Welcome to the world of fantasy baseball! And welcome to the Dynasty format, which, in my opinion, is the greatest way to play fantasy baseball! If you’re new to the Dynasty format or are a seasoned veteran, you know the importance of balancing the present and the future. Creating dynasty rankings is an imperfect science. While you try to find the balance of young and old on your own rosters, I’m doing the same in my evaluations. These rankings account for present values, future values, and doing the impossible, predicting what may happen over the next 5-10 years.
This is the pre-season version of my rankings. Each month throughout the season, I will issue a new Top 350 which will outline the risers, fallers, and include where the player was rated previously! This is the first time I’ve publicly posted my Dynasty rankings, so here goes nothing!
RISERS
Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS, BAL (Rank: 20)
It may seem like the easy way out, but have you seen this kid play? At 20 years old, Holliday is quickly becoming the talk of Major League Baseball and won’t be on the Orioles’ Opening Day roster. You probably know the story, but if not, here it comes. He is the son of ex-MLB outfielder Matt Holliday and was the 2nd overall pick in 2022. Holliday played at four levels in the minors last season, finishing with a .323/.442/.499 slash with 12 home runs, 24 steals, and 101 walks. That’s correct. Holliday walked over 100 times as a teenager last season, posting an absurd 21.1% walk rate. As a non-roster invite this spring, Holliday is batting .326 with seven extra-base hits while also learning a new position (second base) at the highest level. Did I mention he’s 20? I may be aggressive with my ranking of Holliday, possibly higher than anyone in the industry, but I promise you it’s warranted. I am a firm believer that Holliday will be a top-10 dynasty asset entering 2025.
Jarren Duran, OF, BOS (Rank: 123)
It’s wild to look back at March 25th, 2023. Jarren Duran was on the fast track down to Triple-A Worcester after being bypassed on the Opening Day roster in favor of Rob Refsnyder and Raimel Tapia. Fast forward to April 17th. Red-hot Adam Duvall had broken his wrist a week earlier in Detroit, and the Red Sox needed an outfielder. Enter Jarren Duran, who was off to a .195 start in the minors. In his season debut, Duran went 1-for-3 with a double and a stolen base and never looked back. After struggling mightily in 2022, Duran was the key cog in the Red Sox offense last season. He posted a .295/.346/.482 slash line with eight homers and 24 steals over 102 games before a toe injury ended his season. Duran enters 2024 as the everyday center fielder in Boston and has a legit shot at a 20-40 season with significant run and RBI totals.
Bailey Ober, SP, MIN (Rank: 180)
If you haven’t boarded the Ober hype train, there is still time to join the fun! The 6’9″(nice)-260 lb right-hander is rocketing up redraft boards and has made a significant leap in my rankings. Ober had a solid 2023 season, finishing 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts for the Twins. His four-seam fastball is his best pitch. It produced a 15.6% swinging-strike rate last season, plus it graded out in the 90th percentile or better in ICR, O-Swing%, whiff rate, and nearly every batted ball metric. But elite command (5.6% walk rate) and extension (7.3) are the most significant contributors to Ober’s success. If he can suppress his home runs (22 last season), Ober has the stuff to work his way inside the top 150. 2024 will be Ober’s breakout season!
FALLERS
Jacob deGrom, SP, TEX (Rank: 232)
Jacob deGrom owns my most generous ranking by far. I’m hoping that deGrom can get healthy and give us one just more 180-inning season. But, at this point, I wonder if we will ever see Jacob deGrom pitch again in the major leagues. Over the past four seasons, deGrom has thrown 254 2/3 innings. For context, Zac Gallen threw a combined (regular and postseason) 243 2/3 innings last season. Injuries have derailed this generation’s Pedro Martinez, and his 5-year/$185M contract that he signed with the Rangers could rank among the worst in MLB history.
Carlos Correa, SS, MIN (Rank: 270)
The fall of Correa in dynasty rankings has been steady for some time. The Astros’ version of Carlos Correa was often inside the top 8 at his position, specifically from 2015 to 2021. While Correa has always been a better real-life player than a fantasy asset, his batting average, power, and counting stats kept him in the fantasy conversation. Since joining the Twins, Correa has become very pedestrian. In 2023, his .230 batting average, 18 home runs, and 125 combined runs-RBIs comprised his worst statistical season since 2018, when he played only 110 games due to a back injury. Not to mention, Correa has made no attempt to steal bases. Since 2020, Correa has had the same amount of stolen bases that I do: ZERO. At this point, Correa should be exclusively rostered in AL-only leagues.
Salvador Perez, 1B/C, KCR (Rank: 305)
Aside from his outlier 2021 season (.273/48/88/121), Perez has been a constant contributor at the catcher position, providing decent batting average with good overall power and counting stats. For a period beginning in 2015 and extending through last season, Perez has been a staple inside the top 10 at his position. But as we enter 2024, it seems that Perez is progressing towards his decline. Over the past two seasons, the Royals’ backstop has seen his quality of contact metrics decrease. His average exit velocity has dipped over 3 mph, barrel rate over 3%, and HardHit rate has dropped 5%. Perez will play his age-34 season in 2024 and now sits as the 21st catcher in my dynasty rankings. The Salvy we once knew is no more.
No Jared Jones?
Really helpful. Thanks! Bouncing your rankings off Matt Heckman’s prospect rankings gives me multiple data points for managing my minor league roster.