Martin Sekulski’s Top 350 Dynasty Rankings v3.0

With just over 50 games played for each team this season, Major League Baseball has played 1/3 of its season. That means two things. One, the sample size is large enough to properly evaluate skill changes and trends that players are showing in a season. Second, it’s when owners in redraft can start making difficult decisions on cutting players they drafted in the first 15 rounds of their drafts. In a dynasty-focused realm, cutting players doesn’t make much sense unless they’re role-fillers during injury absences or experiencing significant skill changes that no longer warrant a roster spot. The process for cutting a Major League player who does not fit into the previously referenced group should be thorough and concise. Changes to your Minor-eligible player group can be easier depending on roster size. However, a slow start does not necessarily indicate a skills change. If the metrics look the same and the player is seemingly healthy, I encourage you to exercise patience. After all, you had a reason for acquiring that prospect in the first place, and even though the sample size is greater, you don’t give up on the talent you once loved.

Version 3.0 of my dynasty rankings reflects two independent, yet related processes. The first is a reshuffle in my prospect rankings, which has resulted in significant changes. The second is a reset of the Top 350. While the reset was not intentional, trying to review my process is ongoing and necessary to make adjustments. MLB players who have risen or fallen reflect skill changes or changes to their playing time and perceived value. Please remember minimal movement (<20 spots) is irrelevant in the grand scheme, and actual risers and fallers will have movement of more than 50 positions in either direction.

With all of the change inside the Top 350 this month, my goal is to address more player movement rather than identifying two specific players headed in opposite directions.

Stats are as of 5pm EST on 5/29/2024

RISERS

 

Jared Jones, SP, PIT

Jones continues to ascend the rankings and is making a strong case for NL Rookie of the Year and possibly the Cy Young. The Pirates’ rotation has taken a dramatic overhaul since Opening Day, adding Jones and fellow rookie Paul Skenes. The evolution of Jones from a two-pitch pitcher early in 2023 to a top-of-the-rotation stud has been incredible. He has a swinging strike rate of over 18% on three pitches, including his four-seam fastball (17.4%), which ranks in the 98th percentile. In addition, Jones has a 35.5% Whiff rate across the board and a 25.1% K-BB rate. I’ve got Jones as my SP17 and inside the top 70 overall. I can feel the heat from those who want him higher, and I completely understand.

Shota Imanaga, CHC, SP

After all the Yamamoto madness, who would have predicted that Imanaga would be the biggest star coming over from Japan? The Cubs’ southpaw is taking the baseball world by storm, pitching to a 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in nine starts. He ranks 87th percentile or higher in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xFIP, FIP, and PLV. Imanaga has outpitched his metrics, but with anticipated regression, his xERA is 2.62. Imanaga is doing it with 58% usage of his best pitch, his four-seam fastball, which has generated a 5.67 PLV. His splitter, which he throws a league-high 31.8% of the time, has a 27.8% swinging strike rate and 49.4% O-swing. As a whole, Imanaga has a 17.7% swinging strike rate, which ranks below only Jared Jones among starting pitchers. Imanaga is SP25 and 92nd overall.

 

Mason Miller, RP, OAK

This move still scares me to no end. Miller is in the Tyler Glasnow category for me. There is so much risk with Miller’s health, but there’s just as much upside. His highest innings output as a professional was 52 2/3 last season, which included 33 1/3 (9IP as a reliever) at the Major League level. Pitching exclusively as a reliever this season, Miller has been must-see TV. In 24 innings, Miller has produced a ridiculous 52.8% strikeout rate, 44.9% K-BB rate, 17.63 K/9, 23.4% swinging strike rate, and 42% CSW. All of those are in the 98th percentile or higher. His xERA is 1.18 compared to his actual 1.87. Somehow, Miller has been unlucky. IF he stays healthy, Miller has a case for RP1 and would be a clear choice if his team context was better.

 

Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B, BAL

Here to break up the pitcher love fest is surging Orioles’ infielder Jordan Westburg. I swung and missed on Westburg ahead of the 2024 season, and I’m here to make it right. My takeaway is not to overlook consistent production even when it’s not superstar-level. Westburg provides that exact profile and has had a solid rookie season. In 51 games, he’s slashing .291/.351/.508 with eight homers, five steals, and a 149 OPS+. His plate discipline could be better, namely his 31.6% chase rate. If that can improve, his walk rate (7.2%) should regress to his MiLB average of 13%, providing more opportunities for stolen bases and runs. Westburg is hitting the ball hard (92.5 mph average EV), making solid zone contact (79.3%), and playing every day for the O’s. Westburg is firmly inside the Top 150.

 

Salvador Perez, C/1B/DH, KCR

I’ve tried many times to write off Perez as a high-level fantasy asset, and he continues to prove me wrong. Salvy turned 34 on May 10th and is quietly enjoying an incredible season. In 54 games, he’s batting .322 with nine homers and 39 RBI. Perez is 2nd in batting average, fourth in RBIs, seventh in wOBA, ninth in wRC+, and 10th in offensive WAR. With a .374 BABIP, Perez will certainly regress in batting average, considering his career-high was .292 in 2013. If you take his 45% chase rate out of the picture, his Statcast page is an impressive collection of dark red. I’ve got Perez inside the Top 160 overall, which is as far as I can push him due to his age.

 

Ryan Jeffers, C, MIN

If it weren’t for the dominance of William Contreras and Sal Perez, both of these backstops would be the highlight of the catcher position. Jeffers has come out of nowhere to pace the offense for the Minnesota Twins. His ten homers are tied for the lead at the position, while he ranks second in slugging percentage and third in wOBA and wRC+. Jeffers has always had the skill set, but his previous career-high in at-bats was 286 last season. He’s already posted 163 at-bats in 2024 and is on pace for a 40-homer season. Jeffers has cooled recently, but has earned his way inside the Top 250.

 

Prospect Riser

 

Noah Schultz, SP, CHW

The 6’9″ left-hander from the White Sox organization has joined the upper echelon of pitching prospects. Schultz joined High-A Winston Salem after a quick start to his 2024. Schultz is physically imposing on the mound, using a combination of elite extension and a high-powered arsenal to dominate hitters. In ten games last season, Schultz finished with a 1.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with a 36.5% strikeout rate and 32.8% CSW. He offers three pitches with plus upside, including his mid-90s fastball, an upper-80s change, and an absolutely devastating low-80s slider. With a walk rate below 7% and a strikeout rate sitting well north of 30%, Schultz is a future fantasy stud. The lone concern with him is that the White Sox have yet to allow Schultz to pitch into the fifth inning, but he’s only thrown 54 career innings, so I’m optimistic that will change soon.

 

FALLERS

 

Oneil Cruz, SS, PIT

As a fantasy community, our infatuation with the shiny new toy and its exciting effects on our roster can be debilitating. Oneil Cruz was that shiny toy following his debut in 2022 and has continued to be overvalued in dynasty circles since. Cruz is a Statcast darling, generating massive exit velocities and exciting fans with his power. In his most recent feat, Cruz became the first player in the Statcast era to produce three hits over 115mph in the same game. The problem with Cruz is multi-faceted. Injuries have hampered his exposure, and he’s managed just 143 games over three seasons. His best output was a 17 homer-10 steal campaign across 87 games in 2022, which gave hope that he could become a superstar. The biggest problem is his inability to make consistent contact. Cruz can provide as much power as anyone in the game, but a 34.1% career strikeout rate is a problem. It’s the same issue that Elly De La Cruz experiences, but Elly has two distinct advantages. One, he plays at Great American Ballpark. The other is that Elly is going to steal 75+ bases someday, and likely soon. While Oneil Cruz has a 40-homer upside, he becomes a one-trick pony with a sub-.240 batting average and limited counting stats in a marginal Pirates’ offense. Cruz is a borderline Top 100 player, but I don’t see the upside of a megastar like some hoped.

 

Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, PIT

It seems like Spring Training comes with promises of swing changes, new pitches, and physical improvements from today’s stars. Once the season begins, as Dennis Green would say, “They are who we thought they were”. Like clockwork, Ke’Bryan Hayes comes into camp with a newfound ability to tap into his power every season. In his brief three-year career, the 27-year-old has had no problem hitting the ball hard (91 mph average EV) but has struggled to find the barrel and lift the ball consistently. His 2023 season was an outlier as Hayes had a career-high 7.9% barrel rate and a 13.2-degree launch angle, more than doubling his previous best. The result was another career-best, 15 home runs. I bought into the hype, boldly predicting that Hayes would finally reach his potential and post a 20-20 season for the first time. Instead, he has negatively regressed and appears to have lost that brief glimpse of hope. Even though Hayes can hit for a solid average and provide double-digit steals, I’m skeptical he’ll ever eclipse his 15-homer season, which ultimately limits his upside and value in Dynasty.

 

Nolan Gorman, 2B, STL

Gorman made a wholesale diet change this offseason after a back injury cost him nearly 40 games in 2023. Despite a career-high 27 home runs last season, Gorman wanted to become more flexible and athletic while reducing the stress in his back. While his back is a definite problem, the underlying issue in Gorman’s profile is a career 33% strikeout rate. This season, he’s striking out a clip just below 36%, and even with an above-average walk rate, Gorman isn’t carrying the allure he once had. He doesn’t hit for average, doesn’t run, and his counting stats are below average. Essentially, he has become a poor man’s Adam Dunn, only without the 40-home run upside. Gorman’s value is limited in Dynasty formats unless a significant skill change alters his profile.

 

Corbin Carroll, OF, ARZ

I’m going to touch on it because everyone is talking about it. Carroll was incredible in his rookie season, slashing .285/.362/.506 with 25 homers and 54 steals. The reigning National League ROY has struggled mightily early in 2024. His .191 average is discouraging, but more so are the two home runs and eight steals. There are two theories. The first is a sophomore slump. The thought is that teams have more data and video on players and can make adjustments before the player can. With 52 games played, that’s both viable and likely. However, a dark cloud hangs over Carroll. That cloud is a nagging shoulder that has been problematic since he underwent posterior capsule avulsion surgery in 2021. Shoulder discomfort resurfaced in June 2023, although Carroll hit .280 with eight homers following the injury. The worry comes from underlying numbers being down this season, including a three mph dip in average exit velocity, an 8% drop in hard-hit rate, and a 2% drop in barrel rate. Those are discouraging figures for a 23-year-old who dominated the Majors last season. Carroll’s drop in the rankings is a combination of concern over the unknown and players with a longer track record of success continuing on that path. I anticipate a bounce back from Carroll, and expect him to regain his position in the Top 10.

 

Gabriel Moreno, C, ARI/ Bo Naylor, C, CLE

Two young catchers are experiencing a value dip in 2024. Gabriel Moreno’s profile is tied to elite plate discipline and ability to hit for a high batting average, although his power is middling. Early on, Moreno is showing off his plate skills with a 12.0% walk rate compared to a 14% K rate. But with one home run, the lack of power remains prohibitive to his overall value in Dynasty formats. Comparable players at the catcher position offer significant power upside compared to Moreno. Despite his elite on-base skills and elevated batting average, it’s hard to justify his ranking over them. For Naylor, the start of 2024 has been a struggle. Through 42 games, Naylor is batting .177 with three homers and one steal, but his 35.9% strikeout rate is alarming. When he debuted in 2023, Naylor had a reasonable 23% K-rate in a 67-game sample and displayed an exciting power-speed combination that rarely comes from catchers. Ultimately, I still believe in the profile for Naylor, but an adjustment to his overall ranking was necessary until we can see a better version of Bo.

 

Prospect Faller

 

Ricky Tiedemann, SP, TOR

Tiedemann is an exciting young arm and may become a top-of-the-rotation stud one day. But coming into 2024, I had significant concerns over his health profile after numerous injuries throughout his career. In mid-April, the Blue Jays shut Tiedemann down after discovering an ulnar nerve issue in his left elbow. His elbow injury adds another red flag after he missed significant time in 2023 with a left shoulder injury. When he’s healthy, Tiedemann is one of the best arms in the Minor Leagues. But there comes a point (similar to Mason Miller) where you have to assess how much risk you’re willing to assume, and for Dynasty owners, the risk may be too great for the reward.