcomes approach could be a feast or a famine for fantasy managers. Jace showed plus decision-making skills in his brief introduction to the majors on pitches both in and out of the zone, though his struggles with contact led to many strikeouts and weak grounders.

Given time, Jung’s uppercut swing could lead to 22-25 home run seasons with a workable batting average and strong OBP, but those types of adjustments take time and possibly more time than 2025 will allow him.

 

183. Jhonkensy Noel (OF, CLE) — Big Christmas brings a ton of power to the table, and given a full-season workload, he could easily hit 25 or even 30 home runs. The question is twofold: will he get a full season workload, and what ratios will come with those dingers if he does?

Noel’s highly aggressive approach and pull-heavy batted ball profile will likely keep the batting average and walk rates below average, though an improvement to his strikeout rate is possible if he keeps working on laying off pitches out of the zone (an area where he made some mild improvements last season, though it remained a major weakness). The magic number, I think, is about 25%, and if the strikeout rate sits around that number, then we could be looking at a value-meal version of Jake Burger.

 

184. Roman Anthony (OF, BOS) — Anthony is one of the top prospects in the game, and if he had a clear spot on the roster to start the season he’d be considerably higher on this list due to his ability to take walks and his plus to plus-plus power. The Red Sox outfield is crowded, though outside of Jarren Duran, it is short on star-caliber talent. Anthony will almost certainly start the season in the minor leagues. Still, if injuries or poor performance hamper Yoshida, Abreu, Rafaela, or Rob Refsnyder and create an open spot, Anthony will be the one we want to see get the call.

 

185. Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — The swing and miss is an obvious concern, but once Mayo gets a feel for major league pitching, his big-time pull-side power should be a significant threat in the Orioles’ lineup. Camden Yards’ new dimensions should make it less intimidating for right-handed hitters, and Mayo has the pop to hit 25 or more home runs if he starts getting the ball in the air.

Of course, the real issue for Mayo is playing time. While the Orioles talk like they want to give him a shot on the major league roster, there isn’t a starting role waiting for him with Holliday, Westburg, and Mountcastle taking up the bases and a logjam of veteran right-handers on the bench. He’ll need some luck and some strong performances in the spring and in the minors to get a shot, but if Mayo gets the call, I expect much better results than we saw last season.

 

186. Deyvison De Los Santos (1B, MIA) — De Los Santos is an aggressive power-hitter who will likely never provide much help with ratios (especially not OBP). Still, when a guy hits 40 home runs in a minor league season, you forgive some of the warts that come with it. Reports suggest De Los Santos will start the year in the minors, but seeing as Miami isn’t exactly bursting at the seams with major-league talent, he could find a way to win a job at first base or DH.

This is a player with true 30-home run potential if he can get the ball in the air (which his hyper-aggressive approach can make difficult), and I’ll be watching to see if he can find the inside track to a starting gig.

 

187. Kyle Stowers (OF, MIA) — A classic example of a lefty with power and strikeout issues. Stowers hit the ball hard in his 69 big league games last season when he connected, but his 18.1% swinging-strike rate and 75.9% zone-contact rate highlight his issues with contact. If he can get that zone-contact rate above 80%, he could post a 25 home run season, albeit with ugly ratios. The Marlins will give Stowers every opportunity to work out his problems against major league pitching, so he’s worth keeping an eye on or even taking as a flyer at the end of drafts if you’re light on pop.

 

188. Jerar Encarnación (OF, SFG) — Encarnacion demolished the ball when he was up for the Giants last season, posting a 95 mph average exit velocity and a 58.8% hard-hit rate. He struggled to get the ball in the air and almost all of his balls in the air went up the middle or the opposite way, which explains why Baseball Savant’s expected stats think he was so unlucky (those numbers don’t use batted-ball direction). If Encarnacion can get in front of the ball a little more, there could be true 30 home run power here; however, Encarnacion is a defensive liability and right-handed, which makes it hard to find a path to playing time. If injuries or a hot streak land him in the starting nine with regularity, be ready to plug him in.

 

189. Jordan Beck (OF, COL) — Power, speed, and contact issues are the story here, as it is with many hit-or-miss youngsters. Beck stands out because he plays for the Rockies and has a head start to a starting gig as the right fielder in Coors. His lackluster hit tool will make him impossible to trust on the road, but 15 home runs and 15 steals with a .245 average are in the cards if Beck stays a starter all season, and if you pick and choose your spots, you’ll get much better ratios than that (at the cost of a bench spot, of course).

 

190. TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) — Friedl was on the IL three times last season, and even when he was healthy, the performance left much to be desired. Friedl broke out in 2023, but 2024 gave some ammunition to the naysayers who pointed to Friedl’s unimpressive batted-ball metrics. As of now, Friedl is projected to lead off for the Reds, and that’s enough to make a guy interesting enough to consider with a late-round pick. However, between the injury and performance concerns, it could quickly turn into a platoon situation with Austin Hays and Stuart Fairchild ready to take his place.

 

191. Kyle Manzardo (DH, CLE) — On one hand, Manzardo showed some flashes when he rejoined the roster in September and has been, at times, considered a strong prospect.

On the other hand, there are concerns that his power won’t play at the major-league level and that Manzardo is destined to be on the wrong side of average as a hitter. I worry that the Guardians believe the latter, considering they got Carlos Santana to play first and seem happy to plug him in all season long and have him hit fourth.

Manzardo is just 24 and has a mere 156 major league plate appearances. He even showed growth during that time, so it’s too soon to give up on him, even if the Guardians don’t seem overly keen on giving Manzardo a full opportunity in 2025.

 

192. Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, TBR) — Stop me if you’ve heard this archetype before — Morel is a guy with loads of power and major contact issues. Morel improved his strikeout rate last season but still whiffed a ton in the zone and hit way too many pop-ups. If the Rays can get Morel to make better decisions more consistently, then we might be looking at a guy who hits 25 home runs and steals 10 bases while hitting .240. Otherwise, Morel will end up being a streamer for those trying to catch the comet’s tail when everything clicks for him in short intervals.

3/14 Update: Morel has looked miserable this spring and the Rays have other corner outfield options to replace him if they get tired of the strikeouts.

 

193. Jonah Bride (1B/3B, MIA) — Bride performed like a completely different hitter for the Marlins than the fringe roster guy he appeared to be for the A’s. The primary difference wasn’t that he hit the ball harder, but that Bride pulled his flies and liners almost two times as often as he had in prior seasons. Batted-ball direction is not particularly sticky from year to year across the league, though it can become a skill (see Isaac Paredes as an example). If Bride has made that type of repeatable change, he’ll be a massive bargain as a guy who can approach 20 home runs with solid ratios. He won’t be roster-worthy in mixed leagues if it was a flash in the pan.

 

194. Andrew Benintendi (OF, CHW) — You want 15 home runs, a .250 batting average, a handful of steals, and a possible platoon guy who hits third for the worst offense in baseball? Here it is. He’ll be useful in points leagues and deeper formats due to volume and a sub-20% strikeout rate, but in 12-teamers, you generally want more upside than this.

 

195. Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) — Abreu should be on the large side of a platoon in Boston’s outfield due to his struggles against same-side pitching, but he showed off significant power at times last season that might be worth chasing. Abreu isn’t a great decision-maker when facing pitches outside of the zone, and his contact ability leaves much to be desired, but his plus in-zone decision-making and power could lead to 20 home runs and 10 steals even in a platoon. Better yet, some opportunities and improvements against lefties should give Abreu a shot to win a full-time job in the outfield, as he was an excellent defender by most advanced metrics last season.

 

196. Cam Smith (3B, HOU) — Smith has broken out in a big way this Spring, and given an opportunity I think he could be an impact power hitter right out of the gate; however, therein lies the rub: the opportunity for Smith to break camp with the big league club is minimal, and even if he did, it’s hard to see a path to playing time. Walker, Paredes, and Alvarez currently occupy first base, third base, and the DH spot (respectively), and I doubt the Astros have any desire to put these guys on the bench. Smith should be on your radar and is a great use of your NA spot (if you have one), but the opportunity isn’t quite there yet.

 

197. Bo Naylor (C, CLE) — Strikeouts plagued Naylor’s first full season with the Guardians, though we did see flashes of power in the summer months. Naylor should get another year of a full catching workload and has the upside to hit 20 home runs, though he needs to recapture the plate discipline he had in 2023 to break out.  There was so much to be excited about in Naylor’s decision-making in 2023, and to his credit, it didn’t entirely fall part in 2024 (though it wasn’t all that interesting). If he can inch back towards above-average, Naylor could be a force.

 

198. Jorge Polanco (2B, SEA) — Polanco has been a bumpy ride since his impressive 33 home runs in the 2021 season, as he’s suffered from injuries and wild performance variance over the last three years. Polanco has seen his swinging-strike rate increase in four consecutive seasons,  and his performance trendline is heading in the wrong direction. He could undoubtedly hit 20 home runs given 130 games or so, and appears to have a starting job at third base in Seattle, though the ratios you’ll get are anyone’s guess.

 

199. Jacob Wilson (SS, ATH) — Wilson is a slap-hitter who won’t bring power or speed to the table, but he’ll rarely strike out and has a starting job for the A’s. If Wilson somehow finds a way to the top of the order, he could be a poor man’s Brendan Donovan or Luis Arraez, but if he’s stuck at the bottom of the A’s lineup, he’ll be just a points league fill-in or an empty ratios and volume contributor.

 

200. Thairo Estrada (2B, COL) — Estrada was disappointing hin his final year with the Giants and yet again struggled to stay healthy for an entire season. Landing with the Rockies makes Estrada mildly relevant because he’s a warm body with a starting job and a hit tool in Coors. Still, unless he finds his way to the top of the order or rediscovers his 2023 self and stays healthy, he’s more of a streamer when at home than a player I keep on my roster.

 

201. Trevor Story (SS, BOS) — Story enters 2025 with the starting shortstop gig, but between injury and declining performance, I’m just not that interested in standard leagues. In 2023 and 2024, but Story did not look like a guy who could contribute to fantasy squads above the replacement level and I am very much in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp when it comes to both Story staying on the field and putting up stats for fantasy.

3/14 Update: Story is still healthy and hitting the ball well, so he moves up. By the end of April, if these things remain true, he could find his way into the top 150.

 

Tier 16

 

202. Brooks Lee (2B/3B/SS, MIN) — Lee is a jack-of-all-tools prospect and a master of none. That’s not exactly a recipe for fantasy relevance. Still, Lee enters the 2025 season as the starting second baseman for the Twins, and in 2024, he showed that he can get his bat on anything major league pitchers can throw at him. Lee hasn’t shown that he can do much more than make contact, though, and until he does, he probably should be left to AL-only or deep points league formats.

 

203. Hyeseong Kim (2B, LAD) — Kim has the bat-to-ball skills and speed to hit 10 home runs and steal 20 bases given the opportunity, and the Dodgers seem to be prepping Kim to play all over the field. That said, it’s hard to see a path toward an everyday role with the number of utility players the Dodgers have on hand, and the transition from the KBO to the MLB can be a jarring one.

 

204. Jacob Young (OF, WSN) — Young stole 33 bases last season and hit .256. He also scored 75 runs despite hitting in the ninth spot for the Nationals and finished inside the top 120 hitters in 2024. Unfortunately, that is likely the ceiling for Young, as he does not bring much to the table with the bat.

I imagine the Nats will remain aggressive on the base paths, making Young a late-round option for steals, but I am highly skeptical that he can get nearly as many runs scored this season, making Young a low-upside steals-only contributor.

 

205. Luke Raley (1B/OF, SEA) — Raley’s aggressive approach and plus power set him up to be an uneven contributor who will give you stretches of solid performances and also unbearable cold spells, making it tough to keep him on a 12-team roster for more than a few weeks at a time. I also expect Raley to be platooned when southpaws take the mound, reducing his utility even further in shallow leagues. Still, he’ll be roster-worthy at times in most formats and should get close to 20 home runs and 10 steals, assuming he stays healthy (which is far from a given), albeit with light counting stats and sub-par ratios.

 

206. Jesús Sánchez (OF, MIA) — The Marlins love hard-swinging lefties with an aggressive approach and contact issues, don’t they? Sánchez is dealing with elbow issues right now, which is a bit unnerving, and he also struggles to get the ball in the air, making his plus power all for naught. Of course, if he finds a way to get more lift, Sánchez could be quite the steal as a 25vhome run bat who hits .250, but it’s an issue he struggled with even in the minor leagues, leaving only a faint ray of hope for it to be corrected.

 

207. Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SFG) — Yastrzemski will likely spend a few days on the IL and go in and out of a platoon, but when all is said and done, I expect him to hit about 17 home runs with up to 60 runs scored and 60 RBI and a lackluster set of ratios. That will likely put him better than this ranking at the end of the season, but I’m not all that into settling for a top 150-200 player with little chance of being better than that in the late rounds.

 

208. Tyler Soderstrom (1B, ATH) — Soderstrom has legitimate power and should get to 23-25 home runs for the A’s if he plays 140 games, albeit with a .230 batting average and questionable counting stats. If he can swing enough to keep batting fifth, he’ll earn a higher ranking than this within about a month, but his somewhat aggressive approach and propensity to hit grounders could make it tough to find any consistency.

 

209. Josh Bell (1B, WSN) — Bell will finish better than this ranking, most likely, but I don’t really care because I also know he will hit way too many grounders and spend too much time being mediocre to have an impact in 12-team leagues. If you’re in a deeper format you can move Bell up one or two tiers for his volume, but Bell is more likely to get worse than he is to get better at this stage of his career.

3/14 Update: As a reminder, Bell’s roto value is higher than his head-to-head value as the numbers will balance out in the end but you’ll see four-to-six week stretches of constant groundballs in the infield that make him easy to cut in head-to-head leagues.

 

210. Ty France (1B, MIN) —  If France is genuinely the everyday first baseman for the Twins, you might be able to squeeze 13-15 home runs, 50-60 RBI, and a .250 batting average out of him. I imagine reading that didn’t excite you, and that’s the correct response.

 

211. Luisangel Acuña (SS, NYM) — The glimpse of Acuña we saw in 2024 was a bit misleading, as I don’t think he can hit more than 10-12 home runs given a starting role, though he could steal 30 bases. Acuña hit a ton of grounders in the minors, which makes me a bit worried about what kind of long-term quality of contact he can bring to the majors. Further, he needs several things to happen to get regular playing time,. That said, if you want to dream on the speed and the small 2024 sample, you won’t get much resistance from me.

3/14 Update: I would prefer to see Acuña open the season as the second basemen for the Mets, but if nothing else, the opening due to McNeil’s injury presents another path to playing time for the second Acuña son.

 

212. Colson Montgomery (SS, CHW) — Montgomery wasn’t nearly as exciting in Triple-A last season as he was in the lower minors the year before. Still, he will be handed a starting job for the White Sox. Given the strikeout and quality of contact woes he suffered in Triple-A, I expect a rough rookie season ahead for Montgomery, though prior to his clunker in 2024 he was considered a top-20 prospect by some.

 

213. Adael Amador (2B, COL) — Amador’s prospect star has lost much of its shine after a hamate bone injury and a less-than-stellar showing in Double-A in 2024, but his hit tool and speed should be fantasy-relevant if he ever gets a shot at the second base gig in Coors. A top-end projection is 15 home runs and 20 steals with a .250 batting average if he somehow got the Rockies to forget about Estrada, though that’s not very realistic.

 

214. Andy Pages (OF, LAD) — Pages’s pop is real and he showed enough to me to prove he could hit 25 home runs one day; however, it appears the Dodgers aren’t going to let 2025 be that day. The Dodgers signed a slew of veterans to man the outfield in Conforto, Hernández, Taylor, and yet other Hernández, so several things would need to happen for Pages to get a sniff at a starting gig.

 

215. Miguel Amaya (C, CHC) — Amaya exploded in late summer last year, hitting .324/.367/.539 with five home runs and 37 combined runs and RBI across 35 games between July and August. Amaya did little else to be excited about in the other months of the season, but he’ll be the primary catcher for the Cubs, though Carson Kelly will be waiting in the wings if Amaya struggles. For some more analysis on Amaya, check out Mark Steubinger’s catcher sleeper article.

 

216. Connor Wong (C, BOS) — Wong had a ton of playing time for a catcher between 2023 and 2024, playing in 126 games both seasons. His 2024 was particularly impressive as he hit .280 and his 13 home runs while stealing eight bases. Unfortunately, the Statcast data suggests he’s doubtful to repeat that batting average or home run total, and the extra 30 starts he received at first, second, DH, and left field will likely not be available, thanks to new additions over the offseason.

 

217. Jarred Kelenic (OF, ATL) — Kelenic, if only for a moment, looked like the star we were promised in June last season, hitting six home runs with a reduced strikeout rate and a .304 average. However, the All-Star break seemed to sap his mojo, and Kelenic reverted to his high strikeout ways. Atlanta appears poised to platoon Kelenic with De La Cruz in right field this season, and there’s only so much longer we can keep a candle burning while waiting for his star to finally shine.

 

Tier 17

 

 

218. Starling Marte (OF, NYM) — Marte has played about half the season in each of his last two campaigns, and nothing we’ve seen has been much of a surprise. Counting on Marte for more than 70-90 games would be fool-hardy, but while he’s on the field he should steal bases and hit the odd home run or two without ruining your batting average, though as a short-side platoon guy he’s not someone you can think much about in weekly formats.

 

219. Kristian Campbell (2B, BOS) — The arrival of Alex Bregman and the resulting shakeup in the infield muddies the water for when we might see Campbell make his debut, but the explosive power and speed combined with his strong plate discipline makes him worth speculating on if you have the roster space to do so. Campbell would benefit from some time to work on getting the ball in the air more consistently and cutting down on the pop-ups, and if that growth comes sooner rather than later he’ll be poised for a huge breakout.

 

220. LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B/OF, SFG) — Wade Jr. doesn’t bring a lot of ceiling or excitement to fantasy lineups, but he’s currently pegged as the regular leadoff man in San Francisco and Wade Jr.’s high walk rate and ability to make contact should lead to double-digit home runs and a fair share of runs scored with a high-end OBP when he’s in the lineup.

 

221. Patrick Bailey (C, SFG) — Bailey endured an absolutely miserable stretch of performance in August, putting up an unbelievable .168 OPS. Yes, I said OPS, from a line of .063/.090/.078.  He went back to being useful in deeper formats in September, but I doubt Bailey will ever repeat the plus power he showcased in the early months of 2024. Bailey is more of a slappy hitter who should be able to hit .260 and play a ton of games (even during that ludicrously awful August, they gave him 64 plate appearances) but is unlikely to provide a whole lot else of interest.

 

222. Joey Ortiz (2B/3B/SS, MIL) — Ortiz is currently projected as the starting shortstop for the Brewers, and in deeper leagues that value volume, he’d probably be a tier or two higher than this. Ortiz is a fine player in the real world and should just barely cross the double-digit threshold in home runs, steals, and walk rate, though the batting average and counting stats are unlikely to be anything to write home about. In shallow leagues, Ortiz’s very limited ceiling makes him an injury fill-in when he’s swinging a hot bat and very little else.

 

223. J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) — Back when Crawford was leading off, there was some statistical upside to chase, but now that he’s been relegated to the bottom-third of the order, it’s hard to see Crawford as more than a low-grade volume play who you hope hits 13-14 home runs with 50 RBI and a .250 average. He’s here because he has a starting job and a good shot at 600 plate appearances, not because he’s likely to be an impact for more than a short stretch for your fantasy team.

 

224. Geraldo Perdomo (SS, ARI) — A switch-hitting singles slapper with enough speed to steal 15 bags while hitting single-digit home runs with a .250 batting average has its uses, at least until the D-Backs decide Jordan Lawlar can be the starting shortstop.

 

225. Josh Smith (3B/SS/OF, TEX) — Smith started out strong in 2024 and more or less carried that performance through the All-Star Break before hitting a wall. His plate discipline and power evaporated following the five-day layoff, and the timing was unfortunate as it was just as other youngsters in Texas were finding a groove. Smith will likely be a utilityman who plays against righties, though any injury or prolonged slump impacting almost any of the eight guys playing the field would open up more opportunities. Still, Smith’s ceiling is limited to a handful of home runs and steals with a neutral batting average, so it’s hard to get too excited unless he somehow works his way back into the top third of the lineup.

 

226. Andrew McCutchen (DH, PIT) — Old Man Cutch hit 20 home runs before hitting the IL last season with his usual double-digit walk rate. McCutchen should be in the middle of the order for the Bucs when healthy and should be effective in spurts as a fill-in back-end outfielder in fantasy who is more fun to root for than most, but more than anything else just try to enjoy what is likely the last season for one of baseball’s best dudes.

 

227. Jesse Winker (OF, NYM) — Winker proved last season that he can still pop off for a few weeks at a time against righties, though I wouldn’t count on anything like the extended run he had with the Nationals to happen again, especially not the stolen bases. Winker didn’t run a single time as a Met, and I think every major projection system is flat wrong on projecting five to seven steals. It’ll be zero or one.

 

228. Masataka Yoshida (OF, BOS) — Yoshida isn’t likely to win a starting role in Boston, but when he plays, he should be a boon for points league managers thanks to his low strikeout rate and .285 average. He ought to hit 10 home runs in his part-time gig, but Yoshida is more of a streamer and matchup play, even if he gets more playing time than expected.

 

229. Max Kepler (OF, PHI) — Kepler has taken a step forward against left-handed pitching in the last two seasons, though in fantasy, he should be viewed as a veteran platoon bat with power and an acceptable batting average. Kepler will likely be on your streaming radar when he runs hot for some extra home runs, but don’t go looking for a repeat of his 2023 season (24 home runs, 138 combined runs and RBI).

 

230. Josh Rojas (2B/3B, CWS) — Rojas finds a way to be fantasy-relevant for a month or two seemingly every season when the BABIP deities bless him with a decent run, and during those stretches, he can provide a little bit of pop and speed. I have a feeling that Rojas will find more playing time than anticipated for the White Sox due to his versatility in the infield and the fact that he won’t strike out 30% of the time like several others on the roster.

 

231. Nolan Jones (OF, COL) — There was a lot to like about Jones’s breakout in 2023 and virtually nothing to like about his performance in 2024. Jones struggled with injury and ineffectiveness in equal measure, hitting the ball into the ground far too often and being unable to pull the ball when he connected. If the injuries are the cause, he could go back to looking like a 25-20 guy with solid ratios (though the strikeout rate will always be an issue), but the question marks on Jones have persisted longer than his time in the sun.

 

232. Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, PIT) — It’s not entirely clear what role Horwitz will have in Pittsburgh when he recovers from his offseason wrist surgery, but at the very least, he should be on the big side of a platoon and spend time covering first and second base. Horwitz showed solid plate discipline and power in his short time with the Blue Jays in the second half last season, though almost all of the damage came against right-handed pitching (147 wRC+ against righties, 53 wRC+ against lefties). Given 100 games, Horwitz should post really nice ratios and double-digit home runs, though the high platoon likelihood and the fact that he’s coming off a wrist injury limits his upside.

 

233. Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — Vierling is likely the starting right fielder for the Tigers, and he’ll also fill in at first or third against lefties. While I think he can come close to replicating the 16 home runs and .735 OPS he had in 2024, it’s highly unlikely Vierling will get 104 starts hitting in the top third of the order this season. That’s the only difference I see in what to expect this season. Like many others in this tier, Vierling isn’t exciting, but he brings a bit of power, plenty of playing time, and hopefully somewhere around 70 RBI with decent ratios, which can fill a need in deeper formats.

3/14 Update: Vierling looks like he’ll miss time with a rotator cuff injury.

 

Tier 18

 

234. Ha-Seong Kim (SS, TBR) — We won’t see Kim until the summer, but we can assume that he’ll play every day when he finally takes the field. I worry that he may fall short of 10 home runs if the injury to his shoulder lingers at all, but 20 stolen bases and a .240 batting average should be there if Kim gets to 100 games. If you only have one or two IL spots, you can’t really stash him, but slap him on your watchlist once he starts getting a more definite timeline if you need an infielder and/or speed.

 

235. Gavin Lux (2B, CIN) — A move to Cincinnati might lead to two or three more home runs under the right conditions over an entire season, though Lux doesn’t currently have a set role for the Reds offense, and even if he did, he’d likely be the first to lose time if any of the other options (like Encarnacion-Strand or Noelvi Marte) were to start deserving more playing time. When active, Lux will put the ball in play and swipe a bag on occasion, but he’s a depth play at best.

 

236. Jake Fraley (OF, CIN) — A bit of pop, a bit of speed, and a sub-20% strikeout rate in Cincinnati generates a bit of value from time to time, and he’ll be on your radar at one point or another throughout the season when he’s healthy. The power took a big step back in 2024 as Fraley struggled to pull the ball in the air, but he should get some of it back based on his track record. While Fraley is a decent hitter overall, he’s going to sit against lefties and spend time on the IL to the point where he’s likely to hit the waiver wire multiple times throughout the season. When healthy and playing, though, there’s a strong floor for a player who can be acquired for free.

 

237. Jonah Heim (C, TEX) — Heim’s career year in 2023 isn’t likely to return, and neither are the starts at DH he’s picked up in the last few seasons, but there still should be quite a bit of volume and double-digit home runs with a .230 batting average and 50 RBI if that’s all you need. He’s a low-grade second catcher.

 

238. Jose Miranda (1B/3B, MIN) — Miranda’s professional career has been a roller coaster, and he enters 2025 with a fresh batch of playing time uncertainty. Miranda should get into 100-120 games this season, and while he’s playing, he could hit .270 with a couple of home runs. That said, he’s a poor defender with no real home on the diamond, and it’s hard to trust Miranda for production without knowing how the Twins might deploy him.

 

239. Tommy Pham (OF, PIT) — I have no idea why the Pirates signed a 36-year-old outfielder who doesn’t play good defense, but they did and are trying to lead him off. If that opportunity holds, he’ll generate value through volume plus whatever speed and power he has left with a batting average that won’t hurt too much, considering the price.

 

240. Hunter Goodman (C/OF, COL) — Goodman doesn’t have a clear path to regular playing time and likely won’t hit his weight, but he’s catcher-eligible, has the pop to hit 20 home runs, and plays half his games in Coors.

 

241. Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF, SEA) — Moore enters his age-32 season as a player who can still steal 20-25 bases and hit 10 home runs, though he’ll struggle to hit .200, stay healthy, or accumulate any counting stats at the bottom of Seattle’s lineup. That’s the whole story here, folks. It’s speed and positional versatility and little else.

3/14 Update: Moore has been brutal this Spring, reminding me of his mercurial nature.

 

242. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT) — After scorching the ball in 2023, Hayes brought a much more flaccid bat to 2024, losing over three ticks on his average exit velocity while also hitting many more grounders than the year prior. Hayes just turned 28 last month and is only one year removed from looking like a promising hitter, and his glove is good enough that he’ll play every day for the Bucs, but the floor is awfully low, and outside of 2023 we haven’t seen much to be excited about in Hayes’s bat.

 

243. Ernie Clement (3B/SS) — Clement has the inside track to the starting job at the hot corner in Toronto to open the season, but it’s hard to say just how long the Jays will keep the hyper-aggressive slap hitter in the starting lineup, even if Clement does bring plus defense to the field. Statistically, he’s going to hit about .260 and likely fall short of double-digits in power and speed while hitting near the bottom of the order, but volume is volume, and points leaguers in deep formats might get a bit of juice out of the low strikeout rate.

 

244. Carlos Santana (1B, CLE) — Santana returns to the Guardians for the third time, once again with a starting gig despite being nearly 39. To his credit, Santana’s patience at the plate, remaining power, and surprising durability have been enough to finish as a top-150 hitter in each of the last two seasons. In draft-and-holds or other deep formats, Santana would be two, maybe even three tiers higher just because of the volume and projectable production (especially if they used OBP), but the upside is incredibly low, and Father Time takes no prisoners. As the ranking suggests, I’ll be avoiding him in shallower formats, but he’ll likely be worth a stream here and there when the matchups are right and the offense is humming (which I don’t expect to happen often, considering just how many question marks the Guardians have in this lineup).

 

245. Brett Baty (3B, NYM) — Baty was once a top prospect in the Mets’ system, but those days have long passed as Baty has been unable to unlock his plus power due to oppressive ground-ball rates that have not really improved over time. If he somehow finds the magic needed to lift the ball, Baty could be interesting. It’s just not very likely that it happens.

3/14 Update: The injury to McNeil gives Baty a spot on the big league roster as the starting second baseman on Opening Day, and he’s looked strong in Spring Training (though the groundball rate is still too high).

 

246. Pavin Smith (1B/OF, ARI) — Smith will platoon in against righties with decent ratios and enough pop to get your attention during hot streaks, though the .270/.348/.547 line he posted in 2024 was almost certainly a mirage driven by a spiked line drive rate and a bit of luck. Sure, the pull rate was much higher than years past, but his pull rate on fly balls was more or less the same as his career rate. Platoon hitters who hit in the bottom third wouldn’t usually be ranked at all, but Smith is just good enough to be worth thinking about in deep scenarios.

 

247. Victor Scott II (OF, STL) — There was quite a bit of buzz on Scott a year ago, but unfortunately, Scott struggled mightily in both Triple-A (59 wRC+) and the majors (40 wRC+), which dumped a lot of cold water on his outlook. If Scott can hit even a little bit, he’ll get a chance to steal 20-30 bags, but until he shows St. Louis he can sustain an OBP north of .300, it’s unlikely he’ll make much of an impact despite his speed.

 

248. Jonny DeLuca (OF, TBR) — DeLuca is the favorite to start in center for the Rays, and his speed should be enough to swipe 15-20 bases. I don’t trust the power or contact ability enough to consider DeLuca an asset in any other category, though, and it’s more likely he’ll hurt you in those stats than help you, so he’s best left to AL-only formats.

 

249. Iván Herrera (C, STL) — Looking for a last-round catcher? Mark Steubinger’s recently published list of sleepers at catcher highlights Herrera as a potential option.

 

250. Luis Campusano (C, SDP) — Campusano is more of an option for points leagues than anything else due to the low strikeout rate, and the addition of Elias Díaz muddies the waters in terms of playing time. If he manages to play 80 games, he’s a capable second option or a streamer when he gets starts in Coors.

 

251. Agustín Ramírez (C, MIA) — Ramírez breaks the usual mold of right-handed power-hitting prospects in that he has kept his strikeout rates low in the minors, striking out less than 20% of the time in every season since hitting low-A. Given that the Marlins’ 26-man roster contains two of the worst offensive catchers in the game, Ramírez has a shot at winning a job out of spring training to catch and DH on off days. It’s far from a given that he’ll win the job, but if he does, he instantly becomes an interesting addition, given the volume and opportunity. Ramírez needs to find ways to get the ball in the air more consistently than he did in 2024, and if he does, he could be a 20-home run catcher who doesn’t kill your ratios.

3/14 Update: Ramírez is on the outside looking in at a roster spot, but should be on your watch list if you waited until the final rounds for a catcher.

 

252. MJ Melendez (OF, KCR) — Melendez hits the ball harder than you’d think for a guy who has never made it to 20 home runs in a season. That’s largely due to his home park being particularly tough on home runs and his aggressive approach that lends itself to bad contact. The Royals appear to be planning on platooning Melendez, so it appears the clock is ticking loudly on Melendez to turn those high exit velocities into something more than a below-average offensive output. As the rank suggests, I am not exactly betting on that happening.

 

253. Michael Massey (2B, KCR) — 15 home runs over 100-120 games sounds about right for Massey, and the .255-.260 average is a nice touch. I don’t see much of a ceiling beyond 20 home runs, and the floor could be lower if he loses any more playing time or gets buried in the order, but while he plays, he should be good enough for deep leaguers to get some value.

 

Tier 19

 

254. Danny Jansen (C, TBR) — Jansen’s extreme fly ball tendencies give him 15-17 home run upside and also make him a huge batting average drag. The batted ball metrics took a massive step backward in 2024, though, as he lost a couple ticks off the average exit velocity, four points in his barrel rate, and over eight points in his hard-hit rate, putting even more risk on an already limited profile.

 

255. Jose Siri (OF, NYM) — Siri will strike out over 35% of the time, rarely walk, bat ninth, hit below .220, and likely spend at least 30 games on the IL. If you can look past those severe flaws, though, you’ll find a guy who can hit double-digit home runs and steal double-digit bases due to his elite athleticism, and that athleticism and glove will ensure Siri gets in the lineup when he’s available. NL-only managers may appreciate his talents more than I do, as Siri’s contact issues make him notoriously streaky and difficult to predict.

 

256. Kris Bryant (1B/OF, COL) — Maybe all of the problems are health? Bryant is going to hit fourth, appears to be healthy, and is still in Colorado. That has potential value, especially if he finds his form from 2022 and early 2023. The odds of that aren’t particularly high, and Bryant was never all that good at hitting the ball hard, even in his prime, but there are sillier lottery tickets out there.

 

257. José Caballero (2B/3B/SS, TBR) — By hook or by crook, Caballero will make his way into the starting lineup 70-90 times because the Rays just find ways to do that kind of thing with good defenders, even if they can’t hit. That’s more than enough starts to steal 20 or more bases, considering he stole 44 in 139 games last season, though the counting stats will be lackluster at best, the home runs will be minimal, and the batting average will be south of .230.

 

258. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B/3B/SS, PIT) — IKF can hit .260 with a handful of home runs and double-digit steals, thanks to a bunch of volume that comes from being a versatile guy on a bad team. Batting ninth is painful, considering how thin this lineup is, but volume is volume.

 

259. Paul DeJong (SS, WSN) — There’s no chance that DeJong gets to 139 games again in 2024, but the lack of options in D.C. means that DeJong should get to about 70-80 games and hit eight to ten home runs with a miserable batting average. If he somehow finds even more time, he could even touch 20 (he hit 24 last season), though DeJong’s swing hard and miss hard skillset is not one that tends to age gracefully.

3/14 Update: DeJong seems to have won a starting job in Washington for the time being, though his contact flaws will eventually lead him to cede time to Tena.

 

260. David Hamilton (2B/SS, BOS) — Hamilton stole 33 bases in 98 games and had 15 minutes of fame early in the summer when he was swinging a hot bat and hitting second. Unlike the hyped prospect Robinson, Hamilton will already be on the 26-man roster and ready to step in the event any infielders get injured in Boston, and if that kind of window were to open up, Hamilton would be a premium speed option (though he wouldn’t help with any other category).

 

261. Yoán Moncada (3B, LAA) — Moncada had a nice little run in 2023 despite losing 70 games to injury, but unfortunately, his 2024 was even shorter (a mere 12 games) before he was again shut down. Injuries were a concern well before 2023, but at least at the moment, Moncada heads into the 2025 season with a clean bill of health and a starting job for the Angels. The current version of Moncada isn’t likely to take walks like he did in his prime, but maybe he can hit 15 home runs with a .240 average and 60 RBI if he plays 130-140 games.

 

262. Miguel Andujar (OF, ATH) — Andujar excels at making contact and has a career .273 average across 1,439 plate appearances. Unfortunately, Andujar hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough to take advantage of open opportunities for the last few seasons, and projecting more than half a season feels a bit foolhardy. Given half a season of work, Andujar would certainly hit .270-.280 again, though whether he hits double-digit home runs will depend on whether he can get the ball in the air. If an opportunity arises to be a full-time player, Andujar will be on the fantasy radar for moderate pop with that sweet, sweet batting average, but the number of question marks in terms of opportunity and health make him a bit of an afterthought on draft day.

 

263. Mike Tauchman (OF, CHW) — Tauchman looks like the current leadoff man on the South Side, and in short spurts, he’s been effective in that role due to his willingness to walk and moderate power and speed combination. Injuries and platoons have made it so that he’s never cleared 401 plate appearances in a season, and even if Tauchman does in 2025, he’d need a push to get to double-digit home runs or steals. OBP leaguers will find a bit more use out of him due to the 12.9% career walk rate, but this is more of a volume play than anything else.

3/14 Update: Tauchman has an everyday role atop the batting order thanks to a few injuries in Chicago, but he’s struggled all Spring and his upside remains quite limited.

 

264. Adrian Del Castillo (C, ARI) — Del Castillo isn’t that great defensively behind the dish, but his bat has the thunder necessary to be a relevant fantasy catcher if given a starting job. As of now, Del Castillo is third on the depth chart and will start the season in the minors, but a catcher who could hit 17-20 home runs in 100 games (he hit 30 across 130 games between Triple-A and the majors last season) is worth monitoring.

 

265. Henry Davis (C, PIT) — Davis isn’t going to keep this catcher eligibility much longer, but while he has it, he’ll be on the relevancy radar as he looks to win an outfield job in Pittsburgh. The first overall pick of the 2021 draft hasn’t found much success in the major leagues, but his overall athleticism presents enough upside that, given a job in the outfield, could lead to 17 home runs and close to ten steals over a full season. Davis will be lucky to play half a season, in truth, but the upside and catcher eligibility land him on the list.

 

266. Alex Verdugo (OF, FA) — Verdugo should hit .260 wherever he ultimately lands with double-digit homers and a large-side platoon role (if not a starting role), though as of now, we have no idea where that will be. If it’s somewhere like Pittsburgh, he’d get a chance to leadoff and potentially win a full-time role and be slightly more valuable, though it seems more likely that Verdugo lands on a slightly better team with a lesser role.

3/14 Update: I was confident Verdugo would find a team who needed a left-handed bat, but no one seems interested.

 

267. José Tena (3B, WSN) — If Tena wins the third base competition in D.C., he could put up double-digit steals and home runs with a .250 batting average and maybe even 120 combined runs and RBI. The much more likely scenario is that he shares time at the hot corner all year and isn’t consistent enough to consider, but keep an eye on the competition in deeper leagues if you need a sneaky third baseman.

3/14 Update: Tena appears headed to the minors to start the year, but keep an eye out in deeper leagues if he gets the call.

 

268. Tim Anderson (SS, LAA) — Anderson has one home run in 188 major league games over the last two seasons, though he does have 17 steals. More importantly, the Angels need someone to play shortstop until Zach Neto returns, and apparently, they chose him. There’s speed and volume here if you want it bad enough, at least for a month, and I suppose a non-zero chance Anderson returns to what he looked like in 2022, but no one seems to be counting on it.

 

269. Harrison Bader (OF, MIN) — Bader set a career high in plate appearances last season with 437 and hit 12 home runs with 17 steals, thanks to the opportunity. Bader has dealt with injuries for most of his career and I expect 2025 to be no different. When healthy, you can expect Bader to hit for a bit of pop and steal bases while doing a bit of damage to your ratios and hitting at or near the bottom of the order. On pure talent alone, Bader should be one or two tiers higher, but he’s missed at least 50 games in three of the last four seasons, tends of be quite streaky, and is on the wrong side of 30 to expect these things to reverse.

 

270. Jeff McNeil (2B, NYM) — McNeil’s .256 BABIP was unlucky, but not so unlucky that I am willing to ignore his .238 batting average—McNeil’s days as a .300 hitter are behind him, though his positional flexibility and contact skills will lead to some hot streaks that are worth rostering from time to time.

3/14 Update: McNeil will miss the first month of the season with an oblique strain. These can linger a bit for older guys like McNeil so my interest in his skillset has been reduced considerably.

 

Tier 20

 

271. Miguel Vargas (3B, CHW) — If Vargas plays well enough to get the White Sox to keep him on the field, maybe he finds a way to hit 13-15 home runs and steal 10 bases, but his unwillingness to swing the bat combined with his extreme flyball tendencies and poor quality of contact have me seeing those projections as a ceiling, not a floor.

 

272. Caleb Durbin (2B, MIL) — Durbin was acquired over the winter and brings a solid hit tool and plus speed to the Brewers, who, as it turns out, already had quite a bit of that on the roster. Durbin should start the season on the major league roster in some sort of platoon, and his ability to cover the infield and outfield gives him a shot to get into 70-80 games and steal 15 bases. The plate discipline should be a plus as well, as he’s walked more than he’s struck out in the minor leagues, though I don’t anticipate him bringing much batting average over due to his poor exit velocities.

 

273. Edouard Julien (2B, MIN) — I was in love with Julien last season at this time, but his extreme passiveness at the plate just hasn’t worked in the major leagues. If he can figure out how to turn up the dial just a little but while also dropping the strikeout rate (an extremely tall order), Julien would be an OBP force, but as of now, he feels like a plug-n-play for deep OBP leagues when dealing with infield injuries.

 

274. Wenceel Pérez (OF, DET) — Perez hit nine home runs with nine steals last season over 112 games, and while the pop and speed are mostly believable, the playing time is not. If the Tigers break camp healthy, Perez will start the season in the minors, waiting for a shot from injury, trade, or poor performance. Should he get one, modest power and speed will be there, and just enough upside to possibly hit closer to .260 than .240. It’s not exciting, but it’s honest work.

 

275. Seth Brown (1B/OF, ATH) — Poor ratios, 15 home runs, and about 50 RBI are what to expect from Brown, and that really only plays in NL-only or draft-and-hold formats. Unfortunately, a few batted ball metrics pointed the wrong way for Brown in 2024 as he wasn’t quite able to pull the ball or barrel it up as much as he did in years prior, so it’s possible those earlier numbers represent a ceiling and not a floor for the veteran cornerman.

 

276. Trey Sweeney (SS, DET) — Sweeney ought to be the starting shortstop for the Tigers, but it appears they are determined to keep Javier Báez in the mix on at least a part-time basis in the short term. Sweeney didn’t bring much with the bat last season in his first taste of major league action, but there’s 15 home run, 15 steal upside whenever Sweeney gets his first look as an everyday player, though the ratios will likely be more harmful than helpful. Unfortunately, that everyday role isn’t likely to come in 2025.

 

277. Tyler Black (DH, MIL) — Black has 15 home run, 20 steal upside in a full season with a double-digit walk rate given a starting role, but the crowded Brewers infield combined with Black coming into camp with an injury suggests it may be a while before he gets any opportunity to make that upside come true. Black’s initial small sample mostly showed he was overwhelmed by major league pitching, so the additional seasoning should do him good.

 

278. Brayan Rocchio (SS, CLE) — Rocchio has an everyday role due to his plus glove, not his bat. Rocchio will likely get 500 plate appearances, but the stats will be, at best, mediocre, and he really only has value in AL-only leagues. Current projections are much rosier on his ratios than I ever will be.

 

279. Korey Lee (C, CHW) — Lee’s upside is that of a 12-15 home run catcher who hits .220, which is what he gave us last season in much more playing time than I expect him to have this season. He does have power and is a major league catcher, making him draftable in some formats, but hopefully, you’re not the one relying on Lee to produce.

 

280. Jake Rogers (C, DET) — Everything I said about Korey Lee applies to Jake Rogers, except Jake Rogers also has an excellent mustache.

 

281. Marcelo Mayer (SS, BOS) — Mayer is buried when it comes to making the big league roster, but he has big power that could be deadly if he figures out how to make better contact and decisions against non-fastballs. The odds of Mayer making it to the big leagues in 2025 are quite low, but he’s a lot more fun and has a lot more upside than many others in this tier.

 

282. Nolan Gorman (2B, STL) — Gorman will have a scorching hot month where he clubs five to seven home runs that get people excited before they realize he has massive contact issues that make him roster poison for most of the season. Obviously, those in volume-based leagues should rank him two or three tiers higher, but I don’t really consider him a viable option on draft day in 12-14 team mixed leagues, as I expect Gorman to get platooned regularly, even when he’s not ice cold.

 

283. Noelvi Marte (3B, CIN) — Marte seems destined to open in Triple-A after a truly miserable 2024 campaign, but it’s not as though we no longer think Marte has the upside to hit 20 home runs or steal 20 bases for the Reds. I just don’t think he’ll get the opportunity to play in more than 50 games.

 

284. Blaze Alexander (2B/3B/SS, ARI) — Alexander will open the season with the Diamondbacks and can sub all over the infield. He did show a few flashes early on in 2024 that suggest there might be a fantasy-relevant player in there due to his power, but I suspect those are going to be more the exception than the norm.

 

285. Chas McCormick (OF, HOU) — McCormick was unable to recreate any of the 2023 successes in 2024, but it seems that the Astros will give him one more chance to show he can be anything like the 133 wRC+ player who hit 22 home runs and swiped 19 bases in 115 games ttwo years ago. A more realistic ceiling is 15 home runs and 15 steals with a .240 average, and even that’s a stretch as the Astros have plenty of other outfield options they can pursue as they try to get back to the playoffs.

 

286. Travis Bazzana (2B, CLE) — Bazzana was the first overall pick in 2024, and while he isn’t the top prospect of his class, he is one of the closest to the major leagues. Bazzana doesn’t have explosive power or eye-popping speed, but he does enough of everything to hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases early in his career if he gets the playing time. We almost certainly won’t see Bazzana until the second half, but when we do, he’ll instantly be a buzzy add in all formats.

 

287. Nelson Velázquez (OF, KCR) — Velazquez pummeled the ball in 2023, hitting 17 home runs in just 53 games, but mustered less than half as many in 64 games last season. Velazquez hits a ton of fly balls and likely just hit the groove of a lifetime back in 2023, but if he finds a way to start pulling close to 50% of his balls in play again, there might be a second thunderstorm on the way.

 

288. Mitch Garver (C, SEA) — Hitting .172 was a massive disappointment, but 15 home runs and 51 RBI while retaining his catcher eligibility made the season not quite a total loss. The Mariners are likely not too keen on giving Garver another 430 plate appearances in 2025, making the path to another 15 home runs a bit cloudy, but if the strikeout rate goes back to normal and Garver is able to stay healthy for a second consecutive season for the first time since 2018-2019, Garver could be a fine second catcher in 15-team leagues, I suppose.

 

289. Freddy Fermin (C, KCR) — Fermin should get close to 300 plate appearances as the backup to the invincible Sal Perez and hit for a solid batting average. The power and counting stats won’t really do anything for you, but when you’re digging this deep at catcher, being able to say anything nice at all means something.

 

290. Nick Yorke (2B, PIT) — The Pirates have a plethora of guys who play second base, and Yorke is one of them who is close to the major league roster. He got a taste of major league action at the end of last season and has an outside chance to overtake one of the spots on the bench if he shows well in the spring. Yorke doesn’t really do any one thing particularly well, but he should do just enough with the bat to be a viable NL-only option if he’s on the big league roster.

 

291. Termarr Johnson (2B, PIT) — Johnson has more upside than the previously discussed Yorke but enters camp with a foot injury and less seasoning in the high minors, meaning he’s unlikely to find much time with the Pirates in 2025. Johnson has plus power, though, and if he did make his way to the majors, he’d have more upside than any of the club’s other options at the position, especially in OBP leagues.

 

292. Richie Palacios (2B/OF, TBR) — Palacios can take walks and steal bases, but not really much else. The Rays have a lot of mouths to feed between their major and minor league roster, so even when you squint, it’s tough to see a path to another 92 games like he had last season. 50-60 feels more accurate, and that makes his contributions more marginal than anything else.

 

293. Lenyn Sosa (2B, CHW) — The White Sox love these guys who swing at everything, but that’s such a tough skillset to succeed with in the majors. Sosa looks like a starter for the White Sox right now, but his OBP will be well below .300, and even with a full season, he’ll struggle to hit 15 home runs without becoming more selective at the dish as pitchers will adapt and keep giving him junk until he stops swinging at it.

 

294. Davis Schneider (2B/OF, TOR) — Schneider is a classic example of a guy who has big power, takes walks, and can’t make contact. His outrageous 35-game sample in 2023 was cool, but his .191/.282/.343 line in 2024 is more indicative of what to expect over the long haul. Still, in short spurts, Davis can smack a few home runs and get on base.

 

295. Oswaldo Cabrera (1B/2B/3B, NYY) — Cabrera rarely barrels the ball, but he’s fairly adept at making contact and has enough speed to steal 10 bases if he were to be a starter. I think he’ll be in the mix to start in the infield at times throughout the season, but the inconsistent playing time and limited upside mean that Cabrera is more of a watchlist player in deep leagues than a draft queue guy.

 

296. Sal Frelick (MIL, OF) — Frelick enjoyed an unusual amount of playing time last season due to injuries and other roster shortcomings, but that’s unlikely to repeat itself this year. Frelick will start against most righties, but usually out of the nine-hole. Maybe he steals double-digit bases in that role with a .250 average, but that’s about it.

 

297. Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI) — Lawlar has big upside, but injuries keep holding him back as the Diamondbacks have been forced to sign more stable options to play the infield. Lawlar’s physical tools, when healthy, suggest he could hit 15-20 home runs and steal over 20 bases in peak years, but first, he needs to be healthy enough to sniff the major league roster, then he needs to unseat guys like Perdomo to get the everyday job. Lawlar won’t be able to accomplish all of that in 2025, but even baby steps would be worth watching.

 

298. Bryce Eldridge (1B, SFG) — Eldridge should get a cup of coffee at some point this season with the big league team, mostly dependent on whether he can get the strikeout rate down in Triple-A. If he does, his massive power would be a hot ticket item on waiver wires, as Eldridge has the upside to hit 25 or more home runs over an entire season as he is one of the premier power hitters in the minor leagues.

 

299. Giancarlo Stanton (DH, NYY) — Giancarlo Stanton will miss 50 80 games (or more, considering he has elbow tendonitis) and have an awful batting average and an even worse OBP, but when healthy, he’ll smack home runs and get some ribbies. You can move him up a tier if you have unlimited IL spots.

3/14 Update: With news that both of his elbows are in critical condition, we have no idea when, or to some extent, even if Giancarlo returns in 2025. There’s no bad use of an IL spot when you have unlimited IL spots, but if you have any kind of reasonable limit, he should be on the wire.

 

300. Ben Rice (1B, NYY) — I guess the Yankees are really going to try Rice as their Opening Day DH. While Rice showed mild value for a few weeks in 2024, a lot of that was because Rice was catcher-eligible, an eligibility he only carries if your league’s requirement is one appearance. There’s 20-home run power here if a manager put Rice out there every day, but it comes with a .200 batting average thanks to a mixture of contact issues and pop-ups. The OBP should be easier to stomach (.310-.320), but I have to think the Yankees are hoping anyone else can give them a reason to look elsewhere.

 

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)