Let the sadness commence! The 2024 regular season has five days left, and while teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, my Dynasty Top 350 is mathematically eliminated from contention. We had a great season, filled with a TON of learning and process improvement. Thank you to those of you who have faithfully read the article. Hopefully, it contributed to your success this season, next season, or future seasons. In any event, I appreciate your patience and understanding as I worked tirelessly to improve each and every month. I will be grateful if I’m back next season, but you never know what the PitcherList Dynasty team will look like in 2025. If you’re in Arizona for FPAZ, please come up and introduce yourself to our PL team, we greatly appreciate all of you! Thank you all for your time! Without any further ado, here is the final Top 350 of 2024.
Stats entering play on 9/25/2024
RISERS
Blake Snell, SP, SFG
Well, I completely missed the mark on Snell. After declaring him dead and broken in my June article, “Second-half Snell” has reared its head and dominated since the All-Star Break. In his 13 post-All-Star Break starts, ‘Snellzilla’ has a 1.31 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and a manageable 9.6% walk rate. In that same span, Snell has five starts with at least ten strikeouts, including a 15-strikeout effort against the Rockies on July 27th, giving him a second-half strikeout rate of 39.5%. His turnaround is no surprise to fantasy owners who have long experienced the roller coaster ride that is Blake Snell. I need help assigning a value to Snell, who is consistently inconsistent. When he’s going good, he’s an SP1 but when he struggles, you cringe putting him into your lineup. I could reserve a spot for him as a fixture in this article, shifting him from a riser to a faller and back again. Either way, Snell has been incredible and has re-established his value entering the offseason.
9 strikeouts for Blake Snell 🦖 pic.twitter.com/BDsHtsTOUq
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 22, 2024
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, CHC
Aside from his 100th-percentile speed and elite defensive metrics, PCA’s Statcast page is littered with shades of blue. His offensive data is very uninspiring, but when you watch PCA play, you feel the energy and excitement. Crow-Armstrong has been productive since being recalled in early June, regardless of what the metrics say. Since he started seeing regular playing time around July 1st, PCA is hitting .266 with nine homers and 12 steals, a vast improvement over his two previous stints in the Majors. He’s only 22 years old but is already the best defensive centerfielder in the game, so he will undoubtedly keep his bat in the lineup. Even if the batting average dips, PCA still projects as a 30+ stolen base producer with double-digit homers. With 600 plate appearances in the Cubs lineup, he should approach 150 runs and RBIs, making him a valuable asset in the fantasy world.
David Festa, SP, MIN
It’s easy to overlook Festa in a loaded group of rookie pitchers. His numbers pale compared to Skenes, Imanaga, Gil, or Schwellenbach. But Festa has performed much better than the surface stats indicate. Throw out his 2-6 record as the Twins have seemingly fallen off a cliff since September 1st. His 4.80 ERA is inflated by two clunkers to open his MLB career, allowing 12 ER in a two-start stretch. Since his 7ER performance against Detroit on July 3rd, Festa has a 3.60 ERA supported by a 3.29 FIP and 3.39 xFIP. His 20.6% K-BB rate is excellent for a rookie, and he’s holding hitters to a .211 average and .362 slug in those 11 starts. Festa is an imposing 6’6″ figure with an elite 7-foot extension and incredible deception, as shown below. His best pitch is his changeup, which has a 20.1% swinging strike rate and 59.7% overall contact rate. If Festa can gradually improve his command, he will have an SP2 upside in fantasy.
Connor Norby, 2B, MIA
Sometimes, all you need is a chance, and a chance is what Connor Norby needed. The 24-year-old second baseman was a highly-regarded prospect in a talent-laden Orioles farm system but ultimately was moved off his natural position by Jackson Holliday. With Norby now at third base, he was once again blocked by Coby Mayo, so the Orioles traded Norby to the Marlins, and the rest is history. Since moving to South Florida, Norby has a .264/.333/.504 slash line with seven homers and eight doubles in 31 games. Norby has been a fixture atop the Marlins’ lineup and scored 26 runs in that span. There are concerns about his strikeouts (29.6%), but Norby has a 14.7% barrel rate and has always shown at least league-average contact rates in the Minors. Now that he has an everyday role for the Marlins, Norby is a viable corner-infield option and could work into a starting 3B in most leagues.
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, HOU
The Astros’ acquisition of Kikuchi at the Trade Deadline drew some criticism as fans felt that three Top-15 organizational prospects were a lofty price tag for a pitcher with a sub-.500 career win percentage and an ERA pushing 5.00. The criticism has been silenced by five wins with an ERA of 3.00 and a 0.94 WHIP in nine starts. Kikuchi has 68 strikeouts to 13 walks and has been one of the best starters in baseball. His profile remains unchanged as he allows too much hard contact, and his home run rate is well over one per nine innings. But the Astros have unlocked something. Kikuchi has increased his slider usage by at least 10% every start. By doing so, he’s moving away from the four-seam fastball, the biggest culprit in his struggles. The Astros are no stranger to emphasizing the breaking ball, evidenced by Lance McCullers Jr. throwing 24 straight curveballs in a playoff game. It’s important to monitor where Kikuchi lands in free agency as an ideal destination would be an organization that continues to lean into his slider and provides the best version of Kikuchi that we’ve seen as a pro. He will never be an ace, but Kikuchi has the upside of a high-strikeout SP2.
Yusei Kikuchi's 7th K pic.twitter.com/OUDSpHY8w7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 7, 2024
Prospect Riser
Kumar Rocker, SP, TEX
After three years of waiting, Kumar Rocker arrived in the Major Leagues, debuting on September 12th. Rocker was limited to 64 2/3 professional innings after shoulder surgery in 2021 and Tommy John in 2023. Rocker, who famously threw a 19-strikeout no-hitter as a freshman in the Super Regionals, was the most dominant pitcher in the NCAA. He was so dominant that Rocker was drafted in the first round of the MLB Draft on two occasions (2021 & 2022). Ahead of his debut, Rocker dominated three levels of the Minors, tossing 36 2/3 innings with a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts. He had a 40.7% Whiff rate, 37.7% swinging strike rate, and 32% K-BB rate. Rocker’s fastball routinely sits in the mid-90s, and his slider has incredible depth and bite. The slider is a clear outlier and may already be the best breaking pitch in the Majors. Rocker has been decent in his first two starts, but his command has been off. After a 4.6% walk rate in the Minors, he’s sitting at 17.6% in his small MLB sample. I expect a Skenes-typed breakout in 2025 from Rocker, who has SP1 potential.
#Rangers rookie pitcher Kumar Rocker through his first two starts:
7.0 IP
2 ER (2.57 ERA)
12 Ks
24 WhiffsTrue swing and miss stuff. Lots of potential from the 24-year-old pic.twitter.com/yD1bZEA2v8
— Know Nonsense (@KnowNonsense_) September 19, 2024
FALLERS
Corbin Burnes, SP, BAL
This isn’t the first time you’ll hear this, and it won’t be the last, but Corbin Burnes is a faller in Dynasty. That theory seems weird for a guy with 15 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA, but Burnes isn’t the dominant ace we saw in Milwaukee. In the last two seasons, his strikeout rate has plummeted this year down to 22.4%, compared to 30.5% in 2022. In 2024, Burnes is averaging less than a strikeout per inning and, barring a 28-strikeout week, will finish with less than 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career. Burnes relies most on his cut fastball, which has a swinging strike rate below 10%, but on the whole, each of his offerings is missing fewer bats, except the slider. I suppose he may lean into the slider more, but it’s unlikely, given his career-high in slider usage was 20% in his rookie year, 2018. With the lack of strikeout production, Burnes cannot maintain his position in the elite tier of starting pitchers and has fallen outside the Top-20 SPs.
Clay Holmes, RP, NYY
Holmes has experienced a significant fall over the past two months after starting 2024 with 19 straight scoreless outings, resulting in 14 saves. In 31 innings since June 12th, Holmes has a 5.23 ERA with a 10% walk rate and a .258 average against. He’s blown 10 of his 25 save opportunities in that span and was removed from the closer role in early September. Holmes has never been a big strikeout pitcher; instead, he uses his sinker to pitch to contact. His sinker has allowed 45 hits this season with a .366 BABIP, and ultimately, it was to Holmes’ detriment. Holmes will finish with a career-high in saves this season, but I expect the Yankees to upgrade their closer situation in 2025.
Shane Baz, SP, TBR
I should give Baz more of a pass, considering it’s been 13 starts post-Tommy John. But, the stuff hasn’t entirely returned for Baz. Historically, his slider has been his best pitch, but he has just an 11% swinging strike rate after entering this season with a 25% career rate. On a positive note, Baz has a 13% swinging strike rate on his changeup, which is encouraging. After struggling out of the gate, Baz has been better in his last seven starts. Since mid-August, Baz has a 2.25 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The expected stats show that Baz has been more like a mid-4’s ERA pitcher, but ultimately, with his stuff, I view Baz in the low-3s. Baz is allowing tons of hard contact (90.8 average EV) and not missing as many bats as he did. With all this in mind, I’m not worried about Baz in the long run. Given the studs around him, I felt obligated to move him back, but Baz is an SP1 for me.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, MIL
Hoskins has been fine since returning from a torn ACL suffered late in Spring Training last season. After spending his entire career with the Phillies, Hoskins had a limited market and landed a two-year, $34M deal with the Brewers this offseason. Hoskins has 25 home runs for the Brew Crew, which ranks 9th among first basemen, but given his homer-friendly home park, he has underwhelmed. In addition, Hoskins has never been a pillar of batting average, but the career .247 hitter has mustered a .213 average in 2024. The one non-HR area that Hoskins thrived in was on-base percentage. His walk rate remains 10%, but his OBP is .303, a career-low mark. Lower batting average, OBP, and just 13 extra-base hits have made Hoskins a true, three-outcome hitter. There are so many well-rounded first basemen at the position that Hoskins is merely a borderline corner infield option.