Martin Sekulski’s Top 350 Dynasty Rankings v4.0

In less than one month we’ll be at the All-Star break, the “halfway” point of the season, even though most teams will have played at least 90 games. Also, the trade deadline is approaching, and Dynasty owners have a few options.

1) Go all-in for a Championship: For your Dynasty leagues, this is your chance to push your chips into the middle of the table and acquire those players that will put you over the top. Whether it’s that big bat to bolster your lineup or adding that ace to anchor your rotation, tough decisions will alter the course of your future.

2) Stay put: If you’re on the bubble, you can make a few smaller, less impactful moves, like adding an extra outfielder or filling an open spot created by injury. These moves will help in the short term without jeopardizing your future.

3) Rebuild: If you’re a cellar dweller, maybe it’s time to sell off aging assets and get younger in a big way. You know your team isn’t going anywhere now and may not compete anytime soon. Depending on your competitive window, you can tear down and rebuild, or reload for a push in 2025.

In any event, my goal is to provide rankings that assess present and future value while helping to avoid bad decisions that can hurt your franchise in the long run. Here is the latest look at the risers and fallers in the Dynasty world ahead of the stretch run in 2024.

In my last update, I changed the format to address more players, and I liked that version much better. Hopefully, the readers agree, but if you do NOT, please comment or let our Dynasty team know.

PLAYER NOTE I completely overlooked and omitted Reynaldo López for the last two versions of this article. It was an oops on my part, but he was a Top 350 for me since early in 2024.

 

RISERS

 

Anthony Volpe, SS, NYY

 

Volpe had an inconsistent rookie season in 2023 but finished with a 20-20 season and his first Gold Glove. This season, the 23-year-old shortstop has taken his offensive game to the next level. Specifically, Volpe has gained 60 points in batting average, raising it to .270 on the season. Behind that increase has been a 5% jump in his in-zone contact rate, which sits just under 88%. In addition, his strikeout rate is down 7% from last season. The quality of contact metrics don’t love Volpe or his power potential, but playing in Yankee Stadium gives him a boost while leading off for a dynamic offense will help his counting stats significantly. Volpe is already seven runs short of his total from last season and is on pace to push 75 RBIs. With the potential to score 100 runs, Volpe is looking at a .260-20-40-100-75 season, which is very valuable regardless of format.

If Volpe can maintain the gains with his hit tool, his speed will play up even more. Any boost in power would jump Volpe even higher. I’ve got Volpe firmly inside my top 75 for dynasty assets, and he’s trending up.

 

Alec Bohm, 3B, PHI

 

My boss and friend Matt Heckman loves to chirp me, especially about his beloved Phillies. After the most recent Top 350, we discussed Alec Bohm, his long-term value, and his spot in my rankings. I’m not giving in to Matt just because he’s the boss, but he’s not wrong to say that Bohm is making a jump in Dynasty. Bohm gets lost in the shuffle of the star-studded Phillies lineup but has provided incredible fantasy value over the last three seasons. Bohm hits for a high average, offers power and counting stats, and maintains multi-position eligibility, including third base, which continues to be a wasteland beyond the top 15.

This season, Bohm is on pace for 19 homers, 80 runs scored, 135 RBIs (whoa), and should finish with a batting average of around .280. His expected stats support his actual stats, which is encouraging, specifically his .313 xBA (.309 actual), .375 xWOBA (same as actual), and .498 xSLB (.500 actual). Bohm’s 13.5% strikeout rate, 46.5% hard-hit rate, and average and max EVs are the highest of his career. In my mind, I think I overlooked Bohm because I didn’t believe in the changes he made pre-2022, but now I’ve got a three-year sample that proves me wrong (and makes Matt right).

 

Luis Gil, SP, NYY

 

Admittedly, I was slow to come around on Gil. For a long time, Gil was considered on the cusp of greatness and was always the “next man up” in New York. Gil debuted in the Majors in 2021 and made seven starts between ’21 and ’22. In those starts, Gil pitched to a 3.78 ERA with a 14% walk rate, not too far off from his 13% career walk rate in the Minors. The stuff was never in doubt, but would Gil improve his command and let his talent show?

The answer is yes and no. Gil has had incredible results this season, producing nine wins with a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Control continues to be a concern with his 12.4% walk rate, but he’s limited damage with a 78% strand rate and cutting his home runs in half. His arsenal is different, too, as he’s leaning into his changeup more (29% usage) and slider less (16.2% usage). The changeup, which has historically been good for Gil, has yielded a 26.8% CSW and a .184 average against. The 5-mph variance from his four-seam is still marginal, but his 35% iLoc is in the 94th percentile in baseball, limiting hard contact.

I’m still so-so on Gil, but it’s hard to argue with his success this season. Over a seven-start span, which included a 14-strikeout effort, Gil allowed 1 ER or fewer, the first pitcher to do that in Yankees’ history. His place in the rotation has solidified, but concerns over innings limits remain. Gil has never pitched more than 96 innings in a season and has already thrown 81 1/3, entering his start on June 27th. I think Gil has the potential to be a top-25 starting pitcher in time, but there needs to be an improvement in his control and sustained success. For now, Gil is inside my top 200 but I expect regression for the remainder of the season due to workload issues.

 

Joey Ortiz, INF, MIL

 

I was among the people who poo-pooed the Brewers’ return on the Corbin Burnes‘ trade. The haul of Joey Ortiz and DL Hall seemed too light for a Cy Young winner and top-of-the-rotation arm. I’m still not a DL Hall guy, but Ortiz is growing on me. I’ve mentioned this before, but Ortiz was an afterthought in the Orioles’ organization, with Holliday, Mayo, and Norby garnering the attention. Ortiz went about his business, playing elite defense and providing decent offensive production. My issue with Ortiz and his skill was his ability to perform at the plate consistently. In the Minors, he averaged .285 with eight homers and average counting stats in his four seasons. The positive was that his hit tool and approach were above average, generating a sub-20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate, which resulted in a .357 career OBP. His power and speed were always in question, and when compared to the others in the organization, he paled in comparison.

When Ortiz was traded to the Brewers in December, all signs pointed to him getting regular run in the infield. The Brewers dabbled with Sal Frelick at third base, but Ortiz has performed so well that he’s now the everyday 3B. In his rookie season, Ortiz slashes .275/.380/.455 with seven homers and five steals in 211 at-bats. His strikeout rate is down to 16%, and his walk rate is among the best in the league. Ortiz has a near-elite 91.5% zone contact rate, and he’s translated his elite defensive performance to the big leagues. Simply stated, Joey Ortiz is the same player he’s always been and is a viable asset in Dynasty. Ortiz has multi-position eligibility in most leagues but will likely be 3B-only eligible next season. Ortiz should be deployed as a corner infield option or low-end 3B play.

 

Cristopher Sánchez, SP, PHI

 

The Phillies have transformed Cristopher Sánchez into not only a really good Major League starter but also, a valuable fantasy asset. Sanchez was originally a Rays’ prospect when they signed him as a 16-year-old in 2014. After six seasons with their organization, Sanchez signed a $570k contract to join the Phillies ahead of 2021. In two MiLB seasons with the Phillies, Sanchez made 31 starts with a 3.51 ERA at AAA Lehigh Valley. Things changed for Sanchez in June 2023 when he was given an extended look as a starter for the Phillies. He finished the season making 18 starts, pitching to a 3.44 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Sanchez was a sneaky pickup late in 2023 for fantasy teams with an uncertainty of what his role would be entering this season. The 27-year-old southpaw has been equally good this season, going 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA in 15 starts. Sanchez relies on a three-pitch mix with his changeup being the best offering. He’s throwing it 32% of the time which ranks in the 93rd percentile for usage. It’s generated a 21.2% swinging strike rate, 30% CSW, and 43% chase rate, making it one of the best in the game. Sanchez is not a high-upside strikeout guy, but he generally pitches deep into games. In addition, playing on a good Phillies team gives him ample opportunities for wins. The Phillies extended Sanchez with a 4-year deal earlier this month, and he’s locked in as the team’s #4 starter moving forward. I’ve added Sanchez inside my top 275 and feel confident using him as a 4/5 starter in any league.

 

Luis Severino, SP, NYM

 

In 2017 and 2018, Luis Severino was as good as it gets for a starting pitcher, winning 33 games with a 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 22.1% K-B rate. In that span, he ranked in the Top 10 in nearly all statistical categories, including wins, xFIP, K/9, and WAR. Severino was a clear SP1 and a high-end fantasy starter. Then, the injury bug bit Severino in a bad way. He missed 2019 with a lat strain, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, and has made no more than 19 starts each season since 2022 due to other ailments. Things looked bleak for Severino following a dreadful 2023 that saw him finish with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP for the Yankees.

Severino got another chance in the Big Apple, joining the Mets in November 2023 on a 1-year deal. In his 15 starts, Severino is 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Let’s be clear. Luis Severino is not the same pitcher he used to be. In his glory days, he was mainly a fastball and slider pitcher, with the latter yielding a Whiff rate well over 35%. The four-seam fastball has regained velocity over the past two seasons but is still down two ticks from 2018. The current version is a fastball, sinker, and a newly formed sweeper. All three pitches have decent bat-missing ability, but as mentioned, the strikeout production has not been there at this point. But at age 30, in a climate that has seen so many top arms go down to injury, a seemingly healthy Severino is a welcome sight.

 

PROSPECT RISER

 

Felnin Celesten, SS, SEA

When a Major League organization spends $4.7M on a 17-year-old shortstop, it’s probably for good reason. That was the price tag associated with Felnin Celesten when the Mariners signed the Dominican-born shortstop in January 2023. Although the Padres signed Ethan Salas for a higher bonus that same year, Celesten was considered the best player in the International Class. He has shown plus tools across the board and has dominated the Arizona Complex League early this season. In 32 games, he’s hitting .341 with three homers and five steals. At 6’1, and 180lbs, Celesten has room to develop further, and added power could come with it. It would not surprise me to see Celesten jump into the Top 10 prospects over the next 12 months.

 

FALLERS

 

Edouard Julien, 2B, MIN

 

Julien gave us a glimpse of greatness in 2023, mashing 16 homers in 109 games while playing part-time for the Twins. Despite not playing against lefties, Julien offered elite on-base skills and exciting power rarely found at the second-base position. Julien’s power was on full display as he hit seven homers in April and May, but his strikeout woes caught up to him. Before his demotion to AAA in June, Julien had a 39.1% strikeout rate and .207/.309/.428 slash line in his first 58 games. Even with Julien’s 100th percentile chase rate and 92nd percentile walk rate, things weren’t going well for the 25-year-old. Since the demotion, Julien has continued to struggle. In 20 games at Triple-A, he’s hitting .234 with two homers and a 35.1% strikeout rate. The Twins are utilizing Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer at second base, likely until top prospects Brooks Lee (and ultimately Luke Keascahall) are ready to contribute. I’m not sure how Julien fits into the future in Minnesota, but until he can improve his swing-and-miss issue, he should get comfortable in the Minors.

 

Eloy Jiménez, DH/OF, CHW

 

There isn’t much left to say about White Sox outfielder/designated hitter Eloy Jiménez. When he’s healthy, Eloy is a fantastic source of power and batting average, even playing for the lowly White Sox. He played 120 games last season, batting .272 with 18 homers, although his counting stats were soft. But aside from that, Eloy has yet to reach 85 games in three of his last four seasons. Most of his ailments seem to be leg-related, including numerous foot, groin, and ankle injuries. The most recent IL stint was hamstring-related, which cost him over a month from late May to this week. Eloy will inevitably miss more time this season, and he’s approaching unrosterable status in Dynasty.

 

Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY

 

Torres has been an interesting player for a long time in fantasy. The upside is there, as Torres has hit 20 or more home runs in four of his last five seasons (2020 excluded) with decent batting average and above-average counting stats. His 38-homer season in 2021 was an outlier, largely funded by terrible Orioles’ pitching. But in general, Torres has been consistent at his position. This season has been frustrating for Torres owners as he’s batting just .215 with seven homers. Torres has regressed to his old self with his plate skills, striking out 23.9% of the time after a sub-15% rate last season. His in-zone contact and overall contact rate have both dropped 5%. When he is making contact, the quality metrics are poor. Torres’ barrel rate, average EV, max EV, and Hard Hit rate are well below his career average. Although no formal statements have been made, there are lingering injury concerns for Torres after a hit-by-pitch on his hand earlier this season. The hand could be the underlying issue to his struggles, although Torres is known to endure extended slumps.

 

Blake Snell, SP, SFG

 

2023 was the second iteration of the really lucky version of Blake Snell. Yes, I said lucky. Snell was the 2023 NL Cy Young winner, finishing 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA despite issuing five walks-per-nine, the most ever for a Cy Young winner. Regression was inevitable. In the Majors, you cannot walk that many hitters and expect to maintain an 86.7% strand rate (see Cease, Dylan). Snell got paid by the Giants this offseason and has turned back into a pumpkin. In six starts, Snell has a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP and has missed time due to injury. His strand rate is down to 50%, which plays poorly with an 11.8% walk rate. In all six starts, he’s yet to get through five innings, which is typical of Snell and his inability to work efficiently and deep into games. Snell is currently outside of my Top 150 and continues to slide.

 

Justin Turner, 1B/3B, TOR

 

Very rarely do you see a 39-year-old player ranking in Dynasty. The exceptions are the Freddie Freeman and David Ortiz types who continued to mash into their late 30s. But Justin Turner had a fantastic 2023 season for the Red Sox, hitting .276 with 23 homers and 96 RBIs and earned his way into the Top 350. Producing that well in a mediocre lineup gave me high hopes after Turner signed with the high-upside Blue Jays this offseason. My rationale was that Turner had just crushed last season and was joining a lineup with Bo and Vlad in their prime. Things have not gone as expected. Although Turner’s outstanding plate skills have remained, he’s hitting .243 with five homers. Since June 1st, Turner’s batting .321, which has likely saved his roster spot in Toronto. Given his age and struggles, Turner has left the Top 350 and will eternally remain off this list. But it was a good run!

 

PROSPECT FALLER

 

Chase DeLauter, OF, CLE

 

DeLauter has been the apple of my eye since he was selected in the 2022 Draft. His ability to drive the ball to all fields, hit for power and average, and get on base at an excellent rate makes for an exciting fantasy asset. Prolonged absences due to injury do not. Dating back to his days at James Madison, DeLauter has struggled with foot injuries, and those continue. In two seasons, he has 276 career at-bats and only 62 this season. For a 22-year-old player who needs that development time, the injury concern is giving me pause on the talented outfielder.