Martin Sekulski’s Top 350 Dynasty Rankings v6.0

Ahead of this month’s article, I took a deep dive into my Top 200 Prospect rankings, and a significant reshuffle ensued. The landscape of the dynasty rankings changes so much every month, but when you make wholesale changes like adding a new draft class plus graduating players, a prospect overhaul gets even more detailed. As a result, the dynasty rankings undergoes a sizeable shift as well. When reviewing the Top 350, please consider how a small prospect change can be so impactful. For example, a player like Kyle Manzardo fell nearly 100 spots in the Top 350, but his prospect ranking dropped only eight spots, from 24 to 32 overall. It’s not a huge move, but when you’re factoring MLB players into the mix, a minimal shift looks like a massive fall in Dynasty.

Stats entering play on 8/27/2024

 

RISERS

Jackson Merrill, OF, SDP

I’m running out of superlatives for Padres’ rookie outfielder Jackson Merrill. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Merrill as a riser in Dynasty, and it won’t be the last. Merrill, a 21-year-old rookie, has burst onto the scene this season, playing outstanding defense in a new position (CF), in addition to having a knack for clutch hitting. In my opinion, Merrill should be the runaway winner for National League Rookie of the Year and has an outside chance to become the first rookie to win a batting title since Ichiro in 2021. Looking at the surface stats, Merrill is on pace to exceed 20 homers with 15 steals, while also posting a batting average that flirts with .300. Beyond that, he has a 10.6% barrel rate, 43.6% hard-hit rate, a minimal strikeout rate (17.9%), and has an xWOBA, xBA, and xSLG all in the 88th percentile or higher. What you can’t see is his five home runs in the eighth inning or later, that have either tied the game or taken the lead. The ability to hit in clutch cannot be taught. Two additional things stand out for Merrill. The first is a miniscule 4.5% walk rate, and he chases nearly 36% of the time. His plate discipline is a work in progress, but it is exciting to see how great Jackson Merrill will be.

 

Dylan Cease, SP, SDP

This is my public apology to Dylan Cease. I’m sorry for doubting your talents and I’m here to say that you are an ace. I was fairly confident that the 2022 edition of Dylan Cease was a career outlier. After all, who can sustain a walk rate north of 10% and an 82% strand rate throughout their career? Cough Blake Snell Cough In any event, Cease has made incredible strides this season with the Padres. The stuff has never been a question for Cease, as his four-seam fastball and slider routinely grade above average with whiff rates that make grown men cry. The problem was his control and the ability to harness his arsenal. Cease will never be an elite strike-thrower, but this season he’s at 65.2% which is high enough for his bat-missing ability to shine. Among qualified starters, Cease ranks 2nd in strikeouts, 4th in K/9, 5th in strikeout rate, 7th in SIERA, 10th in xFIP, and most impressive, 8th in K-BB rate. For perspective, his 23% K-BB rate is up 4 points over his standout season, 19.1% in 2022. If Cease continues to throw strikes at this rate, he may jump into the Top 10 among starting pitchers.

 

Hunter Greene, SP, CIN

It seems like Greene has been on the cusp of “very goodness” for the past two seasons, but things never matched up. The obvious downside of Greene is that his home “small park” is in Cincinnati, where good pitching goes to die. But the upside is a high-strikeout, lowish-ERA stud on a competitive team with the arsenal to overcome a ballpark deficiency. Everything has come together this season for Greene. His fastball remains an elite producer of velocity (97.6 mph avg) and swinging strike rate (13.5%). His best secondary pitch, his slider, has solidified across the board including a 13% improvement in hard-hit rate while maintaining a near-40% whiff rate. Greene has also improved in home run suppression, dropping from 1.5 HR-per-9 last season to .70 this year. The main concern is whether his 2.83 ERA is sustainable given his profile. His BABIP is .244 this season, down from .342 last season. With regression to the mean, I think Greene is more likely a mid-3’s ERA in the future with the ability to lead the league in strikeouts. The real test for Greene is continuing to capitalize on the road while keeping afloat at home.

 

Bailey Ober, SP, MIN

Nothing hits like a 1 1/3 IP, 8 ER line to start your season, but that’s what Bailey Ober has been working to overcome since March. The 6’9″ right-hander entered 2024 with high hopes after a breakout season in 2023. Fortunately for Ober, the season-opening debacle was short-lived as he pitched to a 1.48 ERA in April before struggling through May. Since June 1st, everything has turned around and Ober has been one of the most dominant pitchers over the past two months. To date, Ober is 12-6 with a 4.06ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his 25 starts. With his height advantage, Ober has an elite extension (7.3 ft) and uses that to parlay his low-powered arsenal into success. Of his five pitches, four have a chase rate of over 28%. Among them is his changeup, which has generated a 47.8% O-swing and 23.8% swinging strike rate. Even with a career-worst 6.2% walk rate this season, Ober is experiencing his best season and is well-positioned as a Top 40 starting pitcher moving forward.

Writer’s Note The write-up on Ober was completed before his clunker on August 26th. In that start, Ober allowed 9 ER to the Braves because of course he did. I still love Ober, but this was really poor timing

 

Brandon Lowe, 2B, TBR

You know those players that we wish could stay healthy? You know the guys; Mike Trout, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Robert Jr., Royce Lewis, and Brandon Lowe. It may seem like Lowe is an outlier in this group, but in reality, the Rays’ second baseman is a top-tier option when he’s been on the field. Lowe had a monster season in 2021 when he hit 39 homers with 99 RBI and 97 runs scored but injuries have limited Lowe since. In two seasons since his breakout season, Lowe has missed 150 games due to various ailments, most notably back and neck issues that have slowed his career. After a 21-homer season in 2023, Lowe has mashed 16 in 82 games this year, albeit with a .241 average. While his batting average can be problematic, Lowe offers a 30-homer upside, a rarity at second base.

 

Luis Garcia Jr., 2B, WSH

Speaking of second base, the re-emergence of Luis Garcia has been a breath of fresh air to the position. The youngster was a mid-tier option in ’21-’22, mainly for those seeking a high batting average floor. Amid a significant slump, Garcia was demoted to Triple-A in early August 2023. He had a respectable .266 average with nine homers at the time of his demotion, but he fell off the fantasy radar. He rebounded quickly and currently ranks as the third-best second baseman according to the Razzball player-rater in 2024. Garcia has career-highs in homers (15) and steals (20) and has flipped the script on his fantasy outlook. After two seasons of marginal batted ball data, Garcia has improved his quality of contact adding a little thump to go with his bat-to-ball skills. If you couple that with an opportunity to consistently hit in the middle of the improving Nationals’ lineup, Garcia is one of the biggest dynasty risers this season.

 

Prospect Riser

Sebastian Walcott, SS, TEX

Walcott is the top prospect in the Rangers organization and has the talent to become the #1 overall prospect by mid-2025. In 103 games at High-A Hickory, Walcott has a .255/.342/.422 slash line with ten homers and 22 steals, despite being the youngest player at that level. The 6’4″ shortstop has a solid frame with room for growth and is being praised for his blend of power and speed. Walcott has improved his K-rate by 5% this season but is still striking out at a 27% clip. As the plate skills continue to improve, Walcott has nowhere to go but up.

 

FALLERS

Marcus Semien, 2B, TEX

The disappointing performance of Marcus Semien has been overlooked this season. He is one of those “set it and forget it” players in your fantasy lineups that you never worry about unless they hit the IL, which Semien never does. In fact, the Rangers’ second baseman played in 859 of 869 games dating back to the start of the 2018 season as a member of the A’s, making him the closest thing to a modern-day Cal Ripken. Although his metrics haven’t changed much, his .244 average is his worst since the 2020 COVID season and he’s on pace for just 23 homers, his lowest since 2018. He’s also stopped running (4 SB on 6 attempts), which wasn’t a huge part of his game, but he’s averaged 18 steals over the last three seasons and that’s an added value to his profile. This may be the start of the decline for Semien, who turns 34 next month, or it could be the World Series hangover. Either way, things haven’t gone well for Semien, who is in year three of a 7-year/$175M deal with Texas and has been the model of consistency at the position for fantasy.

 

Zac Gallen, SP, ARI

It’s strange putting a 29-year-old team ace in the prime of his career on a fallers list, but here we are with Gallen. I was fading Gallen ahead of 2024 largely due to the volume of innings he logged on the way to the World Series last year. Between the regular and post-season, Gallen tossed 243 2/3 innings in 2023 easily crushing his previous career-high of 184. The right-hander started the season well, pitching to a 3.12 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings through May before a hamstring injury took him to the IL. Since the injury, Gallen has been a shell of himself.

In his last 10 outings, he has allowed 27 earned runs with just 44 strikeouts, but most importantly he has not worked beyond the 6th inning in any start. Gallen has scrapped his cutter this season and his usage of his four-seam is down over 3%. By run value, Gallen has had one of the best fastballs in baseball, but instead, he’s leaning into the curve and slider more. While the switch has produced softer contact, it has limited his strikeouts. His strikeout rate is down 4% from last season while his walk rate is up almost 3%. If Gallen continues down the path of less fastball, and more breaking pitches, his Dynasty value should continue to regress.

 

Bobby Miller, SP, LAD

Control and command. Those two words sum up Bobby Miller’s 2024 season. Miller got derailed when he was shut down early in the season with right shoulder inflammation and has yet to regain his footing. Maybe it was to be expected, given that Miller threw 138 2/3 innings last season, the most of his professional career, including 124 1/3 at the MLB level. He averaged 98.9 mph on his four-seam fastball last season, and as James Schiano pointed out on Twitter, it hasn’t gone well for the highest-velocity guys from 2023. Miller has a 7.49 ERA with a 10.6% walk rate, a far cry from the sub-4 ERA, and a 6% walk rate from 2023. He’s not missing bats, and most of the contact he’s allowing has been hard.

We could credit the Dodgers for continuing to let him work through things, but at some point, you have to worry about the psyche of a second-year pitcher who hasn’t faced much adversity in his career. Miller still has long-term value, but 2024 is a wash, and I’d be looking to buy low despite his faller status.

 

Isaac Paredes, 3B, CHC

The power, or lack thereof, of Paredes is one of the most polarizing topics in fantasy baseball. Paredes has consecutive 20-homer seasons and is on pace to reach that level again, but that’s just the surface stats. Under the surface, there is underwhelming batted ball data, most notably an 86.3 mph career-average EV, a sub-30% career hard-hit rate, and a 5.1% barrel rate. His numbers have been well-documented, and now that Paredes is in Chicago, the proverbial “stuff has hit the fan.” Since his trade to the Cubs, Paredes has just three home runs in 24 games with a .161 batting average. If you consider expected home runs over the past two seasons, Paredes faces a minimum of a six-homer projected drop by his ballpark change, and with an already middling batting average, Paredes’ value is on the verge of plummeting even further.

 

Christopher Morel, 3B/OF, TBR

On the opposite side of the Paredes-to-Chicago trade was infielder Christopher Morel. Morel experienced mixed results in the Windy City. He wowed fans with his exciting power and speed but failed to sustain consistent offensive production and faltered defensively. In two full seasons with the Cubs, Morel averaged .241 with 21 homers and eight steals. Morel has an aggressive approach at the plate, and his sub-70% contact rate led to a career strikeout rate approaching 30%. After homering in each of his first two games with the Rays, Morel has struggled to a .171 average with one homers and a 38.2% strikeout rate in August. Hopefully, the Rays can work their voodoo magic on Morel, a player who has the potential to be an impactful bat in fantasy.

 

Honorable Mention

Evan Phillips, RP, LAD

Phillips was the clear closer last year in L.A., successfully converting 24 of his 27 save opportunities while producing a 2.05 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. In 2024, Phillips was 16-for-18 in save chances but seems to have fallen out of favor with Dave Roberts. With Michael Kopech (no I’m not joking) now in the fold, Phillips has been relegated to mid-game work, appearing as early as the fifth inning. With no clear path to save chances, Phillips is merely a mid-tier reliever option despite his track record of success.

Max Meyer, SP, MIA

I’m going to give Meyer a pass, although I am concerned. Meyer is just nine starts into his post-Tommy John career but has yet to regain his previous form. This season, he has a 5.44 ERA and, like Miller, is not missing bats. Opposing hitters are averaging .271 against him with a 90.7 mph average EV, 14.3% barrel rate, and 49% hard-hit rate. The third-overall pick in 2020 has the pedigree and talent, so I’m still optimistic about his long-term outcome.

 

Prospect Faller

Heston Kjerstad, OF, BAL

Having Kjerstad as a faller is 75% about opportunity and 25% about the player. I believe Kjerstad can succeed as a major league hitter with one significant adjustment; he has to chase less. Kjerstad profiles with plenty of swing-and-miss, and he’s not talented enough to sustain a 34% chase rate outside the zone and expect to produce in the majors. Second, hopefully, Kjerstad gets a chance to play somewhere else. I’d be surprised if the O’s move on from Anthony Santander, and Cedric Mullins offer too much defensive value in the outfield. That leaves Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, both with similar power potential, but Cowser is a much more contact-oriented hitter and is starting to show he can hit lefties as well. Kjerstad needs regular PT, and it won’t come in Baltimore.